Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

Featuring:
Larry Mahnken
SG
sjohnny
TVerik
Sean McNally
Fabian McNally
John Brattain

This is an awesome FREE site, where you can win money and gift certificates with no skill involved! If you're bored, I HIGHLY recommend checking it out!

Donations are gratefully accepted!

The New York Yankees Vintage World Series Films DVD Set, available from A&E.

2006 Lineup Toy

BuySellTix.com buys and sells:
Yankees Tickets
World Series Tickets
MLB All Star Tickets
NFL Tickets

Purchase your
New York Yankees tix
as they go for another
AL East
crown in 2006

Onlineseats.com
is your #1 source for MLB tickets,
NY Mets Tickets,
Cubs Tickets,
Yankees Tickets,
Red Sox Tickets,
Giants Tickets,
Astros Tickets,
Angels Tickets,
Phillies Tickets.

Buy all your MLB Tickets,
Mets Tickets,
Orioles Tickets,
Yankees Tickets,
Cardinals Tickets,
Phillies Tickets,
Cubs Tickets,
Red Sox Tickets,
Dodgers Tickets,
from The Ticket Specialists.

Engagement Rings
Laser Keyboard
Brazil Flowers

TickCo.com for premium
New York Yankees Tickets
Boston Red Sox Tickets
Chicago white Sox Tickets
A's Tickets
Angels Tickets
New York Mets Tickets
St Louis Cardinals Tickets
Cubs Tickets
Dodgers Tickets

Atom Feed

RSS Feed

Add the RLYW to My Yahoo!

"I'm not a pessimist, I'm an optimist. Things are really worse than I say they are."
- Steve South

A-Rod Cover Counter

Appearances

Magic Numbers
Playoffs	--
Division	--
Home Field	--

Free Web poll for your Web site - freepolls.com

DIPS Worksheets!

The Curse Of... Oh, Let's Say, Clay Bellinger:

January 2001 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003 July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003 January 2004 February 2004 March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007

LINKS

Yankees Sites and Columnists
Nomaas.org

General Baseball Sites & Columnists
At Home Plate
Rotoauthority.com
The Book Blog - Playing the Percentages in Baseball(Tango, MGL, Dolphin)

Yankees Blogs
Almost Perfect
Baby Bombers
Baseball Mania
Bronx Banter
Bugs and Cranks
Canyon of Heroes
Dugout News
Eephus Pitch
Here Comes Number 27
High and Tight
Lohud Yankees Blog
No Sense Worrying
Pinstripe Potentials
River Ave. Blues
Soft Hands
The Stat Boy of the Empire
Was Watching
Yankees Chick
Yankees Fans in Foreign Lands
Yanks Blog

Other Team Blogs
Anaheim Angels All the Way
Bucco Blog
San Francisco Giants Blog
Viva El Birdos

Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

April 30, 2005

by SG

At 9-14, the Yankees were desperate for a win. On a rainy day today, they sent out one of the few legitimate prospects in a pretty barren farm system out to try and break a 3 game losing streak. In addition to having lost 3 straight games, the Yankees had scored a total of 2 runs in three games, a feat they last achieved in 1999.

9-14 is not a good record, but it is worth noting that the 2001 Oakland Athletics started the season 8-15 and finished at 102-60, and the 2002 Angels started the season 9-14 and finished at 99-63.

So, with Jaret Wright out for the next 4-6 weeks, the Yankees had to dip into their barren farm system and ask Chien-Ming Wang, aka Tiger, to fill the fifth starter's role and pitch well enough to get a win with what would possibly be little run support. I was very anxious to watch Wang's debut. Fabian wrote a writeup about him a few weeks back, but I wanted to see him first hand.

Wang pitched a great game. He pounded the strike zone against an aggressive Blue Jays team, throwing a first pitch strike to 19 of the 29 hitters he faced. He primarily threw his fastball, which was around 92 mph for most of the game, with some occasional splitters. Wang gave the Yankees exactly what they needed over 7 innings, allowing 6 hits, 2 BB, and only 2 runs. He seems to have a free, easy motion that has some good deception, and got groundball outs for 15 of his 21 outs. One thing that was a bit troubling was the fact that he did not strike out anyone, and didn't seem to be missing any bats at all. However, his minor league stats and scouting reports don't seem to indicate this as a problem for him, so I wouldn't overreact to the results of one start. Lack of strikeouts aside, everything else that I saw was very positive. He kept the ball low, he was hitting the corners, and he pitched out of some jams for the most part. With a little better defensive play behind him his final line may have looked even better. I was also impressed by his calm demeanor on the mound and his poise throughout the game.

Unfortunately, most of the rest of the Yankees are still not playing that well, and Wang was denied his first major league victory when Tom Gordon grooved a 2-1 pitch to Corey Koskie that tied the game. With the Yankee offense again looking flat, and the Yankee bullpen a bit shaky, I figured the game was lost at this point.

The Yankees failed to score with Bernie, Sheffield, or Slump-Zilla™ in the bottom of the eighth. Joe Torre then went to his pen again, this time for Mariano Rivera. Mariano has been MIA for most of the season. He hadn't pitched since the 21st, due to game situations and a flu that he has been suffering from. Although still not fully over his flu, he took the ball and delivered his best outing of the season, throwing only 8 pitches, 6 of them strikes to retire the Jays 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth.

Vinny Chulk came in for the Jays and was wild, walking Alex Rodriguez on four pitches. That brought up Andy Phillips who had replaced Jason Giambi in the lineup when Giambi had to leave with cramps in his right forearm. Joe Torre decided that even though Chulk was having trouble throwing strikes, the Yankees should give up an out to set up the winning run on second with Tino Martinez, John Flaherty, and Tony Womack due up. Granted, Posada would likely pinch-hit for Flaherty, but this was a stupid decision based on not just who was due up, but also on the fact that bunting is clearly not one of Phillips's strengths, which he demonstrated when he bunted in front of the catcher who was able to throw out Alex Rodriguez at second. So the Yankees had exchanged an out for the right to have a slower runner on first. Thankfully, Tino Martinez singled through the right side and Phillips got to third. Posada then pinch-hit for Flaherty. What the Blue Jays did here puzzled me. Posada has been striking out and hitting into double plays all year, either one of those would have been what they needed, but they intentionally walked him to load the bases for the poster boy of the front office's blunders, Tony Womack.

Womack gets a lot of grief from most Yankee fans, because he's not a good player. However, I still rooted for him in this spot because I want my team to win. Womack singled into RF, the winning run scored, and Womack had his 'Yankee Moment.'(Thanks to Weekly Journalist at Baseball Think Factory for that one)

The Yankees will try and win the series tomorrow by sending Carl Pavano out against Ted Lilly. Pavano's been pitching pretty well, and Lilly has struggled this season, but until the Yankee offense starts scoring consistently I won't feel comfortable about them against anyone. It would be nice if they could start a winning streak at some point. Maybe this game will be the one to get them going.

--posted at 6:22 PM by SG / |

April 28, 2005

by SG

It's still not time to panic. After two straight losses, the Yankees are 9-13, and it was frustrating to watch them tonight, but it is still too early to worry.

I was pleasantly surprised by Kevin Brown's performance. He had his best velocity of the season, and was very solid, especially over his last 3 innings of work. It was just one of those days where the offense couldn't get anything going. I thought the plate umpire had a lousy strike zone tonight which didn't help things, but John Lackey pitched pretty well, and the Angels bullpen is pretty damn close to unhittable. Sometimes you just get beat by a team that's playing better. Flash Gordon had his best inning of the season in the top of the ninth, with good velocity, good control, and a good breaking pitch.

I have mixed feelings about Buddy Groom's success so far. On the one hand, it's nice to see him being effective, on the other hand, it's led to some ridiculous stupid thinking by Joe Torre when discussing the pending return of Tanyon Sturtze.

Torre even floated the idea of keeping 13 pitchers on the roster, though that scenario is unlikely.

"We have to figure it out," Torre said. "If the concern is that we don't want to lose anybody, we may go with 13."

As stupid as the idea of carrying 12 pitchers is, this is even dumber. Yeah, Torre is part of the problem, but a bigger problem is Cashman not making a move to thin out the bullpen and build a better 25 man roster. As it is now, Steve Karsay, Paul Quantrill, and Felix Rodriguez are never pitching. I miss Mariano Rivera, at times I forget he is even on this team. And on top of this, you want to add another pitcher?

The Yankees get Toronto now. They really need to beat up on the weaker teams in the league if they want to quiet the talk about their decline. A good series this weekend against the Blue Jays would be a fine start. I look forward to Tiger Wang's debut on Saturday, and hope he can give us some optimism for the future, not just this year but for years down the road.

I guess I'm not sure when it will be time to panic. This will be the first year since 1991 that the Yankees have had a losing record in April. I would say that in another month, if the Yankees aren't playing better, it will legitimately be time to worry.

--posted at 10:24 PM by SG / |

April 27, 2005

Is he a 'True' Yankee now?
by SG

When the Yankees got Alex Rodriguez, they got one of the best players in the game. However, for whatever reason, he's been criticized for not being a 'true' Yankee. Rodriguez had a somewhat down year by his lofty standards, struggled with RISP and was involved in a couple of incidents which tarnished his image. Last night, he may have arrived as a Yankee by blasting 3 HRs and driving in 10 runs in a 12-4 thrashing of the Angels. He even got a curtain call, which I don't remember him getting last year.

As the youngest regular in the Yankee lineup, Rodriguez is being counted on to have a monster year. With people like Bernie and Posada showing little power in the early going, it's going to be up to Alex to carry the team when the older bats are slow or slumping. Hopefully yesterday will be the spark that he needs to finally stop pressing and just play.

The whole 'true' Yankee stuff is stupid to me. A true Yankee wears a Yankee uniform and draws a paycheck from them.

Another good game from Carl Pavano. He won't blow people away, but he is quietly efficient and effective. I won't get too excited yet after watching Javier Vazquez impress in the first half last year, but I've been very happy with the Pavano signing.

Andy Phillips got another start, and ~~singled~~ doubled once in five AB. He also just missed a HR on a line drive down the left field line that just missed the foul pole. I don't know how much he will play going forward, but every hit he gets can't hurt.

We also finally got to see the debut of Colter Bean. He's been touted for a few years due to eye-popping statistics in the minors. However, scouts see a guy who throws with an ugly motion and barely breaks 85 mph, and think he'll get killed in the majors.

Bean looked ok to me. His pitches seemed to have good movement, if not enough velocity. For some reason, I got a Jeff Nelson vibe off him. He had a good first inning and a shaky second inning. He looks like he will struggle against lefty hitters, but I don't think it's impossible that he can be an asset in a Steve Reed/Chad Bradford way. He'll only be up for a few more days, but if there are injuries or trades he may find his way back up this year. If not, hopefully the Yankees will consider using him on next year's team when some of the bullpen contracts are up.

--posted at 8:19 AM by SG / |

April 24, 2005

The Andy and RJ show
by SG

After a rough two games against Texas, the Yankees came out today and took care of business, playing a game that the front office probably dreamed of when they built this team in the offseason. Randy Johnson was dominating, despite not having tremendous velociy. Although he did get as high as 96 on one scoreboard reading, he was still working in the low 90s for the most part, but attacked Texas with sliders and impeccable control. He threw 103 pitches, 60 of them for strikes in 8 innings, allowing only 3 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, and with 7 strikeouts. I think most of us are not worried about RJ, but it was good to see him pitching so well. Tom Gordon pitched a perfect ninth, although his control wasn't great, but he looked pretty good as well.

The story of this game to me was the offense. Quietly, due to the Yankees' struggles so far, Derek Jeter is having a tremendous season. His 3 for 4 day, topped with a HR has him sitting at .361/.478/.514. The most pleasant sign for me is the spike in Jeter's walk rate. Most likely due to his slow start last season, Jeter's BB/PA ratio was a lowly .065. This was his lowest ratio since his rookie season. However, after today's game, he is sitting at .175, which would blow away his career high set in 1999, when he probably should have won the MVP. I'd expect that to come down as the season progresses, but it does bode well for the rest of this season.

But the real good news of the day was Andy Phillips. Prior to the game, 'Not Marv Cook', a poster at Baseball Think Factory posted:

"This would be a great day for Andy Phillips to pull a Bubba Crosby."

This was a reference to this game, when Crosby hit a 3 run HR to spark a 5-4 win over the White Sox for a Yankee team that had been struggling.

A surprising insertion into the starting lineup against a righty, Phillips had a big RBI double in the Yankees' 4 run second inning, and then hit a homerun in the 8th to turn a laugher into a blowout. He also seemed pretty good defensively, although he didn't really get tested. Joe Torre seemed very impressed on the postgame show, so look for Phillips to get some semi-regular playing time, or at least be called on to pinch-hit in key spots. Sierra will be out for 4-6 weeks, so he should have plenty of time to make the Yankees think about keeping him on the roster. Ideally, they will clean up the clutter in the bullpen at some point, and allow themselves an extra bat on the bench.

Paul O'Neill brought up an interesting point during the game about how having some youth on a veteran team can perk them up. Phillips is not young in years, but he is young in major league experience. Perhaps he can bring some energy to a team that's been lacking it. One thing I've seen with the Yankees so far this season is they seem kind of flat. I'm sure the pitching getting shelled has a lot to do with that, but they certainly looked like they had a spark today.

And now the Yankees are 8-11, the same record they had after 19 games last season. It doesn't really mean much, this is a different team, but it's a little more evidence that it's not time to panic yet.

The flaws that are on this team are not going away, but there is still a ton of talent on this team. As Yankee fans, we just have to hope that the good outweighs the bad enough that they can make the playoffs. Once there, I'll take my chances with RJ, Moose, Pavano, Mo, Flash, Sturtze? and this offense against anyone.

--posted at 5:21 PM by SG / |

April 23, 2005

Sunk Costs, Part Deux
by SG

Among the many moves that a lot of Yankee fans were not particularly enamored of was the Yankees' signing of Jaret Wright off of a career year with Atlanta. There was certainly good reason for concern.



Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
 1997 21 CLE AL   8   3  16  16   0   0   0  0   90.3   81   45   44   9   35   63   5   1   388  4.38  4.71  107
 1998 22 CLE AL  12  10  32  32   1   1   0  0  192.7  207  109  101  22   87  140  11   6   855  4.72  4.80  102
 1999 23 CLE AL   8  10  26  26   0   0   0  0  133.7  144   99   90  18   77   91   7   4   609  6.06  5.02   83
 2000 24 CLE AL   3   4   9   9   1   1   0  0   51.7   44   27   27   6   28   36   1   2   217  4.70  5.02  107
 2001 25 CLE AL   2   2   7   7   0   0   0  0   29.0   36   23   21   2   22   18   0   1   140  6.52  4.53   69
 2002 26 CLE AL   2   3   8   6   0   0   1  0   18.3   40   34   32   3   19   12   2   1   116 15.71  4.51   29
 2003 27 TOT NL   2   5  50   0   0   0  17  2   56.3   76   46   46   9   31   50   3  12   269  7.35  3.98   54
 2004 28 ATL NL  15   8  32  32   0   0   0  0  186.3  168   79   68  11   70  159   3   3   781  3.28  4.31  131

One of these things is not like the others.

The Yankees and their scouts felt strongly enough about Wright to sign him for 3 years and $21 million. The highest offer out of Atlanta was $4 million over 2 years. Rather than considering that the team he just pitched for didn't feel strongly enough about Wright repeating his performance to go higher than $2 million a year for two years, the Yankees had Wright take a physical, WHICH HE FAILED.

Rather than realize that maybe this could be a problem, they gave him another physical and this time he passed. They did "protect" themselves with an out clause, which can be triggered in year 3 of the contract if Wright spends a combined 75 days on the DL in years 1 and 2. They would still have to buy out year 3 at a cost of $4 million, so they would save $3 million out of the deal.

Here was Brian Cashman's take on the signing:

"I think when we approach our winter every year, the only sensible thing is to attack the areas of weakness," Cashman said. "Our biggest concern was our rotation, and the belief here is that we're going into the spring with a much stronger rotation than we ended with last season.

"We got younger at the same time, and that's always good," added the GM. "We're excited about the potential of the staff, but now we have to play it out."

Despite posting a 2-1 record, Wright had pitched very poorly going into today's game. He followed this up with his worst game of the year so far, giving up six runs in the first two innings before finally leaving the game in the sixth with what is being described as 'shoulder pain.' He will be re-evaluated tomorrow. I did not really care for the fans that cheered Wright's injury though, I thought that was pretty classless. Yeah, he's not pitching well, but he's trying. If you're going to be annoyed at anyone, be annoyed at the guys who brought him here. There's not anyone of us that wouldn't have taken the Yankees' offer if we were Wright.

Wright was signed in lieu of Jon Lieber, Matt Clement, Odalis Perez, Orlando Hernandez, and Eric Milton amongst others, at around the same dollar value or less.
With Clement and Perez, there were questions about their personalities, with Lieber and Hernandez there were age issues, and with Milton they felt he was asking for more than he was worth(at least they got this one right). I think it's safe to say that any one of them at this point in time would have been a far better signing, even Milton as scary as that is.

Regardless, what's done is done. At this point, I'd guess that Wright will go on the DL and they will call up Tiger Wang. The best thing for this organization would be for Wang to pitch well enough to be considered for a rotation spot if Brown/Wright can't pitch this season, or as the fifth starter when Brown's contract is finally up at the end of the season. The Yankees are notoriously impatient with young starters (see Halsey, Brad or Lilly, Ted) so Wang will have to do a creditable job from the start. With a very poor free agent crop of pitchers coming up, the Yankees have to stop doing what they've been doing, which is overpaying for mediocrity. It is far better to sign one Carlos Beltran for $14 million than to sign a Jaret Wright for $7 million, a Tony Womack for $2 million, a Tino Martinez for $2 million, and Ruben Sierra, John Flahery, and Rey Sanchez for $1 million each. The sooner they learn that, the better.

Another loss today dropped the Yankees to 7-11. If they manage to win tomorrow, they will have the same record as last year, so it is still not time to panic. However, it's so painfully obvious that this past offseason was not a good one, and it is becoming more apparent.

Tony Womack .233/.292/.283
Tino Martinez .200/.310/.360
Jaret Wright 2-2, 9.15 ERA
Randy Johnson 1-1, 5.13 ERA
Felix Rodriguez 4.70 ERA

Other names of note:
Jon Lieber 4-0, 2.73 ERA
Matt Clement 2-0, 2.13 ERA
Orlando Hernandez 2-1, 2.50 ERA
Odalis Perez 3-0, 2.04 ERA
Jose Contreras 0-0, 3.63 ERA

Update: Supposedly, the Yankees are going to call up Colter Bean to take Wright's spot. I guess this is because they won't need a fifth starter until next Saturday. It's not like Torre will use Bean unless there's a blowout though.

--posted at 5:26 PM by SG / |

Sunk Costs
by SG

Fortunately for me, I did not get to watch last night's game. I did listen to most of it on the radio, and as Kevin Brown gave another crappy performance to start the game, one thing that John Sterling said really got on my nerves:

"Brown's in the rotation, you have to pitch him."

I understand that Kevin Brown is making $15 million this season. However, if every time he starts he is putting his team in a 5 or 6 run hole to start the game, then the Yankees need to view him as a sunk cost.

From Wikipedia, here's what a sunk cost is:

In economics and in business decision-making, sunk costs are costs that have already been incurred and which cannot be recovered to any significant degree. Sunk costs are sometimes contrasted with incremental costs, which are the costs that will change due to the proposed course of action. In microeconomic theory, only incremental costs are relevant to a decision. If we let sunk costs influence our decisions, we will not be assessing a proposal exclusively on its own merits.

I'd swear that could've been written about Kevin Brown.

It's too soon to give up on Brown, it's only two starts, but if someone from the minors shows some consistency (Tiger Wang or Ramon Ramirez perhaps?), then I'd hope the Yankees wouldn't keep throwing Brown in the rotation strictly because they are paying him. That salary is gone, it's not coming back. You can't keep trying to justify it while costing your team wins. I guess I don't trust the Yankees to make that kind of decision, but perhaps an injury to Brown will make it for them.

Brown wasn't helped by a less than stellar offensive performance. The bullpen was strong again, especially Mike Stanton in a shocking peformance where he struck out all four batters he faced. I've basically accepted that the team will not leave April above .500 at this point, but as long as they win more than they lose going forward, I'll hope for a 15 game tear where they go 12-3 or something to get their record back up to respectability.

In other news, the latest on Ruben Sierra is that he will miss 4 to 6 weeks, and Andy Phillips has been called up. Shockingly, he got an AB yesterday. I'd like to see Torre give him some playing time, and hope that he can get some big hits so that Torre will play him ocassionally. Also, Tanyon Sturtze played catch yesterday and felt fine, so expect him to be back when his DL time is up.

--posted at 9:31 AM by SG / |

April 22, 2005

by SG

If I had my way, every Yankee game would be like the game yesterday where they shellacked the Blue Jays 11-2. Games like that don't teach you as much about the team as games like tonight's though.

After young lefty Gustavo Chacin baffled the Yankees the first time through the order, they started getting more comfortable against him the second time through. Bernie Williams led off the top of the fourth with a single. I've been happy to see Bernie's bat come to life of late. His .264 average and .375 OBP are certainly respectable, but his .340 SLG is still not very good. Gary Sheffield continues to hit the ball as hard as anyone I've ever seen, even at age 36, and lined a double to bring home Bernie. Sheffield went to third on the throw home, and scored on a sac fly by Hideki Matsui. They added two more runs in the fifth for a total of four runs.

The offense is not a concern on this team. We know they're old, declining, etc., but they can be expected to produce. The bigger concern for me in tonight's game was Mike Mussina. Again, Moose was effective, but less than impressive. He did get up to 91 mph on one fastball, but most of the time he was working in the 85-88 range, and he seems to be throwing more breaking balls this year. I am hoping he is still building arm strength, because as it is he's not really much more than a mid-level starter. He is constantly getting into jams, but to his credit he's pitching out of them, including a very nice double play in the third inning with the bases loaded and one out, where Moose stabbed a sharp grounder and threw home for the 1-2-3 double play.

Joe Torre again failed to impress me with his bullpen management, although it all managed to work out. To relieve Moose with runners on second and third and only one out in the bottom fo the sixth, Torre brought in Buddy Groom to make his Yankee debut. Groom intentionally walked Reed Johnson to face Greg Zaun, and got him to popup on the infield. With Shea Hillenbrand up, Torre brough in Felix Rodriguez who induced a sharp grounder to Jeter for the third out.

Then, in the top of the seventh, after getting one out, F-Rod gave up a double to Vernon Wells. With lefty Eric Hinske due up, despite the fact that Rodriguez has historically been very good against lefties, Torre went to Mike Stanton, who has been a bit shaky this year, including walking the last two lefties he's been brought in to retire. Stanton vindicated Torre by getting Hinske to fly out to center, and then Torre went to Flash Gordon. Gordon looked very good, with a lone walk his only blemish.

Then came Mo. He still doesn't look like he's 100%, but he got through it despite a scare. I think each successful outing will help him put the first week of the season out of his mind.

So the Yankees are still 2 games under .500 despite winning 3 of their last 4 games, but things are looking up. They'll head back home for a three game series with Texas now. I really would like to see a sweep, the longer this team is under .500 the more we're going to have to hear about what a disappointment they are. After last week though, things are looking better. I was happy with the offense's clutch hitting, and I thought the bullpen did a fine job of picking up a struggling Mike Mussina.

--posted at 12:00 AM by SG / |

April 18, 2005

SlumpBusters™
by Larry Mahnken

Certainly George will be happy, and probably a little self-congratulatory after last night’s shellacking of the Devil Rays, but lets keep things in context:

They beat the Devil Rays.

There, that’s pretty much enough context. They beat the crap out of a crappy team, it doesn’t mean that everything is going to be okay from now on. It doesn’t mean that they’re going to suck as soon as they play a good team again, and to win pennants you have to beat up on the weak teams, but it’s just one win, no matter how big.

To me, the element of this game most likely to be overlooked is the terrible performance by Jaret Wright. In his three starts, Wright has been pounded twice and was close to getting knocked out of the box by Boston. With a huge lead against a weak team, Wright barely got through five innings, and probably shouldn’t have been allowed to go that far. After a spectacular second inning, Wright quickly instilled a feeling of dread – if they blow this thing, it’ll be the low point of the year.

I didn’t expect much of Wright this season, and yet he’s failing to meet my expectations so far. How long it will take the Yankees to decide he’s worthless, and who will ultimately take his place in the rotation are fair questions to ask, but they can wait for another day, when Wright has actually cost the team a game.

For now, let’s focus the rest of our attention on the fact that the team won. They won with an amazing offensive outburst in the second inning against Rob Bell, sending seventeen batters to the plate, hitting two homers and scoring 13 runs. In two innings, Alex Rodriguez ripped a double and two homers, knocked in six runs, and was on his way to one of his best games in pinstripes – if not the best: 5/6, 2 HRs, 13 TB, 5 R, 6 RBI.

Jason Giambi doubled and singled, was walked twice, once intentionally, and hit by a pitch. Bernie Williams was 3/6, Derek Jeter 1/3 with 3 BBs. Tino Martinez hit his 11th career grand slam. With one out in the second, everyone in the lineup had at least one base hit.

These are the kinds of games that the Yankees are capable of when most of the lineup is clicking. Rob Bell is the type of pitcher who can help a lineup click, but he’s not that bad. Was this team angry, embarrassed, or scared of George Steinbrenner? Possibly, but it’s also possible – probably equally possible, I’d say, that this was just fortuitous timing, several slumping hitters breaking out all at once, at the end of a long skid. The Yankees won’t need these kinds of offensive performances all season, even behind Jaret Wright, but they’ll get a few of them.

I looked at the standings after yesterday’s game for the first time since Opening Day, not surprised to see the Yankees near the bottom, but also not concerned about that particular placement. Their overall performance has been frustrating, and I’ve been bitter, about the decisions they made that helped that frustrating performance, but I also knew that at this point in the season, a slump like this one, bound to be overreacted to at any time, will never be more overreacted to than in mid-April. Last night stopped a slide, for now, and it woke up some sleeping giants, for now. But the Yankees are still in fourth place.

For now.

--posted at 11:43 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

April 17, 2005

Enough Negativity
by SG

My last two posts have been very negative, and rightfully so. The Yankees have been playing like crap. However, after reading some of the stuff that's coming out in the media today, I've gotten a bit annoyed.

Yankees turning into $200 million failure

First, we get the insight of JT the Brick:

American League team don’t fear New York anymore. They look forward to beating them. Boston proved that a team could not only beat the Yankees, but also embarrass them, evidenced by last year’s when the Yankees became the first team to lose a 3-0 lead in the ALCS.

I don't know what last year has to do with this year, but whatever JT.

Then came the news that Joe Torre held a meeting with the team.

When Torre talks, Bombers listen.

A quote from Torre:

"I'm not happy. We need to play a better brand of baseball," Torre said. "The confidence level is never good -- I don't care how good you are -- until you can go out there and dictate what goes on. We haven't been able to do that, and until it happens, not only am I concerned, but everybody in that room is, too."

And lastly, George Steinbrenner himself chips in with his thoughts.

Steinbrenner irate after another Yankees’ loss

“Enough is enough. I am bitterly disappointed as I’m sure all Yankee fans are by the lack of performance by our team,” Steinbrenner said in a statement issued immediately after the game.

“It is unbelievable to me that the highest-paid team in baseball would start the season in such a deep funk. They are not playing like true Yankees. They have the talent to win and they are not winning. I expect Joe Torre, his complete coaching staff and the team to turn this around.”

In addition to this, the Yankee haters are out in full force. Full of glee and sarcastic comments, and this is also getting under my skin.

The Yankees are 4-8. That stinks. It doesn't matter. We know about all the problems with many of the decisions they made in building this team, but like it or not, this is the team we will be watching for the rest of the season, with the exception of a few pieces perhaps. Rather than look back at what's been a bad start, I'm going to start looking forward.

I'm going to start rooting for Tony Womack to do well. I hated his signing, but being happy when he fails is being happy that he is hurting the Yankees.

I'm going to hope that Alex Rodriguez stops pressing and just lets his natural talent and ability come through.

I'm going to root for Bernie Williams to go out with a bang, and not be a laughingstock. Sure, his defense won't be good, but there's no reason he can't make up for it on offense, and he's looked better of late.

I can't imagine that Jorge Posada will continue to hit like Rey Sanchez, and once he gets going a big hole in the lineup will be filled.

We know the bottom of the lineup isn't that good, but when Sierra plays, I'll root for him to get a clutch hit. When Tino plays, I'll root for him to make good defensive plays and get some big RBI.

I'll pull for Giambi's continued comeback. I still think he is going to perform well, as he gets more comfortable and gets his timing back.

I don't worry about Jeter, Sheffield, or Matsui. They are all consistent performers for the most part, and we can expect them to do well.

On the pitching side, Randy Johnson's had a rough start, but I feel confident that he will be mowing hitters down for most of the season.

Mike Mussina has not been that good so far, but he's getting results. As long as he's healthy and keeps building arm strength, I see no reason to not expect him to resemble the Moose of the second half last year, the one with 57 Ks in 57.1 innings and a 3.45 ERA.

I've seen more good than bad from Carl Pavano. His raw numbers will look worse due to the move to the American League and the defense he'll be playing in front of, but as a third starter I see no reason not to expect him to be an asset.

I'm going to hope that Kevin Brown can make 25 starts and build on the last four innings of his game today. If he can't, I'm going to be excited to see if young arms like Tiger Wang, Ramon Ramirez, or Jorge Depaula can be parts of the pitching staff for years to come.

I get the impression that Jaret Wright is going to be inconsistent, but will have good games at times. I'll just hope that more often than not he can keep the team in the games he starts.

I am not concerned about the bullpen, only with Torre's handling of it. Rivera is still working his way back, but I have no doubt that he will be fine. Gordon may not be as good as last year, but if that's the case, they can give some of his innings to Felix Rodriguez. I also think Sturtze can be an asset despite his bad outing against Baltimore, and look forward to watching him defy expectations. I don't know what to think about Mike Stanton, but I do think he should not be used strictly against lefties, and that he shouldn't pitch as much as Torre seems to be using him right now. I think longer outings will help him stay sharper. I also hope that Quantrill and Karsay can get the consistent work they need to be assets.

We know the bench isn't good, but hopefully the Yankees will use the few strengths they have on it to the best of their ability.

Joe Torre could be a problem, but he won't be a problem if these players do what they should do.

I won't let all the asses rooting for the Yankees to fall flat on their faces get the satisfaction of watching me panic.

If they are still shitty in a month, then we can start to worry.

--posted at 10:49 PM by SG / |

April 16, 2005

Mismanagement 101
by SG

Joe Torre has gotten a lot of praise for his team's successes over the time since he came aboard in 1996. Torre has his strengths, although they would seem to be in mostly unmeasurable areas. I'm not one to discredit team chemistry and intangibles, however since they are not something we can measure I can't really assess them. It seems that Torre does a good job of managing his team's personalities, he handles the voracious New York media with aplomb, and he manages to keep George Steinbrenner off his players' backs for the most part. However, he is clearly not a good in-game tactical manager, and as the quality of the team that the front office has assembled for him deteriorates, it becomes more and more clear.

I want to make it clear that Torre is not the only one to blame for the current flaws on this team, which is a good enough team to win the division and World Series as constructed, but has a lot of issues with its defense and depth. Brian Cashman deserves some blame as well. Granted, it's not clear how much autonomy he has with decisions, but as the face of the Yankee decision-making team, he is responsible for how this team was put together. If he is being overridden on all his personnel moves, then he needs to be more vocal about it and perhaps step down if that's what it takes. Otherwise, he risks any chance of moving on to a more favorable situation at some point in his career. That he has not done so tells me that he either approves of the moves being made, or does not feel strongly enough about them to fight them.

Also culpable in this is the Tampa think tank. This mysterious group, led by "superscout" Bill Emslie and "pitching guru" Billy Connors carries a lot of weight and influence with George Steinbrenner. They are the ones who recommended Tony Womack and Jaret Wright, while at the same time running the minor league organization into the ground.

The bench that was assembled this year is an embarrassment, particularly given the Yankees' tremendous financial advantage over the rest of baseball.

All of these factors came into play tonight, in a tough 7-6 loss.

In the starting lineup and batting fifth was Ruben Sierra. This is the first example of Torre and his mismanagement. He based this decision on the fact that Sierra has 7 hits in 23 AB against Rodrigo Lopez. It's certainly possible that this is indicative that Sierra has good AB against Lopez, but the sample size is not significant enough to completely warrant it. Torre has a bizarre fascination with batter/pitcher matchups, which have basically been debunked as having much validity by people far more astute than me about these types of things. To no one's surprise except Joe Torre, Sierra went hitless in five plate appearances, although he did drive in a run on a grounder to short late in the game.

Torre also took Jason Giambi out of the game after the top of the sixth inning to replace him defensively with Tino Martinez. Mark this one down, because it came back to bite the Yankees in the ass in the ninth inning.

Mike Mussina pitched a decent game, but he still doesn't look good to me, as his velocity is still in the mid to high 80s and his control is not sharp. However, he gutted through this outing and exited the game with two outs in the sixth, a 3-1 lead and one runner on. Mike Stanton was brought in to turn Brian Roberts around and walked him on 5 pitches. However, newest Yankee bullpen hero Tanyon Sturtze came in, allowing a single to Melvin Mora which cut the Yankee lead to 3-2. However, he then induced a grounder to retire Tejada and escape with the lead.

This is the second example of Joe Torre's mismanaging. Sturtze had been outstanding this year, but he is on pace to pitch 149 innings. On a team with 7 relievers, all of whom have a track record of success, there is no excuse for using one guy that much. It's still an open question if Sturtze has discovered a new talent level due to the change in his role and the cutter that he was taught by Mariano Rivera, but assuming he is now a good reliever, is he likely to be better than Felix Rodriguez, Paul Quantrill, or Steve Karsay?

The Yankees added 3 more runs in the top of the 7th and all looked well. However, reality came back to bite Sturtze in the top of the 7th. He was a bit unlucky as some flare hits landed in bad places, but he gave up five hits and four runs. Two of these runs scored when Flash Gordon gave up a two out HR to Brian Roberts.

Gordon has not been good this year, and my guess is that it is a lingering effect from his overwork last year. He has an extensive injury history and had not pitched nearly that many innings since 1998.


Gordon's innings pitched as a reliever:
1998    79.1
1999    17.2
2000    Out for the season
2001    45.1
2002    42.3
2003    74
2004    89.2

He is 37 this year, his season last year was huge, but there is no reasonable way to expect anything close to that this year, and I would not be shocked if he suffers from markedly decreased effectivenss due to his workload last year. However, Torre has his mind set up with roles. Stanton is the LOOGY, even though he is no more effective against lefties than righties, and is not nearly the same pitcher he was when Torre had him last. Sturtze apparently will always pitch the 6th and 7th with a lead, Gordon the 8th, and Rivera the 9th. Felix Rodriguez, Paul Quantrill, and Steve Karsay will apparently only pitch in blowouts, as they are not on Torre's infamous "trust" list.

Relief pitchers need to pitch regularly to stay sharp in my opinion, and Torre will often bury guys that he has no confidence in, which in turn affects their effectiveness and their own confidence, which in turn appears to justify Torre's use of them.

These are all season long issues however. The biggest blunder in last night's game came in the ninth inning. With dominant lefty relief pitcher B.J. Ryan in for Baltimore, the Yankees were due to send up Ruben Sierra, Tino Martinez, and Jorge Posada. Sierra struck out on three pitches, and looked awful in doing so. Giambi's spot in the order came up, but he was not in the game anymore, having been pulled in the 6th freaking inning. Ryan is tough on lefties, but Giambi has the power to hit a mistake pitch a long way, or at least the eye to work the count. However, in his place now was Tino Martinez. With a tough lefty on the hill, Torre decided to go to his bench for Tino, which was a fine move in theory.

His options:
Andy Phillips, Righty, age 28, a career .296/.366/.509 hitter in the minors who had a torrid spring training, hitting .333/.409/.718 with 4 HRs in 39 AB.
Rey Sanchez, Righty, age 37, a career .271/.308/.334 hitter who hit .246 last year and is known more for his defense.
John Flaherty, Righty, age 37, a career .255/.293/.382 hitter who is known for "calling a good game" apparently since he can't hit for crap or throw out a base stealer to save his life.
Bubba Crosby, Lefty, age 28. Primarily Bernie Williams's defensive replacement and a pinch runner, and would be overmatched against a lefty like Ryan.

I won't claim that Andy Phillips is a good hitter because of his minor league track record. I won't claim that he has that much potential, because a 27 year old beating up minor league pitchers isn't overly impressive. However, we do know the track records of Rey Sanchez and John Flaherty, and they're not good.

With only two out remaining in the game, Torre sent up Rey Sanchez to hit for Tino Martinez. By some miracle, Sanchez hit a weak grounder up the middle that just eluded Brian Roberts's dive. That brought up the comatose Jorge Posada, who has been horrendous so far this season. Posada struck out, leaving the game in Bernie Williams's hands. Bernie has looked a little better of late, and managed to draw a walk, putting two runners on. This brought up lefty "hitting" Tony Womack. Torre wisely realized that Womack would not be a good option to use against Ryan, and went to his bench again. This time, he chose John "Bad Flash" Flaherty over Phillips. Flaherty hit a flare that Brian Roberts caught to end the game.

Phillips should have hit for Sanchez, and when it got to Womack he should've hit for him. He has more power than either Sanchez or Flaherty, and at that stage of the game against that type of pitcher you need to hope you get lucky and connect on a pitch.

This team will start hitting, and when they do they can beat anyone, but the flaws they have are being compounded by the conservative and outright foolish manner that Joe Torre is using the players he has. I still think they are likely to make the postseason, and I haven't seen enough out of Boston that tells me the Yankees shouldn't be considered a co-favorite to win the division. However, I think it's time for the Joe Torre era to end, whether they win or lose this year. He's had a great run, and I thank him for that, but he's becoming more and more detrimental to this team's chances every year.

I'm going to go drink this one off, and enjoy my hangover and a sweep tomorrow.

--posted at 10:07 PM by SG / |

April 14, 2005

Birthday Surprise
by Larry Mahnken

At 8:04 in the morning of April 13th, 1977, in a hospital in Bay Shore, New York, I entered this world.

About 16 hours later, 26-year-old Ron Guidry won his first major league game in relief of Ed Figueroa. It was the team's first win since an Opening Day victory six days earlier, and their last for seven more days, but despite this poor 2-8 start, the team was on it's way to a 100-win season and their first World Championship in 15 years.

Since I was born, the Yankees have gone 2484-1926 (a .563 Pct., or 91-win pace), they’ve won 12 division titles, made the playoffs 14 times, won nine pennants and six World Championships. And they’ve gone 16-10 on my birthday, which is an even better winning percentage.

Now I’ve been a Yankees fan for as long as I can remember, but I didn’t become a hardcore, watch or listen to every game, thrill over every victory/agonize over every defeat kind of fan until May 27^th, 1991, when Mel Hall hit a 3-run home run off of Jeff Reardon to beat the Red Sox 6-5 (after trailing 5-0). Since that day, the team has gone 1258-907 (.581, 94-win pace), but frustratingly, only 4-6 on my birthdays heading into last night’s game.

They hadn’t played the Red Sox on my birthday until 2001. In that game the Yankees had been shut down by Paxton Crawford and Boston’s middle relief, and had relied on strong performances by Orlando Hernandez, Ramiro Mendoza and Mike Stanton to get the game to the ninth tied at 1. In the ninth they put a run across on Derek Lowe, and in came Mariano Rivera to close it in the bottom of the inning.

But he couldn’t get the job done, and a Manny Ramirez base hit won the game for Boston 3-2, which totally ruined my birthday.

A year later they met again in a faceoff between David Wells and Pedro Martinez. The Yankees scored four off of Pedro in the first inning, and were holding onto a 6-3 lead in the eighth, when Wells started to lose it, and Mariano Rivera came in and gave up a game-winning, 2-run homer to Shea Hillenbrand, and the Sox won again, 7-6. Another birthday ruined, this time exacerbated by the fact that I had to watch it with my Sox-fan friend and roommate.

So two Yankees/Sox games on my birthday, two Yankee losses, and with Curt Schilling facing Jaret Wright this time around, the prospects of that trend reversing itself wasn’t promising. The relocation of Tony Womack to the leadoff spot didn’t help that impression.

Of course there are no sure things in baseball, and some good luck kept the Yankees in the game early while Wright was struggling and Schilling was dealing. A close play at first in the third held the Red Sox to one run after they’d loaded the bases with one out, and in the fifth inning the Yankees were able to push across a couple of runs. Trot Nixon immediately tied it with a homer in the bottom of the inning, but the Yankees responded in the top of the sixth with homers by Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams off a tired Schilling.

From there on the Yankees were in control, Tanyon Sturtze and Tom Gordon shut Boston down through the eighth, and Rivera came in to a standing ovation from the Fenway crowd, and pitched an effective ninth for his second save and the Yankees’ fourth win.

It was a good win and a strong showing from a team that’s been struggling, but I’m still just as concerned about them as I was 24 hours ago. I’m still worried about Bernie, I’m concerned that Womack was stuck at the top of the order, and I’m sickened by their defense. Wright didn’t inspire any confidence with his 4-walk performance, where he threw 49 strikes and 48 balls. Rivera got the job done but wasn’t at his best (half his pitches were out of the strike zone again).

So while beating the Sox always feels good, and they got an unexpected win they really needed right now, it doesn’t cure all ailments. But at least I got a nice present, the first Yankees win on my birthday since 2000.

--posted at 10:54 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

April 11, 2005

Venting
by SG

Granted, it's way too early to start panicking yet, but there are some troubling things already apparent on the 2005 Yankees. Most sabermetrically aware fans are aware of the litany of missteps that were undertaken in building this team, but it's worth re-hashing with the way they've stunk it up over the last five games.

With the Yankees starting rotation struggling mightily last year, it made a lot of sense to try and rebuild it. The Yankees went after the best available pitcher in Randy Johnson, which still appears to be a good choice although the price was high in dollars and in talent surrendered. Johnson was good in his first start, bad in his second, but the major concern with him is his health, and so far that does not appear to be an issue.

In addition, by locking up Johnson for two more years and $32 million, they are again putting themselves in the position of being stuck with a large contract that they won't be able to do anything with.

The second key piece added was Carl Pavano. His low strikeout rate was a legitimate cause for concern, especially considering the fact that he was leaving the National League for the American League, but he was great in his first start and was ok in his second until he got struck by a line drive. The latest news is that he suffered a very mild concussion, and he should be ok to make his next start. Pavano has had a long injury history but appears to have put it behind him at this point.

The third piece added was Jaret Wright. Wright has always had a world of talent, but never put it together until last year under the tutelage of the best pitching coach in the game, Leo Mazzone. The Yankees did what they do "best", buying high on a basically unproven commodity, due to the advice of their scouting group in Tampa. Wright's effectiveness is certainly an open question, as he was lousy in his first start, and has a troubling injury history.

In addition, Kenny Lofton was traded for Felix Rodriguez. Rodriguez is not a bad pitcher, but he became the 12th man on the pitching staff. There is no excuse for a team to carry more than 11 pitchers, and Lofton would've been a good fit on this team as a platoon CF and 4th OF. Trading Heredia for Stanton was a good move, but Stanton is not really a lefty killer and if that is the role that he will be used in I doubt he will be very effective.

After working on their pitching staff, they went after the lineup next.

Despite a defense that ranked amongst the worst in baseball by most statistical measures, the Yankees failed to make any moves to address it. I will not bash Bernie Williams because he has had a great career and is one of my favorite players. The fact that he is still the everyday CF on this team is a reflection on the team's management, from the owner on down, and not on Bernie. There was a young superstar CF who would've been an upgrade on offense, defense and just entering his prime on the free agent market, and the Yankees chose to ignore him. If this was because they've reached their reasonable payroll limit, that's fine, they still have a tremendous financial advantage over all other teams. It just points to how stupidly this team has been put together. A bigger long-term problem is that there does not appear to be a viable option for CF over the next few years on the free agent market, and the Yankees have one of the worst rosters in baseball as far as attractive trade chits.

In addition to ignoring Beltran, the Yankees replaced Miguel Cairo, who's not a great player, but had a good year last year, with Tony Womack, who's not a good player but had a good year last year. Womack typically scores poorly in defensive metrics, makes out 68 % of the time, and has no power. They also brought back Tino Martinez for a last hurrah, who was not bad last year but is 37 years old and could (and apparently has) fall off a cliff at any time. With someone like Andy Phillips rotting away in the minors, what was the purpose of this move?

Compound these bad personnel decisions with Joe Torre's management, and it could lead to bad things. When Ruben Sierra is batting cleanup, when the bench has four players not fit to play major league baseball, and when a manager overuses a reliever when he has a seven man bullpen, he is hurting the team. Torre has gone away from what made him successful as the Yankee manager earlier in his career. This is the man who found a role for Mariano Rivera, and helped to break in Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada(stupidly, but still), and Andy Pettite. However, now he manages ultra-conservatively. The way he ran Quantrill, Rivera and Gordon into the ground last year was probably a big factor in the bullpen's struggles in the second half and the postseason. He appears to be doing the same thing with Sturtze now.

So now, you've got an old, declining core on offense. You have zero depth on offense or on the pitching staff. You have a manager who's becoming more and more of a liability, and you have no flexibility to do anything about it.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, they haven't even played 10 games yet, but this team is not fun to watch right now. I also get the sense that these guys are not a team, and appear to be having no fun on that field. There are very few guys on here whom I would root for if they weren't wearing Yankee uniforms. I like the Yankee core (Rivera, Posada, Jeter, Bernie). I like Matsui, who exemplifies quiet professionalism. I'd like to see Giambi bounce back but I'm not as much of a fan of his as I was prior to his steroid admission, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never gets unhinged. Alex Rodriguez has a world of talent and ability, but there's no denial that he's been a disappointment so far in his Yankee career. Other than that, I'm either ambivalent or dislike most of the rest of this team. A few wins might change things, but man, what a bad stretch.

--posted at 8:25 PM by SG / |

by Larry Mahnken

On the one hand, six games is about 50 games too early to do any bridge-jumping, and even then a .500 record is nothing to despair about. Losing three of the last four is hardly the problem, it's what's been happening in those four games that gives cause for concern.

In these first six games, the Yankees' offense has consisted of two players, Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter... well, I guess you can include Ruben Sierra in that, too, but he's really only had one at bat that was worth anything in these six games. Outside of those three players, the Yankees have six extra base hits, they're hitting .236 with a .663 OPS. Obviously they'll do better than that, but how much better, and will it offset Matsui and Jeter's inevitable regression?

Some of the players who are struggling are players who there were legitimate concerns about before the season. Jason Giambi has an acceptable .847 OPS, but he's been hit by 3 pitches, and had his homer been a few feet shorter, it would have been a flyout, so that's not the strongest .847 OPS. He needs to start hitting the ball with more authority.

Jorge Posada hit 8 home runs through April last season, and only hit 13 more the rest of the way, he posted a .793 OPS after May, which is a decent OPS for a catcher, but for a 33-year-old catcher with a career .854 OPS it's an ominous sign.

Tino Martinez had a decent season last year, but he's 37 and wasn't very good the previous two seasons. Tony Womack just plain sucks.

Turn to the rotation, and even the good looks bad. Randy Johnson isn't blowing people away, he's giving up hits, his fastball seems a little slow -- not positive signs. Mike Mussina is getting hit, he's not hitting 90 with his fastball again, and he was lucky to not get knocked out of the park by the Red Sox last week. Carl Pavano was great in his first start and looked a little shaky the second time around, though he got knocked upside the head with a line drive before he had a chance to really get going. Jaret Wright bore a disturbing resemblence to Jose Contreras on Friday night.

Tanyon Sturtze has gotten off to a good start -- but Joe Torre appears to be not willing to use any other relivers in a tight situation, a problem he suffered from last year, which resulted in an exhausted bullpen in October. Now, it sounds silly to be complaining that Tanyon Sturtze is getting worn out, but when Sturtze struggles, Torre will just start overusing the next reliver who pitches well. If he were to use his whole bullpen instead, especially early on to find out who's really worth using and who's not, then he'll both find out who his best relievers really are over the course of the season, and he'll avoid burning them out.

I don't place much importance on the outcome of this week's series with Boston. Of course I really want them to win, but more imporant than victory is that they get better performances out of the players who've struggled so far. I think we learned last season that April slumps and hot streaks don't decide a season, and the continuation of these slumps doesn't mean that these players won't perform all season. But a lessening of these concerns through strong performances would be very beneficial for the emotional well-being of a lot of people, myself included.

--posted at 12:43 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

April 6, 2005

Well, that sucked
by SG

After two great wins to start the season, the Yankees appeared to be well on their way to the season-opening sweep that I foolishly predicted. Gary Sheffield's bases loaded sac fly in the bottom of the 8th gave them a 3-2 lead. However, for the second game in a row, Mariano Rivera was unable to hold the lead. The top of the ninth started badly with a leadoff walk to Bill Mueller. Mark Bellhorn followed with a single, then Johnny Damon with another single on which Mueller held, unsure if Gary Sheffield could catch it or not. Rivera came back to strike out Trot Nixon, then induced a double play grounder to Alex Rodriguez. Unfortunately, Rodriguez did not pick the in-between hop, and recorded no outs. This tied the game, then a weak Ortiz grounder towards first scored a fourth run. Rivera then walked Dave McCarty and gave up a single to Edgar Renteria that scored two more runs. He followed this up with another walk, this time to Doug Mirabelli.

Then came one of the rarest things that a Yankee fan has seen over the last 10 years. Mariano Rivera getting relieved mid-inning.

There's been a lot of chronicling of Rivera's recent struggles against Boston. He's blown 12 of 20 save opportunites against them dating back to 2001. Some people will claim that the Red Sox are in Mariano's head, or they have his number. Until today I wouldn't have paid any mind to that, but Rivera's approach in today's game was markedly different. He was working away to every hitter, which is not his strength. This was troubling to me, because it may be an indicator that this recent history is worrying him.

More likely, this is just one of Rivera's occasional slumps, where his cutter is not sharp and his command is off, a/k/a WWWMW (What's wrong with Mariano Week). I don't know if his spring training bout with elbow bustitis is still an issue, or if it affected him getting ready for the season. However, he is 36 now, and as scary as it is for Yankee fans to think about, his best days are probably behind him. I will say one thing, I was more pissed about the fans that dared to boo him as he left the mound today than the blown save.

One thing to think about though, as much mystique and importance that Rivera has been given for the Yankees' success since 1995, it is a basic fact that in the regular season a ninth inning closer does not have that much impact over the course of the season. Granted, the playoffs are a different story, but that's a long way off. Rivera will have ample time to sort out his problems if he can, and if not, the Yankees will manage somehow.

Baseball is a game that will ground you, as players and as fans. The strong get through ruts, and I don't know if there's a stronger player in baseball than Mo.

I am more concerned about the bottom of the lineup, which is looking like it will be a weakness all season. I still have hope for Bernie to at least hit decently, maybe not with the power he once had but at least to not make outs. Tino did have a HR today, but has looked lost at the plate. Tony Womack is what he is, despite last year's career best season, he'll most likely be making outs in 70% of his plate appearances.

Looking at the big picture, I think anyone would take winning 2 out of 3 against Boston to open the season, so that is good. Hopefully the HBP on Jeter will not have any lingering effect.

I am just happy to get through one of the Boston/Yankee series at this point, they are emotionally draining games. It's turning into a great rivalry, especially now that it can't really be called one-sided anymore, but how about some nice non-pressure games against Tampa?

--posted at 5:36 PM by SG / |

Captains Clutch
by Larry Mahnken

No question, 2005 is off to a good start. No major disappointments to speak of, some outstanding performances, some great surprises. One great game, two wins.

Will it all go this well? Of course not, there will be stretches of immense frustration, and there will be stretches where it all goes even better. At least they've started out the good way this year.

Last season, coming off of an excruciating defeat in the ALCS, the Red Sox started out hot and laid the smack down on the Yankees in six of their first seven meetings. This year, the Yankees have rebounded from their humiliating ALCS defeat to make Boston look bad. As well as things have gone for the Yanks, they've gone just that bad for Boston. There is little to be happy about so far for the Red Sox, the things that have gone well were more or less expected to go well, and several things that were hoped for or expected to go well have gone poorly. Of course it's just two games, of course it doesn't mean that much, but these are two games that Boston fans recieved almost no enjoyment out of, and Yankees fans recieved almost complete enjoyment from.

There were high expectations for the Yankees today, with the debut of the newly accquired Carl Pavano. Pavano had a career year in 2004, posting a 3.00 ERA and winning 18 games, after being generally mediocre and often injured. He is expected by many in the mainstream to repeat his 2004 in pinstripes, and by many in the online community (including myself) to struggle somewhat this season due to his low strikeout rate and reliance on his defense.

So he came out and struck out two in the first inning. Then he struck out two in the second, and another two in the third.

Of course he returned to form after that, striking out only one more over the next 3.1 innings, but he only gave up seven singles and a homer to David Ortiz, and two runs. When he left, the Yankees lead 3-1, behind an RBI groundout by Gary Sheffield and a two-run homer by Hideki Matsui (his second in as many games). Mike Stanton gave back one of those runs, but the Yanks went into the ninth with a 3-2 lead and Mariano Rivera on the mound.

Unfortunately, after two consecutive seasons of close games and 7-game ALCS's, the Red Sox have a good bead on what Rivera's doing. He still has a low ERA against them, but they've come back a number of times in recent years, more than anyone else by a wide margin. Few teams are more capable of jumping on Rivera's mistakes than the Red Sox, and it happened again today.

It's easy to overblow this, Rivera's two blown saves in the ALCS last year consisted of a walk, single and a fly ball. Today it was a little more straightforward, as Rivera gave up a home run to Red Sox captain Jason Varitek.

Rivera got out of the inning after a single to Mueller, a strikeout by Bellhorn and a long flyout to the warning track by Johnny Damon, but with Keith Foulke already in the game, it looked like a repeat of last October's excruciating extra-inning battles was in order.

But at least the Yankees had the top of their lineup leading off the ninth, and Derek Jeter quickly took the count to 3-0. In the top of the ninth, my friend Kristen had asked me to give her some quick analysis to tell her boss so she could look like she knew a lot about baseball (all she knows is that she likes baseball, especially the Yanks. Smart girl). I told her to tell him that Jeter would win it in the ninth, because he's Mr. Clutch. I also told her that saying that kind of thing was a good way to piss me off, because it's so irrational and stupid.

But lo and behold, after Foulke battled back to get the count full, Jeter smacked the ball over the right field wall to win the game for the Yanks, make Kristen look prophetic to her boss, and made her boss a pleasure to work with the rest of the day. It was a truly outstanding finish to a great game, one of those "thank God baseball is back" moments, or if you're a Red Sox fan, a "I thought this stuff was supposed to end after October 27th" moment.

Maybe now Sox fans will realize that all those heartbreaking moments from the past 86 years had nothing to do with Babe Ruth or a curse... it was just baseball. That's how it goes sometimes.

Of course, it all adds to the Jeter legend now, a legend of clutch hitting, clutch fielding, clutch leadership, clutch fist pumping, clutch banging of hot chicks. It will be overblown in today's pregame and for the first half of the game as a deflating loss for the Red Sox, when in fact this is about the only time of year where this kind of loss (or victory) will have a negligible impact, because there's so much time to make up for it left.

No doubt the demons of last October are being exorcised this week in The Bronx. The "2000" chants will rain down upon them in a week, but if things keep going this way, they'll be raining down upon a first place team. Last year is gone, that loss and shame is permanent. All that matters now is this year. And this year is going just dandy so far.

--posted at 2:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

April 5, 2005

April Fistpumps
by SG

Game 2 of the 2005 season continued in the vein of many of the Yankee vs. Red Sox matchups of the past few season. New import Carl Pavano was very impressive in his Yankee debut, mixing a variety of pitches and hitting his spots well, and even striking out 7 batters. MVP-Zilla™ added another big HR in the 3rd inning, keeping on pace to hit 162 this season. With Tom Gordon cruising through Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Kevin Millar in the top of the 8th, everything looked good for another Yankee victory. Unfortunately, Jason Varitek temporarily put a damper on the festivities with an HR off Mariano Rivera, which tied the game at 3 and put the Yankees in a position of having to score off Keith Foulke, a task they had plenty of trouble with last year.

Leading off the ninth was the much maligned Derek Jeter. Jeter took a high and outside pitch for ball 1, took a low slider for ball 2, took another one for ball 3, then took two strikes to work the count full. On 3-2, he fouled a pitch off towards the first base side of the stands. Then came an outside fastball.

Jeter did what he does when he's at his best, working his inside-out swing towards right field. As the ball sailed out over Trot Nixon's head, Jeter pumped his fist and began circling the bases.

Jeter continued around the bases, rounding third and heading home where his teammates greeted him.

Most of the readers of this blog are aware of Jeter's limitations. He's a fine hitter for a SS, if a bit overrated, and a wildly overrated defensive player who did improve fairly significantly last year. However, he gets savaged by most sabermetric types unfairly, because he is overrated by the conventional media. On this day, he was worth his paycheck and more.

I am loving the 2005 season so far.

--posted at 5:42 PM by SG / |

April 4, 2005

Five Questions: New York Yankees
by Larry Mahnken

My THT season preview.

--posted at 1:42 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

Opening a Can of Whup-Ass
by Larry Mahnken

Opening Day is never a must-win. It's never a crucial game. It's never a particularly important game. Ever.

But sometimes it means a little more than others. The final four games of the ALCS last year were the most excruciating, humiliating games I've ever had the horror to witness as a fan, and they've stewed for the past five months. I'm sure the Yankees have been eager to move past it too, and they needed a win to start that process.

Maybe the Red Sox were still riding a little too high from their championship offseason, and maybe the Yankees came out more determined than in years past. However it happened, last night was perfect.

For the first time in a long while, the Yankees have best pitcher in baseball, and a better pitcher than anyone the Red Sox can throw out. Randy Johnson't isn't just that, he's a pitcher who plays right into Boston's weaknesses, limiting the effectiveness (or outright usage) of David Ortiz and Trot Nixon, throwing strikes and keeping his walks low, and giving up few home runs. Boston's lineup is good enough to get to him, and at some point this season probably will get to him to some degree, but they'll always go into the games he starts as the underdog. Seeing Johnson against the Red Sox tonight was a great feeling. I didn't expect Boston to score runs, I was surprised when they even got on base. He pitched quite well, but it seemed like he wasn't sharp, the expectations are that high.

And Tanyon Sturtze followed him with a perfect relief outing, raising hopes that maybe the last month of 2004 was real, and that he's a useful reliever.

Derek Jeter started off with a couple of hits, Jason Giambi ripped a single and took a couple of plugs to get on base, and got a standing ovation to start the game (whoulda thunkit?). Hideki Matsui ripped the ball, hit his first homer of the year to seal the win, and stole a homer from Kevin Millar in the second to set the tone. Tino came back, made a great play at first, and gave me a warm fuzzy feeling inside, almost like it was the late 90's again. A-Rod got a hit with a runner at second (though he also made out three times). Sheffield ripped an RBI double. Even Womack was good.

And the Yankees won going away, 9-2.

I've been critical of the way the Yankees built this team, and I will continue to be so. One game is just one game. Bad players have good games, it doesn't mean they're suddenly good. Joe Torre made a foolish move batting Sierra cleanup, and he went 0-3 against Wells (who was giving up hits to almost everyone else). Bernie looked terrible, and didn't do anything but hit a sac fly and walk. It's bad enough that he can't field, if he can't hit either, then the Yankees look even more foolish for passing on Beltran.

They'll probably lose one of the next two games, they might even lose them both. This win doesn't mean they'll win the division, or the Wild Card, or the World Series. It doesn't mean they'll be able to handle the Red Sox any better than last year. It doesn't mean there'll be less taunting and booing at Fenway next week, and it doesn't mean that they've made the right moves.

But everything that could be accomplished on Opening Day was. They won, they won decisively. They put on a good show, they made us happy. Oh man, am I glad baseball's back.

--posted at 1:00 AM by Larry Mahnken / |

April 3, 2005

A great start
by SG

If you were to draw up the perfect opening day scenario, it would've been pretty close to what we saw tonight. It's only one game out 162, but there were several signs that portend good things.

1. Randy Johnson
I never liked Randy Johnson, although I've always admired his talent. But in the first inning when he threw three straight fastballs to Manny Ramirez clocked at 96, 96, and 97 mph, I realized how exciting it's going to be to have him leading the staff this year. If he keeps pitching like he did tonight, he'll win me over.

2. Jason Giambi
Giambi looked like last year never happened. He ripped a ground ball single in his first AB, which was precedeed with a nice ovation by the crowd. He also took two HBP, made a nice play on an errant throw by Jeter, and misplayed another ball, but he looked pretty good out there.

3. MVP-Zilla?
Hideki Matsui made a tremendous catch to rob Kevin Millar of a two run homer, and added three hits, including a monstrous homerun to CF off Matt Mantei. He appears even more confident and locked in than last year, and I think he can hit 40 HRs this year. If he can improve his defense, hit around .300, and maintain his walk rate, he would be a legitimate MVP candidate. I wonder if Mike Francesa still thinks that signing "that Japanese guy" was a huge mistake?

4. Tanyon Sturtze
I'm ready to start believing that he's for real. He threw two perfect innings against a pretty good lineup, striking out three. He was a little shaky on the first two batters command wise, but once he got loose he started cruising.

5. Derek Jeter
After last year, Jeter needs to have a big year to re-establish himself. If he can get back to .315 or so, and keep his power from last year as well as his much improved defense (still not Gold Glove worthy), he'll be right in contention with Miguel Tejada for best shortstop in the AL.

5. Joe Torre
Joe Torre again showed that there is cause for concern in Yankee-land. Between batting Ruben Sierra cleanup, taking Giambi out after only six innings, and pitching Tom Gordon with a 7 run lead in the ninth inning, he showed his continued tendency to make strange moves. The Giambi move was defensible, the game was fairly well in-hand and he probably wanted to let Jason leave the game with a good feeling about his play. The Sierra decision was pretty bad, especially when Ruben failed to do anything against Wells (although he managed to get a hit off of Alan Embree). The biggest issue I had was using Gordon in that spot, with a 20 man bullpen.

6. Tino Martinez
I always felt Tino was overrated during his time on the Yankees, but I do admit it was pretty cool seeing him back in the dugout, in a memories of better times kind of way. He made a great defensive play as well, and I think he can be a positive contributor this year as long as Torre is aware of his limitations and uses him accordingly. This is especially true with the news that Andy Phillips has been recalled to take Kevin Brown's spot on the roster when Kevin shockingly got placed on the DL. Phillips should get some platoon AB at the very least and a chance to show what he can do.

All in all, you had to be happy not just with the win, but the way things shook out. Obviously, it's a long season and a lot can change, but I'm going to enjoy this one until Tuesday.

--posted at 11:59 PM by SG / |

Showtime
by Larry Mahnken

It's only a few hours now until the season starts, and I am really, really excited.

There's nothing special about this season, I'm curious about how the imports are going to do, hopeful that Pavano and Wright can be good and that Womack can be not completely putrid. I'm really excited about seeing Randy Johnson in pinstripes, and boy do I hope he makes the Sox look bad tonight.

But what I'm really excited about is just the fact that it's baseball! Baseball that counts! Baseball that people would pay good money to see!

Baseball is always more enjoyable when you have an emotional investment in it. I don't have much emotional investment in anyone other than the Yankees, and it's hard to care that much about a preseason game. And the Yankees Classics on YES always lose something when you know how the game is going to end.

Oh, I'm excited.

I've said this several places, I've made it part of all my picks; I don't think the Yankees are going to win the AL East this season. I think their front line is as good or better than anybody's, but they have absolutely zero depth. There is no position on the field where an injury is not a complete disaster. Kevin Brown may be going on the DL, that means that Tanyon Sturtze is the fifth starter. If Posada goes down, then Flaherty starts; Bernie, Matsui, Sheffield, Giambi or Tino Martinez going down means more ABs for Sierra; if they lose A-Rod, Jeter or Womack, then they're playing Rey Sanchez -- who is actually a downgrade from Womack. Every team of course loses something when someone goes down, but the Yankees lose more than anyone, and by a lot. A few injuries could kill this team, and I think they'll get a few injuries.

I wouldn't have thought that the Yanks would win last year, either, though. I didn't pick them, and had you told me the numbers they would put up, I would have absolutely picked them to finish second. Sometimes the actual games break differently than you'd expect, and they could win out again. I certainly hope they do, but it's important to look back at the last three years, and take note that all you need to do is get in. Four of the last six pennants, and all three World Series' were won by the Wild Card team. And I don't think there's a better team for the postseason than the Yankees.

Unless things go terribly wrong, they'll have two aces, Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina. Carl Pavano might turn out to be good again, and he could be a third ace, or a #2 caliber pitcher. I don't expect much from Brown, maybe Wright will still be good. That's as good, probably better, than what Boston, or any other team will have, and the front end is no-doubt the strongest in baseball. Their lineup is superceded only by St. Louis and Boston, and not by a large margin. The bullpen, if rested enough, is outstanding. That's a killer combo for the playoffs, and I think they can win through no matter who the opponent or the ballpark.

We'll see how things break over the course of the season. But it's finally time to stop speculating about how things will go during the season itself, baseball is finally here!

--posted at 3:39 PM by Larry Mahnken / |

One man's Yankee predictions
by TVerik

I don't mean to slap SG around for his staff predictions, but this is a Yankee blog. So I'm going to give a few individual predictions.

One of the reasons I didn't give my predictions for individual awards the other day is because I really only follow one team enough to know rookies or non-star breakout players.

Picking injuries is not fun and fruitless. So I assume here that everyone's as healthy as they were last year, or the year before.

So without further ado:

Yankee team leaders:

OBP: Last year, Posada had a .400, Matsui had a .390, and Sheffield had a .393.

I don't see any new acquisitions challenging for this. Giambi, Jeter and A-Rod are both capable of challenging for this if they have good years (Giambi had a .412 in 2003, in an "off" year).

But the choice here is Posada. I think he'll hit a bit better this year, and walk about the same amount.

SLG%: Last year, A-Rod had a .512, Matsui had a .522, and Sheffield had a .534, finishing second in MVP voting. In 2003, Giambi had a .527, while Posada had a .518.

I think it's a bit of a toss-up. But I'll take A-Rod. I think he'll have a good year, for A-Rod-in-Yankee-Stadium.

Caught Stealing: This isn't usually seen in stat lists. But I regard stolen base counting totals as next to meaningless, and SB% unfairly penalizes very small sample sizes.

Last year, Sheffield was caught 6 times in 11 attempts, and Bernie was caught a putrid 5 times in 6 attempts.

Everyone's favorite second baseman, Tony Woe-mack, was only caught 5 times in 31 attempts last year; I don't know if we can count on that continuing. He was also caught 5 times in 2003, in 18 attempts. These numbers have been fallling; Tony was good for consistent double-digits earlier in his career.

Few of the Yankee basestealers are inefficient (save Bernie, and I don't consider him a basestealer). So while the smart choice to "lead" the team in CS would be Womack, I think Sheffield will continue to run and get caught. So Gary is my pick.

ERA: Only the dearly departed El Duque had an ERA under 4 among last year's Yankees (among starters). Kevin Brown was actually next-best at 4.09. But neither of them 150 innings. Newcomer Randy Johnson has been as high as 4.26 in 2003, but had a 2.60 last year.

Even given that those numbers will go up with a change of leagues (although Yankee Stadium might keep them a bit lower), it would be idiotic not to pick RJ for ERA leader (over 150IP). Unless Mussina (3.40 in 2003) bounces way back and RJ falls off or gets hurt, I have to choose Johnson.

The final choice here measures the usefulness of the Yankee bullpen. Picking anything for Rivera is silly - if he's healthy, he'll pick up 35 saves; even if he isn't effective. ERA for relievers is not a wonderful tool - sample size issues abound. Most statistics for relievers are usage-bound.

So, completely arbitrarily, I'll be choosing the Yankee reliever with the most strikeouts next year. in 2004, it was Gordon, with 96. Contrary to his reputation, Rivera is not particularly a strikeout threat anymore. So I'll have to choose Tom Gordon again this year; I can't see a newcomer having that many (unless Felix Rodriguez is better than I think he is, or unless Mike Stanton cleans out Giambi's medicine cabinet).

What do you think, blog readers? What categories would you throw into the list? Which players do you like or not like to lead the team in these?

--posted at 8:53 AM by TVerik / |

Home

Larry Mahnken and SG's
	Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
"Hey, it's free!"