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SG
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Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

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- No Guru No Method

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June 30, 2006

Zone Rating by Week - Jeter and Rodriguez
by SG

As has probably been painfully obvious to the regular readers here, I've been obsessed with defense lately. while I still think there is a long way to go with tracking defense and it is almost impossible to quantify a player's true defensive talent, that hasn't stopped many from trying, including yours truly.

One thing that really spurred my interested in defense was last season's performance by Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez had a rough first half before improving greatly in the second half. Unfortunately, that Zone Rating statistic that is free and publically available is not recorded in splits, but as a year-to-date total.

I've talked a lot about Zone Rating in this space over the past few months, but I'm not sure I've ever really give a compete description of it and I am sure many of you are too lazy to click on the links I've provided that give more background on it.

Chris Dial over at Baseball Think Factory wrote the clearest and most understandable explanation of zone rating that I've seen. I encourage everyone to go take a look at it if you want to understand the next part of this post.

So, anyhow, I decided that I wanted to see how players performed defensively over the course of the season, and I wanted this information to be broken down on a weekly basis. Therefore, I've been recording the ZR of all the players in the majors at the end of every week of the season so far. I have no idea how useful this will end up being, but at least I'll have it.

After 12 weeks, I thought I'd look at a couple of Yankees, namely the left side of the infield. I've plotted their ZR by week below in comparison to the league average at their position at the same point.

I thought this was interesting. Jeter started off very poorly and has slowly improved defensively. He's still below average, but not nearly as bad as he started.

Much like his hitting, Rodriguez's defense has been somewhat inconsistent. Right now he's about average, which while better than last year is still a little disappointing.

If anyone finds this useful or wants to see any other players let me know.

Update: Added Melky in LF and Bernie in RF by request from Brent

The Yankees get the "Mighty" Mets now, who are fresh off getting their asses handed to them by the Red Sox. Way to step up Mets. The pitching matchups:

Friday
O. Hernandez (4-7, 5.82) vs. M. Mussina (9-3, 3.28)

Saturday
S. Trachsel (6-4, 4.82) vs. R. Johnson (9-6, 4.84)

Sunday
A. Soler (2-2, 4.68) vs.J. Wright (4-5, 4.18)

Those matchups seem to heavily favor the Yankees, which probably means they'll get swept. 2 out of 3 doesn't seem like enough to me, so let's hope for a sweep by the real Kings of New York.

--posted at 9:08 AM by SG / |

June 29, 2006

Shut Up Forever
by Larry Mahnken

Hideki Matsui never did it. Gary Sheffield has never done it. Bernie Williams has never done it.

Jorge Posada has done it twice, including once earlier this season. Jason Giambi, well, we all remember when he did it. Ken Griffey, Jr. didn't do it until this May.

Derek Jeter has never done it.

Yesterday, Alex Rodriguez did it, hitting a walkoff home run to erase a 3-2 deficit and give the Yankees an InstaVictory, 4-3. Such a home run is much rarer than you think, in A-Rod's first two seasons as a Yankee it only happened 22 times in the majors -- less than once every 220 games. And yesterday was A-Rod's first time.

In fact, not only was it's A-Rod's first deficit-erasing-walkoff-homer, it was also the very first hit he's ever had as Yankee that turned a deficit into a lead in the seventh inning or later. That's right, even though those kind of hits aren't that common, either, the closest A-Rod has ever come to turning a late deficit into a lead with the Yankees was when Shannon Stewart let his double bounce into the stands to keep Derek Jeter at third base in the 2004 ALDS.

If you really think about it, this wasn't just a clutch hit -- of course it's not, A-Rod's had LOTS of clutch hits, people just act like he hasn't -- but it was THE most clutch hit possible. A hard hit ball to a corner infielder or a grounder up the middle, and the Yankees would lose, but instead they won, and nothing was left to chance. A-Rod didn't even need to run to first to see if it would hit off the wall, that ball was gone the moment he hit it.

This is bigger than a slump-busting homer, and it's bigger than a data point on my spreadsheets that probably won't convince anyone who already thinks they'd have been better off with Soriano. This is the argument-ender -- not for rational argument, which would probably have to conclude that Rodriguez is, at worst, average in the clutch -- but for the sports call-in show types, who like to ignore the double off of Nathan, and the homer off of Schilling, or the ninth-inning tying homer off of Wickman last year. This was supremely clutch. Who cares what team it was against, or what pitcher it was off of? You didn't hear that bullshit when Jeter hit his Opening Day homer off of Ambiorix Burgos of the freaking Royals.

When it comes to clutchness, A-Rod isn't Ortiz. But then, here is a complete list of players who have been as good or better than in the clutch as David Ortiz in the past decade:

1) David Ortiz

Comparing A-Rod to Ortiz and declaring him insufficiently clutch because he comes up short is ridiculous, akin to comparing a hitter to Babe Ruth and declaring him insufficient. Ortiz isn't the baseline, he's the peak, which is all well and good, but it doesn't mean much at all when it comes to evaluating A-Rod.

A-Rod became a "True Yankee" yesterday, whatever that means, like Giambi did when he hit his homer against the Twins -- though Giambi was still never loved until he had his fall from grace last year, then recovered to be everything he once was. But at the very least, the next time a writer implies that A-Rod can't come through in the clutch, at least not in New York, you can make them look foolish without having to pull out more than one number.

--posted at 3:58 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

June 28, 2006

Redemption?
by SG

Coming into this afternoon's rubber game against the Atlanta Braves, Alex Rodriguez was hitting .212/.351/.325 in the month of June. Not coincidentally, the Yankees had gone 12-12 through this stretch.

Then came the bottom of the twelfth inning of today's game. Facing the Braves' newly annointed closer Jorge Sosa, Derek Jeter grounded the first pitch he saw up the middle to Edgar Renteria for the first out. Jason Giambi fouled off three pitches before drawing a walk, and Rodriguez stepped up with the Yankees trailing 3-2.

It seems that Rodriguez has come up in this situation an inordinate number of times this season, and he has failed in most of them. This time was different. After taking two high pitches, Rodriguez took a called strike. He took another pitch, then hit a towering fly ball to left center field that may not have landed yet.

Rodriguez homered with his team trailing in their last AB and the Yankees won the game, 4-3. It doesn't mean that he didn't fail all those other times that he did, and it doesn't mean that he's going to stop failing in these situations going forward. Enjoy it for what it was, a dramatic hit for one of the most talented players in baseball for a team that needed it badly.

--posted at 7:20 PM by SG / |

Starting Lineup - Atlanta at Yankees - 1:05 PM
by SG

Damon, CF
Cabrera, LF
Jeter, SS
Giambi, DH
Rodriguez, 3B
Williams, RF
Phillips, 1B
Cairo, 2B
Stinnett, C
Wang, P

I hope Wang has his A game.

--posted at 12:49 PM by SG / |

June 27, 2006

How to Deal, by Randy Johnson
by SG

Last night, Randy Johnson probably had his best start of the season in the Yankees' 5-2 win over Atlanta. Johnson had a very good slider and threw it a lot. His fastball wasn't particularly overpowering, mostly in the 92-94 range, but he had great command of it and pitched seven innings, walking none and striking out nine. It was a classic exhibit of a pitcher just plain dealing.

Since allowing five runs in five innings against the Tigers back on May 24, Johnson has done the following:

IP: 37.2
H: 24
R: 14
ER: 13
HR: 4
BB: 13
K: 36
ERA: 3.11
FIP: 3.70

He's still been inconsistent, but he looks to be getting better. If he can stay at that level for the rest of the season, it'll be a tremendous help to a team that is fighting the injury bug.

Jason Giambi has apparently put aside all his issues when it comes to hitting as a DH, with two more HRs last night and all 5 RBI. This season, as a "1B", Giambi is hitting .275/.444/.592. As a DH, he's hitting .253/.406/.613. The best thing about this is that it gets Andy Phillips on the field. Phillips has had his struggles at times this season, but they all seem to come after he has not started a few games. When he has gotten consistent playing time, he has produced. With his 3 hit, one walk game last night his season line is now .294/.323/.496 which is a touch below the average 1B. However, he has been one of the best defensive 1B in the league so far, saving around 4 runs above average. Over 150 games, Phillips's glove would be worth 40 runs over Giambi's. That is a massive difference, on the order of four wins. Let's put it in perspective based on zone rating.

The average 1B would see 281 plays in their zone in 1440 innings(a full season). Phillips has a Zone Rating (plays made on balls in his zone) of .915, Giambi's is .724. That means that over 1440 innings, Phillips would make 54 more plays than Giambi. That's the equivalent of eighteen innings that do not have to be pitched by the pitching staff.

Phillips needs to play almost every day from here on out.

From the infirmary, the news is good on Octavio Dotel.

Octavio Dotel was grinning and laughing so often yesterday afternoon, a reporter joked that he needs to smile more. Dotel felt ecstatic after throwing 30 pitches at a distance of 45 feet from flat ground.

The righty reliever, who was shut down last week with tendinitis in his right elbow, said it went "great."

"I was kind of worried about it today," he said before last night's 5-2 victory over Atlanta. "I was like, 'Shoot, how's it going to be?'

"But it feels unbelievable. So now I just have to take my time. No rush."

It's not as good for Robinson Cano.

Following Monday night's game, manager Joe Torre said that while no decision has been made with regards to the DL, it was unlikely that Cano would be on the field in the immediate future.

"It's not too bad, but that doesn't mean he's going to play in the next week or 10 days," Torre said. "We'll have to make a decision."

This is a bad situation made worse by allowing Joe Torre to bat Miguel Cairo second. I like Cairo as a backup and utility man. He's one of my favorite bad players. However, in no way does it make any sense that he gets more AB than Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, or Jorge Posada. Hopefully Torre will come to his senses on this as it looks like he'll playing for a while.

Bold prediction for tonight, Jaret Wright will not pitch a complete game.

--posted at 10:16 AM by SG / |

June 26, 2006

Wasting Chances
by SG

Over at there's a discussion thread about the inferiority of the National League to the American League this season. This is not exactly earth-shattering news, but the thread was based on research by the Red Sox that there is about a 10 game difference in quality between the two leagues.

Unfortunately for us as Yankee fans, the Yankees have not used this opportunity to build up their record against their weaker sisters. While interleague play is in general a farce and hugely flawed due to the fact that teams do not play to the same strength of schedule, here are the records against the NL for the likely playoff contenders this season.

Boston 10-1
Chicago White Sox 10-2
Detroit 10-2
Oakland 7-5
Yankees 6-6
Texas 6-6
Toronto 4-8

New York's performance against the NL has cost them 4.5 games in the standings this season. Granted, Boston has fattened up on Atlanta and has not yet faced the red hot Mets, but the Red Sox swept Washington, who beat the Yankees in two out of three games, and have gone 4-1 against Philadelphia so far, with one more game today. Now I find myself in the sickening position of rooting for the Mets for three games.

The Yankees split a double-header yesterday, winning the opener 2-1 behind a very solid start by Mike Mussina, who rebounded from a rough stretch of starts to pitch very well. Moose started very strongly then seemed to struggle in the middle innings, but gave the team seven innings of one run ball over 105 pitches, 71 of which were strikes. His curveball was back after a few starts without it, and he used it to good effect.

Kyle Farnsworth continues to be an enigma, as he gave up two hits and and IBB but managed to pitch out of it with a scoreless eighth. Farnsworth is killing me right now. I have no faith in him. Mariano Rivera closed it out in much easier fashion thankfully.

In the second game, the Yankees lost 5-0, becoming the last team in the majors to get shut out. Shawn Chacon had another less than stellar outing, although his defense killed him, primarily Jason Giambi. It didn't end up mattering though, as a lineup with Kelly Stinnett and Bubba Crosby mustered no offense.

More of a problem than the loss was a Robinson Cano injury in the sixth, as he doubled but then pulled up lame going into second. The diagnosis is a strained left hamstring and he'll probably miss at least a couple of games.

The Yankees get a struggling Atlanta team at home now for three games. Anything less than a sweep will not satisfy me.

And if you haven't had a chance yet, please take Larry's clutchness survey below.

--posted at 10:42 AM by SG / |

The Clutchness Survey
by Larry Mahnken

I'm doing a survey of baseball fans and baseball people about clutch hitting. Clutch hitting, unfortunately, has a very fluid definition. Everyone has a different definition of it from everyone else.

To me, this causes a lot of problems, and makes it generally hard to determine if there really is a skill such as clutch hitting.

Anyway, here's the questionnarie, you can reply in the comments or email me directly at DLMahnken@hardballtimes.com.

Please note that these questions refer to offensive situations and outcomes. Detailed, specific answers are the most helpful, but any answer at all is helpful.

1) Do you believe that certain situations are "clutch"?

2) If so, what are those situations? (Be as general or specific as you desire, so long as all the situations that fit your description would be considered "clutch" by you)

3) Do you believe that certain major league baseball players have ANY specific ability outside of their normal offensive ability to be "clutch"?

4) If so, what players would you consider to be "clutch"? What players would you consider to be "unclutch"?

5) How many clutch opportunities would you need to see a player in order to form a subjective opinion about their clutchness?

6) Is a double play ever clutch? Is a double play ever not unclutch?

7) Should Sac Bunts, Productive Outs, Reached on Error, Hit by Pitch or Intentional Walks be included in any way in a measure of clutchness?

8) Is a Strikeout more unclutch than any other out that doesn't advance a runner?

9) (Optional) What would you consider a "clutch" outcome for the situations described in #2?

10) (Optional) What would you consider an "unclutch" outcome for the situations described in #2?

11) (Optional) Should outcomes that fit neither under your definition of "clutch" or "unclutch" be considered when determining whether a player performs well or poorly in clutch situations?

--posted at 10:38 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

June 22, 2006

The Book: TangoTiger - Derek Jeter: God of all that is Clutch
by SG

Fangraphs is keeping track of the change in win expectancy for the season. How is Derek Jeter, the clutchest of all clutch players doing? Don’t look now, but he is leading the Yankees in win probability added, with +3.2 wins!

Their best overall hitter (in terms of OPS) is Giambi, and he’s at +1.7 wins. Their next best hitter is Posada at +2.2 wins. Then it’s Jeter, someone else, and then it’s Damon at +1.1 wins and Bernie at +0.4 wins. In the middle of all that is Jeter, and he should be, if he performed the same regardless of the situation, around the +1.5 win level. He’s at +3.2 wins, giving him +1.7 wins of clutch performance, in only 64 games. That’s a +4.3 wins of clutch performance over a season. That is better than David Ortiz did last year. Ladies and gentlemen, we may be witnessing the greatest clutch season of all players, and this will cement Jeter’s status as the God of all that is Clutch.

This entry is from Tangotiger, MGL, and Andy Dolphin's new sabermetric blog. You may remember MGL from the interview he gave us a few months ago.

I knew Jeter was having a very good season, but this surprised me.

Nice win last night, 5-0 over Philly. I'm pressed for time today, so here are my thoughts in bullet form.

- Pulling Jaret Wright after five? Thumbs up. His control was crappy in the fifth.

- Using Ron Villone? Thumbs up.

- Using Scott Proctor? Thumbs in the middle, although he looked ok.

- Using Kyle Farnsworth? Not a big deal, he was already warmed up as the score was 2-0.

- Using Mariano Rivera? WTF? Thumbs way down. This was asinine. I know there's an off day today, but what if Rivera is needed tomorrow? Then he is unavailable Saturday unless you want to pitch him in 4 of 5 games.

- It was nice to see Melky bust out of his slump. His double was a rocket shot line drive that was low enough that the shortstop jumped for it and it still split the OF. I'd like to see more of that Melk.

--posted at 11:01 AM by SG / |

June 21, 2006

by SG

Despite Joe Torre's best efforts at managing them out of the game as well as another appearance from the notorious Bad Moose, the Yankees edged the Phillies 9-7 last night.

Mike Mussina was good except for when he was facing Ryan Howard, who hit a three run monster shot to RF in the first inning after Mussina got rattled by a questionable ball/strike call to Pat Burrell. Moose gave up another two run blast to Howard in the fourth, continuing a brutal June where he's now given up 20 runs in 23.2 innings.

Torre pinch hit for Mussina in the sixth inning, which I thought was questionable but understandable. He went to the underused Ron Villone who pitched an effective sixth and then retired Jimmy Rollins and hit Chase Utley before striking out Bobby Abreu. The game was tied at 5-5 and Villone had retired 5 of the 6 hitters that he had faced.

Villone throws left-handed, but he has done a good job of retiring righties thanks to his cutter. However, Torre felt the need to play matchups and overmanage by bringing in Scott Proctor, who proceeded to walk Burrell on four pitches. This forced Torre to play even more matchup by then bringing in Mike Myers to pitch to Howard. Myers threw a ball then gave up a triple to the RF corner which scored two runs and gave the Phillies a 7-5 lead. Torre then had to bring T.J. Beam who retired Aaron Rowand to end the inning.

I thought Villone was throwing well and should have stayed in. Instead, Torre burned through four of his relievers in this inning and left the game in the hands of Mariano Rivera and Matt Smith and no one else since Kyle Farnsworth was supposedly not available. He also had to double-switch out Robinson Cano because of this, which cost the team one of their hottest hitters.

Thankfully, the Yankees stormed back in the eighth. Bernie Williams capped a 5-5 day with a leadoff "hit". I've bashed Bernie's playing time in this space a lot this season, so it's only fair for me to say "I'm sorry Bernie".

Bernie Williams is now hitting .294/.332/.445. The average AL hitter is hitting .272/.337/.434. Bernie's OPS+ is now 105.

At the end of April, Bernie was hitting .217/.262/.283. Since then he's hitting .325/.360/.510 in 42 games. He's not walking like he used to, but that is a very productive stretch over a quarter of the season, and makes him an offensive asset, although he's still below average for a corner OF on the season.

Unfortunately his value is still depressed fairly significantly by his defense, but I'm very happy to see his offensive turnaround and hope it continues. Honestly, if he hits .325/.360/.510 with bad defense, he's not much different than Gary Sheffield.

Miguel Cairo then walked. Melky Cabrera, who did not start, got a single that drove in one, and then Johnny Damon cleared the bases with a triple. From there, it was the Mo show, as Mariano Rivera closed the game out with two innings, retiring Ryan Howard with two on and two out to end it.

After several really tough losses, it was kind of nice to win one that the Yankees probably didn't deserve to win.

--posted at 9:05 AM by SG / |

June 20, 2006

How to Lose 8 of 11
by SG

On June 7, the Yankees were 35-22 and 1.5 games in front in the AL East. Since then, they've lost 8 of 11 games and dropped 3 games in the standing after last night's 4-2 loss to a Philadelphia Phillies team that had lost 8 of its last 10 games.

It's been a stretch of frustrating games and losses, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly where the problem is, so here are the team's splits over that stretch.

Melkymania is no longer running wild, as Melky Cabrera's slumped severely. Robinson Cano seems to be hitting extremely well, until you realize that he has come to bat with 30 runners on during this stretch. He has driven in 3 of them (2 of his 5 RBI are his own runs on HRs that he hit). Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon are hitting for power but not getting on base at an acceptable rate, and Derek Jeter is also basically a singles hitter right now. Alex Rodriguez was slumping through most of this stretch as well and drove in 4 of the 26 runners on base that he has seen.

The starters are averaging 5.9 innings a game, which is killing the bullpen. Wang has been the only starter who's pitched consistently well, although Moose appears to be a victim of bad luck lately.

I was surprised to see that the pen has an ERA of 3.73 over this stretch. Joe Torre continues to overuse Scott Proctor whose performance no longer warrants it, while Ron Villone waits for extra innings that never happen.

It's a bad stretch, but I'm not ready to jump off the ledge yet. Randy Johnson pitched another good game last night, and if he can pitch 7 innings and allow 3 runs most of the time the team will be in decent shape.

Despite what is being described as mild tendinitis, Octavio Dotel is close to joining the Yankees.

Dotel consulted with Dr. James Andrews, the orthopedist that performed the surgery, and Andrews told him that this was normal for any pitcher working his way back from elbow surgery.

That reinforcement was comforting for Dotel, but not comforting enough to erase any concerns from his mind.

"You have to worry about it; you're coming off Tommy John surgery, and it's not an easy surgery," Dotel said. "The day after I pitched, when I woke up and had that feeling, that night I didn't sleep. I kept thinking, 'Now what?'"

Apparently, the Yankees' Minor League medical staff wasn't concerned enough by the tendinitis to send him for any additional tests. He will receive treatment from the Yankees' training staff for the next three days before heading to Trenton on Thursday.

I'm not expecting Dotel to be a savior. I'm just hoping he can be better than Proctor and ease the workload on Kyle Farnsworth.

Interleague play still sucks, too.

--posted at 9:54 AM by SG / |

June 19, 2006

Balls in Play
by SG

The Yankees lost a couple of brutal games this weekend, both which should have been wins. I didn't get to see Saturday's game thankfully, but did have the misfortune of watching yesterday's. Chien-Ming Wang made his third straight strong start, despite still not missing any bats. With a depleted 12 man pen (I'm not going to include Ron Villone in the count since Joe Torre doesn't), Wang gave his team everything they needed to win. Unfortunately, his offense did not pick him up. He deserved better than he got.

A lot has been made of Wang's inability to strike hitters out. I'm not convinced that this is a huge problem if he can continue to control opponents' extra base hits and continues to show good control. How big of a problem is it to allow the opponents to hit the ball?

The following ten pitchers are allowing the highest percentage of the batters they face to put the ball in play (min of 50 IP).

Wang - 84%
Silva - 83%
Johnson - 82%
Loe - 81%
Buehrle - 81%
Halladay - 80%
Wright - 80%
Janssen - 79%
Westbrook - 79%
Moyer - 79%

A pretty mixed list, with some prettyy good pitchers and some really bad ones. However, as a group, they have collectively provided:

821 innings
4.47 ERA
111 ERA+
144 HR+
159 BB+
66 K+
9.5 Runs above average

As a group, they have controlled HRs and BB, which has allowed them to succeed to this point.

Out of these ten pitchers, Wang has been more valuable than all but Roy Halladay (12 runs above average). He has a better HR rate than any of them. Opponents are hitting .284 against Wang on balls in play this season, which is low, but not as low as Buehrle, Halladay, Janssen, or Westbrook. He's induced more double play grounders than any of them, and has the lowest slugging average allowed amongst this group (.315).

The point is that if you continue to focus on Wang's low K rate, you are ignoring the other evidence that he can succeed doing what he's done to this point. He will probably have more bad games than a pitcher who is less reliant on his defense, but the good thing is when he's in a groove he retire batters efficiently and go deep into games. With the way Torre manages a bullpen, this can only be a good thing.

I hate interleague play by the way. Hate it. Pitchers hitting is an embarrassment and ruins the flow of a game. The sooner this farce ends the better.

And the _____ Watch claims its latest victim, as Aaron Small has been DFA'd. I feel a little conflicted about that, because I personally liked Small very much and cannot ignore the fact that without his outstanding performance last year the Yankees would not have made the playoffs. I'm glad he got a payday for that effort, however, indicators were that it was a fluke, and his performance this season seems to agree. If he clears waivers, he'll go back to Columbus and try to figure things out. I wish him well regardless of what happens from here on out.

I'm actually pretty happy with the roster right now, although I still think Kevin Thompson deserves a spot on the team. I'd also like to see them get down to 12 pitchers, although I'm curious to see Jose Veras in action.

--posted at 11:06 AM by SG / |

June 16, 2006

Star Ledger: Yankees Notebook 6/15
by SG

Despite rumors circulating yesterday the Yankees were in hot pursuit of Kansas City outfielder Reggie Sanders, a team official claimed there have not been detailed talks between the teams since the Royals changed GMs two weeks ago. The Yankees last month rejected an offer of Sanders for top pitching prospect Phil Hughes.

I'd never answer a call from the Royals again.

--posted at 10:22 AM by SG / |

June 15, 2006

Maybe he's not Useless?
by SG

Randy Johnson's schizophrenic season may have had its high point last night, in a 6-1 victory over Cleveland. Johnson had what I felt was his best start of the season, pitching six very strong innings. With an average arm in RF he would not have given up a single run, but he did end up giving up one run over 6.1 innings, allowing 4 hits, walking none, and striking out six. His fastball was consistently in the 94-95 mph range, with a high of 97, and his slider was not as flat as it has been so often this season.

Johnson was ejected from the game after coming up and in on Eduardo Perez with his 77th pitch of the night, ostensibly in retaliation for a plunking of Jorge Posada earlier in the game. I'm pretty sure RJ remembered Perez hitting a few HR off him last year, which may have played into who he chose to throw at.

It was a rare glimpse of the old nasty RJ, the one who instilled fear into hitters. I will not trust that he has turned the corner, probably never again given how many bad performances he's had this season, but at least there's now hope that he can be a positive contributor most of the time.

I thought Jorge overreacted a bit to what didn't seem like an intentional plunking, but it seemed to get in Jason Johnson's head. After retiring Robinson Cano on a double play grounder after the beaning, the wheels came off, as he gave up a deep opposite field RBI ground-rule double to the lefty version of Bernie Williams, followed by the capper, a booming HR by Andy Phillips. Phillips got off his slide with the HR and made two sparkling defensive plays, including the game-ender where he did a Jeter-style face plant on a foul pop out.

It was one of those rare games where everything seemed to go right. Every starter got a hit, every pitcher did well, and none of the key relievers were needed. It was interesting to see the Yankees pull Posada before his next AB to protect him, I thought at the time. I'd never seen that before. However, it turned out he has a sore elbow from the beaning and is now listed as day-to-day. More Kelly Stinnett is the opposite of a good thing.

With Boston falling to Minnesota again (go Twinkies!), the Yankees are back in sole possession of first place. Octavio Dotel made his second rehab appearance for Columbus last night, and it went much better than his first outing, as he pitched a perfect inning, fanning two. Swap Dotel with Small and you've got bullpen that I can get behind. More likely they'll send Matt Smith back down for now since Small gives them an emergency starter and more of a long-reliever. I would think that with Ron Villone and Scott Proctor around that that role is already capably filled, but I guess if Torre doesn't really want to use Smith that much it's better that he gets regular work in Columbus.

Moose goes tonight against Cliff Lee, trying to recover from one of his poorer starts of the season. It's a testament to how good he's been that 3 ER in 7 innings constitutes one of his worst starts. However, there's been some signs of slippage his last two outings, as he's allowed nine runs over 13 innings. Hopefully it was just a little bit of dead arm and he gets back on track tonight.

--posted at 9:07 AM by SG / |

June 14, 2006

Chien-Ming Wang: June 13th
by SG

When the two highest scoring teams in the AL got together last night, the last thing I expected was a 1-0 pitching duel. However, Chien-Ming Wang followed up a good outing against Boston last time out with an even better outing, hurling 7.1 shutout innings. Wang faced 27 batters and got 14 of them to ground out, walking just one and striking out three.

I didn't get to watch last night's Yankee game since it was not on MLB's Extra Innings package, so I can't give any of my visual observations of the game. However, based on what I heard on the radio and what other people mentioned, as well as the fact that he shut down a team that came into the game with a league-leading OPS+ of 120, it's pretty safe for me to conclude that he pitched damn well. He even hit 96 a few times according to the radio broadcast.

Wang is tenth in the league in innings pitched now, which is a boon to a beleaguered and overused Yankee bullpen. He continues to succeed despite a very low K rate. His K+ (park-adjusted strikeouts per batters faced compared to league average) is 55, which is lower than all but four pitchers who have thrown 50 innings this season.

The good news is his HR+ rate of 280, which is third amongst that same group of pitchers. He's also displayed better than average control to this point with his BB+ of 128.

Wang's been the third most valuable pitcher to the Yankees this season in terms of runs prevented above average, trailing just Mike Mussina and Mariano Rivera with his 10.4 runs saved above average.

Speaking of Rivera, it appears that any concerns about him have been mitigated, huh? He pitched around an Andy Phillips error in the ninth, striking out two while cutting through the 3-6 hitters on the Indians. He supposedly hit 96 on his last pitch as well.

Robinson Cano also seems to have remembered how to hit for power lately, which I have been a little concerned about. After his slugging bottomed out to .383 on May 31, Cano has been on fire in June.

On May 31, Cano was hitting .293/.318/.383, "good" for an OPS of .701.

Since then, he's hitting .444/.457/.667 for an OPS of 1.123, which has raised his season line to .322/.344/.438. The hot streak has boosted him up to 4.8 runs above the average 2B, which is the third best total in the AL (behind Mark DeRosa and Ian Kinsler of the Rangers).

In other good news, Phil Hughes dominated in his start last night, and Fabian has a nice thorough writeup about it below.

Today, the Yankees send out ~~Kevin Brown~~ The Big Useless to try and stop sucking. His old friend Eduardo Perez has to be licking his chops at the four HRs he's going to hit.

--posted at 9:02 AM by SG / |

June 12, 2006

American League Defensive Stats Through June 11
by SG

I don't have much to say about the Yankees right now, mired in a four game losing streak. With the amount of injuries they've suffered to this point, a streak like this was inevitable, but hopefully they can get Jason Giambi back tomorrow and continue dumping the problem people from the roster. With the demise of Scott Erickson, it is time to set up a new watch. I'm leaning towards Aaron Small, since I don't have the heart to disrepect Bernie Williams after all he's done for the Yankees over the year. I must say that I was very happily surprised to see them go with the unproven Matt Smith over the veteran-ness of Erickson. A rare case of talent prevailing over experience in Yankee-land, and hopefully a good sign going forward.

I pretty much write about only the Yankees here, which I suppose makes some sense since this is a Yankee blog and all, but I thought it may be interesting to some to look at how some other players in the AL have been playing defensively this season using the Zone Rating system that I have been using to evaluate defense, which is a combination of the systems devised by Chris Dial and Sean Smith over at Baseball Think Factory. Below are the defensive stats for all players who have played at least 200 innings at a position so far this season for the only league that matters.

In the charts below, YTD INN and Runs are actual innings played and runs above/below average. R/150 is the amount of runs the player would save over 150 games, and Pace INN and Runs are what the player is on pace for based on their playing time to this point.

Not much of a surprise that Jason Giambi is the worst defensive 1B in the AL on a rate basis, although ZR does not measure all the various aspects of playing 1B, primarily scooping ability.

Robinson Cano has fallen off a bit from his earlier pace, when he was around +12, but he's still slightly above average.

Mike Lowell is going to make the Red Sox front office luck into looking like geniuses, isn't he? Alex Rodriguez has had a rough few weeks defensively, he was on a +10 pace last month.

Catcher's defense is not based on ZR, but on a bunch of factors like SB, CS, PB, etc., Jorge Posada's defense was also better earlier in the season. It could be regression or a manifestation of his hamstring injury.

Johnny Damon's been very solid defensively so far, much better than he was last year (around -15).

I miss Hideki Matsui's bat. I don't much miss his defense.

Bernie Williams missed the 200 inning cut off in RF, but he was -4.4 runs in 188.1 innings, which is a -31 R/150 rate.

Take heart Derek Jeter fans. There are three AL SS who are worse defensively.

These defensive stats have some limitations due to the minimal amount of publically available statistics as well as the sample size of 200-500 defensive innings. Also, some people feel that a ZR based stat does not give enough credit to players with very good range, who will often make plays outside of what is typically defined as that defensive position's zone. However, I think it can be a useful thing to look at.

--posted at 1:43 PM by SG / |

June 8, 2006

Sheffield to have surgery; out until at least September
by SG

A week after going on the DL, Gary Sheffield learned he'll be out longer than 15 days.

Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Thursday that Sheffield will have surgery on his injured wrist and is expected to be out until at least September. Cashman said the injury is not career- or season-ending.

Tests last week showed a torn ligament in the wrist, as well as a tendon that continues to dislocate. Sheffield was on the 15-day disabled list from May 6-23 with the same injury.

He was replaced on the active roster by outfielder Kevin Thompson.

Well ain't this a kick in the ---? This is disappointing, but expected. If the Yankees do what they should and use this to upgrade their defense by playing Kevin Thompson or even Bubba Crosby more often, this may not be a bad thing. If they use it to get Bernie Williams 500+ AB, it could be the worst thing ever.

Here's tonight's lineup.

1. Johnny Damon, CF
2. Melky Cabrera, LF
3. Jason Giambi, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Jorge Posada, DH
6. Robinson Cano, 2B
7. Bernie Williams, RF
8. Miguel Cairo, SS
9. Kelly Stinnett, C

Hooray for House Money!

--posted at 5:10 PM by SG / |

June 7, 2006

2/3 of the Earth is covered by water, the rest is covered by Melky Cabrera
by SG

In a dramatic game last night, the Yankees edged Boston 2-1. Chien-Ming Wang finally got over his Boston woes, pitching seven innings of one run ball, but the highlight of the game came in the top of the eighth.

Kyle Farnsworth, who has struggled of late, was set to face Mark Loretta, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez nursing a 2-1 lead. Farnsworth retired Loretta and then struck out Ortiz, which brought up Manny, who hit one that looked like it would tie the game. Melky Cabrera raced back to the wall, jumped, and caught the ball, taking away what looked like it would be a HR and saving the game. Mariano Rivera cruised through the top of the ninth, and the Yankees had another victory over their arch-rivals.

Andy Phillips was also key yesterday, despite going 0 for 4. He flashed the leather on several plays that kept the game close.

While it was nice to see Bernie go deep, his defense in RF was really painful to watch yesterday. Bernie's HR likely locked up another month of starts for him. I don't think he should be playing as much as he has so far, and would like to see Kevin Thompson get a chance, especially before Bubba Crosby returns and relegates Thompson back to Columbus undeservedly.

Schilling vs. Wright tonight which seems to be a huge advantage for Boston, but that's why they play the games.

--posted at 9:02 AM by SG / |

June 6, 2006

Terrence Long designated for assignment
by SG

From Peter Abraham's blog:

OF Terrence Long was designated for assignment and INF Nick Green was purchased from Columbus. With Derek Jeter out again today, the Yankees needed a backup infielder. Green was obtained from Tampa Bay earlier this season. Long "hit" .167 in 12 games for the Yankees. As I can't imagine anybody claiming him on waivers, he'll probably be back in Columbus before too long.

Thus ends the Terrence Long watch for now. I suppose I can change it to the Scott Erickson watch instead. Thanks to the ever vigilant Jeteupthemiddle.

Abraham's also got tonight's lineup:

Johnny Damon CF
Melky Cabrera LF
Jason Giambi DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Andy Phillips 1B
Bernie Williams RF
Miguel Cairo SS
Chien-Ming Wang RHP (5-2, 4.82)

--posted at 4:27 PM by SG / |

by SG

No one, and I mean no one, comes into our house and pushes us around. - the Coach from Rudy

Last night, the Yankees did something they rarely seem to do, and blew out the Boston Red Sox 13-5. My favorite part of the offensive explosion was the continued good play of Andy Phillips, who has shown he belongs at the major league level. Mike Mussina got his 8th win despite being shaky, although I think a few long innings on the bench contributed to that. Moose has been the most valuable pitcher in the AL this season by my numbers, 21 runs above average.

I've talked about Moose a lot this season, so let's look at the position players. Reader J asked me for a comparison of some current Yankees vs. some of the lost Yankees to see if the Yankees were really that much worse off with Melky and Phillips replacing Matsui and Sheffield. Even though he thinks I'm a pencil-necked geek, I will oblige him.

Although I really should use projections due to the sample sizes in this season's numbers, Melky's projection potentially understates his ability because at his age development is a real and likely possiblity. Similarly, projections for older players like Bernie and Sheffield may overstate their ability at this point if they've suffered real physical declines that may not have shown up in prior seasons. For this exercise, I'm looking at three separate combinations to cover 1B, LF, RF, and DH both offensively and defensively. Anyway, here's a run down based on how the following three groups have performed this season.

In the charts below, Off is the offensive runs above/below average compared to that position over 150 games based on YTD performance. Def is the same thing, but for defense over 150 games.

Combination 1

Combination 2

Combination 3

Again, this is not completely scientific due to the small sample size of this year's offensive and defensive performances. If I wanted to do this the right way I'd incorporate this season's performance into the pre-season projections for offense and defense and adjust accordingly, but I'm still in vacation mode.

Melky's defense rates very high due to his high assist total, but his ZR is below average. If runners stop running on him his defensive value will decrease accordingly. Also, it's pretty likely that a healthy Gary Sheffield would have much better offensive numbers than he has had to this point, and Hideki Matsui was also underperforming somewhat. Still, it's pretty interesting to see that the current iteration is better than either of the other two combinations had been this season. If they'd replace Bernie's playing time with Kevin Thompson's, they'd really be somewhere. Bernie is killing this team right now, offensively and defensively.

Last night's game was fun, but it only counts as one. Chien-Ming Wang seems to struggle against Boston and the Yankees have never seen Dave Pauley before, so I have no idea what to expect tonight.

--posted at 9:01 AM by SG / |

June 5, 2006

Starting Lineup: Red Sox at Yankees, June 5, 2006, 7:05 PM ET
by SG

Johnny Damon CF
Melky Cabrera LF
Jason Giambi DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Andy Phillips 1B
Bernie Williams RF
Miguel Cairo SS

SP: Mike Mussina (7-1, 2.42 ERA)

No Captain, but at least Giambi's back. Nice to see Kevin Thompson getting buried. At least he's getting the big league meal money by being called up.

--posted at 5:32 PM by SG / |

Catching up
by SG

While I was away, I caught bits and pieces of the Yankee games and news, mainly through newspapers and glimpses of the unwatchable ESPN. After falling to the Royals on May 26 when Jason Giambi hit into a ninth inning double play with the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on first, the Yankees went on a roll, winning the next two games against KC, taking 3 of 4 against the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers on the road in what could have very well been a sweep, then taking 2 from Baltimore before losing yesterday.

Particularly impressive is that they did all this despite a list of unavailable players that just continues to get longer and longer. Gary Sheffield's torn wrist tendon sounds really, really bad. I don't know how he can come back from something like that without surgery, and having surgery would seem to put him at risk to miss the rest of the season. According to this article:

Doctors say Sheffield, who already has missed about a month, has a torn ligament and a dislocated tendon in his wrist, which they will try to fix conservatively but may have to operate on if it does not begin to heal on its own.

The good news is that the injury situations have forced Joe Torre to make use of players he otherwise would never play. After rotting on the bench for most of the season, Andy Phillips has been inserted into the starting lineup and has performed, just like his minor league numbers indicated he might if he was given a fair chance. After starting in 16 of the first 49 games and never more than two in a row, Phillips has started the last six games, and has hit .480/.464/.760 and hit two HRs and driven in eight runs. His overall season line of .291/.318/.456, while not great, has made him about one run below average so far offensively. However, I have his glove as about 3 runs above average so far this season, as he's made 38 plays out of 41, where the average 1B would have made 34 plays. This makes him a slightly above average player so far. With the present roster, I can see no rationale that he is not starting every day, particularly since Jason Giambi appears to be hitting reasonably well as a DH this year.

Giambi as a 1B: .282/.472/.672 in 171 PA
Giambi as a DH: .276/.419/.583 in 73 PA

A loss like yesterdays can end up being useful, if it helps the team make the appropriate decisions about the chief "contributors" to it. Kevin Thompson got a hit and drew a walk in his major league debut on Saturday while playing decent defense in RF. His reward? A benching on Sunday for the decrepit Terrence Long, who's been Womackian this season so far. Long is what he is, a bad hitter who can't play defense. While the Yankees need OF depth and Long is fine as a 4th or 5th OF, he should NOT be starting, especially over someone like Thompson, who projected better coming into the season, and who is younger, and who could be useful to the Yankees, not just this season, but over the next five or six.

Thompson doesn't project to be a star. A 26 year old who was hitting .288/.380/.453 in AAA is not going to be a great player. However, he's versatile defensively, has very good speed, and seems like he could be a very handy fourth OF at the very least, and perhaps an okay starter if he's a late bloomer. As long as he's up, he should be starting, particularly over someone like Long or Bernie Williams.

Continuing in that vein, Scott Erickson needs to go, pronto. The last time Scott Erickson was even league average, Napster was just invented, Lance Armstrong was winning his first of seven Tour De France titles, Windows '98 was the operating system of choice, Wayne Gretzky was still playing in the NHL, and the Sega Dreamcast was released to rave reviews.

In other words, Erickson has sucked, not just this season, but for SEVEN FREAKING YEARS. I'd rather see what Ramiro Mendoza, Jose Veras, or Kris Wilson could do than continue trotting Erickson out there.

I think it's also time to cut the cord on Aaron Small, or at least send him back to Columbus, because it's pretty clear that whatever was working last year isn't working this year. It's pretty ugly all around.

2005
HR/9: 0.5
BB/9: 2.8
K/9: 4.4
FIP: 3.86

2006
HR/9: 3.7
BB/9: 4.1
K/9: 3.7
FIP: 9.04

That HR rate is horrendous. He's also walking more people and striking out fewer. None of this takes away from what he did last year, and I'm glad he got a nice payday for that, but the fact is that he is hurting the team in 2006 and should not be on it right now. Hopefully, the pending return of Shawn Chacon will fix this problem.

The Yankees limp home now to face Boston, with what looks to be a day-to-day Jeter, stomach flu-ridden Giambi and Alex Rodriguez, and with Mariano Rivera recovering from a back injury. Thankfully, it appears that Randy Johnson has figured something out as he's been better his last two starts. The practical side of me says we should be happy with a split of the four game series, but that doesn't feel good enough to me. I want to see the Yankees win 3 of 4. I know it's not probable given the injuries, but winning taking 3 of 4 in Detroit wasn't probable either.

And make sure you scroll down a bit more and read Fabian's draft preview.

--posted at 9:40 AM by SG / |

June 4, 2006

Starting Lineup: Yankees vs Orioles, June 4, 2006, 1:35 PM ET
by SG

Johnny Damon CF
Melky Cabrera LF
Derek Jeter SS
~~Jason Giambi~~ Alex Rodriguez DH
Jorge Posada C
Bernie Williams RF
Andy Phillips 1B
Robinson Canó 2B
Miguel Cairo 3B

Aaron Small P

--posted at 12:18 PM by SG / |

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