Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

YES - some defensive analysis, please...

2007-05-06T10:53:00.000-04:00

I haven't posted in awhile... *shakes off rust*

But I was thinking about this today - YES does a very good job of bringing us the Yankee games from a technical perspective, and the broadcast team is generally very good (I've discussed the reasons I think Michael Kay is underrated in the past - I'm too lazy to dig up the link right now, but most of my reasons are technical in nature; his opinions are not for me). But the analysts are generally either players whose focus was on either hitting or pitching - Girardi and Flaherty talk more about pitching than hitting, and the rest of them are very good at discussing today's players practicing the craft that they once did.

I'd like to see some defensive balance to the team - I'm not advocating for even more people in the booth; three is plenty for me. But I'd like to see them either hire a new analyst or "unleash" an existing one in talking about the redheaded stepchild of baseball - defense.

They'd have to set it up in advance, and devote some technical resources to covering this aspect of the game. But point a camera at Derek Jeter in isolation of the rest of the play, for example. Where is he set up? What does his first step look like? What is the reaction time after a ball is hit (this can be compared in a side-by-side with the opposing shortstop that day making a similar movement). They talk about his footwork being great; why is that? What makes good footwork and bad footwork?

We all know that Giambi is a horrible first baseman while Dougie is very good. Why is that? Show us a side-by-side of the way they throw to second on a double play, or how they scoop balls in the dirt, and break it down.

Have one of their catchers talk about Posada blocking the plate; again, they do this on scoring plays only. Show me Jorge's method and then show me someone else's method, and talk about the strengths and weaknesses of each player's fundamentals.

YES paid zillions of dollars to get the rights for these games, and they are charging cable companies an obscene amount in order to carry it. If they enact my suggestions, it would be a low-cost way to bring the game into people's living rooms the way that few other broadcasters do.

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog v2.0

2007-04-02T01:24:00.000-04:00

Come on over and check out our new home! We hope you love it.

Our new URL is http://replacementlevel.com

We'll be keeping yankeefan.blogspot.com open permanently because all of the old comment threads are here, but this is the last post. So long, blogspot. It's been a blast.

Farewell, Old Friend

2007-03-31T03:04:00.000-04:00

OK, sometimes things don't go as planned, so don't get on my case if things turn out slightly differently than I say here.

This is, or at least should be, the next to last post made on yankeefan.blogspot.com. On Monday, SG, Fabian and I will be launching the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog on a new server, with a new address, and a new design. We're still working out the kinks, but I'm confident we'll be ready to go on Opening Day. Hopefully this post will act as a bit of motivation. ;-)

Anyway, we're all sure you'll like the new version of the RLYW. See you Monday!

Looking Ahead to 2007: The Yankee Bullpen

2007-03-29T22:52:00.000-04:00

Opening Day is less than just around the corner, so it's time to wrap up my 2007 Yankees previews with a look at the Yankee bullpen. Last year, Yankee relievers pitched a total of 510 innings, and ended up being about 3 runs above average collectively as a group. The bulk of that was the performance of the incomparable Mariano Rivera and Scott Proctor finally getting results that matched his talent.

This year's collection of bullpen arms has quite a bit of promise, but just like it has since 1996, it starts with The Sandman.

Mariano Rivera had another outstanding season in a career full of outstanding seasons. Over the last four seasons, Rivera's ERA has not topped 2. In 303 innings, he has an ERA of 1.69. There were two minor issues in 2006 that might be of some concern going forward. The first was a drop in his K rate. Rivera's K rate dropped from 80 in 78.3 innings in 2005 to 55 in 75 innings. Rivera's K rate has fluctuated throughout his career, so I don't think is a huge issue. The other issue was some elbow soreness that he had at the tail end of the season. Rivera eventually recovered after some time off and pitched well at the end of the season, and so far this spring he's been outstanding, so this is also a minor concern.

Rivera is difficult to project accurately. Projection systems are designed to work with the aggregrate population of baseball players, but Rivera is unique. He's consistently outperformed the league with regards to his batting average against on balls in play. He controls the HR better than most pitchers when you compare his ratio of HRs/flyball to other pitchers.

Rivera's projections for 2007 are still solid.

Rivera's 2006 was worth 23 runs above average. Most of the projection systems predict a falloff(except ZiPS), but as I stated above that's at least partly because of how hard it is to predict someone like Rivera. That being said, Mo is 37, and at some pont he's going to start slowing down.

This spring, camp started with noise about Rivera testing free agency. Part of that was surely the emotional response to seeing Bernie Williams not being brought back. With his new changeup, and playing for his next and perhaps final contract, I think Rivera is primed for yet another excellent season. If that happens, the Yankees will pay him what he is worth, and hopefully we'll get to see Rivera closing games in the new Yankee Stadium.

In 2006, Kyle Farnsworth showed why he drove Cubs fans nuts for years. When Farnsworth is on his game, you wonder how anyone ever hits him. Unfortunately, too often he was either not on his game, or fighting a balky back and unable to pitch. Farnsworth still delivered one of the most enjoyable moments of the season, when he worked out of a bases loaded jam (induced by his own crappy control) to catch David Ortiz looking at a full count slider with two outs and the bases loaded and the Yankees up by two in Fenway.

Farnsworth's not a lights-out reliever like Tom Gordon was. He'll have his moments, good and bad, and may not be the primary setup man in 2007 depending on how the people behind end up performing. Here are Farnsworth's projections for 2007.

Last year, Farnsworth's 4.64 RA was exactly average for a reliever, so he was average overall. Farnsworth projects to be a bit better than that this year. He has the talent to be even better than that, and the inconsistency to be worse. Like most Yankee fans, I'll be holding my breath whenever he comes in.

One of the biggest stories of 2006 had to be the emergence of Scott Proctor. Acquired in the Robin Ventura trade of 2003, Proctor has always had a good fastball, but bad command and mediocre secondary pitches had led to him being tatooed in the Yankee pen in 2004 and 2005. Proctor wasn't expected to make the team out of spring training until injuries got him on the roster. After a rough debut, losing a game in Oakland, Proctor became one of the most valuable Yankee relievers. He pitched often, and pitched well. Like many, I felt he was being overused, and I also felt he was pitching over his head. However, he actually improved as the season went on.

Last year was way out of line from everything in Proctor's prior performance history, which is reflected in his 2007 projections.

Projecting pitchers is often an exercise in futility. In the case of someone like Proctor, it's tough to know how much of last year was a fluke, and how much of it was a genuine change in his talent/ability. We won't know that until we see more. Proctor's looked outstanding this spring, and I'm starting to think he's at least somewhat for real. Even if he falls back towards his projections, he should be a useful part of the pen in 2007.

Luis Vizcaino seems like a decent middle reliever, but I doubt he'll be much more than that. Historically, he's exhibited a reverse platoon split.

vs LH: .229/.310/.400
vs RH: .249/.321/.427

He projects to be around average, which is fine.

I can't shake this feeling that Vizcaino = Felix Rodriguez, but hopefully it turns out better than that.

Mike Myers was supposed to be the Yankees' answer to David Ortiz. Not only did that not work out, but Myers was actually better against righties last year. There's a lot of noise in a single year's splits, so I'd expect Myers to revert to form this year.

When projecting Myers, you have to remember that he's a tactical option, and shouldn't really be assessed in terms of his overall production towards preventing runs.

Myers is in the last year of a two year deal, and I'd imagine that if he doesn't do the one thing he was brought in to do early on, he may get buried in the back of the pen or even released.

Brian Bruney throws gas. Unfortunately, it doesn't often go where he wants it to go. Bruney's still pretty young, and has been pretty nasty this spring, fanning 14 in seven innings, with just two walks to go with it. His control keeps him from projecting very well.

Bruney's the wild card in the pen to me. He could end up being the second best reliever in the pen if it clicks for him. Even if it doesn't, there's nothing wrong with having inconsistent guys who can strike people out around in the pen. If I had to pick one guy who could blow his projections away on the pitching staff this year, it'd be Bruney.

Ron Villone may or may not be a Yankee this year. Most of you know the deal with Villone. Great first half, horrible second half. Whether it was overuse or regressing back towards his mean, the real Villone is probably somewhere in the middle. I don't think Villone has any upside, but you could do worse with a long reliever/mop up guy.

Villone's looked lousy this spring. He may not have anything left.

If Villone doesn't make the Yankees, it'll likely be because Sean Henn does. Henn's been in the Yankee organization for what seems like decades, and has been fighting his way back from a pretty severe arm injury and surgery a few years ago. Henn used to deal in the high 90s, but now he's more of a lows 90s guy. He hasn't impressed in his brief major league stints, but a move to the pen may end up helping him find his niche.

Henn doesn't project as well as Villone for 2007, but sometimes you have to balance the needs of the present with planning for the future. Is the .5 difference in projected ERA really worth not finding out what you have in Henn for future? Henn will be 26 in April, it's probably time to give him a shot or let him go. With the news that he has a fourth option year, he also gives the Yankees roster flexibility, something that has often been an issue for the team.

The Yankees used the theory of sunk cost to acquire Chris Britton from the Orioles after picking up the option on Jaret Wright's 2007 contract. Britton had a decent season with Baltimore last year, but I have this nagging concern that Orioles fans didn't seem to care that he got traded. He's not a particularly hard-thrower, but works in the low 90s, and looks like he'll start the year in the minors after a shaky spring. He should get some innings this year and projects pretty well if he does.

Britton's struggled this spring, which has helped make the decision to farm him out easier.

Although he may start his season in the rotation, I'm listing Jeff Karstens in the bullpen since if all goes well, he'll be a long relief candidate. That's not a slight on Karstens, but if the Yankees plans go well, he's just not as likely to be good as any of the projected starting five.

Karstens looked much better than the guy who finished 2006 this spring until his last two starts. He had better velocity (91-92 on his fastball, compared to high 80s last year), seemed to have a sharper hook, and he was getting more grounders. While I think making judgements based on spring training stats is not smart, visual observations of players (especially pitchers) can be pretty useful. I like Karstens a lot more this year than I did last year, and it's primarily because his stuff now looks like it's major league quality.

The elbow issue he's having now complicates any assessment of him. It's tough to know if the Karstens we saw most of the spring just reverted to form recently, or if the stiff elbow was to blame. His projections seem harsh, but Karstens did have a 4.28 ERA in AAA last year, although he was outstanding after a rough start. I think Karstens will be useful reliever/spot starter this year, and am cautiously optimistic that he will exceed his projections.

Last on the list, Darrell Rasner. See Jeff Karstens. As far as I'm concerned, they're basically interchangeable, and will probably get moved up and down as needed all year.

Rasner projects a bit better than Karstens, but Karstens seems to have the organization's attention more than Rasner.

So what do all the numbers and projections mean? Here's a comparison of last year's pitching staff to this year's projections. I adjusted the innings totals of some of the pitchers to try and make them line up with last year.

Despite pessimistic projections for Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina relative to last season, improved depth replacing some really bad contributions by Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, and others should put the team in a position to end up with a better overall pitching staff. The rotation isn't spectacular, but it should be solid enough to get through the regular season. Whether they'll be pitching well when October starts is the $190 million question.

Link to all projections.

So, with all the previewing out of the way, let's see where the Yankees end up. When I looked at the Yankee bench I summed up the projections for the position players on offense and defense. They came out to 142 runs above average on offense, and 32 runs below average on defense. Add in the pitching staff's projected 44 runs above average, and the team ends up at 156 runs above average. So they project to be about 16 wins above an average team, or a 97 win team overall. You can knock off a couple of wins if you want to add in some more replacement level pitching, but this is still a damn good team. If Phil Hughes and/or Roger Clemens replace some of the worse innings in the projections above, they could be even better than that.

Should be a fun season, and it's only three days away.

Cheap Plug Alert: I wrote an article for the Hardball Times previewing five questions that will tell the tale of the Yankees in 2007.

Breaking News: Abraham - Yankees Set Roster From Peter Abraham's great Yankee blog:

LHP Sean Henn, C Wil Nieves and 1B Josh Phelps are on the team.

No word on yet on the No. 5 starter other than that RHP Jeff Karstens is headed to the DL.

NJ.com - Yankees: Phelps' chance has come, but Villone may go

2007-03-29T08:03:00.000-04:00

TAMPA, Fla. -- Josh Phelps has apparently won a spot on the Yankees roster.

Andy Phillips, who had been competing with Phelps to platoon at first base with Doug Mientkiewicz, yesterday was placed on outright waivers. The move (which was revealed by a major-league official who asked not to be identified because waivers are confidential) means that by tomorrow Phillips will be claimed by another team or sent to the minors by the Yankees.

Meanwhile, lefty reliever Ron Villone might have clinched his fate last night by failing to retire any of the three men he faced in a 12-2 loss to the Houston Astros.

The roster is tightening up. While I'm happy to see Phelps make the team, I do feel for Andy Phillips. I hope Phillips does get claimed and gets a chance to play in the majors somewhere. I still think he may have a chance at being a productive player, but I don't the Yankees are in the position to wait for it to happen.

Ron Villone looks shot. It would seem that Sean Henn's going to get the spot that was supposed to go to Villone, and I think that's a good move as well.

I'll wrap up the looking ahead pieces with the bullpen tomorrow.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Andy Pettitte & Kei Igawa

2007-03-27T18:29:00.000-04:00

With the regular season approaching faster than I realized, it's time to start doubling up my preview posts. So I'll take a look at Andy Pettitte and Kei Igawa together.

Yankee fans already know a lot about Pettitte, as one of the faces of the Yankee run from 1996-2001. I always considered Pettitte to be a little overrated, but he's a good pitcher, whose peripherals improved after 2000.

In the chart above, HR+ is league HR / league batters faced divided by HR/Batters Faced. It's a way to compare a pitcher's HR rate to the league, where a number higher than 100 is better than average, less than 100 is worse than average. BB+ is calculated the same way for BB, and K+ is calculated by dividing the pitcher's K rate by the league K rate, so it scales the same way. Pettitte's K+ spiked after 2000, and has remained above league average since. He's always been fairly good at controlling HRs until 2006, and his control has been pretty good for most of his career.

Pettitte picked up some velocity when the Yankees got Roger Clemens, which was credited to him working out with his idol. That led to improvement across the board. I actually felt Pettitte went from being overrated to underrated from 2001-2003. However, when his contract was up at the end of 2003, Pettitte left as a free agent. Whether it was the Yankees not giving him the 'respect' he felt he deserved or the rumors of family-related reasons, the Yankees watched Pettitte go to Houston, where he pitched pretty well for the most part, with an injury-shortened first season and a lousy first half in 2006 marring his record.

04/04/2006 - 6/28/2006
IP: 108
H: 136
R: 74
ER: 67
HR: 18
BB: 38
K: 81
ERA: 5.58

07/04/2006 - 9/30/2006
IP: 106.3
H: 102
R: 40
ER: 33
HR: 9
BB: 32
K: 97
ERA: 2.79

I have no idea why Pettitte was so bad in the first half, but the second half numbers are a good sign that he's got something left in the tank.

When Pettitte left, the Yankees got a compensation first round draft pick from the Astros. They used that pick to take Phil Hughes.

I've seen a little of Pettitte in spring training, and he's looked pretty good. He's not throwing as hard as he did during his peak, but he's a different pitcher now, using a curve and changeup more frequently.

Pettitte won't be asked to repeat his 1997 greatness, but he should be above average this year.

The other lefty in the Yankee rotation is Kei Igawa, the consolation prize when the Yankees failed to land the more coveted Daisuke Matsuzaka. Fairly or not, he'll be compared to Matsuzaka all year, but let's ignore that and just look at what he brings to the table on his own merits.

I took a look at Igawa a few months ago, so I won't rehash the scouting report stuff here. Now that I've seen Igawa pitch a couple of times, I'm more comfortable with his signing than I was at the time. He has good stuff for a lefty. His fastball sits at 89-90, and I've seen him hit 92 once in a while. His breaking ball isn't as sharp as I'd like to see, but it's passable. His changeup is pretty good, probably his best pitch. He has struck out 19 in 17 spring innings. He's also kept the ball in the park, allowing just one HR. Unfortunately, he's also walked 12 in those 17 innings. Even ignoring the walk total, his command has been pretty shaky, as he seems to miss the catcher's target a lot. If that's just nerves or getting used to the difference between the MLB ball and the Japanese League ball, it will hopefully get worked out.

The HR has been the biggest issue with Japanese League pitchers coming over to the majors. Here are my latest Japanese League to MLB translations. I refined these from the previous Igawa post by matching the innings totals for both samples so that the numbers wouldn't be skewed.

H: 1.10
R: 1.14
ER: 1.16
HR: 1.84
BB: 0.78
SO: 0.87

What these numbers mean is that a pitcher from the Japanese leagues coming over to the majors will give up hits at a 10% higher rate, runs at a 14% higher rate, etc. Their walk rate actually decreases in the majors, as does their strikeout rate. The number that really stands out is the spike in HR rate.

In 2004, Igawa gave up 29 HRs in 200 IP. In 2005, he gave up 23 in 172 IP. In 2006 he gave up 17 HRs in 209 IP. Controlling the HR will be the key in Igawa being successful. He supposedly changed his approach last year, knowing that his old style wouldn't work in MLB. If you translate just his 2006 using the numbers above, you get an ERA in the mid 3s, which would be great. However, we can't ignore 2004 and 2005 when projecting him.

So, speaking of projecting Igawa (and Pettitte), here you go...

Full spreadsheets available at this link

I'd take a combined 380 innings of above average pitching. If you slot Pettitte and Igawa to replace Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright, you go from 340 innings of -10 RSAA(runs saved above average) to 380 innings with an RSAA of 8. So an 18 run or so upgrade, roughly two wins.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Carl Pavano

2007-03-26T22:40:00.000-04:00

Pavano's an easy person to write up, because there's no performance record to analyze for 2006. With Chien-Ming Wang's hamstring injury, Andy Pettitte's back spasms, Mike Mussina's creature-of-habitness, and Kei Igawa's nerves all in issue, Pavano is looking like the likely opening day starter for the Yankees this season. Here's a look back at Yankee opening day starters of recent vintage.

2006: Randy Johnson (W)
2005: Randy Johnson (W)
2004: Mike Mussina (L)
2003: Roger Clemens (W)
2002: Roger Clemens (L)
2001: Roger Clemens (W)
2000: El Duque (W)
1999: Roger Clemens (L)
1998: Andy Pettitte (L)
1997: David Cone (L)
1996: David Cone (W)
1995: Jimmy Key (W)
1994: Jimmy Key (W)
1993: Jimmy Key (W)
1992: Scott Sanderson (W)
1991: Tim Leary (L)
1990: Dave Lapoint (W)

I had to go back to 1991 to find a worse opening day starter for the Yankees. Great.

Pavano's not a bad pitcher. He's not a good one either. He's a decent pitcher, who projects to be league average when he can pitch.

Link to Pavano's projections

If Pavano can exceed that innings pitched total and match his projections, he'll be an asset for the Yankees as a league average pitcher backed up by what's looking to be the best offense in the majors.

I haven't been impressed by what I've seen in spring training so far, but I also know that I haven't seen enough to make any definitive assessments about Pavano. It's also not my place to question the validity of his injuries the last few years. As far as I'm concerned, whatever Pavano gives the team this season will be a bonus, and I wouldn't be surprised if Brian Cashman will be looking to deal him if he gets a solid half season out of him.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Chien-Ming Wang

2007-03-25T18:40:00.000-04:00

"For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to notice that basketball players tend to be tall."
Bill James from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

No one can deny that Chien-Ming Wang's career to this point has been successful. However, his K rate has been historically low, which is typically a poor indicator for career longevity. However, Wang has one thing that the majority of low K pitchers did not have, and that's top-shelf stuff.

Wang's projections for 2007 aren't particularly good, mainly because he's such a statistical anomaly.

Wang was great last year, saving 28 runs above the average pitcher. The projection systems think he's going to lose 20 runs of value, although at least part of that is based on a projected shortfall of 40 innings. I do have concerns about Wang's health, because he went from a career-high 150 innings in 2005 to 218 last season and because of the rotator cuff scare in 2005, but he was strong all year so it may not be that much of a concern. With the recent news of his hamstring injury, I guess I should have been concerned. It sounds like Wang shouldn't miss more than 2-3 starts thankfully.

To me, Wang fits a profile similar to Mariano Rivera. There are players who operate in an area where projection systems designed for the collective major league baseball population just won't work. I think the Marcel projection is probably the fairest one because of that.

Wang has succeeded despite his low K rate because he does two other things well. He has good control, and he keeps the ball in the park. Opponents have slugged just .373 against Wang so far in his career. If he can continue to do that, he should be ok. Here's how Wang's ERA and FIP tracked over 2006.

Wang outperformed his FIP this season, but not to a level that would show he was extremely lucky in 2006. Wang's FIP of 3.96 ranked 15th among ERA-qualified AL starters last season.

One thing Wang's struggled with in his career to this point is pitching on the road. Here are Wang's career Home/Road splits, including batted-ball types.

For whatever reason, Wang gets a lower percentage of grounders on the road. He gives up more fly balls and line drives as a result.

Wang's lefty-right splits are not as extreme as I thought they might be.

Lastly, these splits are pretty interesting to me. Here's how Wang has done based on the # of outs.

Here's the link to the tables above for those who can't see them on the blog.

For whatever reason, with two outs, Wang's K rate spikes up considerably. This tells me he may have the skill to strike out batters more frequently than he has to this point, but is comfortable with his current approach since it's working. It's worth mentioning that even if you apply that 12.2% K/BF to all his innings, it's still just a K rate of about 4.5 per 9 innings.

I know what the numbers say, but I also know what I see when I watch Wang pitch. Wang should be able to continue to succeed in the majors, although he may have to make some adjustments along the way if his current style stops working. I think he's talented enough to do that, and I think he'll be fine, perhaps with some growing pains as he makes those adjustments.

On a different note, Boston moved Jon Papelbon to closer after I ran the Diamond Mind Projection blowout, so I re-ran 250 with each of the four projection systems to see what it changed. I had to adjust Papelbon's projections using Dan Szymborski's tool for converting starters to relievers. I replaced Paplebon in the rotation with Julian Tavarez and Jon Lester pitching 50% each.

Here's a comparison of the two runs.

Basically, there was no difference in the regular season. The improvement at the end of the game is mitigated by the weakening of the rotation. It does make Boston a better short-series team though.

Fox Sports.com: Wang to start season on DL

2007-03-24T11:36:00.000-04:00

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, a 19-game winner last season, will start the season on the disabled list with a right hamstring pull.

Wang, who had been under consideration to start opening day April 2 against Tampa Bay, is expected to be sidelined at least a month.

Well, that stinks.

Good News, Bad News

2007-03-23T16:31:00.000-04:00

The RLYW is one of the four blogs selected by SI for their poll on "Best Yankees Blog". That's awesome.

The bad news? We're getting DESTROYED. 2%. Not behind by 2% -- we HAVE 2% of the vote.

To be fair, Bronx Banter has only 6%, so that tells you how accurate this poll is.

YesNetwork.com: Pavano still shaky

2007-03-23T08:50:00.000-04:00

Pavano wasn't overly impressive in going 4.1 innings, giving up three runs (all earned) on eight hits with two walks and two strikeouts, but both he and New York manager Joe Torre seemed pleased with the progress the pitcher made since his last appearance March 17 in Clearwater against Philadelphia (in 3 innings or relief, Pavano allowed two earned runs on four hits with four walks).

"It was definitely an improvement from my last start," Pavano said. "At times I was a little wild; at times I was pretty consistent. I'm looking to improve on it and keep moving forward."

Pavano's healthy, but so far he hasn't looked good.

More camp notes from Rotoworld

Andy Pettitte (back spasms) won't make his scheduled start on Friday, but says he's feeling much better. "I feel a lot better, but I forgot how little of a say you have sometimes," Pettitte said. "I'm feeling better and that's really it. Every time I tell them what I want to do, they tell me how it's going to be." The left-hander seems a little frustrated with not being allowed to make his start, but the club is being understandably cautious. Pettitte will likely make only one more spring start before facing the Devil Rays in the Yankees' opening series.

Pettitte's looked pretty good when he's pitched so far. Hopefully this isn't a long-term issue.

Bobby Abreu returned to right field on Thursday and hit a three-run homer in the Yankees' win over the Reds. Abreu was a DH Tuesday in his first game back from a strained oblique.

Yay Bobby.

Josh Phelps hit his second homer of the spring Thursday off the Reds' Dustin Hermanson. It's going to be pretty hard for the Yankees to justify carrying Andy Phillips over Phelps. Phelps is 11-for-25 with three walks, while Phillips is 3-for-13 to date.

I still say if the Yankees don't want to make a decision on Phelps/Phillips yet, they should carry 11 pitchers instead of 12.

I'll try to resume the Looking Ahead stuff next week for those who care.

Newsday: Got Melky? Yanks glad they do

2007-03-22T09:28:00.000-04:00

TAMPA, Fla. -- Melky Cabrera probably wouldn't get a lot of votes from fans as the player most critical to the Yankees' season. Those affiliated with the team give a different account. They know approximately what to expect from players such as Mike Mussina, Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera. The 22-year-old Cabrera, though, is a wild card who some think could be on the verge of stardom.

Take Johnny Damon. When asked what is the biggest key for the Yankees this year, Damon listed health first, then said, "Finding a way to get Melky out there to play and get 400 at-bats. He just has an energy that makes it fun. He's a phenomenal prospect. He can be as good as he wants to be."

Getting Melky somewhat regular playing time this season should be a goal of the Yankees. He's a better bat than Doug Mientkiewicz, so if Jason Giambi can man first a few times a week, they can use Melky to rest the starting outfield while upgrading the offense. The defensive hit of putting Giambi at first should be mitigated by upgrading the OF defense if Melky's in left and Matsui's at DH. It will also be important for Melky's development, and for the team's plans as far as setting up their outfield of the future.

The 2007 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout

2007-03-20T22:38:00.000-04:00

It's that time of the year again, where I run some different projection systems through a multitude of Diamond Mind Baseball simulations to see how the MLB 2007 season projects.

I've done this the last few years, and here are the past seasons, and it's been hit and miss.

2005
2006

This year, I've added a new projection system to the mix. In addition to Dan Szymborski's ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA, and Diamond Mind's own projections, I'm also adding Sean Smith's new system CHONE. So I ran 1000 iterations of Diamond Mind simulations for each of the four projection systems listed above.

Before we get to the results, there are a few things you should keep in mind.

1)Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can't be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match the actual playing time of the players involved. I used the rosters and depth charts available at Baseball Prospectus as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it's a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 31-35 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do include projected playing time based on past health issues, and also random injuries which leads to some of the outlying results you see, but there's no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters in 2007.

4) These are the averages of 1000 seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.

5) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn't project well, don't blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. You can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, or the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80.

6) Since this is all automated, I don't break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens.

So with all those caveats out of the way, here are the results.

First up, 1000 iterations of CHONE.

Next up, 1000 iterations of Diamond Mind's projection disk.

Third up, PECOTA.

Lastly, ZiPS.

And here's how it looks if you roll up the results of all four into one giant dataset.

Here's what the column headings mean:

One other new thing I've included based on requests from some readers is the average record vs opponents. This is too big to display in full on the blog, so use the scroll bars or read a little further for the link to the full spreadsheet with all the data.

To read this, look at a team on the very left column, and read across. The first number under a team on the top row is the average number of wins the team on the left column had against that team, the second number is the average number of losses. So if you read across from Baltimore, you see they averaged 7.5 wins, and 10.5 losses vs. Boston across the 4000 sets of runs.

You can look at a full Google spreadsheet with all the results here.

Here's how the divisional races shape up graphically (click on the images to enlarge them).

Here are my quick thoughts by team.

American League
Yankees Made playoffs 80.8% of the time. 95 wins seems about right to me, although I have more faith in the offense scoring 900+ runs than the pitching/defense being the best in the AL East.

Red Sox Made playoffs 50.5% of the time.The Red Sox seem lower than I'd have thought, although a lot of that has to do with some pretty bad bullpen projections. They probably have more upside in their rotation than any team in baseball, as far as the projections for Josh Beckett and Jon Papelbon and what they may end up actually doing.

Blue Jays Made playoffs 20.6% of the time.Diamond Mind really likes the Blue Jays, predicting them to finish second in the East. The other systems are less bullish.

Orioles Made playoffs 2.4% of the time.I'm not sure why, but I think they'll be better than that. Not a ton better, but better. Bedard, Cabrera, and Loewen could all exceed their projections.

Devil Rays Made playoffs 1.1% of the time. It still sucks to be them, although they're getting better.

Twins Made playoffs 50.3% of the time. Everyone thought it was nuts that the Twins were picked to win last year too, but look what happened. That being said, I'd be surprised if their pitching performs that well.

Indians Made playoffs 44.6% of the time. They're looking pretty strong, but they looked strong last year too.

Tigers Made playoffs 40.2% of the time. A lot depends on how Gary Sheffield fights off age and his injury last season. His projections are fairly conservative. They should definitely be in the mix again this year though.

White Sox Made playoffs 3.0% of the time. This one is a real head-scratcher to me. I think they're going to have a tough time with the division they're in, but not this tough. I'd expect Don Cooper to harness some of the talented arms they have into a better pitching performance. They should pick up a few wins there, at the expense of the teams projected ahead of them.

Royals Made playoffs 0.0% of the time. At least they've got Alex Gordon, right? The Royals are the only team who failed to make the postseason at least once.

Angels Made playoffs 52.3% of the time. Their projections seem about right to me, they will be one of the better teams in the league as far as preventing runs.

Athletics Made playoffs 34.1% of the time. Oakland's going to miss the Big Hurt. That being said, if Rich Harden can make more than his 22 projected starts, they should be in the AL West mix.

Rangers Made playoffs 13.2% of the time. Maybe they'll get the 60 HR version of Sosa...

Mariners Made playoffs 7.3% of the time. Felix Hernandez may have to single-handedly carry them to the playoffs if it's going to happen.

National League
Phillies Made playoffs 50.4% of the time. Their projection surprised me too. They've got some of the best front-line talent in the league in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, but they've got some fairly significant holes in the lineup and bullpen. Luckily for them, their division isn't particularly strong.

Mets Made playoffs 42.8% of the time. I thought the Mets would project better, but given the uncertainty of their rotation maybe I shouldn't have. A lot depends on improvement by Oliver Perez, and Jose Reyes maintaining or exceeding his performance from last year. Both are certainly reasonable possibilities. The sooner they swap out Shawn Green for Lastings Milledge, the better. I suppose Mets fans can keep deluding themselves that their team is as good as the Yankees for now though.

Braves Made playoffs 37.5% of the time. It's all about a full season of Bob Wickman apparently. More seriously, it looks like the rebuilt bullpen and a solid middle of the lineup has them back in the mix after struggling last season.

Marlins Made playoffs 4.5% of the time. Losing Josh Johnson hurts, as does the lack of a real CF. There's enough young talent here to do better than this though.

Nationals Made playoffs 2.0% of the time. I'd be shocked if they won 71 games. This projection assumed a half season of Nick Johnson, which may be overly optimistic.

Cardinals Made playoffs 41.6% of the time. Last year's champs are still projecting as the class of the NL Central overall, although the different systems vary in this. ZiPS loves them, PECOTA doesn't.

Cubs Made playoffs 38.7% of the time. All that spending has improved them by a projected 19 wins, which is a lot. I'd probably give them a slight edge over St. Louis right now.

Brewers Made playoffs 22.2% of the time. They were a trendy pick last year, and it looks like they may be one again this year.

Astros Made playoffs 19.3% of the time. Their projection doesn't include any time for Roger Clemens. If he pitches half a season for them and replaces someone like Wandy Rodriguez, it's probably a 3 win upgrade.

Reds Made playoffs 3.5% of the time. I ran these before they announced Griffey moving to RF. Whether that makes a ton of difference remains to be seen.

Pirates Made playoffs 2.9% of the time. Will this be the year Littlefield gets fired?

Padres Made playoffs 49.3% of the time. They were my gut pick to win the division this year, so I was pleasantly surprised to see them win the simulated NL West.

Diamondbacks Made playoffs 32.2% of the time. They're another trendy pick to win their division, but a lot of it depends on how soon the Big Useless can come back, and if he's no longer useless when he does.

Dodgers Made playoffs 29.1% of the time. I thought Juan Pierre was a ten win upgrade. Apparently not.

Rockies Made playoffs 12.4% of the time. For some reason I thought they were worse than an 80 win team.

Giants Made playoffs 12.0% of the time. When I ran an initial set of 100 simulations in late December, they projected to win the division. However, based on the revised rosters and depth charts, which cut Barry Bonds's playing time severely, they're now bringing up the rear. If Bonds can play in more than the 50% of the games he's predicted to, expect them to win more frequently than this.

Update: Added a divisional placings break-down based on a suggestion by gotowarmissagnes. Click on the picture to enlarge it. If you want to see any other divisions let me know.

And there you have it. The 2007 Diamond Mind projection blowout. Results are not guaranteed.

North Jersey.com: Yanks' Mientkiewicz back in the swing of things

2007-03-20T09:20:00.000-04:00

DUNEDIN, Fla. -- In the ninth inning of a lopsided exhibition game, Doug Mientkiewicz pulled into second base with a double -- an event that less than half of Monday's crowd of 5,510 actually witnessed at Knology Park.

Prior to smacking that drive up against the right center field fence, Mientkiewicz had merely one hit in his first 25 Grapefruit League at-bats.

Mientkiewicz's bad start this spring has a lot of people who hated his signing up in arms. However, it's spring training and small sample size caveats apply. Also, I don't see any way he's not breaking camp as a Yankee. The bigger question is who is he going to be sharing time with. If the Yankees can't decide between Phelps and Phillips, then they should probably carry 11 pitchers, not 12, and keep both. Besides, when's the last time Joe Torre made any meaningful use of the last two or three men in his bullpen anyway?

Looking Ahead to 2007: Mike Mussina

2007-03-18T16:42:00.000-04:00

Mike Mussina put up two of the worst seasons of his career in 2004 and 2005. Entering the final guaranteed year of his contract at age 37, a rebound seemed to be less likely than a continued descent. However, a spring training discovery by Jorge Posada that Mussina's grip was tipping his changeup was credited with Mussina rebounding last season. I think improved health was also a factor.

The table below shows the pitch results for all of major league baseball in 2006, as well as Mussina's 2004-2005 seasons, and 2006, expressed as a percentage of all pitches thrown.

The only real change between 2004-2005 and 2006 was that Mussina threw fewer pitches that were called for balls, and more called strikes. Hitters put the same percentage of balls in play, and swung and missed at the same percentage of pitches. If the changeup was more deceptive, it wasn't causing hitters to swing and miss any more often. This tells me Moose's health was probably the main factor in his 2006 resurgence.

Mussina's ERA went up as the season progressed. From the start of the season through May 31, Mussina had an ERA of 2.42. From June 1 on, it was 4.28. However, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was fairly consistent throughout the season. FIP is a quick and east way to remove the factors that are at least partially outside of a pitcher's control when assessing their performance, by focusing on the components that they have direct control over, namely HRs, BB + HBP, and Ks. It's calculated using the following formula:

(13 x HR + 3 x (HBP + BB) - 2 x K ) / IP + 3.2

The final result is a # that should scale fairly closely to ERA. If a pitcher's ERA doesn't line up with their FIP, you should expect them to move closer together the more they pitch. This is illustrated very clearly if you look at Mussina's 2006.

So, he was probably a little bit fortunate in the first half of the season, and a little unfortunate in the second half, but he basically pitched fairly consistently well all season. In 2006 among ERA qualifiers, Mussina's FIP was fifth in the league, behind Santana, Bonderman, Sabathia, and Lackey. He was also able to go a little deeper into games this season compared to last year, but he's still not much more than a six inning pitcher most of the time. Here's how Mussina's performance in 2006 breaks down by inning.

Calculating ERA from the play by play data is a little tricky due to inherited runners and partial innings, so instead I'm using CERA here (component ERA). This is calculated using the formula 31 x OBP x SLG. As you can see, the sixth inning is by far Mussina's worst (with a significant sample size), yet for some reason Joe Torre is often asleep at the switch when the implosion comes. It would behoove the Yankees to have someone at least loosening in the pen when the sixth inning starts in a Mussina game. With a fifty man bullpen that shouldn't be an issue.

Mussina projects to be worse in 2007, which is understandable given his 2004 and 2005 seasons.

RSAA is runs saved above average.

Anyone who can't see the charts above should be able to view them via this link.

He's still projected to be around a win above average, or three wins above a replacement pitcher. If he is healthy, I'd expect him to better those projections, but health is a legitimate concern, and he hasn't looked particularly good in spring training so far, although he pitched pretty well today.

This season will be a pivotal one for Mussina's fading Hall of Fame chances. He lacks a lot of the baubles that a typical HOFer has, but if he can get a World Series title and/or a 20 win season, it'll help his chances a lot.

Yankees.com - Notes: Igawa still making adjustments

2007-03-16T08:31:00.000-04:00

Eight of Kei Igawa's first nine pitches missed the strike zone Thursday, and with two Atlanta Braves on base and none out, Ron Guidry made an unexpectedly early trot to the mound.

Communication has been just one hurdle for the Japanese left-hander this spring, but whatever Guidry said in his Louisiana twang, it seemed to help.

Igawa struck out the side to end the inning and, even as he battled spotty control, finished off three scoreless frames to complete his third Grapefruit League start.

I got to watch Igawa for the first time last night. His fastball was better than I expected, pretty consistent at 90-91, but his command was horrible. Even on his strikes, he was missing Jorge Posada's target on pretty much every pitch. Like Philco said in the comments of the last post, the strikeouts are a good sign that his stuff can get big league hitters out, but if he doesn't get his command that's not going to fly.

With the Yankees not needing a fifth starter for at least a few weeks, I think the Yankees should probably start Igawa in AAA. Putting him in the major league bullpen as the long reliever won't give him the work he needs to get his mechanics in order. I'm still not expecting great things from Igawa, but from what little I saw last night he's got the potential to be a decent fourth or fifth starter.

Looking Ahead to 2007: The Bench

2007-03-14T23:06:00.000-04:00

I'll wrap up my Looking Ahead pieces for the position players with the Yankee bench. I already looked at the backup catcher candidates here, as well as Melky Cabrera here, so let's finish it off with a look at Miguel Cairo, Andy Phillips, and Josh Phelps.

Here are their offensive projections. Anyone who can't see the embedded Google spreadsheets below can use this link instead.

And here are their defensive projections.

I know Cairo is a horrible hitter, but I still like him. He makes up for an awful bat with decent defense all around the infield. The Yankees didn't have a lot of options in the utility infielder market this offseason, so I was fine with bringing him back. Now we just have to hope he doesn't play a lot.

The last spot on the bench is going come down to one of Andy Phillips or Rule 5 pick Josh Phelps. Phillips brings a good glove at first and some good AAA numbers to the battle, whereas Phelps brings his former top prospect billing and lead glove. Phelps has a better major league track record than Phillips, and projects to be a better hitter. He also gives the heavily left-handed Yankee lineup an option to rest one of their lefties, as he's hit .293/.357/.500 vs. lefties in his career, compared to .257/.325/.460.

Phillips's glove is superfluous with Doug Mientkiewicz around. I championed Phillips getting a chance last season, and he got it. He disappointed, and unless the Yankees are willing to carry 11 pitches, either he or Phelps has to go. The smart move is keeping Phelps, who is younger, projects to hit better, and who has shown more talent at the major league level. I think Brian Cashman knows this, or they wouldn't have taken Phelps in the Rule 5 draft.

That wraps up the position players. What does it all add up to? This.

I used some rough playing time projections, then filled in the gaps with replacement level play on both offense and defense. The Yankees project to score 142 runs above average using linear weights. The average AL team scored 804 last year, so adding 142 to that, I get a team that projects to score around 950 runs. We should probably knock that down a bit since Yankee Stadium tends to play as a slight pitchers' park, but 940 or so seems eminently reachable, and with some health and performances that exceed projections, 1000 has an outside chance.

The defense is ugly, but no worse than it's been in the recent past.

I'm pretty happy to see the position players projecting so well. Now they just have to say healthy and meet or exceed their expectations. Next up, the pitchers...

Looking Ahead to 2007: Alex Rodriguez

2007-03-13T00:13:00.000-04:00

After winning the MVP in 2005, Alex Rodriguez had what was a down year for him in 2006. It's a testament to Rodriguez's ability and talent that a 35 HR, .290/.392/.523 season would be considered disappointing, but that's the price of being the highest paid player in the game on a team that did not achieve its stated goal in 2006.

I've already run through the numbers about whether or not Rodriguez has been clutch, so I'm not going to rehash that stuff here. It's a fact that he has been horrible in the postseason as a Yankee recently, but he's not the only player on the team who has been. Hopefully he gets a chance to redeem himself this year.

Unsurprisingly, Rodriguez projects to be the best 3B in the AL in 2007.

Those projections make Rodriguez worth about four wins above the average 3B, and six wins above a replacement level 3B. To put that in perspective, here are the other 3B who project better for 2007.

Miguel Cabrera
David Wright

I'm not worried about Rodriguez's offense. I am worried about his defense, which has been lousy after an outstanding 2004.

Here's a graph showing how Rodriguez's Zone Rating compared with the AL average over the course of the year. As you can see, he fell off pretty significantly from mid-June on for whatever reason.

Rodriguez lost about 15 pounds this offseason in an attempt to regain some of his agility. Hopefully it can help his defense.

For those who can't see the embedded tables above, you can use this link instead.

Since I looked at Rodriguez's play by play batting splits fairly extensively in the post I linked near the top, I'm going to do a little something different and look at how many errors he made behind each pitcher on the Yankees in 2006.

That couldn't have sat well with Mike Mussina.

Lastly, here's how Rodriguez's errors as a Yankee break down vs opponents.

I won't get into the soap opera that surrounds Rodriguez, because honestly I feel it's boring. We're going to be hearing and reading about his opt-out option all year. The same people that are going to be bringing it up constantly are the ones trying to run him out of town, at which point they can criticize him for leaving, instead of criticizing him for staying and wanting to get rid of him. I'd ask the people who want to dump Rodriguez one simple question. Who do you replace him with? You're not getting Miguel Cabrera or David Wright to fill that hole.

All I care about is if Rodriguez helps the Yankees win games. That's all any fans should really care about. My one concession is the A-Rod cover counter on the left, where we'll be keeping track of his back page appearances all season. Let's hope it's mainly for game-winning hits.

I feel like I should write more to defend Rodriguez, but instead, I'm going to quote from an article on ESPN. I basically avoid ESPN like I avoid 2004 ALCS "highlights", but I saw a very fair piece on Rodriguez linked at High and Tight from Yankee-basher Jim Caple.

I mean, what has he ever done that is so bad? Despite his best efforts at living a clean, responsible life, he has a worse reputation than Terrell Owens. I know I've mocked him as much as anyone, but now I mostly feel sorry for him. He's one of the best players in the game, and people act as if he's Bubba Crosby. Enough is enough. Forget the soap operas that stem from his silly insecurities -- any day now I expect him to shave his head -- I'm going to root for A-Rod this season. No more cheap shots, no more easy punch lines … from now on, I'm his No. 1 fan. Not quite like Kathy Bates in "Misery," but I'm pulling for him all the way.

And here's why you should root for him as well.

Root for A-Rod because years from now, you'll be bragging to your children and grandchildren that you saw one of the greatest players who ever took the field. You'll be able to say, "I saw Rodriguez hit .358 with 36 home runs and 123 RBIs in his first full season. I saw him hit 409 home runs by the time he was 30. I saw him win an MVP at shortstop for a last-place team one year and then win an MVP at third base for a first-place team two years later. I saw him hit .315 with four home runs in three American League Championship Series. I saw him play in 10 All-Star games his first 11 seasons."

It may not sound as sweet as telling your kids, "I saw A-Rod hit a World Series-winning home run in the bottom of the 10th inning," but it certainly sounds much better than telling them, "I threw fake dollar bills and garbage at A-Rod because he signed a contract that I would have killed to get."

Root for A-Rod because if you don't like Barry Bonds challenging Hank Aaron's home run record, just wait -- Rodriguez might wind up passing Bonds in a decade. A-Rod hasn't testified before a grand jury that he "unknowingly" took steroids, but he has hit 464 home runs, which is a total Aaron didn't reach until he was two years older than Rodriguez is now and a total Bonds didn't reach until he was almost four years older. Trust me, if A-Rod does set the home run record, you'll not only be rooting for him then, the commissioner will show up to see it.

Root for A-Rod because despite all you hear about him choking in the playoffs (and yes, he has stunk the past two Octobers) he still has nearly as high a career postseason OPS as Jeter (.847 to .863). A-Rod also hit for a higher average and produced more runs in the 2004 postseason than Jeter did. In fact, Jeter has played in 24 postseason series and hit .233 or less in nearly one-third of them. That's not to knock Jeter, but only to point out that if you play enough postseason series, you're going to shine in some and stink in others. Give A-Rod another chance this fall, and he will rise to the occasion. Especially if he feels as if fans would rather see him succeed than bitch about his failures.

Root for A-Rod because, other than saying stupid things, he never does anything to embarrass his team or the game. He never gives less than his best. He never approaches the game with anything less than complete professionalism. So what if he can't help himself from making ridiculous statements in an attempt to please everyone at all times? There are far worse crimes for an athlete -- and we complain about them all the time.

But mostly, root for A-Rod because if he has another MVP season and shines in October, all those obnoxious Yankees fans will have to shut up and quit blaming him for everything that ever goes wrong with a team that has needed better pitching ever since it let Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte go.

I agree with Caple completely.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Jorge Posada

2007-03-11T10:35:00.000-04:00

Despite being as big a part of the Yankees' recent success as any other player, Jorge Posada doesn't quite get the recognition he deserves. Somehow, despite being involved in three World Series championships, and being one of the top offensive catchers in baseball throughout his career and playing in New York, he's flown under the radar.

Posada had a down season in 2005, losing 48 points of OBP and 51 points of SLG. At age 33, and with many innings behind the plate, it sure seemed logical that this was the start of his decline. Fortunately for the Yankees, he rebounded in 2006 to put up a solid season, ranking as one of the more valuable catchers in baseball again. He also had his best overall defensive season, at least partially due to the tutelage of Tony Peña.

Posada again projects to be one of the better catchers in baseball in 2007, despite his age.

Posada projects to be the second best offensive catcher in the AL in 2007, behind only Joe Mauer. Poster J had asked about how Posada would rate as a 1B, so I've put that in as well. His offense would still be a tick above average for a 1B.

Like I mentioned above, Posada's defense was also outstanding in 2006, as he saved seven runs above average. Here are his defensive stats over the last five years and his 2007 projection.

Last year boosts Posada up a bit, but he still has a fairly long history of being average, so his projection is a touch above average. With his projected offense that's fine.

I've been messing around a little with baserunning numbers, although it's still in the early stages, but Posada's one of the worst baserunners in baseball from what I've doen so far. From 2000-2006 I have him costing the Yankees about nine runs on the bases. This jives pretty well with what I've seen visually, but it's not a huge impact on a seasonal basis.

I thought it would be interesting to put Posada's performance since he became the full-time catcher in 1998 into context, so I put together the chart below. This compares Posada to the average catcher given the same number of PA for every year from 1998-2006.

So over this stretch, Posada's been worth 214 runs above the average catcher.

For those who can't see the embedded spreadsheets in this entry, you should be able to see them via this link.

Posada's been one of the better catchers in baseball over his career, and some people have mentioned him as a possible Hall of Famer, but does he have a realistic case? To try and answer that, I'm going to run him through Bill James's Keltner List, a set of 15 subjective questions which James used as a barometer for a player's HOF worthiness.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

It's pretty safe to answer no to this question.

2. Was he the best player on his team?
He has a reasonable argument for being the best player on the 2003 Yankees, but for the most part this was never really true.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

From 2000-2003, Posada was the most valuable offensive catcher in the American League. I think we can answer yes to this.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Uh, yeah.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

He's 35, and still going strong. Yes.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

Nah. There's a fairly long list of people ahead of him here.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Three of his top 5 most similar players through age 34 are in the Hall of Fame. However, his counting stats are way, way low.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Right now, no. It all depends how long he can keep playing at a decent level.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

The fact that he's a catcher providing above-average offense should be a consideration, but other than that, not so much.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

Probably not. I think Ted Simmons and possibly Bill Freehan had better careers, although Posada could catch them both.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Posada placed third in MVP voting in 2003, but was never close in any other season. It's safe to say 2003 was an MVP-type season, and 2000 is close.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

Posada's been an All Star four times, which is low for a Hall of Famer.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

In 2000 or 2003, sure. In most other seasons, likely is probably too strong a word.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Aside from something that the Hall of Fame would probably not want to consider, not really.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

He seems to be a bit of a red-ass at times, but for the most part I think he has.

Posada's not really Hall of Fame material. Not unless he can play as long and as well as Carlton Fisk (his top most similar player according to Baseball Reference)did. Fisk managed 1170 hits and 207 HRs after age 34. If Posada could somehow do that, he'd end up at 2000+ hits and 400+ HRs, and likely cruise in. The odds of that are probably infinitesimal. Posada's counting stats are hurt by the fact that the he didn't get regular playing time in the majors until he was 26, and didn't get a full-time starting role until 28. The one good thing that may come out of that is that it may allow him to hang on a bit longer than a typical catcher would.

Posada's been one of the most important parts of the Yankees' success over the last decade. He will probably get a plaque and possibly get his number retired by the Yankees when he retires, and deservedly so.

North Jersey.com: Yankees notebook Mar 8

2007-03-08T08:42:00.000-05:00

There'll be no designated hitter today when the Yankees play the Atlanta Braves at Disney, so Jason Giambi is scheduled to see his first game action at first base this season.

Giambi's going to have to play some first this year if the Yankees want to get their best offensive lineup in the game. Hopefully he can handle it health-wise.

Bobby Abreu (strained oblique) could take dry swings by the weekend

Good.

Bronson Sardinha's ninth-inning RBI single gave the Yanks (5-1-1) a 1-1 tie with the Reds (6-0-1) in 10 innings.

Sardinha is clutch. He may sneak in some PT this season if injuries require it.

Mariano Rivera pitched a hitless inning, with one strikeout, and used his new change-up. "He came in with a big smile on his face," Torre said.

Mo + changeup = pain for opposing hitters.

I'm still really, really busy at work so this is about all I have time to post. I'll try to get my Jorge Posada preview up some time soon.

Minor League Q & A

2007-03-07T11:56:00.000-05:00

SG is swamped at work (see below) and I'm swamped at school, but I just wanted to point something out. A little while back I did a minor league Q&A with two of my favorite Yankee prospect bloggers. The "discussion" was recently published and is linked in the headline.

Newsday: Mr. Laid-back can relax now

2007-03-07T09:38:00.000-05:00

WINTER HAVEN, Fla. -- Johnny Damon might be the last player one would expect to feel tense or put undue pressure on himself.

Damon is known as Mr. Laid-back, the guy who chills out everyone else. He says he got away from that to an extent last year, his first as a Yankee. He had just crossed enemy lines, so to speak, donning pinstripes after four years with the Boston Red Sox, where he helped them beat the Yankees in the ALCS en route to the 2004 World Series championship.

"I think I just tried to do too much," Damon said. "I wanted to succeed all the time, and I'm not that type of player. I normally have been able to relax and just go with the flow. Last year I just tried to do a little too much."

I'm swamped at work but wanted to get a new post up. So here you go...

Spring Training Notes (3/5/07)

2007-03-05T16:44:00.000-05:00

-Phil Hughes struggled in his first appearance of the Spring, but that’s not much of a worry. When a guy has the physical ability as well as performance track record of a Hughes, you don’t get worried because he does poorly his first time out in the Spring. He was obviously a bit nervous and that hurt him, as he wasn’t finishing on most of his pitches, leading to spotty control and poor break on his curveball.

-Jose Tabata seems to be in good shape. The difference between when I saw him last year and seeing him this year seems to be that last season he was built like a big kid and now he looks like an NFL running back. He solidified this opinion my going 1^st to 3^rd very quickly on A-Rod’s botched double in the first game of the Spring. This has eased some of my worry about his weight/development as I feel he might just be one of those stocky fast guys with a broad base of skills, a la Bobby Abreu. I was afraid he might have to be downgraded to a one-dimensional slugger, one of the primary reasons I didn’t grade him as a straight A on my Top 25.

-Marcos Vechionacci looks like he’s beginning to grow into his body. He’s already gotten pretty big and he has plenty of room to get bigger. I was impressed by the way he pulled the ball on his first hit as that was something that he has struggled with in the past and I don’t think the less meaty Vechionacci that we saw last year would have been able to do the same thing. I think strength and leveraging that stretch as he gets bat to ball will be the most critical aspect of Marcos’ development this year. He has the plate discipline to succeed in Tampa; it is just a matter of improving the quality of his contact.

-Ross Ohlendorf was very impressive in his first outing of the Spring. The Princeton product looked a lot like Wang and you have to assume that’s the projection the Yankees were making in acquiring him. He worked off of his 92-94 MPH sinker and had a very nice outing. Reports in the offseason made it seem as though his velocity on the pitch would be a tick lower than that, but I think this is about what should be expected. I think he’s going to have to refine his secondary pitches some more though because I’m not sure his sinker is of the quality of Wang’s, which is what allows Wang to get by with such a limited repertoire.

-Steven Jackson got some work in today, but didn’t look very good at all. He was mainly 89-90 and it looked incredibly straight for a guy who is supposed to be a sinkerballer. He didn’t show much in the way of other pitches and got knocked around a bit as well. I’ve speculated on Jackson as a poor man’s Ohlendorf and Ohlendorf as a poor man’s Wang. The problem with this is that Wang, despite great performance thus far, does not have the greatest room for error. The more you downgrade the quality of Wang…the less enticing the pitching prospect. Hopefully that makes as much sense to you as it did in my head.

-I love Tyler Clippard. I’m not going to pretend I’m without bias because the fact of the matter is that I’ve had a huge man crush on him since 2003 and every time Baseball America or someone else has questioned his ability, it has made my man crush larger. That said, I don’t think I’m out of line in saying that Clippard was terrific today. His much-maligned fastball was 89-92 and looked like it had solid movement on it. His changeup gave him the most trouble as there were a couple of times he didn’t finish on the pitch and it flew on him, most noticeably on the HBP. His curveball wasn’t thrown much, but he got his lone strikeout on it and would have had another strikeout in an earlier AB had the umpire not blown the call, so that pitch was working well. He also displayed what seemed to be a quick move to 1^st. Overall, I would say Clippard did a good job of showing what he’s all about and why his future may not be as dull as some seem to anticipate.

-As a result of injuries, Humberto Sanchez has not pitched any Spring innings. Is anyone surprised? I didn’t want to rate Sanchez ahead of Clippard during the offseason, but gave into everyone’s raving about his stuff. I’m beginning to regret that decision, but you know, small sample size and all.

-The Run Fairy™ is alive and well.

-Bronson Sardinha is Melky Cabrera with less discipline and, as a result, less ability to hit for average, but more power. He might be John Vander Wal.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Melky Cabrera

2007-03-04T20:15:00.000-05:00

Melky sucks. He can't hit. That's my opinion from having seen him play. It is also the shared opinion of two Major League general managers.

John Sickels on Fri Mar 03, 2006 at 03:54:17 PM CST

I wonder if John would like to revise that comment?

After a very difficult callup in 2005, which saw Melky Cabrera misplay a fly ball into an inside the park HR in Fenway, Cabrera came back strong in 2006. He started the year off in Columbus, where he hit .385/.430/.566 over 31 games. When Gary Sheffield went down, Cabrera was called up on May 9. Melky hit .318/.392/.394 in May, earning himself a full-time role. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a June where he hit .214/.312/.296. From July 1 on, he hit .294/.369/.422.

Cabrera put up an OPS+ of 100, which means he was a league average offensive player. He made up for below average power by having an above average OBP. Since 1945, 120 different players have put up a league average OPS+ at an age of 22 or younger over 400 plate appearances. Since 1990, the list of players who have done this is:

Ken Griffey Jr. (1990)
John Olerud (1990)
Gary Sheffield (1990)
Travis Fryman (1991)
Juan Gonzalez (1991)
Ivan Rodriguez (1993)
Jason Kendall (1996)
Derek Jeter (1996)
Alex Rodriguez (1996)
Scott Rolen (1997)
Vlad Guerrero (1998)
Andrew Jones (1998)
Ben Grieve (1998)
Adrian Beltre (1999)
Carlos Beltran (1999)
Albert Pujols (2001)
Austin Kearns (2002)
Miguel Cabrera (2004)
Joe Mauer (2005)
Brian McCann (2006)
Prince Fielder (2006)
Ryan Zimmerman (2006)
Melky Cabrera (2006)

That's a pretty good list of players, although there are a few people who can probably be labeled as disappointments in there. That's the good news. The bad news is that Melky's power output was substandard, especially for a corner OF.

If you filter the list of players who had an OPS+ of 100 or better in a season where they were 22 or younger and remove all players who slugged over .400, you get a list of 38 players. Not one of those players ended up slugging .500 for their career, with Reggie Smith's .488 being the best of the bunch. However, there are several good players in the list, including Carl Yazstremski and Boog Powell who ended up hitting for a good amount of power.

This doesn't mean Melky can't be a productive player, but it does tell me that the likelihood of him adding a lot of power is small.

Here's how Melky projects in 2007.

The projection systems all feel Melky should add some pop in 2007, enough to be worth about eight runs above a league average hitter over a full season. However, if you position adjust him for LF, he ends up as a slightly below average LF offensively. Since he'll likely be moving around between LF, CF, and RF, we can probably reduce the positional adjustment a bit and assume he'll be around a league average OF.

Melky's defensive projections by zone rating are not very good, but with very little sample size to go on, I think they're basically useless.

Other metrics loved Melky's defense in 2006, so I think we need more data before we can try and assess Melky's ability on defense. Cabrera did show improvement over the season. He had a ZR of .769 over his first 31 games, which is equivalent to about a -30 over a full season. Over his last 85 games, he had a ZR of .837, which would equate to a rating of -4 over a full season. Considering the quality of defensive play the Yankees have typically gotten in the outfield recently, that's pretty good. Also, Melky's arm was rated very well in this article at the Hardball Times. He saved about 3 runs with his arm.

Poster b-man wondered if an alignment of Melky in LF, Hideki Matsui at DH, and Jason Giambi at 1B was better than the current projected alignment of Matsui in LF, Giambi at DH, and Doug Mientkiewicz at 1B. Using the offensive and defensive projections I've been using, it's pretty close.

Melky's defense could be better than projected, which could make Combo 2 better. If Jason Giambi continues to hit worse as a DH, it would also make Combo 2 better. Unfortunately, Giambi's inability to stay healthy as a full-time 1b probably makes Combo 2 less effective overall.

Lastly, here's a look at Melky's splits by month, including batted ball types.

After hitting the ball on the ground a lot in May, he began hitting more fly balls and line drives as the season progressed, and his production improved until he fell off a bit in September. His batting average on balls in play(BABIP) was well below what it should have been in that month, although he did better than expected in other months. But his final batting line ended up matching up pretty well with what we'd expect given his batted ball types. So overall he wasn't really lucky or unlucky in 2006.

Melky should get a decent amount of playing time this year, resting all three starting OF, and also covering any injuries which may pop up. I think he'll add a little more power this season, and look forward to watching his continued development.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Hideki Matsui

2007-03-01T01:48:00.000-05:00

On May 10, Hideki Matsui played in his 1,768th consecutive baseball game, spanning his career with Yomiuri and the first 518 games of his Yankee career. Then came May 11. Mark Loretta hit a flare to left and Matsui unsuccessfully tried to make a sliding catch, fracturing his wrist and ending his streak.

Matsui still had the presence of mind to retrieve the ball and throw it in despite being in obvious pain, something that impressed me quite a bit. Matsui underwent surgery the next day, and was out for four months.

2006 was basically a lost season for Matsui. However, it did allow for the emergence of Melky Cabrera, who went from a player with an ininspiring minor league stat line prior to 2006 to a very good fourth outfielder with the possibility of developing into even more.

Back to Matsui, a wrist injury for a hitter is scary, but Matsui's successful return at the end of the year showed that it shouldn't be an issue.

Here's how Matsui projects offensively in 2007.

Matsui projects to be worth about 22 runs above an average hitter over 150 games. However, when you position-adjust his numbers for LF, he loses about nine runs in comparison. So offensively, he's should be about 13 runs better than average.

Matsui has the talent to be better than his offensive projections. Here's how his position adjusted batting runs would translate over 650 plate appearances from 2003 through 2006.

2003: 12
2004: 39
2005: 26
2006: 33

Even considering his age, I think his projections are a little pessimistic, and he should be a bit better, somewhere between his 2005 and 2006 levels. He should hopefully be closer to being 30 runs/three wins above average on offense.

Unfortunately, even more than Derek Jeter, Matsui gives up a lot of his offensive value on defense.

Matsui hasn't adjusted well to LF as a Yankee. His defensive numbers in CF are actually better than his numbers in LF (by zone rating), albeit in a much smaller sample. Those 13 runs above average on offense become only three runs above average when you factor in a projected defensive hit of -10. So Matsui's a touch above the average LF overall, and about 2 wins above a replacement level LF. There's nothing wrong with being average. Hopefully he can DH a little more this season to minimize the defensive hit.

Matsui has a reputation of being very good against lefties for a lefty, mainly because of his identical career average against them of .297. However, in his career he's lost about 70 points of OPS against lefties vs. righties. That's not as extreme as many lefties, but it's probably another indicator that the Yankees should look to rest him once in a while against a lefty, especially now that the streak is over.

Here's Matsui's batted ball data broken down vs. lefties and righties. I took a look at this to see if there was any change in his approach vs. lefties.

He has hit more grounders against lefties and more fly balls against righties, but I don't think it's statistically significant.

There's some question about whether Matsui is any better than Melky Cabrera. Right now, although it's probably not the popular opinion with many Yankee fans, he is. We'll look at how much of a difference there is when I get to Melky's preview.

Update: The Yankees are on TV today, on YES at 1:15 EST. Here's the the link to the full spring training schedule.

Early ZiPS and Diamond Mind Projections

2007-02-27T16:27:00.000-05:00

I've gotten a few emails from people asking about projections with Diamond Mind. It's still too early to run my big set, but here's a small set of 100. I'm using ZiPS this time, instead of CHONE. Both will be part of my eventual 1000 run set (along with PECOTA and Diamond Mind's own projections), coming sometime next month.

I've added a bit more information in here based on some feedback and comments I've received in the past. One thing I've done is added the results within one standard deviation of the mean for all teams for wins, runs for, and runs against to show variance. The columns under Div (Div W, Div Mode, etc.) are the values for that placing in the division. So in the AL East, the average wins to take the division was 95, to take second place was 88, etc., The last column is just the average # of wins that it took to capture the wild card in that league.

Again, it's probably still too early for this to be very meaningful. However, there's another 900+ run projection for the Yankees.

Newsday: Pavano is only bruised

2007-02-27T10:49:00.000-05:00

he MRI of Carl Pavano's left foot showed only a bone bruise, and the injury-plagued righthander was surprisingly upbeat and honest yesterday regarding his outlook.

For now.

In other news, Bobby's got a boo-boo.

Just when the Yankees received good news on Carl Pavano, the team suffered its first serious injury of the spring, losing Bobby Abreu for two to three weeks with a strained right abdominal muscle.

According to Joe Torre, Abreu felt something early in batting practice, but didn't think much of it. As the session went on, Abreu felt the muscle grab at him, ending his day early.

They can and probably will take it easy with Abreu, especially with Melky around.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Bobby Abreu

2007-02-25T20:08:00.000-05:00

Gary Sheffield got injured on April 29 in a collision with Shea Hillenbrand. Sheffield sat out a few games, tried to play a couple of games through the injury, went on the DL, was re-activated and played another six games, then was shut down for the bulk of the season. This pressed Bernie Williams into a full-time role. From the time when Sheffield underwent wrist surgery, Bernie managed to hit .292/.347/.485. Unfortunately it came with subpar defense, and it also pressed Andy Phillips into a full-time role which he was not equipped to handle, hitting .251/.294/.426 from the time of Sheffield's wrist surgery to the end of the season.

The hole in the lineup was something Brian Cashman made a move to fill, and he did it in fine fashion, using the Yankees' financial advantage to provide salary relief for Philadelphia and acquiring Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle for three minor leaguers and lefty reliever Matt Smith.

Abreu had become the object of scorn by a vocal group of fans in Philadelphia despite putting up good numbers, as he was deemed as unclutch and other things (sound familiar to anyone?). However, Abreu arrived in the Bronx and seamlessly integrated himself into the third spot in the lineup.

The Yankees averaged 5.6 runs a game prior to Abreu's arrival. From Abreu's first game August 1 on, they averaged 6.1 runs a game. This doesn't mean that Abreu himself was responsible for adding .5 runs a game to the Yankee offense. However, by adding Abreu, the Yankees created fewer outs per plate appearances and saw a few more pitches every game, which had a cascading effect on the rest of the lineup.

Pre-Abreu, the Yankees saw 159 pitches a game. Post-Abreu, they saw 166. That's seven extra pitches a game. The average relief outing in the AL last season was 19 pitches, so that's an extra inning from a reliever every three games. Assuming those innings are pitched by lesser pitchers, it helps explain at least part of the offensive spike.

The other benefit of acquiring Abreu was that it freed up the Yankees to pick up Gary Sheffield's option and then trade him for some good arms, while improving their likely overall output in RF.

Here's how Sheffield and Abreu project in 2007.

At a salary difference of about $3 million, the Yankees project to be about one win better offensively next season by swapping out Abreu for Sheffield. If you factor in the expected playing time, it's closer to two wins, although that's skewed by Sheffield's injury last year.

One concern I have is that in adding Abreu, the Yankees have made themselves heavily left-handed. While they still have Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter as righties/switch hitters, the bulk of their power comes from lefties. Abreu historically loses a lot of his value against lefties.

Career vs RHP: .312/.426/.549
Career vs LHP: .277/.376/.399

Thankfully there aren't many good lefties in the AL East. The Yankees can probably use this to rest Abreu against some lefties and get Melky Cabrera a little bit more playing time.

Abreu also projects better than Sheffield defensively, although he was pretty bad during his Yankee tenure.

Another knock on Abreu is that he is tentative against the wall. With Yankee Stadium's short right field and close fence, this could be an issue. His Yankee performance in 57 games is certainly a little scary, and could be an indicator of his reputed wall-shyness. Given that it's only a third of a season's worth of innings, it could also just as easily be a small sample size blip.

For comparison, Sheffield projects around a -8 this season. So add another half win to Abreu's value relative to Sheffield.

Abreu brings the Yankees OBP and long at bats in the third spot. Having him on base for Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi is going to drive the offense this season. Even if CJ Henry or any of the others traded end up developing into good players, this was a smart trade at the time, and it looks even better now.

Newsday: Hughes throws 'filthy stuff'

2007-02-23T07:41:00.000-05:00

If Phil Hughes was even a tad nervous about throwing batting practice to the Yankees' major-leaguers in front of manager Joe Torre and company, it sure didn't show.

The 20-year-old Yankees prospect took the mound at Legends Field yesterday with a calm and determined look and delivered pitches that looked very much like major-league quality.

"We could have used him last year," Jason Giambi said.

Facing Giambi, Hideki Matsui, Todd Pratt and Raul Chavez, Hughes showed off his impressive repertoire, allowing only two of his 34 pitches to be hit into fair territory.

Hughes is turning into the story of camp so far.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Derek Jeter

2007-02-22T07:12:00.000-05:00

Derek Jeter probably should have won the 2006 MVP, at least over Justin Morneau. People like Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, and Grady Sizemore all had comparable seasons, but Jeter was more valuable than Morneau in 2006.

Regardless, he didn't win it, finishing second in what was an outstanding season by any measure. Jeter had his best all-around season other than his sublime 1999, finishing with his second highest OPS+. More impressive is that he did it at the age of 32, when you'd expect players to be getting worse, not better.

Any time a player's batting average spikes, there's a good chance there's some measure of luck involved. In Jeter's case, we can look at his batted ball data to determine if there was a change in approach that can at least partially explain it.

The chart above breaks down Jeter's ball types as a percentage of his total balls in play. g = grounders, f = fly balls, l = line drives, p = pop ups.

Jeter line drive percentage was higher than his established level from 2000-2005 last season, and his fly ball percentage was lower. The combination of the two explains at least part of the extra 40 points of batting average he had. It also explains the low HR output. Jeter's more valuable to the Yankees if he's putting an OBP of .400+, than he is if he's hitting 20 HRs with an OBP of .352.

For a shortstop, it's hard to complain about Jeter's offense. He's been consistently solid offensively every season, with some outstanding seasons mixed in. He projects similarly for 2007.

Jeter projects to hit comfortably above .300, after projecting in the .290 area last season. Add in the positional adjustment, and Jeter is about three wins above an average player, five wins above a replacement player, offensively at least.

But there's the rub. The rub that makes people accuse me of "hating" Jeter. It's the defensive metrics that show that Jeter gives back part of his offensive value on defense.

For the most part, Jeter has scored below average by almost every defensive measure worth considering for almost every season in his career. He has been better over the last three seasons by Zone Rating, which you can see below.

Jeter was pretty solid in 2004 and 2005, but dropped a bit last season. Again, I want to reiterate what it means when you see that Jeter is a -5 defender. It means that over the 150 games he played in 2006, he failed to make a play that an average shortstop makes once every 20 games. If your eyes tell you that Jeter's not a bad defender, it's because for the most part, he's not. Visually, I think it's clear he lacks at least some range, especially up the middle, but the numbers say it's not leading to him missing fifty plays a season that he should be making.

One interesting thing to look at is how Jeter's ZR has fluctuated from season to season. Take a look at the chart below, which shows how Jeter compares to the league average AL SS every season.

Jeter's been a touch above average, and way below average and everywhere in between in his career. At least part of it is probably playing through injuries, and another part of it could be a positioning choices the Yankees have made in different seasons. Defense shouldn't fluctuate that wildly. It's also interesting to see that the general quality of defense at shortstop in the AL has declined over the last 11 years.

I think there's enough data that says Jeter's not a great defender that I'm inclined to believe it. I do think the outrageous spike seasons where he was really bad are probably at least partially explained by positioning.

That doesn't mean he's not a great player to have on your team. He's an entertaining player to watch (when he's not bunting). He gives the team great offense out of the shortstop position, and he gives compelling interviews and sound bites to the media. Well, maybe not that part.

More than any current Yankee, Jeter is hated by non-Yankee fans. It's not Jeter's fault, it's the fault of his treatment by the media and the Yankee hype machine. When someone is built up to be be bigger than they are, the natural tendency is for backlash. Besides, who gives a rat's ass what a non-Yankee fan thinks anyway?

Rawlings: 50 Years of Gold Gloves

2007-02-21T10:58:00.000-05:00

A reader emailed me about this. You can go vote for who you feel are the best defenders of the last fifty years. The Gold Glove awards are pretty useless in my opinion these days, but there are some genuinely great defensive players on there who deserve to be recognized.

Out of curiousity, I ran the ZR numbers for all the players on the ballots (basically anyone who played since 1987), and here they are.

When you consider the fact that the numbers above reflect Ozzie Smith's numbers after age 32, they are even more impressive. A lot of these numbers are post-peak for players like Schmidt, Keith Hernandez, Evans, Concepcion, and Dawson, so I keep that in mind.

I wouldn't put much stock in Mattingly's rating as just about average, as I think ZR has some limitations in how much information it gives us about 1B. So feel free to vote for him if you want.

NY Daily News: Nice guy Brian now in spotlight

2007-02-20T12:10:00.000-05:00

...
Cashman knows all Rivera's talk about "respect" and possibly having to "move on" is agent-speak, a ploy to fire up fans and media in an attempt to shame the Yankees into prematurely showing Mo the money. Naturally, if the unexpected did happen, and Rivera winds up flying the coop, the media will torch Cashman. He will be the heavy.

He's already playing that role in this Williams saga. Judging by the facts of this case, Cashman constructed a roster designed to facilitate the end of Williams' Yankees career. If Williams was given any hope of making the team, and then did make it, the next step could be Joe Torre playing him regularly. It is not a reach to suggest Cashman was wincing when Torre went public, detailing his recent conversations with Bernie.

If Williams is finished, there will be some tears. Once they stop flowing, Torre will have preserved his St. Joe image. Cashman? In some media quarters he will be characterized as a cold, calculating businessman who finally slammed the door on Williams' illustrious Yankees tenure.

It may be cold and calculated to squeeze Bernie Williams out, but Brian Cashman's job is to put the best team he can on the field, not live in the past. It's the reason most fans would make awful GMs (including yours truly).

Looking Ahead to 2007: Jason Giambi

2007-02-19T00:10:00.000-05:00

-Giambi is DONE. his swing has a gaping hole in it, he can't play defense, and his contract is unmovable. he is the number 1 reason they are stinking up the joint. you can't get zero offensive contribution from your DH. that's the definition of designated hitter.

-I don't think I can watch any more games that Giambi starts.

-Giambi must go. He's such a weasel for taking the money at this point anyway. Should be booed out of the joint every time he has the arrogance to show his face. He's a fraud.

-I don't see why Giambi is any better a choice than Sierra at the end of the game. I seem to remember another situation recently in the ninth inning with the bases loaded where Giambi got his chance and made a fool of himself. I'm sorry, but I'd rather see Sierra up there than the putrid Giambi.

-Dump Giambi. Swallow the bullet and dump him.

-Right now Sierra is a far more dangerous hitter than Giambi and that's the bottom line.

-Release Giambi - it's a big pill to swallow, but he needs a change of scenery. Bring up Andy Phillips, or heck, even Shelley Duncan.

-giambi - sucks and has the worst contract in MLB

-giambi will not hit 20 hrs this year. Will be lucky to get 12.

-SG, thanks for keeping this site going but give it up on Giambi. He's done. Get over it. I just wish the Yanks could find a way to get over it.

-Your eyes should tell you all you need know about Giambi. A lousy 1st baseman, and with his walks he clogs the basepaths real nice. What a waste.

-Giambi's body is literally wasting away in front of us. Pointing out that Sierra has been even worse doesn't help Giambi in any way, although I might agree in the short term to pinch hit Giambi instead of Sierra. Point is, both are taking up roster slots that could go to a player that actually PRODUCES RUNS.

-Giambi looks done. This isn't based on just the first two and a half months of this season, but all the way back to the latter half of 2003. In fact, if you look at his numbers last year, when he had some health problems as a seemingly credible excuse, they are almost identical to his performance this year. And that's just his hitting.

-This is the new Jason Giambi. At 34, he seems more likely to continue at his current level of play than return to the level he was at in his late twenties and early thirties.

-I just hope no one thinks that this is a turnaround for Giambi.

-As concerning Giambi. . .you are crazy. I'm glad he helped to win the game last night, but he will never hit close to 30 homers in a season again.

-I like how coming into the season alot of baseball people said Giambi would be proof of how Steroids didn't help players that much because he would rebound to hit .270+ with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI's (Steve Philips on ESPN). Now that he has been exposed as a fraud nobody will admit that he made his career off of steroids.

-giambi is a roid using bastard. dump him.

Various Posters to this site, April, May, and June 2005

Some of you may recognize your words up there.

There was plenty of reason to be concerned about Jason Giambi through the point that most of those posts were made, as you can see in the splits below:

It certainly appeared that Giambi's power had vanished until his resurgence in July of 2005. Last year Giambi followed up with another solid season, although he suffered through some nagging injuries and was very streaky. The nagging injuries shouldn't have been a surprise, not when you consider that he was 35 last season. The streakiness is likely just a manifestation of the injuries as well as the randomness of a player's stat line over small samples.

Last season and 2005 have helped push Giambi's projections for 2007 back to respectability, even accounting for age, as 2004 will have less weight when predicting him going forward.

I can't see any way Giambi doesn't slug .500 next season if he's healthy enough to play. CHONE and PECOTA see him slugging in the .515-.520 area, which is probably more realistic. While I'd love to see him hit even the .272 he hit in 2005, the shift seems to make that hard for him.

Although it appears that Giambi will not need his first baseman's glove very often this year, I'll still post his defensive numbers and projections below.

No wonder they want to make him a full-time DH.

A large part of the desire to DH Giambi is to keep him healthier, but the issue with making Giambi a full-time DH is the persistent split he's exhibited when playing first base vs. playing DH. A large part of that is probably influenced by the fact that he's more likely to have DH'ed when he was hurting, so the numbers are at least partly explained by that. Here are those splits as a Yankee.

That is a real and persistent split, and there is enough of a sample size that it should be a reason for concern. Couple that with research that shows that players tend to have worse numbers when DHing, and it's going to be at least a slight issue. However, when trying to determine a player's talent, you can't just ignore half of their numbers. It's the reason that using just home/road stats or just platoon stats will give you an incomplete picture of a player's talent. So I wouldn't expect Giambi to hit .231/.384/.460 next year, solely because he's DHing.

I'm trying to use play by play data in at least some of these previews to get a look at some numbers that aren't typically analyzed, which can hopefully be pie-charted. In Giambi's case, one of the most fascinating aspects of his game is his batting eye.

I broke down the pitch by pitch results for all of baseball in 2006, and here they are.

What this chart says is that 37.2% of pitches were taken for a ball in 2006. 17.2% were taken for a called strike, 16.9% were hit foul, 8.3% were swung on and missed, .6% were foul tipped, and 19.9% were hit into play.

Let's look at the same numbers for Giambi.

Giambi takes non-strikes at a rate 20% higher than the MLB average. What I found more interesting in this data was that he actually swung and missed less frequently than the MLB average.

Here's are the two sets of data compared graphically.

There are two guaranteed years left on Giambi's deal. What was a tremendously risky contract at the time may end up giving the Yankees a decent return on their investment. How Giambi does this season will probably be the determining factor in how much value they end up receiving over the life of the deal.

I'm happy to see Giambi recover from 2004, and from his ill-advised use of steroids. He seems to be genuinely well-liked around the game, and if he is in fact clean now, it's evidence that you don't necessarily need steroids to produce at a high level if you have the natural ability. He did cheat, and he'll always be labelled a cheater, and that's fair, he's got no one to blame but himself for that. That doesn't make him an evil or bad person in my book. It makes him a guy who tried to take unfair advantage of the system in place, got busted for it, and who appears to have worked his way back from it.

Newsday: SPRING TRAINING: Moose to Carl: Show us

2007-02-16T07:15:00.000-05:00

Carl Pavano brushed aside questions about any work he needs to do in the clubhouse, saying his bad reputation among teammates is overhyped by the media.

"I think it's just something you guys have had fun with," Pavano said yesterday, referring to a group of reporters standing before him.

But Mike Mussina has a problem with that, and he had no problem voicing his brutally honest opinion about Pavano's brutally disappointing first two seasons with the Yankees.

Two days after Joe Torre said Pavano has a "sizable" amount of work to do in the clubhouse, Mussina said Pavano does not deserve his benefit of the doubt because of his questionable past.

Mussina, speaking about an hour after Pavano did, said, "I'm just looking at it from the way each thing happened and the timing of each. You form your own evaluation. It didn't look good from a players' and teammates' standpoint. It didn't look good. Was everything just coincidence? Over and over again? I don't know."

The press just loves their spring training controversies, don't they? If Pavano can stay healthy and pitch, this stuff will blow over.

Looking Ahead to 2007 - Doug Mientkiewicz

2007-02-15T08:53:00.000-05:00

In a nightmare for spelling-challenged Yankee bloggers everywhere, the Yankees inked Doug Mientkiewicz to play first base in 2007. Mientkiewicz brings a reputation as a good glove with a decent batting eye, but very little power, especially for a traditional power spot.

I wasn't wild about the Mientkiewicz signing, but frankly when I compared the options, I didn't see much in the way of better options, at least on the free agent market.

Mientkiewicz's offensive projections aren't pretty.

He projects to be below average for a first baseman, even with a passable OBP. The thing is, he's not replacing a very good first base situation from 2006. Here's how the Yankees fared at first base in 2006.

The chart should be self-explanatory. The first line is all Yankee 1B in 2006. The second line is just Jason Giambi's line at first base, and the last line is the first basemen sans Giambi (mainly Andy Phillips). That's who Mientkiewicz is replacing.

A lot of Mientkiewicz's reputation comes from his glove, and zone rating agrees that he's pretty good there.

This is purely chances converted into outs. Mientkiewicz also has a good reputation for saving bad throws from his infielders, which has been measured to be statistically valid in the Fielding Bible, which should help a certain third baseman who gets a lot of flack,

Add it all up, you have a slightly below average player at first base. He projects to be about five runs below average over a full season. If he meets those projections, he'd be worth about a half win to a win above what the Yankees got out of first base last season without Giambi. The Yankees can also try to use his glove to better advantage by leveraging it in games where they lead the late innings if they end up keeping Josh Phelps and starting him against lefties.

Mientkiewicz is coming off back surgery, which could be a good thing if it helps him outplay his projection.

So yeah, Mientkiewicz isn't great, but he isn't really horrible either.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Johnny Damon

2007-02-14T00:05:00.000-05:00

I pray this is not true. My happiness about the Dotel signing will be turned to furious anger if this turns out to be more than just idle speculation.

-Me, after hearing that the Yankees had signed Johnny Damon

Sometimes, it feels good to be so completely wrong about something.

Damon of course came from the arch-rival Red Sox last season, in a move that was difficult to accept emotionally for many of us. Baseball-wise, it was a sound move, at least in the near-term, as the Yankees upgraded a trouble spot significantly. We'll see how well the signing holds up for the next three years, but for 2006 it was a pretty clear win for Brian Cashman.

How much did Damon help in 2006?

Here's a comparison of every AB and defensive inning played by the Yankees' CF in 2005 and 2006.

Here's what all that means in terms of runs. BR in the chart below is batting runs using linear weights, and DR are the defensive runs saved above below average using Zone Rating converted to runs.

So Damon's signing made the 2006 Yankees fifty runs better in CF on offense and defense, about a five win upgrade.

Here are Damon's 2007 projections on offense.

The projection systems generally agree that Damon should still be above average in 2007, although down a fair amount from 2006. Damon's projections heading into 2006 were similarly pessmistic, so I am a bit more skeptical about these. Also, faster players tend to decline more gradually than slower players, which should be an advantage for Damon.

And here is his defense over the last five seasons and his 2007 projection.

So he projects about average as far as catching fly balls.

Damon does have a very weak arm, which impacts his defensive value somewhat. To look at how much, I looked at the MLB averages from 2000-2006 for two specific situations.

Extra bases taken by a runner on first on a single.
Extra bases taken by a runner on first on a double.

For scenario 1, the average runner advanced 1.27 bases on a single. For scenario two, they advanced 2.05 bases on a double. Against Damon, they advanced 1.3 and 2.05 respectively. So Damon allowed 8 bases more than average in these situations. The average value of an extra base is about .25 runs, so Damon's arm in these situations cost the Yankees about two runs in 2006. There are probably other situations that I can add in here, but I don't think they'll make a ton of difference. Maybe another run or two.

And here's something completely random. Derek Jeter had 139 plate appearances with Damon on first base. In those PA, he hit .385/.482/.521.

Over the season, I grew to respect Damon and his game. He seems like a good guy in the clubhouse and he gives it his all on the field. It made me feel a little hypocritical, but we root for laundry in the end.

In an unrelated roster move, the Yankees have re-signed Ron Villone to a minor league deal. He gets $2.5 million if he makes the team. If I were a betting man, which I used to be, but no longer am, I'd guess he makes the team along with Mike Myers. I can't see a scenario where the Yankees don't take two lefties in the pen, especially with 19 games against Boston. It's probably bad news for one of Chris Britton or Brian Bruney.

NY Daily News: Rivera ready for hardball

2007-02-13T08:59:00.000-05:00

Mariano Rivera has long been the image of icy calm on the mound during pressure-packed October moments, so it's difficult to imagine the Yankee closer exhibiting frustration.

But Rivera's answers to questions about a possible contract extension in an interview yesterday may have revealed his true feelings about the stagnant talks, despite public professions that he is not upset.

Rivera, who is entering the final year of his contract, brought up for the first time the possibility he might look elsewhere, though he has often talked about pitching in the new Yankee Stadium and going into the Hall of Fame in pinstripes.

"I definitely want to finish my career here, but if they don't give me the respect I deserve, I have to move on," Rivera said. Asked if he felt he wasn't being given that respect, Rivera responded, "The Yankees always give me the respect. When it comes to these times (contracts ending), I don't like to talk about it. It's a business.

Pay him.

Looking Ahead to 2007: Robinson Cano

2007-02-11T20:10:00.000-05:00

I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.

I've seen Cano play a lot, and I'm not even sure he'd be a productive Triple-A player. Let's start with his defense; it's brutal. He has terrible footwork and simply lacks any kind of instincts around the bag. There's no way you want him playing up the middle. He might have the raw speed to not be awful in left field, but that's about as kind as I can be regarding his glovework. Offensively, he's a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake. Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front. He's mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall. To add insult to injury, he's also a terrible baserunner.

In his prime, I think he could hit .280/.320/.400 while playing awful defense. Yipee.

-David Cameron, February 20, 2005

Reading that scouting report never gets old. To be fair to Cameron, prospecting is a very difficult thing to do, and it's very probable that the Cano he saw play is not the Cano the plays for the Yankees now. Players can develop, and their skills can change. And Cameron was far from the only person who didn't think Cano was any kind of a prospect.

After replacing the unsurprisingly horrific Tony Womack in early 2005, Robinson Cano followed up a solid debut season with an outstanding sophomore season. Cano led AL 2B in many value metrics, from Win Shares (tied with Tad Iguchi) to VORP, Cano was rated the most valuable second baseman in the AL. Throw in defense that rated from average (Zone Rating) to above average(UZR), and the Yankees had a gem in their 24 year old 2B. Cano's a slashing type hitter. He does not work the count and rarely walks, but he's very adept at hitting the ball the other way with some power, and used that to great advantage in 2006.

One concern when projecting Cano going forward is that so much of his value in 2006 was dependent on his .342 batting average.

Here's the list of players who've had a season where they hit for an average of .330 or higher at an age of 25 or younger in a full season (400+ AB) since WWII.

Richie Ashburn
George Brett
Miguel Cabrera
Robinson Cano
Rod Carew
Tommy Davis
Billy Goodman
Vlad Guerrero
Tony Gwynn
Al Kaline
Fred Lynn
Bill Madlock
Don Mattingly
Joe Mauer
Willie Mays
Brian McCann
Vada Pinson
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Gary Sheffield
Rusty Staub

There's not a bad player in that bunch, is there? What this tells me is that any player good enough to hit as well as Cano did in 2006 at a young age is not likely to be a fluke. He may not be a true talent .340 hitter, but he's clearly talented enough to produce at an All Star level. He may never walk that much, but if he can play average to above average defense at 2B, he's going to be one of the better players in baseball at the position.

So let's look at Cano's projections for 2007. (to enlarge any images below just click on them)

Not surprisingly, he's not projected to hit .340 again. It appears that the projection systems all agree that he should be solidly above .300, projecting to be about two wins above the average 2B offensively.

Defensively, Cano has been graded as about average by Zone Rating so far in his career. The Fielding Bible hated him in 2005, and I'm not sure how they rated him in 2006. UZR felt he was about average in 2006, but rated him as a +10 in 2006. Since I'm using Zone Rating, I project him to be about average again in 2007.

So offense plus defense, Cano looks like he should be worth about 2.5 wins above the average 2B in 2007. If you want to put that in terms of replacement level, a replacement level player is typically about two wins worse than average if you use a reasonable estimate that doesn't assume replacement level on both offense and defense, which is unrealistic. So add two more wins, that makes Cano about 4.5 wins better than replacement level 2B.

With the projections out of the way, I wanted to take a deeper look at Cano's underlying stats, since his main skill is volatile (batting average). Remembering an interesting article over at The Hardball Times, where Dave Studeman broke down some batted ball data, I used my play by play database to look at the different batted ball types and how often they become hits, and what kind of hits.

Retrosheet classifies batted balls as one of four types. Groundballs, fly balls, popups, and line drives. Here's the summary of the different types of batted ball types for all of MLB in 2006, and how they broke down as far as outs and hits/types of hits.

For example in 2006, there were 62782 ground balls hit. 45831 of them were converted into outs, or 73%. 21.7% were singles, 1.9% were doubles, and .1% were triples.

Theoretically, we can look at the similar breakdown for Cano and see if he has been getting "extra" hits that he may be getting lucky on. I'm looking at 2005 and 2006 combined for Cano, just to give us more data to work with.

So when Cano has hit a ground ball, it's been a hit 28.5% of the time, compared to the league average of 27%. Over the 453 ground balls he's hit, that's seven extra hits, which would make his career average .312, not .319. So I feel pretty comfortable that he's not been particularly lucky as far as ground balls becoming hits, and that any regression in this area shouldn't impact his value too much.

Looking at fly balls, Cano's turn into hits 30.4% of the time, league average last year was 28.3%. That's another four hits over two seasons which he conceivably may have gotten lucky on. Add those four to the prior seven hits, and you're down to a .308 career average.

Moving on to pop ups, we now see that Cano's gotten two more hits than you'd expect based on the league average conversion rate for popups. If we assume league average luck on the batted balls so far we remove 13 hits from his line, which puts his career average at .306.

Last are the line drives. Line drives are the best type of hit for a hitter, because they are the least likely to be converted into outs. Cano was actually a touch unlucky here, getting one fewer hit than you'd expect based on his line drive percentages.

If you adjust his line and replace his actual results with the league averages for the different types of batted balls, you still end up with a batting average of .307. So even if you factor in that Cano may have been lucky to this point to have a career line of .319/.342/.490, a correction using batted ball data still puts him at somewhere around .308/.331/.476. That would still be a higher OPS than any full-time AL 2B had last year. Add in the expected improvement of a 23 year old who just turned 24, and odds are very good that Cano will be one of the top two or three 2B in the league next year, even if his value is batting average dependent.

One thing that I should note is that not all batted ball types are created equal. All these balls can be tracked as one of four types, but there's still plenty of variability in the types of line drives, fly balls, and grounders that these numbers will not capture. So this is imprecise and should be taken as such.

Let's see how Cano's batted ball types break down as percentages compared to MLB.

Here's a graphical representation of those numbers.

Cano hits a higher percentage of ground balls and line drives, and hits fewer popups and fly balls. Since ground balls and line drives are hits a higher percentage of the time, this is another positive indicator that he has a skill set conducive to hitting for average. If Cano starts to hit more fly balls, it will likely come at the expense of his batting average. However, the increased power that would probably result could make up for that.

One other thing I wanted to look at with Cano was the disparity between his performance at home and on the road. So far in his career, he's hit .349/.371/.529 on the road, and .283/.307/.443 at home.

Without looking at any data, I've assumed that it was Cano either pressing to impress the hometown fans or a change in his approach with the short porch in RF, or some combination of the two. Let's see if the data has enough information to quantify either of those.

Tackling approach first, here's one set of numbers.

Cano strikes out more frequently at home. This could mean he's aiming for the fences more frequently. He hits HRs at a slightly better rate at home, but loses a lot of doubles.

Now, let's look at the pitches Cano's seen at home vs. on the road. I've also added the results of the first pitches of his AB (either 1-0, or 0-1). If he is overanxious at home, I'd expect him to start down 0-1 in the count more frequently there.

So at home, Cano sees 3.35 pitches per plate appearance. On the road, it's 3.21. So he seems to be more patient at home. He does fall behind in the count more often at home, although that seems to be because he is more willing to take a first pitch strike.

Lastly, let's see if his batted ball distribution is different at home.

And the numbers above graphed:

Cano hits a higher percentage of fly balls at home. I wonder if this means he's trying to hit HRs? It does at least partially explain the lower average. I'd have to imagine that this will correct itself at some point. Hopefully in 2007.

I really enjoy watching Cano play. He just seems like such a natural hitter. His only weakness right now is his seeming unwillingness to walk, but if he can hit .320 or so and his power develops along a typical career path, he's going to be an asset for years, even if the walks never come. And as with any young player, there's always the possibility for more. Cano's already defied a lot of doubters and made a couple of quantum leaps in his development over the last few seasons. Who's to say he's done improving?

How good is Cano? Ask yourself what 2b you'd trade him for right now. Ignoring contracts, the only one I'd probably even consider is Chase Utley.

Looking Ahead to 2007: The Backup Catcher Candidates

2007-02-09T09:30:00.000-05:00

I'm having a rough week at work, which you may have noticed from my meager posting, but I wanted to at least get my 2007 player previews started. So, I figured I could squeeze in a quick look at the exciting trio of backup catchers the Yankees are bringing to spring training with an eye on the backup role to Jorge Posada. The three candidates whom it seems will be fighting out are Raul Chavez, Wil Nieves, and Todd Pratt.

Like last year, I'm going to run throught the various projection systems for each of these guys. In this case, we'll be looking at their CHONE projections , their Marcel projections, their ZiPS projections, and their PECOTA projections.

First up, there's Raul Chavez. Chavez will 34 in 2007, and brings a career line of .212/.253/.284 to the battle. How does he project in 2007? I'm sure it's not very good, but we'll take a look anyway.

Next up is Wil Nieves, the bounty for Bret Prinz a couple of years ago. Nieves isn't particularly young at 29, and is pretty much a singles hitter with very little plate discipline.

Next up is non-roster invite Todd Pratt. At one time, Pratt was a really good backup catcher. He's now 40. Would you believe he's older than John Flaherty?

I calculated the projected batting runs using linear weights compared to average, and position-adjusted for catchers. I removed PECOTA from the charts so I don't get sued.

Remember Kelly Stinnett and how much he sucked? Raul Chavez is worse.

Based on projected playing time, Pratt's about a half-win better than Nieves and a full win better than Chavez. Of course, this ignores defense. Here's how their defense rates over the last five seasons.

Joe Torre is likely to take Pratt due to his experience. The numbers say it would end up being the smart move. Of course, Tessio thought he was making the smart move too.

Hartford Courant: Igawa Off To Early Start

2007-02-08T07:46:00.000-05:00

Kei Igawa has already started his first spring training with the Yankees.

Igawa, who agreed to a five-year, $20 million contract in December, has been throwing on flat ground at the Yankees' minor league complex in Tampa, Fla.

"He looks like he is going to be a real good pitcher," Yankees vice president Billy Connors said Wednesday after Igawa's second workout. "He throws a heavy ball. He should be very good."

Spring training is coming...

MSG: Posada focused on season, not extension

2007-02-06T08:38:00.000-05:00

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Jorge Posada is focused on the season as he heads into the final year of his contract with the New York Yankees.

Posada will make $12 million in 2007, the final season of a deal paying him $59 million over six years. The 35-year-old catcher says he's leaving his contract situation up to his agents, Sam and Seth Levinson, and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.

"Obviously I have one more year left, and a lot can happen," Posada said Monday after a pre-spring training workout. "We'll see. It's up to them. That will take care of itself. I'm concentrating on what I have to do."

I'm going to look at Posada in more depth when I start my 2007 player previews. He's been a big part of the Yankees' success over the last decade, and he will not be easy to replace. At this point, I think I'd extend him for a year or two if I were the Yankees, as there's very little available in free agency and any catching prospects on the farm are a few years away. He's at a scary age for a catcher, but he rebounded nicely from a down 2005 to have a solid 2006. I'd like to think the wear and tear he avoided in his early 20s will let him last a little longer, but who knows?

Welcome to sports hell

2007-02-05T03:06:00.000-05:00

With the Super Bowl over, sports in America are pretty much dead for a month. Pitchers and catcher report in a couple of weeks, but that's not really exciting. There's the NBA and NCAA Basketball, but the games in February are meaningless for all but a few teams, for whom they are borderline meaningless. If Tiger plays in a PGA event, that's interesting -- until he fails to win -- but then, golf is still a niche sport.

Bleh. Until exhibition games start, and "March Madness" starts in the NCAAs, sports is gonna suck for a little while.

Last night's Super Bowl outcome did make me think of something: Alex Rodriguez. The media has played up the "A-Rod is a choker" angle so much for the past three seasons that it's become somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. He was a fine clutch and postseason performer before he came to NY, he was fine in the postseason in 2004, very good in the clutch in 2005, and then... well, he had struggles. But the storyline is that he's ALWAYS struggled, when it's just not true.

So it has been for Peyton Manning. He's been the best quarterback in the NFL for years, but writers love to worship at the altar of Brady, because he had the rings, and the Patriots beat up on the Colts. Manning is A-Rod, Brady is Jeter. Though to be fair, Brady is a lot closer in ability to Manning than Jeter is to A-Rod, but in both cases, the media has considered the wrong one to be "more valuable".

You've heard for years that Manning "can't" win the big game, that he didn't have what it takes, etc., etc. You've heard that about Rodriguez, too. Well, in the AFC Championship game, after a tough start, Manning was brilliant when the team needed him the most, and carried them to the Super Bowl. Again last night, he was awful on the first possession, then spectacular the rest of the game, bringing the team back from an 8 point deficit to win the title.

Manning didn't suddenly become clutch sometime in the second quarter of the AFC Championship. He didn't suddenly become capable of doing all these things that people said he couldn't do for years. He was capable of doing these things all along. He just didn't do them until 2006.

What you'll hear now is how Manning has proven himself to be a big-game quarterback. What you won't hear ANYONE say is that they were wrong all along. Because they were.

You'll see analysts -- professional and amateur -- use results to support the opinions they had before the fact, a confirmation that they were right on the mark. But you won't see them use results like last night as a confirmation that they were wrong to begin with. Which is, I guess, human nature. But it's still stupid, and wrong.

Last night's title and MVP for Peyton Manning didn't prove he's a clutch performer. The 2005 and 2006 ALDS's didn't prove A-Rod is an unclutch performer. They're just samples of data, surrounded by noise. Manning's ring does, however, prove one thing: he's capable of coming through in the biggest situations, he does have what it takes. And everyone who said he didn't was wrong.

It's reasonable to think that eventually A-Rod will get his ring, though he might not. It's probable that, given how many more opportunities he's likely to get with the Yankees, that he'll have a HUGE postseason series that will be impossible to dismiss, even if it doesn't ultimately end up with a championship. But neither of those things will change who A-Rod is and what he's capable of. A man can't win a championship by himself.

Be fair to A-Rod. It's fine to say what he has and hasn't done, but if you're going to make pronouncements about what he's capable of, be man enough to admit you were wrong all along when he proves it.

#1

2007-02-01T15:19:00.000-05:00

Phil Hughes, 20, RHP
Previously Ranked: 1^st prior to 2006, 9^th prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 1^st, Baseball America 1^st, John Sickels 1^st(A)

Physical Ability: Phil Hughes has the ideal pitcher’s build. He stands 6’5’’ and weighs in at about 220 pounds. A lot of that weight is in his lower body, allowing him to get good drive on his pitches. Hughes currently works off of 4 pitches: 2 seam fastball, 4 seam fastball, curveball, and change-up. While the slider was his best pitch as an amateur, he has all but abandoned it in the professional ranks, though he will toss one in from time to time. While Hughes’ curveball isn’t the 12-to-6 most commonly associated with big time pitching prospects, he has good movement on it as it goes 11-to-5. What sets the curveball apart is his impeccable control and command of the pitch. His control and command helps all of his pitches to be graded higher. Hughes utilizes the curveball for strikeouts. He also uses his 92-95 MPH 4 seam fastball for that purpose. When he wants to get a quick out or induce a groundball, Hughes will toss in a 2-seam fastball, which typically gets clocked at 89-93MPH. Finally, Hughes’ changeup is used to keep batters honest, but in time may become a strikeout pitch as well. Outside of his repertoire, Hughes also does a good job of controlling the running game and fielding his position. In the past he has been placed on the disabled list with soreness, but that has been attributed more to Yankee organizational methodology than actual worrisome physical trouble. Still, as a pitching prospect, this should be noted.

What Happened in ’06: Hughes began the year in Tampa, and as was expected, made quick work of the league. Advancing to Trenton, he struggled at first, but once he made the adjustment he dominated the league with ease. He dominated left and right-handed batters. He dominated at home and on the road. He dominated every regularly updated “Hot Prospect” chart. He dominated the eventual champion Portland Sea Dogs in his lone playoff start. What happened in 2006 was that Phil Hughes simply ravaged his opponents.

What Lies Ahead: Hughes is somewhat of a boring prospect to write about. I said this last year and I will say it again: statistically, he has no flaws. There is nothing about his performance record that you can point to and say “You know, if Phil is going to be a good major league pitcher, or even pitch well next year, he really needs to work on X”. The only thing you can wonder about is how well he is going to hold up to a major league workload. The Yankees had an innings cap of 150 for Hughes last year (he pitched 152, playoffs included) and have the set the cap for this year at 180. This is interesting to me because it has been speculated in the past that amount of innings pitched in a year should not be as closely watched as changes in workload from year to year. If that is the case, Hughes’ jump from 86.1 innings to 152 innings between 2005 and 2006, may be reason for caution. However, given that the Yankees seem to have Phil’s future (Phil...phiiiiiiiiiiiiiil of the future) as organizational priority number 1, I’m going to grant the benefit of the doubt on that issue. I expect him to begin 2007 pitching extremely short outings for Scranton as the first 2-3 months of the season are used as an extremely long spring training for him. Then, when the summer heats up, the Messiah will arrive and post an ERA of 3.89 in 100 innings with 97 hits allowed, 32 walks, 7 home runs allowed, and 99 strikeouts. In the postseason He will be named the LCS and World Series MVP as He pitches 35 scoreless innings with 57 strikeouts and the Yankees win their 27^th championship.

Grade: Grade-wise, the only things holding Phil back are the whispers of workload concern in the back of my head as well as my wariness about any prospect being an A+ (i.e. no chance of missing). A

Jose Tabata #2

Newsday - Mussina: Put-up time for Pavano

2007-02-01T08:40:00.000-05:00

"I think he has to be there," Mussina said of Pavano, when asked what the perennially injured righthander had to do to win back his teammates. "I think he has to pitch. I think he has to do his job. Just kind of be the new guy again, is the best way to put it.

"He's been away a long time. He's come and gone for periods of time, and he's been real close, and everyone thought he was coming back and he didn't. So he's got to earn some trust from some players again, from a coaching staff and a manager and an organization.

"But if he can do it, we know he can pitch, and we know he can get people out. If he gets over those other hurdles, he'll be an asset."

Until I see Carl Pavano pitching in a regular season game for the Yankees, I have to assume he's a non-factor. He's been a bust so far, which isn't exactly news, but you have to assume that a "healthy" Pavano will be better than a combination of Darrell Rasner and Jeff Karstens as the fifth starter this year? How much better? Let's see if we can figure that out.

Using ZiPS projections, Pavano projects to a 4.64 ERA in 2007. Karstens projects to 5.25 and Rasner to 5.12. Over 100 innings, that's 52 runs allowed for Pavano, 58 runs for Karstens, and 57 runs for Rasner. So for every 100 innings Pavano can pitch, it's a projected 5-6 run upgrade. If Pavano can pitch 200 innings as a fifth starter, the Yankees are about a win better.

I'll believe it when I see it. If Pavano shows he's healthy and reasonably effective, the Yankees could also ship him mid-season for a similar upgrade at a position of need, be it backup catcher, or first base, or whatever.

Boston Herald: Yankees ask Cabrera to skip Caribbean World Series

2007-01-31T09:26:00.000-05:00

Yankees outfielder Melky Cabrera will skip the Caribbean World Series at the team’s request so he can rest up for next season.
Cabrera played the last part of the winter league season in the Dominican Republic and participated in the playoffs, said Mark Newman, the Yankees’ senior vice president of baseball operations.
”We’ve asked that he shut it down at this point. It’s been a long year for him,” Newman said Tuesday on a conference call to discuss the team’s top prospects. ”We thought he needed some rest.”

Rest? When I was Cabrera's age I didn't need any rest.

It's a slow news time, with what looks to be a set roster and spring training slowly approaching while we all eagerly await Fabian's Wayne Franklin writeup.

I'll probably start my player previews over the next week or so. A reader sent me a question that might be good topic for discussion so I'm going to throw it out there and invite everyone to provide their opinions if they feel like it.

As you know, many sports teams are owned by corporations – AOL owns the Braves, News Corp owns the Dodgers, Cablevision owns the Lakers… Well, if they’re going to go to the trouble of owning them, why not bank on them? Instead of naming the team after the city, name them after the corporation. Or even if they are personally owned, they could sell the name of the team to the corporation. For example, instead of the Boston Red Sox there would be the Tampax Red Sox… What do you think?

Tampax Red Sox. Sounds good to me.

NJ.com - Torre wants to give Bernie a chance

2007-01-29T09:22:00.000-05:00

Yankees manager Joe Torre has told GM Brian Cashman that he'd like to give Bernie Williams a shot at making the team, according to a source close to Williams.

However, the Yankees' 40-man roster is full, and there appears little opportunity for Williams to contribute.

What are the odds that if Bernie gets a shot at making the team from Joe Torre, he doesn't make it? Please Brian Cashman, hold firm.

In some non-Yankee news, since a lot of Yankee fans seem to be overly concerned about Boston possibly picking up Todd Helton, I ran some more Diamond Mind simulations, swapping out Todd Helton for Mike Lowell and moving Kevin Youkilis to third base. This ended up being about a fairly decent offensive upgrade, but a five run or so defensive downgrade, and nets them out out as one whole win better in 2007. These are over 100 trials with the latest rosters using CHONE.

DIV and WC are division titles and wild cards over 100 trials respectively. StD W, RF, and RA are the ranges for wins, runs for, and runs against within one standard deviation of the mean.

This doesn't mean Helton can't outperform his projections with better health this season, or that Lowell doesn't underperform his which makes the difference more stark, but any Yankee fan panicking about Boston getting Helton is overreacting.

Update: Out of curiosity I decided to look at the Helton/Lowell swap numerically. Using their PECOTA offensive projections, here's how Lowell, Helton, and Youkilis project for 2007, in terms of batting runs above average by linear weights (not position adjusted).

Helton 33
Lowell 7
Youkilis 23

We have to park-adjust the batting runs accordingly. For Colorado the 3 year weighted average for runs is 1.24, for Fenway it's 1.04. So adjusting these we get these new values.

Helton 26
Lowell 7
Youkilis 22

Defensively, here's how they project using a weighted average of their zone ratings plus aging/regression.

Helton 1
Lowell 4
Youkilis -1 (at either 1B or 3B)

So combination 1 of Lowell at 3B and Youkilis at 1B combines for 29 runs of offense and 3 runs of defense above average, a total of +32.

Combination 2 of Youkilis at 3B and Helton at 1B gives 48 runs of offense and 0 runs of defense, or a total of +48.

So it's a 16 run net upgrade overall, or a win and a half. Not much different than the simulations.

More on Clutchness

2007-01-26T07:38:00.000-05:00

I still don't know if clutchness is a real word, but anyway...

By request, I ran the 2004-2006 clutch numbers that I ran for Alex Rodriguez a few days ago for the motley crew of Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and some person named Ortiz David or something. I did see the requests for Mauer, Morneau, and Vlad Guerrero and will try and get to them next week.

I won't clutter up the blog with all the numbers, so you can go to this Google Spreadsheet link for the gory details. I'm just going to post the wOBA in the various situations I'm looking at here.

First up, let's look at the splits for these guys when their team is trailing, tied, or leading, compared to their base wOBA. Remember, wOBA scales to OBP. I split out 2006 for Jeter only due to time constraints.

Albert Pujols is clutch-defined. According to the data I'm looking at, Pujols had 629 plate appearances over the last three seasons where his team was trailing and hit .366/.429/.698 for an OPS of 1.127 and a wOBA of .466.

It's interesting to see that Jeter and Ortiz both do better when their team is trailing, which lends credence to their clutch reputations.

And here's how they do by inning.

Lastly, let's look at the situations that I'm defining as the plate appearances where their team needs them the most, tied or trailing by 1-3 runs in the 7th inning or later(including extra innings).

Hideki's more clutch than Ortiz! Not really, wOBA doesn't include intentional walks or changes in win expectancy. It assumes average run values of all the offensive events. It's pretty obvious that Ortiz's production has helped his team win more games than they would have been expected to. You can also certainly quibble with the criteria that I've defined as clutch.

Anyway, I don't know that any of this is predictive. Research says it's probably not, but the fact is that by the time the players we would be trying to predict accrued enough plate appearances in these situations to show that it can be predicted, it'd be too late to make much use of it.

This all gets back to the clutch hitter, and whether or not he exists. He may, or he may not, but clutch situations definitely exist. You can look at the great work done by Tango Tiger on Leverage to see that.

#2

2007-01-24T16:28:00.000-05:00

Jose Tabata, 18, RF
Previously Ranked: 4^th prior to 2006
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 2^nd, Baseball America 2^nd, John Sickels 2^nd(B+)

Physical Ability: Jose Tabata is an extremely young, extremely gifted teenager in the Yankee farm system. He possesses solid or better tools across the board and it is this broad base of tools that make him an exciting prospect. While his American debut gave the impression that he was/is a speedster, Tabata has lost some of that ability due to weight gain. How well he is able to keep his weight under control may be the determining factor in how far he goes as a big leaguer. At present, Tabata still possesses solid speed and is surprisingly adept at picking his spots on the bases. Unlike many young hitters, Tabata does not struggle to get on base as he both hits for average and controls the strike zone. Tabata is a good hitter for average due to level stroke and consistently getting good wood on the ball. While he projects to hit for power in the 30+ home run range, Tabata has only tapped into a bit of that raw ability. Defensively, Tabata has played all three OF positions to this point of his career. He projects as a solid or better defender in either OF corner.

What Happened in ’06: Tabata began the year playing for the Charleston Riverdogs of the South Atlantic League. Through the July 4^th weekend his performance was excellent as he had posted an OPS of .824 while making consistent adjustments and improvements at the plate. It was around this time where he began to suffer through a series of hand injuries that would derail his season. The Yankees tried a DL stay as well as some good old fashioned time off, but neither was effective in curing what ailed their top offensive prospect. Tabata would cap his year by playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. While he was initially a bench player, Tabata’s offensive performance forced his coaching staff’s hand and he took hold of a starting spot. Unfortunately, it was then that his was derailed by a wrist injury.

What Lies Ahead: Normally, I’m afraid of what going to the Florida State League will do to an offensive prospect’s numbers, but in the case of Tabata, I’m fairly confident he will have a representative season. He does not put the ball in the air that much and did a good job dealing with an adverse offensive environment in Charleston, so that bodes well.

Grade: At the moment, there are two flaws in Tabata’s prospect profile. The first is his weight, the second is injury history. In regards to the former, Tabata came into the year overweight and while he worked his way into shape as the season progressed he was still wider than you’d like a top hitting prospect to be at his age. So, that’s going to be a concern until it can be established that last offseason’s weight gain was a fluke. His build is also going to be a contributor to this problem as well as inflating the issue. The second concern is injuries. Over the past few months, Tabata has battled some hand and wrist issues, which are particularly troublesome. They have a tendency to sap power and it appears that that may have occurred in Tabata’s case. The Yankees are once again claiming Tabata is fully recovered, so hopefully that is a thing of the past. If you’re looking for or find any other legitimate flaws, you’re probably looking too hard. If things work out, Jose has a chance to be a Kevin Mitchell/Bobby Abreu type and if everything goes right, he may just be Manny Ramirez. A-

Humberto Sanchez #3

NY Times: Williams Not Willing to Give Up Pinstripes

2007-01-24T07:35:00.000-05:00

There is no spot on the Yankees’ roster for Bernie Williams, who is uncomfortable as a free agent after 16 seasons in New York. Williams does not want to retire, yet he does not want to leave the Yankees.

Jorge Posada, who received an award at the Baseball Assistance Team dinner in Manhattan last night, said he has kept in close touch with Williams this winter. Apparently, retirement is not an option.

“He’s not even talking about that,” Posada said. “He said he wants to play one more year.”

Posada said Williams, 38, has told him that other teams have called. But with the start of spring training less than three weeks away, Williams has resisted.

I feel a little for Bernie here. It can't be easy to be facing the end of your career. If I were him, I'd want to keep playing forever. It's possible that he could be an asset in an extremely limited role that keeps him off the field, but with the current personnel on the team it'd be a waste of a roster spot, and with Joe Torre around, it's unlikely his role would be limited enough to not hurt the team somewhat. It's also a potential harm to Melky Cabrera's development.

If Bernie is really done as a Yankee, it closes another small part of what's been a great time to be a Yankee fan. Try not to just think of the guy whose knee injury in 2003 brought a great career to a swifter than expected decline. Also think of the guy who put up OPS+s of 130,148,159, 157, and 136 from ages 27-31 while helping the Yankees win four World Series in five seasons.

I'll get to the rest of the clutchness stuff over the next few days. I'll run the numbers for 2004-2006 for David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui, and Derek Jeter. If you have anyone else in mind, post it in the comments.

Alex Rodriguez and His Clutchness (or Lack Thereof)

2007-01-23T08:21:00.000-05:00

For as long as Alex Rodriguez has been and will be a Yankee, the question about his "clutchness" or lack thereof has been coming up and will likely keep coming up. Thanks to the great book Baseball Hacks, and the wonderful organization Retrosheet.org, I've been able to create a play by play database on my computer that can let me look at data that was previously almost impossible to look at in any reasonable time frame.

Today I'm going to use that data to try and break down Alex Rodriguez's performance as a Yankee in certain situations. As a caveat, we're dealing with very small sample sizes in many of these situations, so keep that in mind.

The first myth I'd like to deal with is that Rodriguez's production always comes when the Yankees are already ahead. Thanks to the play by play data, that's easy enough to verify. This chart breaks down Rodriguez's production based on the deficit the Yankees were facing at the time of his plate appearances. A negative deficit indicates the Yankees were trailing by that many runs, a positive number means they were leading by that many. In addition to the well-known stats like AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS, I've added Weighted On Base Average (wOBA), which does a better job of weighing the components of an offensive player's performances relative to their value in run-scoring. wOBA was devised by Tango Tiger, Andy Dolphin, and MGL in The Book, and scales very closely to OBP, ie: .300 is not so good, .400 is pretty good, .500 is outstanding. (click on any of the images below to enlarge them)

So Rodriguez has batted 730 times with the Yankees trailing, and he's hit .301/.395/.553 for a wOBA of .408. He's batted 776 times with the Yankees ahead and has hit .321/.402/.562 with a wOBA of .415. That's a slight difference, but hardly the chasm the media and many fans would have you believe exists.

But what about the myth that Rodriguez does all his damage early in the game, when it supposedly doesn't count?

Here's a graphical representation of that chart, plotting Rodriguez's wOBA by inning.

There's a bit more of a split here, as he's hit .303/.403/.560 for a wOBA of .414 in innings 1-6, and .297/.377/.536 for a wOBA of .392, but again not nearly the split that you'd think given his coverage in the press. You can use wOBA to estimate a run value by multiplying it by the plate appearances and dividing it by 1.15. To figure out the difference in the performance we can subtract one wOBA from the other and do the same thing.

So (.414-.392)/1.15 x 600 PA gives you a difference of about 11 runs over a full season.

This table just looks at the sum of his production by both inning and deficit. The sample sizes here are again way too small, so this is really just for information.

Let's take just the plate appearances where the Yankees are trailing by 3 runs or fewer or are tied, from the seventh inning on.

Now we can see a pretty severe falloff, although we're dealing with just 204 plate appearances.

In summary, these numbers tell me that Rodriguez's reputation of failing in the clutch is a little unfair. The last table is certainly valid evidence that he has not been as good in the specific situations where the Yankees needed him most, but the other stuff about how he does all his damage in blowouts and early in games is pretty overblown.

I've uploaded this data to a Google Spreadsheet for anyone who wants it.

These don't include playoff games, which I hope to eventually incorporate into my play-by-play database. Next time, I'm going to look at the same splits for Derek Jeter, whose clutch reputation is the polar opposite of Rodriguez's.

Update: By request, here are Rodriguez's splits by deficit broken down into 2004, 2005, and 2006. I cut off the deficits that were not present in all three seasons for comparison's sake, but they were all very small samples. The Google
spreadsheet has also been updated for the visually challenged.

Another Update Over at Was Watching a reader noticed my numbers were off for the season data. I re-checked and he was right, so here are the revised numbers for 2004, 2005, and 2006.

Journal News: Cashman glad he's not Boss' puppet anymore

2007-01-22T09:32:00.000-05:00

In the 14 months since he wrestled power away from George Steinbrenner's cabal of advisors in Florida, Cashman has reformatted the Yankees into an organization determined to develop star players rather than pay a premium for them. Along with significant roster changes, Cashman has made a series of personnel moves within the baseball operations department, firing several longtime scouts and coaches and reassigning others.

I think a lot of us are glad that Cashman's not the Boss's puppet anymore.

It's hard to evaluate Cashman as a GM, because it's tough to know which deals are his and which ones are Tampa's. I think he tends to get a pass on some bad moves that are his doing (like Pavano, the Mike Lowell trade, etc.) because of that. I do like the direction he's taking the team in over the last two season though, and think it bodes well for the future.

#3

2007-01-19T14:51:00.000-05:00

Humberto Sanchez, 23, RHP
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Baseball America N/A, Pinstripes Plus N/A, John Sickels 3rd (B+)

Physical Ability: Humberto is…a big RHP who…pitches off his low to mid 90s fastball. In addition to the being big, right-handed, and throwing hard, Humberto also displays the other Yankee pitching prospect trait of throwing a heavy fastball. The fastball is typically complemented by a slider and change. The change isn’t too great at the moment, but the slider has shown potential. When he’s able to snap it off correctly, he can go to it for the strikeout. Humberto is going to need to improve the control and command of both those pitches because neither is overwhelming to the point that he can miss with them and get away with it. As far as battling left-handed batters, as long as Sanchez holds up physically he has enough stuff to not have to worry too much about platoon issues, but his health is a major question at this point.

What Happened in ’06: Sanchez began the year pitching for AA Erie in the Tigers organization and got off to a quick start. Considering he was repeating the level that was somewhat to be expected. The key to his success seemed to be better command of his stuff than he had demonstrated in the past. He finished the year in AAA and struggled down the stretch as he had to deal with injuries for the umpteenth time in his young career.

What Lies Ahead: Sanchez should open 2007 at AAA Scranton. Beyond that, his role is up in the air. There have been rumors that he may be placed in the bullpen, but that has not been confirmed in any way. Whether he’s in the bullpen or in the rotation he should have ample time to ready himself for big league action as there will be numerous options for both positions. I think the Yankees start him off in the rotation, and based on how he does there, they will decide whether or not that is his final role. I can’t see them putting the ceiling of reliever, even if it is shut down reliever, on a guy that for all intents and purposes is one of their big offseason acquisitions.

Grade: Since Sanchez has only been in the organization this fall/winter, I don’t have as great a read on him as I do a lot of the other guys on this list. That said, I think his prospect status is a bit overblown. Yes, he’s a big guy with a big fastball, but his fastball is not THAT big. Yes, his slider has been a great pitch at times, but those times haven’t been frequent enough. Yes, he showed great progress in his performance last year, but he still had his playing time cut short to injury. As you can tell, I see a lot of red flags with Sanchez. When he was in the Futures Game I remember thinking “how did this guy get here”. However, on the strength of the opinion that others have of him, I am going to concede that there may be something I’m missing. I’m very interested to see how he progresses this year. B

Joba Chamberlain #4

#4

2007-01-18T16:07:00.000-05:00

Joba Chamberlain, 21, RHP
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 11th, Baseball America 4th, John Sickels 4th (B)

Physical Ability: Joba Chamberlain is yet another big bodied Yankee hurler. Standing 6’3’’ and listed at 225, Joba has actually been considered too big at times. As you would hope with a guy his size, Joba also possesses a terrific fastball. Joba The Hutt typically pitches in the mid 90s with his fastball and can even get it up to the high 90s at times. In addition to throwing his fastball very hard, Joba has uncanny control and command of the pitch. His repertoire is rounded out with a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. At the moment, none of these pitches is anything to write home about. Fortunately, they aren’t terrible either. The slider has shown the most promise thus far. It will be interesting to see whether the Yankees let him be with that as his breaking ball of choice or try and push him towards the curveball as is the organizational preference. As I’ve alluded to, Chamberlain has struggled with his weight at times. Some feel that his struggles with a knee injury during college can be attributed to carrying too much weight. It remains to be seen how much of a problem that, as well as his triceps tendonitis of the past year, will be in the pros.

What Happened in '06: Like just about every other Yankee draft pick in 2006, Chamberlain was an early favorite to go in the first round. In fact, he was projected in the top 10. However, due to the aforementioned injury concerns, which led to poor performance, Joba fell on draft day. Unlike a guy such as Ian Kennedy, Joba did not have much, if any, track record to fall back on as he had only emerged as a legitimate prospect the year prior. Fortunately for Joba he has greater physical talent than Kennedy and once he was signed and allowed to play, he made teams begin to regret their decision to pass on him. Chamberlain’s pro debut was in the resurrected Hawaiian Baseball League where he was probably the league’s best pitcher. While his control wasn’t as good as the 46:3 K:BB ratio would indicate, it was still impressive. More impressive was his command, especially on the occasions where he would fall behind batters only to perfect place a pitch and get opposing hitters to turn hitter’s counts into outs.

What Lies Ahead: Chamberlain will most likely begin 2007 in Tampa. I don’t expect him to be long for Tampa. In fact, I hope/think his 2007 will look a lot like Phil Hughes’ 2006. Despite that, I think he’s further away at this point than Phil Hughes was a year ago. In terms of top pitching prospects, Joba is more Mike Pelfrey than Phil Hughes. In other words, he’s going to be able to get at least decent minor league results because he has an overpowering fastball. What will determine how quickly he can be ready is getting one of his secondary offerings, most likely the slider, to the point where he can give batters a different look. Developing those secondary pitches will help him have the means to get outs against quality left-handed batters.

Grade: While Clippard lacks stuff, Joba lacks a performance record. While Clippard has never missed a turn in the rotation (hey, more Barry Zito similarities), Joba has injury concerns. Overall, I think they’re fairly comparable pitching prospects and I’m going to err on the side of potential and “tools”. We’ll see how it turns out. Hopefully, Joba makes good on his ability and can give the Yankees some terrific years near the front of the rotation. B

Tyler Clippard #5

#5

2007-01-17T19:00:00.000-05:00

Tyler Clippard, 22, RHP
Previous Ranking: 3rd prior to 2006, 5th prior to 2005, 7th prior to 2004
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 5th, Baseball America 7th, John Sickels 5th (B)

Physical Ability: Though he has now increased his weight to about 200 pounds, by most accounts, the 6’4’’ Clippard still has a somewhat slight build. Some look at that as evidence that he may have even more filling out to do, which will lead to a further increase in his velocity. This is such a critical point because Clippard’s velocity is universally cited as the red flag of his prospect profile. As it stands, a typical Clippard fastball registers 90 on the radar gun. When he’s locked in and reaches back for something extra, he can get that up to 94. When it comes to fastball velocity, there are days when Clippard is 86-90, then there are days where he is 89-92, and finally there are the days when he just repeatedly hits 90. It all has to do with how well he’s finishing his pitches and how in-sync his motion is. In addition, to the 4-seam fastball, Clippard’s other primary pitches are the curveball and change-up. He throws a slider from time to time, but it’s not a huge part of his repertoire. Clippard’s curveball regularly comes in at 75 on the gun and has the 12-to-6 break that everyone loves to watch. In the past, he has struggled with leaving this pitch up, but did a better job of commanding it in the second half of 2006. Clippard’s change-up has never been as good as it was from June onward this past year, garnering consistent 80 MPH strikeouts.

What Happened in ’06: Clippard began the year pitching for the Trenton Thunder, and pitching terribly. In the early going, it was simply a matter of opponents being able to count on a bloop and a blast. However, as the losses piled up, it became more than that. On June 9th, Tyler Clippard hit rock bottom. His control was poor, rainy conditions did not help, and his ERA ballooned to 5.29 following a 1 inning outing. The results accumulated by the Tyler Clippard who pitched prior to and during that game were never as dominant as the results accumulated by the Tyler Clippard who pitched following June 9th. While Clippard has had hot months in the past, he has never pitched so well for so long as he did to close out last year’s regular season. His fastball was the same, his curveball was the same, but his change-up took a giant leap forward. Having the change-up as a reliable weapon made life much easier for Clippard. Instead of relying on his curveball when he needed a big pitch. He could now go to his change-up without worry, which allowed the fastball to become more of a weapon in those situations as well.

What Lies Ahead: Having successfully made the AA transition, Clippard now has to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke and repeat his success at AAA. That’s the reality of being right-handed and not having a “wow” fastball. In a rotation that will be looked at as Phil Hughes, The Injury Replacements, and some other guy, Clippard may be able to force himself to the forefront. The Yankees do not want Phil Hughes to pitch more than around 180 innings in 2007. As such the likely candidate for first call-up will be one of The Injury Replacements. If Clippard is measurably outperforming them and/or they struggle when given their shot, Clippard may be able get a roster spot and a chance in the big leagues. It’s a narrow window of opportunity, but it’s there.

Grade: Based on results, Clippard is probably about a B+ prospect, but given that there are valid concerns about how he gets his result, his grade gets knocked down a bit. It should also be noted that he is not the extreme flyballer many would have you think, but rather, a pitcher with fairly neutral batted ball tendencies. In addition, I think his potential is more than simply back of the rotation. He might pitch “backwards”, but I think if everything works out, Clippard can be a guy you slot in at the 2/3 slot on a club and sit back and watch as he gives you 200 innings of 3.8-4.1 ERA baseball. Again, that’s IF EVERYHING WORKS OUT. At the least, I think he should be able to give decent innings in a swingman role out of the bullpen. B

Jeff Marquez #6

#6

2007-01-16T22:17:00.000-05:00

Jeff Marquez, RHP, 22
Previously Ranked: 6^th prior to 2006, 14^th prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 9^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 17^th (C+)

Physical Ability: Jeff Marquez is a 6’2’’ right-hander who weighs in around 190 pounds. Marquez doesn’t have the natural downward plane of some of the taller guys in the system, but nonetheless generates tremendous sink on his 2-seam fastball. It is a pitch that typically registers in the low 90s and is complimented by a 4-seam fastball that Marquez can touch the mid 90s with. In addition to the sinking fastball, the other pitch Marquez is well known for is his change-up, which has been a plus pitch for him to this point in his career. Jeff’s primary arsenal is completed with the curveball, which is probably the pitch Jeff is working on the most at this point. Despite still needing some work, it has been a plus pitch for him on occasion.

What Happened in ’06: In 2006, things just didn’t break right for Marquez. Jeff came into the season hoping to pitch well in Tampa and get promoted to Trenton. I thought that was a reasonable enough expectation given his talent and the composition of the minor league squads at the time. Unfortunately, that did not happen. As tends to happen with groundball pitchers from time to time, Marquez was beset with bad luck in April. His BABIP was way beyond where it should have been and resultantly, so was his ERA. Then once the numbers began to make sense, Marquez was placed on the disabled list with a muscle strain. This would keep him out for the better part of 2 months. Upon returning to Tampa, Marquez continued to pitch well, but at that point it was too little too late and he would have to settle for only having a solid year at Tampa. Sent to the HBL to complete the calendar year, it seemed that Marquez would dominate, unfortunately he struggled with his command and the results were poor.

What Lies Ahead: The key for Jeff’s development will be how well he commands his fastball within the strike zone. At the moment, he’s got pretty good control, he can get the ball in the strike zone on a regular basis, but he needs to throw more quality strikes. Once he does that, the natural movement on his pitches, particularly his fastball, will further increase his already excellent groundball rate. The other development to watch with Marquez will be how quickly he picks up the curveball. It has shown flashes, but is still not dependable. If he can get the hang of it, Marquez could potentially be the proud owner of 4 plus pitches. Additionally, while he has not shown any pronounced platoon splits to this point, such a development would allow him to more easily dispatch left-handed batters. Given the logjam of pitching, especially at the upper levels, the Yankees will be able to be patient with Marquez.

Grade: Marquez is probably the prospect where my opinion is the most divergent from the mainstream. Part of this is that he is one of the guys that I just have a good gut feeling about. The other part is that I feel he profiles very well from a tools point of view. In addition, his performance has been better than his more basic numbers would indicate when accounting for the type of pitcher he is. He already strikes out a fair amount of guys, and I think he may strike out more as he develops as a pitcher, he’s got solid overall control/command, and he gets tons of grounders and pop ups. If everything works out, I think Jeff Marquez might just be Brandon Webb (you know, Chien-Ming Wang without the little voice in the back of your head whispering “where are the strikeouts?”) and for that, I’m bullish on his prospect status. B

Dellin Betances #7

#7

2007-01-15T22:58:00.000-05:00

Dellin Betances, RHP, 18
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 3^rd, Baseball America 3^rd, John Sickels 6^th (B)

Physical Ability: I guess with Christian Garcia’s injury, Betances takes the title of Yankee Minor League Pitcher With Unlimited Physical Potential, or YMLPWUPP. Betances is rail thin at 6’7’’ and 185 pounds. His tall frame allows him to throw on a downward plane, but he still gets the ball up in the zone from time to time. In addition, his build worried some scouts that he would have serious issues repeating his delivery, however to this point in his pro career he has done well at keeping himself under control. Betances’ fastball is a four seamer that comes in around 93-95 and has touched all the way up to 98. In addition, Betances has thus far proven to be a fast learner, as his change-up and curveball have been much better than expected given his amateur background.

What Happened in ’06: Months ahead of the 2006 draft, Betances was looking like a sure-fire first-rounder, but fell precipitously as the draft neared. The primary reason was his stuff supposedly taking a step back as he was reportedly throwing only high 80s on occasion and looked as though he may be far greater a project than your typical HS pitcher. This decline was coupled with an increase in bonus demands and so the Yankees were able to snap him up in the 8^th round and pay his asking price. During the 2006 GCL season, he looked very much like the guy who deserved to go in the first round. GCL batters were simply overpowered by Betances, struggling to make solid contact with anything he threw at them. While I was concerned Betances would be a high walk guy, he did not demonstrate such a problem in ’06, hopefully that will continue.

What Lies Ahead: Betances will begin 2007 as the star of the Charleston squad. Regardless of how well he does, I doubt he ever gets promoted due to the amount of pitching in the organization as well as the Yankees preference to take it slowly with first year HS pitchers. The most important thing to watch for with him should be walk totals. Given the worries about his lack of polish prior to the draft, I’m leery of taking his post-signing performance as who he suddenly is. Rather, I would expect him to struggle with his control from time to time, but still show flashes of dominance. Basically, I think when it’s all said and done his first full year in the system will be more Christan Garcia than it will be Phil Hughes.

Grade: Betances has higher flameout potential than just about everyone in the Top 10. However, his physical talent is also amongst the best in the system. While I’m not ready to disregard my concerns about him, I can’t ignore his raw talent. As such, I feel my ranking is striking a compromise. If he does better than I expect, he may well make his way to the top of the list. B-

Ian Kennedy #8

Can the Yanks March to 1000 Runs in 2007?

2007-01-15T07:50:00.000-05:00

One of the things we tried tracking last season was the 2006 Yankees and their March to 1000 runs™. Unfortunately for the Yanks, injuries ended the march before it had a chance to really get going.

Through Game 29, the Yankees were on pace to score 1022. Then came a DL stint for Gary Sheffield, and Hideki Matsui breaking his wrist on May 11. The Yankees fell to a 992 run pace the day of Matsui's injury, and from there they never really approached a legitimate shot at it, finishing at a very respectable 930 runs scored.

So what about 2007? What are the odds/chances of the Yankees scoring 1000 runs? Funny you should ask...

Sean Smith e-mailed me last week to let me know that he'd just posted his final version of his Chone projections. So I updated my Diamond Mind program and kicked off a new set of simulations. I ran these 1000 times. It's still to soon for the standings results to mean much, so I won't post them here. This was primarily to look at the Yankee offense specifically.

In 1000 seasons, the Yankees scored an average of 943 runs, and won an average of 97 games. Out of those 1000 seasons, they scored 1000 or more runs 102 times. Frankly, the whole purpose of writing about this is to bring back the pie chart, so here we are...

So assuming the CHONE projections are a reasonable baseline for the Yankees' expected performance, they have a 1 in 10 chance at it.

Part of the reason I like taking these projections and running them through Diamond Mind is it gives us an idea of the volatility of a team's performance in any single season. We can look at the average results to get an idea of the rough talent of the team, but in any given seasons things can happen to skew the results positively or negatively. To illistrate that, here's a graph of the frequencies of the different amounts of runs scored over those 1000 seasons. (Click on the pictures below this line to enlarge them)

Unsurprisingly, it's a bell-shaped curve. The Yankees' standard deviation for runs scored was 46, and 663 of their runs scored totals fell within one standard deviation of their mean 943 runs (898 - 989).

Predicting playing time is probably the most important part of making these simulations as realistic as possible. The projectors don't do it, so I try to use Diamond Mind to do it. So here's how the Yankees performed on average over those 1000 seasons, which led to their mean offensive output of 943 runs.

That should give you an idea of how I allocated playing time. I tried to be somewhat realistic here, as opposed to penciling in the best 9 players for 162 games each.

Let's compare that to the averages over just the seasons where the Yankees scored 1000 runs. Incidentally, the Yankees averaged 103 wins in those seasons.

Here's where the differences showed up.

There's no real magic formula there. They hit for a higher average, hit for more power, and drew more walks. The three players whose performance seemed to drive the offense the most in those seasons were unsurprisingly Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, and Alex Rodriguez.

So, according to CHONE the Yankees do have a chance at doing it, but of course injuries will be the key. It'll be interesting to see what the other projection systems say.

The New RLYW

2007-01-09T19:08:00.000-05:00

OK, since Blogger's not cooperating, we've set up a new temporary blog, at rlyw.blogspot.com. We're hoping to eventually have a new site up and running off Blogger completely, but for now this will be where our new posts will be located. Try not to be too intimidated by the fanciness of the new site. The comments section will work the same as it does on here.

#11

2007-01-03T22:02:00.000-05:00

Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, 20
Previously Ranked: 8^th prior to 2006, 3^rd prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 15^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels N/R

Physical Ability: Marcos Vechionacci is a 6’2’’ 170 pound 3B. While I’m fairly certain that his listed weight may be low, it’s not by much as he is still growing into his frame. When his frame fills out Vechionacci may come closer to showing his 30 HR potential. His advanced knowledge of the strike zone and swing also seem to indicate that he will be a solid hitter for average. Defensively, scouts are almost unanimous in their praise of Vechionacci’s game as he has good range, an excellent arm, and is usually consistent with his actions. For the second year in a row he was named the South Atlantic League’s best defensive 3B as well as best infield arm. As you can tell by now, the physical skills are there.

What Happened in ’06: The Yankees gave Vechionacci an ill-advised promotion to Tampa to begin the year. In addition, they also rebuilt his swing. The combination of the two was a recipe for disaster as Marcos was completely overmatched against FSL pitching. Demoted to Charleston, Vechionacci played much better. He walked more than he struck out, hit for a league average BA, and displayed better than league average power. Had he not had previous experience at the level, this season would have been much better received. Unfortunately, that is something that has to be looked at to place his “progress” in perspective.

What Lies Ahead: Vechionacci is likely ticketed for the Tampa hot corner in 2007. I would expect him to spend his entire year there and am fairly confident that he’s figured things out offensively. This means to expect a solid BA and OBP with a decent SLG. If he comes into camp noticeably larger, I reserve the right to upgrade that SLG expectation. Right now he’s struggling at driving the ball to the opposite field with authority. This may be taken care of by simple physical maturation. Given his struggles in A-ball to this point, I don’t expect him to tear the league apart to the point where the Yankees would be forced to promote him. Of course, it would be nice if that happened.

Grade: Vechionacci has been disappointing thus far. However, because he began playing professionally so young he is still right on track as far as where you want your good prospects to be at his age. In addition, while the tools, other than plate discipline, have not yet completely transitioned to skills they are on their way. Vechionacci may never make the majors. He also has a non-zero chance of being Bill Mueller. If everything works out, he might even be Scott Rolen. Taking that into account as well as his progress controlling the strike zone and showing a bit more power, I really like Vechionacci. If he has a good year, he may just head this list next year. C+

Mark Melancon #12

Trading RJ - Revisited

2007-01-02T09:54:00.000-05:00

Randy Johnson is still a Yankee, although it would seem to be just a matter of time before that's no longer true. A lot of people seem to think that it's addition by subtraction to get rid of Johnson, but I need to reiterate again that I think it is going to hurt the Yankees in 2007, especially if the rumored package of a few minor league arms is what's coming back in return.

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about Johnson's effectiveness heading into 2007. He's going to be 43. He just had back surgery, and he's had knee problems for the last several years. He also gave up a ton of runs last year, despite underlying peripherals that point to this being somewhat of a fluke.

All that being said, all the projections I've seen for Johnson have him providing 180-200 innings of above average to good quality. Focusing on only his recent season and his ERA+ of 88 is not good player evaluation. To show why, I took a look at all the pitchers who've put up an ERA+ of 90 or worse in 200 innings or more since 1945.

Here are the cumulative totals of all those players, Year 1 being the year they put up the ERA+ of worse than 90, and Year 2 being the following season.

In this chart, ERA+ is the league average ERA adjusted for the players' home park, divided by the players' ERA, then multiplied by 100. HR+ is the league average HR/Batters faced divided by the players' HR/Batters faced and multiplied by 100. BB+ is same thing, but for BB instead of HR. K+ is the pitchers' K/BF divided by the league average K/BF and multiplied by 100.

As you can see, the biggest difference between the first and second year is the HR rate. Research has shown that HR rate is at least partly a function of fly balls allowed and has some fluctuation from year to year. BB rate and K rate are pretty constant, which indicates that at least part of the poor performance may have been on factors not in the pitchers' direct control. In the interest of full disclosure, the average age of these pitchers was 28 in Year 1 and 29 in Year 2, so they had relative youth on their side, something with Johnson doesn't have.

As a group, these pitchers went from an ERA+ of 83 to an ERA+ of 95 the following season, and cut their runs allowed total by over 1/2 run per nine innings.

Now, looking at this in this way could put us in danger of selection bias, as the people who were really bad may have been culled from the Year 2 sample, which would boost that performance accordingly, as the 14000 inning shortfall may possibly indicate. Therefore, I pared the list down to people who pitched at least 200 innings in both of the seasons, and matched the innings totals so that everyone contributed to each sample equally, which will again help remove any possible selection bias (better pitchers getting more innings in year two, etc.)

So this group went from an ERA+ of 84 to an ERA+ of 100 (exactly league average), and cut their runs allowed by over 2/3 of a run per nine innings.

The point here is that basing your player evaluation on one season of ERA is not smart. Single season ERA can have a lot of fluctuation, and is a poor predictor of future performance.

Replacing Johnson with a combination of Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, etc., is probably a 2-3 win downgrade. I re-ran my simulations from last week with them substituted for Johnson and the Yankees went from allowing 809 runs a season to 833. That's based on a pretty optimistic projection for Johnson, but it's still something that needs to considered.

Now, if the Yankees do end up trading Johnson and saving a decent amount of money, it may still make sense, particularly if they can use the money or extra depth to shore up another are of weakness. Apparently a Roger Clemens return is one such option. I guess we'll just wait and see what happens, but it is imperative to me that the Yankees don't just give RJ away.

Update: Darren asked me to look at players over the age of 37. Since I don't want to give Darren the satisfaction of doing precisely what he asked, I pulled the same data above but restricted the pool of pitchers to those above the age of 35 in their season of an ERA+ of less than 90.

It seems that the bounceback effect is real, even for the older group.

Another update.

I would think that you would also have to adjust these sample sizes so they have the same innings pitched, because like you said the first time you did it, the truly bad players didn't pitch (or saw their innings significantly drop in relief) the following year.

Jeteupthemiddle is of course correct, so here's the same group of pitchers, restricted to those who threw at least 162 innings in each of the two seasons, with their innings totals matched up to have the same weight in both samples.

Once again, we see the bounceback in effect pretty clearly.

#12

2006-12-31T23:59:00.000-05:00

Mark Melancon, RHP, 21
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus N/R, Baseball America 9^th, John Sickels 13^th (C+)

Physical Ability: Mark Melancon is, by most accounts, is the leading in-house candidate to replace Mariano Rivera. This title falls on Melancon’s shoulders because of his low to mid 90s fastball and 12-to-6 curveball. Some impressive movement accompanies the impressive fastball velocity. This allows Melancon to attach any part of the strike zone. Melancon also has solid command and control of both pitches. In addition to those two standout offerings, Melancon has dabbled with a sinking fastball as well as a change-up. Neither has proven to be a quality offering at this point.

What Happened in ’06: Despite being the top-ranked draft eligible reliever prior to the opening of the college baseball season, Melancon fell to the Yankees. The reason for his draft day drop was concern about the health of his elbow. Melancon’s violent delivery did not help matters. In the end, these concerns proved to be valid as Melancon had to undergo Tommy John surgery following his exit from the Hawaiian Baseball League. Prior to going under the knife, Melancon was a late season addition for the NYPL champion Staten Island Yankees. He seemed to be working off the rust during his regular season appearances, as he was lights out during the postseason.

What Lies Ahead: Tommy John surgery is not much of a concern these days, so I’m not worried about Melancon undergoing the procedure. Furthermore, Melancon has been widely lauded for his makeup, which increases my faith in his being able to successfully complete the rehabilitation process. Melancon should be expected back for the 2008 season and depending on how well he adjusts, he may even see big league playing time that very year.

Grade: Melancon has the mixture of outstanding stuff and excellent makeup that allows the future closer talk to seem reasonable. While he may be an afterthought for this upcoming season, he figures to play a big role for the Yankee organization in 2008. C+

Austin Jackson #13

#13

2006-12-29T20:28:00.000-05:00

Austin Jackson, CF, 19
Previously Ranked: 9^th prior to 2006
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 17^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels N/R

Physical Ability: A former Division I basketball recruit, Austin Jackson is one of the best athletes in the Yankee farm system. He stands 6’1’’ and weighs 185 pounds. Despite his amateur background, some doubts were raised about Jackson’s athleticism in regards to his play in centerfield. I feel that this should have been viewed as more an issue of him learning the nuances of his position than an indictment of his physical talent. Jackson is a 4.5 tool player with power being his worst projected tool. The best-case scenario for him in that department seems to be about 20 home runs.

What Happened in ’06: Austin played the entire 2006 season with the Charleston Riverdogs of the South Atlantic League. He got off to a hot start with an April OPS of .824 and was mediocre at best for the rest of the year. However, that hot start as well as his physical talent was enough for him to be selected to the league’s All Star Game. With 2006 being the first year that Jackson would focus solely on baseball, I expected him to struggle at the plate. With a .686 OPS on the year, it is clear that Jackson did struggle. While Jackson was adept at working the count, he struggled with making contact with good breaking balls late in the count. In addition, Jackson struggled with driving the ball consistently. Coupled with his aforementioned breaking ball issue this meant that Jackson was often in front of good breaking balls, pulling them to the SS or behind good fastballs and fisting them to the opposite field. Both situations made for easy outs. When Jackson did hit the ball correctly, he peppered line drives to all fields. Defensively, Jackson was rough around the edges. I’m going to chalk this up as the product of getting used to being the captain of the outfield along with some combination of Tim Battle, Jose Tabata, Estee Harris, James Cooper, Wilkins De La Rosa flanking you. That is, unlike your typical CF, Jackson had to deal with guys who could go get the ball. On the basepaths, Jackson was solid with 37 steals in 49 attempts.

What Lies Ahead: I wouldn’t mind Jackson opening the year back with Charleston, but it seems more likely that he will be with the Tampa Yankees. Either way, I am hopeful for Jackson’s chances to improve on his prospect status. Since power is not a big part of Jackson’s game at this point I don’t expect him to get as mentally ravaged by the FSL playing conditions as other hitters. Hopefully, this will lead to better statistical performance. In addition, if he can stay back on those breaking balls…he could hit .300 with 50+ steals for the year.

Grade: The Yankee farm system consists almost entirely of RHP. Amidst that ocean of pitching talent, Jackson is one of the few position players that matter. If everything works out for him, you’ve got Derek Jeter offensive performance with good defensive play in CF. If not, you may still have a 4^th or 5^th outfielder. The strikeouts in 2006 were scary, but I have a good feeling about Jackson and the way he plays the game, so hopefully he will prove me right in 2007. C+

Darrell Rasner #14

Extremely Early Projections

2006-12-29T07:28:00.000-05:00

As we sit around waiting for a Randy Johnson trade that may come as soon as next week, I thought it'd be interesting to see where everyone projects now that Barry Zito's signed. So I took the CHONE projections I've mentioned here and ran them through Diamond Mind baseball 100 times, and here are the results. It's still way to soon to draw anything super meaningful from these.

W - Wins
L - Losses
RF - Runs For
RA - Runs Against
Div - Division titles out of 100 seasons
WC - Wild cards out of 100 seasons

Hmm, interesting to see the Yankees projecting as the best team in baseball, with Randy Johnson. We'll see how things look after a Johnson trade and the rest of the filling out of the rosters around baseball. That San Francisco projection shocked the hell out of me. They may regret that Zito signing in a few years, but for now it seems to have helped them become contenders. It looks like the Mets may regret not going the extra mile on Barry next year.

Like I said, there's still a lot of flux to come with the rosters. I will be running a larger set of these with a few different projection systems in February or March to get a hopefully better idea of how things are looking as we head into the season.

Make sure you scroll down and read Fabian's take on Darrell Rasner and the link he's provided to a couple of rotation studies too.

I'd also like to wish everyone a Happy New Year. Unless you're a Red Sox fan.

Something To Think About

2006-12-29T00:41:00.000-05:00

Click the post title to read Jeff Sackman's breakdown of just how good each spot in the rotation was in 2006. Based on his conclusions as well as the ZIPS projections for 2007, the Yankees current rotation lines up as 2 Number 1s (Mussina, The Big Useless), 3 Number 2s (Wang, Hughes, Pettitte), 2 Number 3s (Sanchez and Pavano). Just an interesting thing to think about as people fret about the state of the pitching staff. In addition, Jeff's follow-up piece can be found here.

EDIT: Another take on rotation analysis

#14

2006-12-28T23:35:00.000-05:00

Darrell Rasner, RHP, 25
Previously Ranked: 20^th prior to 2006
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus N/R, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 12^th (C+)

Physical Ability: Darrell Rasner is a 6’3’’ 210 pound right-handed pitcher. Rasner arrived in the Yankee organization as a gift from Jim Bowden. Since being drafted, Rasner’s velocity has declined and he currently works around 88-90 with the fastball. Rasner is able to keep his fastball low and generate his fair share of groundballs. In addition, while his overall repertoire can be described as mediocre, Rasner has the makings of a solid curveball. Unfortunately, he rolls the pitch more often than you would like, resulting in hard hit line drives and fly ball.

What Happened in ’06: Rasner began the year with Columbus and had a pretty ERA. His peripherals indicate that he was a bit lucky in this regard, but nevertheless he was able to work in some MLB time as a result of that performance. Unfortunately, immediately after he was first called up he got injured. After his second call-up, Jeff Karstens caught fire and got the bulk of the swingman innings, limiting Rasner’s major league exposure.

What Lies Ahead: Rasner is a virtual lock to begin 2007 back in AAA. There he will serve as part of the Injured Reserve™ alongside Humberto Sanchez, Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Karstens, and Steve White. Of the sextet, Rasner seems to best combine readiness and stuff. If called upon, expecting anything more than roughly league average pitching may be wishful thinking.

Grade: Rasner does not have much of a ceiling. If everything works out, you are most likely looking at a back of the rotation starter. That may seem negative, but the positive is that he is ready to contribute that type of production right now. In addition, if an organization is looking for someone to step in and immediately give them innings, Rasner is the type of guy you offer in a trade. Rasner is a poor man with an extra penny’s Jeff Karstens. C+

Jeff Karstens #15

NJ Star Ledger: Pitch for Johnson better from Padres

2006-12-27T09:24:00.000-05:00

The San Diego Padres have made a more attractive offer for Randy Johnson than the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the Yankees will trade Johnson only if they consider it a good baseball move.

"Unless it's a deal (the Yankees) really want, there's not going to be a trade," said a baseball official familiar with the Yankees' plans, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitive nature of discussions.

The article speculates about Scott Linebrink as one of the pieces in the Padres' offer. I guess the Yankees want to carry an eight man bullpen. It also contains the outstanding news that Shea Hillenbrand is off the market.

Trading RJ

2006-12-26T12:55:00.000-05:00

According to multiple stories, the Yankees are actively discussing trading Randy Johnson to a team in the West, with the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks the major teams in the discussions.

I'd be lying if I said I was a fan of Randy Johnson. I didn't like the trade that brought him here at the time, even with the subsequent disappointing performance of Javier Vazquez. The Yankees for whatever reason traded for the 41 year old Randy Johnson while expecting the 35 year old version, and it ended up costing them a chance to sign Carlos Beltran and Jorge Posada's possible replacement in Dioner Navarro, while not helping in their quest for another World Series. Thankfully Arizona didn't want Chien-Ming Wang or Robinson Cano when they were offered, or we'd really be cursing that trade.

With all that being said, Johnson still projects to be valuable in 2007 if he's healthy. Since he'd have to pass a physical to be traded, we can assume that will be the case to at least start the season.

Johnson had an odd year last year. His component ERA was in the 3.7 range, although his actual ERA was 5.00. This can be tied directly to his splits with runners on base versus runners not on base.

With no one on, batters hit .206/.271/.324 against Johnson, good for an OPS against of .595. However, once someone was on base, .321/.363/.564 for an OPS against of .927. That's basically the difference between Tony Womack and Albert Pujols.

Johnson exhibited similar splits in 2004 and 2005.

2004
None on: .175/.215/.284 OPS .499
Runners on: .243/.294/.380 OPS .674

2005
None on: .228/.282/.371 OPS .653
Runners on: .268/.304/.466 OPS .770

It's clear Johnson's effectiveness suffers from the stretch, although never to the extend that it did in 2006.

It's not as simple as saying Johnson was "unlucky" in 2006 and that he should improve in this area in 2007, because it's very possible that the physical limitations he dealt with (back and knee issues) are the reason for the struggles. Therefore, it's fair to question the likelihood of a rebound for Johnson based on his decent peripherals. That being said, here are some of the projections for Johnson heading into 2007, using Tango Tiger's Marcels, Sean Smith's CHONE, and Dan Szymborski's ZiPS.

The AL Average starter last year put up an ERA of 4.74, so the average of the three projections would make Johnson worth 16 runs above average. No, he's not an ace any more, but he is fine as a second or third starter, especially for a team like the Yankees who project pretty comfortably to be a 900+ run offense.

Trading Johnson puts the team in the position of having to rely on at least one of Carl Pavano(snicker), Darrell Rasner, or Jeff Karstens every fifth day, at least until one of the Phil Hughes/Humberto Sanchez duo is deemed ready to pitch in the bigs. That's potentially a two win downgrade over a full season.

If the Yankees can get something that strengthens them in another area, or that builds up their minor league depth while giving them salary relief, it still probably makes sense to move Johnson. That being said, he shouldn't just be given away, because he still has some value to the Yankees.

And ignore the nonsense about Barry Zito being in play if the Yankees move Johnson. It seems to be idle speculation made out of thin air with no basis in fact. However, it could mean a Roger Clemens return for the stretch run, which would seem to fit the Yankees' new MO with short-term contracts, much moreso than a six year deal to Barry Zito would.

ESPN.com-MLB-Official: Diamondbacks, Yankees talking Unit trade

2006-12-25T18:45:00.000-05:00

I'm not a big Randy Johnson fan, no pun intended, so this excites me, no pun intended.

#15

2006-12-24T23:55:00.000-05:00

Jeff Karstens, RHP, 24
Previously Ranked: 17^th prior to 2006, 17^th prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 26^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels N/R

Physical Ability: Jeff Karstens stands 6’3’’ and weighs in at about 175 pounds. He is a gangly right-handed hurler. Most Yankee fans should be familiar with him from his time with the big league club in 2006. For a refresher, he throws a fastball, curve, change, and slider. Karstens does not throw very hard, topping out at about 90, and his repertoire amounts to the definition of mediocrity. There’s no big breaking pitch or hard diving stuff here fellas.

What Happened in ’06: Jeff began the year with the Columbus Clippers, but was clobbered at AAA. Coaches/team scouts said it wasn’t due to a lack of stuff, but rather due to a lack of confidence. Having always been a mild fan of Karstens, I believed this explanation and was cautiously optimistic about his chance to bounce back. After working with wunderkind pitching coach, Dave Eiland, Karstens destroyed the EL and along with Phil Hughes and Tyler Clippard made summer trips to Trenton disastrous for Eastern League batters. Promoted back to AAA, Karstens continued to pitch well and ended his year as a semi-regular member of the big league rotation.

What Lies Ahead: Karstens will begin 2007 back at AAA. Exactly what his role will be remains to be seen because there are a ton of arms at that level. However, if/when anything happens to a big league long man or starter, given his 2006 performance, Karstens may be the first to get the call. I don’t expect him to do as well as he did at the level during his second trial there, but definitely better than he did in his first trial. He may also have some value in teaching Tyler Clippard, as he is somewhat of a poor man’s version of Clippard.

Grade: Jeff Karstens, for all intents and purposes, is what he was in his major league trial. Not the ERA, but the stuff. He’s not going to throw anything jaw-dropping and there are going to be occasions when you wonder how he isn’t getting creamed and some of those times he will then proceed to get creamed. So, don’t expect him to be posting lots of sub 4 ERAs in his career, but do expect him to be a decent long man or rotation stop gap. Despite lacking the sexy potential futures of some of the guys behind and ahead of him on this list, Karstens places this high because he has been to the big leagues and been effective, small sample size warnings and all, and he is a safe bet to return and be mediocre. Players like him eliminate the need for your team to trade for the Shawn Chacon’s of the world, which may help them keep the Ramon Ramirez’. At the same time, he is a guy you don’t hesitate to trade if a deal comes along. C+

Brett Gardner #16

#16

2006-12-23T19:47:00.000-05:00

Brett Gardner, CF, 23
Previously Ranked: 12^th prior to 2006
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 10^th, Baseball America 10^th, John Sickels 11^th (C+)

Physical Ability: Brett Gardner is a 5’10’’ 180 pound center fielder. He has a slight, but very muscled frame. As one might expect, he does not pack much pop in his swing. What he does have is a ton of speed. Gardner uses this speed to bunt for base hits, beat out groundballs, steals tons bases, and cover lots of ground in the outfield. In other words, he’s someone who seems to know his talents very well and utilize them. Gardner has an OK arm in the outfield and though he takes the occasional awkward route, he more than makes up for it with his aforementioned speed.

What Happened in ’06: Brett began the year playing CF for the Tampa Yankees and while just about all of his prospect teammates floundered, he was able to excel and earn a promotion to the Eastern League by June. Though he posted a very good AVG/OBP/SLG line in Tampa, it was a bit misleading as his BABIP was .416. In the last 3 major league seasons, the highest BABIP posted was .401 by Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. Needless to say, expecting Gardner to continue such success would be foolhardy. This was rectified in the Eastern League where his AVG/OBP/SLG dropped considerably as his BABIP dropped to .331. Given Gardner’s speed and proclivity for hitting the ball on the ground, such a number is much more reasonable and may even undersell his ability in this area. Brett’s last stop in a whirlwind season was the Arizona Fall League where he posted a .306 BABIP and low AVG/SLG numbers given the league he was in, but good OBP thanks to tons of walks. The common trend across all three levels for Gardner was that his offensive utility was largely dependent on his batting average, which is in turn hugely affected by BABIP. This is important because the more you strike out, the higher your average on balls in play is going to have to be to post a good batting average.

What Lies Ahead: As mentioned, Gardner is going to have to consistently post good BABIP to hold his value. To improve his chances of doing that, he’s going to have cut down on his strikeouts. While his strikeouts aren’t to the point where they are a glaring weakness there is work to be done there, and it presents a delicate situation. Gardner does not strike out due to lack of plate discipline, but rather because of perhaps too much discipline. He consistently works deep counts and waits for his pitch, but may have to attack earlier in the count to avoid strikeouts and their effect on his BABIP. I think it makes the most sense for him to begin the year back at Trenton and, you know, get his OPS over .700 at the least, but it seems that he may be starting in AAA. The shining light with that is that his approach is so advanced, it may affect him less than it would another prospect in the situation of being rushed.

Grade: If everything works out for Brett Gardner, he’s the player that many think Scott Podsednik is. Defensively, he’s rounding into shape, but can make the spectacular play on a regular basis due to his physical ability. Offensively, he is the definition of pest. It’s a truly enjoyable thing to watch him fluster minor league defenses by beating out base hits and successfully stealing on pitch outs. That said, I’m very concerned that things aren’t going to work out for him and that he is what he is, which right now is a defensive substitute and a pinch-runner. Gardner displayed just about no power during the minor league season as combined between Tampa, Trenton, and the AFL he only had 31 extra base hits. Given his speed, I would expect him to have collected more just off of the fact that anything in a gap or near a gap is an extra base hit for him. Unfortunately, a huge percentage of the balls he hits do not go much beyond the infield. So, despite the fact that he’s solid or better in the 5 tools, other than power, Gardner’s limitation in that department is so great that it potentially completely handicaps him. C+

George Kontos #17

#17

2006-12-22T20:27:00.000-05:00

George Kontos, RHP, 21
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 29^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 7^th (B-)

Physical Ability: George Kontos is your prototypical current Yankee prospect. That means he’s big, 6’3’’ and 215 pounds, throws right-handed, and has a good fastball, regularly hitting anywhere from 90-94. In addition to that, and strange for a Yankee prospect given their organizational emphasis the past few years, Kontos also throws a pretty good slider. When not tossing a slider or a fastball, Kontos can be found fooling around with a curveball or a changeup. Scouts like Kontos’ stuff when he’s got consistent mechanics going. When he doesn’t do that he gives up walks and hits and is amongst the nation’s leaders in losses while playing for a good Northwestern team.

What Happened in ’06: As hinted, Kontos had a very poor college season prior to the Yankees drafting him in the 5^th round. He played well in the previous year’s summer leagues so while it would have been nice for him to do something positive with his performance, scouts were able to surmise that he would likely improve against wood bats. The 2006 New York Penn-League would validate this belief as he turned out to be arguably the league’s best pitcher. Kontos piled up the strikeouts and had about twice as many groundballs as flyballs while limiting everything else. The only identifiable performance flaw he had as a professional was trouble with left-handed batters. This is a similar situation to Tim Norton in that it is the result of a lack of depth in his arsenal. Hopefully this will improve with experience.

What Lies Ahead: George Kontos seems like a good bet for the 2007 Tampa rotation where Tim Norton will once again join him. These two are very similar pitchers in terms of build and stuff, except you replace Kontos’ slider with Norton’s splitter. So, just like Norton and almost every other pitcher, I expect a good Florida State League performance. Another similarity between he and Norton is that there is some thought to placing him in the bullpen. Hopefully, that will be a last resort.

Grade: I like both Norton and Kontos. They are guys where, to this point, it seems the Yankee scouts really did their job, as neither had college track records that screamed “draft me”. I like Kontos just a bit more than Norton for three reasons. One, and this bears watching, he had a superior groundball rate. Two, he is about 2 years younger than Norton. Three, I feel that his secondary pitch, the slider, is more consistent than Norton’s though I believe Norton’s to be more devastating. Despite being a college product, Kontos is somewhat raw and will need to be consistent mechanically in 2007. If his walks are in check, he’ll be fine, if not…we’ll see. I feel that Kontos has the ceiling of a #2/3 type of pitcher, whether that will be reached remains to be seen. Even if he does struggle in that role, he has the type of stuff that allows for an easy switch to the bullpen and so there is some safety in him as a prospect. C+

Steven White #18

NY Post: HILLENBRAND MAY SIGN ON FOR ONE YEAR

2006-12-22T10:37:00.000-05:00

If the Yankees make the right one-year offer, Shea Hillenbrand is willing to listen. Until now the Yankees and other teams believed Hillenbrand was only interested in a multi-year deal. According to a friend, depending what a one-year offer looks like, Hillenbrand may be willing to take it.

The latest development makes Hillenbrand a lot more attractive to the Yankees, who have also engaged Doug Mientkiewicz and Mark Loretta to play first base. Mientkiewicz, a lefty swinger, is only interested in a one-year deal.

Let's hope the Yankees don't make the right one-year offer. Hillenbrand stinks.

#18

2006-12-20T21:41:00.000-05:00

Steven White, RHP, 25
Previously Ranked: 19^th prior to 2006, 8^th prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 20^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels N/R

Physical Ability: Steven White is one of many big right-handed pitchers in the Yankee organization. The Baylor University product stands 6’5’’ and weighs in at 205 pounds. With his large frame comes a big fastball that regularly runs in around the low to mid 90s. While you wouldn’t call White a sinkerballer, per se, he does throw a heavy fastball. In addition to the fastball, White throws a serviceable curveball and a serviceable change-up. Neither pitch is consistent for him and both could use work, but for now they are enough to get by with.

What Happened in ’06: I criticized White prior to the season for not having lived up to his scouting reputation to that point of his career. White then essentially went out and made me look foolish, were the Yankee system not much deeper now than it was at the outset last year, his ranking would have shown as much. The first concern that White dealt with was the issue of scouts having always viewed him as an innings-eater despite his previous professional career high in innings being 117.1. This year he averaged over 6 innings a start in order to total 175.1 for the year. This total may have even been higher had he not struggled at times in AAA because unlike their other hurlers, the Yankees had no problem allowing White to go over 100 pitches. Given his age and frame, I have no issue with this strategy. The other issue White dealt with was his performance. All things considered, White performed well in 2006, striking out a decent amount of guys, keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. The one real fault in his overall game was that he still struggled with his control from time to time. By way of Yankee of interviews with Yankee officials courtesy of Pinstripes Plus, it seems this is more an issue of confidence than it is a physical problem. Corroborating that is that White’s walks in 2006 did seem to come in bunches.

What Lies Ahead: White’s Columbus ERA was not great, but some of that can be attributed to luck on balls in play (similar to how he wasn’t as good at Trenton as his ERA there would indicate). In addition, as has been established, his control DOES need to improve. The final concern in his game to be addressed would be that he struggles against left-handed batters. These struggles can be explained by the consistency he needs to develop with his secondary pitches. Lefty hitters are simply sitting fastball and ripping away, which is producing powerful results. White should begin 2007 in the Columbus rotation as one of many RHPs who could potentially be called up to help out the big league squad.

Grade: I am not a huge White fan. He has some glaring holes in his prospect status in terms of left-handed batters and walks. At the same time, thanks to a sexy fastball, if everything works out he could be a mid rotation workhorse, which I doubted much more last year than I do now. I’m not sure he has the repertoire to be able to fall back on a bullpen role like many other guys with big fastballs do, so he is somewhat of a boom or bust proposition. C+

Tim Norton #19

#19

2006-12-19T21:35:00.000-05:00

Tim Norton, RHP, 23
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 30^th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 10^th (B-)

Physical Ability: Standing 6’5’’ and weighing in at 230 pounds, Tim Norton has the ideal pitcher’s frame. His fastball is almost as impressive as that frame, regularly clocking in the low 90s and touching the mid 90s. It is a heavy sinking fastball that has to this point helped him put up big numbers against wood bats. In addition to that fastball Norton throws a splitter that is at times an average, get me over, pitch and at others a strikeout weapon. The rest of his repertoire is very underdeveloped. He has been playing baseball in cold weather states and only picked the game up in 8^th grade. He has no changeup to speak of really and from time to time he tries to mix a slider in, but it’s no good either.

What Happened in ’06: The Yankees drafted Norton in the 7^th round to little fanfare. While he had demonstrated a great fastball there were concerns about him in regards to what he possessed beyond that. Apparently for New York Penn League batters, the fastball was enough. Actually, that’s not entirely fair, as his splitter did come along a bit as well. Overall, Norton was just completely dominant. He performed well against left and right-handed batters, striking out tons of guys and keeping the ball on the ground.

What Lies Ahead: Most people would consider me to be an age relative to league Nazi. In that sense, it’s surprising that I have Norton rated as highly as I do. However, when it comes to pitching prospects, I also love strikeouts and groundballs and Norton gets lots of those. I’m also hoping that he’ll be able to move quickly through the system because it’s not as though he is old due to having been stuck in the system for some time. Finally, there’s also the matter that he shouldn’t be viewed in the light of your average 23-year-old pitcher because, as previously noted, he started late. Norton should begin 2007 in the Tampa rotation where I expect him to do very well given his stuff and performance to date.

Grade: Despite the fact that he was just drafted this year, I have a good feeling about Norton’s chances of making it to the majors. His role in the majors is still very much up in the air as he really only has one pitch at the moment. However, all it takes is one great pitch and one serviceable pitch to be at least a solid reliever. Furthermore, if the splitter comes along even more, Norton may be able to make it as a starter. As a starter his ceiling would be a middle of the rotation innings-eater. Another factor that makes Norton an appealing pitcher for me is that his one great pitch is a sinking fastball, which seems to be a great pitch for those of limited repertoire. C+

Christian Garcia #20

NY Times: Yanks May Deal Cabrera; Igawa Contract Is Close

2006-12-18T08:29:00.000-05:00

The Yankees are in discussions with the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates about a three-way deal that would send outfielder Melky Cabrera to the Braves from the Yankees, reliever Mike Gonzalez to the Yankees from the Pirates, and first baseman Adam LaRoche to the Pirates from the Braves, according to a baseball official.

The official, who was granted anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss trade possibilities publicly, also said that the Yankees were close to completing a five-year, $20 million deal with the Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa. The deal is likely to be completed tomorrow and is pending a physical

A possible Cabrera/Laroche/Gonzalez trade was a hot topic over the weekend, but seems to have cooled down quite a bit. While I'd hate to see Melky go, Gonzalez is a potentially great setup man, especially if he can recover his control to go with his mid 90s fastball.

If the Igawa deal is correct, the Yankees will have paid $46 million for 5 years. I guess he can't be worse than Carl Pavano, right?

Update: Regarding Melky and what his potential is, I noticed that his Baseball Reference Page did not have his list of similar players. However, I used their methodology to figure them out, and here's a list.

Gregg Jefferies 1989 (868)
Luis Rivas 2001 (861)
Adrian Beltre 2000 (844)
Wil Cordero (829)
Alan Trammel 1979 (823)
Harold Baines 1980 (821)
Mike Caruso 1998 (818)
Gary Sheffield 1990 (818)
Ivan Rodriguez 1993 (811)
Ozzie Guillen 1985 (804)

I guess he could end up being really good, or really bad.

Update 2: Igawa, Yanks reach 5-year deal.

The New York Yankees and Kei Igawa both played second fiddle in the posting sweepstakes. Igawa, though, got a first-rate deal it was learned on Monday, agreeing to a five-year, 20 million dollars contract with the Bronx Bombers.

The Yanks earned the right to negotiate with Igawa in late November and wasted little time getting the southpaw in pinstripes.

The deal for the 27-year-old, who was 14-9 this past season with a 2.97 ERA for the Hanshin Tigers, also includes incentives.

Negotiations were smooth thanks Igawa's agent, Arn Tellem, who has strong ties with the Yankees. Talks opened on Nov. 29 and Tellem made it clear that Igawa wanted a long-term deal.

The Yanks, who earned negotiating rights with a bid of a little more than 26 million dollars, thought highly of the Hanshin ace and both sides were determined to hammer out a deal before the 30-day negotiating deadline.

2007 Yankee Projections: CHONE

2006-12-15T08:50:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I referenced projections from the Anaheim Angels all the Way blog, where Sean Smith has developed his own projection system, called CHONE (Comprehensive Holistic Objective Numerical Estimations). Here's how the Yankees project using this system in 2007.

First up, the position players.

And the pitching...

Projection systems are far from gospel, so make of these what you will. Projections for minor leaguers are based on what they may be expected to do in the majors in 2007. So apparently Phil Hughes projects to be the fourth best Yankee pitcher already.

Also, to save some of you the trouble of typing, I agree, Mariano's projection is ridiculous. He cannot be projected, because he does not fit into the group of normal human beings.

I'll be using these projections as part of my Diamond Mind simulations as spring training approaches.

Who's On First?

2006-12-14T13:19:00.000-05:00

Right now the Yankees' roster is apparently short at a position that is traditionally the biggest offensive position in baseball. They have Andy Phillips and drafted Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft, but neither one is particularly inspiring. The Yankees have been linked to free agents Doug Mientkiewicz, Shea Hillenbrand, Eduardo Perez, and Craig Wilson. There have also been rumors about the availability of Richie Sexson in trade. One other name I haven't seen mentioned but who is available is Matt Lecroy.

None of these choices really seem all that appealing, but we can try and compare them based on how they project heading into 2007. To do this, I'm going to use the newest kid on the projection block, CHONE, by Sean Smith who runs the great sabermetric blog Anaheim Angels all the way. Smith's one of the guys who got me into zone rating for analyzing defense and does a lot of other interesting work.

So, using Smith's projections for offense and defense, here's how the people listed above compare for 2007.

In the table above, def is the player's projected defensive value in 2007. lw/600 is runs above/below average using linear weights and the projected numbers above for 600 plate appearances.

Richie Sexson's the best projected player going forward, but he'd also be the most expensive to acquire in terms of salary and talent. It's interesting to see that Andy Phillips still projects as the second best option despite his terrible season last year on offense. A lot of that is based on his solid minor league track record, but I don't have much confidence in him matching that projection after watching Phillips hit last year. While I think translating minor league numbers is useful in many cases, it has limitations and someone like Phillips may be an example of those limitations.

It seems that Doug Mientkiewicz would be the best free agent option available, as he makes up for a lackluster -7 offensive projection with +5 defense, which would net out at -2, which is close enough to average. I've been championing Craig Wilson due to his ability to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup, but overall he would project to be about as valuable as Mientkiewicz. Full season numbers in a case like this need to be tempered with the platoon difference in mind. If Wilson makes the Yankees worse overall but better in games started by left-handers, it may change what appears to be a similar full-season contribution, but I have no easy way of quantifying that.

Wilson didn't do much to impress the Yankees during his brief stint in the Bronx, and is supposedly looking for a long-term deal, so I'm not sure he's much of an option.

A little worse than the Phillips/Mientkiewicz/Wilson triumverate is the Matt Lecroy, Eduardo Perez, Josh Phelps, and Shea Hillenbrand group. None are very good defensively by the numbers. Perez and/or Phelps may have some use as lefty mashers who don't see a lot of defensive time. Lecroy is an average hitter but a pretty bad defender, and Shea Hillenbrand brings little to the table as far as I can see on either offense or defense.

So there you have it. A bunch of options, none of whom are that good. It doesn't seem that it matters much whether it's Mientkiewicz, Wilson, Phillips, Phelps or some combination of them. If only the Yankees could get Albert Pujols, who projects at +65 on offense+defense.

MLB.com - Non-tender list

2006-12-13T08:23:00.000-05:00

28 players were non-tendered yesterday according to MLB.

The 28 players who became free agents when their teams did not offer 2007 contracts before Tuesday's midnight EST deadline:

American League
Angels: Jason Bulger, RHP.
A's: Jerome Williams, RHP.
Mariners: Joel Pineiro, RHP.
Orioles: David Newman, OF; Aaron Rakers, RHP; Todd Williams, RHP.
Rangers: Mike Wood, RHP.
Rays: Damon Hollins, OF.
Royals: Scott Dohmann, RHP; Brandon Duckworth, RHP.
Tigers: Alexis Gomez, OF.
Twins: Luis Rodriguez, INF; Willie Eyre, RHP.
White Sox: Eduardo Sierra, RHP.
Yankees: Aaron Guiel, OF.

National League
Braves: Marcus Giles, 2B; Chris Reitsma, RHP.
Cardinals: Rick Ankiel, OF; Jorge Sosa, RHP.
Cubs: Jose Reyes, C; Adam Harben, RHP.
Dodgers: Toby Hall, C; Jayson Werth, OF.
Mets: Victor Zambrano, RHP.
Padres: Jon Knott, OF.
Reds: Brandon Claussen, LHP; Miguel Perez, C.
Rockies: Chin-hui Tsao, RHP

I am a bit surprised to see Aaron Guiel dumped, but it's not really a big deal. The intriguing name on there for me is Toby Hall. It seems like he'd be a perfect fit as the Yankees' backup catcher.

NY Post: YANKS, BOSOX GUN FOR BUC

2006-12-12T09:57:00.000-05:00

Is there anything the Red Sox and Yankees won't fight over? Now it's Pirates lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez.

While the Red Sox are engaged in the high stakes Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations that have to be completed by midnight Thursday, they are trying to upgrade a bullpen that needs a closer since Jonathan Papelbon is being viewed as a starter.

The Yankees, who have tried countless ways to get a dependable arm in front of Mariano Rivera since Jeff Nelson's and Mike Stanton's first tour of The Bronx, believe Gonzalez could be the guy.

Gonzalez would be a pretty good pickup if the price is right. Thanks to J for the link.

ESPN: Outfielder-first baseman signs with Yankees

2006-12-11T08:40:00.000-05:00

The New York Yankees signed Cuban prospect Juan Miranda to a four-year contract worth $2 million, the player told ESPNdeportes.com.

The deal, which includes a signing bonus of $500,000, is a major league contract and requires the Yankees to place the outfielder-first baseman on their 40-man roster.

The signing was confirmed by a Yankees official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

I've never heard of Miranda, so I can't give you much information about him besides the fact that he's 23 years old in Cuban years. I'll scour the net for more information. At the very least he fills a position of need.

Here are Miranda's career stats in the Cuban league.

Players
AB: 1138
H: 343
2B: 70
3B: 14
HR: 57
RBI: 205
BB: 197
K: 242
AVG: .301
OBP: .404
SLG: .538

#20

2006-12-10T01:19:00.000-05:00

Christian Garcia, RHP, 21
Previously Ranked: 5^th prior to 2006, 12^th prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 8^th, Baseball America 6^th, John Sickels 8^th (B-)

Physical Ability: Garcia is often lauded as the most physically talented of the Yankee farm pitchers. I was one of the persons on this bandwagon. When healthy and focused, Garcia deals a mid 90s fastball, with the potential for upper 90s, as well as an outstanding curveball. His changeup was said to have come along this season due to time he spent working on it while hurt. That last word is the key when looking at Garcia.

What Happened in ’06: Garcia began the year hurt and the initial word was that he would be out a very short period of time and would then drop into Phil Hughes’ soon to be vacated slot in the Tampa rotation. Hughes was promoted and Garcia was still nowhere to be found. The Yankees are typically very secretive on player injuries, but eventually it came out that Garcia’s slight oblique injury, something the Yankees are very cautious about with pitchers, had caused him to have a bit of arm soreness. When he finally returned to the mound, Garcia was in the GCL for a short while, where he had his version of Spring Training, and then returned to the SAL. Garcia performed much better than he had at the level in ’05, due in large part to throwing more strikes. When it was all said and done he had compiled a 4:1 GB:FB ratio as well as struck out 25.7% of the hitters he faced. Garcia was then sent to the HBL for some winter fine-tuning where he was expected to continue to dominate, but ended up giving up lots of walks and runs. Garcia ran into a bit of bad luck with his defense, as did many of the other Yankee HBL hurlers, but the BB problem would soon be identified.

What Lies Ahead: The source of Christian Garcia’s problem was fixed with elbow surgery. While Garcia was healthy for his short stint in the Yankee system in 2004, he has battled injury the past two years, with this latest one obviously being the greatest blow. While elbow surgery is not nearly the concern it was years ago, and for many prospects wouldn’t be seen as a huge blow, I consider it to be the case with Christian Garcia. Prior to the word coming out on his surgery, I had him ranked in my Top 10, which was the standard for him at the time, but I had to drop him a lot since then. The consistent injuries are concern enough, but coupled with questions about his makeup, I’m leery of his chances at making it back and fulfilling his potential. There were some in the Yankee organization that prior to this year felt Garcia would not live up to his talent due to not having the dedication to do so and he apparently did little to quell those fears this year whether it was during the rehab, the regular season, or winter league. I would not expect him to pitch in 2007, except for perhaps a return to the HBL, assuming dedication and good luck in the recovery process. We’ll see how that goes.

Grade: On a rate basis, Garcia’s 2006 was dominating. Lots of groundballs, lots of strikeouts, just the way I like it. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to compile the impressive counting numbers due to injury. Even more unfortunately, he still has makeup concerns to answer. I like Garcia’s potential. Lesser Homer Bailey like his potential. Unfortunately, there seem to be too many questions piling up about him, but based off of his physical talent, he must be kept on the list. C+

Zach McAllister #21

ESPN: Pettitte returns to Yankees with one-year deal

2006-12-08T16:22:00.000-05:00

Many thought Andy Pettitte should have never left New York. It looks like that issue has been rectified.

The left-hander and the Yankees have reached an agreement on a one-year deal with an option, sources close to the negotiations told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Friday.

Pettitte decided Wednesday that he would pitch next year rather than retire, a move that will set off negotiations with his hometown Houston Astros and the Yankees.

Good news for most Yankee fans.

Update: I've been working on my AL->NL conversion based on some feedback from readers. I took a look at all pitchers who switched leagues and compared their AL/NL totals. Using this information applied to Pettitte's ZiPS, I get the following projection for 2007.

That line compares very closely to Jose Contreras's 2006, which I ranked as the 21st most valuable season by an AL starter, and would make Pettitte worth about 1.5-2 wins better than average. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Pettitte outperform it, if he can stay healthy.

Yankees.com - Villone declines Yanks' arbitration offer

2006-12-08T08:31:00.000-05:00

Ron Villone declined the Yankees' arbitration offer Thursday, leaving the left-hander available on the free-agent market.

Villone, who returned Thursday from a 12-day vacation in Italy, spoke with his agent, Scott Boras, before making his decision. Villone has drawn interest from five or six teams, several of which may be willing to give the reliever a two-year contract.

I wouldn't mind bringing Villone back for one year, but if he can get a better offer somewhere the Yankees get a sandwich pick in the draft. That's good, but it then puts them in a position where they're going to need to get a second lefty for the pen, unless they think Sean Henn can do the job (which I think is pretty unlikely).

No news on Andy Pettitte, or the exciting hunt for a backup catcher and utility infielder. The Yankees did make some news when they selected Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft. Phelps had a solid season in AAA Toledo this year, hitting .308/.370/.532. His ZiPS projection for 2007 is .279/.338/.486. Unfortunately, Phelps is a butcher with the glove. He's played only 31 games at 1B in his career, and has a career zone rating of .744. That is actually better than Jason Giambi's .722 last year, but would equate to about a -18 over a full season. He probably doesn't replace Andy Phillips on the roster, but he could be useful as a backup DH against lefties and an occasional game at 1B. He does have a background as a catcher, although he hasn't played there in years so that's probably not a viable option for him either.

One interesting name did pop up yesterday as a potential backup catcher. Jim Leyritz is talking about making a comeback. He'll be 42 and hasn't played in six years. In this market that's probably worth $4 million.

NY Times: Yanks Appear Closer to Signing Pettitte

2006-12-07T06:23:00.000-05:00

The Yankees’ solution for their immediate future may come from their recent past. Andy Pettitte is committed to pitching again, and Roger Clemens could eventually join him for a reunion with the Yankees.

...

The Astros would like to bring back Pettitte for one year and $12 million. But the Yankees are prepared to offer him $15 million for one season and would consider making a two-year offer if Pettitte wants it. Pettitte may also prefer a one-year contract with a player option for a second year.

The agent Randy Hendricks did not elaborate on Pettitte’s thought process. But he did confirm Wednesday that Pettitte, 34, would not retire. “Andy has decided to play,” Hendricks said in an e-mail message.

I'm fully onboard with a possible Pettitte signing now. Pettitte's ZiPS projection for Houston:


Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 
Andy Pettitte             35   3.94  13  11  32  31   194.0  195   85  22   56  154

Add about a half run for the move from the NL to the AL based on research by Nate Silver, and you're looking at about 200 innings of a 4.44 ERA. The average AL starter in 2006 put up an ERA of 4.74, that would make Pettitte worth about six runs above the average starter. Add in the fact that he'd be a short-term contract of one or two years, and it seems like a perfect fit.

Update:Yankees pick Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft

Yankees selected first baseman Josh Phelps from the Orioles in Thursday's Rule 5 draft.

Phelps, 28, was signed to a minor league deal by the Orioles last month. The former Blue Jay hit .308/.370/.532 with 24 homers in 464 at-bats for Triple-A Toledo last season. He'd make sense for a team with a left-handed-hitting platoon guy at first base or DH, but the Yankees aren't there yet. Phelps' defense is pretty rough, so even though he could surprise with the bat, we're skeptical he'll get a chance to win the starting job at first base.

Phelps is a butcher defensively, but there's definitely some offensive upside in his bat. He'd probably be a good option to rest Giambi against tough lefties at the very least.

NY Post: SEXSON MIGHT BE 1ST OPTION

2006-12-06T06:52:00.000-05:00

While the Yankees met with Shea Hillenbrand's agent yesterday, another option at first base surfaced. And while Richie Sexson is an expensive alternative, it could be one for the Yankees.

The Mariners have let teams know they are looking to move Sexson and third baseman Adrian Beltre in order to reduce payroll. It's believed the Mariners are clearing money in order to go after free agent Barry Zito.

Depending on the price, Sexson would be a decent fit. He'd bring a power righty bat, although historically he doesn't show much of a career platoon split (.263/.369/.513 vs. L, .271/.344/.530). He's also not a very good defender, particularly of late.

A weighted average projection for 2007 would put him at a -6, which isn't very good, but he makes up for that pretty well with his bat. Overall he'd probably be about two wins better than someone like Craig Wilson in 2007. He won't be cheap to acquire though. I'd guess Melky Cabrera and more would have to be part of a package.

The Yankees have been fairly quiet in the winter meetings, although they're still rumored to be meeting with the agents for Andy Pettitte and Ted Lilly.

12/4/06: Odds and Ends

2006-12-04T07:18:00.000-05:00

With baseball's Winter Meetings beginning to roll, there's no shortage of rumors and speculation rampant.

According to Newsday, the Yankees are holding a roster spot open for Andy Pettitte should he decide to come back to the Bronx, even though it's not very likely. Pettitte wouldn't be a bad option, as he'd likely come with a shorter time committment than someone like Barry Zito. He was overrated during his Yankee tenure, but he's a solid pitcher, and could probably put up an ERA in the 4.00 area while giving the team innings as long as he can stay healthy, something that is occasionally a problem for him.

In good news for Yankee fans, Tanyon Sturtze has signed with Atlanta. For some reason, the Braves are guaranteeing him $750,000. I guess a bellyful of guts is a valued commodity. There are rumors that the Yankees may look to deal Kyle Farnsworth. I don't think it'd hurt the Yankees to see what he could bring back, although I don't necessarily think he has to be dealt or anything. He had his good stretches and bad stretches last season, just like he has throughout his entire career. He's a decent bet to be useful next year, although his 2005 is pretty apparently the outlier in an inconsistent career.

A reader emailed me this page of Kei Igawa's 2006 splits from Yahoo! Japan. Since I can't read Japanese real well, I ran it through the World Lingo translator. Igawa had a Defense Ratio (ERA) of 2.97 last season. He had 3 Nothing Point Victories (shutouts). He suffered 180 Hits, 17 book Base Hits (HRs), got Three Swings (Strikeouts) 194 times, he gave 49 Annie Oakleys (BB, WTF?), and also gave six dead spheres (HBP). He allowed 77 losing points (Runs) and 69 Self-reproach points (Earned Runs).

Fun with translations aside, the lefty/righty splits were interesting.

Vs. Righties
AB: 518
H: 106
HR: 7
K: 138
BB: 33
HBP: 4
AVg: .205
OBP: .258
K/PA: .25
BB/PA: .06

Vs. Lefties
AB: 251
H: 74
HR: 10
K: 56
BB: 16
HBP: 2
Avg. .295
OBP: .342
K/PA: .21
BB/PA: .06

One year's splits can have a lot of noise, and it's also probable he was facing only the better lefties in Japan, but these aren't very good splits for a team that will be facing David Ortiz 19 times this season. This also tells me he's probably primarily a changeup pitcher, and his breaking ball is not very good.

The Yankees are still in the market for a 1B, backup C, and a utility IF. They may bring Miguel Cairo back, who isn't great by any means but isn't as bad as his offensive numbers make him seem thanks to his ability to play multiple positions quite well defensively. I still think Mike Lieberthal as a backup C makes all kinds of sense. As far as 1B, I still think Craig Wilson would be the best option, because he can help balance what's become a very heavily left-handed lineup. And yeah, I know he had 105 bad AB as a Yankee. Putting stock in that over the 1848 other AB he's had in his career is not really good player evaluation.

I pray the rumors about the Yankees interest in Shea Hillenbrand aren't valid, because I don't think I can stand rooting for him, and he's just not that good. I've seen mention of Doug Mientkiewicz. I'm not a huge fan of his, although he's a decent OBP guy and a pretty good glove. He's also a lefty with no pop, and spelling his name all the time on this blog would be a royal pain in the ...

Newsday: Bullpen needs could make Bernie odd man out

2006-12-01T08:41:00.000-05:00

While Bernie Williams is eager for another season in pinstripes, a cloud of uncertainty hovers over his future.

General manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Torre both have spoken with Williams recently, but they have given him little indication whether they plan to have a spot for him on their 2007 roster, according to a person familiar with the situation.

When Torre spoke with Williams, the person said Torre echoed what he told reporters three weeks ago today: that Williams' future could be determined by whether the Yankees decide to go with an additional pitcher in the bullpen.

Bernie's been one of my favorite players, and I can't fault him for wanting to keep playing. If I was a player nearing the end of the line, they'd have to shoot me to get me off the field. All that being said, Bernie's no longer really got enough value to warrant a roster spot. It's going to be up to the Yankees to make that decision for him.

Projecting Kei Igawa

2006-11-29T16:52:00.000-05:00

With the Yankees winning the posting for Kei Igawa with what seems like an excessively high bid of $26 million, I guess that we should try to figure out what a reasonable expectation for him might be. Cliff Corcoran took an interesting look at Igawa on Bronx Banter already, and I'm going to take a shot as well.

Instead of using the method I used for Daisuke Matsuzaka, I'm going to try a different method which I found by Jim Albright.

Here are Igawa's career stats for Hanshin.

I took a weighted average of Igawa's last four seasons and then used Albright's factors to figure out the MLB translation. One thing to keep in mind is that Igawa played in a non-DH league, so I've added another adjustment, to account for the fact that he'll now be playing in a DH league.

That line looks a lot better than I expected. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

Of course, how a player puts up his numbers is often as important as the numbers themselves, particularly when they are coming from a new league with whole bunch of differences. So I dug around and found a scouting report on Igawa here.

“He uses a four-seamer in the 88-91 mph range, with that 92+ capability on occasion, and an above-average change that I had in the 78-81 mph area. His breaking ball is a solid slider he’ll throw mostly to lefthanders, though he did use it to backdoor some right-handed bats.

“It looked like he was playing with a different heater in some starts, perhaps a two-seamer or a sinker of some sorts, but his command of that pitch was very ordinary. His overall control is above average and he’ll probably need to be aware of the base on balls in America.

“He gets most of his strikeouts on the change and the fastball up in the zone, and I suspect he’s going to continue that trend wherever he ends up. His ground ball tendencies aren’t heavy enough to think he can be considered even a mild version of a ground ball pitcher, and the best hitters in the world will get more lift on his pitches.”

There's a lot more in the entry above, so you should check out the link. An NL Central scout says:

“He does make me think of (Jarrod) Washburn,” says one NL Central scout who was assigned to Matsuzaka, and later Igawa by his employers, who were expected to be serious contenders for both pitchers this offseason. “He’s got a little swagger in him, more than Matsuzaka, at least demonstrably. He’ll sit right in the 90mph range until he needs a big strikeout and than he reaches back for added gas. But, like Washburn, he throws quite a few fastballs up in the zone and if he misses with it, it gets hit, and that will be big for him in the U.S,”

Great. A high fastball pitcher who tops out in the low 90s.

After reading more about Igawa and running the numbers, I'm not as down on this signing as I was yesterday. While I think the Yankees overpaid for the rights to just talk to someone who looks like he'll be putting up a 4.00 ERA, there are benefits to spending the money on the posting fee. It doesn't count against the luxury tax as many readers here have mentioned, it won't cost the team a draft pick if he's signed, and it potentially opens up even more Yankee visiblity in Japan. If the projection above is right, he'll be about as good as the Ted Lilly/Gil Meche types, with a lot less salary cap impact, even if the total outlay is the same.

Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Yankees get rights to Igawa

2006-11-28T19:39:00.000-05:00

WFAN is reporting the Yankees had the high bid for LHP Kei Igawa. More on this as it becomes available.

Igawa was 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA last season. Given what they have, he's no better than the No. 4 starter going into spring training. The winning bid was $25 million, which seems like a lot to spend on a No. 4 starter.

I don't like this very much at all. $25 million plus a contract for a guy who projects as a #4 or #5 at best? Lame.

So, What Did I Miss?

2006-11-28T10:11:00.000-05:00

I'm back from my vacation, and of course I missed a bunch of stuff, some good, some bad. Thanks to Fabian for filling in during my absence and doing a great job with the major league stuff and his prospect reports as well.

I've been out of the loop, but here are my quick thoughts on some of the things that went down.

Yankees deal Sheffield to Tigers

On the surface, I like this move a lot. Gary Sheffield was a malcontent coming off a wrist injury and without a position on next year's team. Humberto Sanchez has tons of talent, with injuries the major concern. I'm less enthusiastic about the other two arms in the trade, as relief prospects rarely pan out. However, the Yankees got a prospect who will probably be one of their top five now, and didn't have to pay a penny towards Sheffield's $13 million deal. Seems like a good move to me.

Yanks deal Wright to O's for reliever

Another good deal. The Yankees would have owed Jaret Wright $4 million, so they basically traded Wright for a serviceable right-handed reliever in Chris Britton. Britton throws in the low 90s with a slider and changeup. The big issue with him seems to be his weight, but he gives the Yankees a little more depth in the bullpen at a time when people like Danys Baez are being paid $6 milion a year to very likely give a similar performance to someone like Britton at 1/10 the cost.

Red Sox bid $51.1 million for Matsuzaka

What. The. F...?

I wanted Matsuzaka badly, but I see no way he's going to be worth $20-25 million a season, which could end up being the final tally once the posting fee is added to his contract.

Morneau named AL MVP

Wow. This is bad. Derek Jeter wasn't necessarily a slam dunk MVP candidate by any means, but Morneau is a worse selection than about 10 other people, including two on HIS OWN TEAM! This is inexplicable to me. I guess Jeter can console himself with Jessica Biel as a consolation prize.

Yankees re-sign Mussina

I like this signing too. Moose can probably be penciled in for 375 league average or better innings for the next two seasons. With the current market for pitching, this deal seems like a good one.

The Yankees still need to fill the role of backup catcher. I was hoping they could snag Greg Zaun, although he is apparently returning to Toronto. The rest of the free agent catching group is pretty lackluster, although someone like Mike Lieberthal may be a good fit. He's been a starter for most of his career, although he's getting a bit older and banged up and may appreciate a shot at a ring as a backup if the money's right. They also still need to fill the starting 1B position, preferably with a solid right-handed bat. Shea Hillenbrand and Wes Helms don't really intrigue me, and while Craig Wilson has a pretty solid track record, his 100 disappointing Yankee AB likely mean he won't be back. I suppose a trade is a possibility, although I'd hate to see the Yankees tearing up the farm just as they're starting to build it back up to respectability.

There's likely more moves to be made in the area of the starting pitching too. If I were the Yankees, I'd talk to Roger Clemens now and see if he'd be interested in one last go. None of the other options really interests me that much.

#21

2006-11-27T00:35:00.000-05:00

Zach McAllister, RHP, 18
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus N/A, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 15^th (C+)

Physical Ability: Zach McAllister is a BIG righty with untapped physical potential that the Yankees are hoping they can harvest. Listed at 6’5’’ and 230 pounds, McAllister was only touching the low 90s at draft time. In addition his go-to secondary pitches were a rough slider and chage-up combination. However, due to being the son of a cross-checker, McAllister had the “polished” tag attached to him and the Yankees picked him up. Since draft day, McAllister’s fastball velocity can now be pegged at low 90s due to mechanical adjustments made by the Yankees as well as by emphasizing the 4-seamer with him. He is also in the process of picking up a curveball to replace his slider. Finally, McAllister’s change-up has to this point been lauded as perhaps the best pitch in his arsenal and an easy plus pitch right now.

What Happened in ’06: McAllister signed quickly and was sent to the GCL where he was most frequently seen as part of a starter tag-team duo with Dellin Betances. Drafted as a sinkerballer, McAllister was able to experience some early success despite a BB:K ratio of 9:8 through his first 19 professional innings. The reason for this is that over that same span of time he held a groundball to flyball ratio of 43:12, which is…absurdly good. The Yankees have a club policy of not altering a player’s game until 30 days into their career and it was about the conclusion of those first 19 innings that they decided to make the aforementioned modifications to McAllister’s approach and mechanics. The result was that over the final 16 innings of the season McAllister improved his BB:K ratio to 3:20 and his groundball to flyball ratio was still excellent at 23:10.

What Lies Ahead: Zach should begin the year as a member of the Low A Charleston rotation and it seems that physically, the changes that needed to be made have been made, and so what is going to be critical is continuing to work on the mental aspects of the game. This means continuing to have confidence in the 4-seam fastball as well as his changeup and working in a curveball every now and then. McAllister is also going to have to do a better job of buckling down with runners on as he was guilty of giving up “the big hit” in ’06, though the sample size was small. Another small sample size concern is that McAllister struggled through some control problems against lefty batters.

Grade: McAllister has everything I look for from a statistical perspective in a pitching prospect and I am bullish on him, as the scouting end seems to hold up with his performance record. Hopefully, his big body will allow him to more easily handle some of the fatigue that pitchers deal with in their first full season. The mental side of the game is going to be especially critical for him, and that’s where having his particular baseball background may come in handy, as it seems that pitchers of his ilk, extreme groundballers, often have to deal with adversity in the form of ugly numbers early in their career. This is thanks in part to poor minor league fields and unpolished defenders. If he can get through that ok, he should be a very interesting pitcher. C+

Angel Reyes #22

#22

2006-11-26T00:36:00.000-05:00

Angel Reyes, LHP, 19
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus N/A, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels N/R

Physical Ability: Angel Reyes is, in essence, taking the mantle of hard-throwing undersized lefty from Abel Gomez. Hopefully for the Yankees, Reyes does more with his physical talent than Abel did. Similar to Abel, Angel throws a fastball that is in the low 90s, touching the mid 90s. Also similar to Abel, his secondary stuff is a mixed bag at the moment. Other than the fastball, he utilizes a change up and a curveball, but neither of the pitches is where they need to be at the moment and can be classified as show me pitches. What sets him apart from Gomez, and hopefully will make his transition to full-season baseball easier, is that Angel has displayed pretty good control to this point in his career and does not look like a threat to have a BB:SO ratio in the area of .75, as Abel has over the last 2 seasons.

What Happened in ’06: Reyes began his 2006 campaign in the Gulf Coast League, but after demonstrating his self to be one of the most dominating pitchers in that league the Yankees moved him to Staten Island to help with their stretch run. In both leagues, Reyes displayed the ideal pitching prospect characteristics of groundballs, strikeouts, and avoiding the walk, though he did seem to battle his control when faced with left-handed batters. Being an undersized starting pitching prospect, stamina is always going to be an underlying concern, but Reyes was able to assuage some of that by improving his strikeout and groundball rates as the season went on.

What Lies Ahead: Reyes should be ticketed for Low-A Charleston in 2007. There he will attempt to replicate the success he has had to this point of his career. As previously mentioned, developing his secondary pitches will be key as full-season hitters won’t be as likely to simply be overpowered by Reyes’ fastball. In addition, if he still struggles with the consistency of those secondary offerings, given his size, don’t be surprised to see a move to the bullpen.

Grade: Generally speaking, there are going to be two types of players at the end of this list, the high-risk high-reward, or the low-risk low-reward, Reyes qualifies as a double high. If he can even get one of his secondary offerings to the point where it gives him something other than a fastball to rely on, there’s little reason he won’t have a successful SAL debut. He doesn’t have overwhelming fastball velocity, though it is very good for a lefty, but hitters are rarely able to lift the pitch. Instead, they consistently pull it on the ground to the left side of the infield for easy outs or fight it off in the air to the opposite field for more easy outs and some singles. He has the ability to move way up this list depending on how ’07 and the quest for a second pitch goes. C+

Tim Battle #23

#23

2006-11-25T01:33:00.000-05:00

Tim Battle, OF, 21
Previously Ranked: 11^th prior to 2006, 15^th prior to 2005
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus # N/A , Baseball America N/A, John Sickels N/R

Physical Ability: Tim Battle is arguably the most physically talented position player in the Yankees system, and that is primarily why he appears on this list. A CF throughout his minor league career, Tim played some on the corners during the 2006 season in deference to superior overall prospects Austin Jackson and Brett Gardner. Defensively, Battle profiles well at all positions as he has excellent range and an accurate, strong throwing arm. Offensively, Battle has good raw power and projects as an above average offensive player as long as he makes contact, which is the big question at this point. Tim also possesses excellent raw speed and is often rated the fastest or second fastest player in the system, next to Brett Gardner.

What Happened in ’06: I had very little faith in Battle’s ability to do well going forward and 2006 accurately represented that belief…to an extent. His performance in Tampa was poor as pitchers consistently fooled him and got him to strike out. When he did make contact it was poor contact and he hit the ball on the ground a lot. Upon demotion Battle regained his stroke. His walk rate went up, K rate went down and he hit the ball in the air more as well as hitting more line drives. This resulted in a .700 OPS, which is nothing too exciting, and less than his ’05 performance, but it was more promising as the secondary numbers point to it being a more sustainable performance. Tim Battle with a K rate around 25% is much more exciting that Tim Battle with a K rate in excess of 30%. Tim Battle with a 25% K-rate has a non-zero shot at being Mike Cameron.

What Lies Ahead: Battle will likely return to Tampa to begin 2007 and once again be a starting corner OF as Austin Jackson mans center. If he can maintain a K rate in the neighborhood of 25% of his at bats, Battle MAY be ok. The key to doing that will be to stay aggressive early in the count as he has serious issues hitting with 2-strikes. How well FSL pitchers will be able to exploit this will determine his level of success in the coming year. I’m not hopeful about his performance given that only during August did he do all the things he needs to do to produce offensively, i.e. attack early in the count and stay within his self hitting the ball to the opposite field

Grade: Tim Battle can easily be summed up as your prototypical high-risk, high-reward, 5-tool outfielder. Battle is regarded as excellent defensively, which in addition to his game-changing speeds gives him a greater shot at appearing in the majors than your average A-ball prospect of his ilk, but his bat is a huge question mark. In looking at minor league stats, something that should be acknowledged is that a hitter who walks all the time isn’t always the best thing and such is the case for Battle. He simply does not have the skill set at the moment to be anywhere near effective deep in counts so he is going to have to do what he can early in the count. Keeping this in mind, a low-walk rate should prove beneficial for his career prospects as…he has all the tools. C

Jose Gil #24

Breakdown of the Stupidity

2006-11-22T01:55:00.000-05:00

Here's how the ballots look.

Sheer Idiocy

2006-11-21T15:20:00.000-05:00

Justin Morneau is one of the worst choices for MVP ever. EVER. Not THE worst, but up there.

More later.

Awards and Stuff

2006-11-17T13:01:00.000-05:00

-Chien Ming-Wang finished second in the AL Cy Young voting and Robinson Cano won the AL Silver Slugger for 2B a year after finishing 2nd in the AL RotY race. If these are the guys the farm can produce when it's terrible, the rest of baseball must be terrified of what will come now that the system is on the up and up. I kid, I kid...sort of.

-The MVP is up next and I really, really, really hope Jeter wins, but with everyone and Johan Santana campaigning for the wrong Twin, I'm uneasy about the outcome.

-Baseball America recently posted their Top 20 AFL prospects; Brett Gardner barely made the list at 19th. The Hawaiian Winter Baseball Top 15 was a different story as there were 3 Yankee pitchers in the Top 10. Joba Chamberlain was 1st, Jeff Marquez 4th, and Ian Kennedy 8th. Chamberlain being 1st was kind of expected at this point given the amount of outstanding reviews he's been getting, but I'm glad Marquez ranked as high as he did because he is a favorite of mine and I thought the ugly ERA would cause him to be overlooked.

-After much internal strife, I've decided against ranking Jesus Montero because all I have on him are scouting reports. With the other prospects I am ranking/have ranked there's usually a decent amount of statistical data or I've seen them play or some combination of the two.

-MiLB with their season review for the Yankees.

-Best Buy is stupid. I lined up on Wednesday afternoon at 3:00 PM prepared to wait the 40 or so hours and get my PS3 as I knew they had 26 and I was second in line. Unfortunately, Best Buy decided to have mall security send me, and the 9 other people in line, home 3 hours later. They said they would not allow any lining up until 9PM Thursday night. We asked them why; they said they did not want the line to interfere with customers during the day Thursday. We alerted them to the fact that by creating this 9 PM start time they are only going to worsen the problem with a bottleneck. They did not listen. I arrived at Best Buy at 2PM on Thursday to scope out the situation only to find a bunch of people randomly standing around the grassy area across the parking lot. I returned to Best Buy at 6:30PM to find the group of people, now about 50 strong, standing by the yellow traffic division line 30 feet from Best Buy. By 6:50PM about 40 people, myself included, were standing in a reasonable facsimile of a line by the point where the line was supposed to start at 9PM. I was 14th. The rest of the mass had gone to the opposite entrance hoping to convince Best Buy officials theirs was the official start point. Around 8PM Best Buy workers come out to tell the crowd, which was now about 130 strong, that they did not know how they were going to handle this and that they would have a solution in 5-15 minutes. A Best Buy worker did not return until 9:03PM at which point he said the people who were in line, my group, would be the official leaders of the line. Predictably, everyone outside the line began to shove their way into the line. Mall security and state police officer (singular) were absolutely worthless in ceasing the carnage. After conferencing, the Best Buy workers decided that it would be best to have everyone (250 people at this point) write their name on a piece of paper, put it in a bowl and pick 26 names that can return Friday morning at 8 AM to pick up their PS3s. I did not get a PS3. I called Best Buy this morning and they said their policy in regards to the Wii would be that customers could line up 24 hours in advance, rather than 12. I think I know where I will be at 8AM tomorrow morning.

ESPN.com-MLB-Report: Yankees, Mussina agree on two-year deal

2006-11-15T14:13:00.000-05:00

I'm going to be gone for the next 48 hours or so, so I don't have much time to comment on this, but it seems like a solid deal at face value.

Daisuke

2006-11-13T23:28:00.000-05:00

It appears all but certain that the Red Sox have won the Matsuzaka posting. On the one hand, I'm disappointed the Yanks weren't able to pick him up, on the other hand I think that's an excessive amount of money to be spending just to be able to negotiate with someone so overall I don't feel too terrible. The Red Sox rotation is now potentially an excellent one, but that's assuming Daisuke adapts to the AL smoothly and Josh Beckett rebounds. As I said previously, I now hope to see the Yankees pursue Barry Zito. Something around 4 years 50 million, if possible, would be fitting, but it's almost a certainty that Zito will be seeking/receiving more than that so next year's rotation at the moment is very much up in the air.

UPDATE: No player on Earth is worth 51.1 million to negotiate with unless he's then going to sign for 10 million and 10 years.

NYDN: Yanks set to send Wright to Orioles

2006-11-12T06:20:00.000-05:00

Apparently, the Yankees have all but signed the papers for a deal in which Jaret Wright is expected to go to the Orioles in exchange for right-handed reliever Chris Britton. Britton throws a low 90s fastball and a curveball and like so many young bullpen arms, he's 23, he struggles with consistency. I don't think he's any great shakes now or ever will be, but looks to be of the Scott Proctor mold of fungible bullpen arms and those guys are always nice to have around. More importantly, the Yankee rotation as of 6:23 AM today stands as follows:

1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. The Big Useless™
3. Carl Pavano
4. Mystery Meat
5. Hidden Prize

This has me extremely excited. On the one hand, there's the possibility that the Yankees wouldn't have dealt Wright if they were sure that Matsuzaka was headed elsewhere. On the other hand, even if Matsuzaka isn't secretly being fitted for a Yankee uniform it shows that the Yankees and Cashman are seriously dedicated to improving the team. They could just have easily have kept Wright, as he did perform decently enough in his 5 inning stints for the most part, but rather they are electing to look for better. As far as that relates to this year's free agent market it seems there are only two viable candidates. SG did the analysis in this post and while he came to the conclusion that Zito was amongst a top group, but still under whelming, I would like to see the Yankees make a run at him. Firstly, despite his less than ideal peripherals, Zito has been adept at beating systems that attempt to eliminate the effect of defense because he seems to legitimately allow weaker contact. In addition, I would only be expecting him to post ERA+s in the 115 range and over the last 3 years he has been at 100, 110, and 118. The key to his performance is that he consistently provides around 220 innings and has never missed a start. Such dependency is especially critical for the Yankees going forward because next year's AAA Scranton rotation looks to be:

1. Phil Hughes
2. Humberto Sanchez
3. Tyler Clippard
4. Steve White
5. Darrell Rasner
6. Jeff Karstens

Yeah...for the first time in ages the Yankees project to have a relatively young AAA rotation with guys that have the stuff and performance record to step up when needed and be anything from serviceable to excellent. However, with Phil Hughes being the best of this group the Yankees aren't going to want to push him too much and they're going to be able to avoid doing so they're going to need someone other than Wang to carry a large chunk of the workload. I believe Zito can be that guy and I'm willing to live with the innings where he can't find the strike zone as you can't teach durability...I think. So, my hopeful opening day rotation (accepting that there's nothing that can be done about The Big Useless™ and believing that discussions with Mike Mussina are in fact going very well):

1. Mike Mussina
2. Barry Zito
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. TBU™
5. Pavano

When Pavano is injured walking to the mound for his first start he can then be ably replaced by one of the members of Generation Right-Handed Pitchers™.

#24

2006-11-11T19:36:00.000-05:00

Jose Gil, C, 20
Previously Ranked: 25^th prior to 2006
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus N/R, Baseball America N/A

Physical Ability: Jose Gil is a converted catcher without a standout tool. He has defensive potential, but isn’t maximizing it at the moment due to working out some of the mechanical kicks of being a catcher. On offense he has a pretty swing, but there is not much, if any, loft to it. His swing right now is more contact focused than anything, which somewhat limits his offensive potential. On both sides of the ball he is someone that can get by at the moment, but having seen him play, there seems to be a lot of potential there.

What Happened in ’06: Gil started the year in Charleston with the rest of 2005’s promising GCL standouts, but was quickly demoted. On the one hand, the demotion seems out of hand because it was just 74 ABs into the year, but on the other hand it seems justified in that he was struggling to drive the ball. Gil then re-emerged as part of a tandem C duo with Francisco Cervelli (who would have made this list had I extended it a bit further). At Staten Island, Gil drove the ball a bit better, but still struggled with elevating it as 58.4% of his balls in play were on the ground. As I said, this seems to be a by-product of his swing, which while pretty just does not have much lift to it. Another by-product of his swing and approach, this one positive, is an impressive BB:K ratio of 17:16 at Staten Island. This was in line with his 19:18 in the 2005 GCL, making the 4:15 in his short Charleston stint seem completely out of whack.

What Lies Ahead: I want to say that Gil’s low BABIP is a positive indicator for the future, but I know that it’s a “real” low BABIP based on his approach and speed. Right now, I’m banking on his approach, as far as the numbers and how it looks to me, translating into a more representative performance in 2007. It will be interesting to see where he is placed, as I’m not sure having him and Cervelli serve as tandem C again will help their development. There’s also some hope on my part that he will add more mass to his frame, as he has room to go, and may drive the ball better as a result of this.

Grade: Gil’s physical ability and performance are both solid, but I believe there is A LOT of potential to be tapped. There’s a bunch of guys around his grade when trying to rank these guys and I chose to go with Gil because I have a good gut feeling about him. Cervelli might have been here as well as it seems he has a bit more talent, but having seen both play, Gil’s style strikes me as having an easier time adapting to higher levels, 2006 Charleston notwithstanding. C

Eduardo Nunez #25