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FIP, xFIP and the 2005 Yankees
by SG

A few weeks ago, I used JC Bradbury's PrOPS to look a little deeper into the performance of the Yankees hitters. I thought I should look at some more of the Hardball Times' stats, this time for the Yankee pitchers. Some of the stats below are self explanatory, but here's a synopsis of the ones you may not be familiar with, from the Hardball Times' stats glossary:

PR (Pitching Runs): Invented by John Thorn and Pete Palmer, this is a measure of the number of runs a pitcher saved compared to average. The formula is league-average RA/IP minus park-adjusted RA/IP, times total innings pitched.

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

xFIP: Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly, and adjusted for the home run tendencies of the ballpark. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.

LD%: Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.

DER: Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-0.6*E)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. In this case, this is the defensive efficiency behind a particular pitcher, the percentage of batted balls turned into outs. League average DER in the AL last year was .700, which means that 70% of the balls hit into play were converted into outs.

       *PR    IP      RA     ERA    FIP     FIP-ERA *xFIP   *ERA   LD%     DER    G/F    IF/F   K/G   BB/G  HR/G    *HR/F  
Rivera       23    78.3    2.07   1.38   2.19    0.82    3.02    346    14.20%  0.762  1.98   0.1    10    2.3   0.25    0.04
Gordon       18    80.7    2.79   2.57   3.72    1.15    3.96    186    11.60%  0.766  1.51   0.09   8.2   3.4   0.94    0.11
Johnson      17    225.7   4.07   3.79   3.82    0.03    3.67    126    16.70%  0.717  1.18   0.1    8.8   2     1.33    0.14
Chacon       16    79      2.96   2.85   4.57    1.72    5.33    167    16.90%  0.761  1.14   0.28   4.6   3.5   0.81    0.1
Small        13    76      3.2    3.2    3.92    0.72    5.06    149    19.30%  0.728  1.22   0.19   4.5   2.9   0.48    0.05
Wang         3     116.3   4.49   4.02   4.24    0.22    4.39    118    14.10%  0.735  2.9    0.09   3.7   2.5   0.71    0.11
Mussina      2     179.7   4.66   4.41   4.05    -0.36   4.18    108    17.60%  0.678  1.22   0.09   7.1   2.3   1.15    0.12
Groom        0     25.7    4.91   4.91   4.74    -0.17   5.41    97     16.10%  0.678  1.17   0.03   4.3   2.3   0.99    0.08
Bean         0     2       4.5    4.5    4.06    -0.44   4.84    106    40.00%  0.8    2      0      8.5   8.5   0       0
Graman       -1    1.3     13.5   13.5   17.32   3.81    12.25   35     0.00%   0.667  0.75   0.25   0     8.5   4.25    0.32
Rodriguez    -1    32.3    5.01   5.01   4.79    -0.22   6.02    95     18.70%  0.705  1.07   0.17   4.7   5.2   0.52    0.06
Mendoza      -1    1       18     18     14.06   -3.94   4.18    26     0.00%   0.667  1      0      7.7   0     7.65    0.49
Sturtze      -2    78      4.96   4.73   4.84    0.11    5.08    101    14.60%  0.73   1.23   0.13   5.2   3.1   1.15    0.12
DePaula      -2    6.7     8.1    8.1    7.41    -0.69   6.55    59     8.30%   0.727  0.69   0.15   3.8   3.8   2.55    0.18
Anderson     -2    5.7     7.94   7.94   6.06    -1.88   9.37    60     16.70%  0.778  0.25   0.08   2.8   9.9   0       0
Karsay       -2    6       7.5    6      2.4     -3.6    3.7     79     13.60%  0.545  2.8    0      6.6   2.6   0       0
Stanton      -4    14      7.07   7.07   3.56    -3.51   4.53    67     28.30%  0.644  0.88   0.06   7.2   3.6   0.6     0.06
Franklin     -5    12.7    8.53   6.39   4.64    -1.75   5.96    75     10.80%  0.73   0.74   0.21   6.7   5.4   0.67    0.06
Redding      -5    1       54     54     11.06   -42.94  14.18   9      40.00%  0.2    0.5    0.5    7     13.9  0       0
Embree       -6    14.3    8.79   7.54   4.6     -2.94   5.18    63     16.70%  0.667  1.05   0.18   4.5   1.7   1.13    0.11
Quantrill    -7    32      6.75   6.75   5.25    -1.5    5.61    71     22.50%  0.653  1.04   0.04   2.8   1.8   1.28    0.1
Proctor      -8    44.7    6.45   6.04   5.64    -0.41   5.38    79     17.40%  0.731  0.57   0.17   6.9   3.3   1.92    0.15
Leiter       -9    62.3    6.06   5.49   4.57    -0.92   5.59    87     18.10%  0.69   1.26   0.23   5.9   5     0.52    0.07
May          -9    7       16.71  16.71  10.92   -5.79   5.94    29     25.00%  0.643  1.18   0.09   3     3     4.03    0.39
Henn         -10   11.3    12.71  11.12  8.89    -2.23   7.92    43     17.00%  0.659  1.11   0.06   1.9   6.9   1.88    0.17
Pavano       -13   100     5.94   4.77   4.93    0.16    4.45    100    18.50%  0.673  1.59   0.11   4.8   1.6   1.47    0.17
Wright       -17   63.7    7.21   6.08   5.42    -0.66   5.55    78     23.00%  0.671  1.43   0.14   4.3   4.1   1.01    0.13
Brown        -18   73.3    7      6.5    3.65    -2.86   4.42    73     19.90%  0.615  1.73   0.08   5.5   2.1   0.55    0.07

The first thing that stands out is how good Mariano Rivera was last year. Despite pitching only 78.1 innings, he prevented more runs by pitching runs than any pitcher on the Yankee staff. Mariano scores very high in DER and his HR/F ratio is very low, but in his case I think this is due to his cutter, and not due to luck or a fluke. Hitters just don't take good cuts off of him, and rarely make solid contact, which is also indicated by his low LD%. The FIP-ERA is a little concerning, but even if he pitches to his FIP of 2.19 that's a damn good pitcher.

Tom Gordon also had a good year, although his peripheral stats indicate a bit more luck than Mariano. His HR rate was about what you would expect, but given his other stats FIP says his ERA should have been closer to 4. This seems to indicate that the Yankees made the right move in letting Gordon walk. However, he was very solid last year and he will leave a big hole in the pen which hopefully Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel can fill.

Next up, Randy Johnson. Johnson had a disappointing year by his standards, but finished the year strong and was the best Yankee starter over the full season. Johnson's peripherals did not deviate much from his raw pitching line, but hopefully the Johnson of the last two months of the season shows up a bit more frequently in 2006. Given his age, it's not a certainty.

Shawn Chacon had a remarkably effective half-season in Pinstripes, but there are big flashing warning signs in his peripheral stats. Chacon's actual ERA of 2.85 was almost two runs lower than his FIP, and he had a very high DER behind him. As a slight fly ball pitcher (1.14 vs. league average of 1.23), his HR rate was about where you'd expect it, but given his walk rate and K rate, he should have gotten hit harder. I would expect some regression from Chacon unless he was acclimating himself to pitching at sea level and can improve his command. I'd also like to see the return of his 94 mph fastball from Colorado, and not the 88-90 he was throwing last year.

Everyone's favorite journeyman, Aaron Small was next on the Yankees, saving 13 runs over the average pitcher during his short stint as a Yankee. It's a bit concerning to see that Chacon and Small were second and third of all the Yankee starters in PR despite pitching only 255 innings between them. Small's peripherals seem to also predict a pretty big fall this year, and while I'd like to think the Yankees could get something of value for him based on his impressive numbers last year, they will probably not get enough to justify the weakening of the rotation and bullpen depth that he provides. I'll continue to root for him because it's a great story, but I'm not expecting much from Small this year.

Chien-Ming Wang was another pleasant surprise for a Yankee team that needed it badly. Despite his low K rate, his FIP and xFIP were both pretty good, as a function of his strong groundball tendencies and pretty good control. IF he can bump his K rate up he could be a #2 starter. If he can't, he's still a solid 3 or 4. Given the going rate for mediocre starting pitching, Wang is going to be a big part of the Yankees' fortunes over the next few seasons. He'll always have the lingering shoulder issue, but he looked pretty strong on his return in September, so hopefully he can put that in the background.

Mike Mussina appears to have become an injury prone league average starter at this point in his career. While 180 innings of average pitching is a fine thing, it's not worth $20 million a year. Moose's peripherals were actually better than his raw numbers, as he gave up slightly more homers than would have been expected and about 1/3 run a game more than his FIP says he should have. I'd expect more of the same from Mussina next year.

That's it. That's all the Yankee pitchers that were above average last year. Kind of sad, huh?

Buddy Groom, Wayne Franklin, Alan Embree, and Darrell May are all gone, thankfully. They'll be replaced by Mike Myers and Ron Villone, which will hopefully be an upgrade over the -20 runs they gave the Yankees. Al Leiter's -9 is hopefully heading for the YES network to discuss irony and deep fly balls with Michael Kay, and not to the pitcher's mound.

Colter Bean and Jason Anderson didn't accrue enough time for their numbers to have any meaning. Scott Proctor was about as bad as his numbers, but I think that's a function of his usage. Rather than being interesting in Jeff Nelson as a ROOGY, why not just let Proctor fill that role? He held righties to a .217/.270/.358 line last year, but lefties tatooed him. Perhaps bringing in Villone and Myers can restrict Proctor's appearances against lefties and make him more effective. Tanyon Sturtze actually pitched ok overall, allowing two runs more than an average pitcher in the middle of the pen. However, his shoulder is still bothering him, according to this Newsday article:

Tanyon Sturtze took his late 2005 right shoulder woes seriously enough to spend his offseason in Manhattan so he could make thrice-weekly visits to a Columbia-Presbyterian specialist. Tests showed the Yankees reliever's pitching shoulder to be "worn down and weak," Sturtze said Friday at Mohegan Sun.

He was scheduled to fly to Tampa today so he could attempt to throw off a mound this week at the club's minor-league complex.

The Yankees very much need a healthy Sturtze, given that Kyle Farnsworth is guaranteed to be a colossal flop and Octavio Dotel is no guarantee to get healthy.

Farnsworth is guaranteed to be a flop? Do we get our money back then? And how come Davidoff is willing to guarantee Farnsworth flopping but not willing to guarantee Dotel's health one way or the other? I feel ripped off.

Lastly, there's the three-headed monstrosity known as Kevin Brown, Jaret Wright, and Carl Pavano. The Yankees paid these three $29 million for
-48 PR. That is what you call a bad investment. Thankfully, Brown is gone. I still think the Yankees are exploring trading Pavano but by making public proclamations of their desire to keep him they are trying to pump up his value. It's probably also in their best interest to bring him to spring training to show that he is healthy before moving him. If he's not traded, he'll be in the rotation, with Wright looking like the odd man out.

$29 million for the equivalent of five losses over the average pitcher. Ugh. This is where the Yankees' can make improvements that are less apparent than the typical splashy free agent signings. They need to do a better job of filling out the back end of their pitching staff and their bench, and getting rid of people who will provide below replacement level value which costs them wins because they are "experienced" or "proven veterans that know how to play in New York." They need to take some chances on unproven players who may surprise instead of settling for consistent mediocrity. They could have gotten better performances than they got out of Wright, Brown, and Pavano at one tenth of the cost. Calling up Wang and trading for Chacon are just two examples of that.

I am hopeful that the pitching will be a little better next year overall. I base this on the jettisoning of people like Kevin Brown, Paul Quantrill, Mike Stanton, Wayne Franklin, Alan Embree, etc., and also because of the upgrade of Johnny Damon in CF over Bernie Williams/Tony Womack, as well as my hope that first half Alex Rodriguez does not show up on defense, which seemed to really kill Carl Pavano last year. They'd better hope so anyway, because I don't see much else changing on the pitching staff now, except perhaps some tweaking of the back-end of the bullpen.

--posted at 8:10 AM by SG / |

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