Larry Mahnken and SG's | ||
| Replacement Level Yankees Weblog |
![]() |
"Hey, it's free!" |
|
Featuring: Larry Mahnken SG sjohnny TVerik Sean McNally Fabian McNally John Brattain This is an awesome FREE site, where you can win money and gift certificates with no skill involved! If you're bored, I HIGHLY recommend checking it out! ![]() ![]() The New York Yankees Vintage World Series Films DVD Set, available from A&E. Yankees Tickets World Series Tickets MLB All Star Tickets NFL Tickets Purchase your Onlineseats.com is your #1 source for MLB tickets, NY Mets Tickets, Cubs Tickets, Yankees Tickets, Red Sox Tickets, Giants Tickets, Astros Tickets, Angels Tickets, Phillies Tickets.
Buy all your MLB Tickets,
Laser Keyboard Brazil Flowers TickCo.com for premium New York Yankees Tickets Boston Red Sox Tickets Chicago white Sox Tickets A's Tickets Angels Tickets New York Mets Tickets St Louis Cardinals Tickets Cubs Tickets Dodgers Tickets "I'm not a pessimist, I'm an optimist. Things are really worse than I say they are." - Steve South A-Rod Cover Counter ![]() Appearances
January 2001 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 LINKS Yankees Sites and Columnists Nomaas.org General Baseball Sites & Columnists At Home Plate Rotoauthority.com The Book Blog - Playing the Percentages in Baseball(Tango, MGL, Dolphin) Yankees Blogs Almost Perfect Baby Bombers Baseball Mania Bronx Banter Bugs and Cranks Canyon of Heroes Dugout News Eephus Pitch Here Comes Number 27 High and Tight Lohud Yankees Blog No Sense Worrying Pinstripe Potentials River Ave. Blues Soft Hands The Stat Boy of the Empire Was Watching Yankees Chick Yankees Fans in Foreign Lands Yanks Blog Other Team Blogs Anaheim Angels All the Way Bucco Blog San Francisco Giants Blog Viva El Birdos Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary! "Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity." "Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and
said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
"Boring and predictable."
"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream
media."
This site is best viewed with a monitor. |
Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away. March 8, 2006
Looking Ahead to 2006 - Chien-Ming Wang by SG From the depths of allegedly the worst farm system in the history of organized baseball, emerged a Taiwanese flame-thrower who did not strike anyone out. Somehow, despite this inability to whiff batters, and playing in front of a defensively challenged infield, Chien-Ming Wang managed to pitch 116 innings to an ERA of just 4.02, and helped the Yankees rebound from an 11-19 start to win the AL East. Wang was called up on April 30, and beat the Blue Jays 4-2. From there through July 8, Wang went with a 3.89 ERA. Then came the news that Wang had a rotator cuff tear and would miss the season.A check with James Andrews downgraded the severity of Wang's injury, and he was able to return in September to make five more starts. Wang had major shoulder surgery in 2000 that caused him to miss 2001. Here's a pre-season scouting report on Wang. Wang's low strikeout rate is the chief reason to be concerned about his performance in 2006. The injury history and the fact that last year was a career-high in innings is another. However, a look at Wang's BB rate and K rate over the course of 2005 gives some cause for optimism. ![]() Wang's BB rate decreased slightly and his K rate increased slightly as the season progressed. Unfortunately, the HR rate creeped up a bit as well. Wang was an extreme groundball pitcher last year, which kept his HR rate low enough to pitch to a 4.22 FIP, despite his obscenely low strikeout rate. How extreme of a groundballer can be seen in the pie chart below (thanks to Gotham Dark Knight for upgrading us so we are no longer one of the worst Yankee blogs): ![]() HR rate tends to correlate more closely to fly ball rate than to itself every year, which is reflected in the statistic xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching), which normalizes a pitcher's HR rate to 10% of his fly ball rate. Wang's xFIP was 4.39, which is still a very good number for a young starting pitcher, and would make him an average starter. The graph below shows Wang's ERA and FIP over the course of 2005. As you can see, they line up very closely post-surgery. As much as people want to point to Wang's K rates as "proof" that he was a complete fluke, there is a mountain of other evidence that shows that they are wrong. He pitched about as well as his final numbers say he did. ![]() While I am concerned about his ability to miss bats, I'm less concerned from watching him pitch. This is a guy who throws in the low to mid 90s with sick downward movement. For comparison, here are Wang's peripherals from the minors vs. the majors:
I think he will bump his K rate up a bit, enough to off-set any regression in either his control or his HR rate. The other concern, which I think is far more valid, is Wang's durability. Prior to last season, Wang's high for innings in a season was 149.1. Last year he pitched 150.1. I think the Yankees need to be careful with him this year, and try to skip him a few times if possible. I wouldn't want to see him pitch more than 170-180 innings this year. So how about the projection systems and what they see for Wang in 2006? ![]() In 2005, Wang was responsible for 43 pitching runs created over 116 innings, which was actually about 3 runs below average due to his low K rate. Still, average to slightly below average pitching is still a valuable thing, particularly for a strong offensive team. The projection systems call for something in the neighborhood of 140 innings for Wang. I have no idea if he will get hurt or not, but if he is healthy all season, this is a low estimate. I'll assume that he gets up to 180 innings or so this year, and taking the average of the 3 projections would make Wang worth about 69 PRC. As far as a comparison to last year, I'll say Wang is taking his 116 innings and then another 64 from the dearly departed Kevin Brown. Wang 2005 + 64 innings of Brown 2005 were worth 60 PRC, so 2006 Wang should be about 9 more PRC, or close to one win. So now we have 570 innings taken up by RJ, Moose, and Wang, at a total value of 264 PRC. Compared to 570 innings from RJ, Moose, and Wang + Brown last year, which were worth 254 PRC. There's another win upgrade, relative to last year. Spring Training Update The Yankees shut the Twins out 5-0 yesterday. Hideki Matsui is killing the ball right now, and Jorge Posada went yard off Brad Radke. Kevin Thompson showed that he still has some learning to do in the OF, horribly reading a fly ball from Torii Hunter that became a triple, but following it up with very nice catch later in the game. Shawn Chacon pitched three solid innings, although his velocity is still not where I'd like to see it. The man just seems to know how to pitch. Mariano Rivera made his spring debut and threw 6 pitches in a 1-2-3 inning. I wouldn't pay too much mind to the Giambi and Sheffield situation yet. Older guys who are just reporting to camp are a bit sore? Hardly a shock, and hardly worth worrying about, yet. --posted at 7:38 AM by SG / |
|