Larry Mahnken and SG's

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

"Hey, it's free!"


The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has moved!  Our new home is:
http://www.replacementlevel.com

Featuring:
Larry Mahnken
SG
sjohnny
TVerik
Sean McNally
Fabian McNally
John Brattain


This is an awesome FREE site, where you can win money and gift certificates with no skill involved! If you're bored, I HIGHLY recommend checking it out!



Web
yankeefan.blogspot.com

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


January 29, 2005


100 Diamond Mind Sims with ZiPS projections
by SG

The last couple of seasons, I've been running 100 simulations of Diamond Mind Baseball using various projection disks. Although projections are not always valid, I find these interesting, just to see the shape of expectations for all teams if people perform as expected. I don't read too much into these results, because they don't account for injuries, over/under performance, or roster changes, but it's a good way to kill time waiting for the season to start. Diamond Mind does have injuries, but they vary from season to season.

Anyway, here are the results through 100 seasons with Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection disk.

								

Through 100 seasons
Avg High High
W L RF RA DIV WC Wins Losses

American League
East

Baltimore Orioles 76 86 819 866 0 2 90 103
Boston Red Sox 92 70 920 788 52 23 109 86
New York Yankees 91 71 905 794 43 25 111 85
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 75 87 762 833 1 2 88 102
Toronto Blue Jays 82 80 804 790 4 9 96 96

Central
Chicago White Sox 74 88 753 834 8 2 94 103
Cleveland Indians 74 88 799 847 10 0 94 105
Detroit Tigers 76 86 767 824 10 0 88 100
Kansas City Royals 69 93 779 912 1 0 80 103
Minnesota Twins 86 76 793 749 71 0 100 98

West
Anaheim Angels 84 78 808 781 19 11 96 91
Oakland Athletics 89 73 842 745 50 9 110 91
Seattle Mariners 85 77 810 780 22 13 103 90
Texas Rangers 81 81 843 852 9 4 98 96


National League
East

Atlanta Braves 81 81 766 761 4 11 95 97
Florida Marlins 87 75 761 708 23 14 98 88
New York Mets 87 75 775 710 19 19 103 90
Philadelphia Phillies 92 70 789 684 48 20 107 80
Washington Nationals 81 81 704 715 6 6 99 96

Central
Chicago Cubs 82 80 746 720 6 7 94 97
Cincinnati Reds 70 92 732 831 0 0 87 108
Houston Astros 76 86 688 752 0 1 89 100
Milwaukee Brewers 79 83 703 724 2 3 96 104
Pittsburgh Pirates 74 88 703 767 0 0 91 101
St. Louis Cardinals 96 66 781 641 92 4 110 81

West
Arizona Diamondbacks 65 97 674 822 0 0 82 114
Colorado Rockies 72 90 796 883 1 0 86 104
Los Angeles Dodgers 92 70 748 661 74 5 110 94
San Diego Padres 78 84 714 742 3 2 90 97
San Francisco Giants 84 78 773 739 22 8 101 94



Just like last year, Boston and New York appear to be very evenly matched, although both teams project to be slightly worse than last year. Toronto projects much better than I expected, especially with the loss of Delgado. What's troubling for Yankee fans is that they missed the playoffs 1/3 of the time in these runs. I still think it's unlikely that Boston and New York don't both make the playoffs, because the AL Central appears to be weak again this year, and no team in the AL West projects as a lock to win 90 games.

There's also some interesting stuff in the other divisions, where St. Louis, Minnesota, and Los Angeles look like good bets to win their divisions.

I usually run these again with Diamond Mind's projection disk, which comes out in spring training and will have the most up-to-date rosters. They also use a different type of projection system, which may affect the outcomes slightly.

Update: Here's a side by side comparison of the Yankees and Boston for each season (thanks to rilkefan for the suggestion).


Slightly Larger Version