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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away. December 31, 2006
#12 by Fabian
Mark Melancon, RHP, 21 Physical Ability: Mark Melancon is, by most accounts, is the leading in-house candidate to replace Mariano Rivera. This title falls on Melancon’s shoulders because of his low to mid 90s fastball and 12-to-6 curveball. Some impressive movement accompanies the impressive fastball velocity. This allows Melancon to attach any part of the strike zone. Melancon also has solid command and control of both pitches. In addition to those two standout offerings, Melancon has dabbled with a sinking fastball as well as a change-up. Neither has proven to be a quality offering at this point. What Happened in ’06: Despite being the top-ranked draft eligible reliever prior to the opening of the college baseball season, Melancon fell to the Yankees. The reason for his draft day drop was concern about the health of his elbow. Melancon’s violent delivery did not help matters. In the end, these concerns proved to be valid as Melancon had to undergo Tommy John surgery following his exit from the Hawaiian Baseball League. Prior to going under the knife, Melancon was a late season addition for the NYPL champion Staten Island Yankees. He seemed to be working off the rust during his regular season appearances, as he was lights out during the postseason. What Lies Ahead: Tommy John surgery is not much of a concern these days, so I’m not worried about Melancon undergoing the procedure. Furthermore, Melancon has been widely lauded for his makeup, which increases my faith in his being able to successfully complete the rehabilitation process. Melancon should be expected back for the 2008 season and depending on how well he adjusts, he may even see big league playing time that very year. Grade: Melancon has the mixture of outstanding stuff and excellent makeup that allows the future closer talk to seem reasonable. While he may be an afterthought for this upcoming season, he figures to play a big role for the Yankee organization in 2008. C+
December 29, 2006
#13 by Fabian
Austin Jackson, CF, 19 Physical Ability: A former Division I basketball recruit, Austin Jackson is one of the best athletes in the Yankee farm system. He stands 6’1’’ and weighs 185 pounds. Despite his amateur background, some doubts were raised about Jackson’s athleticism in regards to his play in centerfield. I feel that this should have been viewed as more an issue of him learning the nuances of his position than an indictment of his physical talent. Jackson is a 4.5 tool player with power being his worst projected tool. The best-case scenario for him in that department seems to be about 20 home runs. What Happened in ’06: Austin played the entire 2006 season with the Charleston Riverdogs of the South Atlantic League. He got off to a hot start with an April OPS of .824 and was mediocre at best for the rest of the year. However, that hot start as well as his physical talent was enough for him to be selected to the league’s All Star Game. With 2006 being the first year that Jackson would focus solely on baseball, I expected him to struggle at the plate. With a .686 OPS on the year, it is clear that Jackson did struggle. While Jackson was adept at working the count, he struggled with making contact with good breaking balls late in the count. In addition, Jackson struggled with driving the ball consistently. Coupled with his aforementioned breaking ball issue this meant that Jackson was often in front of good breaking balls, pulling them to the SS or behind good fastballs and fisting them to the opposite field. Both situations made for easy outs. When Jackson did hit the ball correctly, he peppered line drives to all fields. Defensively, Jackson was rough around the edges. I’m going to chalk this up as the product of getting used to being the captain of the outfield along with some combination of Tim Battle, Jose Tabata, Estee Harris, James Cooper, Wilkins De La Rosa flanking you. That is, unlike your typical CF, Jackson had to deal with guys who could go get the ball. On the basepaths, Jackson was solid with 37 steals in 49 attempts. What Lies Ahead: I wouldn’t mind Jackson opening the year back with Charleston, but it seems more likely that he will be with the Tampa Yankees. Either way, I am hopeful for Jackson’s chances to improve on his prospect status. Since power is not a big part of Jackson’s game at this point I don’t expect him to get as mentally ravaged by the FSL playing conditions as other hitters. Hopefully, this will lead to better statistical performance. In addition, if he can stay back on those breaking balls…he could hit .300 with 50+ steals for the year. Grade: The Yankee farm system consists almost entirely of RHP. Amidst that ocean of pitching talent, Jackson is one of the few position players that matter. If everything works out for him, you’ve got Derek Jeter offensive performance with good defensive play in CF. If not, you may still have a 4th or 5th outfielder. The strikeouts in 2006 were scary, but I have a good feeling about Jackson and the way he plays the game, so hopefully he will prove me right in 2007. C+
Extremely Early Projections by SG
As we sit around waiting for a Randy Johnson trade that may come as soon as next week, I thought it'd be interesting to see where everyone projects now that Barry Zito's signed. So I took the CHONE projections I've mentioned here and ran them through Diamond Mind baseball 100 times, and here are the results. It's still way to soon to draw anything super meaningful from these.
Something To Think About by Fabian
Click the post title to read Jeff Sackman's breakdown of just how good each spot in the rotation was in 2006. Based on his conclusions as well as the ZIPS projections for 2007, the Yankees current rotation lines up as 2 Number 1s (Mussina, The Big Useless), 3 Number 2s (Wang, Hughes, Pettitte), 2 Number 3s (Sanchez and Pavano). Just an interesting thing to think about as people fret about the state of the pitching staff. In addition, Jeff's follow-up piece can be found here.
December 28, 2006
#14 by Fabian
Darrell Rasner, RHP, 25
December 27, 2006
NJ Star Ledger: Pitch for Johnson better from Padres by SG
December 26, 2006
Trading RJ by SG
According to multiple stories, the Yankees are actively discussing trading Randy Johnson to a team in the West, with the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks the major teams in the discussions.
December 25, 2006
ESPN.com-MLB-Official: Diamondbacks, Yankees talking Unit trade by Fabian
I'm not a big Randy Johnson fan, no pun intended, so this excites me, no pun intended.
December 24, 2006
#15 by Fabian
Jeff Karstens, RHP, 24 Physical Ability: Jeff Karstens stands 6’3’’ and weighs in at about 175 pounds. He is a gangly right-handed hurler. Most Yankee fans should be familiar with him from his time with the big league club in 2006. For a refresher, he throws a fastball, curve, change, and slider. Karstens does not throw very hard, topping out at about 90, and his repertoire amounts to the definition of mediocrity. There’s no big breaking pitch or hard diving stuff here fellas. What Happened in ’06: Jeff began the year with the Columbus Clippers, but was clobbered at AAA. Coaches/team scouts said it wasn’t due to a lack of stuff, but rather due to a lack of confidence. Having always been a mild fan of Karstens, I believed this explanation and was cautiously optimistic about his chance to bounce back. After working with wunderkind pitching coach, Dave Eiland, Karstens destroyed the EL and along with Phil Hughes and Tyler Clippard made summer trips to Trenton disastrous for Eastern League batters. Promoted back to AAA, Karstens continued to pitch well and ended his year as a semi-regular member of the big league rotation. What Lies Ahead: Karstens will begin 2007 back at AAA. Exactly what his role will be remains to be seen because there are a ton of arms at that level. However, if/when anything happens to a big league long man or starter, given his 2006 performance, Karstens may be the first to get the call. I don’t expect him to do as well as he did at the level during his second trial there, but definitely better than he did in his first trial. He may also have some value in teaching Tyler Clippard, as he is somewhat of a poor man’s version of Clippard. Grade: Jeff Karstens, for all intents and purposes, is what he was in his major league trial. Not the ERA, but the stuff. He’s not going to throw anything jaw-dropping and there are going to be occasions when you wonder how he isn’t getting creamed and some of those times he will then proceed to get creamed. So, don’t expect him to be posting lots of sub 4 ERAs in his career, but do expect him to be a decent long man or rotation stop gap. Despite lacking the sexy potential futures of some of the guys behind and ahead of him on this list, Karstens places this high because he has been to the big leagues and been effective, small sample size warnings and all, and he is a safe bet to return and be mediocre. Players like him eliminate the need for your team to trade for the Shawn Chacon’s of the world, which may help them keep the Ramon Ramirez’. At the same time, he is a guy you don’t hesitate to trade if a deal comes along. C+
December 23, 2006
#16 by Fabian
Brett Gardner, CF, 23 Physical Ability: Brett Gardner is a 5’10’’ 180 pound center fielder. He has a slight, but very muscled frame. As one might expect, he does not pack much pop in his swing. What he does have is a ton of speed. Gardner uses this speed to bunt for base hits, beat out groundballs, steals tons bases, and cover lots of ground in the outfield. In other words, he’s someone who seems to know his talents very well and utilize them. Gardner has an OK arm in the outfield and though he takes the occasional awkward route, he more than makes up for it with his aforementioned speed. What Happened in ’06: Brett began the year playing CF for the Tampa Yankees and while just about all of his prospect teammates floundered, he was able to excel and earn a promotion to the Eastern League by June. Though he posted a very good AVG/OBP/SLG line in Tampa, it was a bit misleading as his BABIP was .416. In the last 3 major league seasons, the highest BABIP posted was .401 by Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. Needless to say, expecting Gardner to continue such success would be foolhardy. This was rectified in the Eastern League where his AVG/OBP/SLG dropped considerably as his BABIP dropped to .331. Given Gardner’s speed and proclivity for hitting the ball on the ground, such a number is much more reasonable and may even undersell his ability in this area. Brett’s last stop in a whirlwind season was the Arizona Fall League where he posted a .306 BABIP and low AVG/SLG numbers given the league he was in, but good OBP thanks to tons of walks. The common trend across all three levels for Gardner was that his offensive utility was largely dependent on his batting average, which is in turn hugely affected by BABIP. This is important because the more you strike out, the higher your average on balls in play is going to have to be to post a good batting average. What Lies Ahead: As mentioned, Gardner is going to have to consistently post good BABIP to hold his value. To improve his chances of doing that, he’s going to have cut down on his strikeouts. While his strikeouts aren’t to the point where they are a glaring weakness there is work to be done there, and it presents a delicate situation. Gardner does not strike out due to lack of plate discipline, but rather because of perhaps too much discipline. He consistently works deep counts and waits for his pitch, but may have to attack earlier in the count to avoid strikeouts and their effect on his BABIP. I think it makes the most sense for him to begin the year back at Trenton and, you know, get his OPS over .700 at the least, but it seems that he may be starting in AAA. The shining light with that is that his approach is so advanced, it may affect him less than it would another prospect in the situation of being rushed. Grade: If everything works out for Brett Gardner, he’s the player that many think Scott Podsednik is. Defensively, he’s rounding into shape, but can make the spectacular play on a regular basis due to his physical ability. Offensively, he is the definition of pest. It’s a truly enjoyable thing to watch him fluster minor league defenses by beating out base hits and successfully stealing on pitch outs. That said, I’m very concerned that things aren’t going to work out for him and that he is what he is, which right now is a defensive substitute and a pinch-runner. Gardner displayed just about no power during the minor league season as combined between Tampa, Trenton, and the AFL he only had 31 extra base hits. Given his speed, I would expect him to have collected more just off of the fact that anything in a gap or near a gap is an extra base hit for him. Unfortunately, a huge percentage of the balls he hits do not go much beyond the infield. So, despite the fact that he’s solid or better in the 5 tools, other than power, Gardner’s limitation in that department is so great that it potentially completely handicaps him. C+
December 22, 2006
#17 by Fabian
George Kontos, RHP, 21 Physical Ability: George Kontos is your prototypical current Yankee prospect. That means he’s big, 6’3’’ and 215 pounds, throws right-handed, and has a good fastball, regularly hitting anywhere from 90-94. In addition to that, and strange for a Yankee prospect given their organizational emphasis the past few years, Kontos also throws a pretty good slider. When not tossing a slider or a fastball, Kontos can be found fooling around with a curveball or a changeup. Scouts like Kontos’ stuff when he’s got consistent mechanics going. When he doesn’t do that he gives up walks and hits and is amongst the nation’s leaders in losses while playing for a good Northwestern team. What Happened in ’06: As hinted, Kontos had a very poor college season prior to the Yankees drafting him in the 5th round. He played well in the previous year’s summer leagues so while it would have been nice for him to do something positive with his performance, scouts were able to surmise that he would likely improve against wood bats. The 2006 New York Penn-League would validate this belief as he turned out to be arguably the league’s best pitcher. Kontos piled up the strikeouts and had about twice as many groundballs as flyballs while limiting everything else. The only identifiable performance flaw he had as a professional was trouble with left-handed batters. This is a similar situation to Tim Norton in that it is the result of a lack of depth in his arsenal. Hopefully this will improve with experience. What Lies Ahead: George Kontos seems like a good bet for the 2007 Tampa rotation where Tim Norton will once again join him. These two are very similar pitchers in terms of build and stuff, except you replace Kontos’ slider with Norton’s splitter. So, just like Norton and almost every other pitcher, I expect a good Florida State League performance. Another similarity between he and Norton is that there is some thought to placing him in the bullpen. Hopefully, that will be a last resort. Grade: I like both Norton and Kontos. They are guys where, to this point, it seems the Yankee scouts really did their job, as neither had college track records that screamed “draft me”. I like Kontos just a bit more than Norton for three reasons. One, and this bears watching, he had a superior groundball rate. Two, he is about 2 years younger than Norton. Three, I feel that his secondary pitch, the slider, is more consistent than Norton’s though I believe Norton’s to be more devastating. Despite being a college product, Kontos is somewhat raw and will need to be consistent mechanically in 2007. If his walks are in check, he’ll be fine, if not…we’ll see. I feel that Kontos has the ceiling of a #2/3 type of pitcher, whether that will be reached remains to be seen. Even if he does struggle in that role, he has the type of stuff that allows for an easy switch to the bullpen and so there is some safety in him as a prospect. C+
NY Post: HILLENBRAND MAY SIGN ON FOR ONE YEAR by SG
December 20, 2006
#18 by Fabian
Steven White, RHP, 25 Physical Ability: Steven White is one of many big right-handed pitchers in the Yankee organization. The Baylor University product stands 6’5’’ and weighs in at 205 pounds. With his large frame comes a big fastball that regularly runs in around the low to mid 90s. While you wouldn’t call White a sinkerballer, per se, he does throw a heavy fastball. In addition to the fastball, White throws a serviceable curveball and a serviceable change-up. Neither pitch is consistent for him and both could use work, but for now they are enough to get by with. What Happened in ’06: I criticized White prior to the season for not having lived up to his scouting reputation to that point of his career. White then essentially went out and made me look foolish, were the Yankee system not much deeper now than it was at the outset last year, his ranking would have shown as much. The first concern that White dealt with was the issue of scouts having always viewed him as an innings-eater despite his previous professional career high in innings being 117.1. This year he averaged over 6 innings a start in order to total 175.1 for the year. This total may have even been higher had he not struggled at times in AAA because unlike their other hurlers, the Yankees had no problem allowing White to go over 100 pitches. Given his age and frame, I have no issue with this strategy. The other issue White dealt with was his performance. All things considered, White performed well in 2006, striking out a decent amount of guys, keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. The one real fault in his overall game was that he still struggled with his control from time to time. By way of Yankee of interviews with Yankee officials courtesy of Pinstripes Plus, it seems this is more an issue of confidence than it is a physical problem. Corroborating that is that White’s walks in 2006 did seem to come in bunches. What Lies Ahead: White’s Columbus ERA was not great, but some of that can be attributed to luck on balls in play (similar to how he wasn’t as good at Trenton as his ERA there would indicate). In addition, as has been established, his control DOES need to improve. The final concern in his game to be addressed would be that he struggles against left-handed batters. These struggles can be explained by the consistency he needs to develop with his secondary pitches. Lefty hitters are simply sitting fastball and ripping away, which is producing powerful results. White should begin 2007 in the Columbus rotation as one of many RHPs who could potentially be called up to help out the big league squad. Grade: I am not a huge White fan. He has some glaring holes in his prospect status in terms of left-handed batters and walks. At the same time, thanks to a sexy fastball, if everything works out he could be a mid rotation workhorse, which I doubted much more last year than I do now. I’m not sure he has the repertoire to be able to fall back on a bullpen role like many other guys with big fastballs do, so he is somewhat of a boom or bust proposition. C+
December 19, 2006
#19 by Fabian
Tim Norton, RHP, 23 Physical Ability: Standing 6’5’’ and weighing in at 230 pounds, Tim Norton has the ideal pitcher’s frame. His fastball is almost as impressive as that frame, regularly clocking in the low 90s and touching the mid 90s. It is a heavy sinking fastball that has to this point helped him put up big numbers against wood bats. In addition to that fastball Norton throws a splitter that is at times an average, get me over, pitch and at others a strikeout weapon. The rest of his repertoire is very underdeveloped. He has been playing baseball in cold weather states and only picked the game up in 8th grade. He has no changeup to speak of really and from time to time he tries to mix a slider in, but it’s no good either. What Happened in ’06: The Yankees drafted Norton in the 7th round to little fanfare. While he had demonstrated a great fastball there were concerns about him in regards to what he possessed beyond that. Apparently for New York Penn League batters, the fastball was enough. Actually, that’s not entirely fair, as his splitter did come along a bit as well. Overall, Norton was just completely dominant. He performed well against left and right-handed batters, striking out tons of guys and keeping the ball on the ground. What Lies Ahead: Most people would consider me to be an age relative to league Nazi. In that sense, it’s surprising that I have Norton rated as highly as I do. However, when it comes to pitching prospects, I also love strikeouts and groundballs and Norton gets lots of those. I’m also hoping that he’ll be able to move quickly through the system because it’s not as though he is old due to having been stuck in the system for some time. Finally, there’s also the matter that he shouldn’t be viewed in the light of your average 23-year-old pitcher because, as previously noted, he started late. Norton should begin 2007 in the Tampa rotation where I expect him to do very well given his stuff and performance to date. Grade: Despite the fact that he was just drafted this year, I have a good feeling about Norton’s chances of making it to the majors. His role in the majors is still very much up in the air as he really only has one pitch at the moment. However, all it takes is one great pitch and one serviceable pitch to be at least a solid reliever. Furthermore, if the splitter comes along even more, Norton may be able to make it as a starter. As a starter his ceiling would be a middle of the rotation innings-eater. Another factor that makes Norton an appealing pitcher for me is that his one great pitch is a sinking fastball, which seems to be a great pitch for those of limited repertoire. C+
December 18, 2006
NY Times: Yanks May Deal Cabrera; Igawa Contract Is Close by SG
December 15, 2006
2007 Yankee Projections: CHONE by SG
Yesterday I referenced projections from the Anaheim Angels all the Way blog, where Sean Smith has developed his own projection system, called CHONE (Comprehensive Holistic Objective Numerical Estimations). Here's how the Yankees project using this system in 2007.
December 14, 2006
Who's On First? by SG
Right now the Yankees' roster is apparently short at a position that is traditionally the biggest offensive position in baseball. They have Andy Phillips and drafted Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft, but neither one is particularly inspiring. The Yankees have been linked to free agents Doug Mientkiewicz, Shea Hillenbrand, Eduardo Perez, and Craig Wilson. There have also been rumors about the availability of Richie Sexson in trade. One other name I haven't seen mentioned but who is available is Matt Lecroy.
December 13, 2006
MLB.com - Non-tender list by SG
28 players were non-tendered yesterday according to MLB.
December 12, 2006
NY Post: YANKS, BOSOX GUN FOR BUC by SG
December 11, 2006
ESPN: Outfielder-first baseman signs with Yankees by SG
December 8, 2006
ESPN: Pettitte returns to Yankees with one-year deal by SG
Yankees.com - Villone declines Yanks' arbitration offer by SG
December 7, 2006
NY Times: Yanks Appear Closer to Signing Pettitte by SG
December 6, 2006
NY Post: SEXSON MIGHT BE 1ST OPTION by SG
December 4, 2006
12/4/06: Odds and Ends by SG
With baseball's Winter Meetings beginning to roll, there's no shortage of rumors and speculation rampant.
December 1, 2006
Newsday: Bullpen needs could make Bernie odd man out by SG
November 29, 2006
Projecting Kei Igawa by SG
With the Yankees winning the posting for Kei Igawa with what seems like an excessively high bid of $26 million, I guess that we should try to figure out what a reasonable expectation for him might be. Cliff Corcoran took an interesting look at Igawa on Bronx Banter already, and I'm going to take a shot as well.
November 28, 2006
Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Yankees get rights to Igawa by SG
So, What Did I Miss? by SG
I'm back from my vacation, and of course I missed a bunch of stuff, some good, some bad. Thanks to Fabian for filling in during my absence and doing a great job with the major league stuff and his prospect reports as well.
November 21, 2006
Sheer Idiocy by Larry Mahnken
Justin Morneau is one of the worst choices for MVP ever. EVER. Not THE worst, but up there.
November 8, 2006
NY Post: BATTLE OF THE BIDS by SG
November 7, 2006
NY Times: Yankees Pick Up the Option on Sheffield by SG
November 5, 2006
Top Prospect Alert: 2007 New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects by SG
The owner of Top Prospect Alert sent me an email to let me know that they've posted the Yankees' top 10 list. Not much surprise to see Phil Hughes at #1. The rest of the list is pretty interesting, as three 2006 draftees are in the top 10, which could either mean that the Yankees had a good draft, or had a bad farm system.
November 3, 2006
"Gold Glove" Defense by Week by SG
Since J asked about Derek Jeter's defensive trend in 2006, here are the numbers by week.
November 2, 2006
Yankees.com: Jeter wins third straight Gold Glove by SG
Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Seattle bails on Matsuzaka by SG
From Peter Abraham's fine Yankee blog:
October 31, 2006
Melky's Defense by the Week by SG
One of the things I wanted to do this season in order to better understand how to assess the value players bring defensively was to track defense weekly. My hope was that doing this would allow me to see any patterns or changes in time periods, rather than a single year-end number.
October 30, 2006
NY Post: BOMBERS FIELDING SHEFF CALLS by SG
October 27, 2006
NY Post: Pettitte might be an option by SG
From Joel Sherman:
October 26, 2006
NY Daily News: Sheffield warns: I won't deal with sign-and-trade by SG
October 25, 2006
Daisuke Matsuzaka by SG
There's no question that the starting pitching on the Yankees needs some improvement. With an uninspiring crop of US free agents this year led by Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt, one name that has been garnering a lot of interest is that of Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka is a 26 year-old right-hander from the Seibu Lions, who was the MVP of the World Baseball Classic this year.
October 24, 2006
Why the Yankees should keep Mike Mussina by SG
Over at Was Watching, Steve Lombardi made the argument about why the Yankees should let Mussina walk. I like Steve and think he runs a great blog, but I disagree with him in this instance.
October 23, 2006
Yankees.com: Gardner providing a spark in AFL by SG
From Yankees.com, a winter league updated on Brett Gardner and others.
October 20, 2006
Wrists, Elbows, Backs, and Fasano by SG
Here's a quick look around the state of the Yankees, from yankees.com.
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