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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away. Sunday, April 30, 2006
2 out of 3 ain't bad, again by SG
The Yankees concluded their nine game homestand at 6-3 this afternoon with an exciting 4-1 win over Toronto, taking their third straight home series in this homestand and fourth overall, despite losing the first game on Friday night. Mike Mussina continued to pitch extremely well, moving to 4-1 and lowering his ERA to 2.31. He hit 92 mph in the sixth inning, and really did a wonderful job of moving the ball around against a very good-hitting Blue Jays team. I hope Randy Johnson took notes.
Friday, April 28, 2006
2 out of 3 ain't bad by SG
After what was probably the most frustrating loss of the year, Shawn Chacon pitched 6.1 effective innings and the Yankees finally remembered that they were facing Mark Hendrickson and scored 3 unearned runs in the bottom of the sixth inning to beat Tampa Bay 4-1. Derek Jeter continues to hit better than he ever has, going 3-3 with a BB, and is now hitting .408/.516/.684. His BB and an error by Russell Branyan set up the Yankee rally. I won't say anything more about Jeter because I don't want to be accused of bashing.
Thursday, April 27, 2006
FSL by Fabian
-Brett Gardner is off to a fast start in the FSL, hitting .406/.542/.531 with 8 steals in 11 attempts. This start has had some clamoring for his promotion to the Eastern League though I can’t help but think such talk is premature. Gardner has struck out 21 times in 64 at bats and that worries me. Hitters with strikeout rates in excess of 25% worry me, especially those who aren’t or don’t project to be power hitters. Gardner, at 33%, looks like he might have trouble with upper level pitching. That said, it’s difficult to come by more advanced information on the FSL and for all I know, he might just be striking out on a lot of deep counts, which is more acceptable and somewhat believable given his 18 walks drawn already. -Hector Made, now a 2B thanks to the presence of a certain shiny new SS prospect, is off to an interesting start. His .254 OBP, the product of a 0:14 BB:K ratio, is less than terrific, his .254 AVG is decent for the FSL, but his .478 SLG and .224 Isolated Power is where the intrigue lies. Made has long been lauded for his tools, so it’s nice to see that the power is coming along through his first 67 at bats. How long this will last is anyone’s guess as Deivi Mendez, another toolsy SS, once got off to a promising FSL start power-wise only to fade into nothingness. -Though his line only reads .198/.217/.395, I’ve been satisfied with Eduardo Nunez’s progress thus far. He’s obviously hit for power as demonstrated by half his hits going for extra bases as well as the .197 Isolated Power and while he hasn’t walked much, only 2 in 81 at bats, he’s only struck out in 19% of his at bats. He’s been a bit unlucky on balls in play thus far, so his BA should soon be on the rise. Lastly, Nunez has demonstrated the most important characteristic for a Yankee SS, he’s been incredibly clutch ranking 2nd in the league with 21 RBI on just 16 hits. -Marcos Vechionacci is off to a slow start, which is incredibly depressing for me, as he’s one of my favorite prospects. The problem with Vechionacci as opposed to Nunez when it comes to being extremely young for the FSL is that Nunez is a guy whose scouting profile just seems to suit being rushed better. Vechionacci is a patient hitter who excels at working the count, especially given his age, but has yet to fully develop physically as a hitter as far as driving the ball. Nunez on the other hand is a guy who succeeds due to quick wrists and reacting to pitches. After a disappointing ’05 SAL season, I wasn’t expecting much from Vechionacci, but I didn’t expect him to be this bad either. He’s also been uncharacteristically error prone in the field in the early going. Hopefully he can turn it around, and even if he doesn’t, he still has time on his side due to being so young. -Remember what I said about strikeout rates? Tim Battle, come on down. -Phil Hughes is awesome.
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
by SG
In 1999 at the age of 25, Derek Jeter put forth an incredible season, hitting .349/.438/.552 and ending up at an OPS+ of 161. Defensive metrics disagree on how good or bad he was defensively, but his offensive value made him an MVP candidate. If Jeter was that good at 25, how good would he be as he peaked?
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Melky Reconsidered by Fabian
It's still very early in the minor league season, and he has cooled off considerably as of late, 6 for his last 31 during Columbus' 8-game losing streak, but Melky Cabrera appears to be the most egregious placement on mine and many other Yankee prospect lists, with Pinstripes Plus being a notable exception. Though I claim to be a fan of large sample size, it would appear that I let Melky’s brief trial in the majors as well as his unwarranted promotion to AAA cool me far too greatly on a player I’ve been a fan of since he was the starting CF for the Staten Island Yankees. I also fell victim to listening too much to the concerns others hold about Cabrera. The concerns about Melky are, primarily, that he doesn’t have the defense to stick in CF as he ages and doesn’t have the power to play a corner. Instead of just taking this in, I should have paid greater attention to certain pieces of information. For one, despite all the apparent concerns scout-types have about Melky’s defense, Eastern League managers voted him the league’s top defensive OF during the 2005 season. Additionally, according to Baseball Prospectus’ minor league defensive numbers (Yes, I know many of you have a problem with their major league numbers, but their minor league ones are the most freely available advanced defensive metrics for that level) Melky was an above average defender in CF last year. None of this is to say that Melky will necessarily be a standout defender or even above average one when he gets older, but just to say that there is a chance he has some time to decline to average, which might not be the impression you would have received otherwise. As for Melky’s lack of power…when his defense gets to the point where he will need to be a COF, whenever that may be, his power should have naturally developed more from where it is now. However, let’s say it doesn’t. Based on a glance through the statistics, for a COF to be average in the AL over the last few years they should post an OBP around .340 and SLG around .440. In 1403 minor league at bats, Melky has hit .287, so let’s make him a .280 hitter in the majors. The last two years, Melky’s OBP has been .048 above his BA, so let’s give him a .330 OBP. Lastly, his last two year of isolated slugging have been .142 and .133 so let’s give him .140 (I like round numbers), which gives him a SLG of .420. If you have a COF hitting .280/.330/.420, you’re getting below average offensive production, however, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to add in some above average defense considering he is moving from CF. With all that, it’s not ridiculous to think that perhaps he can be a league average COF, which is nothing to call home about, but at the same time, a far enough cry from 4th OF at best, or “suck[ing]”. Yes, I’ve made a lot of assumptions in this little experiment, but I don’t think any of them are so far off base to be unreasonable. The point I’m making is not that Melky Cabrera’s hot start is a sign of his talent level or that he is a star in the making, just that perhaps one too many people, myself included, got caught up in his poor ML debut. We looked at what Melky couldn’t do, or at least couldn’t excel at, rather than what he could.
Beating Tampa by SG
Last year, the Yankees lost the season series to the Tampa
Sunday, April 23, 2006
Randy Johnson Doesn't Stink by SG
After crapping the bed against Toronto last Tuesday, Randy Johnson rebounded nicely today, allowing just 3 hits (all to Miguel Tejada) over eight strong innings, walking just one, fanning five, and needing just 94 pitches. Shockingly, he was able to do this despite pitching to Jorge Posada instead of Kelly Stinnett. I think we're seeing the 42 year old Randy Johnson, who is not overpowering, but will usually pitch well, with an occassional disaster start. As long as he can pitch a quality start 3 out 4 times, I think he'll be doing his job. With Johnson, it's usually pretty obvious when he doesn't have it, so I think a quick hook in those instances will save pitches on his arm, and also give the Yankees a better chance to win those games.
Friday, April 21, 2006
Small Sample Size Theater, Part 1 by SG
I've been playing around with some automated number crunching, which allows me to present some Yankee Sabermetric stats through 14 games. And yes, I know it's too early to do this.
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Good Moose by SG
Anyone who's followed the Yankees closely over the last few seasons is aware of the Good Moose/Bad Moose phenomenon. A nagging elbow injury and the ravages of time have morphed one of the most consistent pitchers in the American League since 1992 into an inconsistent pitcher who will show flashes of brilliance mixed with meltdowns of Heredian proportion. So far this season, it's been all Good Moose.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
OMG! Teh 6-6! by Larry Mahnken
Here's some meaningless data:
Monday, April 17, 2006
Pythagorean Records and Forecasted Standings by SG
Despite the Yankees' .500 record through 12 games, the team has played quite well. To put their start in perspective, I decided to undergo a little exercise similar to Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings Report, which looks at the components a team has put up to give them a record based on how they have actually performed on the basis of their runs scored and runs allowed.
Sunday, April 16, 2006
Wang-tastic by SG
After two disappointing games, the Yankees did what they apparently need to do to win this season, by scoring nine runs, powered by two HRs by Jason Giambi, and an outstanding pitching performance by Chien-Ming Wang.
Saturday, April 15, 2006
Feast or Famine by SG
Unfortunately for the Yankees, their series with the Royals had to end eventually. Scott Baker, Juan Rincon, and Jesse Crain held the Yankees to four hits and one run and the Yankees wasted a good start by Mike Mussina in falling to the Twins, 5-1. Thanks to loyal reader cutter for the title suggestion, which is something that will bear watching all season. Will the Yankees pound bad pitching and struggle more than expected against decent pitching?
Friday, April 14, 2006
Replacement Level Game Chatter by Larry Mahnken
The Yanks were unbeatable vs. the Twins a couple of years back, but they had some struggles with them early last year. This will be far from an easy series.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Replacement Level Game Chatter by Larry Mahnken
Yanks are 16-10 on my birthday, and Ron Guidry won his first major league game on the day I was born.
Back to .500 by Larry Mahnken
If you're inclined to overreact to a week and a half, you'll do so for the first week and a half of the Yankees' season. They're .500, but they could be 8-0. They had to come back late against the Royals on Tuesday, but they still won. They blew leads out on the West coast, but those were against tough teams on the road.
A correction -- but not a retraction by Larry Mahnken
When researching Derek Jeter's clutch homers, it was pointed out by a reader that I'd missed one.
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Replacement Level Game Chatter by Larry Mahnken
When I started this blog pretty much everyone who read it was at BTF, but I guess some of you hang out here for commenting now. Here's a special thread for that.
Derek Jeter and Clutch Homers by Larry Mahnken
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Opening Day in the Bronx by SG
Monday, April 10, 2006
Win Contributions by Larry Mahnken
The last thing the world needs is a new offensive statistic, but I wanted to share something I've been playing around with the last couple of days. It's not meant to be predictive, it's just meant to measure value in a different way than other statistics.
Sunday, April 09, 2006
What? Me Worry? by SG
After a four game losing streak, today's 10-1 win over the Angels was just what I needed.
Friday, April 07, 2006
Top 25 Yankee Prosects: '06 by Fabian
The only possible flaw you could find in him is his spotty injury history though he hasn’t suffered anything serious to this point. He will start the year in Tampa and end at least in AA. Concedes the number 1 spot after tough offensive year at AA along with move across the diamond and emergence of Hughes. I was more down on him at the outset of the off season, but recent news that the stance he used during his ’05 AA season was different than the stance that he has used prior to and following that stint has cheered me up. I still think it’s a mistake to start him in AAA though and hopefully his off the chart makeup allows him to put together a respectable season at the level. His stuff took a step forward in ‘05, as did his performance. RHB previously tattooed him due to his off speed stuff being so far ahead of his fastball, but now that he’s consistently getting it up to the low 90s, batters of all types are in danger. His fly ball tendencies are also overblown as he was around average in that regard. AA is often said to be the test for guys with less than overwhelming stuff and I’m cautiously optimistic Clippard will pass. Following in the footsteps of Marcos Vechionacci, Jose Tabata is the new teenaged phenom from Venezuela. Tabata is actually about a year younger than Vechionacci was when entering full-season ball, but I’m confident he will do a better job carrying Rookie League excellence over to full season baseball. Part of this is Tabata’s broader skill set, he is a 5-tool player for the moment while Vechionacci lacks speed, and part of it is that the terms used to describe each of Tabata’s tools were more impressive than those used to describe Vechionacci’s. Unfortunately, Tabata also gained a bit too much weight this off-season and that situation bears watching. Garcia is a popular pick for breakout prospect in the Yankee farm system heading into 2006 and while I’m not as much on the bandwagon as others, I do like him a lot. Garcia gets a lot of groundballs and when he is on he is the most dominating pitcher in the system, unfortunately his being on doesn’t occur on a consistent enough basis. Additionally, Garcia also seemed to have a tendency to get flustered when things weren’t going his way during the ’05 season. Lastly, the most common measure I have seen used to place a numeric value on his strikeout ability is K/9, which overestimates someone like him who walks and hits so many batters. In the haste to crown Garcia as THE breakout pitcher for the farm system, Jeff Marquez is being overlooked. Marquez doesn’t strike out as many guys as Garcia, but he doesn’t really need to as he makes up for it with more ground balls and better control. Marquez doesn’t have Garcia’s ceiling, but he appears a safer pick and projects as a very good pitcher in his own right Given his age, position, league, and home park, Nunez had arguably the best performance of any prospect on this list last season. Despite that as well as his solid tools across the board, especially defensively, Nunez only comes in 7th on this list because he will be starting the year in Tampa and I’m weary of how he’ll perform and what that will do to his future development. The organization was in a tough position as he had conquered the highest level of short-season ball they have and C.J. Henry would be holding the SS job for Charleston, so this is no fault of their own. It’s unfortunate that a numbers crunch may negatively affect his prospect status, but I guess it’s always best to have too many quality prospects at a position than not enough. Vechionacci was last year’s teenaged phenom and I was perhaps his biggest backer, going as far as to insinuate his age-18 season in full season ball would be perhaps comparable to B.J. Upton’s. It didn’t come close. Vechionacci started the year off all right, but struggled after hurting himself in a home plate collision early in the season. I feel that this incident may have been a contributing factor in his poor performance as what he lacked was proper drive on balls he connected with and since the injury was a lower body one, it might have affected his ability to generate power in his swing. One positive that came out of the season was that after switching to 3B permanently Vechionacci was widely regarded as a future Gold Glover. He’ll start the season in Tampa, which I’m lukewarm about, though similar to last year I’ll place my faith in his strike zone judgment to overcome, hopefully this time it’ll work out better. While there were some worries about how Jackson, a borderline first-round talent picked up in the eighth, would adjust to pro ball based on his having focused more on basketball as an amateur, he hit well in his pro debut. In the ’05 GCL, Jackson hit for a high average and drew walks though he only showed gap power. Defensively, Jackson projects to stick in CF and if he can maintain the K:BB ratio he held in ’05, or come close, he should fulfill his offensive potential and become a good number 2 hitter, perhaps in the mold of a Derek Jeter. The likelihood of him doing so isn’t assured though as even after the good debut his approach at the plate is still questioned by the scouts. Henry was the Yankees’ first round pick in 2005, but only got off to a so-so start to his career in last year’s GCL. The primary problem for Henry was strikeouts and whenever those are an issue it always bears watching. Henry did everything else well though and scouts don’t seem to doubt his ability to hit for average down the line, so hopefully strikeouts won’t hinder him in ’05. In terms of pure physical talent, Tim Battle could arguably place number 1 on this list. However, tools alone do not make a prospect, as performance is necessary as well. ’06 was Battle’s third year in the Yankee farm system and the first where he showed any type of offensive consistency. The consistency saw Battle end the season with a .259 average, 60 XBH, and 40 steals; all career highs. Unfortunately, Battle also struck out 195 times in 525 ABs. Because of the high strikeout rate I have no faith Battle will hit at the highest level, however he sits this high on the list because if he does get his strikeouts down, there’s nothing on the baseball field he can’t do. Battle’s chances of making the necessary adjustments are decent, I feel, because his approach at the plate isn’t a reckless one, it’s just that he tends to chase 2-strike pitches so perhaps a mental adjustment needs to be made. While Battle is the CF who’s all about potential, Gardner is all about polish. Gardner was a guy who I was not a fan of when he was drafted, but I’ve come around on him as he does have terrific speed and projects as both a good CF and leadoff hitter at the highest level. Additionally, Gardner is not completely without punch, which I thought might be the case. He will start the season as the CF for Tampa, pushing Battle over to a corner, and I expect him to end the year at least in AA as he controls the strike zone well and plays within himself. If the Yankee rotation goes through problems of injury or ineffectiveness it is likely that DeSalvo will get the first call after impressing in ST. Overlooked because he is a smallish RHP and can only touch 94 once in a while, DeSalvo is a groundball pitcher that racks up strikeouts. The biggest flaw in his game at this point is that from time to time he can get wild and run up the walk totals. This was especially the case at times early in ’05, but Matt adjusted to the level and ended up being one of the best pitchers in his league as has been the case every step of the way of his career. He might not have front of the rotation potential, but DeSalvo should be able to be at least a solid 4 or good 5 and that could be as soon as this year. Most Yankee fans likely have a very negative impression of Cabrera who struggled in the field and at the plate during his ridiculously brief ML call-up. Melky was not ready at the time and the Yankees had no business calling him up, so to some extent, failure should have been expected. Why the Yankees are continuing to rush Cabrera after that experience, now by starting him in AAA rather than allowing him to experience consistent AA success, I’m not quite sure. The decision is even more questionable considering that there is no need for a CF at the big league level and no top-flight CF manning the position at AA. Similar to Duncan, if he succeeds, it will be a case of talent overcoming questionable management. While he doesn’t have the stuff of say…Craig Hansen, who looks like the next Mariano Rivera, J.B. Cox should at least make a great set-up man someday. He strikes out more than his fair share of batters, gets tons of groundballs, and is battle proven, having closed the door in many a pressure packed game as the former closer for the Texas college baseball program. Some have made comparisons to the man who held that job before him, Huston Street, but it’s hard to expect someone to be that good that quick. If the ML bullpen ends up performing as questionably as the track record of the players involved in it would have one believe they will Cox should get a look come mid-season. Horne signed too late to pitch in ’05, but he is making this list strictly off the buzz from his instructional league performance as well as reports from his amateur career where he always noted as a high ceiling guy who was rough around the edges. The roughness around the edges is due to his injury history as well as less than ideal control. Horne will open this season at Tampa and if he stays healthy, hopefully will make his way to AA at some point. I have a soft spot for Jeff Karstens and his all-around average repertoire of pitches. He’s a guy who will never amount to a star, but does enough, eating up innings, striking out a decent amount of batters, keeping his walk rate low, getting a decent amount of groundballs, that I just feel he will be a big leaguer. His likely role in the big leagues is as a swingman/spot starter and don’t expect anything too nice, but it’s always nice to have those guys on your staff who you can call on to get outs and eat innings from the bullpen. Similar to Melky Cabrera, most Yankee fans may not have fond memories of Sean Henn. Unlike Melky, the problem with Henn wasn’t that he had show no signs of readiness, but that when he made the jump he suffered from big league jitters. These jitters had a huge effect on Henn’s control and command as he threw a lot of balls outside the strike zone and when he did get in the strike zone he served up meatballs due to missing spots within the zone. His fastball-slider combo from the left-side has had many, including myself, begging for him to be converted to a middle reliever, which I feel is a spot he would excel in, but the Yankees seem focused on making him a SP where his potential is strictly back of the rotation. Hopefully, he’ll be more mentally prepared for the big leagues this season. White is a big guy with a big fastball who some scouts project as a middle of the rotation workhorse. With no minor league evidence to backup the workhorse claim and without any incredibly impressive performance on his career ledger, at this point White is resting on the fact that he can throw a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s. He will begin the year at AA as the opening day starter, where hopefully he can improve on last year where he struggled with his control and got hit hard early only to succumb to injury and ineffectiveness until the last couple starts of the AA season. Despite the offensive-mindedness of the AFL, I’m not especially encouraged by White’s performance there either as he continued to have mediocre walk and strikeout rates considering his billing and I feel that is what he needs to correct to fulfill the potential scouts see in him. Rasner was an off-season gift from Jim Bowden. He will join DeSalvo, Henn, and Karstens as part of the most exciting Columbus rotation in years, full of young-ish pitchers who could serviceably fill out the back of a ML rotation. Rasner is the only one with positive big league experience, but has the lowest ceiling. Nevertheless, his good control and groundball tendencies should hopefully allow him to do the job when his time comes and considering the Yankee rotation has guys such as Chien-Ming Wang, who refuse to pick up Derek Jeter, we’ll probably see him at some point. Christian is another personal favorite of mine. While not blessed with amazing physical talent, outside of his speed, Christian has made an impression with his solid plate approach, surprising pop, and all out play. He will begin ’06 at AA, making the transition from 2B where his lack of arm strength as well as error-prone play were serving as primary hindrances in him fulfilling his destiny as a valuable player off the bench. In his 4th professional season, Jason Stephens will finally be making the transition to full season baseball. His stuff hasn’t developed as expected as he was only touching the low 90s during last year’s NYPL, but he has done a good enough job getting outs, especially those valuable groundball ones, and his control is good enough to the point where he is still interesting. Plus, at 21 he’s young enough where he may still add something to that fastball and if everything goes right we might even have a Mark Prior on our hands. Patterson makes this list because he’s a LHP that throws really hard, touching 96, and strikes lots of guys out. Unfortunately, he also walks a lot of guys, and at 23 is older than you’d like considering the extent to how poor his control is and how far away he is on the developmental ladder. If spots at the major league level were decided solely on merit, the argument could be made that Matt Smith should have broken camp as part of the Yankee bullpen. However, there are a lot of politics involved in such decisions and Smith will have to be content to continue to dominate hitters out of the bullpen as part of Columbus’ bullpen corps. Unlike fellow AAA relief pitcher, Colter Bean, there is a pretty high chance Smith does get a look this season as the Yankee relief pitching looks shaky and his ability to, at the least, dominate LHB, is a precious commodity. Smith just needs to get his control in check at this point. In an organization with just about nothing at C at the minor league level, other than Irwil Rojas whose skill set is somewhat narrow, Jose Gil sticks out. Last year Gil showed pop to the gaps as well as good strike zone management indicators. He will make the transition to full season baseball this year and if he can continue to show even the slightest bit of pop he likely moves to 2nd best C in the organization behind Jorge Posada.
The Unassailable Derek Jeter by SG
As I stayed up rwatching the Yankees blow their second consecutive game to Oakland that they could have or should have won, the one thing that sticks in my mind more than the result of the game was the infuriating Michael Kay and his idiotic comment when Derek Jeter fielded a tailor-made double play ball off his forehead and ended up costing Chien-Ming Wang 3 runs and his rhythm.
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
15 Down, 985 To Go by Larry Mahnken
Lots of people have speculated on a 1000-run season for the Yankees this year, but I don't think we should count on that. 900 runs looks like a possibiltiy, but a grand? Well, that'll take some doing.
Monday, April 03, 2006
YAY! OPENING DAY! by Larry Mahnken
OK, so it might rain, but if it doesn't, today is the first day of the 2006 season.
Opening Day? by SG
In about 14 hrs, the Yankees are scheduled to open the 2006 season in Oakland. Unfortunately, there is a 90% chance of rain in the forecast, so they may not be able to play. If they do, Joe Torre has announced his lineup, which has already aggravated me.
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