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Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

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- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
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"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
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Friday, October 31, 2003

Looking forward: First Base
by Larry Mahnken

After the Yankees lost the fourth game of the World Series, Joe Torre juggled the lineup, benching Alfonso Soriano and playing Nick Johnson instead of Jason Giambi. When David Wells had to leave after one inning, the bullpen gave up six runs, enough to hold of New York for a 6-4 win. Soriano and Giambi came in to pinch hit in the later innings, though Giambi was inexplicably sent to the plate with nobody on in the ninth, instead of the bases loaded in the seventh. After the series, some of the blame for the loss was directed towards Giambi, who some claimed "begged" out of the lineup--although other reports are that Torre pulled him after seeing him limping. Jon Heyman and Mike Lupica have played this up as a character flaw, Lupica wrote that an another Yankee said that Paul O'Neill would have hidden the injury from Torre. Therefore, Jason Giambi is not Paul O'Neill, and thus is not a winner. Gotta dump him.

Jon Heyman actually suggested that. He also said that Giambi went from "zero" to "sub-zero" this postseason. Because he didn't actually hit those two home runs off of Pedro.

Giambi didn't have a bad postseason by any standard except the one he's set for himself. He only hit .237, but he had a .357 OBP and a .849 OPS--including those 2 HRs vs. Pedro. Derek "Clutch" Jeter had an .856 OPS this postseason. Giambi did fine. But he usually does better. Hell, he was better last season, with a 1.071 OPS in the ALDS.

Why didn't he do better this postseason? Well, it wasn't his character, it was that knee, which has been bothering him all season, and contributed greatly to his worst offensive season since 1998. Of course, he was still one of the five best hitters in the league, but if he had been healthy, his batting average would have been closer to .300, and his OPS would have been around 1.000. Perhaps Giambi might have had surgery on the knee earlier in the season had Jeter, Johnson and Williams not been injured, and perhaps have come back strong for the postseason, but it wasn't an option that they could afford (and he probably wouldn't have fully recovered this season, if ever).

The media needs to label someone as the goat when expectations are not met, and I guess Aaron Boone and Alfonso Soriano weren't enough for them. But not only is Jason Giambi not one of the things that's wrong with the Yankees, he's one of the things that's right with them.

Sure, it would be nice if he wasn't locked up through his decline, but if that's the price you need to pay to have one of the best hitters in the game in the middle of your lineup, I think it's one worth paying. Unless the injury to Giambi's knee is much worse than currently believed, his OPS should be above .950 again next season.

Problem is, Giambi isn't a very good defensive player--not so much with catching the ball, but with throwing it. Defense isn't a crucial asset for a first baseman (although Shredder at Baseball Primer has pointed out that winning teams seem to usually have good defensive first basemen, but it's probably just a coincidence), but it makes it likely that Giambi will be the Yankees' designated hitter as long as Nick Johnson is on the team. In yet another unexplained correlation, Giambi's career OPS is .116 higher as a first baseman than as a DH, and was .205 higher in 2003. I don't claim to know why this is, or if it's real. Nick Johnson was better at first base than at DH this season, too, so I don't think it's worth playing Giambi at first base to find out.

As for Nick Johnson, I think he is going to be a great, great hitter, and he's already a pretty damn good one. His .894 OPS was third among American League first basemen this season, behind only Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi, and his .318 EqA was ninth in the league, tied with Jorge Posada and Frank Thomas, better than Magglio Ordonez, Bret Boone and David Ortiz.

And Johnson is only 25, he's likely to get better than that. Earlier in the season, he was better than that, leading MLB in walks, and prompting Billy Beane to call him "another Jason Giambi". But then he broke a bone, and missed nearly 2½ months. The injury didn't seem to affect him, he was dominant with a 1.024 OPS in August, but was dreadful after that, putting up a dreadful .708 OPS in September and a .634 OPS in the postseason. But as terrible as that was, it doesn't concern me tremendously--good player have bad slumps sometimes--what does concern me is his odd proclivity for getting hurt, especially in the hands. He's missed time in three of the past four seasons with hand or wrist injuries, and I don't know whether it's bad luck or a harbinger of things to come. If Johnson stays healthy, I think it's likely that within the next two seasons, he'll be putting up numbers similar to those that Jason Giambi has put up in the past five. And even if he doesn't improve, he gets on base more than 40% of the time. I think I can live with a decade of that.

If the Yankees want to add a bat on the bench (and I think they should), they should keep switch-hitting International League MVP Fernando Seguignol on the roster. His huge numbers in AAA probably had a lot more to do with having mastered the minors rather than anything else, but he's a pretty good hitter--probably better than Ruben Sierra--has good power, and can fill in adequately in case Nick Johnson does get hurt again. He's certainly be better than last year's backup first baseman, Todd Zeile.

The Yankees don't need to make any moves at first base, and there's probably not any moves they can make that would make them better there, anyway. If the Yankees could get Carlos Beltran for Nick Johnson (they can't--Mike Sweeney), then I'd say claim Manny Ramirez and make that trade. It's unlikely the Yankees will get equal value for Nick in a trade, so I'm against them making any moves with him other than that one, and I don't think they will.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Thursday, October 30, 2003

Manny Ramirez a Yankee?
by Larry Mahnken

Art Martone, the brilliant sports editor of the Providence Journal

, reports that the Red Sox have placed outfielder Manny Ramirez on irrevocable waivers. That means that if a team claims him, and has a higher waiver priority than any other team that claims him, they've got him. The Red Sox can't pull him back.

The Yankees are currently discussing whether or not to claim Ramirez. On one hand, it might seem like a no-brainer, Manny Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball. He's due nearly $100 million over the next five seasons, and it will cost the Yankees more than that because of the luxury tax. If the Yankees take Ramirez, it means that a) they won't be signing either Vlad or Sheffield, b) they won't be improving their defense, and c) they're basically giving Vlad to Boston.

While Ramirez is overpaid in the current market, and it does hurt them in some ways, it does mean that they don't have to give up a draft pick to sign a right fielder, whatever that's worth. I really don't know whether the Yankees should claim Ramirez, I guess it depends on whether or not they think they can sign Vlad. If they can, then I'd let Ramirez pass, but if they're unsure, then I'd grab him.

Interestingly, if the Yankees do grab Ramirez, it places an enormous amount of pressure on Boston to sign Guerrero. The Red Sox are not the only team that's going to be trying to sign him, and MLB might want to keep him in Montreal to increase the resale value of the Expos. It should be interesting to read the media reaction once this gets out.

Update: ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that the Yankees will not claim Ramirez. We'll see how accurate this report is.

--posted at 12:57 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Looking forward
by Larry Mahnken

So, I took a few days off. I needed a few days off.

It hurts to lose. It doesn't matter how often your team wins, losing still hurts.

Well, it's time to move on. The Yankees lost, the lost to a team that they're better than, and a team that they played better than. They were in control of the series, and had a chance to put the Marlins away, but they couldn't get the big hit, Joe Torre put the wrong pitcher into the game, David Wells's poor work ethic caught up to him at the worst time, and then they were dominated by an excellent young pitcher, and they didn't do what was needed to get him out of the game. More than being beaten, they lost, and it sucks.

It happens. That's the way the postseason works, that's the way baseball works. There's changes that need to be made, but an overhaul would be a bit extreme. They didn't lose because of some character flaw, but because they didn't get hits at the right time. The Yankees could bring in the best player at every position, and it still could happen again.

But changes need to be made, improvements need to be made. The don't need to be made because the Yankees lost the World Series, they would need to be made even if they won. Boston is going to get better, Toronto is going to get better, and if the Yankees stay at the same level, or get worse, making the playoffs is not going to be a sure thing. If they want to make the playoffs next season, if they want to win a title next season, they're going to have to make moves to get better.

Over the next few days, I'm going to outline what I think the Yankees should do in the offseason with their roster. For Bryan Smith's Wait 'Til Next Year blog, I answered some of his questions, and I caught some flak from a couple of Primates for my comments that the Yankees should try to sign not only one of the big free agent outfielders but also one of the big free agent pitchers. I didn't make this suggestion because having the best players on the Yankees is "some kind of birthright", but because I think the Yankees have as much right to sign those players as everyone else. It doesn't matter that the Yankees have won more of their fair share of World Championships, it's still fair for them to try to win more. (By the way, the Yankees would have to go over 620 years without a title to balance the scales. Seriously.)

I don't expect the Yankees to make most of the moves I suggest, and they might not make any of them. They might not even be the best moves: feel free to contribute your ideas in the comments.

Today, I'll look at the catchers:

The Yankees have Jorge Posada signed for the next few years (he can void his contract after next season, but with him being due at least $21 million over the final three years of the contract, it's unlikely that he'll do that), so they don't have to worry at all about a starting catcher. Posada was the best offensive catcher in the American League in 2003, and a legitimate MVP candidate. At 32, a decline is inevitable, and his defense is not strong, but he should still remain one of the top catchers in the game, and be a huge asset to the team.

Where the Yankees have room to improve is with their backup catcher. John Flaherty filled that role this past season, and while his OPS looked pretty good for a catcher, that was mostly because of his 2 HR game in Baltimore this August, for the most part, he was the same weak-hitting catcher he's always been. Joe Torre has always liked the glove men as backup catcher, so they might bring back Flaherty or someone like him, but it's important to remember the price the Yankees paid for having him on the roster. In Game Four of the World Series, the Yankees pinch-ran David Dellucci for Jorge Posada when he was the tying run on first with two outs. It was the right move to make, that run had to score. But when that run did score, they had to put John Flaherty into the lineup. Flaherty came up twice in extra innings, went 0 for 2, and the Yankees ultimately lost the game, and the series. If the Yankees had a good hitting backup catcher, they might have won the game, and if they had won that game, they would almost certainly have been World Champions.

A better hitting catcher would have helped the Yankees during the regular season, too. When Flaherty gave Posada a day off, it left a hole in the Yankees' lineup, and often they would have to bring Posada in to pinch hit and catch when the game was close in the late innings, and Flaherty came up in a clutch spot. The lack of production from Flaherty might also have dissuaded Torre from giving Posada enough time off, and while Posada kept hitting in the second half, he was also an offensive zero in the ALDS and World Series (though he was great in the ALCS). A better hitting catcher might give Posada a game off a week, and keep him fresh for October, and also help him maintain his offensive value for a couple more seasons.

My suggestion would be to sign free agent catcher Todd Pratt, who played with Philadelphia the past couple of seasons. Pratt isn't much with the glove, but he can hit quite well. He likely can be signed for about the same the Yankees were paying for Flaherty this past season, and in addition to giving Posada time off without being a major hit to the lineup, he can also be used as a pinch-hitter.

The factors that decide whether the Yankees can bring in Pratt are whether Philadelphia brings him back (and if he wants to come back), and if Joe Torre is willing to have a backup catcher who can hit but not field. I think it's likely that he'll go back to Philly, and even if he doesn't that the Yankees will bring in another weak-hitting catcher. The Game Four situation is unlikely to happen again next year, and it didn't really cost the Yankees the World Series by itself, anyway, so backing up Posada with a similar player to Flaherty won't kill them, but the benefits of a player like Pratt: more rest for Posada, less of an offensive hit when Posada sits, and a deeper bench makes it, in my opinion, a move that would make the Yankees a better team.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Sunday, October 26, 2003

Not with a bang, but a whimper: Florida 2 , New York 0
by Larry Mahnken

Since becoming a hardcore Yankees fan in 1991, I have seen my favorite team win four World Championships, six American League Pennants, make the playoffs nine consecutive years, and be robbed of a playoff appearance and a possible World Championship by the strike. I came in just as the Yankees were climbing out of the cellar (although I had always been a fan, just not devoted), and I witnessed their entire rise to glory. I have, most definitely, been spoiled.

Maybe I take defeat harder than the average fan, because it's something that I haven't been used to. Maybe all fans take defeat as hard as I do. In 1995, I was miserable, because of how they lost, and how sure I was at the time that they'd never win a title. '97 was, at the time, depressing and frustrating, but I've since buried that loss, as they followed it up with a perfect season, and two more titles after that. I was miserable again in 2001, because of how very close they were, and the manner in which they lost it. Last season was more rage than anything else, as they got their brains beaten out by the Angels. This season, the beat the Twins fairly handily, which I expected. They had their hands full with the Red Sox, which I also expected, and at the moment when I was sure they were going to lose, they won, and I was joyful. Now they've lost the World Series, and I'm not angry, I'm a bit sad, but mostly, I'm frustrated.

The Yankees were the better team in this World Series. The better team does not always win a short series though. The Braves were better than the Yankees in '96, the Indians were perhaps better than the Braves in '95. The Yankees defeated two superior teams in the 2001 American League playoffs, before falling to a team that they were fairly evenly matched with. They beat a team that was probably better than them in the ALCS. The 1960 Pirates beat the Yankees, the 1953 Yankees beat the Dodgers, the '54 Giants beat the Indians. The '69 Mets beat the Orioles, the 1906 White Sox beat the 116-win Cubs. I could go on and on about how often the inferior team wins a postseason series. That the Marlins won this series does not make them the better team. But that also doesn't matter, because they did win the series, and they do get the trophy, and the rings, and the flag to fly. And that, in the end, is what matters. Goliath didn't go home and say, well, I lost to David, but I still know that I'm stronger than him! Because he was dead. Dead men don't gloat, and pennant winners who lose to inferior teams in the World Series don't gloat, either.

I won't write much today about how and why the Yankees lost--I probably won't write much about that for quite a while. They played poorly, they failed to capitalize on the many, many opportunities they had, while Florida seemed to capitalize on every one they had. They were only outplayed in one game--last night's game, but they gave away three games in the first five, and did themselves in.

And so that's it, the season is over. The Yankees will go out and sign one or two big free agents, probably make a trade. Assuredly, some mediot will write about how the Yankees have ruined baseball with their buying of titles, and how small market teams can't compete, yadda yadda yadda. Of course, a small market team won in 2001, and a mid market team whose lease makes them essentially a small market team won this year, and of course, Bud Selig has stopped preaching the doctrine of competitive imbalance and is trying to take credit for the success of Florida, saying the new CBA made it possible (it did no such thing). Whatever. People who write that should be fired. It never was true, and now the irrefutable evidence of it's falsity exists. Small market teams can compete just fine; small payroll teams can compete when the circumstances are right. Go ahead and let the Yankees buy up the free agent market. Take note: the Yankees didn't sign a single premier free agent from 1996-2000. Since signing Mike Mussina in late 2000, they haven't won a single title.

The Yankees won't collapse. They're old, they're declining, but 1964 isn't just around the corner. The collapse will be a few 85-win seasons, just out of contention--if, of course, it happens at all. They'll contend for a title again next year, but it'll be tougher. Boston and Toronto will be better, and the Yankees might not even make it out of the East.

But let's talk about that tomorrow, or next week, we've got a few months to bitch before they play again. The 2003 season is over, but the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog isn't out of stuff to write--I think. Especially with the Yankees, you know that there will be a lot to talk about in the offseason. Although I hope to, I might not be able to write everyday, but I'll try, and I'll keep the site regularly updated, and I'll write about any important story involving the Yankees (and some that don't).

I started this blog as a way to put my opinions about my favorite team and sport out there for people to read. Some of you liked my style of writing, some of you liked my analysis, and some of you hated me, although I'm not sure why I'm worth hating. I thank you all for reading, and I hope that you return regularly during the offseason, and that I can make your visits here worthwhile. I'd like to offer special thanks to some people who have particularly encouraged me in my writing: Art Martone, Jay Jaffe, Alex Belth, Aaron Gleeman, "Repoz", and everyone in the Yankees Game Chatters on Baseball Primer this year, all of whom I consider my friends. Also, I'd like to mention Dan Szymborski, who didn't actually do anything, but who said I've never mentioned him on the blog. Well, now I have.

I'd also like to give personal thanks to my friends and family: Dad, Mom and my sister, Beth; I love you all. My friends Stef, Bella, Mikey, Kosko, Chrissy, Tyler, Rob, Bill, and Jeff Patrick, who hates baseball with a passion, and who I'm sure will torture me mercilessly about the Yankees' loss, but has encouraged me in my writing nonetheless.

Sorry for all that personal crap that you likely don't care about, and if I forgot to mention you, well, now you know that I don't care. Just kidding. If I forgot you, I'm sorry.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Saturday, October 25, 2003

Last Dance
by Larry Mahnken

I look at tonight's Game Six with anticipation and dread. I don't feel confident that they'll win this game, or certain that they'll lose it, either. I know they can win, I know they should win, but they should also have won all five of these games, and they lost three of them. So much for should.

I dread defeat. I can visualize that moment in the postgame, where Bud Selig hands the World Series trophy over to Jeff Loria, and in that instant, as they both touch it, that trophy becomes a conduit through which so much evil passes that it explodes in a blinding flash of red light, and breaks open a vortex in the Visitors' Clubhouse, destroying all of civilization, and through which pass the terrible minions of Satan, bringing down 10 million years of darkness upon mankind for allowing such evil to not only exist, but triumph.

I could deal with the Cubs winning, I could even be willing to accept, eventually, a Red Sox victory. And I have nothing against the Florida Marlins or they're devoted fan(s). Jack McKeon is a man deserving of a title, and he should never have been cast aside by the Cincinnati Reds for Bob Boone. He has done an excellent job.

But Jeff Loria is evil. To non-Yankees fans, this series has been likened to the Eastern Front in World War II--who do you root for, Stalin or Hitler? It cannot be disputed that Steinbrenner is an egomaniacal asshole. He fires people for minor indiscretions, and is brutal in handing out blame for the team's on-field failures. But he tries to win, and that, above all else, is his motivation in running the team. He could make many millions more if he fielded consistently strong teams that didn't win titles, but still filled Yankee Stadium with fans, while costing tens of millions of dollars less in payroll (Connie Mack's stated desire for his teams). That tact would even have helped fend off Bud Selig's drastic revenue sharing demands, and perhaps saved him tens of millions more. But while he's a good businessman, and won't risk losing money, he also puts winning above maximizing his profit, and tries to put the best team on the field that he can.

Jeff Loria, on the other hand, destroyed baseball in Montreal. Taking advantage of the revenue sharing program in place, he invested as little money as possible in the team, instead collecting massive revenue sharing checks year after year--making the safe profit, or at worst taking a minimal loss. He maneuvered the rest of the Expos' ownership out of the way, taking over the majority of the team, then proceeded to destroy the fan base in Montreal, while simultaneously demanding that the taxpayers finance a brand new stadium for him to field crappy teams in. When MLB bought the team from him with the intention of contracting it before last season, he insisted on being allowed to purchase another team, and so MLB fixed the sale of the Red Sox to John Henry's group to free up the Marlins for him.

Now, I know what you're thinking, the Marlins won the pennant this season, Loria can't be that bad, he's obviously committed to winning. No, he's obviously committed to looking good to the public in South Florida, who he will press to buy him a new stadium, and is also trying to put forward a good image in defense of himself in the RICO suit brought against him and Bud Selig by Loria's former partners in Montreal. Have no fear, Marlins fans, in a few years--shiny new stadium or not--Loria will proceed to operate the Marlins in the same manner in which he did the Expos: don't spend money, and cash the big fat Yankees checks. Like anyone, he enjoys winning, but he enjoys money more.

But while I dread defeat, I can see victory. The Yankees go into the last game with the pitchers who recorded victories in both of their wins: Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina. Both were not just good, but dominant, and should be able to keep the Yankees in the game. Pettitte is streaky, and if he goes out and throws a clunker, the Yankees are dead. But I think Pettitte can give them the strong performance they need to survive.

What is comes down to is whether or not the Yankees can score off of Beckett and Pavano. McKeon is taking a tremendous gamble: Beckett is a fastball pitcher, and has never started on short rest. He is less likely to be dominant, and less likely to go deep (Florida's bullpen has a 5.29 ERA in this series), although he did throw 4 innings of 1-hit ball on two days' rest in Game Seven of the NLCS. Pavano was also excellent in Game Four, but will also be going on short rest coming off of 115 pitches. This strategy of using his two best pitchers on short rest would be an excellent one if the Marlins were facing elimination tonight, as it maximizes their chances of winning both games, but they're not facing elimination, and the strategy of using Beckett on full rest in Game 7, and Redman tonight maximizes their chances of winning one game.

Or does it? After all, Redman is not a particularly consistent pitcher, and he wasn't fooling the Yankees at all in Game Two. Redman might get torched if he starts tonight, and it won't matter how Pettitte pitches. Then it would be up to Beckett against Mussina, and even if Beckett totally shuts down the Yankees for nine innings, Moose is capable--perhaps more capable than Beckett--of shutting down the Marlins. The Marlins aren't facing Pedro Martinez in Game Seven, but they are viewing that matchup as if they were. They don't want to have to beat Mussina, and so their strategy is to do all they can to avoid a Game Seven, and win tonight. With Beckett and Pavano going in the two games, you increase your chances of winning tonight--it puts much more pressure on Pettitte right from the start, as he knows he has to be almost perfect, or he may be facing elimination, and if the Yankees do win, Pavano seems nearly as likely of outdueling Mussina as Beckett is.

There's no way to say that the Yankees have an advantage in tonight's game, or in this series. They don't, they're up against the wall, and the Marlins have to win only one game to be World Champions. If the Yankees start taking advantage of their opportunities, or at least work the pitch count to get Beckett out early, they should be able to score more than enough runs to win tonight, even if Petitte doesn't pitch well. And if they do win tonight, then they do have the advantage, as the Marlins are facing elimination against a superior pitcher and lineup.

But they have to win tonight, or it's literally over. They can, and they should, but like I said, should means nothing tonight. Either they do or they don't, there's no way to rationalize defeat.

--posted at 12:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Friday, October 24, 2003

Pathetic: Florida 6, New York 4
by Larry Mahnken

If you're going to focus on one reason the Yankees are one game away from losing the World Series to a vastly inferior team, look at the offense. They've failed to come through with clutch hits time and again this series, failed to score nearly as many runs as they reasonably should have expected to. There's been bad defense, and some poor managerial decisions, but if the Yankees were hitting anywhere near as well as they should be, it wouldn't matter. This isn't the case of dominant Florida starting pitching completely shutting down the Yankees' hitters, as you could say was the case in 2001 against the Diamondbacks. No, the Yankees have actually hit well in this series, but they haven't gotten the big hit in the many, many scoring opportunities they had. If the Yankees were playing well, they would have swept this series. If they were playing just okay...they probably still would have swept this series. Instead, they're playing terribly, and so are now one game away from losing to the Marlins.

No player has exemplified the impotence of the Yankees' effort more pathetically than Alfonso Soriano. Soriano has run almost exclusively hot and cold all season, and this postseason he has been exclusively cold. He's batting .158 in this series, and barely over .200 for the postseason, and along the way, he's set a postseason record for strikeouts.

The problem has been exacerbated by Joe Torre's insistence on batting him leadoff throughout the postseason. Last night, finally willing to accept that Soriano has been killing the Yankees at the top of the lineup all postseason, Joe Torre... benched him. His stated reason was that Soriano seemed to have broken out of slumps after having a day off earlier in the season*, so he figured he'd give him a day off . Yeah Joe, that's it, he's tired. Maybe Soriano is tired, but it's more likely that Soriano's problem is his total lack of even a modicum of discipline.

I've explained this before, I'll do it again: Plate discipline does NOT mean taking walks. The essence of plate discipline can be summed up by one piece of advice Rogers Hornsby gave to a 20-year old Ted Williams while serving as hit hitting coach in the minor leagues: "Get a good ball to hit". If you only swing at balls you can hit well, you're more likely to hit those balls hard--raising your batting average and your slugging percentage. And because no pitch outside of the zone is one that you're likely to hit well, you'll draw more walks, too--raising your on-base percentage. On the other hand, if you take the approach that Soriano seems to take: swing at any pitch you think you might be able to hit, you might get some hittable pitches, but you'll get mostly pitches that you can't hit hard, you won't get hits, you won't get on base, and you won't hit the ball hard.

This isn't a new problem for Soriano. He's been hitting like this since he was in the minor leagues, and it's this style that led many statheads to believe that he would never amount to very much as a major leaguer. The belief that D'Angelo Jimenez would be a better player than Soriano had less to do with a belief in Jimenez's upside than a view towards Soriano's downside. It hasn't happened, and it's not likely to happen, but before the past two seasons, you could see Soriano collapsing as a hitter. Billy Beane doesn't think that plate discipline can be learned, that you either have it or you don't, but I firmly believe that it can, at the very least, be improved, simply by drilling into a ballplayer's head this simple adage: "Get a good ball to hit."

But you know what? The World Series isn't the right time to change a batter's approach, and I lay the blame at the feet of Joe Torre and Rick Down for failing to recognize Soriano's fatal flaw in the past three seasons, and be proactive about it. Most bullheaded of all has been Torre's insistence in batting Soriano leadoff, even though his on-base percentage is pathetic, and it leads to him hitting many leadoff home runs, home runs that might otherwise have come with men on base. The appropriate reaction last night to Soriano's slump--well, the appropriate reaction before the World Series began--would have been to drop him down in the lineup, where his PAs would be minimized, and a superior hitter's would be maximized.

But Torre dropped Soriano from the lineup, and replaced him with Enrique Wilson. There is one legitimate justification for playing Wilson ahead of Soriano, and that's the fact that Wilson usually hits better than Soriano is right now, so if Wilson were to hit at his normal level, you might actually gain something with the bat. But where Wilson batted--second--defies explanation. This is Enrique Wilson, he has a .654 career OPS, and a .296 career OBP. If you're going to play him, for God's sake, bat him eighth!

At first glance, it appears that the move worked out for Torre. Wilson was 2 for 4 with a walk, his bunt single in the first led to the Yankees' first run (actually, the error on the play led to the Yankees' first run), his walk in the seventh brought the tying run to the plate, and his double in the ninth did the same. He drove in two runs, and for the most part helped the Yankees' lineup--although his GIDP in the top of the third, after Florida scored three runs to take the lead, killed the Yankees' chances for a rally that inning.

But, of course, baseball is not just offense, and Wilson may have cost the Yankees the game with his glove. In the second, Brad Penny smacked a ball to the right side of second base, and Wilson took a Jeteresque step and a dive, and the ball was by him. Now, while Bret Boone probably would have made the play on that ball, Wilson shouldn't have, and Soriano probably wouldn't have...but, on the other hand, Soriano is two inches taller than Wilson, and has much longer arms...he might have. But that wasn't the play that killed the Yankees, even though it scored two runs, when an out would have ended the inning.

No, the play that killed the Yankees came in the bottom of the fifth, with Ivan Rodriguez on second, and one out. Jeff Conine hit the ball hard past third base, but Aaron Boone made a spectacular play to field it. Rodriguez was caught off of second base, and Boone smartly chased him back to second, and threw the ball to Wilson, who briefly chased Rodriguez to third, then threw the ball to nobody, allowing Rodriguez to reach third safely and Conine to reach second. The next batter, Lowell, singled to center, both runs scored, and--hey, wouldn't you know it, that was the winning margin. And you kind of knew it would be at the time, too.

On television, it was speculated, probably correctly, that Wilson threw to third so quickly because he wanted to avoid a long rundown, which would get Conine to second base. However, if the Yankees--and this includes Boone--had properly executed the rundown, Rodriguez would have been out, Conine stuck on first base, and it is likely no runs would have scored.

The proper way to execute a rundown in this situation is simple: Boone fields the ball, sees Rodriguez stuck between second and third. He immediately starts running towards Rodriguez, to get him to run to second base to avoid the tag. At this time, Wilson should be running towards Rodriguez from second, and as soon as Pudge is committed towards second, Boone should flip it to Wilson, who catches the ball, and tags Rodriguez--whose momentum doesn't allow him to change directions quickly enough to get away from Wilson. One throw, one out, Conine stuck at first. There should never be more than one throw in a properly executed rundown, the key is to get the baserunner to commit to running towards one base, which makes him unable to avoid the tag from the defensive player standing there. You, of course, never see it done properly, the defensive player usually pump fakes the ball to try and get the runner to slow down or come towards them, leading to exactly the opposite result of the one intended--the runner doesn't commit to one direction, and rather than running into the tag, he gets chased long enough for the runner to move up.

Of course, what was probably the biggest factor in the loss was the injury to David Wells, who had to leave after a perfect first inning. Wells was very good in the first game, and his strong start--and a 1-0 lead, gave hope that he might send the Yankees back to New York with a 3-2 lead, instead of a 3-2 deficit. But Wells started suffering from back spasms, and fortunately told Torre and Stottlemyre about it, rather than going back to the mound and getting hammered. But the bullpen wasn't able to shut Florida down, the defense didn't help out much, and the Yankees are now facing elimination.

Florida likely goes to Josh Beckett and Carl Pavano on short rest now, looking for one win against Andy Pettitte or Mike Mussina. Hey, the Yankees can do it, they're a better team than Florida, and Pettitte and Mussina on full rest are probably better than Beckett and Pavano on short rest. They're at home, and the last two World Champions won Games 6 and 7 at home. But it's looking somewhat bleak.

Move over, '88 Dodgers, you may have competition soon.

*(in 24 PAs after a day off this year, Soriano was .364/.417/.409/.826)

--posted at 1:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Thursday, October 23, 2003

Wasted Heroics: Florida 4, New York 3
by Larry Mahnken

I've heard from a lot of Red Sox fans in the past week that if Joe Torre was manager of the Red Sox, they, not the Yankees, would have won the American League Pennant. Perhaps. But both Little and Dusty Baker, whose failure to recognize his pitcher was done in the NLCS cost the Cubs a pennant, had a legitimate point in leaving Pedro Martinez and Mark Prior on the mound: if you're going to lose, you might as well lose with your best pitcher.

Evidently, Joe Torre doesn't buy into that theory. He seems to follow the less popular theory of "losing with your worst pitcher".

Of course, that wasn't what Torre was actually thinking:

Weaver, he's our long guy, and unfortunately he hasn't pitched a whole lot, but he's been throwing, and the home run, he got to 3-2, and you certainly don't want to walk somebody to lead off an inning. He made him hit it, and he did, and the game's over. That was basically it. They're primarily right handed over there, and that's why Weaver was in the game. I mean, if he's not in the game there, he shouldn't be on our roster.

Joe made a good point, but probably not the one he intended to.

Jeff Weaver's not a bad pitcher. He may very well be a good pitcher. But this year, he wasn't, especially in the second half. Hit unlucky, distracted, poorly supported by his defense, whatever. He had an awful season. Hey, maybe he'll turn it around in October, maybe he'll live up to his potential, and maybe he'll be valuable. Maybe Jeff Weaver will throw three strong innings, and you'll win the game. And maybe that girl I've been pining over for months will have a change of heart and decide that she loves me, after all. But I probably shouldn't be counting on that, and showing up at her door with a dozen red roses.

And Jeff Weaver shouldn't be in a game if there's another option, and he might not even deserve to be on the postseason roster (DePaula was up before September 1, right? How about him?). The situation for Weaver to be in the game would be once everyone else was used. Contreras, White, Heredia, Hammond, Nelson--and even Rivera. Torre probably made a mistake Tuesday night leaving Rivera in to finish the ninth with a five-run lead, and he definitely made a mistake not bringing him in for the bottom of the ninth last night. What are you saving Rivera for? A lead you might never get? Tomorrow? When you might not win, let alone need your closer?

It was a tied game, and you couldn't afford to give up a single run. As I said, if you're gonna lose, you lose with your best on the mound, and Mariano Rivera is the Yankees' best. You bring in Rivera for two innings in the ninth, Contreras for three in the 11th, and then you go down the list--and when there's nobody left, and you need someone who can go several innings, then you go to Weaver. Only then.

The most frustrating thing to me is that, had the Yankees not brought in Weaver, they probably would have won the game. Do you really think that Florida bullpen was going to keep holding the Yankees scoreless, inning after inning? I don't.

And now you can see the Marlins winning this series, maybe. Their next two games are against lefties, David Wells and Andy Pettitte, and the Marlins kill lefties, for the most part. They're unlikely to sweep--I think they're unlikely to win either game, but they can, and then it goes to Game Seven, and Josh Beckett. And when you've got a pitcher like Beckett on the mound, you've got a chance to win. Florida snuck away with one today, because Pavano pitched great, Clemens had one bad inning, and Joe Torre made some foolish decisions. But once again, a win's a win, and both teams now have two.

Ralph Terry was redeemed, as was Mariano Rivera, and Byung-Hyun Kim, sort of. But Ralph Branca and Mitch Williams were not. Gonzalez's HR wasn't as big as those, and won't be remembered as those were--even in South Florida, were they've already forgotten that the Marlins won last night--but if the Yankees lose this series, Jeff Weaver will become a pariah in New York, and he'll have to live with the thought that he cost his team the World Series, just like Buckner was blamed for costing the Red Sox the World Series. But just like Buckner, his mistake didn't lose the series, and it didn't lose a win. And just like Buckner, Weaver shouldn't have been in there. If the Yankees lose this series, I hope people remember that. Joe Torre set him up to fail--there was nothing to be gained by having him in that situation, and everything to lose. He shouldn't have been in there.

--posted at 2:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Wednesday, October 22, 2003

Lucky and good: New York 6, Florida 1
by Larry Mahnken

Sure, everyone was hoping for the Red Sox and Cubs to make it to the World Series, guaranteeing that one of those star-crossed franchises would win their first World Series since the days when Presidents were elected based on issues. Everyone was probably pulling for those two teams to win just so the rest of us wouldn't have to hear their fans whining anymore, but it's probably for the best that they didn't, as most of those fans probably don't understand that nine decades of whining kind of limits the amount of gloating we're willing to put up with when they finally do win.

What everyone's desire for the Sox/Cubs series caused us to miss was the real Cinderella story, the Florida Marlins. In late May, they were 10 games under .500, and their ace pitcher had been knocked out of action thanks to the wacky antics of Jeff Torborg, whose parents were apparently killed by a young pitcher. But they finally go rid of Torborg, and replaced him with Jack McKeon, former manager of the Royals, A's, Reds, Padres and Knickerbockers, and in late May, their season began to turn around.

Sure, they really had no business being in the playoffs, coming in the backdoor that was reserved for teams that were actually good. But they finished with the best record of any team that didn't actually win it's division--and a better record than two teams that did--and knocked off the defending NL Champions in four games, and then came back from a 3-1 deficit, and a 3-0 deficit with 5 outs to go in Game 6 to defeat the Cubs, and advance to play the Yankees in the World Series.

But sometimes, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin, the mice get eaten by a cat, and Cinderella gets her head lopped off by a light saber. Sure, the Series is only 2-1, but the Yankees have almost completely manhandled the Marlins in the first three games. Florida has scored only five runs in the first three games, and collected a grand total of 3 extra-base hits, all doubles, all last night, and one of which would have been an out against any team with a half-decent defense. The Yankees had most of the breaks go their way last night: a bad stop at third base on Pudge Rodriguez by Ozzie Guillen, and a foolish attempt to score by Pudge later that inning, a terrible call for ball four on a 3-2 count with the bases loaded and two outs for the Yankees, and a 39-minute rain delay that may have prevented Florida's ace from pitching a complete game. But the Yankees didn't just win because they were lucky, they won because the Fish weren't lucky.

People have made a connection between this series and the 1960 World Series, where the Pirates won 4 close games from the Yankees, the last on Bill Mazeroski's HR, and lost 3 blowouts. History, of course, is not cyclical, nor is history cyclical, and history is not cyclical, either, but that series, the most obvious case of how a short series can go to an inferior team, shows that the Marlins can win this series, even though the Yankees are a superior team on paper. They have to win the close games.

Except the Yankees are better equipped to win the close games than the Marlins are. Sure, Florida utilizes one-run strategies better than New York does, but while that helps them score in more of their opportunities, it also makes them likely score fewer runs overall, putting the outcome of the game even more in the hands of their pitchers.

Aside from Josh Beckett, none of Florida's starters can match the Yankees' starters, particularly considering the quality of lineup they have to face. Sometimes, like Saturday, a mediocre starter can give you a strong outing, and put the game in the hands of your bullpen, but the Yankees are stronger there, too. Florida lacks a strong situational lefty, forcing McKeon to send Dontrelle Willis out to the pen to try and do the job. Willis pitched strong in Game One, but last night walked two and gave up a single in the crucial eighth inning. If the Marlins do get the lead late in the game, they turn to Braden Looper and Ugueth Urbina, neither of whom is especially reliable. The Yankees, on the other hand, have Jeff Nelson, who is almost useless versus lefty batters, but still dominates righties. And if you get the game to the eighth with the lead, Mariano is about as close to a sure thing as you can get from a pitcher, having failed only twice in his long postseason career.

Even if the breaks had gone Florida's way last night, had there been no rain, had Pudge scored from second and Posada struck out, they still might have lost. I just can't see Florida scoring a bunch of runs off of the Yankees, and in most cases, the Marlins are going to have to go through their extremely shaky middle relief to get to Looper and Urbina, something the Yankees' hitters should be feasting on before this series is over--the feast may have already begun last night.

If the Marlins had won last night, I might see them as having a chance to win this series, but I still think the Yankees would have won. Now, they have to rely on two hittable righties and a lefty who doesn't scare the Yankees to do what they couldn't do tonight, and win two of three just to get the series back into Josh Beckett's hands. I just can't see that happening. Really, I think they'd be lucky just to get this back to New York.

--posted at 9:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Monday, October 20, 2003

New York 6, Florida 1
by Larry Mahnken

Almost nobody picked the Marlins to beat the Giants, but they did. Of course, if Jose Cruz, Jr. hadn't dropped that ball, or if J.T. Snow hadn't tried to score from second on a single to left, it might have been the Giants who won the series, and maybe in four games.

Almost nobody picked the Marlins to beat the Cubs--almost nobody wanted the Marlins to beat the Cubs--and when the Cubs went up 3-1 in the series with Prior and Wood pitching two of the last three, everyone wrote the Marlins off. And yet they won. Of course, the Cubs were an 88-win team, and they still would have won the series if Dusty Baker knew how to handle pitchers. And even if he didn't, they would have won if he had Mariano Rivera.

Hey, the Marlins are a good team, they won 91 games in the regular season, and they had the best record in baseball for the past few months. But the Cubs are not the Yankees, and the Giants are not the Yankees. And the Marlins are not the Red Sox. As much as everyone wants to spin it to make it more exciting, the Yankees are a much better team than Florida. They have a better lineup than Florida, they have a better rotation than Florida, and they have a better bullpen than Florida.

That doesn't mean that the Marlins can't win, lesser teams than them have beaten greater teams than the Yankees, and their style of play does a good job of exposing New York's defense, which helped Anaheim beat the Yankees last October. Of course, without the great relief pitching and big home runs, Anaheim wouldn't have beaten New York last season.

For Florida to win, they need the breaks to go their way. They need to score lucky runs, like the three they pushed across Saturday, and keep the Yankees from taking advantage of scoring opportunities. They need to hit better than they have--they haven't gotten a single extra base hit in two games--and they need to ignore the "little ball" hype. Florida got past San Francisco and Chicago by creating runs, not manufacturing them, and they need to keep doing it.

And they need to win Tuesday. Josh Beckett is a legitimately great starter--probably the only one Florida has--and the Yankees should have trouble putting runs on the board against him. Of course, Mike Mussina is also a legitimately great starter, and the Marlins are going to have just as much trouble putting runs up against him. It doesn't mean anything that Florida now has "home field advantage"--home teams are 16-18 in the postseason, the Yankees are 4-4 at home and 4-1 on the road, and had the best road record in baseball this year. They won two straight in the freaking Metrodome, I think they can handle Pro Player Stadium.

* * *

Quick thoughts:

- Was this the last time we'll see Andy Pettitte as a Yankee? I'm pretty close to 100% sure that's a negative, and not just because this series will likely go six or more games. Andy Pettitte wants to come back next year, the Yankees are going to need a starter like him next year, and it's unlikely that any team will be able to offer him enough money to pry him away. However, he is a free agent, so you never know. But I think it's probable that Pettitte will finish his career as a Yankee.

- What is up with Hideki Matsui against NL teams? During interleague play this season, in 77 PAs (BEEP! BEEP! BEEP!) Matsui's line was .493/.558/.881/1.439. 1.439!!! That's Barry Bonds on a hot streak!!! Even more incredible is that his line versus the AL was .263/.327/.381/.708. His OPS vs. the NL was DOUBLE his OPS vs. the AL. That's insane. I don't know why Matsui hits so well vs. the NL, but he appears to be continuing the trend, going 4 for 8 in the first two games with a homer. If he keeps it up, and the Yankees win, he looks like a good pick for MVP.

- I love Nick Johnson, but there's no question that Jason Giambi should be starting in Florida. Nick's a great hitter, but Giambi's still much better, and while both have struggled in the postseason so far, Giambi's struggles haven't been as great as Nick's.

- Aaron Boone made a mental error in Game One that gave the Marlins a run, and might have cost the Yankees the game. He made two errors last night, the last of which cost Andy Pettitte the shutout. But I'm not upset, because I really don't think the Yankees would have won on Thursday if he hadn't hit that home run right then.

- If the Yankees win this series, and the last game is a blowout, does Joe Torre bring in Roger Clemens to get the last out?

- A guy at work today said that even when the Yankees were down 5-2 to Pedro and five outs away from losing, he had no doubt that they'd win. I told him that was too bad, because if he's telling the truth, he couldn't have enjoyed the victory nearly as much as I did. Winning is far more fun when you don't expect it.

--posted at 7:43 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Sunday, October 19, 2003

Letdown: Florida 3, New York 2
by Larry Mahnken

I don't know about anyone else, but for the first few innings of last night's game, it didn't feel like the World Series. Obviously, when your team has been in the World Series 6 times in the past eight seasons, you do get used to the way the games feel. But this was different, almost like a mid-summer game against Toronto, and it didn't feel like winning was that important.

It was, to use a sports cliche, a letdown. There was no way that last night's game could match the emotional high of Thursday, and it was almost as though my emotions shut down for a couple of days, knowing that if I allowed myself to invest myself emotionally in the outcome I could only be disappointed, and hurt, because it couldn't match the joy of Thursday.

Maybe the Yankees to a degree felt the same way, or maybe some of them did, but I doubt it. I criticize Joe Torre's in-game decision making incessantly, but he's an exceptional manager of men, and there is no doubt in my mind that he, and Derek Jeter, reminded the team on Friday that beating Boston was not what they're getting paid for. There is still more work to be done.

They didn't get the job done last night, falling 3-2 to Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis and a predictably shaky Ugueth Urbina. There is plenty of criticism to go around--and believe me, I'll get to it--but the failures of the team last night was not because they came out flat. They just plain failed.

Florida was pretty lucky to win last night, which is not to say that they didn't play well--they played excellent baseball--but that the formula they followed last night is not one that's likely to win them this series. They will have to play better than they did, and differently than they did to win, and they likely will. But getting a few bloop singles, bunting runners over...no matter what Joe Morgan thinks, if that's how they play this series, they're going to have to shut the Yankees' offense down every game to win, and they still might lose. It's not how they beat San Francisco, and it's not how they beat Chicago.

But it is how they beat the Yankees last night, and a win from a bad formula counts the same as a win with a good formula--and more than a loss with any formula. Brad Penny was surprisingly strong, and the Yankees' failed to come through with the big hit in several situations. But they did create those situations, and ultimately, it should pay off. They just have to hope that Florida hasn't stolen a couple more games before it does.

But then again, the Yankees have seemed unable to get the big hit all season long. I think a large part of that has to be lineup construction, particularly the insistence of Joe Torre in batting Bernie Williams cleanup, which might be more ridiculous than Soriano batting leadoff. Coming off of knee surgery, Bernie has hardly displayed any power this season--last night's home run was only his 4th extra base hit this postseason, he's only slugging .422--but he's still getting on base at a decent rate, because he still has an excellent eye.

Torre made a bold move in dropping Jason Giambi to the seventh spot for Game Seven on the ALCS, and it was, in my opinion, a good move, getting Giambi out of pressure situations, so he wouldn't hurt the team as much if he failed. He didn't fail, he hit two home runs off of Pedro Martinez.

But rather than bring Giambi right back up to the third spot, he left him batting seventh. If he was doing it just because "it worked" it would be silly, but the reasoning that it was only one game, and he may not be out of his slump yet tells you that it's probably not an awful move to leave him there. I'd still move him back up, but Torre's decision is defensible.

But his decision to leave Soriano and Williams where they are is not. Williams isn't hitting for any power, and his singles are moving runners from first to third rather than bringing them home, leaving it up to other people to finish the job. The Yankees would be better served moving Bernie up in the lineup, where his ability to get on base makes him a better asset, and the people who are capable of moving people up will get more opportunities to do so.

Soriano, on the other hand, isn't doing anything. He's not hitting for power, he's not hitting at all. He's not getting on base. He's not moving runners up. He's not making things happen. He's been worthless this October.

So, of course, let's give him more plate appearances than anyone else on the team. No better way to start the game than with an out. On one pitch.

Leaving him batting leadoff is insane. While he's ice cold like this, he's killing the team, and when he's hot, a lot of his value is wasted. Michael Kay may marvel at all of Soriano's leadoff home runs, but I look at every one of those HRs as a lost opportunity. Had Soriano been batting lower in the order, perhaps someone would have been on when he hit those. For some of them, at least, someone would have been.

It's obvious that Soriano is lost at the plate, looking for fastballs in the strike zone. Throw him a changeup in the zone, he'll swing and miss, throw him a breaking ball that leaves the zone, he'll swing and miss. Throw him one that breaks into the zone...he'll take it for a strike. He's looking for heat over the plate, and nobody's that stupid, he's not going to get it.

And yet, he keeps batting leadoff. Because Torre thinks that there's a real psychological advantage to a leadoff home run (scoring the first run of the game isn't any more important than scoring the second one), thinks that speed on the bases is important high in the order (it isn't), and that he doesn't have a better leadoff option (he has at least three). I don't expect it will ever do any good, but I'm going to keep saying it: batting Soriano leadoff is idiotic.

Well, it's one game, I'm not too worried right now. Andy Pettitte's a lefty, but should do fine against the Marlins tonight, and Mark Redman doesn't really scare me. I think they'll win this one.

* * *

MLB has a rule that an umpire can't work consecutive postseason series. I'm not sure why, but I suppose it's in the Collective Bargaining Agreement with the umpires. MLB also doesn't assign umpires by performance, and the umpires are fighting MLB's use of the Questec system to evaluate calls of balls and strikes.

I've never been in favor of an electronic ball and strike calling system. I like the human element in the game, and arguing a close call is fun. But then there's this:

I don't know if you can pick up the ball in that picture, it's the faint white streak just to the left of Posada's right shoe. That was the pitch called strike two with two outs in the eighth inning with runners on first and third. That ball was not a strike. It wasn't anything close to being a strike. It was at least six inches off of the plate--I measured it. It showed up better on TV, but take a close look at the faint white line under the white streak: IT WAS IN THE BATTER'S BOX.

Now, if that was outside, I suppose I could accept that. The umpire is seeing it from the side, not straight on, so missing by a few inches is understandable. But take a look at Randy Marsh's head. It's right over the inside of the plate, right where it should be. The key to this is that from his perspective--right on the inside boundary of the strike zone, the pitch was to his right. And not a tiny bit to his right, it was to the right of his entire head. Visualize yourself back there, a 100 mph fastball coming in, all you see is a fraction of a second, a white streak. Visualize yourself standing right where Randy Marsh is standing, and how the pitch would look from that perspective.

There's no way you could call that a strike. But Marsh did, probably because he decided that he was going to call his own strike zone last night, and that it was going to be 12 inches wider than the plate.

And some would say that as long as both teams get the same strike zone, then it's fair. First of all, it's not fair--it's unfair to the batters, it's simply unfair to the batters on both teams. Secondly, it's not the umpire's job to decide what is or isn't fair, it's the umpire's job to enforce the rules, period. It's the job of the rules to make things fair, and what the rules have determined is that it is fair to both the batters and the pitchers for the strike zone to be from the batter's knees to his letters, and over the plate.

My regular job is making bagels. There are three requirements for a bagel to be a bagel. It has to be round with a hole in it, it has to be boiled, and it has to be baked. If I decided to ball the bagels up, they wouldn't be bagels, they'd be balls of bagel dough, boiled and baked. And I'd lose my job. If I decided to bake them and not boil them, they'd look like bagels, but they wouldn't be chewy inside, and they wouldn't be bagels. And I'd lose my job. If I decided to boil them and not bake them, well, they'd be soft rings of dough, and that wouldn't be very appetizing. And I'd lose my job.

But if an umpire decides to redefine something as clearly defined as what a strike is, he doesn't get fired. Or reprimanded. Or, if the umpires had it their way, even told that he's doing it wrong. No, he gets to work the World Series.

I'm not bitching that this call cost us the game, it didn't. If called properly, the count would have been 3-1 on Posada with two outs and two on, and Posada did strike out one pitch later, but you don't know what would have happened. he might have walked, and Giambi would have made an out. The Yankees have had bad calls go there way before, that's not the point. Sometimes an umpire makes a mistake--like when a 12-year old kid interferes with a fly ball and the ump calls it a home run--but that happens. It's not a redefining of the rules, but rather an error. But what umpires do behind the plate is redefine the rules to suit their own whims. They're not calling a ball six inches off the plate a strike because they made a mistake and didn't see that it was a ball, they're doing it because they've decided that's how they want it to be. They've decided that they'd rather just boil the bagels, and skip the baking. And that's not only wrong, it's inexcusable.

--posted at 3:30 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Saturday, October 18, 2003

And this, too, shall pass away
by Larry Mahnken

It is said an eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him with the words, "And this, too, shall pass away." How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!

-Abraham Lincoln

Aaron Freakin' Boone. I still can't believe it.

Thursday seemed like waiting for an execution, knowing that it was going to happen, but hoping for a call from the Governor, and a miraculous pardon. And that pardon came, but it wasn't until your head had been shaved, you were strapped into the chair, and they had their hand on the switch. Five outs away, three runs down, and the greatest pitcher on earth on the mound. And they won. I still can't believe that this happened.

The way it happened, the glorious comeback, the shocking home run, the utter joy that surged through me, makes the World Series almost an afterthought. If they lose--if they get swept, and crushed, it won't take away from the joy of that one moment, when the ball left Aaron Boone's bat, and I knew: they did it. I can't believe they did it.

But let's make sure that we appreciate this World Series, even if they don't win, even if they don't play well, because look around the American League, and look at the Yankees' roster. This could be it. The last stand for the great dynasty of the Yankees.

Boston's not going to fall into fourth place next year. They'll be back, and they'll be better. So will Toronto. The Yankees can't just glue the pieces of this roster back together and hope to snatch another title, and they can't just tack on a couple of free agent studs and think that it will work. They need to reevaluate the roster, and rebuild, and look to the future.

That doesn't mean that they have to stop trying to win, it means that they can't win with the same core in the same way. They can't just convince themselves that Alfonso Soriano is going to be a good defensive second baseman, or that the combination of him and Jeter up the middle is anything close to acceptable for a team trying to win titles. They can't let Bernie fade away in center field, turning outs into singles and singles into doubles. They can't keep trading away their prospects for mediocre third basemen who need to hit dramatic home runs to validate the transaction. They need to rearrange the pieces they have, and instead of finding a piece that looks nice and they can jam into the puzzle, they need to find the right pieces that complement the pieces they have.

And in doing that, the results might equal disaster. The pieces might not come together, and the team might collapse. But if they keep going like they have, the team will slowly decline into mediocrity, and when they get there, they've still got to make the moves to turn themselves around. No, they have to turn around now, to make success a possibility, instead of making decline a certainty.

I don't know if it's going to happen, they might be even better next season than they were this year. But they might not be, and it might be many years before we see the Yankees in the Series again. So we'd better appreciate it.

Of course, a victory would be much nicer than defeat, at least for us Yankees fans. A Red Sox fan at work asked me during last Saturday's game "aren't you sick of them winning all the time?"

Uh, no.

Oh yeah, I'm really sick of my team winning. I'd be so much happier if they lost. Especially to our arch-rivals. Because they wouldn't gloat or anything. Rivals are always respectful towards one another. Anyone who's sick of their team winning (as I understand it, David Pinto knows such a fan) is missing the point. The point isn't to have one title, or even to win the most titles. It's to win THIS title. You won last year? Hey, that's great. As soon as you're eliminated this season, it doesn't matter anymore. Go ahead and enjoy all your past glories in the offseason, but when the games are being played, the only thing that matters is winning the World Series this year.

I can understand fans who don't get upset when their team doesn't win, or comes close and falls short. That's fine--that's HEALTHY. But not caring if they WIN? Not WANTING them to win? That's...stupid. What's the point of being a fan then?

But I digress. Can they win? Well, yeah, but it's not going to be a cakewalk.

The Marlins beat the 100-win Giants in four games, but then the Giants' lineup, outside of Bonds, wasn't that impressive, and neither was their rotation, outside of Schmidt. They beat the Cubs in seven, and while Wood and Prior are great pitchers, they didn't have much of a lineup, either.

The Yankees have a great lineup. They've played like garbage in the postseason, but Thursday's victory may have awoken their most dangerous bat, Jason Giambi. Giambi hit two home runs off of Pedro Martinez--who allowed 7 all year. One went into the black, the other fell just short of it, and those followed a first inning homer off of John Burkett in Game 6. Maybe it was just a couple of lucky swings, but if Giambi is hot in the World Series, you can throw out every other factor, the Marlins are done. When he's good, he's really that good.

The Yankees can't count on that happening, though. Derek Jeter was excellent in the first round, not so good in the ALCS, but you can expect him to be solid again in the World Series. Bernie Williams is inexplicably batting fourth in the postseason, but at least he's still getting on base somewhat. But he needs to get a couple of extra base hits to justify pushing Posada to fifth in the lineup. Nick Johnson wasn't good in the first two rounds, but the Yankees will likely miss his bat all the same in the three middle games of the series. And Aaron Boone...well, it was just one home run. I hope he'll keep hitting them, but in all likelihood, you're not going to get much from him. He's had his Tino moment.

The pitching staff comes into the series a bit screwed up by Game Seven, and as a result David Wells will be the Game One starter. On one hand, he's been great this October, but on the other hand, Florida kills lefties. If he's not sharp, this could get ugly.

Except Brad Penny isn't exactly making the Yankees shake in their cleats. A large part of the Yankees' offensive struggles in October has to be Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez and Tim Wakefield when his knuckeball was dancing. Brad Penny is none of those pitchers, and while he's no John Burkett, the Yankees are more likely to hit him like Burkett rather than the others. The only starter Florida has that really fits in with that group is Josh Beckett. For all the talk about Florida's pitching, they gave up 6 runs a game to the Cubs, for goodness sake.

What Florida won with is their offense, which is the only thing that scares me about the Marlins. They're a team that doesn't strike out or walk, they put the ball in play, and try to make things happen. Remind you of anyone? Yep, that was the Angels formula last season.

Except the Angels had a more balanced lineup with lefties and righties, and a much better bullpen than Florida's. The Marlins did well against the Cubs, but Chicago lacked any real lefty threats in their lineup, which allowed the Marlins to hide their lack of a solid matchup lefty in the pen. Florida doesn't have any real lefties in their lineup, either (Pierre and maybe Hollandsworth), which somewhat pushes Gabe White and Felix Heredia out of the picture and makes Jeff Nelson and Jose Contreras huge. Torre is also deactivating either Erick Almont-E or David Dellucci to get Chris Hammond on the roster, recognizing that his changeup is extremely effective against righty batters. While Hammond was essentially abandoned in the last month of the season, he could play a crucial role in the World Series.

Florida's lack of a matchup lefty will probably cost them at least one game. The Yankees as a team hit far better against lefties than righties, and Jason Giambi's split was particularly extreme (1.022/.718).

Anaheim kept the game away from Mariano Rivera in every game last postseason but the one they lost, and for the Marlins to have a chance, they need to do that, too. Joe Torre isn't going to make the foolish decisions that cost the Cubs the pennant, mostly because Mariano Rivera is a guy who makes it easy to pull your starter in the eighth. Florida needs to beat up on the Yankees' starting pitching and hope that the Yankees' offense continues to hibernate for another week. Otherwise, they have no chance.

I think they'll get to David Wells tonight, but I don't think that Brad Penny is going to shut down the Yankees' offense like Boston and Minnesota did. This should be a high-scoring series in the games Boomer and Pettitte pitch, and I feel good about the Yankees coming out on top in the end. It would be nice to see it come back to the Stadium for a clincher, and to give Roger Clemens a fond farewell, so I'll tack on one more win than I really think Florida will get: Yankees in Six.

--posted at 12:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Friday, October 17, 2003

Miracle in The Bronx: New York 6, Boston 5
by Larry Mahnken

Several hours ago, I was questioning the wisdom of remaining a baseball fan. I place far too much importance on the outcome of a game played by other men, and give that game for too much power over my emotional well being. I take the losses far too hard to be healthy for me, and the joy that I once got out of a mid-summer victory is no longer there.

In 1996, when the ball landed in Charlie Hayes's glove, I wept, joyful that I had finally gotten to see my favorite team win the championship. In '98, my reaction was bland, as it was not new, and was somewhat anticlimactic after a 114-win season. '99 was another anticlimactic victory, the ALCS was the real pleasure of that season. 2000 was nice, because it was the Mets, but it wasn't the same.

The childlike joy that I felt when Mel Hall made me an eternal baseball fan with a line-drive home run off of Jeff Reardon on Memorial Day was no more. Sure, I was happy when they won, always happy, but the defeats weighed more heavily on me than they did in that 91-loss season of 1991.

And facing elimination at the hands of the Red Sox, the hated rival, and facing the taunts of the many Red Sox fans at my workplace, I began to wonder if it was worth it anymore. I love baseball, but I love it too much, and I ask for too much out of it. More than it could every possibly give me ever again.

Or so I thought.

I didn't see the eighth inning, but I heard it. I was...occupied in another room at the time. But that fabulous inning didn't give me the joy that you thought it might, because I was still nervous about losing, and all the miseries that would entail. The next three innings were torture on my nerves, because I now knew that I couldn't just turn the TV off and not see the Red Sox celebrate their AL title, because it would be close, and the Yankees would have a chance.

Rivera came in. I felt...less nervous, but still on edge. Rivera pitched three effective innings, but the Yankees were unable to end the game in the ninth or the tenth. Meanwhile, the Red Sox brought in knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who needed only for the Red Sox to score another run to be named MVP. Facing a pitcher they hadn't touched all series, I began to despair. He wasn't going to tire, he'd be in there until the sun came up.

And after the 11th, the Yankees would have to lift Rivera, and put a less appealing reliever in his place: Jose Contreras, Gabe White, or if worse came to worst, Jeff Weaver. It seemed that the Yankees' last chance to win had come, and it would be up to Aaron Boone, Karim Garcia and Alfonso Soriano.

Garcia had a decent series, coming up with big hits in Games 3 and 5, and taking a pitch off the "back" to start the hubub in Boston last Saturday. But I couldn't see him doing anything with the knuckleball. Nor could I see Alfonso Soriano doing anything with anything, he had lost all discipline, and was now swinging at anything that came out of the pitcher's hand, be it the ball or the resin bag. And Aaron Boone...

Well, Aaron Boone sucks. In August, the Yankees had traded their last good prospect, Brandon Claussen, for Boone and, technically, Gabe White. The move further inspired them to trade third baseman Robin Ventura to the Dodgers, where he proceeded to put up what were, for Dodger Stadium, decent numbers. Meanwhile, Boone did nothing. He hit a big home run in Baltimore, but that was, well, against Baltimore. Against quality competition, he was incompetent, and the rage we felt at his accquistion was being justified almost nightly by weak plate appearances.

And his play in the postseason was even worse--almost as bad as his play in the first weeks after the trade. Benching him in Game 3 and Game 7 to play Enrique Wilson against Pedro Martinez was wholly excusable. If you've got a hunch that someone can get a couple of hits against the greatest pitcher of his generation, it's all right to bench an offensive zero like Boone. Of course, it appeared early on that the Yankees were going to pay for benching Boone, as Enrique Wilson threw a ball into the stands on a routine play, giving the Red Sox a run.

Still, going into the postseason I thought he could do something of some value. I wrote:

He is what he is, an average player, and as long as he stays what he is, he won't hurt the Yankees in the postseason, and could help if he hits a homer in a key spot.

I also told sjohnny that I could see him having a "Tino Martinez" moment in the postseason (a huge hit that forgives horrible play the rest of the series).

But when Boone came up in the 11th, I had no hope of him doing anything. I don't know if it was a bad knuckleball by Wakefield (other than being right over the middle of the plate), or Admiral Ackbar's fortuitous appearance in a commercial (he appeared before the 8th inning in Game 6 of the NLCS, too), but a miracle happened.

Aaron Boone hit a home run. Aaron Fucking Boone, as he will forever be known in Boston.

I immediately started crying. "I can't believe it, I can't believe that happened," I said to myself. I still start crying with joy when I think of it. I can't believe it. It was, perhaps, the greatest moment I have ever experienced as a sports fan. Pure joy.

And that's why we come back, because sometimes, when you think it's over, it's not, and sometimes, something you never thought could happen, but fondly hoped would happen, does. The worst player on the field can be the biggest hero, and all your dreams can come true.

But I can't help but feel for the Red Sox fans, who had to feel they had this one in the bag, and could see the end of 85 years of frustration not very far away. Okay, not too bad, but I do feel somewhat sorry that they had to lose this way, again. I tip my cap to the 2003 Boston Red Sox, who I still believe had the best team in baseball, but came up short. And I will not indulge in any vainglory before them, I will treat them as I wanted them to treat me had they won--although I know they wouldn't have--and I know that my fellow Yankees fans probably won't, either.

That's okay, I suppose, it's every fan's right to brag about their team. And I've done my share, but not this time. Besides, half my readers are Red Sox fans. Don't piss off your audience.

And I still don't believe in curses. Boston will win a title before decade is out.

But not this one.

* * *

Oh, I know this is what you all came here for:

The trade was worth it. If Brandon Claussen wins ten Cy Young Awards, pitches five perfect games, cures cancer, finds Osama bin Laden and opens communications with the Brenlyite civilization in the Baker galaxy, it was worth it. If Aaron Boone never gets another hit as a Yankee, even if he costs them the World Series, it was worth it. Because this was the greatest moment I have ever had a baseball fan.

You don't suck, Boone. And I will never again say that you do.

--posted at 1:57 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Thursday, October 16, 2003

Crushed: Boston 9, New York 6
by Larry Mahnken

Well, you didn't think they'd finish the Red Sox off that easily, did you?

After 25 games, most closely contested, these two teams now square off in one final meeting, Game Seven, the one that will decide it all. But it didn't have to come to this. It shouldn't have come to this.

It's been several hours since Game 6 ended, and I still have no heart to write about it. It feels as though the Yankees have lost their chance, that they've already lost the series. I felt this way going into Game Four last season, Game Five in 1995 and 1997. Defeat seems an almost forgone conclusion. The Yankees, particularly at the plate, have played a terrible series. Really, how many good at-bats have you seen the Yankees' batters have? They've mostly scored on mistakes by the Boston pitchers, not by working counts and looking for their pitch. They've stopped batting and they've commenced trying to hit, and they've wasted many of the few scoring opportunities they've had by trying to do too much.

They did beat Pedro, but it was the only time that Pedro has ever lost a postseason game, and he pitched, by his standards, poorly. He's not going to throw offspeed pitches all game, and hang breaking balls over the plate, he's going to hit his spots, keep the Yankees off-balance, and as long as they keep batting like they have, he's going to go at least seven, by which time, it should all be decided.

The only chance for the Yankees is Clemens, pitching to save his career. He's come through big for the Yankees several times before: in Game 4 of the 2000 ALCS and Game 2 of the 2000 World Series, in Game 5 of the 2001 ALDS and Games 3 and 7 of the 2001 World Series. And he has to do it one more time, shut the Red Sox down for seven innings, hope the Yankees can scratch a run or two, and give the ball to Rivera.

Torre's decision to use Rivera for two on Tuesday didn't burn the Yankees yesterday, but his decision to not warm anybody up until the damage had been done to Jose Contreras in the seventh killed the Yankees. Gabe White gave up a nail-in-the-coffin homer to Trot Nixon in the ninth, but it appears that Torre gave up on White long ago, for no apparent reason. Other than Rivera, Contreras and Heredia, Torre seems unwilling to give the ball to anyone in the bullpen, although Jeff Nelson has curiously found his way back into the mix in the past few games.

But where this game will be decided tonight is with Clemens. If someone other than Clemens or Rivera is pitching tonight, the game is probably lost for New York.

I can't write any more, I'm too upset by the outcome of yesterday's game. With the Florida Marlins waiting to be crushed, this game will likely determine who wins the World Series.

Worst of all, if the season ends tomorrow, it will end with there likely being no great moment to remember this season by. If you can recall one, please remind me. I'd love to know.

--posted at 12:25 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Wednesday, October 15, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

I refuse to link to the article, but the Chicago Sun-Times has outed the fan who interfered with the ball.

I will never again read the Chicago Sun-Times, or go to the website. This is shameful journalism. I am disgusted.

Here is the feedback page of the Chicago Sun-Times to complain, and here are the email addresses of the writers who did the story:

Annie Sweeney
Frank Main
Chris Fusco

--posted at 12:47 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

A Day to Remember--and the Yankees and Red Sox Played, Too!: New York 4, Boston 2
by Larry Mahnken

I don't believe in curses. Boston and Chicago have failed because of bad management, bad luck, and quality opposition standing in their way, not one bad trade or a stupid goat. It doesn't matter if the Red Sox and Cubs never win, or how they lose, I won't believe in curses. It belittles the teams that do win.

But I do feel bad for the Cubs, and their fans, and one fan in particular. Sure, he was stupid to stick his hand out there, but if the Cubs lose tonight, that man will have to live the rest of his life with the burden of blame, that he might have cost his team a Pennant, and a World's Championship. Sure, it wasn't a certain catch, and it wouldn't have ended the inning, but it would have changed things, and if everything else had gone the same, Jeff Conine's fly ball would have ended the inning, and it would have been 3-2 Cubs going to the ninth. We saw his face on national television several times--will ultimately see it thousands of times--and his face will be printed in every sports section and on websites, and columns will be written in ever paper about how he cost the Cubs the pennant. And he will have to live with it until the day he dies. It is a terrible, terrible burden, and nothing he hears from any fan will be worse than his inner torment.

We've seen his face, but I hope that the media has the good taste to not seek out his name, and if they find it, not print it. There is no need for any of us to ever know that man's name. But I'm sure that some reporter somewhere will be making calls and asking around, trying to find out that man's name, so he can help his own career. And dozens of other reporters, not wanting to get scooped, are making the same effort. And there's no need for it. It's despicable, making an active effort to ruin a man's life for a tiny, irrelevant scrap of information that adds nothing to the story.

So was this 1986? 1929? 1984?

Cubs fans have to hope that it's 1975, when the Reds came back from Bernie Carbo and Carlton Fisk's dramatics to clinch their first title in 35 years. With Kerry Wood on the mound against Mark Redman--remember, the Cubs kill lefties--they have a chance. I don't believe in curses, and momentum is only as good as your starting pitcher. The Cubs can overcome this. I hope they do.

* * *

In 1998, the Yankees had about as perfect a season as a team could have, winning 114 regular season games, sweeping the World Series, winning a record 125 games in total. They had a great lineup, a great bench, a great rotation, a great bullpen, and their defense was actually pretty good back then. They were quite possibly the most perfect team ever assembled.

But they almost lost in the ALCS. Looking back, a 4-2 series win doesn't seem that closely contested, but the Yankees entered Game 5 of that series trailing 2-1, having lost on a stupid play by Chuck Knoblauch in Game 2, and getting smacked around a bit in Game 3. (By the way, if the Yankees had lost that series, considering the ridiculous importance people place on the postseason as a measure of a team, would the 89-win Indians have been considered better than the 114-win Yankees? Anyone who thinks that should be lobotomized.)

The Yankees avoided falling behind 3-1, and perhaps saved their season, behind the brilliant pitching of "rookie" Orlando Hernandez, who allowed only 7 baserunners and no runs in over 7 innings. El Duque's heroics are remembered by Yankees fans, but often forgotten is the game that followed, which was nearly as crucial for the Yankees as Game Four. David Wells, the Yankees' best pitcher that season, wasn't as perfect as Hernandez, giving back two of the three runs he started the game with right away in the first inning. But he held the Indians to only three runs into the eighth, and struck out 11 (Boomer actually used to strike out some guys back then). The Yankees won 5-3, and came back to New York and finished the Tribe behind David Cone, and moved on to beat the Padres.

Yesterday, David Wells faced a situation just as--probably more important than the one he faced in 1998. He isn't the same pitcher he was five seasons ago, but with the Yankees' season on the line, he came through once again, and was probably better than he was back when he was the ALCS MVP.

Four hits, two walks. Eight baserunners in seven innings, and one run--and that was off of a home run by Manny Ramirez.

While Boomer was shutting down the Greatest Offense Ever™, the Yankees were getting the job done against Derek Lowe. They didn't pound him--they didn't even get an extra base hit--but they took advantage of opportunities, scoring three runs in the second with two outs, and tacking on an insurance run in the eighth--though Hideki Matsui did his best to hit into an inning-ending double play.

Torre's decision to use Rivera for two innings with a three run lead was questionable, Jose Contreras and Gabe White were perfectly capable of shutting down the Red Sox for an inning--maybe even two, if needed--but Torre decided not to take any chances, and went to his ace reliever to start the eighth. Rivera wasn't untouchable, but he was still damn good, giving up only two hits and a run, and sealing the Yankees' third win. The ultimate impact of Torre's choice of Rivera won't be determined until tomorrow night, when Rivera will certainly be available for one inning, perhaps four outs, but probably not more than that. With Andy Pettitte starting against John Burkett, and Contreras and White having been plenty rested, the game shouldn't come down to Mo in the eighth, but if it does, then Torre might have follied.

I don't have a major problem with Joe's pinch-running for Giambi in the eighth, either. Giambi has a very sore knee, hasn't hit at all in the postseason, and David Dellucci was far more likely to score an insurance run on a ball in the gap than Giambi was. Normally, when Giambi is close to healthy, or at least hitting well, this is a decision that I would jump all over Joe for, but in this case, it's an understandable move. I probably wouldn't have made it, but I won't criticize Torre any further than that.

And, of course, I owe an apology to Torre for a previous criticism that, as it turns out, was unfair.

In late September, as it became obvious that the Yankees were going to win the AL East, it was also becoming obvious that David Wells was going to be Torre's fourth starter in the postseason, over Jose Contreras, who, save one disastrous start in Fenway, had been far better than Wells down the stretch. I believed that Joe was going with Wells because of his veteran status (and perhaps that was the case), but that Contreras would be the superior option. With the back problems that Wells had experienced in the second half, and the fact that his pitching relied on the Yankees' horrid defense to turn balls in play into outs, rather than Contreras' style of keeping the ball out of play, that Wells was a far riskier choice than Contreras. I felt that Joe Torre was making a bad decision based on irrational distrust of Contreras, and an undeserved trust of Wells.

I was wrong. I was completely and totally wrong.

If David Wells's back was bothering him, it is true that he could have been crushed. But I'm just a guy in Upstate NY following the team on television and in print. Joe Torre deals with Boomer on a day-to-day basis, and deals directly with the trainers that monitor Wells's back. He knows far better than I do how Wells feels on gameday, and who's to say that he wouldn't pull Boomer from a start if his back was sore? If it wasn't, then he was probably right to go with Wells in the postseason, despite the fact that his style of pitching was unsuited to the Yankees' defense--or the artificial turf and roof of the Metrodome.

And that's because both Minnesota and Boston were appreciably worse versus lefthanded pitching than they were versus righthanded pitching, something that has become apparent in every game David Wells and Andy Pettitte have pitched. I can't imagine Contreras pitching as well as Wells has if he had started instead.

But that's not the only reason the decision was the correct one. Torre put Contreras in the bullpen, and didn't use him in the Division Series, but his lack of hesitation in bringing him into crucial situations in Games One, Two and Three of the ALCS shows that he never lacked any confidence in El Titan, but rather had a great deal of confidence in Wells. Contreras has become a valuable reliever in this series, and the decision to place him in the pen rather than Wells may be one of the deciding factors in the Yankees' favor.

So, bravo, Joe. I criticize you a lot, but you made absolutely the right decision in this situation, and I was wrong. My criticism was unfair, and I apologize.

This afternoon, Andy Pettitte looks to reprise his Game Two performance, or at least the least the second half of it. This is by no means a certain win--John Burkett is capable of shutting down the Yankees' bats (remember the late July start in Fenway...), Bad Andy might make an appearance, and Burkett is sure to be on a short leash anyway. They are unlikely to get more than a couple of runs off of him before seeing a different pitcher. The pressure is quite obviously on Boston, facing elimination with their worst postseason starter on the mound, but the pressure for the Yankees to finish itexpeditiouslyy, and avoid Pedro in Game 7 is enormous, too.

I will make no prediction, except for the fact that I sit in many uncomfortable positions on my couch, and at least once, swear quite loudly. And hopefully, I'll get a phone call from my Dad at game's end, and I'll spend the evening writing about the World Series--and hopefully how the Yankees match up against the Cubbies.

Hopefully.

--posted at 12:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Tuesday, October 14, 2003

Baseball Prospectus - Prospectus Today: The Politics of Glory
by Larry Mahnken

I've lost any ability to understand the Derek Jeter thing. For years, statheads who pointed out how Jeter ranked at or near the bottom of every defensive statistic every single year were derided for being critical of such a great player. I actually understood the difficulty in getting the idea across to people. Jeter is a smart, athletic player with excellent physical tools. He would often make good-looking plays, relying largely on his strong arm. It is hard to convince people that a player who looks very good isn't; the defensive metrics aren't easily explained and they come with many caveats, and there's an ingrained bias against evaluating defense with statistics.

Now, however, Jeter looks terrible. The Yankees give up hit after hit up the middle on balls that average shortstops handle easily, and it passes without mention. The standard line you hear is that Jeter's shoulder--the one he injured on Opening Day--is affecting his play. That may be so, but the fact is this is the same defense he played before the shoulder injury. He has had terrible footwork for his entire career, and I believe that his outsized defensive reputation has been a considerable barrier in getting him to improve that, actually.

That Tim McCarver can look at Derek Jeter and praise his defense is something I do not and cannot understand. This isn't about stats, it's about competence. If you can't look at Jeter and see that he's completely overmatched by the defensive demands of shortstop, then why should I believe anything you have to say about baseball? You've made up your mind based on a set of criteria that you believe is important, and which has little to do with how Derek Jeter plays shortstop.

And that's just a small part of a FANTASTIC article by Joe Sheehan. It's a free BP article, though the stuff behind the subscription is awesome as well. Make absolutely sure you read this.

--posted at 3:37 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Chair, Wall. Wall, Chair: Boston 3, New York 2
by Larry Mahnken

If anyone ever again says that they're sick of the Yankees getting all the breaks, take a tape of this game, and beat their brains in with it.

The Yankees had a chance tonight to put the Red Sox against the wall, to take a nearly insurmountable lead in the series, to take all the momentum from beating Pedro, and with their best pitcher on the mound, establish control of the American League Championship Series, and practically ensure a return to the World Series.

They didn't. The Yankees lost last night because they were outplayed; they were unlucky, but they also made poor decisions, and poor plays.

The bad luck came right away, in the top of the first inning. Tim Wakefield had trouble getting his knuckleball to dance, walked Soriano and gave up a bloop single to Derek Jeter. With first and second and nobody out, the Yankees had a great chance to take the lead, perhaps even start a rally. And Jason Giambi did exactly what was needed, hitting a ball on the nose--and right at Kevin Millar, who stepped on the bag for a rally-killing DP. Had the ball not been at Millar, Soriano would have easily scored, and Jeter may have as well. One run that would prove costly was lost, maybe two.

The second bad break came in the fifth, when the Yankees did score a run. With first and second and one out, Derek Jeter hit a hard ground ball down the third base line, which hit the bag and bounced high in the air, over Bill Mueller's head, and Nomar Garciaparra was unable to field it cleanly. David Dellucci scored from first, but because the ball was fielded so close the infield, Alfonso Soriano was only able to get to third. Had the ball bounced over the bag, or been slightly to the right of it, it would have gone to the wall in left, and Soriano would likely have scored easily. Instead, it was second and third with one out, and the Yankees had lost another costly run.

Of course, they did make poor plays, and failed to take advantage of opportunities, as well. In the first, Bernie Williams followed Giambi's double play with a walk, but Jorge Posada was unable to get an RBI single to bring Soriano home from second. With second and third and one out, the Yankees had the chance to score two runs with a single to anywhere but left. They couldn't even get that, as Giambi flied out to center, and Jorge Posada followed another Williams walk with a fly out to left.

And there were the mistakes of Alfonso Soriano and Willie Randolph. On Giambi's fly out, Randolph did not send Soriano, because the ball was hit very shallow. But Damon does not have a strong arm, and the throw was up the line, not to the plate. Had Randolph sent Soriano, he probably would have scored, and while it was a risk, the chances of Damon making an accurate throw were not tremendous, and the Yankees had obviously been having trouble scoring runs against Wakefield. And so the Yankees lost a chance to score a run.

Soriano's big mistake came in the seventh, with the bases loaded and one out--for Boston. Pinch-hitter Jason Varitek hit a sharp ground ball to Derek Jeter, who fielded it well, threw to Soriano, who relayed it on to first, where Varitek was safe by the smallest of margins. But Soriano's throw, while not a lollipop by any means, was not very strong, as if he felt he had plenty of time to throw. He could have thrown stronger, and certainly would have retired Varitek, but perhaps he was worried about throwing it away, and bringing home a fourth run. It's not a mistake worth crucifying him over, and Jeter and Soriano are not very good at turning the double play anyway, but most double play teams would have retired Varitek. And it gave Boston a run.

Finally, Soriano came up in the ninth, with two outs, with a chance to tie the game. Ruben Sierra hit a home run with one out to bring the Yankees back to within 3-2, but Soriano showed, typically, no plate discipline against Williamson. The three pitches he swung at and missed were not in the strike zone, and even a moderately disciplined hitter would have been standing on first with a walk after that plate appearance. But Soriano struck out, looked bad doing it, and the series was tied.

Now, of course I have to give credit to the Red Sox, too, who earned a victory even though the Yankees had chances to win. Tim Wakefield was, brilliant again, and will likely be the Series MVP if Boston wins. Todd Walker and Trot Nixon his crucial home runs off of Mussina, who was otherwise exceptional. He's now 0-3 in this postseason, but if not for his defense, and with better run support, he'd be 2-1, at worst, maybe 3-0. And Boston's bullpen has been exceptional in the postseason. It shouldn't be a tremendous surprise that they were able to turn it around, Williamson, Timlin and Embree are all extremely talented pitchers who have done well in the past, and the nature of relief pitching is such that minor slumps will have a huge impact on the overall value of a pitcher's performance. That they conveniently turned it around for October is strange, but the fact that they did it at all isn't really.

So, it's tied. It'll go back to New York tomorrow, and the Yankees have to win two games against Derek Lowe, John Burkett and Pedro Martinez (one of these names does not belong here, one of these names is not the same...). Boston has to win two against David Wells, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, so it's not like the Yankees are against the wall, but with the specter of Pedro looming in Game Seven, they are almost in a must-win situation these next two games.

This afternoon, it's all on Boomer. The Yankees can get to Lowe--his success at Fenway is overblown, as I showed yesterday--so if Wells can hold Boston to only a couple of runs, they can win this game, and take it back to New York, and try to get Andy Pettitte to finish it off (and if he does, he's likely the MVP). With Boston's weakest starter going in Game Six, and their best in Game Seven, this game today is crucial for both teams. I wish I believed in curses, because then I'd have no lack of confidence in the Yankees winning these next two, because Boston could not possibly beat them. But they can, and they might, and someday, they will. Hopefully, it won't be this one.

--posted at 10:20 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Monday, October 13, 2003

Game Four: James Van Der Beek Has A Massive Forehead
by Larry Mahnken

And then, it rained. Bah! I took off from work 45 minutes early to see this?

So, rather than getting to see another crucial, and likely tense game between the Yankees and Sox, we got Varsity Freaking Blues, as the rain in Boston cancelled Game Four. Boston needs to get rid of that characterless pit they call a ballpark and replace it with a dome. With artificial turf. And a white roof. (Who's stupid idea was that?)

Everything gets put off another day--except Games 6 and 7, if necessary (and let's hope not!). Instead of Wells vs. Burkett, we get the scheduled Game 5 matchup, Moose vs. Wakefield. Mussina didn't pitch particularly well in Game 1, and the long rest might have had something to do with it, so keeping him on normal rest is probably a good idea. If the Yankees pull out the series...well, do the counting. His next turn in the rotation would be conveniently timed... </looking ahead way too far>

So, who does the rainout benefit more? Well, the original rotation was:

Wells vs. Burkett
Mussina vs. Wakefield
Pettitte vs. Lowe
Clemens vs. Martinez

Now, it's:

Mussina vs. Wakefield
Pettitte vs. Lowe
Wells vs. Burkett
Clemens vs. Pedro

I'm assuming that

A) Pettitte will start Game Five, and
B) Pedro will start Game Seven

Because Tuesday is Pettitte's normal turn in the rotation, and an extra day of rest for Wells probably won't hurt--and might help. Since Games 6 and 7 are not being moved, a game 6 start would still mean short rest for Pedro. If it goes to Game 6, the Red Sox are facing one of two scenarios:

1) They're facing elimination
2) They have a chance to eliminate the Yankees

In the first scenario, you might think that you'd want Pedro on the mound--after all, you always want your best pitcher in the must-win game. But then, even if they do win, they're facing another elimination game the next night, facing Roger Clemens with...John Burkett? Tim Wakefield on short rest (like THAT matters)? And you'd have a less than 100% Pedro in the game, too. The point is to win the series, not get to Game 7, and saving Pedro until Game 7 gives Boston the best chance to win the series.

In the second scenario, you might want to throw Pedro out there to finish the Yankees off quickly, but then, if you should lose, you're facing elimination with...once again, your third and fourth best starters as the option. And the Yankees would have come off of beating your best starter. AND, if you win Game Six, you don't get to use Pedro until Game Two of the World Series--and MAYBE even Game Three. It would be stupid to use him on short rest there.

So, I think the second assumption is a pretty safe one, and the first is probably the case, especially if you want to look too far ahead and do the counting of days off...

So, in this scenario, which I think is how it will shake out, all the rainout does is shuffle the days that the same matchups happen, which appears to have no impact on the chances of either team winning.

Does it?

Well, first there's the psychological factor. Boston has to win 3 of the next four games, which is eminently doable. But had Boston lost to Wells last night, they'd have to win three straight against Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, which is probably a near impossible task. Pettitte, Wells and Rocket is more doable, though still tough. On the other hand, if the Red Sox win tonight, they have to win two of three against Andy, Boomer and Clemens, rather than the tougher combo. A Game 4 victory behind Boomer would have been more important to the Yankees and a loss less devastating than a loss by Mussina. Does this have a big impact? Ehh. Maybe a little, but probably not. I guess that is a bit advantageous to the Sox.

The other factor is that Derek Lowe is starting at home instead of on the road. And we all know that Derek Lowe is great at home and crappy on the road. Look at the numbers! He has a 3.21 ERA at home this season, and a 6.11 ERA away from Fenway. For his career, the split is less insane, but still clear: 3.12 at home, 4.04 on the road. So, huge advantage swing for Boston, right? It's what everyone is saying, so it must be true!

Not so fast...

When writing up his preview of this series, fellow blogger Aaron Gleeman took a quick look at this issue, and concluded that Derek Lowe's road problems are almost entirely due to playing games on artificial turf.

It makes sense, Lowe is a crazy-insane ground ball pitcher, giving up 3.92 ground balls for every fly ball. He led the majors in G/F ratio this year...and last year--and neither time was it even close. What Derek Lowe does is makes you put the ball on the ground, and it's up to his defense to turn it into an out.

Much of Lowe's "decline" this year can be attributed to this style of pitching, as Todd Walker isn't nearly as good a defensive player as Rey Sanchez was (he's a much better hitter, of course, but we're talking about Lowe right now). A bad second baseman means more ground ball singles, means more baserunners, means more runs. Really, while his numbers merited Cy Young consideration last season, he was really never at that level as a pitcher. Good, and at times VERY good, but not elite.

So, what are the splits? Well, for this season, Lowe's splits were:

Grass: 3.86 ERA in 182.0 IP
Turf: 9.70 ERA in 21.1 IP

BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! Sample Size Alarm! Indeed, that is a very small sample size, but when you look at his career splits:

Grass: 3.14 ERA in 754.1 IP
Turf: 5.71 ERA in 153.0 IP

153.0 IP is a damn good sample size, and it's not just because of his insane split this season either: his turf ERA was 5.06 going into this season.

When you're a guy who doesn't strike people out and relies on the ball being put on the ground, turf is gonna kill you. His Average Against on Balls in Park is .279 on grass and .329 on turf. That's a HUGE swing.

So, what happens when you take the turf out? Well his splits then:

2003
Fenway: 3.21 ERA in 115.0 IP
Road/Grass: 4.97 ERA in 67.0 IP

Career
Fenway: 3.12 ERA in 461.1 IP
Road/Grass: 3.16 ERA in 293.0 IP

Obviously, there's a big split this season--probably one or two bad performances on the road, and great performances at home that had nothing to do with the park. The career split is almost the same, and in a far larger sample size, indicating that Lowe's problem really is the turf, and not the park itself. Of course, there is a slight improvement in his numbers at Fenway, and a .005 improvement in BABIP at him, so maybe the grass is a bit higher at home.

So wait, how does this effect the Yankees, other than showing that Lowe's Home/Road splits are overblown?

Well, here's his splits against the Yankees this season and in his career:

2003:
Fenway: 6.00 ERA in 12.0 IP
Yankee Stadium: 5.11 ERA in 12.2 IP

Career:
Fenway: 5.53 ERA in 40.2 IP
Yankee Stadium: 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP

BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! Damn, gotta turn that thing off sometime. Well, sample size caveats apply, of course, but you can see that Lowe has pitched better against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium than he has in Fenway Park. The split goes that way this season, last season, and in 2000. Only in 2001 does it go the other way, and had it not been for the HRs by David Justice and Paul O'Neill at The Stadium that season (remember how pissed off at himself O'Neill was when he hit that homer!), the splits would go the same way.

Really, that's not the point. The number of IP is too small to say that Lowe is worse or better against the Yankees at Fenway, but it's not too small to say this: Derek Lowe, in the past, has sucked against the Yankees, no matter where they play. Sure, he was 2-0 against them this season, but one win was because David Wells got bombed, and the other was because Jose Contreras got bombed.

Okay, to be fair, Lowe has pitched some great games against the Yankees, especially last season, when he was great against everybody. He can beat the Yankees, but they've had great success against him before, they've had great success against him recently, and it doesn't make a damn bit of difference either way where he's pitching. They can beat him.

So who does this rainout benefit? Maybe the Red Sox a tiny little bit, but probably not enough to effect the outcome of the series.

* * *

For those that didn't see it, Don Zimmer made a statement before the...broadcast of Varsity Blues:

I'm embarrassed about what happened yesterday. I'm embarrassed for the Yankees, the Red Sox, the fans, the umpires, and my family. That's all I have to say. I'm sorry.

He then left the press room in tears (he was choking up during the entire statement). Was he prompted to make a statement by Steinbrenner? Who knows? But it was undoubtedly sincere.

--posted at 12:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Sunday, October 12, 2003

Game Three: New York 4, Boston 3 - Testosterone 6, Sportsmanship 0
by Larry Mahnken

Game 3 of the 1999 ALCS was advertised as the "Brawl in Beantown", matching two of the greatest pitchers in baseball, Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens. The game didn't even come close to living up to the hype, as Clemens was gone in the third inning with a 5-0 deficit, and Pedro was untouchable, beating the Bombers 13-1.

It was the only game that Roger Clemens ever lost at Fenway Park as a visiting player.

The Yankees lost that game, but it was the last game they lost that season, beating the Sox in the next two, and sweeping the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. For all the hype leading up to the game, however, it wasn't really that important for the Yankees to win; it was more important for the Red Sox not to lose.

This year, Game 3 was important for both teams, the series being tied 1-1, though again it was probably more important for the Red Sox than the Yankees. With the next two pitching matchups clearly favoring the Yankees, and the third probably favoring them as well, Boston now faces the difficult task of winning two of those three games just to get it to a Game Seven, with Pedro facing Rocket again at Yankee Stadium. A loss would have been nearly as damaging to the Yankees' chances, too, as they would have had to win all three of those games to avoid facing Pedro in Game Seven.

And with so much on the line, the game lived up to the hype. Clemens gave up base hits to three of the first four batters he faced, and it appeared that we might be witnessing a repeat of 1999. But Clemens not only settled down, he shut the Red Sox down from that point on, giving up only 2 hits after the first, striking out 7 men in total, and sending a clear message: if it does come down to Game 7, the Yankees are going to have a chance to win.

I've said again and again that the Yankees don't beat Pedro, despite what is now a 9-9 record against him and a 15-11 record against his team when he starts. When they've beat him, it's usually been because of great pitching by the Yankees, or a poor showing by the Boston bullpen. The Yankees did get outstanding pitching today, but they beat Pedro. They hit him, they scored off of him, they beat him. And they got in his head, too.

Jorge Posada started the Yankees' scoring with a double off the wall in the second, and was driven home with a two-out single by Karim Garcia. At that point, you weren't sure if the Yankees were going to get Pedro any more, maybe it wouldn't be enough. But one swing by Derek Jeter in the top of the third changed that, as he crushed a ball over the Green Monster, tying the game. I don't buy into Clutch Hitting, but that was a Clutch Hit, as it negated Clemens's bad first inning, and while the Yankees' might still have lost the game, it was going to have to come after that point.

They didn't lose, and in fact won it in the fourth. Jorge Posada walked, Nick Johnson slammed a single off the Green Monster to move Posada to third, and Hideki Matsui drove a ball over Trot Nixon's head for an automatic double, scoring Posada. And then Karim Garcia came to the plate.

Why Pedro did what he did is something that we'll never know. Maybe he was trying to get the Yankees' hitters to back away from the plate, or maybe he was trying to get Roger Clemens upset, and throw off his rhythm--maybe he was trying to get him tossed. But what he did was undeniable. He threw at Karim Garcia. He didn't throw at his head--the location of the pitch was below the shoulders of Garcia--but the pitch was behind Garcia, and Pedro hadn't been wild at all. He intended to hit him, or at least knock him down.

It was, of course, stupid to throw at someone anyway, but in that situation, it was especially so. With second and third and nobody out, not only was Martinez putting another runner on base, but he was risking a wild pitch that would have scored another run--and left the Yankees with a runner on third and still nobody out. In fact, the pitch almost certainly didn't hit Garcia--it hit his bat--and had it missed that, would have been just such a disastrous wild pitch.

But the umpires awarded Garcia first base, and Alfonso Soriano bounced into a double play, scoring a run, but killing the rally. Garcia went (unnecessarily) hard into second base, taking out Todd Walker, and the jawing started again, as Garcia had to be kept from going out towards Martinez on the mound. And then it got ugly. The Yankees dugout started yelling at Martinez, who yelled back at them, and pointed twice at his head while jawing with Jorge Posada. What was Martinez saying? I have no idea. But if you're a pitcher with a reputation as a headhunter, and you point at your head while arguing with an opposing batter...well, that's pretty stupid.

It should have ended there. It didn't end there. With two strikes on Manny Ramirez, Roger Clemens threw a high fastball, and Ramirez, clearly expecting to get thrown at, started walking towards the mound yelling at Clemens (carrying the bat with him), and had to be restrained by Posada and the home plate umpire. Of course, the pitch was nowhere near Ramirez's head--even Grady Little had to admit that--and Ramirez was just being stupid. And it was stupid--you don't risk getting thrown out of a playoff game, not when you're the best hitter on your team.

The dugouts and bullpens cleared, there was some yelling and pushing, but the most shocking incident came when Don Zimmer charged Pedro Martinez and swung at him, and Martinez responded by grabbing his head and shoving him to the ground. Zimmer was way out of line charging Martinez, but Martinez's reaction was not the best one. He could easily have stepped out of the way of the 700 pound Zimmer, but instead chose to use physical force against him. Was he in his rights to defend himself? Absolutely. Was it necessary? Uh, no.

From that point on, Clemens and Martinez dominated, and the game went into the 7th with the Yankees leading 4-2. Torre lifted Clemens after 6 innings and 96 pitches, choosing to go with lefty Felix Heredia against lefty David Ortiz. Heredia walked the Cookie Monster, and Jose Contreras came in, gave up a single to Kevin Millar, moving Ortiz to third, and then a double play by Trot Nixon, making the score 4-3, then walking Bill Mueller before getting out of the inning.

Now, I've been critical of Torre all season for his use of Mariano Rivera, essentially leaning on him whenever there's an opportunity for a win. But in the postseason, if you've got a chance for a win, you have to go for it, and Torre made the right decision in bringing Rivera in for the eighth. He's still available for an inning tonight, and if he isn't used, then two on Monday. By bringing in Mo--who has been his old dominant self this postseason--he neutralized the Boston offense, and sealed the win.

Now the Yankees are in control of the series again. If Wells pitches tonight like he did in Minnesota, the Yankees will have a stranglehold on this series, and be in position to finish Boston off with their best starter on the mound Monday. This was a fantastically huge win for the Yankees, and I'm ecstatic about it.

* * *

The one other incident in the game that I didn't mention was the fight in the bullpen. I didn't talk about it because I don't know what really happened--and you don't, either. The details are that Nelson and Garcia fought a Boston groundskeeper in the bullpen, and that he had spike marks on him from getting kicked and/or stepped on. Apparently he was cheering for the Red Sox and holding a Red Sox towel and waving it, and was very pumped up after the Yankees hit into a double play. Nelson says the groundskeeper took a swing at him, I'm not so sure about that.

Nelson was wrong to hit the man if he didn't throw a punch, and I have no idea when Garcia really came onto the scene, so I won't say anything about his guilt or innocence (if he just saw a fight, then he was right to go in and help his teammate), but I do recall one thing my friend Jeff said: "every beating has a lesson". The groundskeeper had a right to be there, but to openly root for the Red Sox in that situation--that's just plain stupid.

Jeff Nelson is a punk and a redneck, and if he gets suspended, it's probably deserved, and it's no loss. At least it keeps him from walking someone in a tight spot.

--posted at 10:31 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Saturday, October 11, 2003

Outed
by Larry Mahnken

Everybody's favorite reader, Bob, returns with this picture and a question:

LARRY, is this sg, the sheriff, repoz, ncyanks, truss or steve g

I dunno, I guess I'd better ask them. Fess up.

By the way, where's the love for sjohnny, or APNY, ESPNErik, eric, who does not own a television, or any of my other readers? That's cold, Bob.

--posted at 10:55 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Superstition
by Larry Mahnken

You know me, extremely superstitious. I spend most of the postseason sitting in the same spot, usually in a fairly uncomforatble position, because the Yankees did well when I was sitting that way before. Yeah, it's almost certainly not doing anything, but on the other hand, what if it was doing something? Don't wanna take any chances here. This is the Yankees, damn it. Too important.

Anyway, I guess I'm a chip off the old block, judging from this email my father sent me yesterday:

So, here's the story of a talisman and a curse.

A couple of weeks ago your mother was browsing through eBay and came across this really nice Yankees golf shirt. She brought it to my attention. I bid on it. I won.

It arrived a few days later and I tried it on. It was a size Large and I was just a bit too large for a large. (Six months and sixty pounds ago, before I started Weight Watchers, I was an XXLarge.) But it wasn't too tight so I knew it would fit soon.

Just before Game Two of the Division Series I tried the shirt on and, lo and behold, it fit! (See photo) I wore the shirt and the Yankees won.

In Game Three I was busy up to game time and it was in the third inning that I realized I was wearing the wrong shirt. I changed in time for the 4th and you know what happened.

Game Four; wore the shirt, series over.

On to the ALCS.

I was watching Game One and suddenly realized that I had made and incredible fashion faux pas. Not only was I not wearing "the shirt" but the combination I was wearing (see other photo) actually matched the Red Sox road colors!!!! I quickly change and the Yanks went on to score a couple of runs, but the damage had already been done. Sorry, Moose.

For Game Two I wore the shirt from the start and in the first inning and a half I almost thought I had worn out the magic. I hadn't.

By the way, I've been afraid to wash it until this is over. Should smell pretty ripe by the end of the series.

Now for the curse.

Assuming this may end up on the web, I'll try to be a little circumspect about this first part. Back in November of 2000, I acquired a fine cigar from a Spanish speaking country famous for fine cigars. As one who occasionally appreciates a fine cigar, and realizing I'll probably never get another one of these, I decided to save it for a special occasion.

In the spring of 2001 I thought I had the perfect occasion. My old college hockey team was undefeated and playing for the Division III National Championship. I figured I'd smoke it in celebration when they won.

They suffered their only defeat of the season in the National Championship Game, 7-2, on home ice.

In October/November I was going to smoke it to celebrate the Yankees' great comeback championship in the playoffs and World Series.

Mariano blew his first World Series game ever in Game Seven.

Other celebrations that didn't happen:

The Yankees' 2002 Series win.

Being at the PGA Championship in Rochester this summer to see Tiger win the Grand Slam.

Being at the PGA Championship in Rochester this summer to see Tiger win a major.

My team in this summer's golf league winning the league championship. (We led wire to wire through the season and lost in the championship match to the fourth place team. I had rallied in my match to win four of the last five holes and win the match 5 1/2 to 4 1/2, only to learn that my three teammates had gotten skunked.)

So, no more waiting for special occasions or celebrations. Tonight, this curse ends. As I watch the Cubbies and Fish slug it out I'm going to sit on the balcony and smoke my Cu� uh, fine cigar for no apparent reason and be done with it.

We'll know soon enough if it worked.

So there you go. If the Yankees beat Pedro today, I'm crediting the t-shirt and the cigar. And Enrique Wilson.

Thanks Dad, for giving your tired son a way out of writing something meaningful today, while still giving him blog material!

(Hey, it's the weekend! My traffic is cut in half on these days, anyway!)

--posted at 9:21 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Friday, October 10, 2003

Must-Won: New York 6, Boston 2
by Larry Mahnken

Usually, Game Two is an important game, but it's not exactly a must-win. A good team is capable of coming back from 2-0 down in a 7 game series, even when they lose the first two at home. But last night was a must-win for the Yankees. Had they lost, they would have faced the unenviable task of having to defeat the greatest pitcher in the world, or face a 3-0 deficit. They needed to win, and they did. They're still not in control of the series, but they're still alive.

I said last night--well, implied last night--that the Yankees needed Good Andy if they wanted any chance of winning. Andy Pettitte, for those of you who haven't noticed, isn't a "Big Game Pitcher", like he's often called. He isn't a choker, either. He's good, but sometimes he's great, and sometimes he's terrible. Last night was the most crucial game he's ever pitched for the Yankees, more crucial than Game 5 of the '96 Series. He started out as Pedestrian Andy--without getting much help from his defense--and it looked in the first two innings like the Red Sox might turn the game into a laugher, much like they did when they last faced Pettitte in early September. But they only put one run on the board in those two innings, and then Good Andy entered the building.

Of course, that run would have been enough had Derek Lowe shut the Yankees down like Tim Wakefield had on Wednesday, but the Yankees were able to take their first lead of the series in the bottom of the third inning, when Nick *SIGH* Johnson was left a fat pitch over the heart of the plate, and launched it to deep right for a two-run home run.

A rally in the third loaded the bases for the Yankees with one out, but only resulted in one run. The Yankees, in fact, wasted nearly as many scoring opportunities as the Red Sox--leaving 4 men on in scoring postion with 2 outs, to Boston's 5. But the Yankees created more opportunities than the Red Sox did, as Andy Pettitte was nearly untouchable after the second, giving up only one more run on a Jason Varitek homer in the 6th.

Jose Contreras entered in the 7th, and retired all four batters he faced, and Rivera came in to finish the job in the ninth. It was a solid win for the Yankees, though not as much as Boston's was the night before. The Red Sox wasted opportunities to put the Yankees away in the first two innings, and the decision to bring in the struggling Scott Sauerbeck into the game in the 7th inning, after Giambi had walked, and turning Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada around to their strong sides, can only be explained by saying that Lowe was finished, and Sauerbeck was the only pitcher who had warmed up.

But why only Sauerbeck? Sauerbeck is a LOOGY, and his lefty/righty splits are painfully obvious in the regard. If Sauerbeck was used this way during the regular season, it's apparent why his numbers were so awful. That's just bad managing. But I ain't complaining. If Little wants to bring in the wrong guy to pitch to good hitters this series, more power to him.

Tomorrow the Yankees face Pedro in a huge swing game. Really, this game is all about Clemens--he won't be getting any standing ovations this time, unless he gets pounded out of the game. Rocket has only had two great starts against Boston in the past two seasons, and he's been pounded by them three times this year alone. The Yankees need him to throw six innings without giving up more than two or three runs, while they work Pedro's count and try to get the bullpen into the game. It can be done, but it's almost all on Clemens, pitching in what is absolutely his last game in Fenway Park, probably the last game he pitches against an American League team, and maybe the last game of his career. But, you know... no pressure, Rog.

* * *

Hero of the game: Derek Lowe, for hitting Aaron Boone with a pitch. Made my night.

--posted at 10:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Thursday, October 09, 2003

Boston 5, New York 2
by Larry Mahnken

There's no way around it, there's no way to deny it, there's no way to spin it positively, and if there was, trust me, I would. This loss was huge. There is no matchup in this series that favored the Yankees more than Mussina vs. Wakefield, but last night, it was Wakefield that looked like the ace and Mussina who looked shaky. Was it the long rest for Mussina? Was it the discipline that helped the Sox deny Clemens his 300th win? It was probably a combination of the two.

The Yankees really needed Mussina to be perfect last night, because Wakefield's knuckleball was keeping them off-balance the whole game. He wasn't perfect, he struggled to find control, and in the middle innings, he struggled to keep the ball in the yard.

Game One isn't as important as advertised, but in this case, it's huge. Forget Pedro's .500 record against the Yankees, if the Red Sox win both of Pedro's starts, the Yankees have to win every other game--Lowe twice, Suppan or Burkett once, and Wakefield in his second attempt against Mussina. Can it be done? Sure. Win a game against Pedro, and you're back in control. But last night, the advantage fell right into Boston's lap.

Frankly, there's nothing I can fault the Yankees for in this game. Mussina didn't pitch well, but he didn't exactly pitch horribly, either. The Yankees didn't get hits off of Wakefield, but his knuckleball was moving all over the plate. It was a lost opportunity for the Yankees, but it was really something that the Red Sox took. And that's something that's important to understand. The Red Sox TOOK this game. Hey, news flash, "1918" crowd--they can actually do that. The Yankees haven't won by divine intervention, they've won by earning it. Boston is 25% of the way towards earning the pennant.

I'm terribly depressed over this outcome. The 7th inning rally gave us all a little hope, but ultimately it wasn't enough. Suddenly, Game Two becomes huge.

Help us, Good Andy. You're our only hope.

--posted at 12:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Wednesday, October 08, 2003

ALCS Roster Moves
by Larry Mahnken

The Yankees made a couple of roster moves for the ALCS, dropping Chris Hammond and adding Erick Almont-E.

By totally random chance, I happened upon the YES network while Mike Francesa and Chris Russo were doing a phone interview with Joe Torre (seriously, I never watch that show). Torre said that he was leaving Hammond off the roster and leaving Weaver on because Weaver was a "long man", and he wanted to keep Contreras for the "Ramiro Mendoza" role. I guess I can understand that, you do want to have someone around to take one for the team if the Sox explode offensively, but I'm perplexed that Torre has completely abandoned Hammond in the past month, only using him in blowouts. I would have dropped David Dellucci instead of Hammond, but Torre really prefers having the long bench and short pen, and Hammond--an offspeed pitcher--might not be effective after being shelved for most of the last month.

Another interesting thing Torre said was that there was a "better than good chance" that Enrique Wilson would start Saturday against Pedro Martinez. Pinch-hitting Sierra for Johnson, starting Enrique Wilson in the playoffs...someone should really tell Joe about the concept of "sample size".

If you want to find a practical reason for Enrique Wilson's success against Pedro, there is a story that he's on friendly terms with Boston's ace, and doesn't fear getting hit, so he bats calmly and confidently. Hey, maybe that's it, but I'm leaning more towards "fluke".

--posted at 5:21 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

In 1904, on the last day of the season, the New York Highlanders hosted a doubleheader against the Boston Americans, needing 2 wins to win their first pennant. In the ninth inning of the first game, with the score tied 2-2, 41 game winner Jack Chesbro unleashed a spitball that got past the catcher, and brought home the winning run--the third straight win by Boston against the Highlanders. New York won the second game, but in the first go around of the greatest rivalry in sports history, it was the New York team, not the Boston team, that collapsed.

John McGraw refused to face the AL Champions that year, so the Highlanders would have to wait 19 more years--and move across the Harlem and change their name--before they would have had a chance at their World's Championship anyway. The rivalry with the Americans--later the Red Sox--didn't flare up at that early stage, either, as neither team was good at the same time until the late 30's. The Red Sox dominated the American League in the 1910's, while the Yankees spent a lot of time in the cellar. In the 20's, Boston started shipping players to New York--most notably Babe Ruth--and the tables turned.

Since 1918, the Red Sox haven't won a single World Series. They didn't win another pennant until 1946, and have only won four pennants since the sale of Ruth--losing all four series in seven games. Some say they're cursed, I think that's bullshit. The problem with the Red Sox is poor management, and worse luck. They lost to truly great team in 1967, 1975 and 1986, and in 1946, the greatest hitter that ever lived hit .200 in his only World Series. The biggest obstacle has been, of course, the Yankees. When Boston finally became good again in the late 30's, there were the Yankees, dominating the league. Boston won a pennant and made a playoff game in the late 40's, but the Yankees reestablished control in 1949, and by the time they fell off, a generation of good Red Sox teams had lost their shot. The Sox were poised to take over again in the late 70's, but Messersmith/McNally allowed the Yankees to put together a better team than the Red Sox, and free agency ultimately tore the team apart. Boston had some good teams in the 80's and early 90's, but the Blue Jays and A's kept them from reaching the promised land. Finally, in the late 90's, Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez became the centerpiece of some very good Boston teams, but the Yankees had some great teams, and the Sox were shut out again.

Now, the Red Sox have perhaps their best team since 1918. The pitching isn't great, but it isn't awful, either, and they have the best pitcher in the world. The bullpen has struggled terribly, but what makes the Red Sox a truly scary team is their offense, one of the greatest ever assembled. With the Braves and Giants out of the National League Playoffs, the Red Sox, if they get to the World Series, would have to be heavy favorites. Sure, Chicago and Florida are quality teams, with very good pitching, but Boston is far better than either of them. If they can just win the pennant, the light at the end of the tunnel will be visible.

But standing in their way of that dream is, of course, the Yankees. You knew it would come down to this, it almost had to. There may or not be a curse, but there are demons to be exorcised by the Red Sox, and I'm sure a Red Sox fan will tell you, while they didn't want to face the Yankees, but it wouldn't be quite perfect if they didn't beat the Yankees along the way. If the Red Sox win this series and the next, it would be appropriate, and if the Yankees stop Boston's dream, it's equally so. This isn't 1999, where a pretty good Boston team tried to knock off a great Yankees team, these are two great teams going to war. The rest of the country might not like it, but it had to come down to this.

How do the Yankees and Sox match up? Well, I compared them in the middle of the season, and there haven't been dramatic changes since then. The Boston lineup, the best in baseball, is obviously better than New York's, but the Yankees have a very good lineup, too. One thing was made clear in the regular season: the Yankees can't run with the Red Sox, so if Boston is putting a lot of runs on the board, they'll likely win.

Things have really broken the Yankees' way going into this series, most notably with Johnny Damon's injury. The loss of Damon for the first part of the series (maybe the entire series) won't significantly hurt Boston's offense, but it will hurt their defense, as Damon is one of the finest centerfielders in the game, albeit a limp-armed one. The biggest break for the Yankees in terms of impact on the outcome of the series is most likely the fact that the Red Sox went five games in the ALDS, while the Yankees had time to set their rotation. Pedro Martinez won't pitch until Game 3 in Fenway, and unless he goes on short rest in Game 6, or the series goes 7, the Yankees only have to see him once. Yes, the Yankees have had success against the Red Sox when Pedro starts in the past, but you don't want to count on that, and you don't want to face him two times, let alone three.

What's going to decide this series is New York's pitching against Boston's offense. Boston slumped in the ALDS, and they're probably due to break out of it. Mike Mussina is not a likely candidate to get lit up, and while he was torched in early September at The Stadium, Andy Pettitte should probably have a decent performance as well. Red Sox fans are hoping, and Yankees fans are worrying, that Roger Clemens and David Wells will be, once again, the victims of a Boston offensive explosion. If the Yankees win Games 1 and 2, Boston wins 3 and 4, Mussina wins 5, Pedro wins 6...then it's down to the Red Sox vs. Clemens in a Game 7, and while Clemens will probably pitch well in one of the two games he starts, there's still a concern there.

Of course, Boston might also get great pitching, and the Yankees' offense didn't do anything impressive until Game 4 against Minnesota. But with Byung-Hyun Kim possibly out with a tight shoulder and an extended finger, the Red Sox bullpen is really in the hands of Scott Williamson, Mike Timlin and Alan Embree, who aren't bad pitchers, but there's not a "relief ace" in the bunch.

Really, the Yankees, believe it or not, have the best bullpen left in the playoffs. Torre is likely to keep it on a short leash, and go to Rivera whenever he can, but Gabe White, Felix Heredia and Chris Hammond all look capable of giving solid middle relief innings, and Jose Contreras might be able to be a righty stopper. Unfortunately, Torre stopped using Hammond in September, and he didn't give Contreras much of a look out of the bullpen late in the season or in the LDS, so he's an unknown. This series could come down to a late inning matchup between Contreras/Nelson and Garciaparra/Ramirez, and I really don't know how that will turn out--and I'm more than a bit nervous.

What Boston needs is a strong start tonight or tomorrow out of Tim Wakefield or Derek Lowe, they can't leave games in the hands of their bullpen. Oakland wasn't able to take advantage of the Boston pitching, but the Yankees are a far better hitting team than Oakland. If Boston wins one of two in New York, they're in good shape; if they lose both, they're on the ropes, and if they win both, it will probably be the last game at Yankee Stadium this season.

My feeling is that Mussina will give two strong starts, Clemens will keep the Yankees in Game Three, and Pettitte will pitch well at least once, while Wells will be on a short leash. There will be at least one blowout, several close games, and probably one game blown by the Boston bullpen. The Boston lineup isn't quite suited to exploit the Yankees' defense, and the Yankees are as likely to exploit Boston's defense as the Sox are to exploit theirs, so it's a push there. If Boston had won the LDS in four, they would probably be the team I pick here, but things are (as they so often seem to) coming up in the Yankees' favor this postseason, I'm going to go with the Yankees in Six.

A week and a half from today: The World Series--Boston vs. Florida.

--posted at 2:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Tuesday, October 07, 2003

Insider's TV Info
by Larry Mahnken

ESPNErik has started a new weblog to answer your questions about sports television. So far it looks awesome, and I encourage everyone to send him their questions.

--posted at 3:36 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

Apparently, Terrence Long can't do anything, except sit there and take a pitch right over the middle of the plate to end the A's season.

Last night we got treated to a wonderful baseball game (and a damn fine football game, too. For the 90% of you who turned it off--HA HA!). The Red Sox survived, and any Sox fan will tell you that they're thrilled about that, but for the fans who have waited 85 years in Boston, and 95 years in Chicago, this was only the first step towards the only goal that matters to them. They don't hang pennants for winning the division series, only the LCS and World Series. Chicago got to taste postseason champagne for the first time in 95 years, but if they don't advance, nobody will remember it a few years from now.

As for the Red Sox, this ALCS is a dream come true for promotions, but anyone who says that the Yankees fans are thrilled to be facing Boston, or vice-versa, has no idea what they're talking about. Only the most myopic illiterate Yankees fan is happy to face the surging and extremely dangerous Red Sox instead of the short-handed A's, and the Red Sox know that this is going to be a difficult series to win, especially how the pitching matchups line up.

But it is appropriate, that if this is the year for Boston, that they have to go through the Yankees first, the team that is more responsible than any other for Boston's 85 years of futility. Most of the Red Sox's best teams have been shut out of the postseason by superior Yankees teams, particularly in the Ted Williams era, late 70's, and late 90's. This Boston team is perhaps the best all-around since their last title, and once again, there are the Yankees standing in their way. I'd rather face the A's, but no matter who wins this series, the result will be appropriate.

With the Cubbies going for their first pennant in 58 years in one league, and the Yankees and Sox facing off in the other, you'd think this would be a ratings bonanza for FOX. Instead, on Wednesday, they're playing both games at the SAME TIME, and shifting the alternate game in every region to...wait for it...FX. Which is seen in, I believe, 42 homes nationwide. When someone tries to tell you that playoff ratings are down this year, and uses that as proof that baseball is in decline, use that as proof that they are an idiot. You can't watch what's not on TV.

Up here in Western New York, I'm certain we'll get to see Yankees/Sox, as there is a large fan base for both in Rochester. But I'll be switching back and forth between the two games, using the picture-in-picture feature.

* * *

So last season, under the old CBA, the League Championship Series featured two small-market teams, a mid-market team, and a large-market team. Under the new CBA, there are three large-market teams and a mid-market team. I guess that CBA was a bad thing. After all, MLB ignored regular season results when saying that baseball was having a serious competitive balance problem, and used only postseason results.

If you believe, as I do, that the regular season is a far greater indication of the quality of a ballclub than the postseason, then you have to admit that the National League Championship Series matches the weakest of the NL Playoff teams, the Cubs and Marlins. But in the postseason, where a single game has so much more impact on the outcome of a series, upsets are common. In baseball, where the pitcher has such a large impact on the outcome of a game, a great performance or a horrible performance can swing a series. The Cubs upset the Braves thanks to great pitching, the Marlins upset the Giants thanks to poor Giant pitching.

How do the teams match up? Rather than matching them up position by position--which isn't how they play--I'm evaluating their lineups, and then their pitching matchups:

Leadoff Batter:
CHC: Kenny Lofton (.296 AVG/.352 OBP/.450 SLG/.801 OPS/12 HR/30 SB-9 CS/.280 EqA)
FLA: Juan Pierre (.305 AVG/.361 OBP/.373 SLG/.734 OPS/1 HR/65 SB-20 CS/.272 EqA)

Neither of these teams has On-Base Gods in the leadoff spot, but neither team really posesses such a talent. The Marlins were put together with speed in mind, while the Cubs were put together with...I don't know, not getting on base much in mind. Dusty Baker is a strange manager--on one hand, he can get players to play over their heads, and on the other hand, he makes a lot of roster decisions and tactical decisions that seem foolhardy. Anyway, you end up having to rely heavily on stealing at a high-sucess rate, hitting home runs, and great pitching to win. For the Cubs and Marlins, so far, so good.

Though neither of the teams' leadoff batters get on base a lot, they do get on base enough, and both steal bases with around a 75% success rate--making those steals a positive asset. Lofton has a lot more power than Pierre, but batting leadoff in the National League, it's largely wasted. Lofton has also been getting on base at over a .380 rate since coming over from Pittsburgh, so maybe the Dusty Factor has made him a top leadoff man again.

EqA factors in steals, and parks, but it doesn't factor in context. Lofton rates superior to Pierre because of his power, but in the leadoff spot, it's not as big an advantage as it would be lower in the lineup. On balance, I'd rate this spot as even.

Second Batter:
CHC: Mark Grudzielanek (.314/.366/.416/.782/3/6-2/.276)
FLA: Luis Castillo (.314/.381/.397/.778/6/21-19/.275)

See, this is what I'm talking about with Dusty Baker. Entering the season, the Cubs had a good prospect in Bobby Hill, who could have given them a good leadoff hitter and glove man at second for years to come, but instead, Baker went with the proven veteran, Mark Grudzielanek. It didn't matter than Grudzielanek was proven as not being very good, Baker played him. And Baker worked his magic, getting as good as season out of Grudzielanek as he's really ever had, 1999. Of course, Hill might have put up similar numbers if he got a chance, but he didn't, and now he's off to Pittsburgh, where he'll finally get an opportunity to play, and maybe be a part of the next good Pirates team.

Luis Castillo, on the other hand, is a very good #2 hitter. He gets on base and he doesn't hit into double plays; he doesn't walk a lot, but he walks enough. He hasn't stolen bases at a very good rate this season, but he has done so in the past, so it's probably worth taking the risk in spots. Like Pierre, he doesn't strike out very much, either, and against the K'ing Kubs, that might be an asset--put the ball in play, and get things done with your speed.

Grudzielanek had a solid season, but he played over his head, and he still wasn't as good as Castillo. I'd rate this as a solid advantage Marlins.

Third Batter:
CHC: Sammy Sosa (.279/.358/.553/.911/40/0-1/.303)
FLA: Ivan Rodriguez (.297/.369/.474/.843/16/10-6/.293)

Sammy Sosa is a great player entering (said in low tones in case Roger Clemens is listening) the twilight of his career. That doesn't mean he's going to suck, but he'll never again have a season like the ones he had from 1998-2001. Maybe for a short series, he can blow up and carry the Cubbies' offense, a la Barry Bonds, and that would be an enormous help to the Cubs' World Series chances, but so far, he's been a zero in the playoffs.

Pudge Rodriguez was a curious sign for the Marlins, considering that the Marlins didn't seem ready to contend, and Rodriguez didn't have a reputation as being a good handler of pitchers, young pitching being the Marlins' greatest asset. But it worked out for both sides, as Rodriguez had a strong season, and was probably the MVP of the first round. Should he be the Marlins' #3 hitter? Probably not, but while he's not in the elite class that he was in during the late 90's, he's still a very good hitter. The Marlins can't offer Rodriguez arbitration this offseason, but it appears that he wants to come back, and the Marlins probably want him back. They should be able to work something out.

Still, Rodriguez isn't Sosa, and assuming that Sammy will break out of it eventually, this has got to be advantage Cubs.

Cleanup Batter:
CHC: Moises Alou (.280/.357/.462/.819/22/3-1/.283)
FLA: Derrek Lee (.271/.379/.508/.888/31/21-8/.307)

Moises Alou came to the Cubs before last season, and was heralded as a savior for the Cub offense. Instead, he sucked.

A little higher batting average this season, a few more walks, a few more homers, and Alou became useful again. He's not a great hitter, and he's not going to be useful much longer, but take a look at this lineup and ask yourself, is there anyone better to hit cleanup? Yeah, ugh.

On the other side, you've got one of the most underrated hitters in the National League. I read one preview this morning that gave the Cubs the advantage at first because Lee struggles agaisnt righties. Sure he does, but against righties, he's still better than Eric Karros and Randall Simon combined, and he's better than Moises Alou, too. Is he elite? No. Is he very good? Yes. And this is a big advantage for the Marlins

Fifth Batter:
CHC: Aramis Ramirez (.272/.324/.465/.788/27/2-2/.269)
FLA: Juan Encarnacion (.270/.313/.446/.759/19/19-8/.264)

In Dusty we trusty to play who's most sucky. Baker started the season with Mark Bellhorn available to fill either of the Cubs' two major holes: third base or second base. He had been coming off of a .374/.512/.886 season, but apparently, all Baker could see was the .254 Batting Average. Dusty doesn't like guys who walk, he thinks that it's something that the pitcher gives you, not something that you earn.

Bellhorn started the season in a slump, batting only .209, but he was still getting on base at a passable rate. If Baker had simply let Bellhorn be himself--look for pitches to drive, rather than look to put the ball in play--he might have worked out of it, and become a huge asset to the Cubs. Instead, the Cubs looked for something else, sent Bellhorn off to Colorado for Jose Hernandez, and ultimately sent Hernandez to Pittburgh to accquire Aramis Ramirez. Was Ramirez's production adequate? Absolutely, and like seemingly every other veteran mediocrity, he performed better under Baker. But if Dusty had been willing to let a good player do what made him good, instead of preaching an offensive theory that was totally unsupported by the evidence (the man managed BARRY BONDS, for Christ's sake!), they might have had something better.

This lineup is constructed under the assumption that Mike Lowell will continue to bat lower in the order in this series, otherwise Lee would bat here, and Lowell would bat fourth, with Encarnacion batting Sixth. Encarnacion is an average right fielder. He doesn't get on base, but he's got some pop, and a bit of speed. Yawn. Slight advantage Cubs.

Sixth Batter:
CHC: Eric Karros (.286/.340/.446/.786/12/1-1/.271)
FLA: Mike Lowell (.276/.350/.530/.881/32/3-1/.299)

In Dusty we trusty to play who's most sucky, Part Two. The Cubs have a prospect at first base, Hee Seop Choi, who has the potential to become an offensive force. Nick Johnson with more power. He started the year with the job, and was incredible, the Rookie of the Year award seemed a certainty. He slumped a bit in May, but the turning point game on a June Saturday in Wrigley, with the Yankees in town. Choi was knocked out cold chasing a popup, and later in the game Karros hit a game-winning three run HR. Karros kept up his hot hitting while Choi was out, and when the youngster came back, his playing time was cut back in favor of the veteran, and his slump continued. In August, the Cubs brought in another veteran mediocrity, Randall Simon, who essenitally eliminated all of Choi's playing time, and now he's off the postseason roster. Yes, Choi only batted .218, but he was just as good as Karros, and better than Simon. Hopefully, the Cubs will let the sausage assassin and Karros leave as free agents, but it's more likely that Baker will keep Karros on to platoon, and Choi's development will always be threatened by the possibilty of getting benched for the hot hand.

As for Karros, he's an average hitter playing at an offensive position, and thus a liability. Mike Lowell had a career year, and he's injured--but he's still better than Karros or Simon. Big advantage Marlins.

Seventh Batter:
CHC: Alex Gonzalez (.228/.295/.409/.704/20/3-3/.243)
FLA: Jeff Conine (.282/.338/.459/.797/20/5-0/.283)

This would be the bad Alex Gonzalez, which is really a pretty bad insult. He can field a bit, and has some pop, but he doesn't walk, and he doesn't hit for average. He's a liability offensively, and the fact that he's batting seventh tells you all you need to know about the Cubs' lineup.

Conine is a pretty good bottom of the lineup hitter, he doesn't get on base a lot, but he has some pop, and hits for a pretty good average. As a left fielder/first baseman, his overall value is limited, but the Marlins have a fairly deep lineup, and while a big bat in left would have an enormous impact on their offense, Conine will do just fine. He also does a great impression of an angry dog.

Big advantage Marlins.

Eighth Batter:
CHC: Damien Miller (.233/.310/.369/.680/9/1-0/.240) / Paul Bako (.229/.311/.330/.641/0/0-1/.228)
FLA: Alex Gonzalez (.256/.313/.443/.756/18/0-4/.260)

And now we reach the bottom. The Cubs have played Bako and Miller all season, and have gotten the same cruddy production all season. Batting behind Gonzalez and in front of the pitcher, these two basically make it a six-inning game for the Cubs. Any offensive production out of this spot is a huge bonus for them.

On the other side, you've got the good Alex Gonzalez, in the sense that if there's two Alex Gonzalez's, one's gotta be good, and one has to be bad. Well, maybe he's the good one. He really sucked before this season, so maybe he was the bad one, and now he's the good one. Either way, if your shortstop is named Alex Gonzalez, you can do better.

Still, Gonzalez put up average offensive production at a position where offensive production is below average. He's the #8 hitter, he's the worst in the lineup, and he's league average. That tells you a lot about the Marlins' lineup--they don't have a big hitter, but they don't have any major holes, and for the most part, that's what you want. Advantage Marlins.

So the lineup goes to the Marlins, and pretty lopsidedly, too. But we all know that hitting isn't how the Cubs got here, it's pitching. The Marlins have some good young starters--and if it wasn't for Jeff Torborg, they might still have A.J. Burnett, and be in great shape right now. But the Cubs have the Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling system in place, only a lot younger. The game-by-game matchups:

Games One and Five:
CHC: Carlos Zambrano (13-11, 3.11 ERA, 214.0 IP, 168 SO, 94 BB, 9 HR, 1.32 WHIP, 3.82 DIPS)
FLA: Josh Beckett (9-8, 3.04 ERA, 142.0 IP, 152 SO, 56 BB, 9 HR, 1.32 WHIP, 3.44 DIPS)

Two very young and very good starters meet up in Game One; Beckett strikes out more guys and walks fewer, and gives up homers at a slightly higher rate. Blister problems saved Beckett from having his arm pitched off by Torborg last season, and the elbow sprain he suffered in early May that kept him out nearly two months wasn't that bad, and it kept him fresh in the second half, where he was brilliant.

Zambrano was worked hard by Baker all season long, but he was brilliant for most of the second half. Unfortunately, he struggled in his last two regular season starts, and was not at his best in Game 2 of the NLDS. Still, he's capable of shutting down a good hitting team when he's on. The Marlins also struggle against righties, so Zambrano could have a great series.

I think Beckett's the hot pitcher right now, and that gives the Marlins a slight edge. The Marlins probably need to win both of these games, though.

Games Two and Six:
CHC: Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43, 211.1, 245, 50, 15, 1.10, 2.81)
FLA: Brad Penny (14-10, 4.13, 196.1, 138, 56, 21, 1.28, 4.36)

Penny's numbers are a bit misleading, as he struggled a bit in the first half, and was, on the whole, much more effective in the second half. If the Marlins can touch Prior for a few runs, Penny can make it hold.

That's a big if, though. Prior just 2-hit the best hitting team in the National League, and he might be the best pitcher on the planet not named Pedro (and could soon be the best, period). If Prior is on, Cubs win, period, and the fact that he's a righty makes it even more lopsided.

Huge edge for the Cubs.

Games Three and Seven:
CHC: Kerry Wood (14-11, 3.20, 211.0, 266, 100, 24, 1.19, 4.12)
FLA: Mark Redman (14-9, 3.59, 190.2, 151, 61, 16, 1.22, 4.12)

Kerry Wood's success largely depends on whether he's locating his curveball or not. If he's missing, he'll walk guys--and hit guys, he hit 21 this season--and be beatable. If that curve is getting over, then comparisons to Roger Clemens are apt. The Marlins need to hope that Wood can't find the plate, because they're unlikely to hit him.

After struggling in Minnesota and Detroit, Mark Redman found the National League much more inviting, and had a strong season. But the anemic Cubs offense has 4 regulars with an OPS over .900 against lefties this year, which combined with Wood's chances of dominance, and the Marlins' struggles against righties, and this is a big advantage Cubs.

Game Four:
CHC: Matt Clement (14-12, 4.11, 201.2, 171, 79, 22, 1.23, 4.52)
FLA: Dontrelle Willis (14-6, 3.30, 160.2, 142, 58, 13, 1.28, 4.07)

This is a matchup of two pitchers who were essentially traded for each other. Willis will probably get the NL Rookie of the Year, although he doesn't deserve it as much as Brandon Webb (but at least he deserves it more than Hideki Matsui). The fact is, Willis was largely a result of ballpark and luck, and while he should be a good pitcher for many years if he stays healthy, and could be an excellent pitcher if he continues to improve, we're not likely witnessing the arrival of a legend.

As for Clement, he's a solid pitcher with an ugly goatee, who finally figured out how to pitch last season. Clement can be untouchable and he can be streaky, it all depends on whether he's throwing strikes. If he's walking batters, and not striking out a lot more, he's not going to be very good. Fortunately, the Cubs are only throwing him out there for one game, and it's not likely one they'll NEED to win. It's a good thing, because this matchup is definitely an advantage for the Marlins.

The way the rotation sets up, and with the struggles of the Marlins against righties and the strength of the Cubs against lefties, the only thing that seems to be standing in the way of the Cubs making their first World Series in 58 years is a damn Billy Goat. And I don't believe in any stupid curses. Cubs in Six.

Tomorrow: Yankees vs. Red Sox. Hopefully up much earlier than this was.

Yes, I know I didn't do the benches or the bullpens. I'm not an NL guy anyway, this should be enough.

--posted at 12:00 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Monday, October 06, 2003

Victory! (Part One)
by Larry Mahnken

I believed that the Yankees entered the playoffs with the "easiest" road to the World Series, simply because they were more likely to win their series than any other team, and to win it quicker, allowing them to set their rotation. I felt that the only way Twins could win was to play great, while the Yankees played poorly. I guess I was sort of right.

The Yankees did beat the Twins in four games, and now they can use their regular rotation in the ALCS--Mussina, Pettitte, Clemens, and Wells. But it wasn't easy. The Twins pitched very well for the first three games, the Yankees hit poorly, and their defense was exposed in Game One.

But the Twins didn't hit well, and it cost them the series. Part of that has to be the Yankees' pitching, but a large part of it was the fact that the Twins aren't a very good offensive team to begin with, and that they constructed their lineup poorly.

I complain about Joe Torre's lineup construction...constantly. The problem with the Yankees is more one of utilization, wasting their strengths by putting a low-OBP/high-SLG batter at the top of the lineup, and a low-SLG/high-OBP batter in the middle of it. In the end, they still have good hitters in those spots. but a switch could result in more production.

The Twins, on the other hand, had problems with not only their lineup construction, but with which the choices they had made assembling their roster, and choosing who to put in the lineup in the first place. While not having any great hitters, like a Giambi or a Posada, the Twins could fairly be said to have five good hitters: Corey Koskie, Shannon Stewart, Doug Mientkiewicz, A.J. Pierzynski, and Silent Bob. The strength of these hitters was mainly in OBP, not power, making it more important that these batters be bunched together to maximize run scoring opportunities. The Twins also had two players of absolutely no offensive value--Cristian Guzman and Luis Rivas. Lacking superior options in the middle infield, the Twins had to play them, but it should be a no-brainer that they bat at the bottom of the lineup, to minimize their plate appearances.

Well, the Twins batted Guzman ninth, but thanks to the doctrine of speed, Luis Rivas showed the Yankees his fantastic out making abilities from the second spot all series long and got on base...(drumroll)...ZERO TIMES! Let's everybody give Luis a big hand! Way to go, Luis! Of course, Shannon Stewart only got on base SEVEN times in the four game series, so those outs weren't wasted, they pretty much killed the Twins.

Gardenhire also inexplicably batted Corey Koskie, perhaps the Twins' best hitter, at the bottom of the lineup the entire series (though understandable in Games 2 and 4, as he's Luis Rivas vs. lefties), and A.J. Pierzynski, a fine hitter in his own right, at the bottom every game until the last one (again, odd, because he also hits lefties worse than righties).

Doug Mientkiewicz, the first baseman, had a respectable season, but one has to wonder why they kept him and let go of David Ortiz, who makes $500,000 less for the Red Sox. Ortiz would have been the one dangerous bat in the Twins' lineup, and could have made an enormous difference in this series. I know the answer--Mientkiewicz is as smooth as Keith Hernandez with the glove, while Ortiz is a smooth as an oatmeal-raisin cookie. But the offfensive power of Ortiz so greatly drowns out his defensive shortcomings, it was a foolish decision to keep Mientkiewicz--and for more.

But while it's a nice exercise to look at how the Twins could have constructed their roster and their lineup, and might have won, the fact is that the Twins had a positively Boone-esque .529 OPS in this series, and that they stayed close only because the Yankees weren't able to hit the Twins' pitching, and once that happened, it was over. Stewart and Torii Hunter were brilliant in the series, but nobody else hit over .250 for the Twins. Perhaps it was the Yankees' pitching, but it was a terrible showing by the Minnesota lineup, too.

Now the Yankees move on the ALCS, where they'll face Oakland or Boston, and be in about as good a position as they could have hoped for to beat them. With Zito and Pedro going tonight, neither pitcher will be available until Game Three of the ALCS, against Roger Clemens.

The ALCS promises to be exciting no matter who wins tonight, and while the two best teams in the National League were knocked out of the playoffs, the Cubs trying to break their 58-year pennant drought is about as compelling a story as MLB could hope for this October.

Already, this has been one of the best postseasons ever, and these have been the kind of games that make new fans. It's a good thing that you had to pay to see most of the games.

--posted at 10:29 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Sunday, October 05, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

If that was the last game of Roger Clemens's career, he couldn't have done much better than that. The Yankees still aren't hitting, they still aren't getting good defense, but just like in the 2000 postseason, when they didn't start hitting until the end of Game 2 of the ALCS, their pitching has put them in positon to advance.

The Yankees' pitching can't be given full credit, of course. The Twins don't have an especially strong lineup to begin with, and they've been hitting worse than normal in this series. Having an offensive sinkhole like Luis Rivas batting second isn't helping the situation any, either.

This afternoon, the Yankees try to close it out with David Wells on the mound. Wells struggled in the second half with back problems, but when his back started feeling better in the final weeks, he started performing better. While he's an enormous risk on the mound--if his back is sore, the Yankees are in big trouble--and his style of putting the ball in play might ruin the Yankees in the Metrodome anyway, it's a risk that's lessened somewhat by the victory yesterday. I would still rather pitch Mussina today on full rest, and take the chance of Pettitte on short rest tomorrow, but I can see an immediate advantage of this strategy: if the Yankees win today with Wells, they can go with their 3 best starters in the first three games of the ALCS, and if they lose and go with Mussina tomorrow, they can still start Pettitte and Clemens in the first two games (and have Mussina for Game 3 and Game 7).

There will be no "I told you so's" from me if Wells does get bombed today, but I am anxious.

It was really a great day for baseball fans, with four fantastic games. The Marlins knocked out the defending NL Champion Giants, ending the game on a play at the plate that probably should never have been made. The Braves found some offense against the Cubs, and forced a Game Five in Atlanta, where Kerry Wood will take on Mike Hampton and 95 years of history. The greatest offense ever could only score one run in ten innings, and should have lost if not for the bonehead plays of Eric Byrnes and Miguel Tejada, but finally won in the bottom of the 11th--the first extra inning postseason game in Boston since Game 6 of the '75 Series--on a walkoff home run by Trot "Righty Killer" Nixon off of Rich "Raging" Harden.

It was great to sit down and watch four games like that in a row on FOX...oh wait, only one of those games was on FOX. The rest were on cable--and two of them were on ESPN2. Not ESPN, ESPN2!!! And instead of seeing the great Sox/A's game, FOX viewers were treated to COPS and America's Most Wanted!

Well, at least they make up for that today, with...only one game on FOX again. It's nice to know that Major League Baseball has nurtured a healthy relationship with the network that broadcasts their games, so that they can ensure that every playoff game is viewed by as few people as possible. Well, I gotta tell you, I'm thrilled to be seeing the Cardinals play the Cowboys on FOX rather than A's/Sox.

This never would have happened if baseball had a salary cap, of course.

--posted at 8:12 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Saturday, October 04, 2003

Steinbrenner: Torre will be back next year:
by Larry Mahnken

"I have great respect for Al Neuharth as a businessman and an innovator,'' the owner said in a statement. ``On this one, he's wrong. He's been caught off base. Joe Torre is my manager. I support him. He's done the job. And he'll be my manager next year."

Of course, all his coaches will be fired...what, he doesn't want to come back now? Oh, that's too bad.

--posted at 10:21 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

It's been 1,072 days since Mike Piazza's fly ball to deep center landed in Bernie Williams's glove, sealing the Yankees' third consecutive championship. Do you remember how you felt that night? Happy, certainly, but how happy? Probably happier than the year before, because they had beaten the Mets, maybe more than in '98, when it was expected.

But it was nothing like 1996. And for someone in their late-30's to late 40's, '96 was nothing compared to 1977, was it? Your first World's Championship is always the best; the most pure, unadulterated joy you will ever experience in sports, because it's new. For me, there will never be anything like 1996. 19 years old, five years removed from becoming a hardcore fan of a team at the bottom of the American League. I never thought I'd see it happen. I cried.

Now, it's not the same. It's hardly even fun. Sure, if they win the World Series, I'll be happy, I'll float for weeks. But if they lose... they're not supposed to lose, just like they weren't supposed to win in 1996. Thursday night's game, as good a game as has been pitched by any Yankee in this postseason run, was not an exhilirating experience for me--not until the bottom of the seventh. I sat there watching, expecting the worst, waiting for the defense to blow the game. The win was relief, not joy.

After a while, winning does get boring. Oh, poor Yankees fan, you're thinking to yourself sarcastically--and rightfully so. I've experienced more joy in the past decade than the fan of any other baseball team has, because my team has been more successful in the postseason for past decade than any other baseball team. I'm lucky. But after awhile, the joy of winning lessens, because you start to expect it.

I cannot relate to a Cubs fan. Ninety-five years. This isn't the Red Sox, failures in the World Series for eighty-five years--this is the Cubbies, who haven't won a postseason series of any kind since 1908. And if a 19-year old kid had thought to touch second base, they might not have won that series either.

They're one game away from ending that streak. One game away from advancing to a higher postseason round for the first time ever. And for Cubs fans, that would be pure joy. Even if they lost the NLCS, even if they were swept, Cubs fans would finally have something to celebrate. It wouldn't be their fondest hope, but for this year, it would be good enough.

They've been here before, they've been painfully close before, and I'm sure that no Cubs fan is looking ahead to the Marlins or Giants. They know that there's still one more win to get.

I can't help but envy those Cubs fans, so close to something they've never experienced, a postseason series win. I can't help but feel guilty, pulling for a team that has won so much, and given me so much, to give me a little more. How selfish am I?

Ehh. But whaddya gonna do about it? Go Yanks!
(Go Cubbies!)

--posted at 2:04 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Friday, October 03, 2003

What it's all about
by Larry Mahnken

I've decided that there's not enough pictures of hot girls on my site, so here's a picture of my friend Chrissy wearing a 1996 World Series ring:

And if Derek Jeter happens to be reading this, email me so I can hook you two up. ;-)

--posted at 10:25 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

by Larry Mahnken

Again, the Yankees played poorly, and again the Twins got excellent starting pitching, and again, the Twins nearly won the game. Disaster was averted by the Yankees--and an opportunity was lost by the Twins.

The Yankees have been a very streaky team this season, sometimes looking like an unstoppable force, and at other times rolling over and playing dead for inferior competition. They haven't quite done that in this round, but while the offense has been anemic and the defense even more pathetic than usual, the pitching has been brilliant, and it's the only thing that's saved them (that and the mediocre Minnesota offense). That type of play has gotten them a 1-1 split so far against the Twins, but against almost any other team in the playoffs, they would be down 0-2 after two blowout losses.

There's good and bad news for the next two games. The good news is that the Yankees are the best road team in baseball this season, by a lot, and better there than they are at home. For some reason, their bats come alive on the road, and that's going to be vital. That's because the bad news is that the Metrodome isn't going to do anything to help the Yankees' middle infield. Jeter and Soriano are going to have difficulty fielding anything not right at them. Exacerbating that problem is the fact that Joe Torre has said that David Wells will pitch Sunday, win or lose tomorrow.

The good thing about that is that the Twins are poor against lefties, and Wells in particular has had success against the Twins--hell, he's had a Perfect freaking Game against the Twins. That undoubtedly affected Torre's decision to start him. But the fact that he's been struggling with back problems in the second half, and the impact his low-BB, high balls-in-park style will have on the Yankees' defense makes him very risky to me. I would have gone with Mike Mussina, who strikes out more batters, and has been better than Wells in the second half, then gone with Pettitte in Game Five, if necessary. Hopefully, Wells' back will be fine, and the defense won't be seriously tested, but I think Torre's taking an unnecessary risk.

The Yankees are alive and kicking, but they need their bats to wake up. Maybe they can win this series without them--they beat an Oakland team that was at least as good as the Twins in 2000 without hitting--but they'll be knocked out of the ALCS in short order.

Speaking of the ALCS, Oakland is, once again, in a position to eliminate their first round opponent and advance there, having beaten the mighty Red Sox for the second consecutive game. First of all, it's kind of silly that so many people thought the A's were overmatched when they had won the season series from the Red Sox--and it wasn't because of Mark Mulder, who was 0-1 against them. The A's always had a good chance in this series.

But the Sox aren't dead, not by any means. I think that this is a team that can come back from 0-3 in a 7 game series, and this is a team that is absolutely dominant at home, while the A's are a losing team on the road. I think it's a better than even chance that the Red Sox will be going back to Oakland for a Game Five, with Pedro on the hill. You can't count that team out until the last out is made. I sure as hell am not.

Not that I wouldn't mind seeing them swept, of course.

--posted at 10:12 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Thursday, October 02, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

Only a couple of quick comments today, because I was up too late and I have to work soon.

- The Yankees' losses the past two seasons in the playoffs were frustrating, maybe even embarassing, but they lost to great teams--they lost to the teams that won the World Series. The Twins are not going to win the World Series. They're a good team, but they're not nearly as good as the Yankees. If the Yankees lose this series, it will be because they played poorly, not just because the Twins played well. They have to win.

- Rob Neyer wrote yesterday that the Twins are now the favorites, because it's going to be really tough for the Yankees to win 3 of 4 from Minnesota. Those would be the Yankees that won 13 straight against the Twins, right? Easy? No. But I think it's at least as likely to happen as the Twins splitting the next two. Didn't almost everyone predict that the Yankees would win 3 of 4 in the first place?

- Are the A's now the favorites, Rob?

- Why is Todd Walker batting 3rd?

- Oh, that's why.

- Can't Terrence Long do anything?

- Why the hell was that game at 10:00? Couldn't they move the Cubs/Braves game to 1:00? It's not like Cubs fans can't handle afternoon games. Instead, we had to stay up until nearly 3:00am to see perhaps the best postseason game this year. Go MLB.

- BTW, that's a great reason to root for the Cubbies to make the World Series. Day games. Think MLB might make them play in U.S. Cellular?

- Rush Limbaugh is a big, fat idiot

- I bet there's a lot of bleary eyes in Boston. The worst part of that loss, though, was that you've got to hear all of that "Curse" talk. Because losing like that's not enough.

- Rich Harden really deserved that win, didn't he? John Smoltz, too.

- Anyone else think, "Rick Ankiel" for a second? Nah, the A's would never let that happen.

- Gotta go to work.

--posted at 9:16 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Wednesday, October 01, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

As APNY said yesterday, let the overreacting begin.

Okay, so it's a lot bigger than one loss to the Red Sox in July--or even September--but it's not the end. One of many problems I have with the current playoff format is how the Divisional Series is only five games, rather than the seven of the LCS and World Series. Now the Twins are one third of the way towards winning the series, rather than one quarter of the way. It's a format that encourages the upset, and the more I think about it, the splitting of Games One and Two, which many Red Sox fans complained aids the Yankees, in fact aids the Twins far more. Now the Twins' bullpen, which might have been shorthanded by Romero and Hawkins had they played tonight, will be completely rested by Game Two. This isn't a complaint, but an observation. Really, I'm happy that I get to see the game on Thursday--I've got to work until 6:30.

A reader emailed me to say:

Offense wins games, defense wins championships

This is an old cliche that has a kernel of truth to it. If you don't give up runs, you can't lose, but if you score lots of runs, you can still lose if you give up more. Really, neither offense or defense wins championships, you need a combination of both.

Now, of course, when people usually say "defense wins championships" in baseball, they mean pitching and defense wins championships. The Diamondbacks won a World Series on this theory, but more typical is the case of last year's Angels, which combined great pitching with great hitting.

Yesterday, defense lost the game for the Yankees. Cristian Guzman was foolish when he tried to go to third on Shannon Stewart's single to left in the third--he may have run the Twins out of a rally--but he was barely safe on a missed tag. He then scored on a shallow fly to center field, because Bernie Williams lacked the arm strength to stop him.

The other two runs were also the fault of the defense, as well. In the sixth inning, with Al Borland, er, Kevin Smith, er, Matt LeCroy on first and one out, Torii Hunter singled to right-center, but Bernie Williams was unable to field the ball, and it rolled all the way to the wall. As LeCroy rounded third, Williams got the throw in to the cutoff man Soriano, who looked home, then threw off-balance over Aaron Boone's head. This might not have been a total disaster, but there was nobody backing up third base--Mike Mussina was behind home plate. Hunter scored, and it was 3-0.

Now, I complain about the Yankees' defense all the time, but there's really nothing that can be done about it now. It was really too late do anything about it once they stopped signing free agents; they're contrained by the roster they have, and can't afford to bench a superior offensive player like Jeter or Soriano for a better glove man who can't hit. But yesterday's follies could have been avoided by one simple move that Joe Torre has probably never considered: switch Hideki Matsui and Bernie Williams in the outfield. Matsui has about the same range in center as Bernie--perhaps more since the knee surgery, and a stronger arm. The first run would never have scored with Matsui in center, and the second and third might have been avoided, too. There's really no reason for Bernie to be in center field anymore, only loyalty and respect, but those things are best saved when you're not trying to win a championship. You go with your best team, and if you can show respect and be loyal at the same time, all the better. But you try to win, first.

If the Yankees lose this series--or really, any series--you can expect George to go bananas and clean house once more. Torre would assuredly be gone, perhaps Cashman as well (which would be foolish), and he'll try to spend all the money he can in the offseason. But what good will that do? Signing Vlad would be a great move, he hits and plays good defense, but it doesn't look like he wants to be in New York. George is more likely to go after someone like Gary Sheffield, who is a spectacular hitter, but is older and nothing special with the glove. They're putting weight on the wrong side of the scale with that move, they don't need more offense.

They could non-tender Boone, move Jeter to third and sign Kaz Matsui...but that is never going to happen, so let's stop talking about it. The Yankees have stuck themselves with a lousy defense, and that's what they've got to work with.

They can work with it, of course. There's no team in this year's playoffs particularly well-equipped to exploit the Yankees' defense by putting the ball in play a lot. Stuff like yesterday just happens sometimes, and it shouldn't be expected to happen again--just feared. Mike Mussina pitched great yesterday, and Felix Heredia did a pretty good job. Jeff Nelson came in for one batter in the eighth and served up his specialty: a walk on a 3-2 count.

What really lost the game for the Yankees was their hitting. It's not that they didn't hit--they got 9 base hits and three walks--it's that they didn't put those hits together until the ninth inning. They'll have to put together better games that that if they want to win, and while you don't want to rely on the home run, that's probably the most important thing the Yankees need to do, hit home runs. Fortunately for the Yankees, the two pitchers they're facing next gave up a combined 59 home runs this season. It's not going to be a feast for the Yankees--Radke was brilliant in September--but it's not by any means over.

The Twins played yesterday's game the way they have to if they're going to win this series. They didn't get to Mussina, but they got runs on the board, and they didn't walk many batters, and didn't give up home runs, and they got the game to their best relievers with the lead. I said yesterday that a short series usually turns on a lucky break, and Shannon Stewart's great catch on Hideki Matsui's drive in the ninth inning--an unlucky break for the Yankees--might be the play that wins the series for the Twins.

It's a tough loss, they're a third of the way towards elimination, but this isn't like the losses last year, or even the ones in the 2001 World Series. They lost a close game, but they weren't dominated. Nothing I saw yesterday makes me think that the Yankees are overmatched in anyway, and there's only one thing--the defense--that I can see from yesterday that might lose us the series. It's not time to panic, not yet. They should still win this series, and even if they lose tomorrow, they still can win this series. They just are making it a lot tougher on themselves, that's all.

* * *

Just for fun, here's the results of the Bill James Prediction System for the four Division Series:

New York 110, Minnesota 39
Oakland 104, Boston 25
Atlanta 82, Chicago 71
San Francisco 100, Florida 27

Don't read anything more into this than there really is, it's just a toy. Last year, it was 2-4 with 1 tie, and 0-3 in the Division Series. There's a discussion about it from Baseball Primer last season here, that outlines the many, many flaws in it. It's still fun, though.

--posted at 10:57 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

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