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December 29, 2005


PrOPS and the 2005 Yankees
by SG

Over on the Hardball Times, JC Bradbury introduced a system called PrOPS. The basis behind PrOPS, is to look deeper into a player's stats and come up with a predicted OPS, based on several factors, including:

* Line drive percentage
* Groundball-to-flyball ratio
* Walk rate
* Hit-by-pitch rate
* Strikeout rate
* Home run rate
* Park factors

I don't know the specifics of how it's calculated and don't really feel like reverse engineering it right now, but thankfully the stats are available here.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the performance of the key members of the 2005 Yankees and see if any of them were particularly lucky or unlucky.


Actual Predicted Difference
BA OBP SLG OPS BA OBP SLG OPS BA OBP SLG OPS
Giambi .271 .440 .535 .975 .311 .478 .615 1.093 .040 .038 .080 .118
Rodriguez .321 .421 .610 1.031 .282 .391 .573 .964 -.039 -.030 -.037 -.067
Sheffield .291 .379 .512 .891 .289 .378 .518 .895 -.002 -.001 .006 .004
Martinez .241 .328 .439 .767 .275 .360 .500 .860 .034 .032 .061 .093
Jeter .309 .389 .450 .839 .299 .382 .436 .817 -.010 -.007 -.014 -.022
Posada .262 .352 .430 .782 .262 .351 .441 .791 .000 -.001 .011 .009
Matsui .305 .367 .496 .863 .271 .337 .431 .769 -.034 -.030 -.065 -.094
Williams .249 .321 .367 .688 .262 .334 .396 .730 .013 .013 .029 .042
Cano .297 .320 .458 .778 .280 .303 .416 .719 -.017 -.017 -.042 -.059
Sierra .229 .265 .371 .636 .242 .281 .374 .655 .013 .016 .003 .019
Flaherty .165 .206 .252 .458 .219 .262 .323 .584 .054 .056 .071 .126
Crosby .276 .304 .327 .631 .233 .263 .313 .576 -.043 -.041 -.014 -.055
Womack .249 .276 .280 .556 .234 .263 .281 .545 -.015 -.013 .001 -.011
Cabrera .211 .211 .211 .422 .234 .236 .291 .527 .023 .025 .080 .105
Phillips .150 .171 .325 .496 .172 .200 .294 .493 .022 .029 -.031 -.003
Escalona .286 .375 .357 .732 .172 .232 .221 .453 -.114 -.143 -.136 -.279


Some interesting stuff in here.

Jason Giambi was acually slightly unlucky last year, which is good news for next year. According to PrOPS, Giambi should have hit .311 and slugged .615.

Alex Rodriguez appeared to be quite lucky, hitting almost 40 pts higher than expected. That's not such good news. His PrOPS line of .282/.391/.573 would be reminiscent of his 2004, although with a lot more power.

Gary Sheffield performed almost exactly like PrOPS would have guessed he would.

Tino Martinez may be gone, but according to this he was actually unlucky last year.

Derek Jeter appeared to perform slightly better than would be expected, which is a little disconcerting.

Jorge Posada was slightly unlucky, but not enough to arrest the concerns about his decline.

Hideki Matsui has the most troubling line on here in my mind, as he actually apparently outperformed by .094 OPS points. If his true talent level is more in line with the .271/.337/.431 that PrOPS would have predicted, that contract is going to be a burden very soon.

Bernie Williams was a bit unlucky. His PrOPS line of .262/.334/.396 would be a significant decline at DH next year, where the Yankees hit .258/.366/.452.

Robinson Cano also exceeded his PrOPS predicted line. As a player who showed no ability to walk, this is a little troubling, as any drop in his hitting performance will make his contributions minimal. Hopefully he'll show some improvement in his secondary skills next season, or continue to hit for an average of .341 on contact with a SLG of .520.

Ruben Sierra and John Flaherty were both slightly unlucky, which only boosts them from horrendous to awful.

Tony Womack is gone, and I am stupified that he was actually lucky in 2005. He got scapegoated for hitting just .249/.276/.280 when he really should have hit .234/.263/281. Good luck in Cincinnati Tony!


Bubba Crosby and his fan club should probably note that his .276/.304/.327 line was actually better than it probably should have been.

Melky Cabrera, Andy Phillips, and Felix Escalona didn't really accrue enough playing time for these numbers to be particularly meaningful.

PrOPS is a fairly new system that is still being refined, so there's no way to know just how accurate it is. However, if it is accurate, then there's some concern ahead, as only Giambi is predicted to have a significant improvement, and it would be offset by declines from Matsui, Jeter, and Rodriguez. This should make getting another bat to DH and play the OF a priority.

As an aside, Newsday is reporting that the Yankees and Miguel Cairo have agreed to a deal, contingent on his passing a physical.