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February 27, 2007

Early ZiPS and Diamond Mind Projections
by SG

I've gotten a few emails from people asking about projections with Diamond Mind. It's still too early to run my big set, but here's a small set of 100. I'm using ZiPS this time, instead of CHONE. Both will be part of my eventual 1000 run set (along with PECOTA and Diamond Mind's own projections), coming sometime next month.

I've added a bit more information in here based on some feedback and comments I've received in the past. One thing I've done is added the results within one standard deviation of the mean for all teams for wins, runs for, and runs against to show variance. The columns under Div (Div W, Div Mode, etc.) are the values for that placing in the division. So in the AL East, the average wins to take the division was 95, to take second place was 88, etc., The last column is just the average # of wins that it took to capture the wild card in that league.

Again, it's probably still too early for this to be very meaningful. However, there's another 900+ run projection for the Yankees.