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Can the 2006 Yankees score 1000 runs?
by SG

The addition of Johnny Damon has "experts" everywhere predicting that the Yankees may score 1000 runs this year. While the talent may be on hand to actually do it, based on the 3000 seasons I ran in Diamond Mind, the odds of it actually happening are about .4% (it happened in 13 out of 3000 runs). So what would it take for the Yankees to score 1000? Here are the sample stats for a season where the Yankees scored 1007.


Name            AVG     OBP     SPC     AB      H       2B      3B      HR      R       RBI     HBP     BB      K       SB      CS
Alex Rodriguez  .300    .386    .576    627     188     21      1       50      132     160     13      77      140     22      10
Johnny Damon*   .323    .382    .472    625     202     31      4       18      121     70      3       60      56      15      5
Derek Jeter     .293    .356    .413    618     181     29      3       13      121     73      14      48      96      20      6
Hideki Matsui*  .305    .382    .523    596     182     41      1       29      116     99      1       78      83      2       3
Robinson Cano*  .324    .354    .481    586     190     46      8       10      76      93      2       27      77      0       1
Jason Giambi*   .235    .379    .473    548     129     22      0       36      100     102     15      114     142     1       0
Gary Sheffield  .273    .351    .486    512     140     25      0       28      98      98      7       57      71      12      3
Jorge Posada#   .233    .347    .414    473     110     23      0       21      81      88      3       85      87      3       3
Bernie Williams#.214    .287    .381    420     90      16      0       18      63      64      0       45      64      0       0
Andy Phillips   .313    .382    .667    201     63      8       0       21      43      58      0       24      29      0       2
Kelly Stinnett  .230    .282    .331    139     32      5       0       3       10      16      1       9       34      0       0
Bubba Crosby*   .220    .254    .273    132     29      4       0       1       13      16      2       4       23      6       0
Miguel Cairo    .245    .306    .353    102     25      6       1       1       13      10      2       7       10      3       3
Felix Escalona  .200    .256    .250    80      16      1       0       1       6       11      3       3       16      0       0
Kevin Thompson  .169    .286    .308    65      11      1       1       2       11      8       2       9       17      7       2
Melky Cabrera#  .143    .143    .143    14      2       0       0       0       2       0       0       0       3       1       0
Mitch Jones     .000    .154    .000    11      0       0       0       0       1       0       0       2       5       0       0
Team Totals     .277    .357    .463    5749    1590    279     19      252     1007    966     68      649     953     92      38

Outside of Damon, none of these lines look particularly unreasonable. Cano's batting average looks high, but his home run output seems short. In fact, in the cases of Giambi, Sheffield, Posada, and Jeter, they look kind of low. The biggest obstacle is probably not performance of the starting nine, but how often they can take the field. There's not much depth on this team, and it could potentially be a big problem.

Spring Training Update
The Yanks beat the Red Sox, 5-4 last night. Unfortunately, prior to the game Jorge Posada suffered a broken nose when he was hit on a throw by Kelly Stinnett. It doesn't seem too bad, as they expect Posada to be back in around five games, which is good, because the Yankees need Posada's bat badly. Stinnett as a starter with Wil Nieves backing him up is a frightening proposition.

It was nice to see Bernie Williams homering and doubling off ~~Roger Clemens~~ Jon Papelbon. I was very annoyed to see the Red Sox start hitting Yankees again in a spring training game. I am convinced that Riske's pitch to Derek Jeter was intentional, and was glad Tanyon Sturtze retaliated.

While I'm happy to see Bernie doing well, part of me worries that he's just locking up the starting DH job in order to resume sucking once the games count. My first preference is obviously a rebound by Bernie. Even if he can just match 2004, he'd be a decent, if unspectacular DH. If 2005 is what Bernie is now, I pray he doesn't keep getting run out there due to his tenure as a Yankee. It's not fair to Bernie's legacy, and it's not fair to the 2006 Yankees.

Papelbon's 92 mph straight fastball seems to be tailor-made for Gary Sheffield to crush, so I was disappointed when all he could do was fly out on two of them when it looked like he hit both solidly. Sheffield is having an awful spring, although it's probably not worth worrying about.

Shawn Chacon was reasonably effective, but the longer spring training goes and the more I see him topping out at 88 mph, the less convinced I am that he's for real. Granted, velocity is not the end all/be all of a pitcher's ability, but it'd make me feel a little better about his shaky peripherals if his stuff was a little stronger.

How awesome is Mariano Rivera? The way he sawed off Wily Mo Pena was just amazing. Pena scares the hell out of me by the way. Very astute pickup by the Red Sox, I fear.

Mike Myers, Tanyon Sturtze, and Kyle Farnsworth finished the game up, and all looked decent, although Farnsworth served up a homerun to Adam Stern in the ninth.

Honestly, I don't think I can take this Damon to the Yankees foolishness. If every Boston game is going to be covered like this it's going to be freaking painful to watch. And I agree with Jeteupthemiddle, Michael Kay is already in mid-season form as far as annoying me, although I do like Jim Kaat most of the time. As long as Kaat sticks to the mechanical aspects of pitching and telling his stories from his time as a player, I think he's great.

--posted at 6:04 AM by SG / |

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