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Looking Ahead to 2006 - Shawn Chacon
by SG

Much like Chien-Ming Wang, Shawn Chacon came out of nowhere(in a figurative sense) to play a key role in the Yankees making the playoffs. Chacon was acquired from the Colorado Rockies on July 28, for minor league relievers Ramon Ramirez and Eduardo Sierra. He came over with a 2-16 record in his last 18 decisions over 2004 and 2005, although he carried a respectable 4.09 ERA for a Colorado pitcher when the Yankees got him.

Colorado is a crazy place for a pitcher. It has always been my belief that there is no way to assess the quality of someone who pitches half their games there. I firmly believe that even their road stats will get skewed, because of the type of negative conditioning that can happen when your breaking ball does not break as much and balls carry farther than they would at a more reasonable altitude. Chacon's 2004 scouting report certainly indicated the talent to be a good starter.

Chacon is a competitor, which was a reason the Rockies tried him in relief. However, he has to channel that competitiveness and not try to overthrow, particularly his curveball. The hard curve, his big pitch, isn't bothered by the Colorado altitude, but he needs to be ahead in the count so that hitters can't lay off it. As a starting pitcher, Chacon has shown a fastball that is consistent from 92-94 MPH, but as a reliever he'd have games he wouldn't hit 90 MPH. He has a solid changeup, but the pitch was missing in action when he was in relief and he was reluctant to use his full assortment. He also has a cutter which he now uses instead of a slider against lefthanded hitters.

Chacon was superb for the Yankees, going 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA, with a quality start (6 or more innings, 3 or fewer runs) in 9 of his 12 starts.

So obviously, this is a tale of vindication for Chacon's talent, and how he pitched for the Yankees is indicative of how he can be expected to do going forward, right?

Unfortunately, that is very unlikely to be the case, at least if you look at his underlying peripheral stats.

Chacon's difference between his FIP (fielding independent pitching) and actual ERA was massive, as you can see in the chart below.

Chacon's HR, BB, and K rate indicate that he pitched at a level between a 3-4.50 ERA as a Yankee, although his ERA was under 3 for almost his entire time in pinstripes. It gets even worse if you look at his xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching). When you normalize Chacon's HR rate, he ends up with an xFIP of 5.33. This is explained by the fact that he's a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher and should probably have allowed an additional 3 HRs as a Yankee.

A look at some of his situational splits can explain a lot of his peripheral-defying success. These splits do include his time in Colorado this season, but it's still pretty interesting to see

2005


Split                   Avg. A  G       AB      H       2B      3B      HR      RBI     SB      CS      BB      K       GDP
None on                 .286    27      311     89      26      2       10      10      0       0       37      35      0
Runners on              .186    27      247     46      9       0       4       43      7       3       29      44      11
Scoring Posn            .167    26      144     24      3       0       3       39      2       0       23      28      2
Bases Loaded            .188    9       16      3       0       0       0       11      0       0       1       4       0
None on/out             .283    27      138     39      12      0       6       6       0       0       18      12      0
None on: 1/2 Out        .289    26      173     50      14      2       4       4       0       0       19      23      0
ScPos/2 Out             .169    26      65      11      2       0       2       18      2       0       12      13      0
Runner on 2nd           .109    21      55      6       0       0       1       4       1       0       5       12      0
Runner on 3rd           .294    14      17      5       1       0       0       7       0       0       6       2       0
Runners 1st, 2nd        .161    19      31      5       2       0       0       4       0       0       4       3       2
Runners 1st, 3rd        .133    13      15      2       0       0       2       8       1       0       3       5       0
Runners 2nd, 3rd        .300    9       10      3       0       0       0       5       0       0       4       2       0

With no runners on base, Chacon was far more hittable. However, in most situations when he needed to get out of a jam, he was able to do it. I've seen it posited that part of this is that since he worked as a reliever in 2004, he was better when pitching out of stretch. This made no sense to me considering how bad he was as a reliever, so I looked at his career situational splits.

Career


Split                   Avg. A  G       AB      H       2B      3B      HR      RBI     SB      CS      BB      K       GDP
None on                 .266    164     1333    355     86      11      55      55      0       0       160     228     0
Runners on              .241    155     1056    254     56      8       34      270     36      10      163     197     45
Scoring Posn            .235    145     634     149     35      6       19      227     9       2       113     132     11
Bases Loaded            .232    46      56      13      2       1       3       51      0       0       5       13      2
None on/out             .262    163     596     156     38      4       28      28      0       0       75      101     0
None on: 1/2 Out        .270    157     737     199     48      7       27      27      0       0       85      127     0
ScPos/2 Out             .234    136     304     71      16      3       9       96      6       0       56      66      0
Runner on 2nd           .260    111     219     57      13      2       5       46      1       1       45      45      0
Runner on 3rd           .241    63      58      14      2       0       1       22      0       0       24      16      0
Runners 1st, 2nd        .195    105     185     36      10      1       4       40      1       1       16      37      8
Runners 1st, 3rd        .240    65      75      18      3       2       5       38      7       0       10      15      1
Runners 2nd, 3rd        .268    40      41      11      5       0       1       30      0       0       13      6       0

Pitching better in jams was not something that Chacon has previously demonstrated an ability to do.

I don't want to sound too negative on Chacon, because I honestly feel that his whole career to this point does not provide us with accurate data to assess how good he can be going forward. I would even take his Yankee tenure with a grain of salt as I am sure the memories of pitching in Coors were still in head last year. However, it is important to realize that his impressive run last year was fueled by an unsustainably low batting average on balls in play, and that he will very probably need to show improvement in either his BB rate, his K rate, his HR rate, or a combination of the three to mitigate the expected regression in that area.

If Chacon returns to the 92-94 mph fastball that he had in Coors per the scouting report above, I think he could be a dominant pitcher. Unfortunately, I have not seen that as a Yankee yet, either last year, or so far this spring. Regardless, despite what these numbers say, I am cautiously optimistic that Chacon can be a league average starter. Plus, he's just fun to watch. He's got a bit of bad-ass to him which I find enjoyable.

Chacon's performance is not the only thing that we have to be concerned about, unfortunately. There is also the question about his durability. After pitching 160 innings in his rookie season, Chacon has never pitched more than 152.2, which came last year. He was in fact moved to the bullpen by Colorado in 2004 because of questions about his durability.

If I haven't painted a bleak enough picture yet, maybe the projections can finish the job.

In 2005, Chacon was responsible for 46 PRC in just 79 Yankee innings, which was about 15 runs above what an average pitcher would have done in the same playing time.

The projection systems call for around 130 innings for Chacon. This is partly depressed by his time as a reliever, but it's also an acknowledgement of his durability issues. He's certainly appeared to be as healthy as a Yankee, but it's tough to argue with five years of data that show a trend.

I'm tempted to throw all these numbers out and just make a WAG, because of the Coors issue. However, I don't feel that is consistent with what I've been doing so far. I'll go with his average projection of 130 innings, and 50 PRC, and keep my fingers crossed for more. I do feel that Chacon is more likely than anyone on the Yankees to obliterate his projections, in a good way. Chacon is still relatively young, and pitchers are far more likely to break out at any time than position players, since it is easier for them to raise their talent level.

To continue the relative comparison to last year, Chacon's projected 130 innings will cover his 79 innings, the 9 innings left over from the carcass of Kevin Brown, and I'll throw in 42 of Al Leiter's innings. Those 130 innings were worth about 62 PRC in 2005, which makes Chacon 2006 a one win downgrade, relative to last season.
So now we have 700 innings taken up by the starters at a total value of 314 PRC. Compared to 700 innings from RJ, Moose, Wang, Chacon, Brown, and Leiter last year, which were worth 316 PRC. It's pretty close to a stand-still so far.

Spring Training Update
Robinson Cano has drawn 3 walks in 26 spring PA. Even more impressive, he has only struck out once.

Jaret Wright still stinks. I can't wait to write his looking ahead piece.

Darrell Rasner has looked pretty good when I've seen him. I love his chances of contributing this year.

Joe Torre says the Yankees are likely to break camp without Carl Pavano. Since they won't need a fifth starter for a while, this isn't a big deal, but I wonder if it means Kevin Thompson breaking camp as an extra for a few weeks?

--posted at 8:20 AM by SG / |

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