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SG
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Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

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- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

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- No Guru No Method

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"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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December 31, 2004

Welcome Back...
by Larry Mahnken

The big news yesterday was that Tino Martinez is back in pinstripes.

That's of course, not what the media tried to make the big news yesterday, of course. The big news they tried to push was that the Yankees had completed a trade for Randy Johnson. Of course they haven't yet, and they've tried this one before, so I'm still going to hold off on commenting about it (and boy, do I have comments about it).

But the return of Tino has happened... well, not officially, either, but there's less reason for media hype about it than there is for Johnson.

Anyway, a lot of Yankees fans have an irrational love for Tino. There's nothing wrong with liking Tino, of course, but they freaking love this guy. They cheered him when he came back to New York, which is understandable, but then they cheered him when he hit a homer against the Yankees. And then they cheered him again when he came back last year, every time he came back last year.

This isn't Joe DiMaggio we're talking about here, it's Tino Martinez. They love this guy a little too much, because people have a very selective memory. In his next-to-last game in pinstripes, he hit a two-run homer off of Byung-Hyun Kim to tie Game Four of the World Series, and along with his Grand Slam to win Game One of the 1998 World Series, he's developed a reputation as a "Clutch God".

Never mind that before that Grand Slam in '98, Tino had never done anything for the Yankees in the postseason. Never mind that his homer in Game Four was the only thing he did in the World Series, and they might have won if he'd contributed normally and not hit the homer. Never mind that over the course of his career, he was generally average for a first baseman. Never mind all that, we're dealing with selective memory here. Jason Giambi's never been loved like Tino not because he hasn't done the same things as Tino (ask Pedro), but because the expectations were higher for Giambi, and the Yankees won rings with Tino.

Now Tino's back, and I wonder how many standing ovations he's going to get before the fans get tired of it. I wonder how bad he'll have to play before the fans get tired of him.

Still, I think this is a good move. Tino's a good glove man, and he's not a terrible hitter. He's certainly better than Olerud or Clark, and makes the lineup a little more lefty. On the merits of the move itself, I like it. He'll be overrated and overloved, but he'll be a useful addition to the team. How does this affect the pursuit of Beltran? Not a lick. If they were dropping out of the Beltran sweepstakes, they might have pursued Delgado instead, since they'd need a DH.

Speaking of which, Brian Cashman has said the Yankees aren't necessarily going to go all-out to sign Beltran. Please think again, Cash, they need to go all-out for Beltran. They need to overpay him, if that's what it takes. They need a young, good player at a key position, who plays good defense. They need Carlos Beltran. Give him $18 million if that's what it takes, this is something that the team needs to do to win long-term.

Happy New Year's, everyone. Don't drink and drive, sjohnny lost a close friend to one of those assholes this year.

--posted at 1:02 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 30, 2004

ESPN.com - MLB - Sources: D-Backs, Yanks agree on Big Unit deal
by SG

Although it's not final, and these stories have been jumping the gun all off-season, it looks like the trade has been agreed upon.

The Diamondbacks and Yankees have agreed on a deal that would send Randy Johnson to New York for Javier Vazquez, prospects and cash, major league sources told ESPN.

The paperwork has not yet been submitted to the baseball commissioner's office, but that is the next step for the deal to be finalized.

The Diamondbacks also will get left-handed pitcher Brad Halsey, catching prospect Dioner Navarro and $8 million to $9 million in exchange for the 41-year-old lefty, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reports.

According to Peter Gammons' sources, Arizona will not immediately deal Vazquez to another team, but will continue to talk to interested teams, including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit and Texas.

I'm not surprised that the deal has happened and it's been hashed over to death so I won't say much more on it. I do think this helps the 2005 Yankees, but I worry about the future of this team more and more. I think Vazquez will be a better pitcher next year than any non-Johnson Yankee starter, and wish him well wherever he winds up. I really think Arizona would be smart to try and convince him to stay there, but I think he will end up traded.

How about getting a CF now Mr. Steinbrenner? And a 2B?

In other news, Tino Martinez passed a physical and is expected to be back with the Yankees soon. The latest on Giambi is that he will end up remaining on the team, so if Tino is signed as a backup and defensive replacement I don't have a problem with it. If Giambi can't play, Tino as a starter would be a bad, bad thing. I think it would have been nice to give Andy Phillips a shot, plus he has the added cachet of being able to play all around the infield, but that's just not the Yankees modus operandi.

And Happy New Year to all of Larry's readers. Even you Red Sox fans.

--posted at 2:56 PM by SG / |

Randy Johnson To Whine Like A Bitch Until Someone Trades Him To Yankees
by Larry Mahnken

The lastest:

"I know Randy wants to go, but I’m not just going to ship him away for his sake," said Garagiola. "I've got my own team to think about. And what’s this about him whining like a bitch if we don’t trade him? Is he kidding? He’s been bitching and moaning for the past year. It’s nothing new to us. He’s obsessed with the Yankees. Last month I caught him masturbating to a picture of George Steinbrenner. Yes, I know, it’s disgusting. He could’ve at least gone with Derek Jeter."

--posted at 11:51 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 22, 2004

Death of a Three-Way
by Larry Mahnken

Just like last offseason's A-Rod fiasco, the media's done a pretty poor job covering the Randy Johnson trade. They ran too fast with preliminary reports, trying deperately to be first rather than being accurate. After the Dodgers filed some paperwork regarding the trade early yesterday morning, the media reported that the trade had been sent to the Commissioner's Office, that it was done. If this report was accurate, it would be a mere formality for Selig to approve the trade, so this would have been an appropriate time to evaluate the trade.

Of course, the media had been evaluating the trade ever since the first reports came out about it, even while the teams were denying that the reports were accurate. Hey, it was something to write about, and writing early gave the media a chance to write about it a few dozen times. I can appreciate that.

But in the end, it didn't happen, because the Dodgers weren't happy with how the deal left them. They got some prospects, and moving Shawn Green's big contract out of town freed up some cash, and freed up right field for J.D. Drew, and first base for Hee Seop Choi. They were able to lose the Acevedish Kaz Ishii, and got a decent replacement for Yhency Brazoban in Mike Koplove. And despite his youth and quality, Brad Penny's injury situation made Javier Vazquez a better bet. And therein lies the rub, because in the end Javy didn't want to go to Los Angeles, and when he refused to report to Los Angeles promptly for a physical examination, the Dodgers took the opening and pulled out.

So, that's the end of that. The Dodgers might get back in on the deal if a seperate trade can be worked out to send Vazquez somewhere else and bring Los Angeles something acceptable in return, but the Dodgers don't plan to work the phones on a trade they don't feel they need to make.

It's more likely that the Yankees will find another partner for their menage-a-trois, and I think they will. The fact that the Yankees were able to almost make the trade lends credence to the rumor that Johnson will only accept a trade to the Yankees. The fact that it was Moorad who called the Yankees to restart talks, and not the other way around, indicates that the Diamondbacks are looking to move Johnson out this offseason. This trade fell apart not because the Diamondbacks weren't satisfied, but because the other trade partner, the Dodgers, weren't. One thing it did was lay out the parameters for an acceptable trade from the Diamondbacks' point of view. The Yankees are in better position for this trade now than they were before the failed attempt was agreed to. They now know that this deal can happen, and they can get their man. Now all they need is a new third team.

And I think they'll find one. You may wonder why other teams would want to help the Yankees, but the way they're viewing it, they're helping themselves -- the Yankees are going to find some team to work with, and that team will get the benefits of the deal (remember, the Dodgers were the team that made out the best in the previous proposal), and if you sit out, you'll get nothing. So, it's in every team's best interest to try and get their fingers in the pot, and get something out of it for themselves.

Of course the trade might not happen at all, that's always a possibility. But unlike the A-Rod trade last year, which came down the Boston's refusal to pay for A-Rod's contract, this just comes down to players, and they're obviously out there. What's most puzzling of all is that the Diamondbacks were making out the worst of the three teams in the previous trade, and will likely do so again in whatever form the trade ultimately takes. They seem to be convinced that they will contend this year, but at the same time don't want to keep Johnson around. So they made a deal which gives them talent for 2005, but hurts them in the long-term. They'd really be better off trading Johnson for Duncan and Navarro, and spinning Vazquez off for prospects than they would be making the type of deal they eventually will.

But then, the Diamondbacks' front office has never been the most skilled in the game. They've succeeded in the past in large part through luck and the willingness to spend money to add proven players. On-field success doesn't necessarily indicate front office skill, nor does on-field failure necessarily indicate a lack of it.

So, the Yankees are stuck without the Big Unit for now, and will have to go back to work to try and get things patched together.

At the same time, they're working on filling the black hole of defensive ineptitude that has been center field. Carlos Beltran and Scott Boras met with Steinbrenner yesterday, the first major step of the courtship. If the Yanks can snag Beltran, they'll be making a huge addition to their team. Simply getting Bernie Williams' glove off the field can mean four or more extra wins a year for the team.

But there is a disturbing possibility. With J.D. Drew off the market, there are no great options left in center. There are no great options left for starting pitching, either. If they can't get Beltran and they can't get Johnson, they may be left with their pants down, and suddenly not look nearly as strong in 2005 as we were all anticipating.

--posted at 1:22 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 21, 2004

Garagiola counters report on trade: D-Backs GM says paperwork is still on his desk
by Larry Mahnken

It doesn't matter if you're accurate, it only matters if you're first.

--posted at 4:43 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 18, 2004

New York Daily News: At last, Randy Bronx bound!
by SG

Some changes from the earlier report include Kaz Ishii coming to the Bronx, and no money changing hands. Shawn Green still has to waive his no-trade clause, but Moorad is his former agent so it's likely that he will do so.

I still don't like giving up both Navarro and Duncan, but there's no question this makes the 2005 Yankees better. I will miss Javier Vazquez, and wish him well wherever he ends up. There are rumors that he will be spun off to the White Sox for Konerko and Garland. If he remains in LA, I would guess he will outperform both Wright and Pavano next year.

--posted at 11:46 AM by SG / |

December 17, 2004

The Johnson Trade... Maybe?
by Larry Mahnken

I'll make some in-depth comments on the potential Johnson trade as soon as it's official. There seems to be some hang-ups right now, partly that Johnson might not waive his no-trade clause (wouldn't the New York media look foolish then!), and that the deal was actually contingent on the Dodgers resigning Adrian Beltre (which makes sense -- with Beltre, they could play Kent at first, without they need him at third, so they need Green at first). So this may be old news.

If the deal was contingent on Beltre, but Johnson's willing to waive his no-trade, then I have little doubt that the Yankees will get Johnson before spring training -- at the least, this proposed trade sets the framework for an acceptable trade from the Diamondbacks' perspective. But we'll see.

Added Thought: If this trade doesn't fall apart over the weekend, then it's pretty much a done deal, I'd say.

--posted at 7:14 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 16, 2004

Yanks reach a deal for Randy
by Larry Mahnken

The Yankees would receive the 41-year-old Johnson in the deal while sending pitcher Javier Vazquez and two minor-league prospects, catcher Dioner Navarro and third baseman Eric Duncan, to the Dodgers, according to an Arizona source. The Dodgers would send pitchers Brad Penny and Yhency Brazoban and outfielder/first baseman Shawn Green to Arizona to complete the deal.

I can live with this deal. The Yankees give up a couple of prospects that could be good but probably won't get a shot in pinstripes. It's not a great deal for the Yankees, but it's solid.

--posted at 9:12 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Amateur Hour
by Larry Mahnken

The Hardball Times and I were dissed by MLB.com writer Spencer Fordin a couple of days ago, in particular for my Productive Outs article. Fordin seems to dismiss my article because of where it was published and who wrote it, not for its content. Whatever.

One point that he makes that does ring true was that my comment at the end of the article: "Buster Olney either knows he's wrong, and doesn't have the guts to admit it, or he's a fool." was amateur and unecessary. He's absolutely right.

I shouldn't have written that, and I wince every time I go back and read it. I was looking for a tidy ending to the article, and wrote that. I suppose an editor normally would have caught it and lifted it out, but Aaron and the other editors generally don't edit our content, just typos and formatting, etc.

If Buster is perchance reading this (fat chance), I'd like to apologize. Your theory about Productive Outs was wrong, but I was wrong to insult you.

--posted at 1:33 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 14, 2004

ESPN.com - MLB - D-Backs try to revive Unit talks with Yankees
by Larry Mahnken

Jeff Moorad, the Diamondbacks' incoming chief executive officer, called Yankees president Randy Levine, a baseball official said on condition of anonymity.

Moorad asked if anything was new on Johnson but did not make a new proposal, and the discussion ended there, the official said.

If this is true, then Johnson should be a Yankee relatively soon.

--posted at 10:20 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

I think Yankees fans can identify with how Red Sox fans must feel today. We went through something similar a year ago. It wasn't quite the same, of course, but it was quite a shock.

When Andy Pettitte signed with the Astros, it stunned most of New York. Obviously, we knew that there was a mutual interest between Pettitte and Houston, but it seemed like Andy's love of the Yankees and the Yankees' love of Pettitte would overcome that, and he'd be back.

But apparently the Yankees' love of Pettitte wasn't as strong as we thought it was, and they made a tepid pursuit of him. We waited for him to be signed every day, until the one day when the news came out that he wasn't coming back, he was going home.

It didn't kill the Yankees' rotation, though it did leave them bereft of lefty starting pitching. I think it would be silly to blame the Yankees' failure in the ALCS on that, but I've digressed quite a bit now...

Yesterday Red Sox nation found out that it's very likely that they're going to lose Pedro Martinez to the New York Mets. I'm no fan of the Mets, but they've done the Yankees a great favor, even though it's going to cost the Bombers some back page headlines. They've taken from the Red Sox one of the best pitchers in baseball, and while the Yankees have historically done quite well against that pitcher, there's no way you can say that this isn't good for the Yankees.

Boston will almost certainly turn to Matt Clement to fill their #2 pitching spot now, but even if they get him, Clement is no Pedro. The Yankees' rotation matches up pretty solidly against Boston's now, and if the Yankees can sign Carlos Beltran I have to call them the favorites to win the AL East again. Even with the mediocre moves they've made in the rotation, they haven't really gotten any worse in that aspect of the game. By losing Pedro, the Red Sox get worse.

Still, Boston's not going away. They'll use that money on Clement, they'll direct some of it towards Edgar Renteria and Jason Varitek. They'll come back strong in 2005, they'll be as tough a team to beat as any other in baseball. But they'll be a little bit worse than they could have been, and for the Yankees that's good news.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 13, 2004

by Larry Mahnken

From Sons of Sam Horn:

Babelfish translation of this article

Quote:
Another Latin torpedo boat in Boston? To find a substitute for Trimming Goatherd is one of the great priorities that have the Red Averages at the moment By RED ENRIQUE

Santo Domingo (AP) - Besides to retain to the Pedro thrower Martinez and the receiver Jason Varitek, to find a substitute for the torpedo boat Trimming Goatherd she is one of the great priorities that at the moment have the Red Averages of Boston. The substitute could leave the own rows of the world-wide champions, taking into account a conversation between John Henry, proprietor of the Red Averages, and the Dominican torpedo boat Hanley Ramirez, the best one I prospect of the organization by three years followed.

"Henry asked to me that in where I saw myself playing in the 2005 and said to him that in Pawtucket, our triple branch A", Ramirez said to the AP.

"Pero he said me that it go to the primaverales training prepared with the idea that could be the regular torpedo boat in Fenway Park", Ramirez added. "Me I laughed nervous and moved by those palabras".

The conversation between Henry and Ramirez took place Wednesday, when a mission of the Red Averages visited Dominican Republic to attend the celebration of the first anniversary of the development academy that runs the organization here.

Ramirez, of 20 years, is projected by the Red Averages like the regular torpedo boat of the club for the 2006, but the game of Nomar Garciaparra and Orlando Goatherd, plus the great work of the Dominican one in the winter league, could accelerate the process.

After two years of discharges and losses, in the land and outside this one, Ramirez it managed to put together all in the 2004. In the summer, Ramirez divided their time between the leagues of Sarasota (a) and Portland (AA), batting 310 of combined form. He was the Player of the Year of the Red Averages in Sarasota, member of the equipment All Stars of Liga of the East and I prospect number one of Boston. He integrated themselves to the Tigers of the Licey from the first day of the winter season and was selected the Player of the Week in the first seven days of action.

An annoyance in the back removed to the player of action in happened the two weeks of the winter league. "Ya I am recovered and ready to play when the Licey me necesite", Ramirez said, who bats 257 with five home runs and 16 races towed in the winter league.

--posted at 4:10 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

You could look at it this way:

- Carl Pavano (3.00 ERA in 2004, 4.21 Career ERA)replaces Jon Lieber (4.33 ERA in 2004, 4.20 Career ERA)
- Jaret Wright (3.28 ERA in 2004, 5.09 Career ERA) replaces Esteban Loaiza (5.71 ERA in 2004, 4.70 Career ERA) and Jose Contreras (5.50 ERA in 2004, 4.85 Career ERA)
- Tony Womack (.735 OPS in 2004, .681 Career OPS) replaces Miguel Cairo (.763 OPS in 2004, .692 Career OPS)

In all three of the moves the Yankees have made, they are getting essentially the same production as they did the year before from the same position, and at both the pitching positions they're getting appreciably younger.

Of course, the Yankees paid about $11 million in total for that production last season, and they'll be paying close to $19 million for it in 2005 -- that's before paying the luxury tax, too. Inflation's a bitch.

That's not to say that the Yankees could have paid $11 million for the old players, either. Jon Lieber would have cost about $8 million to keep, Miguel Cairo would have cost $2 million, and Esteban Loaiza would have cost them four or five wins. But that's not the point, that they're paying more for the same production, but rather that they could have spent this money better. The market appears to be valuing these mediocre pitchers at about the level the Yankees are paying them at, but that doesn't mean they're really worth it.

The only real ace on the market appears to be Pedro Martinez, who had a 3.90 ERA last year -- the highest of his career, and has long been saddled with health concerns. But that ERA was largely the result of four starts where he gave up seven or more earned runs and had an ERA of 12.46. His ERA in his other 29 starts was 2.95, and he pitched 217 innings. He's still Pedro.

He would have cost more than Pavano, but is almost certain to outperform him over the length of his contract, and he'll give the Yankees what they so desperately want -- an ace. But it looks like Martinez is likely to go back to Boston, although the deal isn't finished yet.

If the Yankees sign Carlos Beltran, I think they'll win 100 games again and the AL East. I think they'll do better against the Red Sox in the regular season and playoffs next year than they did this year, I think they'll go back to the World Series. If they don't sign Beltran, they should still make the playoffs, but I think it'll be tighter, and they probably won't beat out Boston.

According to this New York Times article, the Yankees are just beginning their courtship of Carlos Beltran, and they're also not particularly interested in trading Javier Vazquez or Kevin Brown. I don't necessarily believe either of the last two statements, but it could be an indication that they're resigned to the likelihood that they'll be unable to trade for Randy Johnson or dump Brown without paying his entire salary and getting nothing in return. And as much as I'd like to have RJ, I view both of those developments as positives.

--posted at 1:10 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 10, 2004

So, what's next?
by SG

Trying to get the bad taste out of my mouth of the Womack/Wright signings, I figured I'd look at some of the rumors that are floating around about other potential Yankee moves.

From this article in the 12/9 edition of the New York Post (I know, it's the Post, so it's about as reliable as Gammons):

While focusing on upgrading their rotation, the Yankees haven't forgotten about Carlos Beltran.

With Jason Giambi's pinstriped future cloudy at best, the Yankees not offering John Olerud, Tony Clark and Travis Lee arbitration, the best first basemen on the free-agent market are Richie Sexson and Carlos Delgado. However, an industry source told The Post yesterday that those sluggers aren't in the Yankee plans.

"That money is going to be used for Beltran," the source said.

Obviously, this would be a huge signing for the Yankees. With rumors rampant that the Angels will be signing Steve Finley, that drops one potential competitor for Beltran's services out of the mix. Beltran is supposedly seeking a 10 year deal, which would make him 38 at the end of the contract. As a player who grew up idolizing Bernie Williams, I'd just hope that he doesn't age the way Bernie did. He does have better baseball instincts than Bernie, so he may age better, but I'd probably try to sign him for five or six years maximum.

Bringing back Tino Martinez, who left after the 2001 World Series and was replaced by Giambi, would be a popular move for Yankee fans, but he was 37 Tuesday and there are questions as to how much Martinez has left. He batted .262 with 23 homers and 76 RBIs for the Devil Rays a year ago.

It wouldn't be popular with this Yankee fan. Like the blurb says, Tino is now 37, and as one of Torre's "guys", I could see him playing full time, contributing a .320/.420 line while playing solid defense. I don't know that I'd throw big money at Delgado either, and Sexson is not attractive to me as a right-handed power hitter coming off injury. The team needs to get more left-handed on offense IMO, especially if Giambi is unable to play or is gone. There is very little else available once you get past Sexson and Delgado. I'd still consider having Bernie try and learn 1B, but I don't think that's likely.

Carl Pavano and Eric Milton are looking for a little more than the Yankees want to spend, but the differences aren't wide enough to kill deals. In fact, after believing Pavano was going to remain a Marlin, the Yankees now think they have a chance to sign the right-hander, who according to sources has been offered a $40 million deal for four years.

The left-handed Milton is looking for a three-year pact worth between $24 million and $26 million.

I really hope Milton stays greedy and winds up signing with Anaheim or Detroit or something. As far as Pavano, I'm not really enamored of him, but I think he'd be a better signing than Milton, even at a few million more per year. I still think Matt Clement would be a better signing than either one of them, especially since he'd be cheaper, but Yankees apparently have concerns about his makeup. Must be that facial hair of his. As much as the thought initially repulsed me, signing Pedro Martinez may be the best thing the Yankees can do. He'll be a little more expensive than the rest of these guys, but he'll be a lot better.

Then there is Randy Johnson. The White Sox-Yankee-Diamondback three-way rumor gained fuel yesterday but the Yankees said they haven't heard from Arizona in more than a week.

The three way rumor is the Yankees sending Vazquez to the White Sox, the White Sox sending Paul Konerko, and John Garland to Arizona, and some Yankee prospects also going to Arizona. I still dislike giving up Vazquez, but if Pavano is signed, he could fill that slot. The Yankees are also probably looking to move Kevin Brown to someone, probably for nothing of value and eating a good portion of his contract. Too bad they couldn't make a Brown + prospects + cash trade for Marcus Giles, but they just don't have the chips to do it.

Also, the Yankees added a lefty to their bullpen with the signing of 35-year-old Goo Dae-seong, a Korean pitcher who's been pitching in the Japanese leagues. He's been a mediocre starter, but supposedly has a tricky delivery that will be effective against lefties. The Yankees signed him for 2 years, $3.5 million.

Goo ended his career in the Japanese League with unsatisfactory numbers of 24 wins and 34 losses, five wins and 10 losses this year, and an ERA of 4.39, but the Yankees evaluated Goo to be an effective pitcher against lefty batters since he steps to the mound while covering the ball behind his back. Jo said, “The Yankees hopes Goo will handle lefty batters such as Boston’s David Ortiz.”

This move is annoying to me, best case he's Mike Myers, worst case, he's the Run Fairy™ part deux. He also makes it that much harder for Halsey to break in in the bullpen. Halsey owned lefties in his brief major league stint, I'd rather have him in that spot. This also precludes the signing of Steve Kline most likely, which doesn't necessarily bother me all that much. As it is, the bullpen is getting awfully crowded.

Rivera
Gordon
Felix Rodriguez
Quantrill
Karsay
Stanton
Goo Dea-seong

This is before they re-sign Smoke & Mirrors™, whom they want to retain, and have to offer a contract by 12/20 to do so. They do need a long reliever, as the rest of the pen are primarilyy short relievers. Also, with Colter Bean finally getting added to the 40 man roster, I am hopeful he gets a chance to show what he can do in the majors at some point this season. Cashman has made noise about a twelve man pitching staff, which doesn't make much sense. A bench of Flaherty, Sierra, Womack or some other backup infielder, and either Tino or some other backup 1B is ridiculously limited and thin.

I fear that Gordon will be traded, due to his disappointing postseason and the acquisition of Felix Rodriguez, who is not in Gordon's league.

There's still a lot of roster shuffling remaining, so let's hope that the first two terrible signings will be forgotten by some smarter signings and/or trades in the coming months.

--posted at 12:03 AM by SG / |

December 9, 2004

Blast From The Past--A $1000 Giant Mistake
by Anonymous

Would a thousand dollars rewrite baseball history?

Looking at history, one cannot help being amazed at how seemingly inconsequential occurrences can shape the future in ways that nobody would ever expect. The world today may well not have happened had it not been for what happened on October 31, 1517. It was that date when Catholic cleric, Martin Luther, enraged by the Vatican's selling of "indulgences" (a sort of "get out of Purgatory free" card), nailed 95 points of protest on a church door in Wittenberg. From that one act sprang the Protestant Reformation, which lead the way out of the Dark Ages to the Renaissance. From there, humanity ushered in the Industrial Revolution that lead up to the world of today.

The Yankees spent $1000 and possibly changed the course of both American and National League history. A young Eddie Ford had two choices before him. Should he sign with the New York Giants or the New York Yankees? If Ford signed with the National League Giants, he would have been given a bonus of $6000. If Ford inked a contract with the New York Yankees, his bonus would be $7000. The Giants would not budge on their offer so Ford became the property of the New York Yankees. Between the time Ford threw his first pitch of the 1950 season until he threw his final ball of the of the 1967 campaign the Yankees would win 12 pennants, the New York Giants would win three. Over that stretch the Bronx Bombers would cop eight world championships meanwhile the Giants would win one. Yes, the Yankees had Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra and other greats dot their roster but championships are won and lost 60'6" from home plate. Over the course of Eddie "Whitey" Ford's career, the New York/San Francisco Giants would win nine World Series' games -- Ford would win 10.

It's amazing what you can buy for $1000 dollars.

Equally amazing was that Whitey Ford reached the big leagues at all. He didn't even look like a pitcher. Pitchers were supposed to be big men with scowling faces and blazing fastballs. Hitters were supposed to quake in fear as the snarling, unshaven Vic Raschi would challenge hitters with high heat. They were to be like Allie Reynolds who terrified batters with white hot fastballs that went from light to shadow in late afternoons at Yankee Stadium. Ford was all of 5'10 170 lb. and looked more choirboy than anything.

Several scouts looked in on a young Whitey Ford and focused on superficial things; he was too small, he lacked an overpowering fastball, he was not a prospect. In doing so they neglected the very things that separates the great pitchers from the merely good. Young Ford was not a thrower, but a pitcher. Ford knew the art behind the athleticism. He knew how to get hitters out. He hated to lose and had the guts of a burglar.

Ford enjoyed a stellar minor league career and he knew it too. As the Yankees were struggling to shake the Boston Red Sox down the stretch in 1949, Ford took it upon himself to call Yankees' manager Casey Stengel to offer his services. Stengel surprised, declined. However Stengel had a fondness for players with confidence in their abilities and so he was invited to Spring Training in 1950.

There was one thing though, that Ford had to learn before he enjoyed big league success.

This lesson was taught to Ford during the first Spring Training of the 1950's. His attitude in camp caused other players to nickname him "The Fresh Young Busher." Since Ford's approach to pitching was successful in the minor leagues, he felt it would in the majors too.

Not so.

Yankees pitching coach Jim Turner had asked crafty southpaw Eddie Lopat to tutor the brash youngster. Both Lopat and Ford were the same size and neither threw blazing heat. However Ford was a minor league success, whereas Lopat, who was 82-70 at that point of his career (51-49 over four years in Chicago on teams that did not finish above .500 once during his tenure there), was a major league success. Lopat knew how to get major league hitters out. Ford thought he knew and was not open to coaching.

A quick trip to Kansas City focused his mind on the idea that there were still things to be learned.

When called up later that season, Ford went 9-1.

Stengel handled young Ford carefully spotting him against weaker teams. Impressed with his savvy, Stengel decided to throw Ford into the heat of battle. In mid September, the Yankees were in first place..barely. The Detroit Tigers were a half game behind the Bronx Bombers, and were slated for a crucial mid-September showdown in Detroit. Stengel had now developed confidence in Ford. So despite being on the road, playing in a bandbox ballpark, the Yankee manager gave the rookie the ball to start game three of that series.

Ford did not disappoint.

In a tightly pitched ballgame, Ford held the Tigers offense in check, the score 1-1 heading into the top of the ninth. The Yankees' offense then exploded for seven runs. Detroit would hang tough, but the Yankees would go on to clinch the American League flag by three games over Detroit.

Two things now loomed in Ford's future, the World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies and military service. The Yankees raced ahead 3-0 in the Fall Classic. Stengel, mindful of Ford's upcoming hitch in the military, coupled with his superlative rookie season, gave him the start for Game Four. Ford threw eight and two-thirds innings of shutout ball. With two on and two out Ford got the final out on a pop fly to outfielder Gene Woodling.

Woodling dropped it.

That error and a hit lead to a couple of unearned runs, so Stengel brought out his favorite secret weapon: Allie Reynolds. Throwing into the stadium shadows Reynolds went called strike one, two, and three.

Suffice it to say, Stengel could hardly wait until Ford returned from the military.

From "The Fresh Young Busher" to "Chairman of the Board"

Whitey Ford's return to the Yankees in 1953 could not have come at a more opportune time. Staff ace Vic Raschi's arthritic knees had limited his turns in the rotation. Ford stepped right in and won 18 games as the Yankees again won the pennant. Stengel decided to pitch Ford in the fourth game of the World Series against the Brooklyn Dodgers. He did not last long and was replaced in the second inning after giving up three runs in the first. Stengel again handed him the ball for Game Six and pitched extremely well and then relieved by Allie Reynolds late in the game to nail down the World Championship for the Yankees.

Ford pitched well in 1954 winning 16 games. However the Cleveland Indians won 111 games and the Yankees would not represent the American League in the World Series. Vic Raschi was dealt to the Cardinals that year and the mantle of staff ace now fell to Ford. In 1955, Ford started the season on fire winning six of his first seven starts, including three shutouts. Ford won 18 games that season as manager Stengel would hold out Ford to pitch against teams they were trying to outrace for the American League flag. The Yankees clinched the pennant in the season's final week. Just as in 1953, they would face the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Ford was shaky in the first game of the World Series at Yankee Stadium, but got the win, pitching eight innings. The Yankees won the second game and headed to Ebbets Field in Brooklyn where the Dodgers won all three games. The series shifted back to the Bronx in a must-win game for the Bronx Bombers. Ford was given the start and went the distance winning 5-1. It went for naught as Dodgers' southpaw Johnny Podres twirled a shutout sending Brooklyn into a frenzy. During the offseason the Yankees toured Japan. In a game against the Tokyo Giants--after a night of revelry--produced a play that would have been a classic baseball blooper. The Giants had a man on second and Ford wanted to try a pickoff play. Unfortunately Gil McDougald who was playing shortstop and Billy Martin who was at second base--still recovering from the previous evening's festivities--didn't see the signal. Ford whirled around and fired a strike to second base that bounced off the forehead of a large Japanese umpire (since no one was covering second). The umpire barely blinked. McDougald went to check on the umpire to see if he had been hurt. The umpire regarded McDougald impassively, never changing expression. Apprised of this, McDougald went to the mound to inform Ford, telling him: "Whitey, that's the [expletive]ing tip-off on you. When you can hit a guy dead center from sixty feet and you don't even leave a mark on him. Pal, can you imagine what it's like to play in the infield behind you?"

1956 brought 19 wins and another pennant for the Yankees. On September 16, in Chicago's Comiskey Park, the White Sox Billy Pierce faced off against Ford. After ten innings the game was knotted at 1-1. In the top of the eleventh Mickey Mantle stroked a solo home run and Ford came out to finish what he started. The final out of that game brought along with it the American League pennant. A young 22 year old Baltimore Orioles rookie foiled Ford's attempt at his first 20 win season, shutting out the Yankees 1-0 in Ford's final start of the regular season.

Along with the flag came yet another Fall Classic against the Brooklyn Dodgers. Ford got the start in Game One but tiny Ebbets Field was a graveyard for lefties of every stripe. After three innings, Ford had to call it a day. The series shifted back to the Bronx with the Yankees down 2-0. Yankee Stadium, unlike Ebbets Field, was a boon to southpaws and Ford was given the start in Game Three as Stengel hoped to stop the bleeding. In the first two games the Yankee bullpen had to pitch 14 innings. The Yankees needed Ford to go deep into the game or the pitching staff could be in serious jeopardy.

Ford went the distance giving the Yankees their first win, and the bullpen a much needed rest.

The Yankees' Don Larsen pitched a perfect game in Game Five of the series. In Game Seven, Yankee sophomore righthander Johnny Kucks tossed a shutout at Ebbets Field, giving Ford his third World Series ring.

The spring of 1957 was bitter for Ford. In an April game against the Washington Senators he injured his arm after warming up too quickly after a long sixth inning by the Yankee offense. His next start against the Red Sox caused the pain to reappear and an early May start against the White Sox did him in. The doctor prescribed rest. Ford would win just 11 games that season. The Yankees won the pennant and faced the Milwaukee Braves. Ford defeated Warren Spahn in Game one, and shut out in Game Five by Lew Burdette. The Yankees fell in seven games.

The clouds hovering over Ford cleared to partly sunny skies. The Yankees were eager to avenge themselves on the Braves, but had to reach the World Series first (and hoping the Braves would do likewise). Ford had a magical run in July throwing a trifecta of shutouts. On August 8, Ford threw his seventh shutout of the year against the Red Sox. A couple of days later, Stengel called him in to relieve and Ford reinjured his arm. His shutout against the Red Sox would be his fourteenth and final win of 1958. The Yankees again won the American League pennant and, again, faced the Milwaukee Braves in the World Series. The Yankees had their revenge in seven games but it was not Ford's finest hour. He did not win in three starts and posted a series ERA of 4.11.

Nothing went right for the Yankees in 1959. An epidemic of injuries swept the Yankees early in the season and the Bronx Bombers could not get on track. Ford managed to win 16 games, but that seemed irrelevant unless it was 16 wins in a pennant winning season. The following season Ford's injury bug returned for a time. However Ford's shoulder got better just in time to climax an awesome pennant drive as the Yankees won their final 15 games. Ford for his part won his final three starts and seemed primed for an awesome World Series. Casey Stengel had a decision to make. Ford was hot, but his injury woes over the last few seasons were a concern. In what might have been the pivotal decision in the World Series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Stengel decided to start, not Whitey Ford in Game One, but Art Ditmar. Ford was unbeatable at Yankee Stadium and they wanted to keep Ford in reserve until Game Three. That would mean Ford could only pitch two, not three games in the Fall Classic. Ford threw shutouts in Games Three and Six but the Yankees lost Game Seven on a ninth inning home run by Bill Mazeroski.

The March To Cooperstown

Changes swept the Yankee organization after the 1960 season. Gone was general manager George Weiss and field boss Casey Stengel was replaced by Ralph Houk. This would mark a change for Ford. Instead of being held out to face the toughest teams, Ford would now pitch every fourth day. That, combined with his best health in years produced an awesome season. Ford would go 25-4 easily winning the Cy Young Award. However it was the home run hitting exploits of Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle that garnered all the headlines.

The Yankees again won the pennant.

The regular season may have belonged to Maris and Mantle, but the Fall Classic belonged to Whitey Ford. Ford won two games and, as he did in 1960, and again did not surrender a single run. It was the second of Babe Ruth's records to fall in 1961. Maris beat the home run record, but Ford topped Ruth's record of consecutive shutout innings in the World Series. Ford later quipped that it was not a good year for Babe Ruth and commissioner Ford Frick had already used up his only asterisk on Roger Maris.

Injuries resurfaced in 1962 for Ford. After pitching seven no-hit innings against the Los Angeles Angels, Ford strained his arm and was out for a month. Still Ford finished 17-8. Ford would get three starts in the series against the San Francisco Giants winning one, losing one and getting a no decision. However Ralph Terry pitched a shutout in Game Seven and Whitey Ford would win his last World Championship. 1963 didn't start well as Ford went through Spring Training with a sore arm. Ford was now 34 and some might have wondered whether athletic age was catching up with him. These thoughts were not dispelled when he opened the campaign 0-2. Ford quickly rebounded winning ten of eleven, after his one loss in that run he rattled off twelve straight and then five of his last six, finishing the season 24-7. Along with that triumph came another pennant and an old-new foe in the Fall Classic, the Dodgers, the Los Angeles Dodgers. However he faced up against Sandy Koufax twice, losing twice as the Dodgers swept the series.

1964 was a roller coaster ride for the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers were holding their own until an August injury to Ford threw the pitching staff into disarray. However Ford came back firing on all cylinders and the Yankees rebounded to capture the pennant.

It would be Whitey Ford's last one.

Despite the strong finish, there was something very wrong with Whitey Ford. He pitched Game One of the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals and was hit hard.

He would never pitch in another World Series game.

Without Ford, the Yankees would lose the series in seven games.

Ford wasn't getting blood circulation to his left shoulder and often lost feeling in his fingers. He once had to use a small spray bottle full of warm water on his left hand so he could feel the ball. He was later disallowed from using it as an opposing manager complained he was doctoring the ball. Ford snapped that if he needed to cheat to beat the complaining manager's team, he'd retire. Ford would win 16 games in 1965 and just two in both 1966 and 1967 and would indeed do just that, retired.

The Giants could always take solace in the fact they saved $1000.

Driving a Ford

Whitey Ford would lead the American League in wins three times (1955, 1961 and 1963).
Whitey Ford was named to eight All Star Teams.
Whitey Ford won a pair of ERA crowns in 1956 and 1958.
Whitey Ford's records for World Series wins (10) and most consecutive shutout innings in World Series play still stand.
Ford's 236 wins as a Yankee are still the team record.
Ford's .690 career winning percentage is second highest in the 20th century behind another Yankee (Spud Chandler --.717)
Ford's .690 career winning percentage is tied for second all time in baseball history. Bob Caruthers also had a .690 winning percentage (218-99) in the 19th century.
Spud Chandler and Bob Caruthers however are not in the Hall of Fame.
Whitey Ford and Mickey Mantle were inducted together into the Hall of Fame in 1974.
Ford also owns team records in both shutouts (45) and strike outs (1956).

--posted at 9:32 AM by Anonymous / |

December 8, 2004

Out With the Old, In With the Crap
by Larry Mahnken

When George Steinbrenner got suspended in the early 90's for paying a gambler to dig up dirt on Dave Winfield (a noble endeavor, if ever there was one!), Gene Michael was given free rein over the organization. He built the team up as he saw fit, and by 1993, only three seasons after having the worst record in the American League, the Yankees were challenging the Blue Jays for first place all year.

Michael had put together his team based not on reputations and tools, but performance. The Yankees lineups in the 90's were built around the sabermetric principle of getting on base -- that's not to say that they were a sabermetric organization, but rather that they grasped one of the key principles of the theory, that the most important thing for an offensive player to do is not make an out.

As the century rolled over, and the A's became an openly sabermetric team, many looked at the Yankees and pointed out that they had been doing many of the same things already. To Michael Kay, that meant that they A's were copying the Yankees, because to Michael Kay, that's the way the world works. To some statheads, that meant the Yankees were a sabermetric organization. Well, they weren't quite, but they were not that far removed. To the Yankees, performance mattered, which absurdly enough, doesn't seem to be the case for a lot of teams.

If that's still the case for the Yankees, they've developed a severe case of myopia. To kick off the free agent season, they've made two ludicrous signings, Jaret Wright and Tony Womack. And they paid good money for this, too.

Of course these signings are going to be lauded in the media. And not just the New York media, but around the country, where analysts are often just as myopic as, oh, let's say the Mets. And here's why:

2004:
Jaret Wright: 15-8, 3.28 ERA
Tony Womack: .307, 91 Runs Scored, and he's a smallish middle infielder, so he must be a good defensive player!

And here's why they aren't good signings:

2003:
Jaret Wright: 2-5, 7.35 ERA, 5.12 DIPS
Tony Womack: .226, .558 OPS -- .415 OPS with THE ROCKIES!!!

2002:
Jaret Wright: 2-3, 15.71 ERA, 6.50 DIPS
Tony Womack: .271, .678 OPS

2001:
Jaret Wright: 2-2, 6.52 ERA, 5.05 DIPS
Tony Womack: .266, .652 OPS

Both of these players had the best years of their career last season, and it wasn't even close. Wright's best ERA before last season was 4.38 in 90.1 innings in his rookie season. He hasn't cracked 4.70 otherwise. Womack's career year last year still only mustered a .734 OPS, he's only reached .700 two other times -- .700 with Pittsburgh in 1997 and .702 with the Dbacks in 1999. That's it. Wright has a career 5.09 ERA, Womack has a career .681 OPS, and no, Womack's not a good second baseman.

Even if Womack, at 35, somehow repeated his 2004 next year, he wouldn't be adding anything to the Yankees, and while at 29 it's possible that Jaret Wright has found himself, it's more likely that Leo Mazzone got to him. Now Mel Stottlemyre gets to him.

The one non-negative that I can see from the Womack signing is that when he inevitably doesn't hit, Torre will almost be forced to give Robinson Cano a chance to play, and that may well pay huge dividends for them in the long haul.

If these signings are going to be the cornerstones of the Yankees' 2004-05 offseason, then it's going to be a long season in the Bronx. They'll be depending on a lot of things that went wrong last year going right next year. If they can pull off a Randy Johnson trade and sign Carlos Beltran, they should be stronger going into the season, but with Wright and likely Milton forming the creamy filling of their rotation, they're going to need the new deep bullpen they're assembling, and they'll probably be winning and losing a lot of slugfests.

The money they've thrown at Womack and Wright and that they're likely to throw at Milton, would have been better spent on someone like Matt Clement, or if they wanted to spend a little more, Pedro. Coming into 2004 they looked to have a rotation that could dominate the game, but it didn't work out. The 2005 rotation's upside looks to be that the middle of the rotation might not get the crap beaten out of it by everyone.

This is not how you spend $200 million wisely. This is not how Gene Michael would have done things. I suspect that it's not how Brian Cashman wanted to do things, either.

--posted at 6:08 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Yanks sign Womack, Wright
by SG

I am stupified. Two horrible signings IMO. Tony Womack has a career .319 OBP and was rated as -13 RAA defensively last year at 2B. I'm sure Torre will make him the everyday starter and leadoff man though. Two years? $4 million dollars? Miguel Cairo was not offered arbitration either.

Jaret Wright has a career 5.09 ERA. He did have a good year last year, but that was under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone, and in the National League. I don't see a repeat of that, certainly not under Mel "Career Killer" Stottlemyre. The rumor is that Wright will be getting Kris Benson money. This signing makes the Benson signing look like sheer brilliance.

This offseason has been a nightmare so far. This Yankee run had to end at some point, but the Yankees are doing everything they can to speed it along. In addition, they are loading up with people who not only could stink, but will be difficult to root for. Tony Womack, the guy who helped Arizona beat Mo? Jaret Wright, the punk from Cleveland who was always throwing at the Yankees?

This is very disappointing news. I just need to hear about the Milton signing now, and I can go jump off a bridge.

--posted at 1:56 AM by SG / |

December 7, 2004

A Difference of Opinion
by Larry Mahnken

My steroids article.

--posted at 5:45 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 2, 2004

Giambi admitted taking steroids
by Larry Mahnken

Hmmm.

--posted at 6:08 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 1, 2004

Randy Johnson to New York
by Larry Mahnken

ESPN's Peter Gammons is reporting that a deal sending Randy Johnson to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez could be completed next week.

Boston Dirt Dogs is reporting that the Diamondbacks will receive Vazquez, Eric Duncan, another player (possibly Tom Gordon) and about $4 million for each of the next three seasons to cover Vazquez's contract. The Diamondbacks may then look to move Vazquez to another team since they believe he would demand a trade next winter.

What an unbelievably stupid trade for the Yankees, if it goes down like this. I wouldn't trade Vazquez for Johnson straight-up, because I think that Vazquez is very very likely to turn it around, and Johnson has knee problems and is 41. R.J. is of course more likely to have a dominant season than Vazquez next year, but Vazquez will likely have more value over the next three seasons than Johnson.

Throw in Duncan, a great young prospect who I think could fetch someone useful by himself at the trade deadline if he has a strong first half at AA this year, and it becomes a very difficult trade to accept. If Gordon's part of the deal, it's quite probably the most idiotic trade they've made since Steinbrenner returned.

The curse of the ALCS is that it's overshadowed everything that happened in the regular season. Their rotation struggled all year, and everyone expected it to cost them in October. But the rotation stepped it up in the playoffs, and the only game the starting pitching cost them was Game Seven of the ALCS. What really cost them was their overworked pen, and their lack of clutch hitting in the last four games of the series. Does the rotation need improvement? Yes, but not at the expense of the bullpen, and the improvement from Johnson isn't as huge as his name recognition would lead you to believe.

The Yankees should just sign Pedro if they're so intent on getting an ace. His 2004 numbers were average, but he really will be outstanding if used right, and he'll only cost money.

--posted at 3:38 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 19, 2004

by Larry Mahnken

For the most part, a team's sucesses and failures have to be pinned on its players. It's the performance of the players that determines the outcome of a game, and there's little that managers and coaches can do that has a major impact on those performances. There are definite positive and negative effects to the decisions coaches make, but they are, in my opinion, much less significant that we would generally believe, and I would further go to say that they're less important than the random fluctuation of performances. For this reason, I believe that it's far more important for a manager to be a leader of men than a great strategist, and the best strategy a manager can often employ is to stay out of the way of what's happening on the field.

The Yankees lost the pennant in the manner they did because they failed to perform in the final four games of the ALCS. The tactical decisions that were made by Joe Torre have been criticized by me, and I am strongly inclined to believe that, had those decisions not been made, the Yankees would have won the pennant, and probably the World Series. But that is little more than a belief, and they may well still have lost. More importantly, they had several opportunities to win in spite of Torre's decisions, and their failure to do so was not the fault of Torre, Stottlemyre, Mattingly or anyone else except the players who failed to perform when it counted.

However, it is absolutely stunning to me that after the most humiliating defeat in the team's history, and the greatest postseason collapse in the history of the game, the only coach to be shown the door was bullpen coach Rich Monteleone. Perhaps Torre's penalty is the shattering of the near-blind faith that's been placed in him for winning four titles and six pennant, and he'll be given almost no leeway in 2005, but it still seems like someone's getting let off easily.

The first good news to come this offseason was the apparent retirement of Mel Stottlemyre, but soon enough that story turned around as he came back for one more season. I and many others around here have placed a large amount of blame on Stottlemyre for the ultimate failure of the Yankees this season, some of it fairly and some of it unfairly.

While, again, I believe that ultimate responsibility must rest with a player for his failures, much blame can be placed at the feet of specific coaches for specific reasons, and while laissez faire attitudes are often the best ones for coaches, they are not always the best ones. Sometimes, you have to do something, and usually doing the wrong thing is going to hurt more than doing the right thing will help.

And this is my problem with Stottlemyre. During his tenure the Yankees have sent some of the best pitching staffs in baseball to the mound. Steven Goldman wrote this week:

The good performances of the pitchers on his watch are evidence of his abilities of a pitching coach. If Stottlemyre is going to be penalized for every pitcher that fails to live up to expectations, realistic or not, he should be credited for every pitcher that succeeds in performing as advertised or better. Clearly Yankees staffs have, on the whole, lived up to expectations.

I cannot agree with this assessment. You cannot judge a coach simply on how his team performs compared to expectations, because how they do in that comparison is not entirely the result of a coach's actions. This is the case with Dusty Baker, who was given entirely too much credit, in my opinion, for the success of the Giants and Cubs. The arrival of Baker in San Francisco coincided exactly with the arrival of Barry Bonds that season, 1993. That the Giants improved markedly is more likely the result of Bonds' arrival than Baker's, and the improvement of the Cubs last season is more likely the result of the team's improved health and the maturing of their starting rotation than Baker's hiring.

And so it is with Stottlemyre. He's been blessed with David Cone, Andy Pettitte, David Wells, Orlando Hernandez, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina, as well as Rivera, Wettleland and other great relievers. The talent of the pitching staff is the most likely reason for the success of the pitching staff, not Mel. The failure of the pitching staff this year is largely the result of injuries and aging, but that wasn't the only reason.

Jon Lieber was a tremendous asset for the Yankees in the second half and in October, but he struggled early on in the season. The turnaround came when he, on his own, found a flaw in the mechanics of his throwing motion, and corrected it himself. If there was ever a job for a pitching coach, this was it, but instead it was the player himself who found and corrected the problem. This could be excusable, but Lieber was not the only pitchers struggling mechanically.

Jose Contreras, blessed with spectacular stuff, was unable to find any consistency with the Yankees, partially due to mental barriers, but also due to inconsistent mechanics. A trade to Chicago had early positive results, but ultimately ended without much success for the White Sox. Perhaps El Titan de Bombs is unfixable, but if he isn't, the failure to fix him is a failure of Stottlemyre's.

More importantly was the failure of Javier Vazquez. In the first half Vazquez was as good a starter as the Yankees had, and while his strikeout rates were down and home run rates were up, he was going okay. Then the bad mechanics that have plagued him in Montreal came to haunt him in New York. He became frightfully inconsistent and became unable to put batters away, and by the ALCS he was the Jeff Weaver of 2004. Vazquez's mechanics are not a new problem, but it became noticeably worse as the season progressed, and Stottlemyre was unable to do anything.

Perhaps there was nothing he, or anyone else could have done -- in the end it comes down to Vazquez being able to fix the problem with the aid of the pitching coach. But it is clear that, at least in the case of Lieber, he was not providing sufficient aid to help his pitcher, and there were no apparent reprecussions for it. There's no reason to believe that if he had failed Lieber he wasn't failing other pitchers, and there's no reason to believe that he won't continue to fail them.

How much impact could a new pitching coach have on the Yankees? I don't know, but Stottlemyre does not seem to be having much of a positive one anymore, if he ever did. Loyalty is a nice thing, but eventually, in this game, you have to let your friends and allies go when they become liabilities. The Yankees made a mistake in bringing Mel back for one more year.

The Yankees' pitching did not cost them the ALCS, but losing in that manner was a convenient excuse to remove Stottlemyre and bring in someone new. It's another lost opportunity, one they may suffer for missing. I certainly hope that they don't, but it's not the most encouraging start to the offseason.

--posted at 9:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 18, 2004

by Larry Mahnken

The Yankees have been making the postseason every year for the past decade, but it's only been the past few seasons that they've started going nuts on the free agent market. The core of their championship teams -- Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, Rivera, Posada -- was mostly homegrown, and the bulk of the key players from outside the system were either accquired through saavy trades or signing them as second-tier free agents. The Yankees spent more money than anyone else, but they were spending that money one players they had accquired for reasons independent of money. To get Chuck Knoblauch they gave up Cristian Guzman and Eric Milton, both highly-regarded prospects -- and the Twins didn't have to dump Knoblauch, he was just sick of losing, and wouldn't shut up about it. They gave up David Wells for Roger Clemens, and while they certainly ended up on the better end of that deal, they didn't "buy" Clemens.

But after winning their third straight title in 2000, they opened up the pursestrings a little more and started making a big splash on the free agent market. They signed Mike Mussina for 2001, Jason Giambi and Rondell White for 2002, Hideki Matsui and Jose Contreras for 2003, and while their free agent adventures were limited to Sheffield and QuanGor last offseason, they did bring in Vazquez, Brown and A-Rod in deals largely built around money.

And they've failed to win a World Series since they started this splurge. Coincidence?

Yeah, probably. They could have made better moves than they did, and signing so many free agents has decimated their farm system by costing them draft picks every year, but the ability of the team to accquire what they needed when they needed it was not, until this past season, heavily impeded by what they had done in the offseason. This past season they were unable to accquire the desperately desired Randy Johnson (you'd expect a lot of porn to come up on a Google search of that phrase...), but then, nobody else rode off with him either. But had they some tradable commodities in the farm system, they might have brought home Johnson before the deadline, and might have won the World Series. Or they might have lost -- pitching was not what cost them in October, it was the sudden inability of their offense to get crucial hits after winning 19-8 in Game Three.

This offseason, everyone is looking to the Yankees first when it comes to the big free agent names. Pedro Martinez had lunch with George Steinbrenner the other day so they're obviously somewhat intrigued, they're considered the leading suitor for Carlos Beltran if they want him, since they seem to be the only team that can match his 40-year $80 bazillion contract demands. They'll trade for Johnson, bring in Jeff Kent to play second and Carlos Delgado to play first, and sign Jason Varitek just to piss off A-Rod.

Problem is, where is all the money gonna come from? Now, some estimates that I've considered reliable have the Yankees bringing in $300 million in revenue a year, and I suppose that those numbers will keep going up. But they've already commited around $180 million to payroll next season, and they still need six more players to fill out the roster. Their payroll will absolutely be over $200 million, and with the luxury tax and revenue sharing they'll be right around or over that $300 million mark. Now, if George has money saved up (if?) he may very well be willing to dip into that fund to keep getting better -- what's he gonna save it for anyway? -- but what would spending all this money do to the Yankees' future.

Now, the Yankees could construct the contracts they sign to keep the real payroll low next season, since they have about $45 million coming off the books after next season, about $32 million of it to players who are almost certainly not coming back in 2006 (Bernie, Brown, The Run Fairy™, Lofton), so they pay someone like Beltran a lot less upfront, but a lot more down the line.

But still, if they sign Beltran for what it looks like he's going to get, they'll have committed almost $90 million to four players in 2008, and Jeter and Giambi don't look like a sure thing to be all that good then, either.

And yet, I think they have to sign Beltran, or at least make a move for J.D. Drew or Andruw Jones (in order of preference), because overpaid or no, it's a wise move if they don't want to fall apart. At contract's end Beltran will likely be about Bernie's age now, and had Bernie not gotten hurt in early 2003 I think he still would be one of the top offensive contributers from center in the game. I see a lot of Bernie in Beltran, and he's a lot better with the glove. Beltran won't be "worth" the contract he'll get, but he'll still be worth having as a starter at the end of it.

If the Yankees want to keep winning, they'll have to start signing younger players, and making wiser economic decisions. Had they spend $185 million wisely last season, they would have had an incredible juggernaut of a team, won 110 games easily and only lost in October by way of a stunning upset. But the $185 million "flop" (in the relative sense only) was the result of several years of bad contracts, and the accumulation of other teams' bad contracts in the past couple of seasons.

The Yankees should continue to be big players on the market, but they have to start showing severe restraint. Rather than signing Giambi in 2001-02, they could have given the job to Nick Johnson, signed a veteran first baseman to back him up, and spent their money on a three or four year contract to Barry Bonds. They would have spent less money, gotten more production (and anticipated it, as well), and they wouldn't regret the deal when it expired. They should have, in my opinion, done the opposite with Gary Sheffield -- instead signing Vlad Guerrero, who is far younger, just as good, only slightly more expensive, and will likely be much more valuable at the end of Sheffield's contract than Gary will. Sheffield was signed as a short-term patch, Guerrero could have been the first step in a radical makeover of the team -- the second step being A-Rod, the third being Beltran -- that could make them younger, better, and more likely to stay at the top of the game for years to come.

But Vlad's gone and he's never coming to New York as a young man, so there's no point crying over it. But the team should still bring in Beltran, and around him and A-Rod build the core of the next Yankees team for the next five years. Even if Giambi and Jeter fall off, if Matsui sustains this peak for a few years and they can add some quality players around the rest of the diamond, that should be more than enough to keep them at the head of the pack.

They're not entitled to be there, they have to earn that spot. But they have as much right to go for it as any other team, and I'll say once again, the best way to do it this year is to sign Carlos Beltran.

Expect them to sign Milton, Leiter and Robbie Alomar and day now, and stick Bernie back in center.

--posted at 8:20 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 9, 2004

The Hardball Times Baseball Annual
by Larry Mahnken

The book is here! We at the Hardball Times have compiled the best articles from this past year and some great new material, and now it's available to sell for $16.75 plus shipping. For those of you who don't have the space for a new book or don't want to spend $16.75, we also offer an e-book for just $6.25, which you can read on your computer.

When we started THT last offseason, we hoped to write a book at season's end or before next spring, and we've actually pulled it off. I'm honored to have worked with such great writers and great guys.

All of you who love my site and The Hardball Times will greatly enjoy this book, and I'm sure every baseball fan friend of yours will love it, too, so spread the word. You can only buy it here right now, we don't know yet if we'll be selling it in bookstores.

So grab a copy today, and I'll be back in a couple of days with commentary on Derek Jeter's magic hands, the false hope that Mel Stottlemyre gave us for a few days, and what the Yankees are gonna do this offseason -- and what I think they should do. This is the most important offseason for the Yankees in decades, and while I think that no matter what moves they make this offseason they have a spectacular chance to win the AL East and World Series next season, the choices they make as to which players to accquire, for how much and for how long will go a long way towards determining if 2005 will be just another year in the great run, or the last hurrah.

But most importantly, buy my book! Buy my book! Buy it for yourself, buy it for your family, buy it for your friends. Buy it for homeless people, for stray dogs, and your invisible friend who is probably really bored since you stopped believing in him when you were eight. And then buy another copy. Buy one for each room in your house, so you never have to be more than a few feet from a copy. Build a shrine unto it and worship it as your new God. Tear out the pages and paste them on the wall to find hidden messages for the communist spies like Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind. Take it out to the bar to pick up women and settle bar trivia, such as "What's the tenth word on page 117 of The Hardball Times Annual?" (answer: instance). Set it on fire to see if it burns! See if it'll stop a bullet! Leave it on the train tracks to see if it'll get squashed, or derail the engine, killing and injuring hundreds and spilling toxic waste that will make your neighborhood uninhabitable for decades! There's literally hundreds of ways to misuse this book! But to do it, you have to buy it...

--posted at 11:59 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 28, 2004

Burying the Bambino
by Larry Mahnken

There, that wasn't so bad, was it? The world didn't end, it was just a baseball game. For the first time in 86 years, the Boston Red Sox are World Champions. And it's really not that bad.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not happy about it, but I'm not miserable. But I have a great many friends who are Red Sox fans, a large number of family members who are Red Sox fans, and for them, I am genuinely happy. It was time, they had suffered long enough.

There's a part of me that's relieved, too.

For as long as I can remember, it hasn't been that the Yankees beat the Red Sox (though they had), but rather that they had to beat the Red Sox. Beating Boston became more important than beating any other team, even to the point where last season I was so happy that they won the ALCS, not because they were going back to the World Series, but because they hadn't lost to Boston.

Now, the Red Sox are just another team, and while the Yankees have to beat them, they don't have to beat them more than any other team. They don't have to be the team to stop the Red Sox, because they've already gotten where they needed to go.

So, congratulations Red Sox fans, enjoy your offseason. We're gonna kick your asses next year.

--posted at 12:54 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 22, 2004

Mythbusters
by Larry Mahnken

My ALCS wrapup.

--posted at 11:51 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 21, 2004

by Larry Mahnken

I moved my Yankees banner into the window facing the street. I stuck a pin on my jacket that says "I'm a Yankees Fan". There's nothing more that I can do.

--posted at 1:52 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

This is not a tragedy
by SG

Sure, this is a huge disappointment, but it's baseball. I am frustrated and angry, but the team that played better won this series. Just realize that there is no reason to be sad, and there's no reason to feel depressed. Feel sad about things that happen to you, your family, and your friends. Don't feel sad about a sporting event, no matter how emotionally attached you may get at times.

As Yankee fans, we've been spoiled, and we are the luckiest sports fans on earth. As tough as this ending is, remember the great games this team gave us this year, and all the great games in the last 10 years. Let the Red Sox fans have their moment, wish them well in the next round, and move on with your lives. Rest assured, George Steinbrenner will pull out all the stops this offseason to put this team in a position to compete for the World Series again.

There'll be a lot of talk about the Yankees choking, but that denigrates a heroic effort by the Boston Red Sox, who accomplished something that no other team in any major sport has ever accomplished (no, hockey doesn't count). Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, and to their loyal fans. All sports teams have fans that are dicks, the Red Sox are no exception, but don't paint them all with the same brush. For the most part, they are among the most die-hard, loyal, and passionate fans in sports, and they deserve this night.

And there is no damn curse. Let's not dwell in the past anymore. What happened in 1978 doesn't matter. What happened in 1999 doesn't matter. What happened in 2003 doesn't matter. And in 181 days, when pitchers and catchers report, what happened in 2004 won't matter.

--posted at 1:01 AM by SG / |

How does this affect the rivalry?
by TVerik

I really don't want to post and boot SG's nicely worded entry off the top. Please don't forget to scroll down after my post and read his - it's a better read than mine. (I changed the post time and moved this below SG's - Larry)

Yankee fans, save this feeling. Nurture it. Only lows like this make the dizzying highs worth it. The 1996 World Series wouldn't have been anywhere near as wonderful if they didn't lose the first two games easily. And it wouldn't have been as meaningful if they didn't lose excruciatingly in Game 5 in 1995.

Why am I bringing up old history, particularly when I could be writing about the Red Sox right now, or the failings of the 2004 Yankees, or expressing my frustration? Because this result will make the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry all the stronger. Instead of Beantown being the Washington Generals, they now have a track history of beating their neighbors when it counts. The 19 clashes next year, plus the possible postseason matchup (we can only hope) will be more meaningful, more suspenseful, and could even be better than this year and last year. No longer will the Yankees have everything to lose while the Sox have everything to gain.

Finally, I can't take that high road. Color me an NL fan for the next two weeks.

--posted at 12:00 AM by TVerik / |

October 20, 2004

by Larry Mahnken

I'm not watching the end of this. I'm going to clean my apartment, and try to find one thing in my life to not be miserable about. What a lousy week.

I'm taking some time off. SG, tverik and sjohnny should be able to pick up the slack.

As for Boston, just go win the damn series already, so everyone will shut up.

--posted at 11:32 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

I hope every single person who called me a Red Sox fan because I dared to ever criticize anything Yankee is twice as miserable as me right now.

--posted at 9:53 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

What Goes Around
by Larry Mahnken

Eventually, probability was going to have to catch up. Eventually, a team would come back from 0-3. Eventually, the Yankees wouldn't get the big break. Eventually, the Red Sox would win.

You know, it took me an hour to get over the loss last night and try to show some measure of objectivity. What does that get me? Hate mail from both Yankees fans and Red Sox fans.

Don't ever become a writer.

--posted at 1:07 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Nightmare Scenario
by Larry Mahnken

Well, at least it wasn't Torre's fault.

After frittering away his bullpen the previous two days trying deperately to win games they could afford to lose, Joe -- and Jon Lieber -- gave pretty much everyone who matters a day off, making pretty much everyone that matters acceptably rested to go one or two innings in Game Seven.

I knew from the moment Al Leiter commented on Schilling's mechanics that the Yankees were in trouble last night. Then Jeter swung at the first pitch, and I realized that they were counting on beating up on him, rather than working the pitch count to get into the bullpen, and I knew they were going to lose. Lieber would pitch fine, and he did, but I knew that he wasn't going to be quite good enough. And he was fine. But not good enough.

So now the collapse is complete, and all that's left is redemption or utter failure. Redemption for Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez, redemption for Mariano Rivera and Tom Gordon, redemption for every Yankees hitter who failed to get the hit that mattered the last three days. Ironic, isn't it, that it's not been the Yankees' pitching that's failed them, but their hitting?

I look at Game Seven and I see a game they can win. At first, I felt calm, as though having lost the lead was the completion of my worst fears, but I guess I just put that aside so I could write something. Now I am brought back down by the realization that the Yankees are the only team on the field tomorrow facing a must win. The Red Sox will head back to Boston tomorrow heroes, either as the AL Champs, or the team that didn't quit. They have no fear of losing, because there is no consequence to them losing. For the Yankees, losing is the completion of the greatest collapse in the history of baseball, perhaps the history of sports.

They can win. Derek Lowe was solid on Sunday, but there's always the possibility of a meltdown. Of course, at the first sign of trouble Tim Wakefield will come in, as will Bronson Arroyo, a rested Mike Timlin and Alan Embree, and maybe even Keith Foulke. The Yankees will have a fairly rested 'pen, too, but they'll need as good an outing from Kevin Brown as they've ever gotten. If the Yankees fall behind early, they're done for.

I think they can do this. They have to do this.

Do it.

--posted at 4:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 19, 2004

Fair Play
by Larry Mahnken

According to ESPN Radio this morning, the Yankees are allegedly planning to bunt, over and over again, in an effort to make the hobbled Curt Schilling field balls on wet grass, and cover first.

With Schilling's ankle already tenuous at best (he'll be wearing a special sneaker-boot designed to keep his tendon from snapping against bone), this is a devious plan worthy of Snidely Whiplash, Darth Vader, or name your favorite villain.

Evil empire, indeed.

When you are relying on your opponent to get hurt, you must be getting desperate.

Does this idea make New York fans proud? (It's more worthy of Ed Hillel, the "objective Yankee fan" in the stands near the right field pole in Yankee Stadium, who lied through his teeth on national television by claiming Todd Walker's home run was foul -- despite replays showing the exact opposite.)

Just because the Spankees have been rocked and shocked for two games by the resurgent Ortiz, Foulke & Co. is no excuse to promote injuries.

It's just unsportsmanlike, from a team which is always claiming it has more "class" than others.

Puh-lease. Is it unsportsmanlike to take pitches from pitcher who is wild? It is unsportsmanlike to run on a pitcher who is slow to the plate, or a catcher who can't throw well? If Schilling can't field a bunt, or if doing so could force him out of the game, the Yankees shouldn't be afraid, or attacked, for bunting.

This comment by the Columbia-Union is, in fact, exactly the type of myopic ignorance practiced by Ed Hillel that the author derisively compares the Yankees' possible strategy to.

Thanks to David Pinto for this link.

--posted at 3:36 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

This is excruciating. If George Steinbrenner knows what's good for his team, he'll tell the grounds crew to slack off this afternoon so the field will be unplayable tonight, regardless of how much it rains. Yeah, that gets Boston's bullpen off the ropes, but the Yankees are wholly lacking a bullpen right now. Rivera is out, Gordon is out, Sturtze is probably no good for more than an inning, Quantrill is hurt. Loazia's out, for what it's worth, but I think he used up all his magic dust last night. Heredia sucks.

Lieber needs to pitch at least seven or eight innings tonight, and they really, really need to get to Curt Schilling. I don't mean knock him out of the game early -- I have no faith in their ability to get to Boston's relievers anymore -- but rather, beat the crap out of him, score six or seven runs.

If the Yankees lose tonight because they blow the lead in the eighth or ninth, Joe Torre should be fired. Even if they win the series. He wasted his bullpen on a game they didn't need to win on Sunday, he should have put Loaiza into Game Four and saved Gordon, he should have saved Rivera for the ninth. If they lost, they were up 3-1, but they'd still have Rivera and Gordon at more or less full strength. Torre's managed like these games were must-win, and that the consequences of losing were worth it. Now he's paying for it.

All the joy has gone out of this series.

--posted at 11:38 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 18, 2004

by Larry Mahnken

That's why you don't gloat.

--posted at 11:25 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

A Taste Of Reality
by Larry Mahnken

Well, I guess we knew it wasn't going to be that easy to finish off Boston. For three games I was cautiously optimistic about the Yankees' chances of winning the pennant, last night I dropped the "cautious" part.

Nothing that happened last night should convince anyone that the Yankees are going to blow this lead, of course. Don't get that impression from my last article, my pessimistic nature has a sinking feeling that they're going to do just that, but that's just my psyche preparing me for the worst. My sense is that now a Boston comeback is plausible, which is more than anybody would have been willing to say the day before. And you know, sometimes the worst thing happens.

But, for the Red Sox to lose, the following things need to happen:

- Boston needs to beat Mike Mussina
- Pedro Martinez needs to shut down the Yankees
- Pedro Martinez needs to go deep into Game Five
- Boston needs to beat Jon Lieber
- Curt Schilling needs to pitch well despite having a ruptured tendon sheath
- Boston needs to beat Kevin Brown/Javier Vazquez
- Boston's pitching staff needs to stop the Yankees' lineup for three more games.

It could happen, it's unlikely. If the Yankees were entering a three-game weekend series at Fenway with these pitching matchups, I'd like the Yankees' chances of taking at least one of the games, probably two considering Schilling's ankle. Two of the games will be at Yankee Stadium should this go 7, where the Yankees are 7-4 against Boston this season (compared to 4-8 at Fenway).

The Yankees got a solid starting performance from Orlando Hernandez, though his command got a little shaky in the fifth. Tanyon Sturtze was solid again, and considering that he's added a cutter (learned from Rivera) since coming to New York, and that it obviously took time to master, it is entirely plausible that his solid relief performances of the past month are not entirely a fluke, and that he can be a reliable middle reliever, at least in the David Weathers ca. 1996 sense.

Rivera didn't pitch badly, he just wasn't good enough. If Posada's throw was to the right field side of second, we're talking about the AL Champions right now. Gordon pitched well.

Foulke pitched three innings, using him up for anything more than a single inning in Game Five, if that. Leskanic stopped the Yankees, but that shouldn't be expected to happen again. Embree and Timlin probably can't go too long today, so it's almost all on Pedro.

Anyway, I'm cautiously optimistic again. The Yankees are probably going to win, but it's still not going to be easy. We were reminded of that last night. Because of that reminder, I won't talk about the NLCS until this thing is finished. So hopefully I'll be talking about that tonight.

--posted at 4:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Hope For The Forsaken
by Larry Mahnken

Commence flaming me. Regular blog entry to come.

--posted at 3:16 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 17, 2004

Boston Massacred
by Larry Mahnken

My recap of the game last night, with a shot aimed right at the lazy journalists who've already written their story:

But don't tell me it was a Curse. I don't want to hear it anymore, and if you're trying to tell that story, you're not worth listening to.

--posted at 1:13 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Suzyn Waldman is a Moron
by Larry Mahnken

On the postgame show:

Well, okay, because, one, right now they're talking about the intentional walk to Posada, which evidently supposedly was filtered down by the Bill James book, the intentional walk to Posada and then pitching to Sierra because THE BOOK says that Posada has a better record against Wakefield than does Sierra. However, that negates the fact that obviously they haven't been watching Posada in this series.

Yeah, Bill James advocates intentional walks ALL the time.

You stupid moron, you have no idea what you're talking about. You're so afraid of the possibility that someone might POSSIBLY know more than you that you mock them for a decision that THEY WOULD OPPOSE.

Intentional walks are STUPID. Just like sac bunts, there are times when they are the right decision, but they are few and far between. Giving a team a free baserunner when you're down by three runs, and there's two outs, is always a stupid move. The book doesn't say walk Posada, the book says pitch to Posada. The book says pitch to Sierra. The book says if you can't get guys out, you're not going to be any better off by not getting guys out and putting more guys on base.

Read Bill James just once, don't guess what it's about becuase you skimmed Moneyball, or because you see some stat line that says Ruben Sierra is 1 for 13 against Wakefield. 13 at-bats??? You SERIOUSLY think that Bill James advocates making a tactical decision on 13 fucking at-bats?

Well, at least Joe Torre would never do something that stupid.

Just shut up and ask your softball questions, and stop talking about things you don't know about.

--posted at 3:55 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Huge Win
by Larry Mahnken

Don't gloat. It feels good to be up 3-0, on the verge of beating our arch-rivals. It feels good to be on the verge of going to the World Series for the seventh time in nine years, a ridiculous number of times when you really think about it. It feels good. It feels REALLY good.

But don't gloat. Celebrate all you want, but don't make it personal. That just makes you a jackass. I'm not going to harp on the "it's not even close" remark from early September beyond this reminder of it, nor am I going to try to exact revenge for the schadenfraude a lot of BoSox fans displayed when the division lead was shrinking. I'm just going to be happy that my team is doing so well.

I am quite frankly as shocked as any Red Sox fan is that Boston is going down so meekly, I could see the Yankees winning, but I didn't see them winning easily. I thought that either way this would go six or seven (well, it still could...), and from the tone of some other Yankees bloggers, you had to know that a lot of us thought that it would be Boston on the winning end. Even SG didn't make an outright prediction here, I imagine because he couldn't allow himself to be dishonest, and he couldn't bring himself to predict a Boston victory (well, seriously, anyway).

Of course this series isn't over yet. In theory, Boston could win tonight, win Monday behind Pedro, and get a win from Curt Schilling to force Game Seven. And then the surging Sox win it behind Bronson Arroyo or Tim Wakefield. It could happen, I suppose, but everything would have to go perfectly for Boston -- they'd need six or seven innings from all their starters, they'd need to get to all the Yankees' starters. It's just not plausible.

I wonder, do the Sox fans out there want to hold out that hope that it can happen? Are they going to sit back and enjoy however many games they get to see their team in the rest of the way? Or do they want this to end quickly and mercifully, so they can move on the the Patriots (which, I assume, is a much happier thing to focus on)? I just wonder.

As for me, I'm half looking toward the World Series. No matter who wins the NLCS, this is going to be a great, great series. Both the Cardinals and Astros are great teams, and no matter who wins the Series, there will be no upsets -- unlike last season. I like how the Yankees match up, especially if their lineup keeps hitting like this, but I don't see them having an easy time of it.

Of course, I just said I had seen the ALCS going to six or seven games, and the Yankees maybe losing. So just disregard everything I say from now on.

Except this: be happy. There are few better feelings as a baseball fan than you'll have right now.

--posted at 3:13 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 16, 2004

Chipper's Car Fund
by Larry Mahnken

I lost my job this week. It's a tight spot, but I'll manage. Get a couple of part time jobs to pay the bills, and I'm better off than I was before -- at least I'll be away from Wegmans.

I might be able to get a job at a newspaper part-time, and get my foot in the door of the industry, but I'm going to need a car -- which I don't have. Anyway, if any of you had been thinking about chipping in a couple of bucks to support the site, I'd really appreciate it now more than ever. Sorry to beg, especially after I promised not to.

Thanks so much to SG, David Peng, Darren Munk, Derron Blakely, Ira Kotel, Scott Lange, Phil Coorey, RB in the UK, Jon Vrecsics, Joe Friesen, Chrystal Smith, Jonathan Kay, Adam Rashid, Aaron Gleeman, and NYYfans.com for helping out so far. If anyone else wants to, you can chip in through the PayPal link on the left. Thanks to everyone who even thinks about it.

--posted at 1:29 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 14, 2004

Father Knows Best
by Larry Mahnken

Two days ago it seemed the Yankees' task was to avoid heading to Boston 0-2, now they've got a chance to put the Red Sox away quickly.

I don't think they will. Boston's lineup hasn't shut itself down like they arguably did in last year's ALCS, they've been dominated by great pitching. If the Yankees slip just a little bit Boston is ready to pound them. They need a strong start by Brown on Friday night to get a real stranglehold on this series.

But that's just me being realistic. There's no reason to not feel estatic about things right now, so far things have gone New York's favor, they've beaten the two best starters Boston has, and might not have to face Schilling again -- and certainly not twice more.

Rivera last night was outstanding. He seemed a little off on Tuesday night, but from the moment I saw his first pitch last night -- a cutter that missed just inside -- I knew that he was going to be okay.

This has been a tremendously entertaining series so far, though very hard on the nerves. I definitely need this off day.

Over at The Hardball Times: Respect

--posted at 2:06 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Jonny B. Good
by SG

After watching Mike Mussina dominate the Boston Red Sox lineup in Game one, you had to figure that would be the best pitching performance the Yankees would get in this series. You would've been wrong. Jon Lieber pitched one of the best games of his life, in the most important game of his career.

The pitching matchup was, on paper, a classic mismatch. Pedro Martinez, the best pitcher of the last six seasons, versus Jon Lieber, in his first full season coming off of ligament replacement surgery. However, Lieber attacked the Red Sox aggressively, pounding the strike zone with all his pitches. Meanwhile, Pedro struggled in the first, allowing a walk to Derek Jeter, hitting Alex Rodriguez, allowing a single to Gary Sheffield, before finally recovering to retire Hideki Matsui, Bernie Williams, and Jorge Posada.

Despite only allowing one run, the tone of the game was set. Lieber threw nine pitches in the first, Martinez threw 26 pitches. Although Pedro had very good velocity, the first and second innings took a lot out of him, and he was only able to go six innings, and showed visible signs of fatigue in the sixth, when he gave up a two run HR to John Olerud after walking Posada, giving the Yankees a 3-0 lead.

Meanwhile, Lieber absolutely picked apart the Boston Red Sox. A leadoff walk to Ortiz in the second and a single by Orlando Cabrera in the third were the only baserunners he allowed through six. There was a classic 16 pitch confrontation with Johnny Damon in the sixth which probably cost Lieber his shot at a complete game.

Although he got the out, at this point his was 1/4 of all the pitches he had thrown in the game. This AB took a lot out of Lieber in my opinion, and probably caused him to tire.

Lieber entered the eight at 79 pitches, but gave up a leadoff single to Trot Nixon. He was pulled at this point for Flash Gordon, who's been a bit shaky in the postseason. A ringing double from Jason 'Tough Guy' Varitek put runners at second and third with no outs, but Flash did manage to get two ground outs, with one of the runs scoring. With Johnny Damon up, Torre went to the amazing Mariano Rivera. Mo has to be both physically and mentally exhausted, but he came in and did a great job of getting the last four outs, and giving the Yankees a commanding 2-0 lead in the best of seven ALCS.

Obviously, this is the best-case scenario for the Yankees, but this series is far from over. Boston hits much better at home, and it's safe to say that Brown and either El Duque or Vazquez are big question marks. You'd think that Game 5, with Mussina vs. a gimpy Schilling or his replacement heavily favors the Yankees, so if they are able to steal Game 3 or 4, they have a chance to clinch at Fenway. I still expect the series to come back to the Stadium, probably with the Yankees up 3-2, with two chances to close it out.

That's all stuff to worry about for later. Kudos to Jon Lieber once again, for an absolute gem of a pitching performance.

--posted at 1:02 AM by SG / |

October 13, 2004

Schilling's Ankle Will Require Surgery
by Larry Mahnken

Wow. Wow.

--posted at 5:53 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Johnny Damon's Classy Move
by Larry Mahnken

Apparently, when Mariano Rivera arrived in the bullpen, Boston centerfielder Johnny Damon, playing in center, turned and made a gesture (clasped hands, apparently) of support to him. To do that in the middle of a ballgame to show love for a guy whose team you're desperately trying to beat, that's the epitome of class. Kudos to Johnny Damon, one of the few Sox I like.

--posted at 2:26 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

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