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SG
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November 29, 2006


Projecting Kei Igawa
by SG

With the Yankees winning the posting for Kei Igawa with what seems like an excessively high bid of $26 million, I guess that we should try to figure out what a reasonable expectation for him might be. Cliff Corcoran took an interesting look at Igawa on Bronx Banter already, and I'm going to take a shot as well.

Instead of using the method I used for Daisuke Matsuzaka, I'm going to try a different method which I found by Jim Albright.

Here are Igawa's career stats for Hanshin.



I took a weighted average of Igawa's last four seasons and then used Albright's factors to figure out the MLB translation. One thing to keep in mind is that Igawa played in a non-DH league, so I've added another adjustment, to account for the fact that he'll now be playing in a DH league.



That line looks a lot better than I expected. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

Of course, how a player puts up his numbers is often as important as the numbers themselves, particularly when they are coming from a new league with whole bunch of differences. So I dug around and found a scouting report on Igawa here.

“He uses a four-seamer in the 88-91 mph range, with that 92+ capability on occasion, and an above-average change that I had in the 78-81 mph area. His breaking ball is a solid slider he’ll throw mostly to lefthanders, though he did use it to backdoor some right-handed bats.

“It looked like he was playing with a different heater in some starts, perhaps a two-seamer or a sinker of some sorts, but his command of that pitch was very ordinary. His overall control is above average and he’ll probably need to be aware of the base on balls in America.

“He gets most of his strikeouts on the change and the fastball up in the zone, and I suspect he’s going to continue that trend wherever he ends up. His ground ball tendencies aren’t heavy enough to think he can be considered even a mild version of a ground ball pitcher, and the best hitters in the world will get more lift on his pitches.”


There's a lot more in the entry above, so you should check out the link. An NL Central scout says:
“He does make me think of (Jarrod) Washburn,” says one NL Central scout who was assigned to Matsuzaka, and later Igawa by his employers, who were expected to be serious contenders for both pitchers this offseason. “He’s got a little swagger in him, more than Matsuzaka, at least demonstrably. He’ll sit right in the 90mph range until he needs a big strikeout and than he reaches back for added gas. But, like Washburn, he throws quite a few fastballs up in the zone and if he misses with it, it gets hit, and that will be big for him in the U.S,”


Great. A high fastball pitcher who tops out in the low 90s.

After reading more about Igawa and running the numbers, I'm not as down on this signing as I was yesterday. While I think the Yankees overpaid for the rights to just talk to someone who looks like he'll be putting up a 4.00 ERA, there are benefits to spending the money on the posting fee. It doesn't count against the luxury tax as many readers here have mentioned, it won't cost the team a draft pick if he's signed, and it potentially opens up even more Yankee visiblity in Japan. If the projection above is right, he'll be about as good as the Ted Lilly/Gil Meche types, with a lot less salary cap impact, even if the total outlay is the same.


November 28, 2006


Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Yankees get rights to Igawa
by SG

WFAN is reporting the Yankees had the high bid for LHP Kei Igawa. More on this as it becomes available.

Igawa was 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA last season. Given what they have, he's no better than the No. 4 starter going into spring training. The winning bid was $25 million, which seems like a lot to spend on a No. 4 starter.


I don't like this very much at all. $25 million plus a contract for a guy who projects as a #4 or #5 at best? Lame.




So, What Did I Miss?
by SG

I'm back from my vacation, and of course I missed a bunch of stuff, some good, some bad. Thanks to Fabian for filling in during my absence and doing a great job with the major league stuff and his prospect reports as well.

I've been out of the loop, but here are my quick thoughts on some of the things that went down.

Yankees deal Sheffield to Tigers

On the surface, I like this move a lot. Gary Sheffield was a malcontent coming off a wrist injury and without a position on next year's team. Humberto Sanchez has tons of talent, with injuries the major concern. I'm less enthusiastic about the other two arms in the trade, as relief prospects rarely pan out. However, the Yankees got a prospect who will probably be one of their top five now, and didn't have to pay a penny towards Sheffield's $13 million deal. Seems like a good move to me.

Yanks deal Wright to O's for reliever

Another good deal. The Yankees would have owed Jaret Wright $4 million, so they basically traded Wright for a serviceable right-handed reliever in Chris Britton. Britton throws in the low 90s with a slider and changeup. The big issue with him seems to be his weight, but he gives the Yankees a little more depth in the bullpen at a time when people like Danys Baez are being paid $6 milion a year to very likely give a similar performance to someone like Britton at 1/10 the cost.

Red Sox bid $51.1 million for Matsuzaka

What. The. F...?

I wanted Matsuzaka badly, but I see no way he's going to be worth $20-25 million a season, which could end up being the final tally once the posting fee is added to his contract.

Morneau named AL MVP

Wow. This is bad. Derek Jeter wasn't necessarily a slam dunk MVP candidate by any means, but Morneau is a worse selection than about 10 other people, including two on HIS OWN TEAM! This is inexplicable to me. I guess Jeter can console himself with Jessica Biel as a consolation prize.

Yankees re-sign Mussina

I like this signing too. Moose can probably be penciled in for 375 league average or better innings for the next two seasons. With the current market for pitching, this deal seems like a good one.

The Yankees still need to fill the role of backup catcher. I was hoping they could snag Greg Zaun, although he is apparently returning to Toronto. The rest of the free agent catching group is pretty lackluster, although someone like Mike Lieberthal may be a good fit. He's been a starter for most of his career, although he's getting a bit older and banged up and may appreciate a shot at a ring as a backup if the money's right. They also still need to fill the starting 1B position, preferably with a solid right-handed bat. Shea Hillenbrand and Wes Helms don't really intrigue me, and while Craig Wilson has a pretty solid track record, his 100 disappointing Yankee AB likely mean he won't be back. I suppose a trade is a possibility, although I'd hate to see the Yankees tearing up the farm just as they're starting to build it back up to respectability.

There's likely more moves to be made in the area of the starting pitching too. If I were the Yankees, I'd talk to Roger Clemens now and see if he'd be interested in one last go. None of the other options really interests me that much.


November 21, 2006


Sheer Idiocy
by Larry Mahnken

Justin Morneau is one of the worst choices for MVP ever. EVER. Not THE worst, but up there.

More later.


November 8, 2006


NY Post: BATTLE OF THE BIDS
by SG

The Yankees and Mets are expected to submit highly competitive bids on Japanese superstar pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka by 5 p.m. today, and this battle of international intrigue could make the difference in which New York team gets to the World Series next year.

Throw in the deep pockets of the Red Sox, Cubs and Rangers, and the possible dark-horse bids of the Padres, Orioles or someone else, and you have an adventure worthy of a James Bond film. Call Matsuzaka "The Man with the Golden Arm."

"He's definitely a top-of-the-rotation starter," one major-league official said yesterday. "He's one of those guys that never really throws the same pitch twice in the same sequence.

"He's a guy who should have tremendous success in the States. He's probably like [Greg] Maddux early in his prime - probably with a little more fastball."


I read somewhere that one leaked bid was for $21 million, although I can't find it right now.

I'm going to be on vacation for the next 2.5 weeks, so no new posts from me. Fabian will be trying to put up some stuff on his prospect analysis and any other newsworthy items. In the meantime, you can also check out the following blogs for your Yankees fix.

Almost Perfect

Baseball Mania

Bronx Banter

Dugout News

Eephus Pitch

Fire Joe Torre Blog

Here Comes Number 27

High and Tight

Lohud Yankees Blog

No Sense Worrying

Pending Pinstripes
Soft Hands

The Sporting Brews

The Stat Boy of the Empire

Was Watching

Yankees Chick

Yankees Fans in Foreign Lands

Yanks Blog


I hope to come back to the news that the Yankees have won the bidding for Matusaka, and that Gary Sheffield has been traded for lots of good stuff.


November 7, 2006


NY Times: Yankees Pick Up the Option on Sheffield
by SG

Gary Sheffield reported to spring training in February eager for the Yankees to exercise his $13 million option for 2007. General Manager Brian Cashman told Sheffield he expected to do so, and yesterday, he did.

The circumstances are different now, because the Yankees have Bobby Abreu to play right field. They have not ruled out bringing Sheffield back as a first baseman, but their preference is still to trade him. For all his bluster in recent weeks, Sheffield will report to whatever team ends up with him and play hard, his agent said.


The rumor mill has been pretty vague so far regarding a Sheffield trade, with the only known trade offer made by Baltimore (Kris Benson and a reliever). Thankfully that was turned down.

Also in this article is the story that Mike Mussina and the Yankees are close to agreeing on a two year, $21-23 million contract. Sounds like a good idea to me.


November 5, 2006


Top Prospect Alert: 2007 New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects
by SG

The owner of Top Prospect Alert sent me an email to let me know that they've posted the Yankees' top 10 list. Not much surprise to see Phil Hughes at #1. The rest of the list is pretty interesting, as three 2006 draftees are in the top 10, which could either mean that the Yankees had a good draft, or had a bad farm system.


November 3, 2006


"Gold Glove" Defense by Week
by SG

Since J asked about Derek Jeter's defensive trend in 2006, here are the numbers by week.



To illustrate the improvement Jeter made over the season, here is a graph comparing Jeter's ZR with the league average at the end of each week.



Jeter ended the season playing fairly well defensively. He's close enough to average over the last few seasons by ZR that I feel comfortable he's not some horrible defensive shortstop who costs the team 2-3 wins a season with his glove. He's just not a Gold Glover.

In other news, the Yankees are reviewing their options (get it?) with Mike Mussina and Jaret Wright. Wright was serviceable, but with a $4 million buyout, the question becomes if he's worth the additional $3 million it would cost to have him on the team in 2007. I don't think so, but I wonder if Wright plus $5.5 million could fetch a prospect from a team in the NL. Probably not.

Jim Kaat is a candidate for the Frick Award, which would get him into the Hall of Fame. He's wasn't quite good enough to get in as a player, which Kaat himself will freely acknowledge, but I hope he gets this.


November 2, 2006


Yankees.com: Jeter wins third straight Gold Glove
by SG

NEW YORK -- Derek Jeter added another piece of hardware to his trophy case on Thursday, capturing his third consecutive Rawlings Gold Glove Award.


I don't have much to say about this, except to present the following chart sans commentary.





Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Seattle bails on Matsuzaka
by SG

From Peter Abraham's fine Yankee blog:
I've done a little writing for Sports Nippon in Japan. My editor from that paper told me tonight that the big news in Japan is that Seattle does not plan to make a bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka.

The Mariners are controlled by the same Japanese company that owns Nintendo. Despite their resources, they apparently don't want to spend the $70 or $80 million it could ultimately take to get the right-hander.

It would be almost shocking at this point if the Yankees don't end up with him. The Mets have the resources but have been burned many times by Japanese players. The Red Sox could get in the mix, too. But I suspect the Yankees will blow everybody out of the water. They've drawn eight million fans the last two seasons. That's a lot of $8 beer.


Thanks to Cutter for the heads-up.

Interesting, although I still think another team could win the posting process depending on their desperation.

A few more links.

Seattle PI: Matsuzaka too pricey for M's
Seattle Times: Mariners won't bid on Japanese star Matsuzaka
MLB.com : Mariners won't bid for Matsuzaka

According to this article, Matsuzaka will be posted today, and teams will have until next Wednesday at midnight to submit their sealed bids. They also mention the Yankees having some interest in Jason Schmidt and Jeff Suppan.