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Farn-freakin-tastic
by SG

Since it is now somewhat official, I'm moving this back up top.

While it's not quite official yet, there are enough stories on the internets that Kyle Farnsworth will be signing with the Yankees for $17 million over 3 years (some stories say $24 million for 4 years). I think this is an overpay based purely on what Farnsworth may provide over three years, but in this market it's not surprising.

Here are Farnsworth's career numbers, courtesy of Baseball Reference


Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
1999 23 CHC NL   5   9  27  21   1   1   1  0  130.0  140   80   73  28   52   70   3   7   579  5.05  4.84   96
2000 24 CHC NL   2   9  46   5   0   0   8  1   77.0   90   58   55  14   50   74   4   3   371  6.43  4.27   66
2001 25 CHC NL   4   6  76   0   0   0  24  2   82.0   65   26   25   8   29  107   1   2   339  2.74  4.23  154
2002 26 CHC NL   4   6  45   0   0   0  17  1   46.7   53   47   38   9   24   46   1   1   213  7.33  4.03   55
2003 27 CHC NL   3   2  77   0   0   0  13  0   76.3   53   31   28   6   36   92   0   6   312  3.30  4.24  129
2004 28 CHC NL   4   5  72   0   0   0  25  0   66.7   67   39   35  10   33   78   2   1   298  4.72  4.53   96
2005 29 DET AL   1   1  46   0   0   0  16  6   42.7   29   12   11   1   20   55   1   2   174  2.32  4.27  184
        ATL NL   0   0  26   0   0   0  18 10   27.3   15    6    6   4    7   32   2   1   103  1.98  4.40  223
        TOT      1   1  72   0   0   0  34 16   70.0   44   18   17   5   27   87   3   3   277  2.19  4.32  198
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
7 Yr WL% .377  23  38 415  26   1   1 122 20  548.7  512  299  271  80  251  554  14  23  2389  4.45  4.41   99

Here's a picture of Farnsworth in action:

Take out his first year as a starter, and you have a pitcher who's struck out 484 hitters in 418.7 innings, a very solid rate of 10.4 per 9.

However, to this point, Farnsworth's career has been marked by inconsistency.

In 1999, 2000,2002, and 2004, he's put up the following cumulative line:

320 innings
350 hits
61 HRs
159 BB
268 K
1.7 HR/9
4.5 BB/9
7.5 K/9
,95 G/F
5.65 ERA
5.49 FIP

In 2001,2003, and 2005, he's put up the following line:
228 innings
162 hits
19 HRs
92 BB
286 K
0.7 HR/9
3.6 BB/9
11.3 K
1.08 G/F
2.76 ERA
2.98 FIP

Farnsworth is a fly ball pitcher, with a career G/F ratio of 0.99. In his good seasons, he gets more ground balls and has a lower HR rate. His control is not good, even when he's had his best seasons. His higher BB rate, higher HR rate, and lower K rate means a FIP(fielding independent pitching ERA) of 5.49 when he's bad. When he's good, it drops down to a very respectable 2.98.

The Yankees are taking a chance here, although Farnsworth is as talented as any reliever that was available, with a high 90s fastball and a newly added slider. This from his Stats Inc scouting report last year:

Farnsworth's overpowering fastball sometimes reaches the 100-MPH mark. However, he had no other effective weapon until late last season, when he developed a late-breaking slider that came in at around 92 MPH. It's a pitch that can help Farnsworth turn the corner in his career.

If the new slider is the reason for his success last year, then this is a good signing. However, even last year, his control was not great, and he allowed fewer HRs than he should have based on his flyball rate. This is reflected in his xFIP of 3.10 (xFIP is the expected fielding independent pitching ERA, based on the #s of fly balls a pitcher allows. Typically 10% of a pitcher's flyballs are HRs. xFIP accounts for flukes in FB/HR ratio). This is available on the Hardball Times pitcher's stats page.

Given the market and the options available, this deal does make some sense. With Flash Gordon's age and declining K rate, he was not a good choice for the 3 year contract he was seeking. However, I'm hearing that he may still end up returning. If he signs elsewhere, the Yankees will recoup the draft pick they lose by signing Farnsworth. Farnsworth's not B.J. Ryan, but he got 2 years and $30 million less, and it's very possible he could match Ryan's performance. I would just caution that those expecting a repeat of last year for the next three years look at the career line and temper some of that enthusiasm a bit. We'll see if Ron Guidry and Joe Kerrigan can help him refine his slider even more or perhaps teach him a changeup or splitter. Rumor has it that Mike Myers is also going to be signed shortly, which should keep Torre happy. Myers is very effective against lefties, but absolutely cannot face right-handed hitters at all. Righties hit him like 2000 vintage Nomar. If the Yankees sign no one besides Farnsworth and Myers, they'd go into the season with a pen of:

Mo
Farnsworth
Myers
Sturtze
Proctor
Small
Wright

It's not great on paper, but there's some potential there, with minor league arms like T.J. Beam, Jason Anderson, Matt Smith, Colter Bean, and perhaps J.Brent Cox waiting around for the inevitable injuries. I think the Yankees should still see what it would take to sign Octavio Dotel. However, reports are now that he will not be ready until midseason.

Beam is a very interesting prospect to me. He was a starter until this season, then was pushed into the pen. He had very good numbers in class A, combining at two stops for a 1.98 ERA and 105 K in 77 innings. His scouting report points to solid stuff, a 90-94 MPH fastball, a good slider, and a developing changeup. He was pretty old for his league at 24, so the Yankees should probably be aggressive with him this year, starting him in AA and promoting him to Columbus if he looks ready.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Small traded for CF help, but I doubt he could bring back too much. Although he was a great story last year, it's not a good bet to continue given his peripherals and past history, and it would be in the Yankees best interest to sell high. I also think he'd bring back more than Jaret Wright or Carl Pavano based on his health, low salary, and performance last year. Hopefully some team thinks he's turned the corner.

Back to "The Farns".

In summation, the pros with Farnsworth are:
1) His age
2) His stuff
3) His success last year

The cons are:
1) His inconsistency
2) His walk rate
3) Fly ball pitcher + Yankee OF defense

Dan Szymborkski's ZiPS projects the following from Farnsworth:


2006 ZiPS Projection - Kyle Farnsworth
-----------------------------------------------
W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
-----------------------------------------------
3   2  73   0   70   56   29   7  29  82  3.69

I'd take that in a heartbeat. One thing to keep in mind with relievers. The difference between 80 innings with a 3.00 ERA and a 4.00 ERA is 9 runs, or about 1 win. This does not account for leverage, which could impact the value of those runs. If we give those expected innings a leverage of 1.6 which is about normal for the 7th and 8th innings, then it ends up being a difference of about 14 runs in a season. In other words, although it may seem like the difference between Farnsworth and Gordon is huge, it's really not (assuming we get something close to his projection). Also, you should not compare Farnsworth to Gordon's 2004-2005 numbers, but what you may expect out of Gordon in 2006,2007, and (God forbid) 2008.

The pros seem better than the cons, but I'll remain skeptical. It's what I do. I don't expect Farnsworth to have an ERA under 4 during his Yankee tenure, but I wouldn't be shocked if he turned out better than I am expecting.

And if Texas swoops in and "steals" Farnsworth away, pretend you never read this.

Update:Phillies sign Gordon to replace Wagner.

Thanks for a solid two years Flash, and thanks for the draft picks your loss will provide.

--posted at 4:00 PM by SG / |

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