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Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

December 25, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

Hi everyone, Happy Xmas. What did you get? I got the flu.

Okay, I actually got the flu sometime last week, but I've been ill all week, and I've been more or less bedridden, and missed more work than I can afford, not to mention blogging. Blogging's hard enough in the offseason, trying to write something about the Yankees rather than, well, this. I'm not very clearheaded still, so I can't really say anything about baseball, but I'd like to let you all know that I'm relatively okay.

So, have a Happy Xmas everybody, and I hope you got everything you wanted. Although I know you Red Sox fans didn't. Which pleases me very much.

I'll be back, well, eventually, I hope. But, the flu did kill 40 million people in the early 20th century, so let's not count our chickens yet.

--posted at 12:59 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 18, 2003

What did Satchel say about looking back?
by Larry Mahnken

Normally, the offseason belongs to the Yankees. They may not make the most moves, they may not sign the best players, but when the last free agent is signed, and the last trade is made, it seemed fairly clear that the Yankees were going to field the best team going into the season. Everyone started the offseason chasing the Yankees, everyone ended the offseason chasing the Yankees. Every year since 1998, the Yankees have either had the best record in baseball, or played in the World Series.

The plan was simple: they would figure out where they had a whole, and they'd fill it with the best available player, or close to it. In 1997 it was second base and Chuck Knoblauch, in 2000, it was the starting rotation and Mike Mussina, in 2001, first base and Jason Giambi, in 2002, left field and Hideki Matsui. Even after winning 125 games in 1998, they added Roger Clemens.

This year, they saw many holes, and made many moves. To make up for the loss of two of the top 15 pitchers in the American League, they traded one of the best young hitters in baseball for one of the best pitchers in baseball, and their worst starter for yet another ace. Their bullpen was a disaster in the early part of the 2003 season, and looked shaky at times down the stretch, so they revamped it by adding two of the more dominant reliever in baseball last season. They finally acknowledged the decline and fall of Bernie Williams's defense, and brought in Proven Veteran Kenny Lofton to nudge Bernie to DH. And to fill the biggest non-ALCS hero hole in their lineup, they brought in Gary Sheffield, who in a world without Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols, would probably have been National League Most Valuable Player.

Indeed, the Yankees have done well, at least for the 2004 season. They have probably made their team better, and it is highly unlikely that they have become worse. In past years, sportswriters without analytical minds would have declared them World Champions before pitchers and catcher even reported, and bemoaned the state of the National Past-It's-Time. They still may.

But while the Yankees have an excellent team headed into 2004--quite possibly the best team, and if everything was to go perfectly, perhaps one of the great teams of all time--a World Series title is hardly a given. Nor is the pennant, or even the American League East title. Indeed, all that can be safely said about the 2004 Yankees is that unless things go horribly wrong, they are almost certain to make the playoffs.

The Boston Red Sox fielded a team in 2003 that was nearly as good as the Yankees', and indeed may have been better. The Red Sox were neck and neck with the Yankees in the standings until the last few weeks last season, and while they lost the season series 10-9, Boston's victories over the Yankees were more overwhelming than the Bombers' wins over the Sox. Appropriately, the ALCS came down to the bitter end, the Red Sox had a three-run lead with five outs to go in Game Seven, but blew the lead in improbably fashion and lost the game and the pennant in even more improbable fashion. Further, while the Yankees were 6 games better than Boston in W-L record and nearly two games better in Pythagorean Record (an expected record based on runs scored and allowed), Boston's record when adjusted for the performances of their players and the quality of their opponents was nearly three games better than the Yankees, implying that perhaps the Red Sox were unlucky (or perhaps a few dominating wins against inferior teams threw the numbers off). No matter how you look at last season, you come to the same conclusion: the Red Sox are a damn good team.

And they have a damn good front office, too, led by General Manager Theo Epstein. Epstein took a strong 2002 team and improved it through a series of low-profile, economical moves--filling a hole at first base and DH with Kevin Millar and David Ortiz, bringing in an alternative to Shea Hillenbrand at third base, ultimately making Hillenbrand, who is a solid player but overrated, expendable. A bold experiment in the bullpen failed because the Red Sox had difficulty finding reliable relievers to get the job done, but by season's end, he had assembled a quality pen.

This offseason, the Red Sox have made transactions of a much higher profile, doing the very best they could to make their team the very best it could be. They had a hole in their rotation, and rather than filling that hole with a league average pitcher, or even a solid pitcher like Kevin Millwood or Bartolo Colon, they added a true ace in Curt Schilling, and they key player that they gave up for him was Casey Fossum, who might have helped the Red Sox this season, but whose value lies more in his potential down the road. To improve the bullpen, they added Keith Foulke, one of the finest relief aces in the game. It's unlikely that the Red Sox will use Foulke as anything other than a "closer" in 2004, though they probably won't be shy about using him for multiple innings, but he is certainly an ideal fit for the Sox. The acquisition of Mark Bellhorn from the Rockies, a player of great value who was buried by Dusty Baker in Chicago earlier last season, is probably an upgrade at second base, and creates the potential for the historically great Red Sox offense of 2003 to be even better in 2004.

But rather than stop with trying to fill holes, the Red Sox have taken a bold step--they tried to upgrade at positions that were already strengths. In Nomar Garciaparra, they have possibly the second-best shortstop in the game, and a favorite of the fans. In Manny Ramirez, they have a controversial player whose offensive value is still undeniable, and who is probably one of the five best hitters in baseball. Most teams would not only be satisfied with that, they would be thrilled.

But the Red Sox saw an opportunity to get better, and they went for it. Texas was foolishly willing to part with the best shortstop in baseball, and the best mortal player in baseball, Alex Rodriguez, for Manny Ramirez. The transaction wouldn't be that simple, of course. Boston would have to pick up as much as $5 million of Ramirez's salary each season, a condition that didn't appeal to the Red Sox at all.

But rather than give up on the deal, the Red Sox tried to find a way to make it work. They sought, and received, a negotiating window with Alex Rodriguez and Scott Boras from Commissioner Selig, and attempted to restructure his contract so that, essentially, the money they would be sending to Texas would be coming out of Rodriguez's contract.

At first, I had few worries about the possibility of this trade: Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra (who would have to be moved after this trade) are worth more than Alex Rodriguez, and to make the deal beneficial to the Red Sox, they would have to flip Nomar for a quality left fielder. Indeed, that was not just possible, but probable, but to me, the overall benefit to the Red Sox seemed small.

And then came word that the Red Sox were going to trade Garciaparra to the White Sox for Magglio Ordonez, along with Scott Williamson and receiving minor leaguer Neal Cotts, as well. While Williamson has a great deal of potential value to the Red Sox, the possibility of flipping Nomar for the greatly superior A-Rod and Manny for the, in my opinion, equally good, if not superior Ordonez gave me a terrible scare. That would not only be a better team, that would almost certainly be a team that was better than the Yankees even if everything went right for the Bombers.

What was especially frustrating was that the Yankees probably could have Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano, move Derek Jeter to third base and Aaron Boone to second, and receive a benefit at least as great as the Red Sox would get in their potential trades. But the Yankees are clearly attached to Jeter at short, and their apparent total lack of interest in Rodriguez convinces me once and for all that they do not at all believe that Derek Jeter is lacking defensively.

The Red Sox and Rodriguez negotiated a deal that seemed palatable to both sides, but when the contract was submitted to the MLBPA for approval, it was rejected. The Players' Association determined that the contract constituted a reduction in the value of Rodriguez's contract--a violation of the Collective Bargaining Agreement--and that if the trade was consummated, they would file a grievance.

To most fans, and most of the media, this seems blatantly unfair: if Rodriguez is amenable to giving back $25 million, why shouldn't he be allowed to? Why is the MLBPA being so greedy?

At this point, I should point out that I'm not a lawyer, but as I understand it, the MLBPA couldn't sign off on it. Going from Texas to Boston may have some benefit to Alex Rodriguez in that it satisfies his personal desire to play for a winner and closer to home, but it offers no tangible benefit, and is thus clearly a reduction of value. If the Players' Association were to ignore the provision of the CBA that forbids reduction of a players' salary, it would become unenforceable by precedent, and owners would be allowed to--and almost certainly would begin to apply pressure to players under contract to reduce the value of their contract or be trade to an undesirable team, or have the team disassembled around them. The MLBPA doesn't just represent Alex Rodriguez, it represents everyone in Major League Baseball (even the scabs), and Rodriguez understands that. I'm sure that Bud Selig and Rob Manfred and Larry Lucchino all understand that, too. They're not stupid, they just think that the public is, and to further their goals, they need to bash the players.

This Rodriguez to Boston deal isn't dead yet, of course, but I sure hope it is.

Even if Alex Rodriguez were to go to Boston, the impact on the Yankees' fortunes next year would be far from devastating. The Yankees, as I said, are almost certain to make the playoffs, as are the Red Sox. It seems likely to me that there will be another Yankees/Red Sox ALCS, and it seems likely to me that it will go 6 or 7 games again. In a 7 game series, anything can happen, the best team doesn't always win, and merely being there means you have a chance. Maybe Boston will be better than the Yankees next season, but that doesn't mean they're going to win anything.

Still, the Yankees should try to be the best team they can be. I do not think they have done that.

I fear that the Yankees have made a great mistake in signing Gary Sheffield. Not in and of itself, of course. I fully expect Sheffield to be a very good player for the Yankees, perhaps a great player--perhaps a Hall of Famer. But I think they could have added the same production from Vladimir Guerrero, perhaps better, and in the long term, he certainly seems to be a better risk. It's possible that Guerrero never wanted to play for the Yankees, and it's also possible that his back injury could be chronic and debilitating, that the Yankees could have ended up signing Don Mattingly, circa 1990-1995. But it's silly to think that they didn't pursue him because of money, which is what they say. From what I've heard, it seems to me that they went after Sheffield because they wanted Sheffield more. And I fear that this was a mistake.

In Brown and Vazquez the Yankees have done well. Vazquez is more of an injury risk than generally talked about, but he's not prone, and if he stays healthy this season, I won't be nearly as concerned going forward, but Brown is a ticking time bomb. If healthy, he's likely to be a dominant pitcher, even considering the Yankees' infield defense, unless age and past injuries catch up to him suddenly. However, if injured, he's worthless to the Yankees. Still, flipping Jeff Weaver, who was practically useless to the Yankees in 2003, for a pitcher who could potentially contend for the AL Cy Young is a bold move, and one that potentially could look brilliant in hindsight. Obviously, keeping Pettitte would have been a wise move, but he was hardly free from injury concerns himself, and if both he and Brown are healthy, the Yankees are better off with Brown. The other alternatives for starting pitching: Colon and Millwood are, too me, inferior to what they got.

Kenny Lofton would be both a positive move and a negative one. It's positive in that it moves Bernie Williams out of center field and into DH, and offers an upgrade in the Yankees' outfield defense. It also likely moves Alfonso Soriano out of the leadoff spot and into the middle of the lineup, where his power is more valuable and his impatience less costly. On the other hand, Lofton is hardly a superior hitter, and he barely offers any upgrade over the Garcia/Rivera platoon the Yankees had in right field at the end of last season. Indeed, the best way to use Lofton may be a platoon, perhaps with David Dellucci in center, or Ruben Sierra DHing with Matsui moving to center and Bernie to left against left-handers (though we know that Matsui and Bernie would really be in left and center, respectively). Overall, the move does offer more benefit for 2004 than detriment.

However, the other negative is the possibility of Lofton being signed for two years. This doesn't necessarily preclude the Yankees from chasing Carlos Beltran next season, but if the Yankees made this transaction with the view towards having Lofton start in center in 2005, they would have been far better off signing Mike Cameron, who I believe would be a good hitter in Yankee Stadium, and a spectacular defensive player.

They did a fine job with the bullpen, though they did overpay. Much depends on Steve Karsay's health, but it says a great deal about the job the Yankees did when the best non-Rivera relievers in the bullpen at season's end are the worst relievers going into 2004.

The Yankees did well, but they could have done better. They should have done better. They still can do better. Say all you want about assembling fantasy baseball teams and such, but it sure looks to me like that's what the Red Sox are trying to do.

Last season was a great pennant race, and an even greater ALCS. The Red Sox scared the hell out of me, and they're probably going to do it again. This probably isn't the best Yankees team that I've seen in my lifetime, but I don't think I've ever looked forward to a season more.

It's gonna be great.

--posted at 11:32 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 12, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

And Thursday offered more proof that I don't know what I'm talking about, as the Brown rumors apparently have become reality. And I'm happy to be wrong.

2003 DIPS ERAs*, 2003 Yankees rotation:
3.18 - Mike Mussina
3.50 - Andy Pettitte
3.71 - Roger Clemens
4.15 - David Wells
4.31 - Jeff Weaver
3.36 - Jose Contreras

2003 DIPS ERAs*, 2004 Yankees rotation:
3.18 - Mike Mussina
3.10 - Javier Vazquez
2.93 - Kevin Brown
3.36 - Jose Contreras
4.15 - David Wells

* DIPS calculations by Jay Jaffe. DIPS stats are park-adjusted. Adjusting them for RPF is overkill.

Now, here's my first question: If the Yankees were able to trade for Kevin Brown after Pettitte had already signed with Houston, when the Dodgers knew the Yankees were in a fix, why didn't they make the trade before Pettitte left? Had the Yankees done that, and been able to keep Andy Pettitte...

Well, any rotation where Andy Pettitte is concievably your fifth starter is pretty much the greatest rotation ever assembled.

Thursday opened as a dark day for Yankee fans, and ended with a ray of hope. Kevin Brown is obviously not a long-term solution to the Yankees' problems, and he probably won't repeat that DIPS, but the Yankees have clearly abandoned any pretense of looking long-term. For now, it's an excellent trade for the Yankees, assuming that neither of the minor leaguers involved in the trade is named "Dioneer Navarro", in which case it becomes a potentially horrible trade. It's not, I think, a terrible trade for the Dodgers, either, who move an older, expensive pitcher for a younger, much less pricey pitcher, and one who will almost certainly do better in the National Leaguer, in Dodger Stadium, with the Dodgers' defense behind him instead of Derek and the Gang. Rumors are also circulating that Weaver will be flipped to St. Louis for J.D. Drew, which makes the trade much better for them.

But to hell with the Dodgers, I wouldn't care that much if they got totally shafted here--indeed, I might prefer it. The Yankees flipped their worst starting pitcher for a pitcher who, when healthy, is clearly elite. They traded a pitcher who relies on his defense to create outs for a pitcher with very good K/9 IP rates, and a better than 3/1 Strikeout-Walk ratio.

There are, of course, very obvious health concerns with Kevin Brown. He's 39, which is a health concern in and of itself for any pitcher, but he also missed significant time in 2001 and 2002 with injuries. But he did pitch 211 innings last season--more than Andy Pettitte did--and indeed Pettitte's mechanics have created injury concerns, too. If Brown is hurt in the regular season, he helps the Yankees little, but being healthy and effective in October would make up for that. Essentially, the Yankees have added one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for $9.25 million a year over the next two years. That's not bad--and probably better than having a solid pitcher like Andy Pettitte for 4 years at $13.5 million a year.

Considering that the Yankees' rotation last season was not only the best in baseball when seperated from the defense, but one of the best ever, I think it's safe to say that, if healthy, the Yankees will have the best rotation in baseball again, though the defense will mask that. Indeed, much of the Yankees' hopes for next season rely on the phrase "if healthy".

If healthy, the Yankees have the best rotation in baseball.
If healthy, Jason Giambi is one of the very best hitters in all of baseball.
If healthy, Bernie Williams is still an excellent offensive player.
If healthy, Derek Jeter is the third-best shortstop in baseball.
If healthy, Jorge Posada is one of the best catchers in baseball.
If healthy, the Yankees' bullpen is one of the better ones in baseball.

If all of those ifs happen, the Yankees win 110 games next year. If all of those ifs fail, they fight it out for the Wild Card, and maybe third place. I think some of them will happen, and some of them won't, and the Yankees will be fighting it out with the Red Sox for the AL East once again, while the Red Sox deal with their own set of ifs.

Of course, that largely depends on whether the Yankees can pull in one of the big two outfielders, Vlad or Sheffield. Until one of them has signed, I'm anxious about it. If they Yankees do come up empty here, they've taken a step backwards with their lineup, and the division title becomes a tough proposition again.

This offseason has become an emotional rollercoaster:

Red Sox trade for Schilling-

Yankees sign Sheffield

Yankees trade for Vazquez-

But give up Nick Johnson (Gollum, gollum)-

Yankees apparently don't sign Sheffield-

Yankees lose Pettitte-

Yankees trade Weaver for Brown-

Yankees sign Miguel Cairo-

.

I'm sure I'll be out on the ledge again tomorrow. See ya there.

--posted at 3:20 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 11, 2003

Worst Case Scenario
by Larry Mahnken

Talking to Aaron Gleeman last night, he commented that a good name for my weblog would be "Worst Case Scenario". As my friends will probably attest to, that would probably be a good name for my autobiography, too. I am indeed a pessimist in all things.

But all along I've been confident that Andy Pettitte would return to the Yankees next season. He wanted to stay with the team, Brian Cashman and Joe Torre clearly prized him, and while the most likely suitors could free up enough money to meet his requested price, the Yankees have more than enough resources to beat any offer. There was no reason to expect Pettitte to not be back.

But he won't be back. The Pettitte situation should have been resolved quickly, but instead the Yankees acted like it would be resolved quickly, and instead of taking care of it right away and moving on to other matters, they focused on their other desires first, and put Pettitte on the backburner. They assumed that when the time came, they could throw a pile of money on the table and get Pettitte's name on the contract. But it wasn't just about money.

Reggie Jackson was courted by George Steinbrenner personally. Dave Winfield was courted by Steinbrenner personally. When push came to shove, it was George Steinbrenner who was able to bring back Bernie Williams, and this offseason, George has courted Gary Sheffield. But not Pettitte. Pettitte didn't get the hard sell, he didn't get the phone calls from Torre and Yogi that Jason Giambi got, and meanwhile his friend Roger Clemens was pulling him in the other direction. From the Yankees, Pettitte got cold negotiation. It was impersonal, only about money.

Certainly, Andy Pettitte was not worth the amount of money that the Yankees would have had to sign him for, and the Astros will quickly find that he's not an ace, but a good #2, and that Bad Andy will show his face at the worst times, and with the short porch in left, he might be showing his face often. But he was closer to being worth it than any other pitcher on the market, and more than that, regardless of the money, the Yankees needed him. Now their only left-handed pitcher is David Wells, exacerbating the loss of Brandon Claussen for the steaming pile of...no, I can't bad mouth Aaron Boone, I promised.

Now the Yankees have to scramble, because while Mussina/Vazquez is great, Contreras/Wells/Weaver inspires little confidence. Of the three, Contreras is the only one who might be really good, but we just don't know. That's a rotation that would be great for almost any other division, but in the AL East, with Boston rolling Pedro/Schilling/Lowe/Wakefield/Kim out there, it's inadequate.

They have to get someone else. There are Kevin Brown rumors floating around, and he would be a good fit, but I think that they're more rumors than anything else. Bartolo Colon is gone, and now Kevin Millwood is the only "major" free agent starter left. While Millwood is a pretty good pitcher, he probably carries a reputation as being better than he really is, and with few options left, the Yankees will have to overpay him more than they would have had to overpay Pettitte.

But it gets worse. With the Sheffield contract negotiations breaking down, the Yankees face the possibility of not accquiring any help offensively this offseason. Sheffield wants to come to New York, that much is clear, but he may have offended Steinbrenner enough to eliminate that possibility, which means the Yankees have to turn to Vladimir Guerrero. But what if Guerrero doesn't really want to come to New York, and goes to Baltimore anyway? What then?

Then the Yankees have to turn to second-tier free agents, or play Ruben Sierra in right. All this after having traded one of their best hitters for Javier Vazquez--a good trade, but if this is the end, I'd rather have seen them losing with Nick than with Vazquez.

The Yankees got worse today. Their rotation is worse than it was a year ago, their lineup is worse than it was a year ago, their defense is no better, and probably worse than it was a year ago. Their bullpen could be great, but the bullpen isn't something that makes a mediocre team good. The Yankees aren't mediocre, but they aren't the best team in the AL East anymore, and while they should make the playoffs, that isn't a certainty, either.

The Yankees could still win the division next year, and they could still win the World Series. They'll probably add Millwood or Brown, and sign either Sheffield or Guerrero, which greatly increases the chances of both of those happening. But from where the Yankees now stand, you can see the end. They have no prospects coming up, and nothing to trade for quality players. Their only means of improvement is free agency, whether it be Major League or international. That's expensive, risky, and it eliminates the possibility of in-season improvement.

The crash isn't going to be a crash. They aren't going to drop to fourth place unless the Orioles get really good. But they are going to stop winning a lot of games soon, and settle into a 1980's level of mediocrity. And when they get there, they better realize that they can't buy their way back to the top.

--posted at 11:39 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 10, 2003

A Fool For A Client
by Larry Mahnken

Brian at Redbird Nation has this anonymous quote from an MLB executive:

Gary Sheffield, as you know, made a handshake deal with Boss Steinbrenner in which he agreed to play for the Yankees for $38 million over three years, with much of that money deferred to the back-end of the contract. But Sheffield, as you also know, is acting as his own agent, and he didn't quite realize that the deferred salary wouldn't be accruing interest (or at least not interest that would end up in his pocket). So, according to this exec, when Sheffield walked into Steinbrenner's office to sign the deal with Big George, he told him he wasn't initially aware of how the deferred payments worked, and to make things square the Yankees should just tack on an extra million dollars in salary per year. Steinbrenner got up, walked across the room, opened the door, held it open for Sheffield, and said, "Goodbye."

According to this exec, there is "zero percent" chance Sheffield will end up playing for Steinbrenner. I'm not so sure about that, but it does explain some recent activity.

Wow. Hello, Mr. Guerrero.

Many thanks to Repoz.

--posted at 8:34 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Stupid Free Agent Tricks
by Larry Mahnken

"A man who represents himself has a fool for a client."
-Unknown

The whole Gary Sheffield situation is getting weird. A week ago, it seemed that Sheffield in pinstripes was fait accompli, the only reason it wasn't announced, it seemed, was because the Yankees wanted to possibly save a draft pick--if the contract was signed before December 7th, Atlanta would automatically get draft pick compensation, but waiting until after the 7th created the possibility that Atlanta wouldn't offer Sheffield arbitration, as they ultimately didn't, and the Yankees wouldn't have to give any compensation to the Braves.

Was it sneaky and underhanded? Absolutely. But unless Sheffield's signature was on a contract, it wasn't against the rules. As George Steinbrenner and David Wells can attest to, handshake agreements are worth the paper they're written on. Sure, the Yankees might have had a contract drawn up, but until it was signed, Sheffield could sign wherever he wanted, and the Yankees had no obligation to give compensation.

On Sunday night, the Braves declined to offer Sheffield arbitration, and rumors surfaced that they would file a grievance against the Yankees for their ploy.

Now, let me say this: the Braves will lose this grievance, if indeed they file one. Their case relies entirely on whether or not Sheffield had actually signed a contract. If he didn't sign one, then the Braves are essentially arguing that negotiating before the arbitration deadline with a player that you eventually sign requires compensation, which of course it doesn't. The case that he had an agreement with the Yankees is weak at best. Sheffield's interview with USA Today Sports Weekly indicates that he did come to an agreement before the deadline (but still doesn't indicate the existance of a contract), and the assumption is that the Yankees didn't have him sign anything before the deadline to avoid compensation, while saying that the negotiations had hit a snag to encourage the Braves to not offer him arbitration, making them think it was possible that Sheffield would accept. Of course, it's also possible that Sheffield mislead USA Today about the state of negotiations to give the impression that his signing was imminent, and trick the Braves into offering arbitration.

Atlanta didn't offer arbitration because whatever the suspiscions were, they simply didn't know and didn't want to take the risk that Sheffield wouldn't sign and that they would again be stuck with an expensive player, like Greg Maddux last season.

Today, it got weirder, as reports have come out that the negotiations have hit a wall, as either Sheffield upped his demand from 3 years, $39 million to 3 years, $42 million or the Yankees demanded that a larger amount of the money be deferred. Maybe it's a ruse to avoid Atlanta's grievance, but I think that's unlikely, because A) the Braves really don't have a leg to stand on, and B) what's at stake for the Yankees is their third round draft pick, as they've already had to give up two picks to the Dodgers and White Sox--it's not worth the effort, I'd think.

So, maybe it's true--Sheffield fired Scott Boras this year, and is representing himself in these negotiations. It's not too difficult to imagine that Sheffield would make a mistake that could trip up a contract. Let's hope it's true, because if Sheffield is starting to raise his price higher than the Yankees want to pay, or has pissed Steinbrenner off enough, they're going to have to sign a different high-profile free agent, because you know that George doesn't want to end up empty-handed. And since the Yankees need an outfielder, you know who that means...

Mike Cameron!!!

Okay, maybe Cameron, but more likely Vlad Guerrero, who was a better option for the Yankees anyway. I don't think this will get resolved anytime soon, and Guerrero's agent is probably smart enough to wait until after the Yankees have signed an outfielder to sign with...well, Baltimore, probably, so this could still happen. Speaking of Cameron, his accquistion to play center isn't out of the question, either, since San Diego has started negotiating with Kenny Lofton, too. Okay, now I'm getting all hot and bothered, if I start thinking about an A-Rod trade to the Yankees, I might pass out.

...thump...

I'm not really too concerned about all the A-Rod to Boston rumors floating around. I don't think a trade is too likely to happen anyway, there's a whole lot of obstacles that need to be crossed for the trade to happen, and the Red Sox will also have to accquire decent talent in left field and second base to just remain the same, which is possible, but tricky. The Red Sox might actually become worse with this trade. The enormous amount of money certain to be involved in this trade might even hamstring the Red Sox somewhat, as they, unlike the Yankees, are wary of the Luxury Tax. And even if everything went right for the Red Sox, this isn't checkmate, or even check. It's just a good move.

Of course, the best way to prevent this move would be for the Yankees to swoop in with a better offer and take A-Rod away from the Red Sox, and this is something the Yankees might actually be able to do. Soriano for A-Rod is a pipe dream, but if the Yankees throw in DePaula and Navarro, it might become doable.

But it will NEVER happen, or even be considered, because the Yankees are not going to consider moving Jeter from shortstop. But it's December, and in lieu of actual games, it's nice to dream.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 8, 2003

Yankee Arbitration Offers
by Larry Mahnken

Thanks to NTNGod at Baseball Primer for making these updates, the Yankees have offered arbitration to:

Andy Pettitte (Duh)
David Wells (Who has already said he would decline arbitration, and will likely re-sign with the Yankees)
Gabe White (Who the Yankees want back, and are likely to re-sign)
John Flaherty (The key to the 2003 AL Pennant)

They have declined to offer arbitration to:
Roger Clemens (Why the heck not? I mean, he's retiring, but he might change his mind next spring. Might as well take the pick)
Jeff Nelson (YES!)
Antonio Osuna (No surprise here, he didn't do anything in the second half. There wouldn't be room for him anyway)

And they've re-signed Ruben Sierra to a 1-year $1 MM deal. Curious, since he can't pinch-hit for Nick Johnson anymore (Gollum, gollum). I'd say this is an okay re-sign.

Basically, unless they lose Pettitte (which I think is highly unlikely), they're not going to get any draft picks from anybody, and they've given up several high picks signing Type-A free agents. Yeah, it all makes them better than they would have been, but... that farm system is going to stay pretty crappy.

--posted at 12:49 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 5, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

All at once there came a blood-curdling shriek, filled with hatred and despair. Gollum was defeated. He dared go no further. He had lost: lost his prey, and lost, too, the only thing he had ever cared for, his precious. The cry brought Bilbo’s heart to his mouth, but still he held on. Now faint as an echo, but menacing, the voice came from behind:

"Thief, thief, thief! Baggins! We hates it, we hates it, we hates it for ever!"
- J.R.R. Tolkien
The Hobbit

It's difficult to express how I feel right now. On the one hand, I am heartbroken, as my precious, Nick Johnson, is gone, and likely never to return to the Yankees. On the other, painful as this loss is, I know in my heart that this was a trade that could make the Yankees better, and that it's a trade that they probably had to make.

Above all else when it comes to baseball (and perhaps when it comes to anything), I love the Yankees. But I do hold a great esteem and affection for many of the players who have passed through Yankee Stadium in years past. While there were a few mediocre players in the bunch who earned my irrational yet honest loyalty, most were stars: Don Mattingly, Jimmy Key, Bernie Williams, David Cone, Paul O'Neill, Mariano Rivera, just to name a few. Nick Johnson did not fall into the first group, nor did he fall into the second group yet, but this trade leaves me feeling as I would seeing any of those players sent off. When I try to step away and see Nick Johnson for what he is, I see a very talented hitter with a disturbing injury history, a poor physique, whose rate stats have been outstanding, but overall value is limited by his playing time. He might be great, but the injuries might someday diminish his skills to a level below what he's at now. He's a pretty good first baseman, but they already have a pretty good first baseman.

It's dangerous if you're running a team to get too caught up in names, and place too much value on loyalty. If you asked me for a list of players who I'd be willing to trade Nick Johnson for this summer, I would probably only place Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds and Mark Prior on that list. Putting aside the fact that none of those trades would be remotely close to being fair for the other team, such favoritism excludes a great many potential deals that do make the Yankees a better team, and to ignore them because of loyalty to a first baseman who might be great someday, when you already have a first baseman locked up for the next several seasons who already is great... well, that's just foolish.

I really do think that this is a good trade for the Yankees, because of the situation their roster is in right now, and what this trade allows them to do. It allows them to put Bernie Williams at DH, which frees up center field if they want to add a player with enough skill to give them a quality outfield defense. Signing Mike Cameron right now would be an excellent move, but that's not going to happen. There are some reports that the Yankees have already signed Kenny Lofton--again, placing more value on a name than actual value. Lofton would have been an excellent addition in the mid ninties, when he was a good offensive player and a strong defensive player, but now he's a mediocre hitter with okay defensive skills--better than Bernie, but nothing special. Considering that the offense he provides will probably be equal to that which a Garcia/Rivera platoon would have put up in right field, the Yankees have, in my opinion, taken a giant step sideways with the lineup.

But what makes this deal a good one for the Yankees, regardless of what they do with center field, is the quality of the player they accquired in Vazquez. Javier Vazquez is an excellent pitcher, almost certainly better than any pitcher on the free agent market this season, including Andy Pettitte, and according to DIPS, was even better than the Yankees' best pitcher last season, Mike Mussina. Vazquez replaces the retired Roger Clemens more than adequately, he almost certainly makes the rotation better than it was last year, assuming Andy Pettitte returns, which I still am confident will happen.

There are concerns about Vazquez, of course--particularly his workload and mechanics. Vazquez was ridden hard in Montreal, but if one wants to look at the bright side, the Yankees have assembled such a deep bullpen for 2004, that they are almost certain not to overwork Vazquez. And Vazquez is also precisely the type of pitcher the Yankees should be accquiring with their defense: he keeps the ball out of play.

And even the centerfield situation can be spun positively. Mike Cameron would have to be signed to a multiyear contract to come to New York, while Lofton will only be in pinstripes one season. That opens the way towards pursuing prospective free agent Carlos Beltran next offseason, who will be the ballhawk and hitter the Yankees want.

Yet another aspect of this deal is first base, which Jason Giambi will now be playing every day. Giambi will certainly need days off, and may very well be injured at times next season, too. With Nick Johnson gone, the Yankees will need another backup firstbaseman. Fernando Seguignol's MVP season in the Internation League didn't do much more than get him a few ABs in September, but he'll probably get a chance to make the roster out of Spring Training. There are options on the free agent market too, and the Yankees are not unlikely to pursue those, placing a high value on veterans, even mediocre ones. Travis Lee (ugh) might be brought in, as well as Brad Fullmer, and maybe even Rafael Palmeiro. Jeremy Giambi is available cheap, and if he rebounds from his awful 2003, could provide a great bat off of the bench. Filling this roster spot should be easy.

Five years from now, we might look at this trade and kick ourselves, as Nick Johnson goes on to multiple All-Star appearances for the Expos, while Vazquez blows out his arm in May of this season, and is nothing more than a mediocre pitcher for the rest of his career. But it's also possible--perhaps just as likely--that Vazquez will be more valuable to the Yankees over the rest of his career than Nick Johnson would have been.

I would qualify this as being a bold move, and a far better response to the Schilling trade than the Sheffield signing. I think it makes the Yankees better than they would have been in 2004 otherwise, and the real questions are in the years to follow. I think that if the Yankees bring back Pettitte now, I would consider them the best team in baseball again. I think that this is a good trade.

But damn, it hurts to lose Nick. We hates the Expos. We hates them for ever. Gollum, gollum.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

December 3, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

I think it's safe to say that the reported Gary Sheffield signing came as a surprise to nobody. As the season wound down with the Yankees running Karim and the Gang out in right, we were all pretty sure that the Yankees were going to chase Vlad Guerrero or Gary Sheffield, and as soon as it became apparent that the Yankees weren't going to let Vlad use them to raise the price for the teams he actually wanted to play for, the Sheffield signing was a forgone conclusion. There's not very much the Yankees have done this offseason that's surprised anybody, it appears that they're going to try hard to resign Pettitte, maybe sign Bartolo Colon, as well as bringing back Gabe White and Felix Heredia. The signing of Tom Gordon is a good one, in my opinion, if a little pricey. He'll do for the Yankees what they had hoped Jeff Nelson and Armando Benitez would do, get crucial outs in the seventh and eighth along with Steve Karsay. Paul Quantrill was also pricey, but still good. The Yankees are putting together the most expensive bullpen ever, but at least they'll have pitchers that Torre will trust and use, and will almost certainly get good quality out of them.

The Aaron Boone contract seems pretty ridiculous considering his performance this season, but he was likely to get at least that much in arbitration, and since the Yankees need a third baseman next season, and he's about the best available right now, they had to make that move. As for Enrique Wilson signing for $700,000--well, there's a lot of guys out there who can play three infield positions without any particular skill, and hit from both sides of the plate with even less, and those other guys will play for the minimum. Well, it's the Yankees, not the Royals, and George didn't really need that ivory back scratcher.

No bold move appears forthcoming, though there are rumblings about a Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown trade. Much like the Schilling trade, there is a tremendous upside to that trade, Brown was a fantastic pitcher last season, and while he won't be putting up ERA's in the low 2.00's outside of Dodger Stadium, he's still likely to be very good. But then, like Schilling, the downside is that he might not be very good, or he might be very good, but be hurt so much that it's not much help. A lot of power pitchers have done well into their forties, but when you start reaching the age of Schilling and Brown, the likelihood of their falling off dramatically increases dramtically. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it's something that has to be considered. Still, I'd make that trade--Jeff Weaver is toast in New York.

One of the interesting aspects of this offseason is the limits the CBA places on the number of Type-A and B free agents a team can sign. If I'm reading the CBA correctly, that means that the Yankees can sign or re-sign 8 Type-A and B free agents. Sheffield, Gordon and Quantrill are Type-A free agents, as are Pettitte, Wells, White, Nelson and technically, Roger Clemens, while Sierra, Heredia and Osuna are Type-B Free Agents. It seems likely that the Yankees will go up to that limit.

At this point, the Yankees' 2004 roster is:

SP: Mike Mussina
SP: Jose Contreras
SP: Jeff Weaver
SP: Jon Lieber
SP: Jorge DePaula

RP: Paul Quantrill
RP: Felix Heredia
RP: Tom Gordon
RP: Chris Hammond
RP: Steve Karsay
RP: Mariano Rivera

C: Jorge Posada
1B: Jason Giambi
2B: Alfonso Soriano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Aaron Boone
RF: Gary Sheffield
CF: Hideki Matsui
LF: Bernie Williams
DH: Nick Johnson

B: John Flaherty
B: Enrique Wilson
B: Karim Garcia
B: David Dellucci
B: Juan Rivera

There are rumors that the Yankees are interested in Kenny Lofton--a foolish move, in my opinion--but other than that, it seems unlikely that any other moves will be made to the lineup or bench, leaving the Yankees with a weak bench and a horrible defense once again, but a killer lineup. The rotation clearly needs work--re-signing Pettitte helps, signing Colon or trading for Brown will do that, and the bullpen looks very strong, and will be even stronger if White comes back, though one will have to wonder how all these relievers will get work. That's a very, very good team, but for all that money, you'd think they would be better.

--posted at 3:50 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 29, 2003

Wakeup Call
by Larry Mahnken

The Yankees won 101 games last season, they won the American League Pennant, and they took the World Series to six games before losing. The ending was disappointing, but the overall outcome is very good, and if next season ends up the same way, that's a very good result, too.

But if the Yankees allow themselves to be complacent, and try to do the same thing with the same roster, they will likely fail--not because they will decline, though they likely will, but because their competitors will be getting better, trying to catch them, and trying to pass them. If the Yankees want to win next season, they have to be better than they were this season, because what was almost good enough this year won't be good enough next year.

So far, it seems the Yankees have been more interested in retooling than making bold improvements. Rather than reconstruct the machine, they are tacking more parts on, covering holes with makeshift patches. It is, for the most part, what they've been doing since '98, trying to keep the dynasty going one more year, every year, with only the next season in mind. But eventually, the frame of the team they're building around might cave in, and bring the whole house tumbling down. It hasn't happened, the Yankees keep winning from April through September, and while October hasn't ended the way the Yankees would have liked since 2000, their "failures" are largely unlucky, and each series they lost could have gone the other way. The Yankees haven't missed the playoffs since the early 90's, and they haven't lost the AL East since '97. Until they do, they are unlikely to suffer a shock significant enough to cause a top-to-bottom renovation of the roster.

But maybe this week that shock finally came, and they didn't have to lose anything for it to happen. The Red Sox acquired former World Series co-MVP Curt Schilling from the Diamondbacks in what has to be considered an excellent trade for Theo Epstein. The Red Sox have addressed an area of need in about the best possible way, and they have done so without taking away from strength. No, the deal the Diamondbacks accepted for Schilling was a lesser one than they reportedly demanded from the Yankees, but it was a superior offer to what they Yankees could have constructed without Nick Johnson or Alfonso Soriano.

Now the Red Sox have not only as good an offense as anyone in baseball, but they have one of the very best 1-3 rotations in the game, too, with Martinez, Schilling and Lowe. Schilling's salary makes it difficult for the Red Sox to retain both Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra after this season--perhaps either--and they may have mortgaged their future to take one shot at the World's Championship that has eluded them since 1918, but what a shot it is. The Red Sox, right now, are the best team in baseball, and as it stands, winning next season might be less about things breaking right for them than it is about things not breaking wrong for them.

So what can the Yankees do about this trade? Nothing. There is no trade that the Yankees can make and no free agent they can sign that will make Curt Schilling not a Red Sock, there is no transaction that the Yankees can make that will make his impact on the quality of the Red Sox less in any way. The playing field has been raised, there is nothing the Yankees can do to bring it back down.

What they can do is bring themselves up, make bold moves to become significantly better, not just marginally better--something that they should be doing anyway. There are obvious holes that need filling with quality players, but there are also subtle holes (in visibility, not impact) that need attention, rather than being ignored as they have been for so long. This trade could be the wakeup call that the Yankees need, and how they respond is crucial to their chances for next season.

If they underreact, avoiding making a bold move in response, such as moving Alfonso Soriano to center field, Williams to DH, and trading Nick Johnson, it gets Bernie out of center and Soriano away from second base, but nobody knows if Soriano will be any good in the outfield, and it does nothing to address Jeter's awful defense, and makes the lineup worse, as whoever replaces Soriano at second won't be nearly the hitter Nick Johnson is. It would probably make the team worse rather than better, and the Yankees will have to focus on the Wild Card early next year.

On the other hand, they could overreact, and trade Soriano or Johnson for players that don't make the Yankees appreciably better, if at all, while making more money, and having the name recognition that will have the media groaning, while not actually helping anything.

I don't really know what they should do, or what their options really are, but what I'm starting to think is that they Yankees should react by doing their very best to get Alex Rodriguez.

I don't think the Rangers should trade Rodriguez--he's not the problem--but if they are foolish enough to put him out there for a reasonable price, why shouldn't the Yankees get in on the bidding? Because they already have Jeter? If anyone really believes that the Yankees would be better off with Jeter at short and Boone at third than Rodriguez at short and Jeter at third, please turn in your brain for repairs. Sure, Jeter's defense at third might be as bad as it is at short, but rather than creating a hole on the right side of the infield and the middle of it, he just creates one on the right--while A-Rod makes up for some of Jeter's shortcomings in the hole, and solidifies their up-the-middle D, too. Not to mention the improved offense. And if Soriano is part of the trade, then you can move Boone to second, where his offense is less of a negative, and his defense will probably be a plus.

I think the Yankees should make an offer for A-Rod. Offer Soriano, maybe offer Johnson, too. Take all his salary, send some cash along, see if there's anyone else in the farm system that will make the deal work, too. If the trade can be made, make it. An opportunity to acquire a player like Alex Rodriguez doesn't come along very often--this is the second time in four years the Yankees have that chance. Don't let complacency--the feeling that what you have seems good enough--again allow this chance to pass. Plus, when they idiotically move Rodriguez to third next year, it'll give me something to bitch about all season.

My instincts tell me the Yankees will make a good move, but not a bold one. My fears tell me that they'll make a stupid move. My dog tells me that he contains the spirit of a 6000 year old man. Wait, forget I told you that last one.

--posted at 12:34 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 23, 2003

Online
by Larry Mahnken

Hey, that was fast. I'm back.

Okay, it wasn't fast, I didn't have cable or the internet for two weeks, and had to rely entirely on the newspaper for baseball news, and in a minor league city in the offseason, that is pretty much half a page, if that.

I don't seem to have missed anything big in the last couple of weeks, the BBWAA picked the right AL ROY (for the wrong reasons), the wrong NL ROY, the right MVPs, and probably the right Cy Young Award winners. Not really much to bitch about. 5-7% of anonymous steroid tests came back positive this year, I don't see this as being at all a problem, I was actually expecting it to be higher. I do notice that the media has blown this waaaaaaaaaay out of proportion, probably because they have a need to be outraged about something. I also agree with Rob Manfred for the first, and likely last time, when he told the Olympics to basically shut the hell up. Baseball cannot and should not be held to the standard that the Olympics are held to, or want to be held to. They are not events of the same nature, and not run with the same motives. Baseball is an industry, the Olympics are a competition. The people who run Baseball have a financial investment in the specific competitors, the people who run the Olympics do not. And, of course, steroids do not threaten the integrity of the event in baseball as they could in the Olympics. The goal in baseball is not to be the fastest or strongest. Steroids affect the record books for individual achievements, but no more, and probably much less, than park effects, equipment changes, training practices, and segregation. It's not worth getting outraged about, especially when the known usage is so small.

As expected, the free agent market is moving slowly. The Yankees want Andy Pettitte back, and I think they'll get him back, but serious interest from Houston and token inquiries by the Red Sox to drive the price up means he certainly won't be a bargain. It seems likely that they'll be bringing in Gary Sheffield, too, which is a move that I'm not particularly excited about. Sheffield is a great hitter, there's no denying that, but he's at a point in his career where a decline is likely in the next few seasons, and possibly a large one.

On the whole, I'd say adding Sheffield is a good move, but not a great move. It adds offense to a position where they got little last season, but it doesn't address the team's real needs: defense and starting pitching. It makes them better, but it leaves them vulnerable.

I'd rather have Guerrero, but if the Yankees seriously aren't interested in bidding on him, Sheffield is probably the best choice, Mike Cameron being the only other outfielder I'd have any real interest in. He addresses one of the Yankees' primary needs, would likely hit much better than he has in the past couple of years once outside of Safeco, but his offense is still far inferior to Sheffield's, and while younger than Sheff, he is still entering his decline period. Looking ahead, if the Yankees have any interest next year in pursuing Carlos Beltran, the pieces would fit together better with Sheffield out there instead of Cameron.

The Yankees also seem likely to cut ties with as many faces from last year's bullpen as possible. I think they would have been fine going into 2004 with the same bullpen as the end of 2003, but most of those pitchers have probably lost Joe Torre's trust, and seeing how difficult it is for a young reliever to earn that trust from Torre (I think Rivera only stuck because he never gave up any runs), the front office would probably be best served bringing in a few "proven" relievers, who might not actually be any better than what the Yankees had or have in the minors, but are more likely to get used.

It seems to me that after this offseason, the Yankees might be a little better, they might be a little worse, or they might be the same, but they're not going to be much better, and they're not going to be much worse, which to a degree, is good. But Boston will probably be better, if not much better, Oakland is probably already better, and Toronto is making moves in that direction. The Yankees are still on top of the heap, but they're not alone. Ten years ago, that would have sounded great--at least they were on top--but after having been all alone for a few years, being able to walk around in your underwear and leave dirty dishes in the living room, it feels kind of cramped with someone else there. It's still pretty good, and the lease is still in your name, but it was a lot better before.

* * *

Oh, and I'd like to thank The Score Bard for sticking me in his Periodic Table of Bloggers. I'm Lawrencium. I think I've got a new nickname now. That's awesome.

--posted at 1:41 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 21, 2003

Offline
by Larry Mahnken

I've been without internet for a while, so I haven't been able to update the blog. I still don't have internet, I'm at the library writing this. I'll be back when I'm back online, I don't know when that will be. It's very frustrating.

Just wanted you all to know that I'm not dead. I'll let you know if I ever am dead.

--posted at 1:15 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 6, 2003

by Larry Mahnken

Seems there was some controversy over my most recent entry. Mostly because it wasn't very well written. Well, sorry about that, there was a lot of premise behind some of the things I was trying to write, and I didn't do a very good job of showing the premise.

That's why professional writers have editors, folks. Sometimes what you write sucks.

The first thing I'd like to clear up is that I wasn't taking a swipe at Randolph and Down when I said that maybe Soriano hadn't been coached well, but rather I was showing that it's possible that Soriano is capable of playing second base, and is capable of discipline at the plate, and the assumption that he must be lazy seems to me to assume that the coaching he's recieved is excellent, and discounts the possibility that maybe Randloph and Down are more suited for working with veterans than teaching young players. I'm not saying that's the case, but rather that I think it's unfair to say that Soriano must be lazy. He may well be, though.

I also seemed to be advocating two contrary positions, that the Yankees should keep Soriano and keep him at second base, and then that they should trade Soriano and Nick Johnson. Actually, I was saying that if the Yankees do keep Soriano, they should keep him at second base, and that while I would like to keep Nick Johnson, sometimes trading a favored player is best for the team. I'm not saying that they should be traded, but rather that there are circumstances under which I would trade them.

Let me make it clear: I'm opposed to trading Soriano for Beltran without making any other moves. If you make that trade, you've done the same thing as moving Soriano to the outfield, except Beltran is a better hitter at this point, and at least you know he's going to be a good defensive player (while Soriano might be awful). You're also moving Matsui to right and Bernie to left, and you have to look for another second baseman, and you can't sign a big-hitting outfielder.

I'm opposed to trading Johnson for Vazquez on it's own. You can then move Williams to DH, and in addition to signing a power hitting right-fielder, you can add a center fielder. Say, Mike Cameron. But you've essentially traded an excellent young hitter for an older hitter of questionable ability. Now, THAT would be a Steinbrenner early 80's move.

Nor do I think Johnson for Vidro would be a fair trade for the Yankees, but if you've made a Soriano for Beltran trade, and signed Guerrero or Sheffield, you've got an extra player. You're not going to be able to move Bernie, making either Johnson or Matsui expendable. Obviously, I'd rather have Johnson, but he's also the one who's more tradeable, and the one who is more likely to get value in return. I'd rather have Vazquez, because Vidro, while a solid hitter, isn't very good defensively. I'd rather have Castillo, who isn't as good a hitter, but does make up for some of Jeter's defense. But, if you're going to trade Johnson under those circumstances, you trade him to fill a hole, which in this scenario would be the rotation or second base. The other option is to bench either Bernie or Matsui, keep Johnson, and sign Castillo, which also works, but then you're only allowed to sign one more Type A free agent, and you have to depend more on Jeff Weaver, Jon Lieber or Jorge DePaula to fill out the rotation--and you're again forced to bench one of your best hitters in National League parks.

See, these moves I've proposed aren't meant to stand on their own, rather, they are a plan to not only improve the team, but make the pieces fit better. Can you honestly say that the team I've proposed at the end of the previous post (even if you remove Lowell and replace him with Boone) isn't better than keeping the same lineup and adding Guerrero? The offense might not be as good, but the defense would be far better, and the addition of Vazquez makes the rotation at least as good, of not better than it was this year.

Nobody should ever be considered untouchable, everyone should be available for the right price. The risk of trading away a good young player is that they will become great, and the risk of not trading them is that they won't become great, and the player you passed up would have helped you tremendously. I think these moves, done in tandem, would help the Yankees tremendously, both next season and in the seasons to come.

I also didn't address the situation with Beltran's contract: he's represented by Scott Boras, who prefers to have his clients file for free agency, to drive up their value, and he's eligible for free agency after 2004. There's two concerns here: 1) the Yankees could trade for him, then lose him as a free agent, and 2) the Yankees could also sign him after 2004 without making a trade, and still have Soriano. As for the first concern, it's not one. If the Yankees want to keep Beltran after 2004, they're going to keep Beltran, and not being able to sign him before he becomes a free agent would save them some payroll next season. As for the second concern, it's nice to try to have your cake and eat it to, but it doesn't help the Yankees at all next season, and they might need the help. And, of course, there's the possibilty that some other team could sign (or trade for and sign) Beltran next year, leaving the Yankees looking for other alternatives, and ones that might not be as good as the choices they have this offseason.

The Yankees are a very good team, a team that won the pennant. But they're old, they're deeply flawed, and while other teams can usually settle for that, the Yankees cannot. It's always been that way, the Yankees were never allowed to settle for anything but the best, the city won't stand for it. This offseason offers the Yankees to not only become a better team, but a more rounded team, with fewer weaknesses. There are risks involved in change, but there are risks involved in staying the same, too. If the Yankees don't make any moves, and just grab a right fielder, a starting pitcher, and work on the bullpen, I won't be upset--they'll be better than they were in 2003, and probably the best team in baseball. But they will have missed an opportunity to become something much better.

--posted at 11:26 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

November 4, 2003

Second base--and second thoughts
by Larry Mahnken

Sorry for no update for the past few days. I took the weekend off, and then some stuff came up yesterday. There wasn't much news over the weekend anyway, the Yankees declined their options of Gabe White and Antonio Osuna, which wasn't at all surprising. Osuna was ineffective in the second half, and didn't make the postseason roster, and even if the Yankees want White back (I'm not sure if they do or not), $3.5 million is a bit pricey for a middle reliever. They could probably resign him for less than that.

Also, they named Don Mattingly the hitting coach, Willie Randolph the bench coach, Lee Mazzilli the third base coach, and Luis Sojo the first base coach. I think all of these are solid decisions, getting Randolph off of third base might be an important positive improvement next season, and it likely means that Randolph will soon be the first black manager of the Yankees. I don't know how Mattingly will be as a hitting coach, but 1) he's a man that the players will respect, and listen to, and 2) let's be realistic, he's the type of hitter we hope Soriano becomes. Sure, it would be great if he became Hank Aaron, or Sammy Sosa, but more important than walking is that he stop striking out on bad pitches. Mattingly didn't walk, but he didn't strike out, because he swung at pitches he could hit, and hit them hard. Soriano can succeed with that approach.

And speaking of Soriano, let's move on to my overview of where the Yankees stand at second base.

While there were several disappointing offensive performances this postseason, the most putrid was that of Alfonso Soriano. For the entire playoffs, Soriano batted .225/.267/.296/.562, with one homer and a postseason record 26 Ks. Unlike Aaron Boone, his home run was meaningless, and didn't absolve any of his prior sins. Overall, Soriano did very little to win any postseason games for the Yankees, and much to lose them.

For some people, this was an "I told you so" moment, because it showed Soriano's hackiphilia at it's worst. For others, it was an eye opener, as they finally realized how fatal Soriano's flaw could be. Soriano became on of the main scapegoats this postseason, and many have called for him to be traded, or at least moved to the outfield.

As those of you who read "Moneyball" know, one of the reasons the A's have been successful is that they look at what a player can do for them, rather than what they can't do for them. What's important is not their style of play, but whether they can help the team win, and if they can, then they're worth having.

Alfonso Soriano is a player who can help the Yankees win. Yes, he has tremendous flaws in his game, he swings at everything, and not even the most stringent Soriano apologist is going to say that he's a good defensive player. From what I've read, it appears that the Yankees are blaming Soriano for these flaws, saying that he's lazy, and doesn't work hard to change. Perhaps, but perhaps it's poor coaching, too. Maybe Willie Randolph is good at tweaking infielders who are already good, but can't teach someone to play second. Maybe Rick Down could recognize flaws in the swing of an established player, but couldn't teach a kid how to look for his pitch. I get the impression from what I've heard and what I've seen that the Yankees have approached Soriano's plate discipline by demanding results, rather than pushing the process, saying that they want him to walk more and get on base more. And so he takes pitches. Not balls, just pitches, because you can't walk if you're swinging. And you'll walk more with this approach, but you'll also strike out looking a lot, and you won't hit the ball. Let me emphasize once again: the goal of plate discipline is not to draw walks, it's to get a good pitch to hit.

But even if he doesn't learn plate discipline, he's still got strengths: he's got tremendous power, and fantastic speed that he utilizes very well on the basepaths. But he's not a leadoff hitter, and perhaps not even a middle of the order hitter, either. Perhaps part of the problem with his hitting approach this year was that there were no palpable consequences for his hacking, he was inked at the top of the lineup, and if he was dropped down, he'd always go right back up, no matter ho he was hitting.

I'm wary of trading Soriano, or moving him to the outfield. If you make him an outfielder, you're risking the possibility that he'll be a lousy one, you're lessening his offensive value, and precluding yourself from adding another outfielder, one who can field well or hit great, and you have to sign a second baseman to replace Soriano, probably one who can field well, but with an inferior bat. If you trade him, you risk the possibility that Soriano could improve, and become a Hall of Fame caliber player. That's a risk with every transaction, but this one more than others, because he's halfway towards become that type of player.

If the Yankees are "stuck" with the same infield next season, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but some improvement would be nice. I previously advocated retaining Soriano, and also was opposed to the idea of trading Nick Johnson, but in the past few days, I've rethought those opinions.

See, with Johnson I've fallen into the trap of being loyal to a player over the best interests of the team. As a fan, there's nothing wrong with that, but I shouldn't have let it color my analysis. Johnson is already a fantastic hitter, and a good defensive player, whose flaws (catching low throws) can be corrected with good coaching (hey, if the A's turned Scott Hatteberg into a "Picking Machine", they can make Johnson better, too). I am almost positive that he will, if he stays healthy, become an elite offensive player. You don't want to give away the next Jason Giambi.

But if you've got an opportunity to make the team better overall, you have to take it. Yes, Johnson's a great hitter, but the Yankees already have Jason Giambi locked up at first base for several more years, and with Bernie Williams and Hideki Matsui in the fold next season, it would be nice to move one of them to DH to open up centerfield and right field for improvement.

And so, I conjured up this plan of action for the postseason, that involves trading both Johnson and Soriano, as well as maybe signing the full limit of 3 Type A Free Agents. At first, I wondered whether the Yankees would be willing to increase their payroll to do this, but I've decided 1) whenever you ask how high the Yankees' payroll can go, the answer always seems to be "higher", and 2) If they don't make these moves, and they don't win, or nearly lose, George will spend money next offseason anyway. If he's going to do it next season, it would be wise to do it now, when it's a buyer's market and there are some excellent players available.

1) Re-sign Andy Pettitte. Above all else, this is the most important move for the Yankees to make this offseason. Houston's trade of Wagner worries me, because it may free up the payroll room needed to sign Pettitte, but the Yankees clearly need Andy back in the fold next season.

2) Trade Alfonso Soriano to Kansas City for Carlos Beltran. This is a move that Kansas City seems open to, and I think it would be a good move for both teams. Beltran is a better player than Soriano, he gets on base more, runs just as well, and while he doesn't have as much power as Soriano, he is an excellent defensive center fielder. For Kansas City, trading for Soriano makes sense, though. Beltran is about to become a free agent, with almost zero chance of coming back, while Soriano is just entering his arbitration years. Soriano fills a need for the Royals at second base, and you can also see him having great offensive seasons at Kauffman Stadium. For the Yankees, it improves their outfield defense, and also adds a player who moves the lineup along, something Soriano does not.

3) Trade Nick Johnson and Jeff Weaver (and pick up most of Weaver's salary) to Montreal for Javier Vazquez or Jose Vidro. This is tricky. First of all, I think this would be a good move on the part of the Expos, they'd be getting someone who will probably be a great hitter (and in three years, major trade bait) and basically two risk-free seasons of Jeff Weaver, who can and has been a very good pitcher, for one of their prospective free agents. However, Minaya probably doesn't appreciate Johnson's value, and Weaver is seen as almost damaged goods, and even if the Yankees paid his entire salary, the Expos might think they're doing the Yankees a favor merely by taking him. If there's any way to make this trade, if there's a prospect somewhere the Yankees' farm system that Minaya would take, make the trade, because freeing up DH is crucial, and using Johnson to fill a hole in the rotation or second base is, as well.

4) Sign Vladimir Guerrero. It might be tough to get him to come to New York, and you might have to "settle" for Gary Sheffield (horrors!), but if there is any way, any amount of money that can get Vlad to New York, do it. He's not only great, but he's young, and if you have him in right and Beltran in center, you've gone from having a hideously bad outfield defense to having a good one, while improving your offense, too.

5a) If Johnson is traded for Vazquez, sign Luis Castillo. Now, Luis Castillo isn't exactly the Yankees' type of offensive player. He has no power, hits the ball on the ground, and most of his value is tied up in speed. But, he does get on base at a good rate (because of his speed), and his defense is excellent, which is the key here. Adding Vlad allows the Yankees to take an offensive hit at second base, and Castillo's defense helps close up that hole in the middle infield, and makes Jeter's defense almost bearable. This move would make the Yankees' infield defense, on the whole, okay. If the Marlins non-tender him, signing Mike Lowell and moving Boone to second might be a good move as well--or even non-tendering Boone and signing both Lowell and Castillo, but that would be too much.

5b) If Johnson is traded for Vidro, sign Bartolo Colon. No, he's not an ace. Yes, he's going to get overpaid. But he's a very good pitcher, and basically, you're trying to replace Roger Clemens. I might even make this move if they traded for Vazquez, but again, that would be superfluous.

Then move Bernie Williams to DH, where he can stay healthy and hopefully return to his 2002 form, or at least near there. Also, since Bernie hits lefties better than righties, and Matsui vice-versa, you can platoon them in left in NL cities, without losing much offensively (perhaps gaining something).

You've improved your offense, you've improved your defense, and you've built an excellent rotation--and I've advocated keeping the bullpen intact for the most part, re-signing White and Heredia, bringing up Choate and Bean, and looking to the return of Karsay for improvement. The key is making the trade with Montreal, which will be tricky, but I think it can be done.

Of course, none of it will be. I expect the Yankees to sign Sheffield, Colon if Pettitte leaves, overpay a relief pitcher, and have all the same problems next year they had this year.

BTW, here would be the Yankees' lineup and rotation, if they made all these moves (and made the Vazquez trade, not the Vidro trade, and all the superfluous ones, as well, if Lowell were non-tendered)

SS Jeter
DH Williams
1B Giambi
RF Guerrero
C Posada
3B Lowell
CF Beltran
LF Matsui
2B Castillo

SP Mussina
SP Vazquez
SP Pettitte
SP Colon
SP Contreras

Yeah, that would be wrong. Am I evil for envisioning a way that the Yankees could assemble that roster, without "screwing" anybody over?

--posted at 12:03 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 31, 2003

Looking forward: First Base
by Larry Mahnken

After the Yankees lost the fourth game of the World Series, Joe Torre juggled the lineup, benching Alfonso Soriano and playing Nick Johnson instead of Jason Giambi. When David Wells had to leave after one inning, the bullpen gave up six runs, enough to hold of New York for a 6-4 win. Soriano and Giambi came in to pinch hit in the later innings, though Giambi was inexplicably sent to the plate with nobody on in the ninth, instead of the bases loaded in the seventh. After the series, some of the blame for the loss was directed towards Giambi, who some claimed "begged" out of the lineup--although other reports are that Torre pulled him after seeing him limping. Jon Heyman and Mike Lupica have played this up as a character flaw, Lupica wrote that an another Yankee said that Paul O'Neill would have hidden the injury from Torre. Therefore, Jason Giambi is not Paul O'Neill, and thus is not a winner. Gotta dump him.

Jon Heyman actually suggested that. He also said that Giambi went from "zero" to "sub-zero" this postseason. Because he didn't actually hit those two home runs off of Pedro.

Giambi didn't have a bad postseason by any standard except the one he's set for himself. He only hit .237, but he had a .357 OBP and a .849 OPS--including those 2 HRs vs. Pedro. Derek "Clutch" Jeter had an .856 OPS this postseason. Giambi did fine. But he usually does better. Hell, he was better last season, with a 1.071 OPS in the ALDS.

Why didn't he do better this postseason? Well, it wasn't his character, it was that knee, which has been bothering him all season, and contributed greatly to his worst offensive season since 1998. Of course, he was still one of the five best hitters in the league, but if he had been healthy, his batting average would have been closer to .300, and his OPS would have been around 1.000. Perhaps Giambi might have had surgery on the knee earlier in the season had Jeter, Johnson and Williams not been injured, and perhaps have come back strong for the postseason, but it wasn't an option that they could afford (and he probably wouldn't have fully recovered this season, if ever).

The media needs to label someone as the goat when expectations are not met, and I guess Aaron Boone and Alfonso Soriano weren't enough for them. But not only is Jason Giambi not one of the things that's wrong with the Yankees, he's one of the things that's right with them.

Sure, it would be nice if he wasn't locked up through his decline, but if that's the price you need to pay to have one of the best hitters in the game in the middle of your lineup, I think it's one worth paying. Unless the injury to Giambi's knee is much worse than currently believed, his OPS should be above .950 again next season.

Problem is, Giambi isn't a very good defensive player--not so much with catching the ball, but with throwing it. Defense isn't a crucial asset for a first baseman (although Shredder at Baseball Primer has pointed out that winning teams seem to usually have good defensive first basemen, but it's probably just a coincidence), but it makes it likely that Giambi will be the Yankees' designated hitter as long as Nick Johnson is on the team. In yet another unexplained correlation, Giambi's career OPS is .116 higher as a first baseman than as a DH, and was .205 higher in 2003. I don't claim to know why this is, or if it's real. Nick Johnson was better at first base than at DH this season, too, so I don't think it's worth playing Giambi at first base to find out.

As for Nick Johnson, I think he is going to be a great, great hitter, and he's already a pretty damn good one. His .894 OPS was third among American League first basemen this season, behind only Carlos Delgado and Jason Giambi, and his .318 EqA was ninth in the league, tied with Jorge Posada and Frank Thomas, better than Magglio Ordonez, Bret Boone and David Ortiz.

And Johnson is only 25, he's likely to get better than that. Earlier in the season, he was better than that, leading MLB in walks, and prompting Billy Beane to call him "another Jason Giambi". But then he broke a bone, and missed nearly 2Â½ months. The injury didn't seem to affect him, he was dominant with a 1.024 OPS in August, but was dreadful after that, putting up a dreadful .708 OPS in September and a .634 OPS in the postseason. But as terrible as that was, it doesn't concern me tremendously--good player have bad slumps sometimes--what does concern me is his odd proclivity for getting hurt, especially in the hands. He's missed time in three of the past four seasons with hand or wrist injuries, and I don't know whether it's bad luck or a harbinger of things to come. If Johnson stays healthy, I think it's likely that within the next two seasons, he'll be putting up numbers similar to those that Jason Giambi has put up in the past five. And even if he doesn't improve, he gets on base more than 40% of the time. I think I can live with a decade of that.

If the Yankees want to add a bat on the bench (and I think they should), they should keep switch-hitting International League MVP Fernando Seguignol on the roster. His huge numbers in AAA probably had a lot more to do with having mastered the minors rather than anything else, but he's a pretty good hitter--probably better than Ruben Sierra--has good power, and can fill in adequately in case Nick Johnson does get hurt again. He's certainly be better than last year's backup first baseman, Todd Zeile.

The Yankees don't need to make any moves at first base, and there's probably not any moves they can make that would make them better there, anyway. If the Yankees could get Carlos Beltran for Nick Johnson (they can't--Mike Sweeney), then I'd say claim Manny Ramirez and make that trade. It's unlikely the Yankees will get equal value for Nick in a trade, so I'm against them making any moves with him other than that one, and I don't think they will.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 30, 2003

Manny Ramirez a Yankee?
by Larry Mahnken

Art Martone, the brilliant sports editor of the Providence Journal

, reports that the Red Sox have placed outfielder Manny Ramirez on irrevocable waivers. That means that if a team claims him, and has a higher waiver priority than any other team that claims him, they've got him. The Red Sox can't pull him back.

The Yankees are currently discussing whether or not to claim Ramirez. On one hand, it might seem like a no-brainer, Manny Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball. He's due nearly $100 million over the next five seasons, and it will cost the Yankees more than that because of the luxury tax. If the Yankees take Ramirez, it means that a) they won't be signing either Vlad or Sheffield, b) they won't be improving their defense, and c) they're basically giving Vlad to Boston.

While Ramirez is overpaid in the current market, and it does hurt them in some ways, it does mean that they don't have to give up a draft pick to sign a right fielder, whatever that's worth. I really don't know whether the Yankees should claim Ramirez, I guess it depends on whether or not they think they can sign Vlad. If they can, then I'd let Ramirez pass, but if they're unsure, then I'd grab him.

Interestingly, if the Yankees do grab Ramirez, it places an enormous amount of pressure on Boston to sign Guerrero. The Red Sox are not the only team that's going to be trying to sign him, and MLB might want to keep him in Montreal to increase the resale value of the Expos. It should be interesting to read the media reaction once this gets out.

Update: ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that the Yankees will not claim Ramirez. We'll see how accurate this report is.

--posted at 12:57 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

Looking forward
by Larry Mahnken

So, I took a few days off. I needed a few days off.

It hurts to lose. It doesn't matter how often your team wins, losing still hurts.

Well, it's time to move on. The Yankees lost, the lost to a team that they're better than, and a team that they played better than. They were in control of the series, and had a chance to put the Marlins away, but they couldn't get the big hit, Joe Torre put the wrong pitcher into the game, David Wells's poor work ethic caught up to him at the worst time, and then they were dominated by an excellent young pitcher, and they didn't do what was needed to get him out of the game. More than being beaten, they lost, and it sucks.

It happens. That's the way the postseason works, that's the way baseball works. There's changes that need to be made, but an overhaul would be a bit extreme. They didn't lose because of some character flaw, but because they didn't get hits at the right time. The Yankees could bring in the best player at every position, and it still could happen again.

But changes need to be made, improvements need to be made. The don't need to be made because the Yankees lost the World Series, they would need to be made even if they won. Boston is going to get better, Toronto is going to get better, and if the Yankees stay at the same level, or get worse, making the playoffs is not going to be a sure thing. If they want to make the playoffs next season, if they want to win a title next season, they're going to have to make moves to get better.

Over the next few days, I'm going to outline what I think the Yankees should do in the offseason with their roster. For Bryan Smith's Wait 'Til Next Year blog, I answered some of his questions, and I caught some flak from a couple of Primates for my comments that the Yankees should try to sign not only one of the big free agent outfielders but also one of the big free agent pitchers. I didn't make this suggestion because having the best players on the Yankees is "some kind of birthright", but because I think the Yankees have as much right to sign those players as everyone else. It doesn't matter that the Yankees have won more of their fair share of World Championships, it's still fair for them to try to win more. (By the way, the Yankees would have to go over 620 years without a title to balance the scales. Seriously.)

I don't expect the Yankees to make most of the moves I suggest, and they might not make any of them. They might not even be the best moves: feel free to contribute your ideas in the comments.

Today, I'll look at the catchers:

The Yankees have Jorge Posada signed for the next few years (he can void his contract after next season, but with him being due at least $21 million over the final three years of the contract, it's unlikely that he'll do that), so they don't have to worry at all about a starting catcher. Posada was the best offensive catcher in the American League in 2003, and a legitimate MVP candidate. At 32, a decline is inevitable, and his defense is not strong, but he should still remain one of the top catchers in the game, and be a huge asset to the team.

Where the Yankees have room to improve is with their backup catcher. John Flaherty filled that role this past season, and while his OPS looked pretty good for a catcher, that was mostly because of his 2 HR game in Baltimore this August, for the most part, he was the same weak-hitting catcher he's always been. Joe Torre has always liked the glove men as backup catcher, so they might bring back Flaherty or someone like him, but it's important to remember the price the Yankees paid for having him on the roster. In Game Four of the World Series, the Yankees pinch-ran David Dellucci for Jorge Posada when he was the tying run on first with two outs. It was the right move to make, that run had to score. But when that run did score, they had to put John Flaherty into the lineup. Flaherty came up twice in extra innings, went 0 for 2, and the Yankees ultimately lost the game, and the series. If the Yankees had a good hitting backup catcher, they might have won the game, and if they had won that game, they would almost certainly have been World Champions.

A better hitting catcher would have helped the Yankees during the regular season, too. When Flaherty gave Posada a day off, it left a hole in the Yankees' lineup, and often they would have to bring Posada in to pinch hit and catch when the game was close in the late innings, and Flaherty came up in a clutch spot. The lack of production from Flaherty might also have dissuaded Torre from giving Posada enough time off, and while Posada kept hitting in the second half, he was also an offensive zero in the ALDS and World Series (though he was great in the ALCS). A better hitting catcher might give Posada a game off a week, and keep him fresh for October, and also help him maintain his offensive value for a couple more seasons.

My suggestion would be to sign free agent catcher Todd Pratt, who played with Philadelphia the past couple of seasons. Pratt isn't much with the glove, but he can hit quite well. He likely can be signed for about the same the Yankees were paying for Flaherty this past season, and in addition to giving Posada time off without being a major hit to the lineup, he can also be used as a pinch-hitter.

The factors that decide whether the Yankees can bring in Pratt are whether Philadelphia brings him back (and if he wants to come back), and if Joe Torre is willing to have a backup catcher who can hit but not field. I think it's likely that he'll go back to Philly, and even if he doesn't that the Yankees will bring in another weak-hitting catcher. The Game Four situation is unlikely to happen again next year, and it didn't really cost the Yankees the World Series by itself, anyway, so backing up Posada with a similar player to Flaherty won't kill them, but the benefits of a player like Pratt: more rest for Posada, less of an offensive hit when Posada sits, and a deeper bench makes it, in my opinion, a move that would make the Yankees a better team.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 26, 2003

Not with a bang, but a whimper: Florida 2 , New York 0
by Larry Mahnken

Since becoming a hardcore Yankees fan in 1991, I have seen my favorite team win four World Championships, six American League Pennants, make the playoffs nine consecutive years, and be robbed of a playoff appearance and a possible World Championship by the strike. I came in just as the Yankees were climbing out of the cellar (although I had always been a fan, just not devoted), and I witnessed their entire rise to glory. I have, most definitely, been spoiled.

Maybe I take defeat harder than the average fan, because it's something that I haven't been used to. Maybe all fans take defeat as hard as I do. In 1995, I was miserable, because of how they lost, and how sure I was at the time that they'd never win a title. '97 was, at the time, depressing and frustrating, but I've since buried that loss, as they followed it up with a perfect season, and two more titles after that. I was miserable again in 2001, because of how very close they were, and the manner in which they lost it. Last season was more rage than anything else, as they got their brains beaten out by the Angels. This season, the beat the Twins fairly handily, which I expected. They had their hands full with the Red Sox, which I also expected, and at the moment when I was sure they were going to lose, they won, and I was joyful. Now they've lost the World Series, and I'm not angry, I'm a bit sad, but mostly, I'm frustrated.

The Yankees were the better team in this World Series. The better team does not always win a short series though. The Braves were better than the Yankees in '96, the Indians were perhaps better than the Braves in '95. The Yankees defeated two superior teams in the 2001 American League playoffs, before falling to a team that they were fairly evenly matched with. They beat a team that was probably better than them in the ALCS. The 1960 Pirates beat the Yankees, the 1953 Yankees beat the Dodgers, the '54 Giants beat the Indians. The '69 Mets beat the Orioles, the 1906 White Sox beat the 116-win Cubs. I could go on and on about how often the inferior team wins a postseason series. That the Marlins won this series does not make them the better team. But that also doesn't matter, because they did win the series, and they do get the trophy, and the rings, and the flag to fly. And that, in the end, is what matters. Goliath didn't go home and say, well, I lost to David, but I still know that I'm stronger than him! Because he was dead. Dead men don't gloat, and pennant winners who lose to inferior teams in the World Series don't gloat, either.

I won't write much today about how and why the Yankees lost--I probably won't write much about that for quite a while. They played poorly, they failed to capitalize on the many, many opportunities they had, while Florida seemed to capitalize on every one they had. They were only outplayed in one game--last night's game, but they gave away three games in the first five, and did themselves in.

And so that's it, the season is over. The Yankees will go out and sign one or two big free agents, probably make a trade. Assuredly, some mediot will write about how the Yankees have ruined baseball with their buying of titles, and how small market teams can't compete, yadda yadda yadda. Of course, a small market team won in 2001, and a mid market team whose lease makes them essentially a small market team won this year, and of course, Bud Selig has stopped preaching the doctrine of competitive imbalance and is trying to take credit for the success of Florida, saying the new CBA made it possible (it did no such thing). Whatever. People who write that should be fired. It never was true, and now the irrefutable evidence of it's falsity exists. Small market teams can compete just fine; small payroll teams can compete when the circumstances are right. Go ahead and let the Yankees buy up the free agent market. Take note: the Yankees didn't sign a single premier free agent from 1996-2000. Since signing Mike Mussina in late 2000, they haven't won a single title.

The Yankees won't collapse. They're old, they're declining, but 1964 isn't just around the corner. The collapse will be a few 85-win seasons, just out of contention--if, of course, it happens at all. They'll contend for a title again next year, but it'll be tougher. Boston and Toronto will be better, and the Yankees might not even make it out of the East.

But let's talk about that tomorrow, or next week, we've got a few months to bitch before they play again. The 2003 season is over, but the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog isn't out of stuff to write--I think. Especially with the Yankees, you know that there will be a lot to talk about in the offseason. Although I hope to, I might not be able to write everyday, but I'll try, and I'll keep the site regularly updated, and I'll write about any important story involving the Yankees (and some that don't).

I started this blog as a way to put my opinions about my favorite team and sport out there for people to read. Some of you liked my style of writing, some of you liked my analysis, and some of you hated me, although I'm not sure why I'm worth hating. I thank you all for reading, and I hope that you return regularly during the offseason, and that I can make your visits here worthwhile. I'd like to offer special thanks to some people who have particularly encouraged me in my writing: Art Martone, Jay Jaffe, Alex Belth, Aaron Gleeman, "Repoz", and everyone in the Yankees Game Chatters on Baseball Primer this year, all of whom I consider my friends. Also, I'd like to mention Dan Szymborski, who didn't actually do anything, but who said I've never mentioned him on the blog. Well, now I have.

I'd also like to give personal thanks to my friends and family: Dad, Mom and my sister, Beth; I love you all. My friends Stef, Bella, Mikey, Kosko, Chrissy, Tyler, Rob, Bill, and Jeff Patrick, who hates baseball with a passion, and who I'm sure will torture me mercilessly about the Yankees' loss, but has encouraged me in my writing nonetheless.

Sorry for all that personal crap that you likely don't care about, and if I forgot to mention you, well, now you know that I don't care. Just kidding. If I forgot you, I'm sorry.

--posted at 12:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

October 25, 2003

Last Dance
by Larry Mahnken

I look at tonight's Game Six with anticipation and dread. I don't feel confident that they'll win this game, or certain that they'll lose it, either. I know they can win, I know they should win, but they should also have won all five of these games, and they lost three of them. So much for should.

I dread defeat. I can visualize that moment in the postgame, where Bud Selig hands the World Series trophy over to Jeff Loria, and in that instant, as they both touch it, that trophy becomes a conduit through which so much evil passes that it explodes in a blinding flash of red light, and breaks open a vortex in the Visitors' Clubhouse, destroying all of civilization, and through which pass the terrible minions of Satan, bringing down 10 million years of darkness upon mankind for allowing such evil to not only exist, but triumph.

I could deal with the Cubs winning, I could even be willing to accept, eventually, a Red Sox victory. And I have nothing against the Florida Marlins or they're devoted fan(s). Jack McKeon is a man deserving of a title, and he should never have been cast aside by the Cincinnati Reds for Bob Boone. He has done an excellent job.

But Jeff Loria is evil. To non-Yankees fans, this series has been likened to the Eastern Front in World War II--who do you root for, Stalin or Hitler? It cannot be disputed that Steinbrenner is an egomaniacal asshole. He fires people for minor indiscretions, and is brutal in handing out blame for the team's on-field failures. But he tries to win, and that, above all else, is his motivation in running the team. He could make many millions more if he fielded consistently strong teams that didn't win titles, but still filled Yankee Stadium with fans, while costing tens of millions of dollars less in payroll (Connie Mack's stated desire for his teams). That tact would even have helped fend off Bud Selig's drastic revenue sharing demands, and perhaps saved him tens of millions more. But while he's a good businessman, and won't risk losing money, he also puts winning above maximizing his profit, and tries to put the best team on the field that he can.

Jeff Loria, on the other hand, destroyed baseball in Montreal. Taking advantage of the revenue sharing program in place, he invested as little money as possible in the team, instead collecting massive revenue sharing checks year after year--making the safe profit, or at worst taking a minimal loss. He maneuvered the rest of the Expos' ownership out of the way, taking over the majority of the team, then proceeded to destroy the fan base in Montreal, while simultaneously demanding that the taxpayers finance a brand new stadium for him to field crappy teams in. When MLB bought the team from him with the intention of contracting it before last season, he insisted on being allowed to purchase another team, and so MLB fixed the sale of the Red Sox to John Henry's group to free up the Marlins for him.

Now, I know what you're thinking, the Marlins won the pennant this season, Loria can't be that bad, he's obviously committed to winning. No, he's obviously committed to looking good to the public in South Florida, who he will press to buy him a new stadium, and is also trying to put forward a good image in defense of himself in the RICO suit brought against him and Bud Selig by Loria's former partners in Montreal. Have no fear, Marlins fans, in a few years--shiny new stadium or not--Loria will proceed to operate the Marlins in the same manner in which he did the Expos: don't spend money, and cash the big fat Yankees checks. Like anyone, he enjoys winning, but he enjoys money more.

But while I dread defeat, I can see victory. The Yankees go into the last game with the pitchers who recorded victories in both of their wins: Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina. Both were not just good, but dominant, and should be able to keep the Yankees in the game. Pettitte is streaky, and if he goes out and throws a clunker, the Yankees are dead. But I think Pettitte can give them the strong performance they need to survive.

What is comes down to is whether or not the Yankees can score off of Beckett and Pavano. McKeon is taking a tremendous gamble: Beckett is a fastball pitcher, and has never started on short rest. He is less likely to be dominant, and less likely to go deep (Florida's bullpen has a 5.29 ERA in this series), although he did throw 4 innings of 1-hit ball on two days' rest in Game Seven of the NLCS. Pavano was also excellent in Game Four, but will also be going on short rest coming off of 115 pitches. This strategy of using his two best pitchers on short rest would be an excellent one if the Marlins were facing elimination tonight, as it maximizes their chances of winning both games, but they're not facing elimination, and the strategy of using Beckett on full rest in Game 7, and Redman tonight maximizes their chances of winning one game.

Or does it? After all, Redman is not a particularly consistent pitcher, and he wasn't fooling the Yankees at all in Game Two. Redman might get torched if he starts tonight, and it won't matter how Pettitte pitches. Then it would be up to Beckett against Mussina, and even if Beckett totally shuts down the Yankees for nine innings, Moose is capable--perhaps more capable than Beckett--of shutting down the Marlins. The Marlins aren't facing Pedro Martinez in Game Seven, but they are viewing that matchup as if they were. They don't want to have to beat Mussina, and so their strategy is to do all they can to avoid a Game Seven, and win tonight. With Beckett and Pavano going in the two games, you increase your chances of winning tonight--it puts much more pressure on Pettitte right from the start, as he knows he has to be almost perfect, or he may be facing elimination, and if the Yankees do win, Pavano seems nearly as likely of outdueling Mussina as Beckett is.

There's no way to say that the Yankees have an advantage in tonight's game, or in this series. They don't, they're up against the wall, and the Marlins have to win only one game to be World Champions. If the Yankees start taking advantage of their opportunities, or at least work the pitch count to get Beckett out early, they should be able to score more than enough runs to win tonight, even if Petitte doesn't pitch well. And if they do win tonight, then they do have the advantage, as the Marlins are facing elimination against a superior pitcher and lineup.

But they have to win tonight, or it's literally over. They can, and they should, but like I said, should means nothing tonight. Either they do or they don't, there's no way to rationalize defeat.

--posted at 12:01 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

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