Larry Mahnken and SG's

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

"Hey, it's free!"


The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has moved!  Our new home is:
http://www.replacementlevel.com

Featuring:
Larry Mahnken
SG
sjohnny
TVerik
Sean McNally
Fabian McNally
John Brattain


This is an awesome FREE site, where you can win money and gift certificates with no skill involved! If you're bored, I HIGHLY recommend checking it out!



Web
yankeefan.blogspot.com

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


March 20, 2005


More Diamond Mind Sims - What do two different projection systems say?
by SG

This post is bumping two of Fabian's prospect posts down, so make sure you scroll down and read his writeups on Sean Henn and Estee Harris.

A couple of months ago, I posted the results of 100 Diamond Mind simulations that I ran with Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection disk for Diamond Mind baseball, which can be found at Baseball Think Factory.

Since then, there have been some roster changes, so I set up my computer to re-run 1000 more with the latest build of ZiPS. Here were the *results for those 1000 seasons.


ZiPS
High Low
Team W L RF RA DIV WC W W
American League

East
Boston Red Sox 96 66 933 762 678.7 210.0 117 79
New York Yankees 91 71 867 772 275.7 379.5 115 71
Baltimore Orioles 82 80 838 829 26.3 90.0 103 59
Toronto Blue Jays 81 81 788 782 18.3 77.0 98 63
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 72 90 707 805 1.0 7.8 90 53

Central
Minnesota Twins 81 81 784 787 378.5 6.3 99 58
Chicago White Sox 79 83 783 809 257.8 6.0 101 60
Cleveland Indians 79 83 803 818 255.5 4.5 100 58
Detroit Tigers 75 87 788 835 99.7 2.8 94 54
Kansas City Royals 68 94 750 894 8.5 2.0 91 48

West
Oakland Athletics 88 74 829 749 450.5 77.3 107 67
Los Angeles Angels 88 74 831 774 417.5 82.0 106 68
Seattle Mariners 81 81 796 794 110.0 46.2 100 62
Texas Rangers 75 87 825 896 22.0 8.5 96 54

National League
East
Philadelphia Phillies 90 72 773 689 453.7 137.8 110 60
New York Mets 88 74 759 699 315.7 162.3 109 67
Atlanta Braves 82 80 758 749 118.8 88.3 105 62
Florida Marlins 81 81 713 703 65.5 75.8 99 62
Washington Nationals 80 82 689 697 46.3 34.8 101 58

Central
St. Louis Cardinals 98 64 786 634 929.5 34.5 116 81
Chicago Cubs 84 78 742 699 63.0 207.6 102 58
Milwaukee Brewers 76 86 705 751 2.5 31.2 96 58
Houston Astros 73 89 704 788 3.0 10.0 94 55
Cincinnati Reds 73 89 748 819 2.0 8.0 92 52
Pittsburgh Pirates 68 94 671 794 0.0 2.0 89 41

West
Los Angeles Dodgers 94 68 756 655 841.8 29.2 113 75
San Diego Padres 83 79 745 718 112.0 122.8 103 66
Colorado Rockies 77 85 819 861 27.0 28.8 97 56
San Francisco Giants 75 87 751 807 11.3 17.3 92 55
Arizona Diamondbacks 74 88 728 801 7.8 9.8 94 50


ZiPS likes Boston in the AL East, hates the whole AL Central, sees a dogfight in the AL West, and the AL East runner-up as the wild card. It also likes Philadelphia and the Mets in the NL East, LOVES the Cardinals(which it did last year as well), really likes the Dodgers, and sees the Cubs as the most likely wild card.

The Yankee projection was a bit troubling to me, as they missed the postseason 35% of the time. Of course, a healthy Jason Giambi could make most of that difference up.

In addition to running these with ZiPS, I ran another 1000 with Diamond Mind's own projection disk. Here's some background information about Diamond Mind's projection system. The *results for those sims were:


Diamond Mind
High Low
Team W L RF RA DIV WC W W
American League

East
New York Yankees 97 65 893 735 573.8 315.5 119 75
Boston Red Sox 95 67 920 765 407.3 451.0 118 77
Baltimore Orioles 82 80 834 829 17.3 68.7 103 62
Toronto Blue Jays 75 87 800 859 1.5 17.0 95 56
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 68 94 736 860 0.0 2.0 93 49

Central
Minnesota Twins 88 74 846 779 699.5 5.5 108 62
Chicago White Sox 79 83 811 836 116.0 13.5 97 61
Cleveland Indians 79 83 808 820 106.0 11.5 98 59
Detroit Tigers 76 86 813 859 67.0 9.5 94 58
Kansas City Royals 68 94 764 888 11.5 1.0 90 44

West
Oakland Athletics 86 76 867 809 425.5 36.8 108 66
Seattle Mariners 83 79 785 773 238.7 24.7 103 63
Los Angeles Angels 83 79 780 775 226.0 31.0 102 65
Texas Rangers 80 82 854 875 109.8 12.3 98 61

National League
East
Philadelphia Phillies 89 73 855 784 484.8 92.0 107 61
Atlanta Braves 86 76 785 734 276.8 97.6 107 64
Florida Marlins 81 81 752 747 103.0 54.6 98 60
New York Mets 81 81 777 773 97.7 47.6 102 61
Washington Nationals 78 84 747 784 37.7 24.8 96 59

Central
St. Louis Cardinals 103 59 879 670 981.0 10.0 121 83
Chicago Cubs 84 78 786 771 17.5 187.4 103 64
Houston Astros 77 85 760 813 0.0 25.8 94 55
Cincinnati Reds 72 90 776 853 1.5 6.3 91 53
Pittsburgh Pirates 71 91 720 804 0.0 5.0 92 49
Milwaukee Brewers 70 92 716 818 0.0 2.0 88 51

West
Los Angeles Dodgers 90 72 807 726 450.8 172.5 109 71
San Francisco Giants 90 72 863 772 445.8 173.8 109 71
San Diego Padres 83 79 786 762 101.3 97.0 109 59
Arizona Diamondbacks 69 93 792 909 1.0 2.0 91 50
Colorado Rockies 69 93 845 978 1.0 1.5 91 50


In the only league that really matters, the Yankees were about 6 wins better on average, and made the postseason 89% of the time. Minnesota projected as a stronger favorite in the Central, Oakland projected as better than Los Angeles of Anaheim of Orange County of California of the United States of North America, but worse overall. Again the AL East runner-up looks like the most likely wild card.

In the inferior league, Philadelphis still projected as the favorite, although Atlanta improved and the Mets plummeted by about eight wins. So Mets fans can take their ZiPS-induced delusions of grandeur with a big grain of salt. San Francisco improved the most of any team, and looks about even with Los Angeles according to Diamond Mind's projection disk. Again the Cubs look like the team with the best chance for the wild card.

*For both sets of runs, W = average wins, L = average losses, RF = average Runs For, RA = average Runs Allowed, Div = division titles won, WC = wild cards won, and High and low W are self-explanatory. I kept ties in there, giving partial credit, which is why those numbers are not all integers.

Upon noticing the divergent results for several teams, I compared the two sets of data.


ZiPS - DMB Combined
Avg Avg Total Total High Low
Team W RF RA W L DIV WC Wins Wins

American League
East
Baltimore Orioles 0 4 0 82 80 43.6 158.7 103 59
Boston Red Sox 1 13 -3 96 66 1086.0 661.0 118 77
New York Yankees -6 -26 37 94 68 849.5 695.0 119 71
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 4 -29 -55 70 92 1.0 9.8 93 49
Toronto Blue Jays 6 -12 -77 78 84 19.8 94.0 98 56

Central
Chicago White Sox 0 -28 -27 79 83 373.8 19.5 101 60
Cleveland Indians 0 -5 -2 79 83 361.5 16.0 100 58
Detroit Tigers -1 -25 -24 76 86 166.7 12.3 94 54
Kansas City Royals 0 -14 6 68 94 20.0 3.0 91 44
Minnesota Twins -7 -62 8 84 78 1078.0 11.8 108 58

West
Los Angeles Angels 5 51 -1 85 77 643.5 113.0 106 65
Oakland Athletics 2 -38 -60 87 75 876.0 114.1 108 66
Seattle Mariners -2 11 21 82 80 348.7 70.9 103 62
Texas Rangers -5 -29 21 77 85 131.8 20.8 98 54

National League
East
Atlanta Braves -4 -27 15 84 78 395.6 185.9 107 62
Florida Marlins 0 -39 -44 81 81 168.5 130.4 99 60
New York Mets 7 -18 -74 85 77 413.4 209.9 109 61
Philadelphia Phillies 1 -82 -95 89 73 938.5 229.8 110 60
Washington Nationals 2 -58 -87 79 83 84.0 59.6 101 58

Central
Chicago Cubs 0 -44 -72 84 78 80.5 395.0 103 58
Cincinnati Reds 1 -28 -34 73 89 3.5 14.3 92 52
Houston Astros -4 -56 -25 75 87 3.0 35.8 94 55
Milwaukee Brewers 6 -11 -67 73 89 2.5 33.2 96 51
Pittsburgh Pirates -3 -49 -10 69 93 0.0 7.0 92 41
St. Louis Cardinals -5 -93 -36 100 62 1910.5 44.5 121 81

West
Arizona Diamondbacks 5 -64 -108 72 90 8.8 11.8 94 50
Colorado Rockies 8 -26 -117 73 89 28.0 30.3 97 50
Los Angeles Dodgers 4 -51 -71 92 70 1292.6 201.7 113 71
San Diego Padres 0 -41 -44 83 79 213.3 219.8 109 59
San Francisco Giants -15 -112 35 83 79 457.1 191.1 109 55


Here, W, RF, and RA are the difference between what ZiPS projected and what Diamond Mind projected, The last six columns are the combined totals of the 2000 runs. Obviously, the most striking difference was in San Francisco's projection. I also noticed that Diamond Mind was far more favorable to the Yankees. If you look at the differences in RF and RA, that will give you some insight into why teams performed differently in the two runs.

For example, the Yankees projected to score 26 more runs in Diamond Mind, and allow 37 fewer, an overall run differential improvement of 63. Statistically, 10 runs is roughly equivalent to a win, so the Yankees 6 win improvement from ZiPS to Diamond Mind is due to Diamond Mind having a more favorable projection for both their offense and defense(including pitching).

One of the biggest differences that I am aware of between the two projection systems is that ZiPS uses Voros McCracken's controversial DIPS theory when projecting pitchers. DIPS basically focuses on a pitcher's strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, and assumes that their control of hits on balls in play(non-homer hits and outs) is minimal. Tom Tippet of Diamond Mind did his own research on this theory, and concluded that pitchers "have more influence over in-play hit rates than McCracken suggested", so he uses a pitcher's hits allowed totals in his projections.

ZiPS also uses comparisons with similar players in building its projections, whereas Diamond Mind uses a Marcel type projection system which only focuses on what a player himself has done. I am also pretty sure that ZiPS is harsher to older players than Diamond Mind, which would be another reason why San Francisco and the Yankees would project better in the system. I would tend to give Diamond Mind a little more faith because they know the intricacies of their game when they are building projections, not to take anything away from Dan Szymborski, because he does a great service by building his disk and providing it for free.

I always caution about reading too much into projections. Projection systems can only use available data to calculate what a player will do going forward. These are still athletes playing games, and their true talent level can always change. A pitcher can learn a new pitch, or just find themselves (look at Jason Schmidt prior to joining San Francisco for example). Also, injuries always turns out to be a big factor, and Diamond Mind uses a random injury system which would even that out over a large number of sims. I just like running these to get a baseline feel for how the season would play out if teams and players do what they're supposed to do, which never happens in baseball.

I think the more data you have the better, so I'd look at the combination of what the two systems project.

Anyway, in a couple of weeks, none of these things will really matter all that much. Of course, to me that's one of the many great things about the game. First pitch in two weeks.