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December 24, 2005

Will Johnny Damon's Fenway Flyouts = Yankee Stadium HRs?
by SG

"I look forward to playing here for these 4 years. 81 games a year. Short right field porch. I'm thrilled" - Johnny Damon at his Yankee press conference

Given Damon's poor historic record at Yankee Stadium to this point, I wondered how much hitting in Yankee Stadium would affect him.

I decided to look at his hit charts over the last 3 years at Fenway, and see what would happen if he hit the same balls in Yankee Stadium. I'm only looking at flyouts and HRs. I wanted to see if playing in Yankee Stadium would help or hurt Damon. Flyouts are marked as red f's, HR as blue h's. I've marked the flyouts that would have most probably been HRs in Yankee Stadium in yellow.

I first looked at 2003, where Damon hit .291/.366/.425 at home, with 5 HRs.

Damon would have gained 6 HRs at Yankee Stadium in 2003, and lost none.

In 2004, Damon hit .330/.408/.479 at home, with 9 HRs.

Surprisingly, moving Damon's 2004 to Yankee Stadium would not have affected his HR output at all, either positively or negatively.

In 2005, Damon hit .334/.391/.440 at home, with 3 HRs.

According to this, Damon would have hit one more HR in 2005 if he had played his home games in the Stadium.

In 3 years, Damon would have gained a total of 7 HRs, however 6 of them would have come in 2003.

This doesn't tell us much, since it doesn't include all his other hits. It's also possible that Damon could change his swing to try and take more advantage of Yankee Stadium. I do feel a little better that Damon didn't take a ton of advantage of the Green Monster. However, looking at this, anyone expecting Damon to hit for more power than he has in his career to this point should probably temper their expectations a bit.

Also, happy holidays to all our readers. Thanks for coming by and reading our ramblings, and having good discussions in the comments.