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Larry Mahnken and SG's | ||
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| Replacement Level Yankees Weblog |
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Larry Mahnken and SG's | ||
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| Replacement Level Yankees Weblog |
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Featuring: Larry Mahnken SG sjohnny TVerik Sean McNally Fabian McNally John Brattain  
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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away. Saturday, April 30, 2005
by SG
At 9-14, the Yankees were desperate for a win. On a rainy day today, they sent out one of the few legitimate prospects in a pretty barren farm system out to try and break a 3 game losing streak. In addition to having lost 3 straight games, the Yankees had scored a total of 2 runs in three games, a feat they last achieved in 1999.
Friday, April 29, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/28/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. A 1 for 5 with a strikeout (12) night continued Robinson Cano’s slide. After opening the season as an unstoppable force, Cano is now experiencing his first rough patch; 9 for his last 31. One thing to keep in mind about yesterday’s performance though was that he faced LHP in 3 of his 5 at bats and was 0 for 3 with a strikeout against southpaws, while going 1 for 2 against RHP. Melky Cabrera broke out of his recent slide in a huge way and Eric Duncan continued his hot hitting in yesterday’s Trenton slugfest. The two would combine for 8 of the team’s 12 hits as Duncan was 3 for 6 with a home run (2) and Melky was 5 for 6 with a double (2), a home run (2), a strikeout (11), and a stolen base (2). After starting the season off ice cold as far as hits, but walking a good amount, Duncan has ceased with the walking and proceeding with the hitting and is now 10 for his last 25, enough to get his season average up to .241. Prior to yesterday’s game, Melky’s average had actually been some .030 points behind Duncan, but he jumped over to him and is up to .253, which hopefully is just a short stop as he heads towards his customary .300. While Melky and Eric were putting the ball in play with terrific results, Bronson Sardinha was left with a no contact night. The RF finished the game 0 for 4 with 2 walks (7) and 4 strikeouts (22) and what was once a decent start, especially in comparison to the rest of Prospects Row, is now a poor one. Hector Made and Erold Andrus both pulled their averages’ to the .250 mark with 2 hit performances last night. Made was 2 for 4 with a strikeout (12) and Andrus was 2 for 4 with a home run (2). While both hitters have BA of .250, Andrus’ has displayed more power and patience thus far and as a result his OPS is .104 points higher. Rudy Guillen also picked up a hit, but overall was only 1 for 4. More so than any other Yankee affiliate, I’m scared when hitters go to Tampa and pretty much hold my breath as far as their prospect status. Abel Gomez picked up the win for Tampa by going 5.1-4-3-3-2-4-0. Once again, he tired in his last inning as he seems to be working through some of the rust as he would give up 2 walks, a double, and 2 runs (1 was an inherited runner scoring) in his final 1.1 innings. He should be back to racking up big K totals soon enough though, now all that is needed is for Eric Abreu to show up… Tim Battle was 1 for 5 with a triple (2) and a strikeout from the leadoff spot in last night’s Charleston loss. Battle now has 9 XBH in 86 at bats and is really showing off his power, something that some had questioned based on his minor league work up to this point. It’d still be nice if he could get the BA up some though. Irwil Rojas continues to cool off offensively; he was 0 for 5 with a strikeout (7) and continues to play questionable, at best, defense. Yesterday’s game saw Rojas give up 2 more passed ball to bring his total to 8, which incidentally is 2 more than the amount of walks that he has thus far. There’s pretty much no way that could ever be anything other than bad, so if he could rectify this issue, that’d be grrrrrreat. Estee Harris continued to frustrate with a 1 for 5 night, but at the least he did not strike out and Jon Poterson…was not good. The much heralded, by some, RF was 0 for 4 with a walk (4) and 2 strikeouts (20), so at the least he’s managed to really improve his BB:K numbers lately. Unfortunately, his AVG, OBP, and SLUG are all still on the interstate. Brett Smith had his second straight hittable start, but this time around the hits were hard and he was not able to post the K numbers to counteract this. As a result, his final line was an ugly 5-10-6-5-1-3-0 and after looking so good early on that some were seriously contemplating whether or not he should be promoted, Smith has come back to Earth. His seasonal line of 23-24-10-9-5-23-0 is more in line with what I would have expected this year, and still pretty decent in its own right.
Thursday, April 28, 2005
by SG
It's still not time to panic. After two straight losses, the Yankees are 9-13, and it was frustrating to watch them tonight, but it is still too early to worry.
Minor League Notes: 4/27/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. Robinson Cano’s recent slump continued in Columbus’ 13-2 victory this afternoon. The 22-year-old 2B went 2 for 6 with a double (8) in order to drop his average to .347. During his recent slide he has gone 8 for 26 with 3 doubles. It has been an extremely tough time indeed. As a note on the issue of Cano and his lack of walks this year, because he has been hitting the ball so hard and so consistently, I don’t care much that he hasn’t walked. You want guys to walk because they’re letting pitches they can’t put a good swing on go by, not just to walk for the sake of walking. Additionally, Cano hasn’t been swinging at everything as much as he’s been hitting a good portion of pitches within the foul lines, which gives him less of a chance to work the deep counts that generate walks. AA Trenton (Eastern League): While I’m not quite ready to proclaim Sean Henn fully back yet, I can’t say his performance thus far has been anything less than extremely impressive. After tonight’s 7-2-0-0-2-6-0 performance, Henn’s seasonal line stands at 25.1-16-2-2-9-21-1. I’m still going to be extremely cautious about him because of the inconsistency he displayed in ’04, but yes, right now Henn is showing why the Yankees felt he was worth a then record draft and follow bonus record (granted, the fastball isn’t the same). Though I’m being extra cautious as far as my feelings towards Henn, I’m going to throw caution to the wind for Eric Duncan and say that following an extremely slow start to his AA career, the 20-year-old 3B has arrived offensively. Duncan was 2 for 4 with a strikeout (13) to pull the average up to .219 and he is now 7 for his last 19 with 3 multi-hit games out of his last 5. Melky Cabrera, who it could once be said was off to a similarly cold start, has on the other hand only gotten colder. Cabrera took the collar once more; this time it came in the form of an 0 for 3 night, though he did manage to work a walk (3). Bronson Sardinha also worked a walk (5), in addition to going 1 for 3. A+ Tampa (Florida State League): Similar to Eric Duncan’s situation, I feel about ready to proclaim Rudy Guillen’s season opening slump as over and done with. The enigmatic CF/RF went 2 for 5 with a triple (2) and a strikeout (21) in today’s contest to boost his average up to .243. His OBP has finally joined his SLG in .300+ territory. LF Erold Andrus also had a good game, as he would go 3 for 5 to bring his average .236. Andrus and Guillen have kept close to each other in terms of recent performance while hitting 4-5 in the lineup. Hector Made was 1 for 4 with a walk (6), which is way ahead of where he was early on last season and also just about the only positive I can find to say about him thus far. A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): Tim Battle had himself a nice little game tonight where he could show off his tools, 2 for 6 with a double (4) and 2 stolen bases (13), while also showing off his weakness, 3 strikeouts (32). Of the 3 strikeouts, 2 were swinging, which clashes with the point I’m about to make; while Tim Battle strikes out a ton, it is not so much because he has no clue of the strike zone, which would make me more worried about the Ks than I am, rather it is because his ability to make contact isn’t the greatest. To be honest, Battle does have his fair share of at bats where he goes up hacking at high fastballs and off speed stuff out of the zone, but for the most part, and especially as of late, he seems to have a plan that he attempts to execute at the plate. The problem is just that his ability to make contact comes and goes whether he’s swinging at good pitches or not. Irwil Rojas was 2 for 5 with a strikeout (6) and his strikeouts have now caught up with his walks, which brings to mind the fact that after being a walking machine early on Rojas has not been doing that much as of late. His strikeouts have actually caught up with his passed balls for that matter, though he did not have any today, thankfully. Continuing his recent stretch of not sucking, Estee Harris went 1 for 4 with a walk (6) and a strikeout (15). Jon Poterson was 0 for 2 with a walk (3) and a strikeout (18) before being replaced late in the game. It’s nice to see that he is now beginning to take his share of base on balls as his early season plate appearances that all resulted in weak pop-ups or ground outs to the 2B or a strikeout were really infuriating, especially since Gio Gonzalez looks like a stud right now (I couldn’t hold out any longer).
Wednesday, April 27, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/26/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. Robinson Cano was 1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts (11) as he continues to drift back to Earth following his customary hot start. Though Cano has definitely slowed, he is still 6 for his last 20, which is a stretch many hitters, I can think of quite a few Yankee prospects right away, would take. AA Trenton (Eastern League): The Trenton Thunder were shut out, which generally means poor nights all around for Prospects Row. Of the trio, Eric Duncan had the best offensive game by going 1 for 4, which is good enough to raise his average a bit and at this point, any thing that can be done to push his numbers towards respectability will be accepted without complaint. Unfortunately, Duncan had a bad game on defense as he committed 2 throwing errors to bring his season total to 6 overall miscues. Once again, for those ready to permanently move him from the hot corner, he made 12 errors in his first 21 games last year. Bronson Sardinha was next up in terms of productivity as he was 1 for 4 with a strikeout (18), and Melky Cabrera, in what is becoming an alarming trend, had the least productive night by going 0 for 4 with a strikeout (10). Throwing in the whole never walking any more thing with the hitting slump so far, Cabrera has been one of the weaker links in a weak Trenton lineup. SUSPENDED A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): Tim Battle was 0 for 4 with a strikeout on this night, but did manage to reach base on an error by the 3B during his 2nd at bat. Once he got on base, he did as he has been wont to do and stole 2nd (11). As I have said previously, Battle is very raw on the base paths, but still manages to make up for it with truly outstanding speed. Irwil Rojas was 1 for 4 with another strikeout (5), as he seems to be regressing to the realm of good contact hitters. His defense behind the plate continues to be an issue as well as he allowed 2 SBs and another passed ball (6). Estee Harris had a good day at the plate as he would go 2 for 4 with a home run (2) to pull his average up to .176 and is now 5 for his last 14 with 2 doubles and a home run; his hottest stretch of the season. Lastly, Jon Poterson was 1 for 4 with a single as he has recently put together his own hot…more like mild, streak.
Is he a 'True' Yankee now? by SG
When the Yankees got Alex Rodriguez, they got one of the best players in the game. However, for whatever reason, he's been criticized for not being a 'true' Yankee. Rodriguez had a somewhat down year by his lofty standards, struggled with RISP and was involved in a couple of incidents which tarnished his image. Last night, he may have arrived as a Yankee by blasting 3 HRs and driving in 10 runs in a 12-4 thrashing of the Angels. He even got a curtain call, which I don't remember him getting last year.
Tuesday, April 26, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/25/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. AAA Columbus (International League): Robinson Cano finished Columbus’ game strong in order to avoid me making serious mention of a slump, in reference to him, for the first time this year. Cano began the game 0 for 3 with a strikeout (9), but then doubled (7) in each of his last two at bats, one to CF and one to LF, to make this a game where he improved his AVG, OBP, and SLG. Unfortunately, Cano also made his 3rd error of the season when he muffed a catch. AA Trenton (Eastern League): DAY OFF For the first time in what seems like forever, all 3 of the primary Tampa offensive prospects had positive nights. Hector Made had the least impressive night of the three, as he was 1 for 4 with a walk (5). Rudy Guillen flashed the power and legs that help make him a 5-tool prospect in going 2 for 5 with a triple (1) and 2 strikeouts (20), as his K rate continues it’s climb towards extremely alarming. Finally, Erold Andrus was 2 for 4 with a walk (7) and a strikeout (13). While Guillen’s BB:K numbers are depressing, I have been impressed with the improvement that Andrus has shown in this department; Made has been somewhat decent as well, at least in comparison to ’03. Jeff Marquez authored the best start of his ’05 season in leading Charleston victory, but the night was not without its hiccups. Marquez was dominant for much of the early portion of the game, including one stretch from the 2nd to 3rd innings where he struck out 3 men in a row on a total of 9 pitches. His power change-up was the primary weapon on this night and the opposition’s hitters had a ton of trouble with it. However, later on in the game he either tired or lost it somewhat as he began missing consistently, but was able to work out of jams due to his defense picking him up somewhat and turning some nice plays behind him. Finally, the defense failed him in the 7th as Estee Harris dropped a fly ball after Ben Jones made an error at 1B. In all, the start was impressive in that it showed that Marquez can get the job done at the full season level when he’s on, but one must still be concerned about his control at this point as he has now walked 13 men in 17.2 innings. His final line for the night was 7-4-2-0-3-5-0. Marcos Vechionacci was once again MIA due to the injury he suffered in the home plate collision, though he is expected back sometime on the upcoming road trip, but on this night the rest of the hitters weren’t as good. Irwil Rojas had a forgettable game that included some half-hearted swings and a strikeout (4) as he took the collar in 4 at bats. Jon Poterson had one at bat conclude in a nice run scoring single, but was otherwise quiet in his 4 at bats. Estee Harris was 1 for 4 with a double (3) and a strikeout (14), but the double was more luck than anything else as the ball took an unexpected hop on the 1B allowing Harris to utilize his legs for the two base hit. Finally, Tim Battle was 0 for 2 with a walk (7), 2 strikeouts (28) and a HBP (1). One strikeout was the product of a lopsided AB that saw Battle go down swinging on a high fastball, the 3rd pitch in the encounter, while the other strikeout was just Battle being caught looking on a 1-2 curveball. Battle also managed to steal his 10th base of the season in this game, which is impressive, but excitement about his base running capabilities must also be taken in the context that of the 4 times Battle has been caught stealing, all 4 have been on pickoffs. This is to say, Tim Battle is really, really, really fast, but also really, really, really raw on the base paths and tends to become overanxious leading to him getting caught leaning the wrong way. The final aspect of Battle’s night to consider is the catch he made going back in CF on a ball that seemed surely ticketed for extra bases.
Monday, April 25, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/23&24/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. On Saturday afternoon Robinson Cano had his 2nd poor game in the last 4 outings prior as he faced off against LHP and former Yankee prospect Randy Kiesler. Though he had a couple hard hit balls, Cano finished the game with no positive results, as he was 0 for 5. He followed this disappointing game with his 2nd three hit game of the last 4 games. Once again, all 3 hits were singles and Cano’s average now sits at .354 with an OPS still above 1.000. This is a very critical portion of the first month for Cano as he has clearly cooled off from the offensive heights that he began the season at and will need to show that he can still be an effective player when not white-hot. Ramon Ramirez started the Sunday game and did not have his control, as the results will show. Ramirez’s final line of 4.1-5-4-4-3-4-0 was not one to write home about and he has yet to get on one of his customary rolls where his walk to strikeout ratio is spectacular. In Columbus promotion news, Colter Bean has been freed, at least temporarily and Chien-Ming Wang will be starting on Saturday. I’m excited about Bean’s promotion and hope he will get a legitimate shot as I have been waiting for this day to come since I first started the Minor Yankee Blog. In addition, while I’m excited that Wang will get a shot, my expectations for him are not too high and while he may be a better prospect than Brad Halsey was last year, I was more sure/excited of/about Halsey’s promotion then than I am Wang’s now; he should still outdo whatever Jaret Wright would have given the Yanks though. Lastly, Andy Phillips was given the start at 1B today and performed, as his numbers from the past year+ would indicate. Hopefully, Phillips sees more time in place of Tino and/or Giambi, as he should be given the shot to at least take Ruben Sierra’s role. AA Trenton (Eastern League): The Trenton Thunder, after starting the year off in horrid fashion, are on a roll and the starting pitching has played a large role in the goodness. Jeff Karstens has been dominant all season long and the case was no different in his 4th start of the year on Saturday; Karstens’ final line was 8-4-1-1-1-6-0 and now sports a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings of work There is no fault to be found with any of Karstens’ ratios and he has made the transition to AA in spectacular fashion thus far. I’d give it another month or so of similar work before any noise about promotions should be made. Matt DeSalvo worked a dominant outing on Sunday as well, though for not nearly as long and with a messier line. DeSalvo went 5.2-2-0-0-5-6-0 to lower his ERA to 3.79. According to Frankie Pilliere of Pinstripes Plus who attended the game, DeSalvo worked his fastball mainly at 89-93 with most of them hitting 90 or 91. In addition, he says that of the 5 walks DeSalvo gave up, only 1 was “legitimate”. Still, DeSalvo’s control has been the most alarming aspect of his game thus far. In 19 innings, the RHP has walked 15. His control has never been something to be overly positive about, but never this bad when considering that some of last year’s AA control issues can be blamed on his injury. On Saturday Eric Duncan followed a terrific Friday night with a forgettable game. With yet another LHP on the mound, Duncan could only muster an 0 for 3 with 2 strikeout (12) night. Then on Sunday Duncan had another terrific game; 2 for 4 with his 1st home run of the year. The overall numbers are still pretty bad, but with 2 good games in his last 3 and overall better hitting of late, Duncan is definitely picking up the pace as he attempts to recover from a horrendous start. Tampa’s game was rained out on Saturday, but they played on Sunday and Tyler Clippard authored his best start of the year; 6-1-0-0-3-8-0. Clippard’s control, at least based on box scores, still seems to be off thus far. His hit rate has been better than last year though so perhaps it’s a case of a guy learning that a little bit of wildness may increase effectiveness or it could just be small sample size effect. Hector Made definitely appears to be back on the correct track following a long cold spell. The SS was 2 for 5 with a double (3) and is now 7 for his last 19. Erold Andrus also picked up a double (4) in his 4 at bats to get back to .200 and Rudy Guillen was 1 for 4 with a strikeout (18) to get his average up to .197. Christian Garcia started the Sunday game, Charleston’s 3rd in the last two days, and had his longest, most effective outing of the season. Garcia went 5-5-1-1-1-4-0, but was not able to pick up the win, as the offense did not arrive until a little after he left the game. While Garcia’s control has been reason for concern at times he has been one of the most exciting pitchers to follow thus far due to his spectacular curveball. Marcos Vechionacci played in the first half of the Charleston Saturday double header and was 0 for 2 with a walk (7) and a strikeout (11), but hurt his back on a play at the plate and did not appear for the rest of the weekend’s games. Irwil Rojas played both ends of Saturday’s doubleheader, a surprising move, but did not play on Sunday. On Saturday, Rojas was 1 for 5 with a double (4) and a walk (6). Rojas currently has more walks, 6, and extra base hits, 4, than strikeouts, 3, an impressive mark. His approach at the plate is indeed a thing to behold and while it does make one want to feel like Dioner Navarro is forgettable, you also have to consider that Navarro is 3 levels higher and only about a year older. In addition, while Navarro has been described as a lazy receiver, his actual defensive skills did garner praise, while Rojas seems to have a major problem as far as setting a target or blocking pitches. Jon Poterson had arguably his best 9 at bat stretch of the season and it involved only picking up 2 hits. The RF was a combined 2 for 9 with a walk (2) and 2 strikeouts (16) with one of the hits being his 1st home run of the season and just 2nd extra base hit overall. Since Poterson and Eric Duncan are the first names that come to mind as far as best power potential in the organization it is interesting that both are sitting on just 1 double and 1 HR at this point in the season, granted Poterson’s overall struggles have been more serious. Estee Harris did not play on Sunday, but had a very good Saturday where he went 2 for 6 with a double (2) and a walk (5). Harris has actually done a better job of making contact this year despite already accumulating 13 strikeouts in 43 at bats while not being a productive hitter. The team’s other multi-talented strikeout prone young OF also had a good weekend. Tim Battle played in all 3 games and was 5 for 12 with 2 strikeouts (26). After striking out 18 times in his first 36 at bats, Battle has “only” struck out 8 times in his last 28 at bats. His average is also up to .246 and his OBP has eclipsed the .300 mark. I was extremely concerned about him early on given the ridiculous K rate, but am now more confident in him validating me placing him as high on my preseason list as I did.
Sunday, April 24, 2005
The Andy and RJ show by SG
After a rough two games against Texas, the Yankees came out today and took care of business, playing a game that the front office probably dreamed of when they built this team in the offseason. Randy Johnson was dominating, despite not having tremendous velociy. Although he did get as high as 96 on one scoreboard reading, he was still working in the low 90s for the most part, but attacked Texas with sliders and impeccable control. He threw 103 pitches, 60 of them for strikes in 8 innings, allowing only 3 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, and with 7 strikeouts. I think most of us are not worried about RJ, but it was good to see him pitching so well. Tom Gordon pitched a perfect ninth, although his control wasn't great, but he looked pretty good as well.
Saturday, April 23, 2005
Sunk Costs, Part Deux by SG
Among the many moves that a lot of Yankee fans were not particularly enamored of was the Yankees' signing of Jaret Wright off of a career year with Atlanta. There was certainly good reason for concern.
Minor League Notes: 4/21&22/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. My hope that Robinson Cano’s poor offensive night on the 20th was just a bump in the road seems to have come true. Cano followed one of his more forgettable nights thus far this season by going 3 for 5 on Thursday and then 1 for 4 with a walk (5) and a strikeout (8) on Friday. So, as Womack continues to flounder at the ML level with an OPS in the low .600 range, Cano continues to stay above 1. for Columbus. Cano is obviously beginning to cool off somewhat and it’ll be interesting to see exactly where the cooling off period leaves him. Regardless, he is still most likely better for the ML team than Womack is right now, despite whatever the front office may think. Chien-Ming Wang started for Columbus last night and had a meh game. The first line of Yankee defense if/when everyone gives up on Kevin Brown went 6-12-4-4-0-3-0. Wang’s ERA now sits at 4.15 and he has not been nearly as good in this AAA stint as he was during last year’s but that should have been expected, to an extent. Still, Wang as been solid thus far and if nothing else, is proving he can eat innings even on his less than stellar days. On Thursday, Eric Duncan was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (10), making his situation look more hapless than usual. Then, on Friday, he finally arrived. Duncan had what is easily his best game of the year as the 20-year-old went 2 for 3 with a double (1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) and a walk. Hopefully, finally having his first XBH of the season will get Duncan back on the track he needs to be where those types of hits come more often than not. While Duncan’s stretch to start the season was pretty horrid, it was only 50 odd at bats (hopefully) and he had a month last year, June, where he was much worse and still ended the year with fine overall totals so don’t write off his ’05 just yet. Just like the frustrations with the ML Yankees, things are only being amplified by taking place early. In other Trenton offensive prospect news, Melky Cabrera has returned to the lineup and Bronson Sardinha promptly went cold. Sardinha is 0 for 7 with a strikeout (15) over the last two games while Cabrera has returned cold; the CF is 1 for 8 with 2 strikeouts (8). Due to uncharacteristically only having 1XBH thus far and his impatient hitting style only producing 1 BB, Cabrera has been just about as unproductive as Duncan thus far despite a BA about .40 points higher. On Thursday night Sean Henn authored a reasonably dominant start despite less than perfect control. Henn was good for 7.1-2-0-0-4-5-0 and now has a 0.98 ERA in 18.1 innings, as he has gotten off to a fast start, similar to last year. The key will be if the fatigue issues that plagued him last year, causing an eventual pattern of good start-bad start, will once again crop up. I’m also curious to see how much Henn’s bullpen conversion will be pushed off based on the performance he has had as a starter thus far in ’05. Steven White was initially scheduled to start Friday night’s game, but was not able to take the mound due to an injury he incurred during a side session. Perhaps the time off will allow him to clear his head and get his game together. Hector Made had what I guess could/should be qualified as a hot stretch, considering his seasonal numbers, over the Thursday-Friday games. Made was a combined 3 for 10 with a double (2), a walk (4), and a strikeout (10). His BA is now up to .219 with a .261 OBP and .281 SLG…terrific. Rudy Guillen and Erold Andrus were not as fortunate during the two games. Andrus was just plain horrid, while Guillen did have 1 hit to talk about. The hit for Guillen was a HR, his first of this year and 2nd over the past two seasons, but overall he was still only 1 for 9 with a walk (5) and 5 strikeouts (17). Andrus was 0 for 8 with 2 walks (6) and 4 strikeouts (12). If I were looking for positives from the seasons of Andrus and Guillen so far I’d have to look at the fact that their walk rates are decent. The most exciting news to come out of Tampa was definitely that the starter for Friday night’s game was Abel Gomez. Making his ’05 debut, Gomez was very good for 4 innings before losing control, literally, before walking 3 in his 5th and final inning. The final line for the LHP was 5-4-5-2-4-3-0. Gomez on the Tampa team definitely makes them a lot more exciting and now all that needs to happen is the return of Eric Abreu. I’m also excited to see how the adjustments that were made to improve Abel’s control will play out. DAY OFF and RAINOUT.
Sunk Costs by SG
Fortunately for me, I did not get to watch last night's game. I did listen to most of it on the radio, and as Kevin Brown gave another crappy performance to start the game, one thing that John Sterling said really got on my nerves:
Friday, April 22, 2005
by SG
If I had my way, every Yankee game would be like the game yesterday where they shellacked the Blue Jays 11-2. Games like that don't teach you as much about the team as games like tonight's though.
Wednesday, April 20, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/20/05 (Updated) by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. AAA Columbus (International League): Not only did Trenton win again today, but also Eric Duncan had arguably his best offensive game of the season. The 3B who has been experiencing all sorts of troubles at the plate was 2 for 5 with a strikeout (8). The first hit was a grounder up the middle and the second was a liner into CF, so hopefully this is the start of something bigger. Unfortunately, Duncan also made his 5th error of the season and 4th in his last 3 games today. Similar to last year, it seems as though the miscues will be in bunches. For some positive spin on this issue, last year he had 12 in his first 21 games, and only made 14 in his next 92 games. Hector Made had a very good game for the Tampa Yankees; the SS would collect 2 singles over the course of 4 at bats. Unfortunately, neither Rudy Guillen nor Erold Andrus was as good. Guillen’s night was the next step down as he had 1 hit in 3 at bats and Andrus was the worst of the three with no hits in his 3 at bats. A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): I had extremely high hopes for Jeff Marquez entering the ’05 season. Despite a low strikeout rate in the NYPL, I bought into the hype that his groundball tendencies would make that inconsequential and was fine with him potentially starting the year in the FSL; Marquez’s early season performance has cast the praises into doubt. For the 3rd start in a row (4th if you count the preseason game broadcast prior to opening day), Marquez was brutal. Today his final line was 3-6-6-4-3-1-0 to give him a seasonal line of 10.2-18-14-11-10-12-0. I guess the sinker is working in the sense that he’s yet to give up a homer and the strikeout rate is good, but that line is still horrendous. Thankfully, it’s only 10.2 innings and Marquez has time to turn around his season. Marcos Vechionacci was given his first day off of the season, so Irwil Rojas took up the role of best hitter on the team. Rojas was 2 for 4 with a double (3) and is looking terrific at the plate right now, if only the same could be said of his defense. Tim Battle did not get any hits, extra base variety or otherwise, but got on base via walk (6) and was 0 for 3 with a strikeout (24). Battle’s season has been very good outside the first week or so and it’s encouraging that he’s making tangible adjustments. Estee Harris was also a recipient of a no contact night; the LF finished the day 0 for 3 with a walk (4) and 2 strikeouts (13).
Minor League Notes: 4/19/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. The Trenton Thunder had an offensive outburst tonight on their way to amassing 11 runs and 10 hits. Unfortunately, Prospects Row was not really a part of that. Melky Cabrera’s recent troubles gave him the night off, prohibiting him from the festivities, while Eric Duncan continued to scuffle. Duncan, at the least, had a couple hard hit balls tonight, but still no results, as he would go 0 for 5 with a strikeout (7). Duncan’s offensive ineptitude even seems to have begun affecting him in the field as his flawless fielding early on is no longer existent, the 3B made an error to give him 4 overall and 3 in his last two games. Bronson Sardinha was the lone offensive prospect bright spot. Sardinha was 1 for 2 and gathered two walks, clearly responding to my earlier post. Bronson also made a fielding error (2), but we’ll overlook that for now. Matt DeSalvo is a pitcher often noted as lacking in big time raw “stuff”; in other words, his fastball isn’t THAT fast. As a result, he is the type of pitcher that relies on having a deep repertoire and being able to place those pitches. Tonight, Matt DeSalvo could not place his pitches and the result was ugly. DeSalvo went 3.1-9-5-4-4-1-0 for his worst start of the year. A+ Tampa (Florida State League): Tampa won a pitching duel 3-2 tonight and as would be expected, the offensive prospects played almost no real role in the game. Hector Made was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (9), Rudy Guillen was 0 for 4 with 1 strikeout (12), and Erold Andrus had the best day by going 1 for 4 with 1 strikeout (7). On the one hand, it IS the FSL and I am understanding of the difficulty of hitting there, but then again, with a bunch of Yankee prospects struggling there is more emphasis on these guys doing well in order to compensate for the rest of the farm so their “hitting” thus far has been frustrating. A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): Charleston won a slugfest by the final score of 10-7 and two of the offensive prospects shone brightly in today’s action. While Marcos Vechionacci had a forgettable play in the field and made a base running gaffe due to being overly aggressive, he was very good at the plate. Nacci went 3 for 5 to bring his average back up to .308 following a brief dry spell. Tim Battle continues to impress following a horrendous opening to the season. While Battle struck out twice today (23) he also walked (5) and hit a mammoth HR (3). The homer was over the 415 ft. sign in CF and estimated at about 420 feet. In addition, Battle has continued to put together excellent at bats lately, making me not worry as much about the strikeouts, which are down somewhat from where he started the season. Irwil Rojas was 1 for 4, but continues to worry me with his defense at C and Estee Harris was 1 for 4 with a double (1) and a strikeout (11). The only offensive prospect to not get a hit was, of course, Jon Poterson. The RF was 0 for 3 with a walk (1!!!!!!!!) and 2 strikeouts (14). Poterson’s stats also pretty much tell the story with him. Unlike Eric Duncan who has had many a solid at bat end unluckily, Poterson has just been really, really bad. Christian Garcia’s final line, 4.1-3-3-3-1-6-0, is nothing to write home about, but not nearly indicative of how good he was on this day. In what was easily the best of his 3 performances on the year, Garcia used his curveball to overwhelm Columbus batters all night long and would have had a better final line were it not for Vechionacci’s previously mentioned fielding error. While Garcia does not have an ERA nearly as flashy, he’s provided more “take notice” moments than Phil Hughes thus far.
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/17&18/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. AAA Columbus (International League): Robinson Cano opened the season with a 10-game hitting streak before having it snapped on Sunday. A big reason why that hitting streak was snapped was that despite going to the plate 6 times, Cano only took 4 official at bats due to being intentionally walked twice (3). While it sucks that his hitting streak is over, it is impressive that opposing teams now fear Cano enough to walk him in critical situations. In Monday night’s game, Cano ended his 1 game “slump” by going 2 for 5 with 2 singles and is currently hitting .373 through his first 51 at bats of the year. Chien-Ming Wang gutted through Sunday’s game for Columbus. The 25-year-old finished the game with a line of 7-7-4-4-3-2-0, as he did not have his typical control of the pitches. This included a 3rd inning that featured some very sloppy fielding by him and his teammates. In the end Wang was able to pitch a solid game as he continues to bide his time while Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright scuffle in the majors. AA Trenton (Eastern League): Eric Duncan was 1 for 8 with a walk (8) over the course of Sunday and Monday’s games. The 3B has now been dropped down to 6th in the order after beginning the season hitting 4th, but continues to struggle to find consistency. Duncan also, shockingly, has yet to collect an extra base hit after averaging 1 every 7.8 at bats prior to this year. In addition, Duncan has only struck out 6 times, which works out to once every 6.8 at bats, after striking out once every 4 at bats prior to this year. It’s still early and Duncan’s lack of power could just be a slump, but I can’t help, but wonder whether he made a conscious effort to cut back on his swing in order to curtail strikeouts and as a result, his power has been affected. Hopefully, he breaks out soon and this will no longer be a worry. Melky Cabrera was recently able to parlay one of his customary hitting streaks into his first AA HR and XBH of his career, but has since returned to the form he showed in the earlier portion of this season. Melky went 0 for 9 over Sunday and Monday and just like that his average has dropped all the way down to .250. Due to his only having 1 walk, which was intentional, and 1 XBH, his average is more harmful than the standard .250 would be. Bronson Sardinha went 3 for 8 with a home run (1), 2 doubles (3), and 2 strikeouts (13) over the Sunday and Monday period. Sardinha has been better at the plate as of late, but surprisingly still only has 1 walk to his credit and has had strikeout issues. Despite all of the issues he has had throughout his career as far as defensive inconsistency and power production inconsistency, one thing Sardinha has typically managed to do is maintain control of the strike zone, so I wouldn’t look at this as a long term problem. Once he gets where he needs to be with that issue his average should hopefully go up and his solid power production thus far will become more evident. Steven White pitched the Sunday game and was horrendous, giving him 2 awful starts in 3 tries; White’s final line was 4.2-8-4-4-2-2-1. White has had some serious control issues in his 12.1 innings thus far as evidenced by a BB:K ratio of 7-9. With 16 hits, including 2 HRs, given up already it also seems to reason that his fastball may not be fooling many hitters either. The positive lining in all this is that White usually got better as his stints in a league went on last year and we can hope for that happening this year as well. Jeff Karstens pitched the Monday game and continues to impress in the early going. Karstens took the loss, but his defense was to blame as his final line was 6-7-5-1-0-3-0. I expected Karstens control to aid him in making the transition to AA more easily than White would, but his performance thus far has exceeded those expectations. If Monday’s game is any indication, Rudy Guillen may finally be awaking from his season long slump. The RF was 3 for 4 with a walk (3) and a strikeout (11) to bring his season average up to .220, which isn’t much in the absolute sense, but it is MUCH better than what he was doing earlier this year. Meanwhile, Erold Andrus and Hector Made continued their slumps after getting off to more promising starts than Guillen. Made was 1 for 5 and his average sits at .196 while Andrus was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (6) and is hitting .244 thus far. Tampa is the Yankee affiliate most difficult to get detailed information from/about, but at this moment I’m going to assume that Tyler Clippard left yesterday’s game after 4 innings due to reaching his pitch count rather than any sort of injury. Clippard began the game by getting strikeouts for his first 5 outs while allowing a single in between, but then seemed to run out of gas as the game went on to finish with a mediocre final line of 4-4-2-2-3-6-0. Tim Battle was only 1 for 8 with a double (3), a walk (4), and 3 strikeouts (21) between Sunday and Monday, but I have been impressed with his play of late. While he still strikes out a lot, it is not as much as he was earlier this year. In addition, while his strikeouts used to be mostly made up of at bats where he went to the plate, hacked at every pitch and then struck out swinging, some of his strikeouts of late have been due to working the count and laying off borderline pitches that don’t go his way. In addition, he has also been hitting the ball with much more authority has 6 XBH on the year. Marcos Vechionacci was 1 for 9 with 2 strikeouts (10) during the 2 games, but I have no worries about him. He has been pretty consistent all year as far as putting together solid at bats, the only difference being that sometimes the line drives fall fair and sometimes they fall foul. I’m extremely impressed with the consistency displayed in this 18-year-old’s game. Irwil Rojas has had a strange last two games as he struck out once in each game to give him 3 on the year. Rojas was 1 for 7 with a walk (5) to go along with those Ks. Rojas has been similar to Vechionacci thus far in terms of the offensive consistency when it comes to his approach. However, he does not the ball as consistently hard and has been very poor on defense; Rojas had 2 passed balls in Monday’s game and already has 5 on the year. Jon Poterson, after a brief stretch of a couple games where he was good, has gone back to sucking. The RF was 0 for 8 with a strikeout (12) between Sunday and Monday. Estee Harris was not much better on Sunday, 0 for 4 with a strikeout, but then tripled his season hits total on Monday by going 2 for 4 with a strikeout (10). OF corners usually provide a lot of a team’s offense, but thus far this has not been the case for Charleston. Brett Smith was victimized by poor defense and badly timed BABIP luck on Sunday, resulting in his worst start of the season, 5.2-8-3-3-1-8-0. Smith has still been very impressive thus far and still looks to be on course for at least a midseason promotion as opposing batters are having big problems handling his repertoire. After Monday night’s game where Phil Hughes went 4-4-2-2-1-2-0, I began contemplating Hughes’ 3 starts thus far. The one thought I could not shake was that while Hughes had the nice tidy ERA of 1.88 thus far, none of his starts had left me as impressed as I thought they would heading into this year. His curveball had shown flashes, but that had been the only really exciting thing thus far as he had relied on weak contact by opposing hitters to get outs and was lacking the strikeouts I thought he would generate with a low to mid 90s fastball. Today’s BA Daily Dish shed some light on why this might be: “The Yankees are bringing right-hander Philip Hughes along slowly, and his stuff his coming along slowly as well. Hughes, the Yanks’ first-round pick last season, picked up his first loss Monday as he gave up two runs in four innings with two strikeouts against Columbus; his fastball topped out around 90 mph. He has a 1.88 ERA through three starts and has 11 strikeouts and four walks in 14 1/3 innings”. While it’s nice to know there is a reason why Hughes hasn’t been as spectacular as expected, it does worry me that he was only throwing around 90 as that leads me to worry about injury issues…or it could just be early season rust, hopefully.
Monday, April 18, 2005
SlumpBusters™ by Larry Mahnken
Certainly George will be happy, and probably a little self-congratulatory after last night’s shellacking of the Devil Rays, but lets keep things in context:
Sunday, April 17, 2005
Enough Negativity by SG
My last two posts have been very negative, and rightfully so. The Yankees have been playing like crap. However, after reading some of the stuff that's coming out in the media today, I've gotten a bit annoyed.
John Sickels on Robinson Cano by Fabian
Sickels' take on Columbus 2B Robinson Cano. This was posted a few days ago on his website, but I havn't had time to link until now.
Saturday, April 16, 2005
Mismanagement 101 by SG
Joe Torre has gotten a lot of praise for his team's successes over the time since he came aboard in 1996. Torre has his strengths, although they would seem to be in mostly unmeasurable areas. I'm not one to discredit team chemistry and intangibles, however since they are not something we can measure I can't really assess them. It seems that Torre does a good job of managing his team's personalities, he handles the voracious New York media with aplomb, and he manages to keep George Steinbrenner off his players' backs for the most part. However, he is clearly not a good in-game tactical manager, and as the quality of the team that the front office has assembled for him deteriorates, it becomes more and more clear.
Thursday, April 14, 2005
Birthday Surprise by Larry Mahnken
At 8:04 in the morning of April 13th, 1977, in a hospital in Bay Shore, New York, I entered this world. Since I was born, the Yankees have gone 2484-1926 (a .563 Pct., or 91-win pace), they’ve won 12 division titles, made the playoffs 14 times, won nine pennants and six World Championships. And they’ve gone 16-10 on my birthday, which is an even better winning percentage. Now I’ve been a Yankees fan for as long as I can remember, but I didn’t become a hardcore, watch or listen to every game, thrill over every victory/agonize over every defeat kind of fan until May 27th, 1991, when Mel Hall hit a 3-run home run off of Jeff Reardon to beat the Red Sox 6-5 (after trailing 5-0). Since that day, the team has gone 1258-907 (.581, 94-win pace), but frustratingly, only 4-6 on my birthdays heading into last night’s game. They hadn’t played the Red Sox on my birthday until 2001. In that game the Yankees had been shut down by Paxton Crawford and Boston’s middle relief, and had relied on strong performances by Orlando Hernandez, Ramiro Mendoza and Mike Stanton to get the game to the ninth tied at 1. In the ninth they put a run across on Derek Lowe, and in came Mariano Rivera to close it in the bottom of the inning. But he couldn’t get the job done, and a Manny Ramirez base hit won the game for Boston 3-2, which totally ruined my birthday. A year later they met again in a faceoff between David Wells and Pedro Martinez. The Yankees scored four off of Pedro in the first inning, and were holding onto a 6-3 lead in the eighth, when Wells started to lose it, and Mariano Rivera came in and gave up a game-winning, 2-run homer to Shea Hillenbrand, and the Sox won again, 7-6. Another birthday ruined, this time exacerbated by the fact that I had to watch it with my Sox-fan friend and roommate. So two Yankees/Sox games on my birthday, two Yankee losses, and with Curt Schilling facing Jaret Wright this time around, the prospects of that trend reversing itself wasn’t promising. The relocation of Tony Womack to the leadoff spot didn’t help that impression. Of course there are no sure things in baseball, and some good luck kept the Yankees in the game early while Wright was struggling and Schilling was dealing. A close play at first in the third held the Red Sox to one run after they’d loaded the bases with one out, and in the fifth inning the Yankees were able to push across a couple of runs. Trot Nixon immediately tied it with a homer in the bottom of the inning, but the Yankees responded in the top of the sixth with homers by Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams off a tired Schilling. From there on the Yankees were in control, Tanyon Sturtze and Tom Gordon shut Boston down through the eighth, and Rivera came in to a standing ovation from the Fenway crowd, and pitched an effective ninth for his second save and the Yankees’ fourth win. It was a good win and a strong showing from a team that’s been struggling, but I’m still just as concerned about them as I was 24 hours ago. I’m still worried about Bernie, I’m concerned that Womack was stuck at the top of the order, and I’m sickened by their defense. Wright didn’t inspire any confidence with his 4-walk performance, where he threw 49 strikes and 48 balls. Rivera got the job done but wasn’t at his best (half his pitches were out of the strike zone again). So while beating the Sox always feels good, and they got an unexpected win they really needed right now, it doesn’t cure all ailments. But at least I got a nice present, the first Yankees win on my birthday since 2000.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/13/05 by Fabian
Note: Park Factors are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and “they are actually adjustments for teams, based on their own mix of home and road parks…relative to the league”. Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point of the season and counted across levels. A pitcher’s line consists of IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR. AAA Columbus (International League): Park Factor: .989 Record: 4-3 On the day Tony Womack was named the Yankee leadoff hitter, thereby sounding the alarm that a new 2B is going to be needed in the Bronx, Robinson Cano went 2 for 5 with 2 singles and a strikeout (6). Cano has either had 2 hits or at least one extra base hit in all, but one game this season. In addition, my nagging has gotten John Sickels to agree to do a full write-up on Cano and as soon as that becomes publicly available, I will point you towards it. AA Trenton (Eastern League): Park Factor: .986 Record: 2-4 Report to be posted later. A+ Tampa (Florida State League): Park Factor: .979 Record: 1-5 Report to be posted later. A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): Park Factor: .966 Record: 5-2 The Charleston Riverdogs were able to pick up an exciting extra innings victory today and Marcos Vechionacci scored the tying run in the 9th and the go-ahead run in the 11th. Nacci was on base to score the tying run by virtue of a HBP and was put back on in the 11th when he easily coaxed a walk (3) out of the opposition’s pitcher on 4 tosses. Outside of those two plate appearances this game was not a great one for the 18-year-old; he was 0 for 3 in the rest of his times up with a strikeout (7) and made an error (2) on a routine play in the 11th as he lost the ball while transferring from glove to hand. Coming off a game in which he hit his first long ball of the season, Tim Battle had some hacktastic at bats where he took mammoth cuts and at the end of the game what he had to show for it was an 0 for 4 with a walk (2), 2 strikeouts (14), a near extra base hit down the line and a fly out to the warning track in RF. Jon Poterson built on his multi-hit game with another multi-hit game. This time around the RF was 2 for 4 with 2 singles, one was a blooper the other a hard hit ball, a strikeout (8), and a GIDP. In general, Poterson did a better job working the count and had quality at bats. Estee Harris did not start, due to a combination of poor on-field results and being HBP late in yesterday’s game, and neither did Irwil Rojas, who was just getting some recovery time since the game started at 10:30 AM EST, around 12 hours after last night’s game ended, but both entered the game late. Harris only got work in as a pinch-runner while Rojas was able to get an at bat that ended in a weak chopper for an out, but was nonetheless a typical Rojas quality at bat where he made the opposing pitcher work. On the mound for Charleston was Phil Hughes. Hughes started the game by allowing a leadoff double, but from that point attempted his best Brett Smith impression as he would retire the next 12 batters in a row and do so in dominant fashion. However, when it looked like Hughes was about to make quick work of the opposition in the 6th inning his defense failed him, committing an error and things began to fall apart as he allowed a deep sac fly, a single, and then a walk though the walk was on a borderline pitch. I’m not sure whether Hughes came apart a little bit because of emotions from the botched play or tiredness, but the game would have left a better feeling on me had he finished as strongly as he did in his first start of the year. Hughes’ final line was 5.2-3-2-0-2-3-0 and he was excelled at having the opposition put the ball into play weakly today. The most impressive aspect of the game was the effectiveness of his curveball as there were plenty of swings and misses on the pitch, which is especially encouraging since he’s only really begun throwing it after being drafted last summer.
Tuesday, April 12, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/12/05 by Fabian
Note: Numbers in parentheses are hitters’ totals in the respective category at this point in the season. AAA Columbus (International League): Robinson Cano continued his rampage on International League pitching tonight. The 22-year-old 2B was 2 for 5 with a double (3), a triple (1), and a strikeout (5). While I’m normally a stickler for walks, I have no qualms about Cano only having 1 of those thus far as he seems to be hitting everything hard right now and once he cools down I expect a more patient approach, leading to more walks, will emerge. Chien-Ming Wang was dominant in his second start of the season for Columbus. The injury insurance for the Yankee rotation went 7-2-0-0-1-6-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR) and was in complete control against the B.J. Upton-led Durham Bulls. AA Trenton (Eastern League): Steven White was much improved in his second start at the AA. The right-hander with the impressive fastball did a much better job of keeping his pitches in the strike zone and as a result was able to go deeper in the game, but was unable to pick up a victory due to the thus far disappointing Trenton “offense”. White’s final line of 6-3-2-1-1-3-0 was only missing the strikeouts I covet in top pitching prospects’ statistics. Prospects’ Row was a big part of the poor Trenton offensive showing. Melky Cabrera had the best night of the 3 as he went 1 for 4 with a single and extended his empty hitting streak. Bronson Sardinha was also 1 for 4, but threw in 2 strikeouts (6) for good measure. Eric Duncan was 0 for 3 and also with strikeout (4), but he also ended the game with a very good at bat where he walked (5). I’m frustrated by the early season performances of all 3 guys, but not worried about any of them, yet. A+ Tampa (Florida State League): Hector Made had a decent game from the leadoff spot in the Tampa lineup; the SS was 1 for 4 with a single and a walk (2). Made is the prime example of why early season stats are so fluky. One bad game turned an excellent start into a poor one and this decent game has brought him back to decency. Erold Andrus was the brightest spot on the Tampa team for this day; the LF went 1 for 3 with a home run (1), 2 walks (3), and a strikeout (3). Andrus has been solid thus far. Rudy Guillen…has been far from solid, but it’s too early to give up. The RF was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (8), and has not had a hit since his opening day double. Tyler Clippard followed up an excellent opening day start with a very mediocre second one. T-Clip gave up a career high 3 home runs and had an overall line of 6-5-4-4-2-3-3. I’m very high on Clippard and doubt that there will be many, if any, more games like this while he is in the FSL, especially at Tampa. A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): Brett Smith followed up a dominant opening day start with another dominant effort. The right-hander nearly pitched a complete game shutout despite working on a pitch count, but instead had to settle for 8-4-0-0-1-5-0. Smith was considered a good college pick by any and has thus far been making SAL hitters look silly. At no point did any of the hitters from the Columbus squad, of the extremely good Dodgers organization, pose a serious threat. While Smith was dominant on one side of the ball, Marcos Vechionacci took care of business on the other side. The SS has broken out of his early season doldrums and following a 3 for 4 night with 2 doubles (3) and a walk (2) his overall numbers to date look solid for an 18-year-old in full season baseball though they are not at the Delmon Young/B.J. Upton level…yet. Tim Battle hit a wind aided blast to the opposite field for his first home run of the season, but still managed an uninspiring night at the plate as he was 0 for his 4 at bats outside of that one and struck out twice more (12). Jon Poterson displayed signs of life in his first 2 at bats getting a single for his first hit of the year and a double for his first extra base hit of the year and then struck out in his next two at bats. To be fair to him, his 3rd at bat was pretty good as he ran the count full and fouled off some pitches until he got caught chasing a high fastball. Estee Harris was 0 for 3 with a strikeout (8) and HBP and has no hits outside of a mammoth home run. Irwil Rojas went 1 for 3 with his customary single while shockingly managing not to get HBP or draw a walk.
Monday, April 11, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/11/05 by Fabian
Venting (SG) Robinson Cano extended his season-opening hit streak to 5 games by doubling in his final at bat as he would end the day 1 for 4 with that hit. The double was Cano’s 2nd of the season and he now has 5 extra base hits total as he continues to flash somewhat surprising power. AA Trenton (Eastern League): Sean Henn opened his second AA season with a very good start, as his final line for the day was 6-5-0-0-1-6-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR). While I am down on Henn due to his ’04 season, he’s actually not much off from where Chien-Ming Wang was at this point last year, in terms of being a pitcher who’s results aren’t living up to his stuff, and I’m somewhat high on Wang at this moment so there is definitely still hope for the left-hander. Melky Cabrera did not have a stand out game, grounding out twice and also striking out, but was still able to extend his hit streak by picking up a single. Unfortunately his multi-hit game hit streak ended and he’s still looking for his first extra base hit. Bronson Sardinha has already had his first extra base hit, but has still been less than stellar out of the gate. The RF was 1 for 4 with a strikeout and has only had 3 hits in his first 16 at bats of the year. Eric Duncan is in search of any sort of offensive consistency with respect to base hits. He, shockingly, has not had an extra base hit yet and only has 3 hits in 20 at bats thus far after an 0 for 3 night. On a positive note he has managed 4 walks against just 3 strikeouts, and generally has put together excellent at bats so I remain hopeful that a breakout is coming soon. A+ Tampa (Florida State League): Tampa had a horrendous defensive game, committing 5 errors, and was not much better offensively as they could only generate 1 run on 4 hits. It was a dismal night that saw every prospect in the lineup held helpless as Hector Made, Rudy Guillen, and Erold Andrus were a combined 0 for 10 with 3 strikeouts. The night turned Made’s hot start into a cold one and extended the early season futility being experienced by Guillen and Andrus. A- Charleston (South Atlantic League): Tim Battle had a decent game from the leadoff spot as he was 1 for 3 with a sac bunt and the customary strikeout and provided some of the positive prospect news from this club. The other contributor at the top of the lineup was Marcos Vechionacci, who seems to be on the right track after a slow start. After getting a double in yesterday’s game he was able to collect 2 hits in this game. Jon Poterson was given the night off, no doubt as a result of his early season struggles, and Estee Harris is having a start about as futile as the one he experienced with Battle Creek last year. The LF was 0 for 4 with 1 strikeout though he did manage to hit the ball solidly in his final plate appearance. Lastly, Irwil Rojas continues to impress me, as he was 1 for 2 with a walk.
Venting by SG
Granted, it's way too early to start panicking yet, but there are some troubling things already apparent on the 2005 Yankees. Most sabermetrically aware fans are aware of the litany of missteps that were undertaken in building this team, but it's worth re-hashing with the way they've stunk it up over the last five games.
by Larry Mahnken
On the one hand, six games is about 50 games too early to do any bridge-jumping, and even then a .500 record is nothing to despair about. Losing three of the last four is hardly the problem, it's what's been happening in those four games that gives cause for concern.
Sunday, April 10, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/10/05 by Fabian
Columbus: Columbus exploded for 13 runs and 12 hits today, but, shockingly, Robinson Cano did not factor into the run scoring much. The 2B who has started the year on a tear was a mere 1 for 4 with a single as he let his teammates have the spotlight on this day. Trenton: Trenton lost in extra innings, but Melky Cabrera really seems to be warming up. The CF had his 3rd consecutive multi-hit game, as he was 2 for 6 with 2 singles and a strikeout. The only thing differentiating this streak from some of the ones he went on his breakout year last season is the lack of doubles or some other form of extra base hit though Melky is hitting the ball very solidly. Eric Duncan, on the other hand, is still struggling a bit at the plate, but the opposition continues to respect his bat as he drew another intentional walk today and overall was 1 for 5 with a single and that walk. Tampa: Hector Made had another productive game today, as he was 1 for 4 with a single while picking up his 1st walk of the season. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Made’s walk total since he is a hitter that walked a good bit prior to playing for Battle Creek last season and it was not until late in ’04 that that ability reappeared for him. If he can maintain the control of the strike zone that he did late in ’04 I’d be more confident about his chances for a successful season in the very tough FSL. Erold Andrus and Rudy Guillen have not had as much early success as Made. Andrus is hitting for average and continued to do so today, 1 for 3 with a single and a HBP, while Guillen is not doing much of anything, going 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout. Charleston: Jeff Marquez had a performance similar to Christian Garcia’s on the previous day. On the one hand you saw the potential as hitters grounded the ball off of home plate and weakly to infielders or in the stretch where he struck out 3 of 4 hitters, utilizing a mid 70s curveball and the weak contact made on low 90s fastballs. On the other hand you saw the not so great side as groundballs got through the infield and balls left up were hit to the OF. Marquez could/should be a quick mover, but I’m not confident he’ll put up the prettiest numbers while doing so because of the role defense plays in his game. Marquez left the game with a line of 4-8-3-3-2-4-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR). Tim Battle, despite drawing a walk, is as lost as ever at the plate. The plate appearance that ended in a walk was one where the manager must have told Battle he’s not allowed to swing as he laid off of 5 pitches before going to 1B, unfortunately, as soon as he got there he was caught leaning towards 2B and easily picked off. His next time up, Battle promptly struck out by swinging and missing on the first 3 pitches he saw, for the day Battle was 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout. Estee Harris was not able to build on the home run he hit in the previous day’s game, but did manage to match the 2 strikeouts from that game as the talented, but contact challenged LF was 0 for 3 with 2 strikeouts. Harris works deep counts, which is usually good, but instead a feeling of hope that he may tire the pitcher out and drive the ball the feeling is that he is about to strike out at any moment. Marcos Vechionacci had his best game of the season, which is not saying much. The young SS was 1 for 4 with a strikeout and a double as he continues to try and find his way offensively. Jon Poterson was 0 for 3 with a strikeout and continues to have at bats unbecoming of the man who many feel has the organization’s best power potential. Irwil Rojas was 1 for 2 with a HBP as he continues to get on base by any means necessary. Rojas is quickly becoming one of my favorite prospects as he has a very sound approach at the plate, making contact and working the count. He’s had some rough moments behind the plate thus far though and does not have much power.
Minor League Notes: 4/9/05 by Fabian
Columbus: In the past I have consistently expressed confidence in Robinson Cano’s ability to hit for average while expressing doubt in exactly how much power he would develop, especially in comparison to early scout predictions of possible 30 home run seasons. It appears that in ’05 Cano has discovered his power stroke as he went 2 for 4 with a home run, a single, and a strikeout. The home run is Cano’s 3rd of the season in just 3 games and 13 at bats; Tony Womack, I hope you hear the footsteps. Ramon Ramirez was on the mound for Columbus and had the best AAA start of his career as he went 7-4-1-1-0-6-0; numbers I believe he was fully capable of putting up had he been healthy while he was at AAA last year. Trenton: Matt DeSalvo, my 2nd favorite pitching prospect in the Yankee organization, had a dominant first start of the season for Trenton. The smallish right-hander put up a line of 6-3-1-1-3-9-1 as Erie hitters were helpless against his change-up. DeSalvo was able to set hitters up with the array of pitches from his arsenal, toss a well placed fastball, and then catch hitters off balance with a change-up for the strikeout. Acknowledging that DeSalvo does not have the best stuff or isn’t the most physical guy, I still find it incredible he could have gone undrafted, I’m willing to bet more than a few minor league hitters would agree. The bookends of Trenton’s Prospect Row continue to struggle with base hits in the early going. Bronson Sardinha was 1 for 3 with a single and a HBP, but does not seem to be locked in at the plate yet and Eric Duncan was 0 for 3 with an intentional walk. It is a credit to Duncan’s prowess as a hitter that opponents will intentionally walk him though he has not gotten much in the way of results at the plate thus far. Melky Cabrera, hitting between the two, seems to be on track; he was 2 for 4 for with 2 solid singles and has now had back-to-back multi hit games. It shouldn’t be much longer before the doubles start dropping in. Tampa: Hector Made is off to a much quicker start than I anticipated; the SS had his second consecutive multi-hit game, this time he was 2 for 4 with a single and a double. That leaves Made 4 for his first 13 with two extra base hits. Neither Erold Andrus nor Rudy Guillen were able to get a hit though as both OF were 0 for 3 with a walk, which is nice, Andrus also struck out once. Charleston: Christian Garcia took the mound for the Riverdogs and they were handed their first loss of the season as the game highlighted the best of Garcia and the worst of Garcia. The worst was immediately visible as he allowed a leadoff walk, a misplayed bunt base hit, and another walk to load the bases. He then proceeded to easily strike out the side with an array of mid 90s fastballs and hard curveballs. Garcia’s final line ended up being 3-4-3-1-4-4-0 and this start just affirmed that while he has tremendous talent, possibly more raw talent than Phil Hughes, he will be quite the project, definitely more so than Phil Hughes.
Friday, April 08, 2005
Minor League Notes: 4/8/05 (Updated) by Fabian
Columbus: Robinson Cano continued his hot start to the season. Following a Spring Training where he admittedly did not do anything overly impressive on offense other than hit some singles; Cano has discovered his power stroke. In Columbus’ second game of the year he was 1 for 4 with a double and a strikeout giving him 3 extra base hits in his first 2 games. Trenton: Jeff Karstens, one of the more unheralded pitching prospects in the Yankee system was very good in his AA debut. Karstens, a known control artist, began the game battling his control, but was able to work out of a 2 on no out jam and pitch to a promising line of 5-3-0-0-2-6-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR). The most encouraging aspect of his line was that he was able to go as deep in the game as he did on a 75 pitch limit. Karstens may lack the physical ceiling of Steve White, but similar to Matt DeSalvo, he is a candidate to move faster due to being more polished. The Trenton offensive prospects did not do much on this night. Bronson Sardinha was 0 for 4 with a walk and a strikeout, but managed not to make an error, so there’s that. Melky Cabrera was able to relax and work the count in his first at bat as he lined the 6th pitch of his at bat up the middle for a single, the harbinger of a solid night; he finished the game 2 for 5. Eric Duncan was 0 for 4 with a walk and a strikeout. Now all he needs to do is get an extra base hit and he’s shown all of his primary offensive skill set. Tampa: Hector Made followed up a quiet opening night with a loud second day of the season. The 20-year-old SS was 3 for 4 with a single, a double, and a triple. Rudy Guillen seems to be off to a good start as far as power; he hit his first home run of the season in going 1 for 4 with 2 strikeouts. I wouldn’t expect standout numbers from either of these guys being that they are playing in the FSL, but if Made can hit for average and Guillen could rack up XBH, not necessarily HR, their campaigns should be considered a success (Late edit: Rudy Guillen was actually 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts last night; the home run initially credited to him was actually Matt Carson's. In addition, Hector Made was actually only 2 for 4 with a triple and a single, I'd like to thank MinorLeagueBaseball.com for the confusion. Lastly, some pitcher with the last name Abreu pitched last night, 1-3-3-2-0-1-0, no word yet on whether it was Eric, but I doubt it was). Erold Andrus, by comparison, had a quiet night as he went 1 for 4 with a single and 2 strikeouts. Charleston: In his first start of the year, Phil Hughes was very promising. While he did not throw as many strikes, in the umpires view, as I thought he would, he was still consistently around the strike zone; many of his misses were near misses that could have gone either way. In addition, outside of a troublesome stretch from the 3rd inning to the middle of the 4th he was dominant. Hughes ended the game throwing harder than he opened it, according to the announcers, and easily struck out the last 3 batters he faced for a final line of 4.2-5-2-2-1-6-0. Irwil Rojas had a productive day at the plate despite not getting a hit; the C was 0 for 1 with a walk and a HBP. Despite his offensive productivity, Rojas had a poor day behind the plate as he had two errant throws to the 2B end up in CF, the first of which directly led to a run scoring on Phil Hughes. Estee Harris was 0 for 4 with a strikeout and Jon Poterson was 0 for 3 with a strikeout as both power-hitting strikeout prone players continue to look for their first official base hit of ’05.
Minor League Notes: Opening Night by Fabian
Columbus: Robinson Cano was 2 for 5 with 2 home runs and 2 strikeouts as he begins his quest to force the Yankee organization’s hand in promoting him. One homer was to left-center and the other was a straightaway shot. Chien-Ming Wang had a very middling performance. He walked a man and then gave up a home run in the 1st inning, but managed to pick up the victory by settling down. All told he went 6-6-4-4-1-5-2 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-SO-HR). The line seems similar to what he did in his first AAA start last year, so we all know he’s about go on a run of dominance. Trenton: Steven White was terrible in his AA debut. He threw fastballs on the first 8 pitches of the game and all told he used his fastball about 80% of the time, though he did not have much control of the pitch. His curveball was worse though and it seemed to land in the dirt on about every try and since White does not use his change-up much, if ever, at this point, the Erie hitters were able to sit fastball. It’s a testament to the quality of that pitch that the Erie hitters did not have a complete field day, often having to foul off or miss on a couple pitches before driving the ball fair. The final line was 1.2-4-6-6-4-4-1. Eric Duncan was 2 for 5 with 2 singles and a strikeout. Duncan displayed his customary terrific approach, as he worked the count. The highlight for him was, surprisingly, in the field. As I’ve mentioned in the past, the scouting consensus is that Duncan’s arm only plays at about average from 3B due to a hitch in his throwing motion that had not been fixed. If last night’s game was any indication, that hitch may have been fixed as the announcers had no qualms raving about Duncan’s arm…or it could just be homer-ism, we shall see. Duncan’s plate approach was in direct contrast to the hitter in front of him in the lineup, Melky Cabrera. Other than one loud lineout to near the CF warning track, Melky appeared lost. He was not able to parlay a hot spring training finish into a productive opening night, as he was 0 for 4 with a HBP and 2 strikeouts, the product of seemingly swinging at every pitch. Bronson Sardinha started the game off in spectacular fashion as he lined the first pitch he saw down the right field line for a triple. After that, his night was not so memorable. From there he would go 0 for 3, striking out once, and…(drum roll please)…making a 3 run error in RF to blow the game open. Tampa: Tyler Clippard was Tyler Clippard in his FSL debut. The lanky right-hander put up a line of 6-4-0-0-1-6-0. One start does not a season make, but I feel pretty confident that Clippard will enjoy his time in the FSL and that he won’t be there all year. Erold Andrus, playing LF in a surprise move, was 2 for 4 with 2 singles. I’m encouraged to see that the switch to 1B hasn’t taken place yet, at least not permanently, and though I’d prefer it were he a CF, just being in the OF will do for now. Rudy Guillen showed some pop in his first game in his return FSL campaign. The RF was 1 for 3 with a double, a HBP, and 2 strikeouts. With the Yankee organization deciding that it would actually be a better idea for Guillen to prove himself at High A he’s going to have to put together a very good campaign to be promoted. Hector Made had a poor A+ debut going 0 for 5 with a strikeout. Charleston: Brett Smith authored a dominant pitching performance for the Charleston Riverdogs, which should be the case with this team 4 out of 5 games. The ’04 college draftee made his ’04 debut by going 4.1-2-1-1-2-7-0. This was an impressive showing following a disappointing instructional league and spring training, which caused the right-hander to go from probable starter for Trenton or Tampa to head of the Charleston rotation. Smith, like most other Yankee pitching prospects at the moment, was on a strict pitch count so he was not able to rack up gaudier totals. Despite scoring 5 runs, none of the Riverdog hitters had a good night as their offense was more a result of taking advantage of the opposition’s poor showing in the field. Tim Battle was 1 for 4 with 2 strikeouts and a stolen base. Marcos Vechionacci was 0 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout; he worked the count well, but was not able to get any results. C Irwil Rojas was 1 for 3 with a single and a walk. Estee Harris was 0 for 4 with a strikeout, a stolen base, and a caught stealing as he hit the ball hard on this night. Jon Poterson was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts (no snide comments…yet).
Hardball Times - The Devil's Advocate: All-Star Lineup by Sean McNally
Larry's got a new column... I guess some of you might want to read it or something.
Thursday, April 07, 2005
#1 by Fabian
Well, that sucked (SG) Duncan’s MWL stint started off solidly at the plate and only got better until about the 1st of June. At that point he was hitting for average, taking walks, showing power and not striking out excessively. However, during that month, Duncan experienced the worst slump of his professional career and the result was that while his power and walking were able to maintain some level of consistency, his AVG had taken a huge hit and was spiraling downwards. Once the dust cleared the Yankees promoted the 3B to the FSL. At the time I was not the biggest fan of the move because I felt the Yankees should have waited for him to get hot before promoting him. In addition, I also felt that such a promotion meant a trade was imminent and as I had been growing attached to Duncan I did not approve of this. The 3B was able to overcome a seemingly hasty FSL promotion by maintaining his performance from the MWL and is now amongst the game’s better prospects. Overall, I am supremely confident in Duncan’s ability to be at least an average offensive contributor due to his combination of power and patience. The primary risk with his offense is that the strikeouts are somewhat disconcerting, though it is nice that he cut back on them following a promotion, and as scary as it may seem, strikeouts are sometimes a portent of even greater power to come according to research done by Baseball Prospectus. The secondary risk is that if Duncan is truly only a .260 or so hitter, his ceiling is obviously more limited than if his true BA ability were much higher. At this point I would say Duncan should be expected to be about a .280 hitter in the bigs, though I reserve the right to adjust this estimation.
#2 by Fabian
Well, that sucked (SG) Robinson Cano, 2B, 22 Coming into the 2004 season, I did not think highly enough of Cano to rank him amongst the top 10 Yankee prospects, which Baseball America did. While I liked that he hit for average and played, reportedly, good defense, I saw too little power and/or patience to be truly interested and longed for Cano to at least return to his ’02 offensive level, where he at least displayed good pop. The lefty 2B ended up making a larger leap forward than I could have ever dreamed. While I have long had concerns with Cano’s low BB rate, his K rate was never really an issue since he was the type of hitter that swung at everything and hit most things. The greatest change to this approach in ’04 was that Cano began swinging less and waiting more while maintaining his contact skills, the result was the best season of his career. While early BA reports pegged Cano as a poor man’s version of Soriano, capable of 30 home runs in his peak, his statistical performance has altered this outlook. Cano walks more than Soriano did and strikes out less. This leads me to have more faith in Cano’s ability to consistently hit for average, and he looks like a future .285-.300 big league hitter, while forcing me to doubt his ever hitting as many as 30 home runs in a season. According to some statistical work done by Baseball Prospectus, players with higher strikeout rates in the minors tend to develop more power. With this in mind, I see Cano’s home run ceiling as 25 with about 15-20 as the expected seasonal total. Another difference between Cano and Soriano is that while Soriano is a prolific base stealer, Cano does not have that ability or natural speed so don’t expect too much excitement out of him on the base paths. My personal anger about the Tony Womack signing was due to both Womack’s demonstrated career ineptitude combined with my belief that Cano is ready for the big leagues. I think Cano would prove at least a similar defensive player to Womack, a poor fielding SS who was solid at 2B last year, in addition to providing around the same offense with potential for more. Though Cano struggled after his promotion to AAA, posting a .259 average and .403 slugging percentage, he hit better down the stretch and into the playoffs in addition to hitting well in the Dominican Winter League. At this point, my sole offensive concern would be that he might require protection from LHP to begin his big league career as he managed only 8 extra base hits against them in 109 at bats between AA and AAA this year, as opposed to 44 in 399 at bats against RHP. That in mind, Miguel Cairo would have been great to have on hand for this job, but hopefully, Andy Phillips will be able to provide this service and Cano will make the service at least a consideration by beating out Tony Womack for the 2B job in spring training. While not a player with an outstanding ceiling, Cano looks to be a very good big leaguer in his prime with prime years in the .290/.350/.470 (AVG/OBP/SLG) range. Hopefully, for the sake of Yankee fans who lack the need to see Tony Womack perform poorly some more, the journey towards that ceiling begins in ’05.
#3 by Fabian
Well, that sucked (SG) Making his stateside debut in ’04, this switch-hitting Venezuelan quickly became my favorite prospect. The first thing that caught my attention was how young he was, 17, when the Yankees decided to use him for a game in the FSL due to fallout from a brawl. While being used for one game may not be a big deal, this instance was different as I found it interesting the Yankees would choose to use someone so young for the job. A short amount of research later I became enamored with Nacci as I found out that he hit for average, showed some pop, walked a good amount, and struck out infrequently in the ’03 DSL. In my brief experience with the Yankee program down there I had not seen anyone combine those attributes so well and to make it more perfect, it was done by someone a year younger than ideal for the level. At this point in his extremely young career, the thing that stands out the most about Nacci is his mature approach at the plate. In ’04, his GCL walk total was only solid, but this is probably more a result of him swinging more often as he was given more pitches he could easily handle, which the above .900 OPS would agree with. For the month that he spent in the NYPL, Nacci was able to amass an impressive 11 walks in 72 at bats while only striking out 13 times. This was not a case of a player benefiting from pitchers who had idea where the strike zone was either. Rather, Nacci would come to the plate and wait for his pitch, not just a strike, but also one he could handle reasonably well and then let loose a line drive swing. At 17 years old he, subjectively, looked like the best hitter on the team, and statistically was just about the most productive. Overall, he did find playing in a league against college draftees more difficult as he could only muster a .361 slugging percentage. In addition to being a great asset at the plate, Nacci can also get the job done in the field and on the base paths. While not blessed with blazing, or even great, speed, Nacci is somewhat aggressive on the base paths, which allowed him to run up a 5 stolen base to 3 caught stealing total in 131 GCL at bats this past year. While Nacci is slated to open the ’05 season as the SS for the Charleston minor league club, don’t expect him to stay there for his career; he played all around the infield in ’04 (37 games at 3B, 9 at SS, 7 at 2B) and projects as a 3B down the line. Regardless, he is ahead of the game in this department as well since he seems much more sure handed than the typical player his age. Vechionacci will start next year in Low A and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him end the year in High A due to putting together a great season. More likely, he spends the entire year at Low A and has a solid season as he is already well ahead of schedule. Normally, I would voice concerns I have about his transition to full season baseball, but unless he tires, I have none. He has the type of mature approach that should allow him to adjust quickly and he has yet to demonstrate significant weakness against either RH or LH pitching. The message in all this is that the Yankees have a hugely talented all around player on their hands, and hopefully, they don’t screw this up because he has the look of a “special” player, though it is still way too early to know for sure.
#4 by Fabian
Well, that sucked (SG) While many scouts doubt Melky’s ability to stay in CF, citing average current defensive ability with a high likelihood of that declining, as he gets bigger, I do not…to an extent. If Melky Cabrera stays a Yankee, he probably stays a CF, if he’s traded it remains to be seen. The Yankee organization has run Bernie Williams out there as a regular CF since ’02 without much hesitation, I doubt that they will be scared by Melky’s defense. Because of this, Melky’s offensive value to the Yankees is increased, making him more valuable as a Yankee prospect than he would be in other organizations. Melky is somewhat of a unique case in that despite being only 20-years-old and about to enter his first season above A-ball, there are little doubts about his offensive ability. In 4 minor league stops, Melky has posted BA of .335, .283, .333, and .288 (DSL, NYPL, MWL, and FSL respectively); so from a statistical point of view, it is hard to doubt his ability for average. The scouting angle upholds this view and provides little doubt that any less should be expected of this aspect of his offensive game as he is recognized as one of the better breaking ball hitters around. That is the pitch type that has provided the immovable obstacle for many a hot shot hitting prospect and it is reassuring to know that it should not be a problem for this hitter. While Cabrera’s BA ability is excellent and his OBP ability is solid, the lone question one could ask concerning his offensive game is about his power. Until the final 2 months of the ’04 season, Melky excelled at hitting line drives into the gaps, but struggled with consistently lofting the ball over the fence. Then once he hit his first FSL home run, and first of the ’04 season, the HRs seemed to come easier as he would go on to knock 8 over the season’s final two months, a very impressive total for the FSL. It is commonly accepted that power is the last tool to develop and looking at Melky’s track record, it would appear that tool has arrived. If the power he displayed in July and August is in fact here to say, he is a very exciting prospect; the .300 BA is almost guaranteed, the defense should be solid, the OBP should be good, long-term, and he should be a suitable replacement for Bernie in the Yankee CF lineage.
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
#5 by Fabian
Well, that sucked (SG) Tyler Clippard was a product of the New York Yankees, thus far, solid 2003 draft. Picked in the 9th round from a Florida high school, Clippard did not come with too much hype, but has thus far outperformed fellow HS RHP and ’03 draftee, Jason Stephens, who drew draft-day Mark Prior comparisons from Yankee officials. From his first start as a member of the ’03 GCL Yankees through his last start this past season for the Battle Creek Yankees, the easiest thing to note about Clippard is his impeccable control. After posting an incredible 11.2 K:BB ratio in R ball Clippard followed up with an impressive 4.5 in Low A. Interestingly enough, though Clippard only walked 32 men in 149 innings, he also hit 15 batters in that period of time. Perhaps that is nothing more than a statistical anomaly, but the number of hit batters seems a bit disproportionate for someone with such excellent control and it may be the sign of a pitcher who is unafraid of challenging batters and coming inside, which is always nice. In addition to having great control, Clippard also utilized his fastball/curveball combo to register ground out after ground out. A relatively high hit-rate, one of the knocks against the RHP, may be the product of the large amount of groundballs he generates causing trouble for the erratic IF that played behind him. Despite being a groundball pitcher, Clippard displayed a somewhat significant home/road split. In 9 games and 49.2 innings pitched at home, opponents hit .262 with a .401 slugging percentage against the righty. In 17 games and 99.1 innings pitched on the road, opponents hit .251 with a .347 slugging percentage against T-Clip. This may be testament to the difference in the quality of various minor league playing fields, or a sign of BC not being as conducive to pitching this past year because, in addition, Clippard’s K-rate was significantly higher on the road, 9.7 per 9 road innings compared to 6.9 per 9 home innings. More noteworthy than his home/road split, was the huge difference in Clippard’s performance versus RHB from his performance versus LHB. Lefties facing Clippard had just about no chance, think Enrique Wilson, then imagine he struck out almost uncontrollably. Meanwhile, RHB had a field day as Clippard allowed them to have an OPS in the .800 area. This huge difference in outcomes is likely the result of the type of pitcher Clippard is right now more than anything else. Without a better fastball, RHB can just sit on Clippard’s other pitches and hit them comfortably, whereas LHB have more trouble handling a solid curveball/change up combination. Hopefully, the continued development of Clippard’s fastball, which is now a consistent 88-92 with a max of 94, will force RHB to cease sitting on his out pitch, the curveball. Further development with his changeup would also be useful in offsetting this problem. Heading into ’05 as the likely ace of the Tampa Yankees rotation Clippard has a good shot of ending the year at AA Trenton, assuming he adjusts to the FSL as quickly as he did to the MWL. If that happens, look for his name to begin to come up a lot around the trade deadline as his results have thus far been great and his arsenal is developing rapidly. While Clippard does not knock look to have ace potential, he does seem to have all the tools to become a good middle of the rotation starter on a serious contender. Next prospect: Position player
#6 by Fabian
Well, that sucked (SG) Abel Gomez was on my Yankee prospect radar when I compiled an organizational depth chart before the ’04 season. However, he did not make my list of top 10 prospects for the system for a couple reasons. The first was that while I loved that he struck out 43 men in 38 innings and only gave up 19 hits and 1 home run, I was worried about the 26 walks. This made me question how long his effectiveness would last as well as whether or not the Yankees would even promote him from the GCL. In addition, I had no idea what kind of physical tools he had to do what he was doing. So, playing it somewhat conservatively I decided to just leave Abel Gomez as someone for the backburner. During the ’04 season he was able to continue his solid performance and close the gap between him and ’03 GCL teammate Tyler Clippard, who did make my list last year. Gomez’s main weapon, and some would say his only weapon, is a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95 on occasion. While this is a terrific weapon for any left-handed pitcher to possess, the problem is that Gomez’s control of the pitch is spotty at best. In addition, his curveball and change up are not legitimate pitches at this point. Gomez’s other physical shortcoming, no pun intended, is his diminutive stature. He stands only 6’0’’ tall and is lighter than his listed 170 pounds. Any pitcher in this situation will find himself under intense scrutiny for any signs of physical breakdown. These shortcomings did not prove much of a problem in the Midwest League as Gomez struck out 149 in 143 innings while limiting opponents to a .222 BAA and 7 home runs, all excellent numbers. On the negative side, he also walked 73 men during that time. Fortunately, much of his struggles with the strike zone were at the outset of the season, when he was nearly demoted to extended spring training, and as the year went on he seemed to gain a better idea of where the ball was going upon release. In ’05 Gomez will begin the year as an integral member of the Tampa rotation. His progress through the Yankee system has thus far been slow and steady; he’s played 1 level per year while holding opponents to a career .192 BAA along with 247 strikeouts and only 149 hits and 8 home runs allowed in 220 career innings. He and Clippard are an example of attempting to balance ceiling and risk. At this point, Gomez appears to have the higher ceiling because of his big time fastball, however, Clippard’s performance, specifically his strike zone control, and his larger frame would make him a safer pick. If Gomez can even begin making minimal strides in either his control or development of his secondary pitches he can easily become one of the top left-handed prospects in baseball. By the same token, hitters will only get better as he moves up the chain and his control could effectively prove a huge obstacle to a successful career because even LOOGYs need some modicum of control. Next prospect: Pitcher
Well, that sucked by SG
After two great wins to start the season, the Yankees appeared to be well on their way to the season-opening sweep that I foolishly predicted. Gary Sheffield's bases loaded sac fly in the bottom of the 8th gave them a 3-2 lead. However, for the second game in a row, Mariano Rivera was unable to hold the lead. The top of the ninth started badly with a leadoff walk to Bill Mueller. Mark Bellhorn followed with a single, then Johnny Damon with another single on which Mueller held, unsure if Gary Sheffield could catch it or not. Rivera came back to strike out Trot Nixon, then induced a double play grounder to Alex Rodriguez. Unfortunately, Rodriguez did not pick the in-between hop, and recorded no outs. This tied the game, then a weak Ortiz grounder towards first scored a fourth run. Rivera then walked Dave McCarty and gave up a single to Edgar Renteria that scored two more runs. He followed this up with another walk, this time to Doug Mirabelli.
#7 by Fabian
Season's Second Game (Larry, Me, SG) I was somewhat disappointed in Wang entering the ’04 season. Though making the jump from the NYPL to the AA Eastern League is admittedly very difficult, I had great expectations for Wang due to his having already spent two seasons in the NYPL and being 23. Unfortunately, Wang was very mediocre other than his walk and home run rates as he struggled to make it through his first full season of professional baseball. Thankfully, in ’04, Wang returned to AA and redeemed himself. While Wang’s strikeout rate still was not standout it was very respectable at 7.43 per 9 innings. He also held opponents to a respectable average against of .266. The areas of statistical performance where Wang excelled were his walk rate, 2.15 BB/9 and homer rate, .50 HR/9. Despite this, I remained unconvinced that Wang deserved to reclaim his prospect status, at times calling for a bullpen demotion. It was not until Wang’s season capping run in the AAA International League that I became a believer once more. In 40.1 AAA innings, Wang pushed his K/9 to 7.81, lowered his BAA to .215, and his BB/9 to 1.79. The only peripheral that worsened was his HR rate, which is somewhat suspect given that 2 of the 3 home runs he allowed took place in his first AAA start, so there is some leeway. Wang continued his run of pitching success in the Olympics and in Spring Training where he caught Joe Torre’s eye and has solidly taken hold of the first-call-up-for-when-Kevin-Brown/Jaret-Wright-are-needed-to-make-a-start-and-can’t-spot. Wang is able to excel by placing his fastball, which currently runs 92-95 and tops out at 97, throughout the strike zone’s quadrant. It is his best pitch by far and in combination with his split-finger fastball he can give right-handed hitters fits. Unfortunately, since his secondary arsenal is not as far along as his fastball in the development process, minor league left-handers have been able to take advantage of him. During Wang’s spring training starts this did not seem to be much of an issue, but long-term it is still a concern when evaluating whether or not Wang truly has the ability to stay in a starting rotation. The other question looming as far as the topic of Wang and being a starting pitcher is the issue of health. Wang missed all of ’01 with shoulder surgery, he missed some time in ’03 due to blisters, and he missed time in ’04 due to a hamstring issue. While it is somewhat encouraging that Wang has yet to demonstrate a single recurring injury, it is tougher to trust him knowing that he has come down with some issue in 3 out of his last 4 years with the organization. Though I am no longer disappointed in Wang for his performance not matching his stuff, I still am not his biggest fan. The injury history is a big concern for me as is the issue of dealing with left-handed hitters given his age and the continued presence of the problem. However, he is the Yankee pitching prospect closest to the majors, which counts more so for pitchers as far as I’m concerned. In addition, there is no denying that his fastball is very good and even in a bullpen role, in a possible attempt to stave off health issues, Wang could be very useful. As it stands, his usefulness as a starter is likely to be tested in ’05 given the older slant of the Yankee rotation.
Captains Clutch by Larry Mahnken
No question, 2005 is off to a good start. No major disappointments to speak of, some outstanding performances, some great surprises. One great game, two wins.
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
Jeter, Jeter, Red Sox Beater by Fabian
There are many in the statistical community who doubt Derek Jeter. They feel he is hugely overrated by the average fan and not nearly worth his paycheck. These are the same people who will tell you that clutch does not exist. Well, on this day, Derek Jeter once again demonstrated what clutch is. For many fans, seeing your star closer, who happens to be one of the best of all time, give up the lead in the top of the 9th may be damning. They may be overcome with grief or worry, but such was not the case for any true Yankee fan on this day. Noted Jeter Fan, (in fact, his number 1 such follower by many accounts) Will, put it best, “I get out of my final, see Tek, and then I say, ‘that’s ok, this just lets Jeter hit a walk-off’”. Will was not the only person watching the game knowing that Jeter held all the cards. Dingbat Charlie, sitting in front of his computer and “watching” the game via Gameday knew what was about to happen as he “called Jeter’s homer [,] to himself”. Even lacking confirmation of Jeter’s calm eyes, Dingbat Charlie knew it was only a matter of moments before Jeter would snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
April Fistpumps by SG
Game 2 of the 2005 season continued in the vein of many of the Yankee vs. Red Sox matchups of the past few season. New import Carl Pavano was very impressive in his Yankee debut, mixing a variety of pitches and hitting his spots well, and even striking out 7 batters. MVP-Zilla™ added another big HR in the 3rd inning, keeping on pace to hit 162 this season. With Tom Gordon cruising through Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Kevin Millar in the top of the 8th, everything looked good for another Yankee victory. Unfortunately, Jason Varitek temporarily put a damper on the festivities with an HR off Mariano Rivera, which tied the game at 3 and put the Yankees in a position of having to score off Keith Foulke, a task they had plenty of trouble with last year.
#8 by Fabian
Steven White, 23, RHP My initial instinct was to place Matt DeSalvo ahead of Steven White on this list due to superior statistical performance. However, at the last moment I decided to go with the scouting school of thought on the decision between the two. It is tough to ignore White’s ideal pitcher’s build, 6’5’’ and 205 pounds, and his low-to-mid 90s fastball. Of course, the problem with that fastball is that it is White’s only truly dominant pitch at this moment. Developing said arsenal would ease my major concerns about White. While some may point to White’s fastball, physical size, and 2.61 overall ERA as enough evidence of his prowess, I worry about his peripheral numbers. White struck out 8.74 men per 9 innings as a member of the Battle Creek Yankees, which was along normal expectations considering his amateur experience and tools. Perhaps more encouragingly, White only allowed a .183 opponents batting average, which is spectacular. Despite that, his WHIP was still slightly above 1 as he struggled a bit with his control, 4.06 BB/9. Some of that may be explained by working off the rust from not pitching in quite a while. Lastly, White’s HR/9 was .62, which is solid. Upon promotion to the FSL, White was able to keep his HR/9 around the same level, .60, and improve his control, 2.87 BB/9, but he was more hittable, .226 BAA and 6.64 K/9. This is somewhat of a big deal to me because, once again taking into account his amateur experience, I expected White to do a better job of maintaining his hit and K rates. Since he did not, despite the other performance indicators and his big fastball, I’m not as big on White as some. In general, it is prospects without big time tools that are expected to be proven or broken at AA, but I’m approaching White in the same light. While acknowledging that he has a higher physical ceiling than Matt DeSalvo, I think he will struggle more than DeSalvo in AA at this point due to his repertoire being shallower. Additionally, while I agree that White looks like a future innings eater, I’m not sure if he will be a middle of the rotation one, based on his performance I’m more inclined to think of him as a back of the rotation innings eater. This could change quickly if he can do a better job of maintaining his K rate as he rises through the minors. The key to that will be getting comfortable with more pitches because major league hitters can and will hit the best of fastballs (see: Capellan, Jose). Next prospect: Pitcher
Monday, April 04, 2005
Five Questions: New York Yankees by Larry Mahnken
My THT season preview.
Opening a Can of Whup-Ass by Larry Mahnken
Opening Day is never a must-win. It's never a crucial game. It's never a particularly important game. Ever.
Sunday, April 03, 2005
A great start by SG
If you were to draw up the perfect opening day scenario, it would've been pretty close to what we saw tonight. It's only one game out 162, but there were several signs that portend good things.
Showtime by Larry Mahnken
It's only a few hours now until the season starts, and I am really, really excited.
One man's Yankee predictions by TVerik
I don't mean to slap SG around for his staff predictions, but this is a Yankee blog. So I'm going to give a few individual predictions.
Saturday, April 02, 2005
An Open Letter to Joe Torre by sj
Dear Joe Torre,
#9 by Fabian
2005 RLYW Staff Predictions Hughes was seen as one of the best HS talents available in the draft and like Eric Duncan before him, the Yankees were the beneficiary of him sliding back to their first pick. Hughes signed quickly, but unlike many who sign early, he was not able to get much work in. This was because Phil Hughes seemed to just have really bad luck in the year ’04. On his way to an appointment with the Yankees, Hughes was involved in a minor accident, which fortunately, did not slow the timetable for his GCL debut. Then, after two starts in the GCL, Hughes was shut down with a sore elbow. While some feared the worst, considering the history of high school pitchers (looks around nervously…raises hand), Hughes was eventually diagnosed with just having a slight case of tendonitis. After some extra cautious rehab, the Yankees felt comfortable enough to let Hughes return to the mound. He put together a great start and then was never heard from again in the GCL box scores. This time, the issue was that Hughes, was running to answer the phone while in a hotel and broke his toe when his foot a wall. Hopefully for the Yankees, all these occurrences are just bad luck, because there are enough natural injury concerns to think about with young pitchers. While Hughes only managed to take the GCL mound 3 times, each time he was dominant. *Ridiculously, almost comical in fact, small sample size alert* In 5 GCL innings, Hughes allowed 4 hits and struck out 8 with an otherwise clean statistical record. Though he throws a low 90s fastball, what always stood out about Hughes was his control and command. In his senior year of high school, Hughes allowed 41 hits, 12 runs, 6 earned runs, 3 walks and struck out 83 in 61 innings. While some may feel that I am overly concerned about strikeout rate, I still think it is worth noting that Hughes “only” had a K/9 of 12.2 in his senior year, while other top prep prospects had rates of 23.4 (Mark Rogers), 19.6 (Homer Bailey), 19 (Scott Elbert) and 13.9 (Eric Hurley). Of course, I have no idea about the relative quality of competition that these players faced, other than guys in warm states tend to face the best players, so this could mean nothing. In addition, Hughes’ control was much better. Hughes was primarily a fastball-slider pitcher in high school and this may present some problems in 2005. Since the Yankees want their pitchers focusing on fastball, curveball, changeup trio before anything else they will limit or disallow Hughes’ use of his slider, which means he will have to adjust the way he has pitched throughout his career in addition to making the amateur to pro adjustment. While this may slow his initial performance, I have little doubt that Hughes should get better as the year goes on and hopefully his mature physical build will allow him to hold up down the stretch. Given how advanced he is, I would not be shocked to see Hughes end the year in Tampa, assuming all goes well with him learning and utilizing the curveball. Though he is still far away in the overall big picture and is thus vulnerable to the injury and performance pitfalls of a young pitcher, Hughes has the look of a stud. Next prospect: Pitcher
#10 by Fabian
2005 RLYW Staff Predictions Usually, a 24-year-old pitcher with only 27.1 innings of mediocre AA performance accounting for his upper level experience would not rank this highly. Due to a combination of the Yankee system being weak on players with ANY upper minors experience and DeSalvo’s track record, he does. Though I keep all of those scouting concerns in regards to DeSalvo in mind, I’m still very excited about him because of his performance in spite of those doubts. After dominating at the college level, DeSalvo has dominated during his minor league stints. Overall, he has a career 2.28 minor league ERA with ratios of 6.84 H/9, 0.31 HR/9, 3.32 BB/9, and 9.17 K/9. This includes his 27.1 innings of AA where all of those ratios, other than the walk rate, were worse. Some may look at this as a sign of the scouting concerns catching up with DeSalvo’s performance, but I would surmise that it was more a result of his injuries derailing him. During DeSalvo’s starts at the AA level he was noticeably uncomfortable on the mound and consistently missed his spots within the strike zone, which led to him giving up as many homers in AA, 3, as he had in his entire minor league career to that point. While some slippage in performance in comparison to how successful DeSalvo has been to this point is expected, I think he should be able to pitch well enough at AA and earn a promotion to AAA. Despite a deep repertoire that includes a 2-seam fastball, 4-seam fastball, curveball, forkball, change-up, and slider, DeSalvo’s ceiling is likely not that of a number 1 starter. His smallish size will also prevent many from looking at him as a future workhorse, but since I can’t find much fault with his performance to this point DeSalvo would seem to conservatively have solid middle of the rotation potential.
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