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SG
sjohnny
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March 31, 2005

2005 RLYW Staff predictions
by SG

Predictions

Comments
Sean
Injuries fell Boston's rotation as Schilling never really gets going and Wells is average in the ballpark he once wanted burned down. Wade Miller doesn't throw a pitch in anger this season and Matt Clement is the de facto ace.

The Yanks finally post that 1000 run season that Gammons talked about last season. Mussina wins 20, along with Johnson and Kevin Brown throws 180 innings. Wright and Pavano are both slightly above average.

In the Central, Minnesota and Cleveland feast on the weak sisters in the division -Chicago and Kansas City-and both win over 90 games.

Out West, the Angels break out to a Mickey Mantle dream season: Jump out to a big lead, come out of the all-star break and win 10 or 15 in a row and coast home.

In the playoffs, Johan Santana dominates the Angels, winning three games - 1, 4 and 5 in relief. But the Yanks steamroll the Twinkies in the ALCS after Minnesota just runs outta gas.

Atlanta and Florida provide a great pennant race, finishing 1-2 in the league in wins. San Diego wins a watered-down and Barryless NL West. St. Louis is never really challenged.

In the playoffs, Florida's pitching quiets the Cards lineup and San Diego wins three games in Atlanta to beat the Braves. Florida's three aces of Burnett, Beckett and Willis dominate the Pads, who only win Peavy's two starts.

In the World Series, the Yankees exact revenge for 2003 and erase a painful 2004 with a drubbing of Florida in the Fall Classic.

TVerik
AL East: Boston. I feel it in my bones. Their pitching holds up, ours
doesn't.
AL Central: Cleveland. I don't see Santana extending his pitching from
great to historic by keeping this up.
AL West: Anaheim. I want to, but I can't pick any of the other
"contenders".
AL Wild Card: New York. I see the Twins and the White Sox actually
challenging for this.

AL Playoffs: Boston beats Anaheim, New York beats Cleveland. Yanks over
Sox in 6 games.

NL East: Atlanta. I've been wrong too many times before.
NL Central: Chicago. They have some pitching injuries, but it's enough
to push St. Louis back.
NL West: I see San Diego winning the thing. That would be back-to-back
good years from that franchise; first time since the Eighties.
NL Wild Card: St. Louis. There won't be much doubt about this unless
the Mets are better than I think they are.

NL Playoffs: Atlanta beats St. Louis, Chicago beats San Diego. Chicago
beats Atlanta in five.

World Series: Yankees beat Chicago in six.

sjohnny
Arod hits 800 in world series, yet still "not a real yankee"

SG
The Yankees storm out of the gate by sweeping Boston in the first series of the season, and go wire-to-wire to win the AL East by five games, winning 102 games in the process. Alex Rodriguez hits fifty homers and wins a Gold Glove, and gets several hits with runners in scoring position in winning the MVP. Randy Johnson wins 20 games and breaks Ron Guidry's Yankee strikeout record of 248. Boston gets the Wild Card with 97 wins.

In the AL Central, something clicks for Jose Contreras, and he and El Duque combine for 35 wins. The Sox ride their starting pitching to an upset win in the AL Central, as Johan Santana regresses a bit and the Twins defense struggles after the losses of Koskie and Guzman.

In the AL West, Oakland's young pitchers struggle to acclimate to the majors, and Los Angeles of Anaheim rides Vladimir Guerrero and Bartolo Colon's bounceback season to a fairly easy divisional title.

In the playoffs, the Yankees lose to Contreras and El Duque but beat Mark Buehrle twice and Freddy Garcia once to advance to the ALCS. The Angels sweep the Red Sox, who don't have the hunger to win after their victory last season.

In the ALCS, the Yankees lose the first two games of the ALCS, then storm back to win the next four.

In the NL East, Tim Hudson and John Smoltz key another Braves division title. The Mets finish below .500, as Victor Zambrano and Kaz Ishii combine for 300 walks, and Carlos Beltran keeps his low batting average from last year but loses the power that he had (steroids?). Larry Bowa's departure and Jim Thome's monster season propel the Phillies into the wild card.

The Cardinals romp through the NL Central, as the Cubs suffer injury after injury to their starters, and their tattered bullpen completely collapses.

The Dodgers hold off the Padres in the NL West, as JD Drew stays healthy and makes up for the loss of Beltre.

In the NLDS, the Braves leverage their starting pitching advantage to beat the Dodgers, and the Cardinals pound the Phillies pitchers to advance. In the NLCS, the Cardinals are too strong for Atlanta.

In the World Series, Pujols and Rolen are too much for Randy Johnson, and the Cardinals beat the Yankees in six games.

--posted at 5:25 PM by SG / |

March 28, 2005

One week to go
by SG

Make sure you scroll down and read Fabian's posts on Christian Garcia and Eric Abreu. Garcia in particular looks like a stud in the making.

As spring training winds down, I figured it'd be a good time to look at what's been happening down in Tampa. The only job that is up for grabs right now is the spot of 25th man on the roster, whose primary job will be backing up Bernie Williams in CF. I grabbed the Yankees spring training statistics from USA Today to see how people are performing. Spring training statistics are largely meaningless, because of the dilution of competition as well as the small sample size, but they are often given significant weight by baseball management in the case of players "on the bubble".


BATTERS        BA   SLG   OBA   G  AB   R   H  TB 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO SB CS  E
Womack       .463  .648  .492  18  54  10  25  35  1  3  1   9   4   4  7  2  3
Sheffield    .381  .524  .458  14  42   4  16  22  3  0  1  10   6   3  0  0  0
Jeter        .378  .533  .440  15  45   5  17  24  4  0  1  13   5   6  0  2  3
Matsui       .360  .740  .418  17  50  12  18  37  4  0  5  15   5   6  1  0  0
A. Rodriguez .357  .536  .429  18  56  10  20  30  7  0  1   8   7  13  0  1  1
Crosby       .341  .568  .383  18  44   8  15  25  2  1  2   8   2   7  1  0  0
Phillips     .333  .788  .421  19  33  11  11  26  1  1  4  12   4   7  1  0  0
Posada       .324  .459  .457  14  37   7  12  17  2  0  1   2   8   5  0  0  0
Flaherty     .323  .419  .364  14  31   4  10  13  0  0  1   6   2   6  0  0  0
Parrish      .313  .563  .313  10  16   3   5   9  1  0  1   4   0   4  0  0  0
Porter       .304  .435  .385  16  23   4   7  10  0  0  1   4   3   7  0  1  0
Cano         .286  .371  .306  18  35   6  10  13  0  0  1   5   1   3  0  1  1
Giambi       .275  .575  .434  16  40   9  11  23  1  1  3   5  11   9  0  0  0
Ru. Johnson  .250  .321  .333  18  28   7   7   9  2  0  0   3   4   5  1  0  1
R. Sierra    .250  .400  .304   9  20   4   5   8  0  0  1   5   2   3  0  0  0
Martinez     .222  .467  .321  17  45   8  10  21  2  0  3  10   7   4  0  0  1
Escalona     .174  .348  .208  17  23   2   4   8  1  0  1   1   0   4  0  0  3
Sanchez      .167  .194  .184  14  36   4   6   7  1  0  0   2   1   3  0  0  1
Rolls        .100  .100  .229  20  40   4   4   4  0  0  0   2   7  12  2  0  0
Williams     .091  .152  .139  11  33   1   3   5  2  0  0   2   2   5  0  0  0

PITCHERS          W- L    ERA    BA   G GS CG GF SH SV   IP    H   R  ER HR  BB  SO
Groom             0- 0   0.00  .240   6  0  0  0  0  0   7.0   6   0   0  0   0   2
Rivera            0- 0   0.00  .067   5  0  0  2  0  1   5.0   1   0   0  0   1   2
Wright            2- 0   0.00  .205   3  3  0  0  0  0  11.0   8   0   0  0   4   6
Sturtze           0- 0   0.75  .186   6  1  0  0  0  0  12.0   8   1   1  0   2  10
Wang              3- 0   1.00  .207   3  2  0  0  0  0   9.0   6   1   1  0   3   6
Proctor           0- 1   1.50  .292   6  0  0  4  0  1   6.0   7   1   1  0   2   9
De Paula          1- 0   1.59  .190   4  0  0  0  0  0   5.2   4   1   1  1   2   4
Pavano            1- 0   1.89  .260   5  4  0  0  0  0  19.0  19   4   4  2   2  13
Ra. Johnson       1- 2   3.38  .207   4  4  0  0  0  0  16.0  12   6   6  2   4  15
Small             0- 0   4.15  .314   5  1  0  0  0  0   8.2  11   4   4  0   1   3
Mussina           2- 1   4.74  .325   5  5  0  0  0  0  19.0  26  12  10  1   3   8
Stanton           0- 0   5.63  .290   8  0  0  3  0  1   8.0   9   5   5  1   2   5
Bean              0- 1   5.79  .188   5  0  0  1  0  0   4.2   3   3   3  1   3   6
Ramirez           0- 0   6.23  .421   2  0  0  0  0  0   4.1   8   3   3  0   2   3
Brown             1- 1   6.48  .282   4  4  0  0  0  0  16.2  20  12  12  4   7  18
Graman            0- 0   6.55  .304   6  0  0  1  0  0  11.0  14   9   8  4   7   7
Gordon            0- 2   7.00  .300   9  0  0  6  0  0   9.0  12   8   7  0   2  12
F. Rodriguez      0- 1   7.56  .294   8  0  0  2  0  0   8.1  10   7   7  2   5   3
Prinz             0- 0   8.44  .385   5  0  0  2  0  1   5.1  10   5   5  3   5   6
Quantrill         0- 0   8.53  .424   6  0  0  0  0  0   6.1  14   6   6  1   0   3
Karsay            0- 1   9.00  .378   8  0  0  0  0  0   9.0  14   9   9  1   4   1

Tony Womack has been doing a fine impression of Enrique Wilson, but it doesn't appear to have swayed Joe Torre's thought process as far as moving him to leadoff. I'd like to think this is because Torre understands small sample size and the importance of past performance when making decisions, but it's more likely that he just likes keeping Alex Rodriguez in the second spot and doesn't want to move Jeter down. I guess it doesn't matter as long as the right decision gets made.

The best news for me so far on the offensive side has been Jason Giambi. He appears to healthy, is getting significant playing time, and has shown enough power to make me think he will be a force this season. He's even gotten into the field for a few games, although at this point the best Yankee lineup would have him as the DH and Tino Martinez (who is struggling) at first base. This is because Ruben Sierra should not be getting significant starting time, and also because I fear that Giambi at first will be pulled from close games in late innings for Tino's defense, which would be problematic.

The "exciting" battle for 25th man appears to have come down to Bubba Crosby, Damian Rolls, Russ Johnson, and dark horse Colin Porter. Crosby has been the best hitter so far, but Torre seems to be infatuated with Rolls's and Johnson's ability to play the infield. With Rodriguez and Jeter expected to start every game if healthy, and Rey Sanchez already on the team, I don't see that this matters much, but Torre loves versatile defensive players who can't hit for crap. This is a complication of the foolish idea of going with 12 pitchers.

Bernie Williams has been hampered again by injuries in spring training, and is really starting to show his age. I love Bernie, he has been one of my favorite players as a bridge from the Yankees of Mel Hall and Bob Geren to today's perennial AL East champion, but I am very concerned about him this year. Aside from his well-documented defensive issues, his health is a big concern. If he misses any significant time, the Yankees can move Matsui into CF, but then they have to choose from Ruben Sierra or the 25th man as the full-time LF, an even scarier proposition than Bernie costing 50 runs in CF. I hope Bernie can stay healthy and go out with a bang. He is 36 this year, the same age that Joe Dimaggio and Mickey Mantle played their final games for the Yankees.

To avoid turning this into a full-fledged season preview, I'll go over to the pitching side now.

All indications are that Randy Johnson's knee is a non-issue, and he appears to be gaining strength. In addition, newcomers Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright have been quite impressive so far. I was lukewarm on the Pavano signing, but everything I'm reading about him encourages me. He is apparently quite a student of the game, and is seeking guidance from Mike Mussina and Jorge Posada, and appears to be a very cerebral-type pitcher who studies opposing hitters extensively. I realize the numbers in his past history are cause for concern, but I am cautiously optimistic.

Jaret Wright has been dominant so far in spring training. He appears to have matured quite a bit from his days in Cleveland. I still think he was a very risky signing, but he's making just a little more than Sterling Hitchcock did from 2002-2003 for a total of 80 innings of a 5+ ERA. If he can stay healthy, I think he can provide 180-200 league average innings, which will be an asset. I've only seen him pitch two innings this spring, but was very impressed with his command and poise.

Kevin Brown's results have been mixed, but he appears to have his back problems worked out and has gotten some velocity back. Last year he was in the 88-90 mph range with his fastball, but this spring he has been clocked as high as 94. I still doubt he makes 30 starts this year, but have a good feeling that he will be solid when he takes the hill. I got to watch him earlier today, and outside of a shaky first inning he looked pretty good.

And what about Tanyon Sturtze? I still am skeptical, but he has been very good since September of last year, with much better command, and with the new cutter that Mariano Rivera showed him. He's still a wild card, but as a spot starter and long man I think he will be decent. Sturtze and Tiger Wang look to be the best bets to take any starts that come up when one of the other starters get hurt, and Wang also acquitted himself decently in the spring, and looks to be fully recovered from his surgery a few years back. I don't know if Buddy Groom will take a spot in Columbus until an opportunity arises in the majors, but if so he may be a viable left-handed option if the need arises during the season.

One thing that strikes me is how inflexible the Yankee roster is right now. The Yankees will likely carry no one with options with the possible exception of Bubba Crosby, so they won't be able to do much in-season manipulation unless injuries occur. I still hope that Andy Phillips, Colter Bean and Robinson Cano get to see some time this year. The Yankees are also trying to find takers for Alex Graman and Bret Prinz, who are both out of options. I don't think they'll get much for them, but some catching depth to stick at Columbus would be nice. As it stands now, the Yankees are very thin at catcher.

We'll see what happens when the games start to count in a week, but the key thing right now is that the team looks healthy and ready to start the season at full strength. How long they'll stay there is an another issue.

--posted at 12:16 AM by SG / |

March 25, 2005

One season out of 1000
by SG

A few days ago, I posted the results of 1000 Diamond Mind Sims with a couple of different projection disks. With what looks like another close race looming in the AL East, I figured I'd look in depth at one of the Diamond Mind simulations that had a nice tight divisional race to see what kind of story played out.

April
At the end of the April, the Red Sox had stormed out of the gate, winning 16 of 24 games and opening up a big 7 game lead on the Yankees, who struggled in losing 15 of their first 26 games. The Yankee offense was lousy, putting up a cumulative batting line of .244/.342/.406. Alex Rodriguez in particular put up the putrid line of .191/.303/.287. The pitching staff did not help either, putting up a 5.19 ERA, with Mussina and Pavano getting pounded. Moose went 1-1, but posted a 6.67 ERA. Pavano went 0-4, with a 6.67 ERA. Could the Yankees recover from this dreadful start?

May
May went much better, as the Yankees rebounded to win 17 of 27 games. Unfortunately for them, they lost 1.5 games in the standings, as Boston continued to play well, winning 19 of their 28 games. At this point, the Yankees were looking at an 8.5 game deficit. The Yankee offense improved slightly in May, hitting .264/.343/.440. Jason Giambi clubbed 7 HRs, and Derek Jeter hit .364/.442/.586, scoring 26 runs in the process. On the pitching side, Mussina rebounded to go 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA, as the staff went 17-10 with a 4.27 ERA. Joe Torre overused Mariano Rivera, as he pitched in 14 of the 27 games, notching 5 saves, 2 wins, and posting a 2.35 ERA.

June
Things began to turn in June, as the Yankees picked up 5 games on Boston by going a whopping 20-7. The team hit a cumulative .259/.348/.445. Hideki Matsui had a monstrous(get it?) month, hitting .363/.449/.706, clubbing 10! HRs and driving in 31 runs. Jorge Posada did quite well himself, chipping in a .327/.393/.618 line. In this month, it was the pitchng staff which keyed the resurgence, chief amongst them Jaret Wright, who went 4-0 with a stellar 2.23 ERA.

through the All Star Break
With the All Star Break beginning after games of July 10, here's how the AL standings were shaping up:


                            Regular season -- through 7/11/2005

Year Team                            W    L   Pct      GB    L10  RF   RA
East
2005 Boston                         54   33  .621       -    5-5  510  408
2005 Baltimore                      51   37  .580   3 1/2    7-3  513  434
2005 New York (A)                   50   37  .575       4    4-6  461  394
2005 Toronto                        49   39  .557   5 1/2    7-3  507  454
2005 Tampa Bay                      36   53  .404      19    6-4  366  455
       
Central
2005 Minnesota                      50   37  .575       -    7-3  456  422
2005 Chicago (A)                    44   43  .506       6    4-6  446  441
2005 Cleveland                      41   47  .466   9 1/2    6-4  469  490
2005 Detroit                        36   51  .414      14    2-8  413  464
2005 Kansas City                    29   58  .333      21    1-9  383  531

West
2005 Los Angeles (A)                44   44  .500       -    5-5   L1  403
2005 Oakland                        43   44  .494     1/2    4-6   W3  445
2005 Texas                          42   45  .483   1 1/2    5-5   W1  448
2005 Seattle                        38   49  .437   5 1/2    7-3   W1  413

The team's statistics at the All Star Break:


For the offense:

                            Regular season through 7/11/2005                            

Name                 P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   BB    K HBP  IW  SB  CS 
Escalona, F          2b  .429  .600  .714   10    7    3   2   0   0    0    0    3    1   0   0   0   0 
Posada, J#           c   .320  .395  .574   71  244   78  21   1  13   41   47   31   55   2   0   0   0 
Matsui, H*           lf  .299  .377  .528   68  254   76   9   2  15   40   56   30   45   3   1   0   0 
Jeter, D             ss  .292  .362  .491   85  342  100  26   0  14   66   49   32   56   7   0  19   3 
Sheffield, G         rf  .291  .405  .481   76  285   83  18   0  12   60   45   47   40   8   4   5   0 
Phillips, A          3b  .274  .378  .468   26   62   17   1   1   3    8    9   11    8   0   0   0   0 
Womack, T*           2b  .272  .318  .316   84  272   74   6   0   2   32   20   14   27   5   0  15   0 
Flaherty, J          c   .266  .286  .447   28   94   25   5   0   4   10   20    2   17   1   0   0   0 
Rodriguez, A         3b  .242  .332  .442   85  339   82  13   2  17   72   53   45   88   3   1  19   3 
Porter, C*           cf  .235  .316  .294    7   17    4   1   0   0    4    1    2    6   0   0   2   0 
Martinez, T*         1b  .229  .293  .329   70  240   55  10   1   4   31   30   20   33   4   0   1   0 
Williams, B#         cf  .223  .343  .388   77  260   58   9   2  10   37   39   44   49   4   3   2   0 
Giambi, J*           dh  .221  .380  .430   80  258   57   6   0  16   34   42   61   75   6   0   1   0 
Rolls, D             3b  .200  .200  .400    8    5    1   1   0   0    0    0    0    1   0   0   2   0 
Sierra, R#           lf  .192  .277  .392   41  125   24   7   0   6   15   22   15   22   0   0   0   0 
Sanchez, R           2b  .171  .216  .257   21   35    6   0   0   1    3    5    1    2   1   0   0   0 
Sprowl, J*           c   .167  .286  .167    7    6    1   0   0   0    1    0    1    1   0   0   0   0 
Crosby, B*           cf  .132  .154  .184   17   38    5   0   1   0    4    4    1    9   0   0   1   0 
Pitchers                 .038  .074  .038   87   26    1   0   0   0    3    2    0   11   1   0   0   0 
Total                    .258  .346  .432   87 2909  750 135  10 117  461  444  360  546  45   9  67   6 

For the pitching:
                            Regular season through 7/11/2005                            

Name                 P     ERA   W   L   S   G  GS  CG SHO     INN    H    R   ER   BB    K  HR GDP    BF 
Rivera, M            cl   1.37   3   2  20  35   0   0   0    39.1   22    6    6    8   31   0   3   146 
Gordon, T            mr   2.86   2   2   0  24   0   0   0    34.2   37   13   11   10   39   2   1   153 
Karsay, S            mr   2.87   0   1   0  10   0   0   0    15.2   10    6    5    6   10   3   2    60 
Brown, K             sp   3.06   5   3   0  13  13   1   0    85.1   66   31   29   31   67   5  11   345 
Sturtze, T           sp   3.25   3   1   0   4   4   1   0    27.2   22   10   10   11   14   0   4   110 
Johnson, R*          sp   3.79  10   5   0  18  18   1   0   123.1  114   55   52   27  142  14   5   508 
Rodriguez, F         mr   4.10   1   1   1  25   0   0   0    26.1   28   12   12   11   16   5   3   116 
Mussina, M           sp   4.26   8   4   0  18  18   2   0   120.1  127   60   57   27  120  15  12   503 
Wright, J            sp   4.85   9   4   0  17  17   1   0    98.1  109   58   53   41   76   5  14   433 
Groom, B*            mr   4.97   0   1   0  15   0   0   0    25.1   28   14   14    4   14   4   3   106 
Pavano, C            sp   5.77   5   9   0  17  17   4   1   110.2  143   79   71   20   64  18  11   496 
Stanton, M*          mr   5.82   1   4   2  17   0   0   0    21.2   25   16   14    9   17   4   0   100 
Quantrill, P         mr   6.03   2   0   0  19   0   0   0    31.1   40   23   21    4   17   2   1   139 
DePaula, J           mr   6.91   1   0   0   8   0   0   0    14.1   15   11   11    5    8   6   1    62 
Total                     4.25  50  37  23  87  87  10   6   774.1  786  394  366  214  635  83  71  3277

Post All Star Break July
The Yankees began the All Star Break at Fenway Park against the hated Red Sox. In the first game, Carl Pavano tried to recover from a terrible beginning to his Yankee career vs. Matt Clement whom many felt would've been a better signing, and who had begun the season 9-3 for Boston.


7/14/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      2  0  0  0  2  1  0  0  0     5 11  1    14  1
2005 Boston            0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0     2  6  1     4  0
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Jeter             ss  6  0  2  0  .293    Damon             cf  4  0  1  0  .269       
Rodriguez,A       3b  5  2  1  0  .241    Vazquez           2b  4  1  2  0  .254       
Sheffield         rf  4  2  3  0  .298    Ortiz             dh  4  1  1  2  .291       
Matsui            lf  5  1  1  1  .297    Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  0  0  .326       
Posada            c   4  0  3  2  .327    Nixon             rf  4  0  2  0  .329       
Giambi            dh  2  0  0  1  .219    Millar            1b  4  0  0  0  .333       
Williams          cf  1  0  0  0  .222    Mueller           3b  3  0  0  0  .280       
 Crosby           pr  3  0  0  0  .122    Mirabelli         c   3  0  0  0  .232       
Martinez          1b  3  0  1  1  .230    Renteria          ss  3  0  0  0  .260       
Womack            2b  4  0  0  0  .268                         33  2  6  2             
                     37  5 11  5                                                    
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Pavano           W 6-9           8.0  5  2  2  0  8 109  74  5.54
Rivera           S 21            1.0  1  0  0  0  0  10   7  1.34
                                 9.0  6  2  2  0  8 119  81 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Clement          L 9-4           4.0  7  4  4  4  4  81  44  3.77
Halama                           2.0  3  1  1  1  2  40  23  4.94
Kim                              3.0  1  0  0  1  5  41  28  3.32
                                 9.0 11  5  5  6 11 162  95

Pavano's masterful game pulled the Yankees within 3 games of Boston.

The excitement was building as the Yankees tried to continue their momentum as Jaret Wright faced off against Wade Miller in the second game of the series.


7/15/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      0  2  1  0  0  0  0  0  0     3  6  1     5  3
2005 Boston            0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0     1  4  0     6  1
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Jeter             ss  4  0  2  0  .295    Damon             cf  4  1  2  0  .272       
Rodriguez,A       3b  4  0  0  0  .239    Bellhorn          2b  2  0  1  0  .250       
Sheffield         rf  4  1  1  0  .297    Ortiz             dh  3  0  0  0  .288       
Matsui            lf  2  1  0  0  .295    Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  0  1  .322       
Posada            c   3  1  1  1  .327    Nixon             rf  4  0  1  0  .327       
Giambi            dh  4  0  1  1  .220    Mueller           3b  3  0  0  0  .276       
Martinez          1b  4  0  0  1  .227    Petagine          1b  3  0  0  0  .250       
Crosby            cf  4  0  1  0  .133     Vazquez          ph  1  0  0  0  .252       
Womack            2b  3  0  0  0  .265    Mirabelli         c   2  0  0  0  .226       
                     32  3  6  3          Renteria          ss  3  0  0  0  .256       
                                                               29  1  4  1             
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Wright           W 10-4          7.0  4  1  0  5  5 103  62  4.53
Gordon           H 7             1.0  0  0  0  0  1  14   9  2.78
Rivera           S 22            1.0  0  0  0  0  1  11   8  1.31
                                 9.0  4  1  0  5  7 128  79 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Miller           L 3-4           8.0  6  3  3  3  6 113  70  5.54
Embree                           1.0  0  0  0  0  2  14  10  4.00
                                 9.0  6  3  3  3  8 127  80

Another fine performance by the Yankees' starter, as Wright pulled the Yankees within 2 games.

In the third game of the series, the much-maligned Kevin Brown tried to continue a great run of pitching by the Yankees.


7/16/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0     1  6  2    10  1
2005 Boston            0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0     0  4  1     4  0
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Giambi            dh  3  1  1  1  .221    Damon             cf  4  0  0  0  .269       
Rodriguez,A       3b  5  0  0  0  .235    Bellhorn          2b  4  0  1  0  .250       
Sheffield         rf  3  0  0  0  .294    Ortiz             dh  4  0  1  0  .288       
Matsui            lf  4  0  2  0  .298     Stern            pr  0  0  0  0  .286       
Posada            c   3  0  1  0  .327    Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  0  0  .318       
Martinez          1b  4  0  1  0  .227    Nixon             rf  3  0  1  0  .327       
Crosby            cf  4  0  0  0  .122    Millar            1b  2  0  1  0  .335       
Womack            2b  4  0  0  0  .261    Varitek           c   3  0  0  0  .216       
 Escalona         ss  0  0  0  0  .429    Mueller           3b  3  0  0  0  .273       
Sanchez           ss  4  0  1  0  .179    Vazquez           ss  2  0  0  0  .248       
                     34  1  6  1                               29  0  4  0             
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Brown            W 6-3           7.2  3  0  0  2  8 107  67  2.81
Rivera           S 23            1.1  1  0  0  0  2  18  11  1.27
                                 9.0  4  0  0  2 10 125  78 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Wakefield        L 5-7           6.2  6  1  1  1  3 106  72  4.33
Timlin                           2.0  0  0  0  3  0  32  14  3.78
Kim                              0.1  0  0  0  0  0   1   1  3.30
                                 9.0  6  1  1  4  3 139  87

Giambi's third inning HR was all the offense Brown needed, as he and Rivera combined on a four-hit shutout to blank the Red Sox 1-0.

Could this be the Boston Massacre part 2? With the Yankees sweeping the first three games of the series to pull within one game of Boston, the two teams sent their aces to the mound. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling faced off in a much-hyped matchup that turned out to be a blowout.


7/17/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      0  0  3  0  0  2  0  2  0     7 11  0     6  0
2005 Boston            0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1     1  6  2     9  2
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Jeter             ss  5  1  1  0  .294    Damon             cf  4  0  0  0  .266       
Rodriguez,A       3b  4  1  2  3  .238    Bellhorn          2b  4  0  1  0  .250       
Giambi            dh  4  0  1  0  .221    Ortiz             dh  4  0  0  0  .284       
Matsui            lf  4  0  1  0  .297    Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  2  0  .320       
Sierra            rf  4  0  0  0  .186    Renteria          ss  3  0  0  0  .252       
Martinez          1b  4  1  1  0  .227    Varitek           c   3  0  0  0  .214       
Crosby            cf  4  1  2  1  .151    Millar            1b  4  1  1  0  .333       
Womack            2b  4  0  1  0  .261    Mueller           3b  3  0  1  0  .274       
Flaherty          c   4  3  2  3  .276    Payton            rf  2  0  1  0  .327       
                     37  7 11  7           Nixon            ph  2  0  0  1  .324       
                                                               33  1  6  1             
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Johnson,Ra       W 11-5          5.1  4  0  0  2  9 105  66  3.64
Quantrill        H 1             1.2  1  0  0  1  0  28  18  5.73
Rodriguez,F                      2.0  1  1  1  0  2  20  15  4.13
                                 9.0  6  1  1  3 11 153  99 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Schilling        L 6-5           7.0  9  5  4  2  4 106  72  3.63
Halama                           1.0  2  2  2  0  1  17  11  5.16
Tomori                           1.0  0  0  0  1  0  11   5  8.74
                                 9.0 11  7  6  3  5 134  88

Johnson pitched well, but Boston worked his pitch count enough to get him out of the game after a little more than five innings. Luckily Felix Rodriguez and Paul Quantrill were able to close out the game as the Yankee offense managed to pound seven runs off of Schilling and his replacement, John Halama. It is not known if this game caused Schilling to start crying.

July ended with the Yankees and Boston tied for the division with identical 62-42 records.

August
August saw the Yankees and Boston basically hold even, the Yankees falling 1/2 game behind Boston by going 18-11 to Boston's 18-10.

Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez paced the offense, as Giambi went .305/.445/621 with 8 HR and 23 RBI, and Rodriguez hitting .339/415/.559 with 6 HR ans 22 RBI. Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera each went 3-1. Rivera went through WWWMW™(What's wrong with Mariano Week) in August, with a 7.30 ERA, blowing 3 of 4 save opportunities, and allowing 6 of his 8 inherited runners to score.

September
With 1/2 game separating Boston and New York, it all came down to September. Boston began the month by winning their first 4 games, with the Yankees winning 3 of 4 games. Heading into a three game series at home with Boston on September 9, the Yankees still trailed by 1.5 games. Luckily, the Yankees were able to throw RJ vs. Wakefield in the first game,

 
9/9/2005, Bos05-NYA05, Yankee Stadium

                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 Boston            0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0     1  6  0     6  1
2005 New York (A)      2  0  0  0  0  2  2  0  x     6  8  0     6  0
 
Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG    New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG
Damon             cf  4  0  1  1  .250    Jeter             ss  3  1  1  0  .268       
Bellhorn          2b  4  0  0  0  .239    Rodriguez,A       3b  3  1  1  2  .256       
Ortiz             dh  4  0  0  0  .287    Sheffield         rf  3  1  0  0  .299       
Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  0  0  .324    Matsui            lf  3  2  2  2  .290       
Renteria          ss  4  0  2  0  .288    Giambi            dh  3  0  1  0  .254       
Varitek           c   4  0  1  0  .235    Williams          cf  4  1  2  1  .240       
Millar            1b  4  0  1  0  .300    Flaherty          c   4  0  1  0  .228       
Mueller           3b  3  0  0  0  .262    Martinez          1b  3  0  0  1  .247       
Payton            rf  2  1  1  0  .319    Womack            2b  4  0  0  0  .270       
                     33  1  6  1                               30  6  8  6             
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Wakefield        L 7-12          6.2  8  6  6  3  4 101  61  4.23
Tomori                           1.1  0  0  0  0  3  22  16  6.75
                                 8.0  8  6  6  3  7 123  77 
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Johnson,Ra       W 16-8          7.0  5  1  1  1 10 110  70  3.39
Groom                            2.0  1  0  0  0  1  32  21  4.10
                                 9.0  6  1  1  1 11 142  91

Now facing a slim 1/2 game deficit, the Yankees sent Mike Mussina to the mound to try and give the Yankees their first sole divisional lead of the season, against noted Republican and loudmouth Curt Schilling.


9/10/2005, Bos05-NYA05, Yankee Stadium

2005 Boston            0  0  1  0  0  0  2  1  0  0  0  0     4 14  0    15  1
2005 New York (A)      0  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  1     5 14  0    12  0
 
Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG    New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG
Damon             cf  4  1  3  1  .254    Jeter             ss  6  1  3  1  .270       
Bellhorn          2b  4  1  0  0  .237    Rodriguez,A       3b  4  2  2  0  .257       
 Petagine         ph  1  0  0  0  .268    Sheffield         rf  5  0  3  2  .303       
 Hummel           2b  0  0  0  0  .667    Matsui            lf  5  0  1  0  .289       
Ortiz             dh  6  1  2  2  .287    Posada            c   6  1  3  1  .307       
Ramirez,M         lf  5  0  2  1  .324    Giambi            dh  4  0  0  0  .252       
 Payton           rf  1  0  1  0  .322    Williams          cf  5  1  2  0  .242       
Nixon             rf  5  0  1  0  .303    Martinez          1b  4  0  0  0  .244       
 Stern            lf  1  0  1  0  .381    Womack            2b  5  0  0  0  .268       
Millar            1b  6  0  1  0  .298     Sanchez          2b  0  0  0  0  .216       
Varitek           c   6  0  0  0  .232                         44  5 14  4             
Mueller           3b  5  1  1  0  .261                                              
Renteria          ss  2  0  1  0  .289                                              
 Vazquez          ph  3  0  1  0  .246                                              
                     49  4 14  4                                                    
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Schilling                        4.1  9  2  2  2  2  85  53  3.16
Halama                           0.2  0  0  0  1  1  13   6  5.09
Mantei                           1.0  1  0  0  0  2  11   8  5.63
Embree           H 10            1.0  0  0  0  0  1  11   8  3.25
Kershner         H 3             1.0  0  0  0  0  0  11   7  7.18
Foulke           BS 7            1.0  2  2  2  1  2  33  17  3.07
Timlin           L 4-3           2.0  2  1  1  1  0  21  12  3.36
                                11.0 14  5  5  5  8 185 111 
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Mussina                          6.0  4  1  1  5  6 120  77  3.76
Gordon           BS 6            1.0  3  2  2  0  0  20  13  3.18
Rodriguez,F                      2.0  3  1  1  1  2  46  29  3.40
Rivera           W 8-3           3.0  4  0  0  0  6  52  35  2.38
                                12.0 14  4  4  6 14 238 154

After six solid innings by Mussina, the Yankees turned a 2-1 lead over to Flash Gordon. However, a Johnny Damon single was followed by a Mark Bellhorn groundout, bringing up the dangerous David Ortiz. Ortiz cranked a homer into the short porch in right, giving Boston a 3-2 lead. Gordon got out of the inning, but the damage was done.

Alan Embree cruised through Matsui, Posada, and Giambi in the bottom of the seventh.

In the top of the eighth, Felix Rodriguez attempted to hold Boston. A single by Mueller, a walk by Ramon Vazquez, and a double by Johnny Damon got Boston a big insurance run. September callup Jason Kershner retired Bernie, Tino, and Womack 1-2-3 in the bottom of the eighth.

Boston failed to score in the top of the ninth, giving the Yankees the daunting task of scoring two runs off Keith Foulke in one inning. Derek Jeter led off the inning with a double down the third base line (he is clutch after all). Foulke then threw a wild pitch moving Jeter to third. A flustered Foulke walked Alex Rodriguez on a 3-1 pitch, bringing up Gary Sheffield. Another wild pitch scored Jeter and moved Rodriguez to second. Sheffield then followed with another double, putting the winning run on second with no outs, and Matsui, Posada and Giambi coming up. However, Foulke sacked up, fanning Matsui and Posada, then inducing a popup to short from Giambi. On to extra innings.

It was Mariano time for the Yankees, as Joe Torre brought him in to keep Boston scoreless. Boston asked Mike Timlin to do the same. Rivera pitched three shutout innings, and Timlin matched him in the 10th and 11th. Then, in a scene eerily reminiscent of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, Jorge Posada led of the bottom of the 12th with a game winning HR, putting the Yankees into sole possession of first place for the first time.

That lasted for one day, as Boston managed to come back the following day.


9/11/2005, Bos05-NYA05, Yankee Stadium
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 Boston            2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  6     8 12  0    10  1
2005 New York (A)      0  0  0  0  0  4  0  0  0     4  6  2     5  0
 
Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG    New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG
Damon             cf  4  1  1  0  .254    Jeter             ss  4  1  1  0  .270       
Bellhorn          2b  3  1  1  2  .238    Rodriguez,A       3b  3  1  0  0  .256       
Ortiz             dh  5  2  2  1  .288    Sheffield         rf  4  1  2  4  .304       
Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  1  1  .324    Matsui            lf  3  0  2  0  .291       
 Stern            lf  0  0  0  0  .381    Posada            c   4  0  1  0  .306       
Millar            1b  5  1  1  0  .296    Williams          cf  4  0  0  0  .239       
Payton            rf  5  1  1  0  .320    Giambi            dh  4  0  0  0  .249       
Mirabelli         c   4  1  2  4  .240    Martinez          1b  3  0  0  0  .243       
Youkilis          3b  4  0  1  0  .214    Womack            2b  3  1  0  0  .266       
Renteria          ss  5  1  2  0  .290                         32  4  6  4             
                     39  8 12  8                                                    
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Wells                            5.0  4  4  4  2  6  75  46  3.97
Mantei                           2.0  1  0  0  1  3  30  17  5.36
Timlin           W 5-3           2.0  1  0  0  1  0  17  10  3.24
                                 9.0  6  4  4  4  9 122  73 
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Pavano                           7.0  6  2  2  2  2 121  81  5.16
Stanton          H 4, L 1-6      1.1  4  3  2  0  1  31  20  6.23
Groom            BS 1            0.1  2  3  0  1  0  13   6  4.07
DePaula                          0.1  0  0  0  0  0   1   1  7.04
                                 9.0 12  8  4  3  3 166 108

An exhausted Yankee bullpen had to try and use Mike Stanton and Buddy Groom to preserve a two run lead.

The Yankees fell another half game behind Boston heading into the final series of the season, and trailed Boston by one game heading into Fenway for a three game set.

The Yankees managed to pull even with Boston in the first game of the series thanks to Kevin Brown's 10th win of the season.


9/30/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      0  0  1  4  1  1  2  1  0    10 12  0     7  0
2005 Boston            0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  2     3  9  3     7  2
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Jeter             ss  5  0  0  1  .264    Damon             cf  5  0  0  0  .250       
Giambi            dh  4  0  0  0  .250    Bellhorn          2b  4  0  0  0  .236       
Sheffield         rf  5  2  2  2  .296    Ortiz             dh  4  0  1  0  .287       
Matsui            lf  4  2  2  0  .289    Millar            1b  3  1  1  0  .278       
Posada            c   3  2  0  0  .296    Nixon             rf  4  1  2  1  .299       
Martinez          1b  4  1  1  0  .247    Mueller           3b  4  1  2  2  .264       
Phillips          3b  5  2  3  3  .314    Payton            lf  4  0  0  0  .296       
Crosby            cf  5  1  2  2  .189    Mirabelli         c   3  0  2  0  .238       
Womack            2b  4  0  2  2  .269    Renteria          ss  4  0  1  0  .302       
                     39 10 12 10                               35  3  9  3             
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Brown            W 10-7          7.0  6  1  1  2  6  95  61  3.64
Groom                            2.0  3  2  2  0  0  34  20  4.02
                                 9.0  9  3  3  2  6 129  81 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Wakefield        L 8-15          4.1  4  6  1  3  0  72  38  4.43
Kershner                         2.0  3  2  2  0  1  38  27  6.40
Tomori                           1.1  4  2  2  1  0  27  16  6.53
Kim                              1.1  1  0  0  0  1  16  11  3.36
                                 9.0 12 10  5  4  2 153  92

In Game 2, another Johnson vs. Schilling matchup led to another Yankee win.


10/1/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      0  0  0  0  0  0  3  0  0     3  7  0     5  1
2005 Boston            0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0     1  4  0     4  0
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Jeter             ss  4  0  2  1  .266    Damon             cf  4  0  0  0  .248       
Rodriguez,A       3b  3  0  1  0  .262    Bellhorn          2b  4  0  1  0  .236       
Sheffield         rf  4  0  0  0  .293    Ortiz             dh  4  0  1  0  .286       
Giambi            dh  4  0  0  0  .248    Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  0  0  .326       
Posada            c   4  0  0  0  .294    Renteria          ss  2  1  0  0  .300       
Sierra            lf  4  0  0  0  .211    Varitek           c   3  0  0  0  .228       
Williams          cf  4  1  2  0  .250    Millar            1b  2  0  1  1  .279       
Martinez          1b  4  1  1  1  .247    Mueller           3b  3  0  1  0  .264       
Womack            2b  3  1  1  1  .269    Payton            rf  3  0  0  0  .293       
                     34  3  7  3                               29  1  4  1             
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Johnson,Ra       W 19-9          8.1  4  1  1  3  7 113  64  3.07
Gordon           S 3             0.2  0  0  0  0  0   4   2  2.95
                                 9.0  4  1  1  3  7 117  66 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Schilling        L 15-8          6.2  6  3  3  1  5 115  75  2.98
Timlin                           2.1  1  0  0  0  2  31  20  3.12
                                 9.0  7  3  3  1  7 146  95

The final game of the season came down to Mike Mussina vs. former Yankee David Wells, going for his 20th victory. A win by Boston would force a tie in the AL East.


10/2/2005, NYA05-Bos05, Fenway Park
 
                       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9     R  H  E   LOB DP
2005 New York (A)      0  2  0  0  4  0  2  1  0     9 14  0     4  0
2005 Boston            1  2  0  0  0  0  1  0  0     4 10  0     7  0
 
New York (A)         AB  R  H BI   AVG    Boston               AB  R  H BI   AVG
Jeter             ss  5  2  2  0  .267    Damon             cf  5  2  2  0  .250       
Rodriguez,A       3b  5  1  1  0  .261    Vazquez           2b  3  0  0  0  .238       
Sheffield         rf  5  2  2  5  .294     Petagine         ph  1  0  1  0  .244       
Matsui            lf  5  1  1  0  .288     Hummel           ss  1  0  0  0  .500       
Posada            c   4  2  2  0  .295    Ortiz             dh  2  0  1  2  .287       
Williams          cf  4  0  1  0  .250    Ramirez,M         lf  4  0  1  0  .325       
Giambi            dh  4  0  1  1  .248    Nixon             rf  2  1  1  0  .300       
Martinez          1b  4  1  2  1  .249     Payton           ph  1  0  0  0  .292       
Womack            2b  4  0  2  2  .271    Millar            1b  3  0  1  0  .279       
                     40  9 14  9          Varitek           c   4  0  1  1  .228       
                                          Mueller           3b  4  1  1  0  .264       
                                          Renteria          ss  3  0  1  1  .300       
                                           Bellhorn         2b  1  0  0  0  .236       
                                                               34  4 10  4             
 
New York (A)                     INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Mussina          W 15-6          6.1  9  4  3  1  6 103  70  3.86
Stanton                          2.2  1  0  0  1  0  39  24  5.52
                                 9.0 10  4  3  2  6 142  94 
 
Boston                           INN  H  R ER BB  K PCH STR   ERA
Wells            L 19-8          4.1  9  6  6  0  4  80  55  4.25
Halama                           0.2  0  0  0  0  1  10   6  4.93
Mantei                           2.0  2  2  2  0  1  29  18  4.86
Kim                              2.0  3  1  1  0  3  27  18  3.39
                                 9.0 14  9  9  0  9 146  97

And with that game, the Yankees clinch the AL East by two games.


Team                            W    L   Pct      GB   RF   RA 
American League
East
New York (A)                   99   63  .611       -  884  702 
Boston                         97   65  .599       2  910  733 
Baltimore                      88   74  .543      11  901  819 
Toronto                        85   77  .525      14  907  828 
Tampa Bay                      74   88  .457      25  702  815

The Yankee hitters' final season line:


S Name               P    AVG   OBP   SPC    G   AB    H  2B  3B  HR    R  RBI   BB    K HBP  IW  SB  CS 
  Escalona           2b  .316  .409  .421   23   19    6   2   0   0    1    1    3    3   0   0   0   0 
  Phillips           3b  .314  .394  .523   35   86   27   4   1   4   14   16   12   15   0   0   0   0 
  Posada#            c   .295  .396  .525  124  440  130  30   1  23   76   72   71   88   5   2   3   1 
  Sheffield          rf  .294  .401  .522  147  557  164  28   0  33  112  100   88   72  13   7   7   3 
  Matsui*            lf  .288  .371  .485  138  534  154  29   2  24   83   94   67   91   5   1   1   1 
  Rolls              3b  .286  .375  .429   14    7    2   1   0   0    0    1    1    1   0   0   2   0 
  Womack*            2b  .271  .310  .306  159  539  146  13   0   2   56   47   27   62   5   0  30   3 
  Jeter              ss  .267  .334  .434  158  645  172  38   2  22  114   82   55  112  13   0  34   4 
  Rodriguez,A        3b  .261  .344  .468  156  643  168  33   2  32  130  105   79  142   5   2  31   6 
  Williams#          cf  .250  .373  .406  132  448  112  18   2  16   77   64   84   77   5   3   3   0 
  Martinez*          1b  .249  .313  .359  145  518  129  22   1  11   62   77   43   72  10   0   1   0 
  Giambi*            dh  .248  .393  .483  151  516  128  20   1  33   84   89  116  146   8   0   1   2 
  Flaherty           c   .235  .265  .413   54  179   42   8   0   8   20   30    6   29   2   0   0   0 
  Sanchez            2b  .228  .279  .351   32   57   13   1   0   2    8    9    3    5   1   0   0   0 
  Sierra#            lf  .211  .282  .443   62  194   41   9   0  12   26   38   20   31   0   0   3   0 
  Porter*            cf  .192  .276  .269   14   26    5   2   0   0    4    4    3    9   0   0   2   0 
  Crosby*            cf  .189  .225  .287   43  122   23   1   1   3   12   11    5   20   1   0   2   0 
  Sprowl*            c   .182  .250  .182   13   11    2   0   0   0    2    0    1    3   0   0   0   0 
  Pitchers               .038  .074  .038  162   26    1   0   0   0    3    2    0   11   1   0   0   0 
  Total                  .263  .349  .436  162 5567 1465 259  13 225  884  842  684  989  74  15 120  20 

And, for the pitchers:


S Name               P     ERA   W   L   S   G  GS  CG SHO     INN    H    R   ER   BB    K  HR GDP    BF 
  Sturtze            sp   2.81   4   1   0   6   6   1   0    41.2   32   13   13   14   21   2   5   167 
  Rivera             cl   2.86   9   4  30  59   0   0   0    72.1   60   23   23   21   67   4   6   290 
  Gordon             mr   2.95   5   2   3  44   0   0   0    64.0   64   25   21   18   75   5   2   279 
  Johnson,Ra*        sp   3.07  19   9   0  33  33   5   2   234.1  190   86   80   45  281  21   6   940 
  Rodriguez,F        mr   3.15   2   1   2  37   0   0   0    45.2   47   16   16   18   39   5   6   198 
  Karsay             mr   3.33   0   2   0  16   0   0   0    24.1   18   10    9    7   15   4   3    94 
  Brown              sp   3.64  10   7   0  28  28   3   0   185.2  171   79   75   51  140  17  17   768 
  Mussina            sp   3.86  15   6   0  31  31   4   1   205.0  200   96   88   48  197  25  15   848 
  Groom*             mr   4.02   1   2   3  29   0   0   0    47.0   52   24   21    6   28   9   5   198 
  Quantrill          mr   4.20   4   1   0  36   0   0   0    64.1   80   33   30    7   33   2   8   274 
  Wright             sp   4.88  16   8   0  32  32   2   0   193.2  223  113  105   68  160  13  29   844 
  Pavano             sp   5.16  11  13   0  32  32   9   1   219.2  256  136  126   35  122  32  17   951 
  Stanton*           mr   5.52   2   7   3  33   0   0   0    44.0   49   30   27   18   37   7   1   199 
  DePaula            mr   7.04   1   0   0  16   0   0   0    23.0   25   18   18    7   18   9   1   100 
  Total                   4.01  99  63  41 162 162  24  10  1464.2 1467  702  652  363 1233 155 121  6150

There are some weird numbers in there on both sides. Sturtze didn't get any relief appearances for some reason, I'll have to see why that is. Also, Rodriguez had a lousy season by his standards, a bit surprising to me. Pavano was horrendous. I find this very encouraging actually, The Yankees won the division despite some pretty bad performances.

I don't know if anyone else will find this interesting, but I figured I'd throw it up here for the hell of it.

Update: I made a site using Diamond Mind's web report generation feature if anyone wants to see how other teams/players did.

--posted at 8:00 AM by SG / |

March 20, 2005

More Diamond Mind Sims - What do two different projection systems say?
by SG

This post is bumping two of Fabian's prospect posts down, so make sure you scroll down and read his writeups on Sean Henn and Estee Harris.

A couple of months ago, I posted the results of 100 Diamond Mind simulations that I ran with Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection disk for Diamond Mind baseball, which can be found at Baseball Think Factory.

Since then, there have been some roster changes, so I set up my computer to re-run 1000 more with the latest build of ZiPS. Here were the *results for those 1000 seasons.


ZiPS
                                                       High  Low
Team                    W   L   RF   RA   DIV    WC     W     W
American League
East
Boston Red Sox          96  66  933  762  678.7  210.0  117   79
New York Yankees        91  71  867  772  275.7  379.5  115   71
Baltimore Orioles       82  80  838  829   26.3   90.0  103   59
Toronto Blue Jays       81  81  788  782   18.3   77.0   98   63
Tampa Bay Devil Rays    72  90  707  805    1.0    7.8   90   53

Central
Minnesota Twins         81  81  784  787  378.5    6.3   99   58
Chicago White Sox       79  83  783  809  257.8    6.0  101   60
Cleveland Indians       79  83  803  818  255.5    4.5  100   58
Detroit Tigers          75  87  788  835   99.7    2.8   94   54
Kansas City Royals      68  94  750  894    8.5    2.0   91   48

West
Oakland Athletics       88  74  829  749  450.5   77.3  107   67
Los Angeles Angels      88  74  831  774  417.5   82.0  106   68
Seattle Mariners        81  81  796  794  110.0   46.2  100   62
Texas Rangers           75  87  825  896   22.0    8.5   96   54

National League
East
Philadelphia Phillies   90  72  773  689  453.7  137.8  110   60
New York Mets           88  74  759  699  315.7  162.3  109   67
Atlanta Braves          82  80  758  749  118.8   88.3  105   62
Florida Marlins         81  81  713  703   65.5   75.8   99   62
Washington Nationals    80  82  689  697   46.3   34.8  101   58

Central
St. Louis Cardinals     98  64  786  634  929.5   34.5  116   81
Chicago Cubs            84  78  742  699   63.0  207.6  102   58
Milwaukee Brewers       76  86  705  751    2.5   31.2   96   58
Houston Astros          73  89  704  788    3.0   10.0   94   55
Cincinnati Reds         73  89  748  819    2.0    8.0   92   52
Pittsburgh Pirates      68  94  671  794    0.0    2.0   89   41

West
Los Angeles Dodgers     94  68  756  655  841.8   29.2  113   75
San Diego Padres        83  79  745  718  112.0  122.8  103   66
Colorado Rockies        77  85  819  861   27.0   28.8   97   56
San Francisco Giants    75  87  751  807   11.3   17.3   92   55
Arizona Diamondbacks    74  88  728  801    7.8    9.8   94   50

ZiPS likes Boston in the AL East, hates the whole AL Central, sees a dogfight in the AL West, and the AL East runner-up as the wild card. It also likes Philadelphia and the Mets in the NL East, LOVES the Cardinals(which it did last year as well), really likes the Dodgers, and sees the Cubs as the most likely wild card.

The Yankee projection was a bit troubling to me, as they missed the postseason 35% of the time. Of course, a healthy Jason Giambi could make most of that difference up.

In addition to running these with ZiPS, I ran another 1000 with Diamond Mind's own projection disk. Here's some background information about Diamond Mind's projection system. The *results for those sims were:


Diamond Mind
                                                       High  Low
Team                    W   L   RF   RA   DIV    WC     W     W
American League
East
New York Yankees        97  65  893  735  573.8  315.5  119   75
Boston Red Sox          95  67  920  765  407.3  451.0  118   77
Baltimore Orioles       82  80  834  829   17.3   68.7  103   62
Toronto Blue Jays       75  87  800  859    1.5   17.0   95   56
Tampa Bay Devil Rays    68  94  736  860    0.0    2.0   93   49

Central
Minnesota Twins         88  74  846  779  699.5    5.5  108   62
Chicago White Sox       79  83  811  836  116.0   13.5   97   61
Cleveland Indians       79  83  808  820  106.0   11.5   98   59
Detroit Tigers          76  86  813  859   67.0    9.5   94   58
Kansas City Royals      68  94  764  888   11.5    1.0   90   44

West
Oakland Athletics       86  76  867  809  425.5   36.8  108   66
Seattle Mariners        83  79  785  773  238.7   24.7  103   63
Los Angeles Angels      83  79  780  775  226.0   31.0  102   65
Texas Rangers           80  82  854  875  109.8   12.3   98   61

National League
East
Philadelphia Phillies   89  73  855  784  484.8   92.0  107   61
Atlanta Braves          86  76  785  734  276.8   97.6  107   64
Florida Marlins         81  81  752  747  103.0   54.6   98   60
New York Mets           81  81  777  773   97.7   47.6  102   61
Washington Nationals    78  84  747  784   37.7   24.8   96   59

Central
St. Louis Cardinals    103  59  879  670  981.0   10.0  121   83
Chicago Cubs            84  78  786  771   17.5  187.4  103   64
Houston Astros          77  85  760  813    0.0   25.8   94   55
Cincinnati Reds         72  90  776  853    1.5    6.3   91   53
Pittsburgh Pirates      71  91  720  804    0.0    5.0   92   49
Milwaukee Brewers       70  92  716  818    0.0    2.0   88   51

West
Los Angeles Dodgers     90  72  807  726  450.8  172.5  109   71
San Francisco Giants    90  72  863  772  445.8  173.8  109   71
San Diego Padres        83  79  786  762  101.3   97.0  109   59
Arizona Diamondbacks    69  93  792  909    1.0    2.0   91   50
Colorado Rockies        69  93  845  978    1.0    1.5   91   50

In the only league that really matters, the Yankees were about 6 wins better on average, and made the postseason 89% of the time. Minnesota projected as a stronger favorite in the Central, Oakland projected as better than Los Angeles of Anaheim of Orange County of California of the United States of North America, but worse overall. Again the AL East runner-up looks like the most likely wild card.

In the inferior league, Philadelphis still projected as the favorite, although Atlanta improved and the Mets plummeted by about eight wins. So Mets fans can take their ZiPS-induced delusions of grandeur with a big grain of salt. San Francisco improved the most of any team, and looks about even with Los Angeles according to Diamond Mind's projection disk. Again the Cubs look like the team with the best chance for the wild card.

*For both sets of runs, W = average wins, L = average losses, RF = average Runs For, RA = average Runs Allowed, Div = division titles won, WC = wild cards won, and High and low W are self-explanatory. I kept ties in there, giving partial credit, which is why those numbers are not all integers.

Upon noticing the divergent results for several teams, I compared the two sets of data.


                        ZiPS - DMB         Combined
                                           Avg   Avg  Total   Total   High   Low
Team                    W    RF    RA      W     L    DIV     WC      Wins   Wins
American League
East           
Baltimore Orioles       0     4     0      82    80     43.6  158.7   103    59
Boston Red Sox          1    13    -3      96    66   1086.0  661.0   118    77
New York Yankees       -6   -26    37      94    68    849.5  695.0   119    71
Tampa Bay Devil Rays    4   -29   -55      70    92      1.0    9.8    93    49
Toronto Blue Jays       6   -12   -77      78    84     19.8   94.0    98    56

Central
Chicago White Sox       0   -28   -27      79    83    373.8   19.5   101    60
Cleveland Indians       0    -5    -2      79    83    361.5   16.0   100    58
Detroit Tigers         -1   -25   -24      76    86    166.7   12.3    94    54
Kansas City Royals      0   -14     6      68    94     20.0    3.0    91    44
Minnesota Twins        -7   -62     8      84    78   1078.0   11.8   108    58

West
Los Angeles Angels      5    51    -1      85    77    643.5  113.0   106    65
Oakland Athletics       2   -38   -60      87    75    876.0  114.1   108    66
Seattle Mariners       -2    11    21      82    80    348.7   70.9   103    62
Texas Rangers          -5   -29    21      77    85    131.8   20.8    98    54

National League
East
Atlanta Braves         -4   -27    15      84    78    395.6   185.9  107    62
Florida Marlins         0   -39   -44      81    81    168.5   130.4   99    60
New York Mets           7   -18   -74      85    77    413.4   209.9  109    61
Philadelphia Phillies   1   -82   -95      89    73    938.5   229.8  110    60
Washington Nationals    2   -58   -87      79    83     84.0    59.6  101    58

Central
Chicago Cubs            0   -44   -72      84    78     80.5   395.0  103    58
Cincinnati Reds         1   -28   -34      73    89      3.5    14.3   92    52
Houston Astros         -4   -56   -25      75    87      3.0    35.8   94    55
Milwaukee Brewers       6   -11   -67      73    89      2.5    33.2   96    51
Pittsburgh Pirates     -3   -49   -10      69    93      0.0     7.0   92    41
St. Louis Cardinals    -5   -93   -36     100    62   1910.5    44.5  121    81

West
Arizona Diamondbacks    5   -64  -108      72    90      8.8    11.8   94    50
Colorado Rockies        8   -26  -117      73    89     28.0    30.3   97    50
Los Angeles Dodgers     4   -51   -71      92    70   1292.6   201.7  113    71
San Diego Padres        0   -41   -44      83    79    213.3   219.8  109    59
San Francisco Giants  -15  -112    35      83    79    457.1   191.1  109    55

Here, W, RF, and RA are the difference between what ZiPS projected and what Diamond Mind projected, The last six columns are the combined totals of the 2000 runs. Obviously, the most striking difference was in San Francisco's projection. I also noticed that Diamond Mind was far more favorable to the Yankees. If you look at the differences in RF and RA, that will give you some insight into why teams performed differently in the two runs.

For example, the Yankees projected to score 26 more runs in Diamond Mind, and allow 37 fewer, an overall run differential improvement of 63. Statistically, 10 runs is roughly equivalent to a win, so the Yankees 6 win improvement from ZiPS to Diamond Mind is due to Diamond Mind having a more favorable projection for both their offense and defense(including pitching).

One of the biggest differences that I am aware of between the two projection systems is that ZiPS uses Voros McCracken's controversial DIPS theory when projecting pitchers. DIPS basically focuses on a pitcher's strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, and assumes that their control of hits on balls in play(non-homer hits and outs) is minimal. Tom Tippet of Diamond Mind did his own research on this theory, and concluded that pitchers "have more influence over in-play hit rates than McCracken suggested", so he uses a pitcher's hits allowed totals in his projections.

ZiPS also uses comparisons with similar players in building its projections, whereas Diamond Mind uses a Marcel type projection system which only focuses on what a player himself has done. I am also pretty sure that ZiPS is harsher to older players than Diamond Mind, which would be another reason why San Francisco and the Yankees would project better in the system. I would tend to give Diamond Mind a little more faith because they know the intricacies of their game when they are building projections, not to take anything away from Dan Szymborski, because he does a great service by building his disk and providing it for free.

I always caution about reading too much into projections. Projection systems can only use available data to calculate what a player will do going forward. These are still athletes playing games, and their true talent level can always change. A pitcher can learn a new pitch, or just find themselves (look at Jason Schmidt prior to joining San Francisco for example). Also, injuries always turns out to be a big factor, and Diamond Mind uses a random injury system which would even that out over a large number of sims. I just like running these to get a baseline feel for how the season would play out if teams and players do what they're supposed to do, which never happens in baseball.

I think the more data you have the better, so I'd look at the combination of what the two systems project.

Anyway, in a couple of weeks, none of these things will really matter all that much. Of course, to me that's one of the many great things about the game. First pitch in two weeks.

--posted at 6:27 PM by SG / |

March 11, 2005

The Inexplicable Cult of "Anything but Moneyball"
by Larry Mahnken

In last week's sophomorically written column, Toronto Star write Richard Griffin praised the Blue Jays for apparently moving away from the "Moneyball" philoposhy of the A's and towards the more traditional philosophy of the Twins. "It seems the Jays are finally headed in the right direction," Griffin wrote.

There's a really obvious problem with this reasoning: the A's are a more successful organization than the Twins.

Since 2002, the Twins have won 276 games, the A's have won 290 games. The A's have done this while playing in what is pretty much universally considered a far tougher division than the one the Twins play in. The Twins have, of course, won a postseason series (in 2002), which the A's have not done, and that series was against the A's. But the A's actually have a better postseason record than the Twins since 2000: 8-12 to 6-12. The A's may have lost every series they played, but they always took the series to five games, while the Twins have been crushed in the three series' they've played since squeaking past Oakland in 2002. So while Minnesota may have had more postseason success than Oakland, that's hardly indisputable, and would be by only the smallest margin if true.

So why does Griffin prefer the Twins?

Because they're not the A's. Griffin simply doesn't like the way the A's play baseball, he prefers teams that hit-and-run, steal bases, sacrifice bunt. Griffin, like Buster Olney, remains convinced that this is how baseball games are won, despite not only not having any evidence that this is the case, but mountains of evidence that exactly the opposite is true.

The Boston Red Sox were dead-last in all of baseball in "Productive Out Percentage". They laid down a total of twelve sacrifice bunts all season, they stole only 68 bases. But they were second in the league in walks, hit 222 home runs, and led MLB in OBP and SLG. They were the epitome of a "Moneyball" team. And they won the World Series.

And along the way, they swept the Anaheim Angels and St. Louis Cardinals, teams whose offensive strategies prominently featured bunts, hit-and-runs and steals. They didn't just beat them, the beat the crap out of them, by the combined score of 49-24 (an average score of about 7-3). The only team to challenge them? The Yankees, who hit more home runs and drew more walks than them, and were the second-worst POP team in the playoffs.

You'd think that this would at least put the so-called "Moneyball" strategy on an even respectability level with the traditional strategy, but of course not. The Red Sox had scored the tying run in Game Four of the ALCS after Dave Roberts stole second, then scored on a single.

Never mind that Roberts was on base because Kevin Millar had walked, the fact that Roberts stole a base, and that it made a huge difference, does not refute the "Moneyball" philosophy.

Whaaaaa?

Sabermetrics does not espouse sitting around waiting for the three-run home run. Earl Weaver espouses that. Sabermetrics does not say that you shouldn't steal bases. Earl Weaver says that (you remember Earl, little guy, won four pennants).

Sabermetrics says that you win by getting guys on base and bring them home, and conversely, keeping your opponents off base, and making sure the ones that get on don't get home. You win by scoring more than your oppponent, and that's how you score more than your opponent.

So what's wrong with stealing bases? Nothing, a stolen base is a great thing, it moves a player up a base and brings him closer to scoring. The problem isn't stolen bases, it's when you get caught trying to steal a base. Moving up a base improves your chances of scoring, but getting thrown out -- losing both an out and the baserunner -- decreases your chances of scoring by about twice as much.

But that doesn't mean don't try to steal, it means that if you're going to steal bases, do it with guys that will usually get there safely.

Like, say, Dave Roberts, who has stolen bases at an 81% clip in his career. In the situation the Red Sox were in, stealing second wasn't just an acceptable call, it was the right call. That's not revisionist history, that's what the numbers say, and they didn't change since the playoffs.

See, the problem is that guys like Richard Griffin hate sabermetrics, but they don't understand it. It's not about sitting around waiting for home runs, it's about getting on base and hitting for power. This isn't a new fangled idea, it's how baseball games have always been won. Moving guys up with the hit and run and stolen base can help if excuted succesfully the vast majority of the time, but not as much as a couple of home runs will help (In 2003, the Twins were 94/138 stealing, creating about 1.5 runs, while the A's were 48/62, creating about 6.5 runs). If you can do these with a high rate of success, then there's no reason not to, but you shouldn't choose a player who can do this over a player who can't, but gets on base more and hits for more power. The latter player will help you win more games.

The sacrifice bunt, on the other hand, is the most overrated play in baseball. It's beloved because it's a "selfless" play, and people want something selfless to be valuable, but it simply isn't. There are very few scenarios where you're better off trading an out for a base. By choosing players who can bunt over those who can't, but get on base more and hit for more power, you'll be successful more often when those few scenarios come up, but you'll win fewer games.

The Twins don't win because they hit-and-run, sac bunt, or steal bases. They win because they have good hitters, very good starters, and outstanding relievers. They win because they have the players, not because of how they deploy them.

And the same is true of the A's. They win because they have good players. If they started bunting, stealing, hitting and running, they'd probably win fewer games, because they don't have the kinds of player that can do that, but they'd still be a good team, because they have good players.

The problem with the Blue Jays has never been that they sit around and wait for a homer, it's that they haven't had enough good players. Playing "Minnyball" wouldn't have helped the Blue Jays a damned bit last year, or the year before, and it won't help them this year. What will help them is when they start bringing in good players.

Which, incidentally, is what the Baseball Prospectus authors Griffin rips at the start of his column were critcizing the Blue Jays about. Griffin writes:

The inexplicable "cult of J.P." appears dead. Baseball Prospectus, the Bible of stats seamheads, has come down hard on the Blue Jays in its sophomorically written 2005 edition.

The honeymoon is over. The Jays front office is accused of abandoning its reverence for the three-run blast. GM J.P. Ricciardi's own stats geek, Keith Law, a former Prospectus contributor, is viewed as a traitor.

At no point in BPro's Blue Jays preview is Keith Law ripped or even called a traitor. At no point do they rip the Jays for changing their offensive philosophy. Their criticism of Toronto is:

Overpaying for unexceptional talent
Not recognizing their prospects for competing in 2005 were poor
Blocking young, cheap talent with older, expensive players who aren't really any better
Wasting draft picks
Not putting enough effort into choosing a manager

Nothing about homers, or about steals, hitting and running, or sacrifices. They're not criticizing them for losing the faith, they're criticizing them for not running their team well, the same as they criticize every other poorly-run team.

Emulating the Twins is not a bad idea, they're an organization that's developed good talent, and has been successful with a small budget. You could write a wonderful column on the merits of following Minnesota's example. You can do it without taking a crap on Oakland, you can do it without misrepresenting the views of proponents of a different way of running a team, and you can do it without being petty and myopic.

Or you could do it like Richard Griffin.

--posted at 12:27 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

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