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September 1, 2006

More Fun with Log5
by SG

The Yankees closed out August with a 6-4 win over Detroit yesterday at the Stadium. Yesterday's game also closed out a pretty rough section of the schedule, which Larry and I both took shots at projecting. I used Bill James's log5 method but slightly incorrectly, ending up with a projected record of 12-12. Larry made a few tweaks and re-ran it and got a projected record of 13-11, which ended up being exactly what the Yankees did.

So, I figured I'd run throught it once more for the rest of the season to see where the Yankees may end up, and who they might face in the playoffs, so I ran log5 for the Yanks, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox. Even though Boston's odds of taking the AL East are down to 0.5%, I'm keeping them in the mix too.

So here's where they are right now.

If we use log5 for each team's remaining games with their actual winning percentage, we get the following standings at the end of the season.

And if we run through it once more, this time using Pythagorean winning percentage, we get these standings.

It still looks like the Yankees have a decent shot at home field, especially if Detroit's struggles continue. I'd love to see Chicago and Minnesota tie for the wild card and have to play a playoff game against each other. It seems the AL East winner is going to get the wild card team, and the AL Central winner the AL West winner.

I think the Yankees are going to use their lead to rest people for the postseason, and I think it makes sense. I'd rather have a mostly healthy team going into the playoffs without home field advantage than a team with home field advantage and a lot of tired players.

September first means expanded rosters, and the Yankees are planning on calling up catcher Wil Nieves and pitchers T.J. Beam and Jose Veras today.

Andy Phillips is expected back from the DL over the weekend, and Darrell Rasner will start Sunday against Minnesota.