Larry Mahnken and SG's

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

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Fabian McNally
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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

December 29, 2006

Extremely Early Projections
by SG

As we sit around waiting for a Randy Johnson trade that may come as soon as next week, I thought it'd be interesting to see where everyone projects now that Barry Zito's signed. So I took the CHONE projections I've mentioned here and ran them through Diamond Mind baseball 100 times, and here are the results. It's still way to soon to draw anything super meaningful from these.

W - Wins
L - Losses
RF - Runs For
RA - Runs Against
Div - Division titles out of 100 seasons
WC - Wild cards out of 100 seasons

Hmm, interesting to see the Yankees projecting as the best team in baseball, with Randy Johnson. We'll see how things look after a Johnson trade and the rest of the filling out of the rosters around baseball. That San Francisco projection shocked the hell out of me. They may regret that Zito signing in a few years, but for now it seems to have helped them become contenders. It looks like the Mets may regret not going the extra mile on Barry next year.

Like I said, there's still a lot of flux to come with the rosters. I will be running a larger set of these with a few different projection systems in February or March to get a hopefully better idea of how things are looking as we head into the season.

Make sure you scroll down and read Fabian's take on Darrell Rasner and the link he's provided to a couple of rotation studies too.

I'd also like to wish everyone a Happy New Year. Unless you're a Red Sox fan.